Search found 385 matches

by fwellimort
Sat May 09, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very Low Student Loan Interest Rate - Invest Instead?
Replies: 34
Views: 1922

Re: Very Low Student Loan Interest Rate - Invest Instead?

It's a variable rate. I would pay off personally because I don't know the future. You shouldn't compare rates by just the number itself. You have to compare by the risk free rate. This is the risk free rate: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.asp...
by fwellimort
Sat May 09, 2020 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IE, Chrome or Firefox, that is the question.
Replies: 53
Views: 3074

Re: IE, Chrome or Firefox, that is the question.

TL;DR: If you advocate for privacy, go Firefox. If not, go Chrome. If you care about privacy and all, then Firefox with add-ons like containers/uBlock Origin/HTTPS Everywhere. If you care about performance for everyday needs, without a doubt, Chrome. The problem with other browsers is that Chrome wi...
by fwellimort
Fri May 08, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my CPA overcharging me?
Replies: 24
Views: 3197

Re: Is my CPA overcharging me?

People don't work for free.

Every hour you contact him is an extra say 2~3 hours in his own finite time.

If you don't like his service, move to a different CPA afterwards.
by fwellimort
Wed May 06, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard have target date funds lower then .15% Expense Ratios?
Replies: 4
Views: 698

Re: Does Vanguard have target date funds lower then .15% Expense Ratios?

If you count institutional shares, Fidelity Target Date Funds are probably the lowest cost. Some of those can get ridiculously low cost in expense (and especially if your company has a special deal with those Commingled Pool Class funds [my company is 0.06% for target date index funds]). And I'm con...
by fwellimort
Tue May 05, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire SPY & VOO
Replies: 11
Views: 952

Re: Berkshire SPY & VOO

I am assuming liquidity.

For instant liquidity with such large sums of money, SPY is the way to go.
Same for options and all.

VOO is ideal for long term retail investors but for institutions that need to get out quick, SPY's liquidity might be worth the extra premium (near non-existant regardless).
by fwellimort
Tue May 05, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11418

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

By some dumb luck I bought AMD in July 31 of 2019. I have vastly outperformed the market simply due to the luck of that 1 stock. (I for the past year owned only 2 stocks: Berkshire and AMD) But did I buy AMD after knowing the fundamentals and all? No. The truth is, I just got lucky. Look. 1 in 4~5 i...
by fwellimort
Tue May 05, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11418

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I'm not surprised. Young people probably bought a lot of tech stocks in this epidemic. By tech stocks, I mean companies like Microsoft and Amazon. Those have done very well. Also, it's not "impossible" to beat index funds. Index funds just bring average returns. Nothing more. Nothing less. With low ...
by fwellimort
Mon May 04, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 223
Views: 13633

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Honestly, I don't see a case in the near future of Disney stocks not going up (people get bored and want to be entertained and currently, Disney is like the only real source for entertainment in this industry). I don't know whether it will outperform the market but if your goal is to just 'make mone...
by fwellimort
Mon May 04, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard website - hack or ? [Website page displays source code]
Replies: 15
Views: 1109

Re: Vanguard website - hack or ?

Download Malwarebyte's Anti-Malware and run a complete scan. Then, run Hitman Pro free 30 day trial. Then if you use Chrome, follow the directions here: https://support.google.com/chrome/answer/2765944?co=GENIE.Platform%3DDesktop&hl=en follow "Remove unwanted programs" and "Reset your browser settin...
by fwellimort
Mon May 04, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market is 100% passive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2078

Re: What if the market is 100% passive?

If market is 100% passive, then you will never see a price change in any stocks regardless of the news.

In other words... it isn't going to happen. There's just too much money to be made in this industry by the top active traders.
by fwellimort
Sun May 03, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Warren Buffett follow his own advice?
Replies: 15
Views: 2329

Re: Why doesn't Warren Buffett follow his own advice?

It's difficult to do your job properly when the government keeps interfering in the middle and choosing the outcome. Imagine playing a game of Monopoly and whenever you get ahead, some 3rd party entity gives every other player a house. That said, I think on a risk adjusted basis, Berkshire as an ent...
by fwellimort
Sun May 03, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Warren Buffett follow his own advice?
Replies: 15
Views: 2329

Re: Why doesn't Warren Buffett follow his own advice?

Berkshire Hathaway's goal is to "buy out" businesses. Warren Buffett is just doing his job. His wife does not have a full time job picking out businesses to purchase. If everyone indexed, indexing wouldn't work. And to get "filthy rich", indexing is a poor way to go. Big wealth in one's lifetime is ...
by fwellimort
Fri May 01, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Grad Gift Ideas
Replies: 18
Views: 988

Re: College Grad Gift Ideas

An informative book like Boglehead's Guide to Investing or Little Book of Common Sense Investing. I guess realistically, cash is the best answer (at least 'realistically' cause it lets the receiver be able to purchase what he/she really needs). And a hand written letter (no matter the gift). And sup...
by fwellimort
Fri May 01, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?
Replies: 33
Views: 2838

Re: A 40% drop could hit by next year , FACT or FICTION?

