Search found 91 matches

by welsie
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions - Why Isn't Time In the Market a Part of the Formula?
Replies: 30
Views: 3812

Re: Pensions - Why Isn't Time In the Market a Part of the Formula?

Considering how underfunded PERS and STRS are, I don't think you are being short changed. Since your contributions don't fully fund your retirement it is California taxpayers who actually carrying the "time in market" balance forward in time. My city just increased sales taxes by 0.25% just to cover...
by welsie
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camera system to watch the nanny
Replies: 70
Views: 4496

Re: Good camera system to watch the babysitter

It's interesting how so many people on this forum said its creepy to put a camera system to watch the babysitter in your house. Of course the camera will be in plain site and the babysitter will know that a camera is watching them. The camera system will only be areas were the kids are allowed to g...
by welsie
Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds
Replies: 68
Views: 5060

Re: Prenuptial agreement for moderately successful 30 year olds

I don't quite understand your rationale for the prenup. You are planning on working part time after the baby comes? I mean your income will drop and she will be the breadwinner...but you want to keep all of the premarriage assets you have separate? That seems like a very weird setup. So to be clear,...
by welsie
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?
Replies: 144
Views: 15528

Re: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?

Compounding IS a mathematical certainty. There is no compounding with stocks (if we disregard dividend reinvestment component). That is sort of misleading. Economic prosperity, whether for an individual, a firm or a country, is driven over time by productivity. This is the accumulation of human cap...
by welsie
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 929

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

So if the efficient market hypothesis is wrong, there may be a big potential benefit by my higher exposure to non-U.S. (in particular emerging), if it is right...well I hold at world cap, so I win either way. This has not been a win so far. We do have a pretty long history to look at, and it's not ...
by welsie
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 929

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

Seems that most International investors have a third to a half (or more!) of their equities in their home market. US investors are only a fraction of the total world investors. Yeah, but we are among the wealthiest investors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capi...
by welsie
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 929

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

Hi all, Here's a theoretical question that's been bugging me: In an efficient market, the combined global wisdom of all market participants has currently generated a US to International split of about 55% to 45%. How does home country bias impact this? Could it be that the US market is actually mor...
by welsie
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?
Replies: 15
Views: 929

Re: Home country bias - does it skew US/Int allocation?

Check out some of the numbers here: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-home-country-bias-ubiquitous Seems that most International investors have a third to a half (or more!) of their equities in their home market. US investors are only a fraction of the total world investors...
by welsie
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1146
Views: 320227

Re: Share your story of how you got wealthy

1) marry the right partner I disagree. There is no way to know if your partner will remain financially sound, and the odds are against you. Past performance is no indicator of future results. It is almost like saying make sure if you’re buying individual stocks to buy one that will go up. Instead, ...
by welsie
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1146
Views: 320227

Re: Share your story of how you got wealthy

1) marry the right partner I disagree. There is no way to know if your partner will remain financially sound, and the odds are against you. Past performance is no indicator of future results. It is almost like saying make sure if you’re buying individual stocks to buy one that will go up. Instead, ...
by welsie
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead
Replies: 61
Views: 6049

Re: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead

quote You don't need an independent lab, do you think the municipal water agency is lying? Put away your tin foil hats everyone. endquote They don't need to be lying per se (and the folks in Flint certainly did), but testing requirements for muni water do not cover a whole lot of things that are kn...
by welsie
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 84
Views: 11519

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

It is only a loss if you sell. I wish people would stop spouting this nonsense as its serves to make people feel better with no basis in reality. Just because you don't realize a loss doesn't mean its not there. Your portfolio is worth what someone is willing to pay for it right now. Nothing more, ...
by welsie
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 84
Views: 11519

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

With $10 million, any strategy you pick will be fine if you aren't spending $500k per year. This might not be the best place to get confirmation for your "wait for the big drop and then I'll add stocks" strategy. Thanks for the reply and advice. Our spending is only at $80k per year, and that could...
by welsie
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 84
Views: 11519

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

Just as a high level comment. Good, boring news doesn't sell. If someone says, "Global economic growth will keep chugging along, through ups and downs, at about 5%-7% in real terms; so invest based on your risk tolerance and enjoy the ride." Well very few people will read that article, watch that sh...
by welsie
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead
Replies: 61
Views: 6049

Re: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead

You don't need an independent lab, do you think the municipal water agency is lying? Put away your tin foil hats everyone. Tell that to the folks in Flint, Michigan. They lying was at multiple government levels, from what I understand. I'm not suggesting OP has water problems like Flint did. But if...
by welsie
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance tax question
Replies: 9
Views: 1056

Re: Inheritance tax question

If the inherited funds were pretax, federal and state income taxes will be due. You don't pay Federal tax on an inheritance, estate tax is paid by the estate. People conflate the term "estate" tax with "inheritance" tax, there is no distinction, the tax is paid by the estate on the Federal level. T...
by welsie
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead
Replies: 61
Views: 6049

Re: (Water Filtration System) Miracle we are all not dead

We moved into a new house a few weeks back and our new fridge does not have a water dispenser. We've been buying bottled water to drink and that got me researching these types of solutions. Researching water filters is what led me down this road and I ended up googling for a local company that coul...
by welsie
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1st Time Home Buyer: Advice?
Replies: 6
Views: 571

Re: 1st Time Home Buyer: Advice?

