Search found 81 matches

by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I think what's kinda funny is that I am not nervous at all riding out a recession if I'm 100% in. I was piling in money starting in 2008 and through the recession. I didn't mind riding it down. Now that the economy is kicking ass, I'm very concerned. It's not the economy, though. It's just that the ...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Perhaps I should have said that I'm not worried about the price, I'm worried about the valuations. I'm not worried about the short term, I'm worried about the intermediate to long term (3-10 years). I'm timing on the scale of years. So, unless I'm exceptionally lucky, there will be fluctuations both...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You are thinking of options. Futures have no strike or premium. The expiration date is mid-June, but I expect to roll this position for a few quarters. The return is the difference between LIBOR and the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq returns more than ~2.7% annualized, I lose money. If it returns less than ...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

But you'd be even better if you were still 100% stocks though. S&P is at ~2900 now. I'm not worried about that. You have to consider the whole strategy. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3,100. I don't even want to time the peak. I want to get away BEFORE sentiment shifts, because when it does, it hap...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Chris42163, 1) And, there is no guarantee that your guess/prediction when to go into the market will work out. You need to be right the second time too. 2) And, for the first 3 months of 2019, my portfolio had gained 8.6%. How did your portfolio do for the first 3 months? This is by doing nothing. ...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

marcopolo, I am genuine trying to understand what is there to be gained by guessing when is the market peaked. As far as I know, it is a piece of useless unreliable information. It is easier and simpler to be prepared all the time. KlangFool As far as I can tell, nobody here is trying to do that. W...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

KlangFool wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:20 pm
Please tell me what is the difference?
It looks to me like 13 - -3 = 16%. I will keep you guys posted for better or worse. I hope the market doesn't stay at extreme valuations where I feel the need to take action. Outside of extremes, I have never and won't make changes.
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

marcopolo, I am genuine trying to understand what is there to be gained by guessing when is the market peaked. As far as I know, it is a piece of useless unreliable information. It is easier and simpler to be prepared all the time. KlangFool As far as I can tell, nobody here is trying to do that. W...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

About 13% in my case in 2018. How much did your 60/40 strategy make? If you're serious about your question, then what you missed is the difference. Is that what you'll miss in the future? No one knows. Only time will tell.
by Chris42163
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

4strings wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:07 am
and this is why you don't time the market...
If you're referring to today's uptick, that's like calling the NBA Finals after the first basket on the first game. :-D
by Chris42163
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 335
Views: 60545

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

yes, I agree. My decision is not turning out well. Hate to break it to you,, but likely that decision and the effect of it the last couple of years leading to a delta of 26% return difference will continue to compound going forward. That gap in return is only going to increase over time. Good luck....
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Possibly not. I am a grad student who is not in my twenties, but it's all-expenses-paid and I still receive my salary while I attend school.
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

my plan will conservatively reach my goal of FI by 44, I am curious about this plan! Aren’t you a twenty-something grad student? Is your plan, “Make a lot of money... retire!”? @letsgobobby, have I said a negative word to you? The answers are No, and no. Even at FI, if I retire, it will only be to ...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

There is no claim that they can afford to permanently sit out the markets if they are wrong for a decade or more. They are really just market-timing, plain and simple. I am always open to reevaluate the model, but until I don't believe valuations are extreme, I will remain out. I could/would sit ou...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@jose :sharebeer
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

So, I'd lose 3-4%/year and would participate if, say 2019 has another 20% upswing in it. This is an interesting idea. To make a better decision about it, I'd have to estimate the probability of a drop, the probability of an upswing, and weigh them against the cost of the puts. It certainly has merit...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Yep, that's fair.
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Nice post @siriusblack @HomerJ, there's nothing wrong with your plan or your logic. I'm sure you'll reach your goals. I think there are rare times when there is a better way, and you think that I'm wrong. No sweat. We'll see how it goes. Nevertheless, I appreciate all of the counter points you've ra...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@marcopolo I agree with everything you just said. In answer to the questions, I'd speculate that he either picked it because it's a nice round number (arbitrarily) or because it had the highest correlation. His data is at least as fine grained as monthly. So, it seems very likely that if he chose 10...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I am not declaring CAPE invalid. I am questioning those who claim that CAPE is valid and a good prediction tool. I'm not saying CAPE is definitely wrong; I'm saying how can you guys believe it's so right? Aren't we just talking past each other? You say it's not a good prediction tool, but also say ...
by Chris42163
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