With the route FED is going nowadays, I am starting to doubt it. If this was back in the 20th century of US, our stock market would have literally crashed by now. But with J Powell and his good old printer, who knows. The government has pretty much (indirectly) guaranteed that the stock market will ...
by fwellimort
Fri May 01, 2020 4:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks, better in Roth IRA or taxable account?
Replies: 21
Views: 1600

Re: Individual stocks, better in Roth IRA or taxable account?

Roth IRA. With large broad low cost index fund, you really have no incentive to sell except when you need the money. With single stocks, you will have to sell at one point (e.g. half the S&P500 will be replaced the next decade according to Moody's). You will create a lot more taxable events with sin...
by fwellimort
Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 6076

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

Leverages work well most of the time. If you understand 9 out of 10 times in your life, it will probably work greatly in your favor and 1 out of 10 times it can blow up sometime in your investment career, go for it. Many research papers already state the optimal leverage in the past has been somewhe...
by fwellimort
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intel vs AMD Processor Equivalents
Replies: 28
Views: 1881

Re: Intel vs AMD Processor Equivalents

The questions you will have to answer is: 1. Is this laptop going to stay at home in a desk or move around a lot. How old are the kids. If the kids are elementary/middle, 13' might make the most sense. If high school, 13/14'. Is this laptop going to be moved occasionally or a lot (e.g. backpacks or ...
by fwellimort
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has any recent events changed your mind on corporate buybacks.
Replies: 5
Views: 483

Re: Has any recent events changed your mind on corporate buybacks.

Buybacks when used properly are far better for investors than dividend payments. One instance is the method Berkshire Hathaway does its buybacks. The problem is today's abuse of corporate buybacks. Buyback is just one of the tools a company has. Whether the tool is used properly or not does not inva...
by fwellimort
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...
Replies: 36
Views: 2116

Re: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...

According to portfolio visualizer, $10k in total u.s. market in Mar 2000 would have risen to $27k by Mar 2020. Not sure how taxes may impact that, but seems like it definitely more than doubled, and that was from a pretty high peak in Mar 2000 and a pretty big dip in Mar 2020. Ah yes, I was wrong w...
by fwellimort
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...
Replies: 36
Views: 2116

Re: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...

All good things to know. Here is my only question. If I fully anticipate holding 20 years, I wonder if it makes more sense to just put in stock market. But then I think part of my rationale for the EE bond is as a hedge against market underperformance (and maybe partly principal conservation). Has ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There are only 2 U.S. Companies Rated AAA, Higher Than U.S. Government Bonds, in 1992 there were 98 AAA companies
Replies: 7
Views: 1640

Re: There are only 2 U.S. Companies Rated AAA, Higher Than U.S. Government Bonds, in 1992 there were 98 AAA companies

This was published 4 years ago, do you have updated numbers? I think the numbers are still the same for U.S. Companies (unless you include Tennessee Valley Authority) except in 2019, Moody's has for now issued a possible downgrade to Johnson & Johnson. In other words, it might be the case that Micr...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market
Replies: 76
Views: 3683

Re: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market

Setting aside the specific goal for 2019, he told me his overall goal. His overall goal is to maximize his kid's inheritance. My overall goal is to maximize returns. So our ultimate goal is the same. I tried to illustrate why getting below market returns by actively trading is not going toward his ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Highest yield on a safe 3 year investment of 25K
Replies: 12
Views: 1322

Re: Highest yield on a safe 3 year investment of 25K

I'd probably take a little risk in this environment. Put 5k in VTI and 20k in a 3yr CD. I personally wouldn't. Who knows how much economic repercussions we might have after this epidemic. You know.. once all this stimulus package ends and the average Joe finally comes to a realization that his job ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4885

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

By definition, a market beating strategy cannot be scalable. Once you become the market, who do you beat? Renaissance is a long way from becoming the market. The global stock market was ~$90 trillion at the end of 2019. With a 37% return it'll get there in under 30 years. It's actually about 65~70%...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market
Replies: 76
Views: 3683

Re: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market

I think this may be the best advice I've gotten on how to convince someone. It's counter-intuitive, at least to me. Do you ever get a question like "I want to buy ABC stock, what do you think?" In this type of situation, do you just divert the conversation to what you do by saying "I just stick it ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market
Replies: 76
Views: 3683

Re: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market

Main Question: How you do talk sense into a person that believes they are "making money" when they are not beating the market? Has anyone had a similar conversation? If so, were you able to convince the person that not beating the market is essentially "losing money?" If so, how? Maybe your friend ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market
Replies: 76
Views: 3683