Looking to purchase 1st time home. My current assumption is that a home is not an investment (does not produce cash flow) but rather a shelter whose price “may” rise in the future, is this correct? How much home can I purchase safety with below assumptions? I think home prices are ridiculous in Por...
by welsie
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

Re: Bonds and Investing

If interest rates rise, the price of the asset has to drop so the yield is the same as that in the market. So imagine you have a 3 year bond with a 3% interest rate which cost $100 (thus paying $3 per year). If tomorrow interest rates rose to 6% for a new issue of that 3 year bond (holding all else...
by welsie
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics Question
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: Economics Question

So I've been reading articles that stocks and economy are flashing warning signs for recession not seen since 2007. As found here - http://fortune.com/2019/05/30/recession-predictor-bond-market/ My question is this - if indicators are flashing this, why don't the economy masterminds just do things ...
by welsie
Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3826

Re: Bonds and Investing

I throw myself at the mercy of the court here! So far this has turned out well. I realize it could change any minute. I have my 401K's, extra cash (non emergency) and 529's all in the S&P. Kids are 7 and 12. Quite frankly I just don't understand bond funds. I understand buying a bond from an organi...
by welsie
Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4881

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

Perform the best you can at this job but *very soon* start looking for your next, better job. Temp agency work does not usually include subsidized health insurance, so you are seeing the full cost passed on to the employee. Keep working hard and hopefully your next position will have better pay and...
by welsie
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4881

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

I'm technically hired by a temp agency, ..... How is this normal? You are working at temp agency with crappy benefits. The competition for the work you are doing is likely a call center in India where they get paid a fraction of what you are paid which is why the total compensation is so low. Many ...
by welsie
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4881

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

I mean, it doesn't seem that crazy. My total medical and dental cost is almost $1,200 a pay period (employer + myself) for a family of 3, pay period is twice a month. Thankfully my employer cover 2/3's of it, but good healthcare is expensive. So you pay about 400 for a family of 3 biweekly, I pay 3...
by welsie
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4881

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

I mean, it doesn't seem that crazy. My total medical and dental cost is almost $1,200 a pay period (employer + myself) for a family of 3, pay period is twice a month. Thankfully my employer cover 2/3's of it, but good healthcare is expensive. Yep. Total cost of insurance premiums for my family of 3...
by welsie
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?
Replies: 63
Views: 4881

Re: Paying half of my paycheck on health insurance?

Good afternoon my friends, Found a job at a call center of M***** S****** that pays 19 an hour, I'm technically hired by a temp agency, so the temp agency pays me to perform the work at MS. In the medical insurance enrollment process, I found that the premium is obscene! 286 for health insurance, 2...
by welsie
Fri May 31, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3346

Re: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?

I do not wear a tin foil hat. I would never voluntarily surrender my DNA profile to a commercial entity; the possibility that it could be used in the future for purposes I never intended which might prove injurious to me in some way are too great. Ok, I will bite, how could it prove injurious? Ther...
by welsie
Fri May 31, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3346

Re: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?

Also keep in mind that their health tests are not complete. They tell you this, but it is not a substitute for genetic testing for family planning purposes, or your general health. For example, 23 and me the Tay-Sachs detection doesn't pick up on the French Canadian variant. When we did genetic test...
by welsie
Fri May 31, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3346

Re: 23 and me vs. ancestry- thoughts?

I know that there are threads on this and was just perusing one from a year ago here. I do have some reservations about using one's personal info/DNA 'out there' to 'belong' to a company etc., but am starting to consider it nevertheless out of curiosity as I have privacy minded friends who I was su...
by welsie
Fri May 31, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

OP, 1) We agree that if your portfolio is 100 times your annual expense, AA does not matter. 100/0 will work too. 2) To a larger extent, if your portfolio is 50 times your annual expense, 100/0 will work too. 3) Then, the only times we may think about volatility risk to your portfolio is when your ...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

Is there a particular reason why people focus on percentages for AA to bonds? This seems a bit counter-intuitive, as having a hedge against volatility (especially in retirement) is something you assess in absolute terms, not in percentages. For example, if you have a burn/spend of $50K a year, and ...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

Is there a particular reason why people focus on percentages for AA to bonds? This seems a bit counter-intuitive, as having a hedge against volatility (especially in retirement) is something you assess in absolute terms, not in percentages. For example, if you have a burn/spend of $50K a year, and ...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