While I am sure you are familiar with the term "data mining", you seem not to accept or understand how it might apply to CAPE10. I'm actually a data scientist (technically Operations Research Analyst). Were you just being pithy, or were you serious? What are you referring to? The metric? It's basic...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I think we've reached a fundamental difference of opinion on what constitutes a great time to buy stocks. When I look at that chart, I come to a different conclusion. I suspect, based on the detail you have gone into in your posts, that you understand a distribution of possible outcomes. The tech bu...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

There was never a better time to buy after his declaration either. Actually, I disagree with that. It did go much higher, but it also came crashing down. If you look at overall returns, they were positive. But the question you should be asking yourself before deciding if buying was right is: Was th...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

(1) There are very few people who would have stayed out of the market for 13 straight years based on valuations. (2) Of those few people, there are ZERO who would have gotten back in at the bottom of 2009. If one is fanatical and dedicated enough about valuations to sit out that long while his or h...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 8747

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

I'm not suggesting it, and I'm well away from traditional retirement age, but I really like the idea of a 3% portfolio withdrawal rate throughout retirement with no adjustment for inflation. This obviously increases my "number," which means I have to work longer, but I really like the idea of portf...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Depends on the assumptions you make. If you held cash under a mattress from 1996 onward, then sure. If on the other hand you held US treasuries (a very reasonable thing to hold if you "get out" from the equity market) from 1996-2009 and then bought in 2009, then you would have done better than just...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 8747

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

I'm not suggesting it, and I'm well away from traditional retirement age, but I really like the idea of a 3% portfolio withdrawal rate throughout retirement with no adjustment for inflation. This obviously increases my "number," which means I have to work longer, but I really like the idea of portfo...
by Chris42163
Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Thanks for spelling out tour rules, although it is not clear what you mean by "other factors" in your last sentence. What if CAPE bounces around 26 an 35 for the next 20 years, with earnings continuing to grow, and the market marching ever higher, with occasional corrections along the way like we h...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

So basically you are predicting a mix of the G and F funds, Total Bond fund and Money market fund will fair better than equities between mid 2018 and until the buffet indicator <=120% & the Schiller P/E <=25? You now have your sell and rebuy position. Only time will tell if your predictions are acc...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Does higher volatility and lower returns mean equity returns will not be positive? Could lower returns mean equities will return 1-2% real while bonds return 0.1-0.5% real making equities still the better investment? Just a thought. I thought I was over the top in my caveats, but apparently not. No...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

No, it absolutely does not. It's amazing to me that people STILL say this after 20+ years where valuations have been EXTREMELY high, yet returns have also remained high. 20 years ago was 1999. Isn't your assertion that valuations have been "extremely" high the entire time unfair? It was in the low ...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

IMO, the worst part about this thread is the potential for a new investor to read it, internalize it, and then implement a market timing strategy. I don't think we should ever be afraid of people listening to differing viewpoints and using their own reason/experience/judgment to make their own deci...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I am skeptical of any "logic-based strategy" when it comes to timing long term cycles. Ultimately, I think we need to look at valuations and our own circumstances to decide when enough is enough. That's all I have done. "enough is enough" is meant with permanency? As in, "that's it, I've had enough...
by Chris42163
Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

everything is elevated. Is it because of the fed's balance sheet being 4x what it was prior to the recession? I suppose it could just be high liquidity, but then, why isn't GDP and inflation in line? I'm scratching my head on current valuations, but how many people really knew about the underlying ...
by Chris42163
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

everything is elevated. Is it because of the fed's balance sheet being 4x what it was prior to the recession? I suppose it could just be high liquidity, but then, why isn't GDP and inflation in line? I'm scratching my head on current valuations, but how many people really knew about the underlying c...
by Chris42163
Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Damned if I do, damned if I don't. I'm in the accumulation phase at 60/40 right now, and as the market goes up, I'll DCA out down to 0/100, if valuations go that far (not much farther). I can't sleep while aggressively invested with the Buffett indicator and CAPE at extremes.
by Chris42163
Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation Informed Indexing
Replies: 37
Views: 2405