It's subjective in a way. But objective in another way. IMHO. 25% bonds - aggressive, alot of market risk and market returns 50% bonds - moderate, optimizing withdrawals mostly 75% bonds - conservative, older, perhaps rich, stocks should hedge inflation ... Yeah, but that is sort of my point. Suppo...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

It just seems odd that people focus so much on rules of thumb to determine percentage based AA towards bonds. Is there something I am missing? It's subjective in a way. But objective in another way. IMHO. 25% bonds - aggressive, alot of market risk and market returns 50% bonds - moderate, optimizin...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

Re: AA to Bonds

It just seems odd that people focus so much on rules of thumb to determine percentage based AA towards bonds. Is there something I am missing? It's subjective in a way. But objective in another way. IMHO. 25% bonds - aggressive, alot of market risk and market returns 50% bonds - moderate, optimizin...
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Donor Advised Fund Question
Replies: 9
Views: 628

Re: Donor Advised Fund Question

Also, if you lump your donations in a particular year you may itemize. We used to itemize every year, our current plan is to make a DAF donation once every 3 years and take the standard on the other 2 years.
by welsie
Thu May 30, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA to Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1453

AA to Bonds

Is there a particular reason why people focus on percentages for AA to bonds? This seems a bit counter-intuitive, as having a hedge against volatility (especially in retirement) is something you assess in absolute terms, not in percentages. For example, if you have a burn/spend of $50K a year, and y...
by welsie
Wed May 29, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying treasuries other than ultra short term?
Replies: 45
Views: 3152

Re: Buying treasuries other than ultra short term?

5y treasuries are yielding 2.00% at the moment. You will pay Federal Income Tax on this interest while inflation is about 2%. So, not only are you earning zero real returns, but you are in effect, paying a wealth tax on top of that. Why would you lock in these terms? I'd rather have the reinvestmen...
by welsie
Wed May 29, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 14045

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I would assume for most portfolios this is less than the dividend/interest rate for a stock/bond fund. So yeah, if you are taking less than the dividend/interest of your holdings, they will continue to grow over the long term. They is not just "prudent", it is probably overly conservative, unless yo...
by welsie
Thu May 23, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the housing market starting to collapse?
Replies: 122
Views: 13390

Re: Is the housing market starting to collapse?

The housing market can be cyclical without collapsing. That is like saying because the S&P 500 is down today it must mean the stock market is collapsing. At least locally for me (in Los Angeles), I noticed housing prices shoot up over the last few years, people see this signal and list their houses,...
by welsie
Thu May 23, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1430

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

no, if inflation goes up, interest rates go up and then MM Rates go up. We could easily be in a situation like around 2009 when a MM was paying 5.5% interest, and then I am making money by not paying my mortgage. How is that inconsistent with what I just said? He's arguing that fixed income yields ...
by welsie
Thu May 23, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1430

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

Everyone needs to be careful about discussing inflation in a clinical, abstract sense. The real impact of inflation for you is whether your wage increases nominally due to inflation and whether your average cost of living is increasing. The CPI is a basket, if your expenses are dominated by a fixed...
by welsie
Thu May 23, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1430

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

Everyone needs to be careful about discussing inflation in a clinical, abstract sense. The real impact of inflation for you is whether your wage increases nominally due to inflation and whether your average cost of living is increasing. The CPI is a basket, if your expenses are dominated by a fixed...
by welsie
Thu May 23, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as part of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 1430

Re: Mortgage as part of AA

Everyone needs to be careful about discussing inflation in a clinical, abstract sense. The real impact of inflation for you is whether your wage increases nominally due to inflation and whether your average cost of living is increasing nominally. The CPI is a basket, if your expenses are dominated b...
by welsie
Mon May 20, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 19747

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

I think the bigger question is how involved you will be as parents. If you are outsourcing education entirely, then send them to a good private school, if you plan on being actively involved in their enrichment, then I don't know if it matters. If you are well off, you are going to have enrichment a...
by welsie
Tue May 14, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SEC Yield vs Distribution
Replies: 2
Views: 767

Re: SEC Yield vs Distribution

Thanks, this is a great explanation.
by welsie
Mon May 13, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers in art
Replies: 91
Views: 5193

Re: Careers in art

You can make a perfectly good living doing graphic design. Like all things, it depends what the person does with the degree. There is a big difference in income between a middle school art teacher and someone doing animation for the Toy Story 4. If you just look around on TV, half the commercials ar...
by welsie
Mon May 13, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SEC Yield vs Distribution
Replies: 2
Views: 767

SEC Yield vs Distribution

Any reason why the SEC yield shows 1.95% for VCADX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/vcadx) while the distributions have been over 2.6% for the last 18 months? If you look at VBTLX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/vbtlx) the SEC yield shows 2.9%, which i...
by welsie
Mon May 06, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 8058

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Other have already said this, but 55% market cap is not some magic number. This is an apples to oranges comparison. If globally the U.S. is responsible for 42% of revenues, then if you want to hold a basket of stocks that adequate track the global market, then you do want the US of 42% of revenues,...