Re: Valuation Informed Indexing

I just came across this article: https://pensionpartners.com/just-how-overvalued-are-us-equities/ I think it's a great bit of analysis on valuation informed investing. Some of the charts aren't clearly explained, but I think the rows indicate top decile valuations using a CAPE/10, CAPE/9, CAPE/8, et...
by Chris42163
Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation Informed Indexing
Replies: 37
Views: 2405

Re: Valuation Informed Indexing

Why doesn't anyone question the idea of investing in stock regardless of their valuation? That seems pretty stupid to me. I mean, staying invested at 90th percentile valuations, maybe the smart play. Staying invested above the 99th percentile seems ridiculous.
by Chris42163
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

finite_difference wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:00 pm
If you are conservative and nervous that’s fine. Set your AA to 25/75 and find better things to do with your time.
Adjusting AA is what I'm doing now, but it's still market timing.
by Chris42163
Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

So let's say it keeps looking up in 2019 (similar to 2017), would 2020 a loss year similar to 2018? Folks around here might be getting out of the market one year early and foregoing 10-20% gain? Then again, I avoided a 13% loss doing it last year. So, 2019 has been a year of significant gains alrea...
by Chris42163
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 7747

Re: Your opinion on debt?

Current interest rates and inflation make long term mortgages attractive. At ~4%, the more leverage you have on a house, the better. If you figure inflation, and thus the increase in real estate absolute value, at 2+% indefinitely, and you got the house at fair market value, then the cost of that lo...
by Chris42163
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 431
Views: 62572

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

It occurs that we're going through a major disruption in the industry we're talking about. As cars start driving themselves, services like lyft & uber will be the norm. They will own all of the cars. No need for expensive parking in congested downtown areas, because the cars will drive off to the ne...
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the people going to cash, how long?
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: For the people going to cash, how long?

Extreme market valuations have got me on edge, which turned out to be a good thing, last year. The other part is that my goal is to retire from the military and be FI in ~7 years.
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the people going to cash, how long?
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: For the people going to cash, how long?

SovereignInvestor wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:40 am
As an insirance holding company BRK may lean more toward cash anyway to have sufficient liquidity if a very severe natural catastrophe were to occur.
That's true. If memory serves, Buffett has said that BRK will maintain a minimum of $20B to prevent a liquidity issue in a major catastrophe.
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the people going to cash, how long?
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: For the people going to cash, how long?

He has said that. Meanwhile, Berkshire's capital stash is at all time highs, because he's also said that he can't find any value in our current markets. His most recent annual letter indicated that he's looking overseas. He's not the end-all be-all, but I also keep an eye on BRK's cash stash to see...
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the people going to cash, how long?
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: For the people going to cash, how long?

He has said that. Meanwhile, Berkshire's capital stash is at all time highs, because he's also said that he can't find any value in our current markets. His most recent annual letter indicated that he's looking overseas. He's not the end-all be-all, but I also keep an eye on BRK's cash stash to see ...
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 18346

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

Good advice I've already passed on to my son. Aim for FI by 40. That is SO tough. I graduated from West Point; so, I had no student loans. I've made a good salary by most standards. I started clearing 6 figures by around 30 y/o (2012). Even prior to that, during two deployments where expenses were ...
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 431
Views: 62572

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

Let's look at just one of these levers, not owning a car. Assume your car costs $10k per year (u get a nice one you've seen 10,000 commercials/billboards of). You buy it when u get your first job out of college at age 22. If u opt to bike instead of drive the annual 10,000 in savings earning 8% ove...
by Chris42163
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the people going to cash, how long?
Replies: 20
Views: 3367

Re: For the people going to cash, how long?

I'm 37. I'm typically aggressive. Was 100% stocks from late 2008 - Oct, 2018. Made a bundle. Avoided the hit in Q4 2018. Was fully back in for the gains this year up to S&P @ 2810. Then went to AA 60/40. It's still gone up. I will gradually DCA to a lower stock AA as it continues upwards. At 35+ and...
by Chris42163
Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101047

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Here is the answer to any of those questions or similar:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/