Re: "Making money" by actively trading... but not beating the market

It's one of those things I try not to understand either. But hey... as long as you are making money, 8-) One of my family members really doesn't understand why "beating the market" has to be a benchmark on the stock market. The reasoning is something in the lines of: "most people my age can't even a...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4885

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

He may end up owing hundreds of millions more. The IRS recently ruled against Renaissance for using an illegal tax avoidance scheme to convert short term gains to long term gains. One argument more that the whole fund is a scam. No. It's called taking advantage of vague wording. Let's say a lot of ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive
Replies: 75
Views: 4192

Re: Computers - Solid State Drive vs. Hard Disk Drive

An SSD is the best bang-for-buck upgrade you can make on a computer. More so than a faster processor, more memory, etc. It makes everything feel instant. No more waiting while the hard drive grinds away. The SSD can handle much higher concurrent loads, so you can multitask without disk I/O holding ...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 Feature Updates - Install When Available or Wait?
Replies: 13
Views: 751

Re: Windows 10 Feature Updates - Install When Available or Wait?

Nothing major. There's not going to be much difference if any for day to day users. For developers, WSL 2 With a Linux Kernel might be worth looking at in the new update. I wonder when the new Windows Terminal will be finalized. That's probably the biggest single update for developers. Other than th...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6688

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

Cruise line stocks are on sale right now...why not REALLY roll the dice? I would rather roll my dice on something that has a balance sheet that isn't so negative. That said, if I had to pick a sector right now for the next few years, I would put my money on cyber security. With increase in work fro...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6688

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

Consider this: the people on this board who work at those companies hold total market funds. What do you know that they don't? You can say that for any company that outperformed the market though. If I knew looking back, I woulda leveraged as much as possible on the company I work at. And even then...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6688

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

1 in 5 long term single stocking picking holders beat the market.
If you believe you will be in the 1 in 5, go ahead.

Who knows.
Personally, I think if you have half a million, I would do 0~10% on single stocks and 90+% on a 3 fund portfolio.
Up to you.
by fwellimort
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10584

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

So play this out for me, seriously. If we begin traveling to a place of hyper-inflation, what do we do to protect our assets? What investments would help you, personally, here??? We hope inflation hedged bonds actually do their jobs. And buy inflation protected securities like TIPS or I Bonds. Or b...
by fwellimort
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4885

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

Supposedly they are in an argument with the feds about taxes....a $1B+ tax liability. If you look at the cases for why IRS goes for Ren Tech, it honestly looks like an excuse from the IRS side to earn more tax. Ren Tech didn't do anything 'illegal' per se but rather take advantage of loop holes in ...
by fwellimort
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4885

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

RenTech is quite transparent unlike most hedge funds. The company hires nobel/fields medal people + top phds only to have fun with their own side money (yes, the fund was made for themselves, not for others). It has quite an interesting history in that it was doing high freq trading before anyone el...
by fwellimort
Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem
Replies: 56
Views: 4885

Re: Renaissance Says Quant Models Misfired During March Mayhem

I thought everyone knew about how Renaissance Tech operated. The Medallion Fund brings investors in due to the ~66~80% pre-fee return (39% after-fee) since 1988. Then from there investors realize they can't invest in the Medallion Fund so they instead invest in Institutional Equities Fund and Instit...
by fwellimort
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are Index Funds bad investment during these situations ?
Replies: 31
Views: 2521

Re: Are Index Funds bad investment during these situations ?

If markets go down over time, index funds are horrible investments. If markets go up over time, index funds are great investments. If markets move sideways over time, eh, you fine. If you can know the future (and also know the rate of return), index funds are good or bad investments. Considering non...
by fwellimort
Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20839

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Go type in Google Trends "stocks" or "stock market" and so on.

It literally looks like a bubble. Add that with FED infinite money, who knows.

We might see a massive crash AFTER the epidemic or none at all.

Crazy times we live in. :greedy
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 2091

Re: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts

So is your stance that (1) there has not been time to determine whether the strategies employed by any currently active fund managers and AI traders are better than the market but (2) there has been enough time to show that trend-following is probably superior? Correct me if I've got that wrong. I'...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market reacting poorly to plunging retail sales and manufacturing today?
Replies: 32
Views: 2447

Re: Why is the market reacting poorly to plunging retail sales and manufacturing today?

No one knows here.

Knowing the future is not.. an easy feat.
I myself don't have a crystal ball.

Markets can go 10% this week. It can crash 30% this week. Who knows.
Maybe markets can close for a few days next week.

Don't think too much.
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 2091

Re: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts

A lot of variables changed since past research papers about market timing. The biggest issues with market timing on research papers were: 1. Fees 2. Taxes 3. Limitations of consistent trading: e.g. washsales, etc. With these major issues gone, who knows. There's no real academia research done in tod...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4555

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

Newsletter writer sells you market timing advice at $35 per month, so then all those hedge fund managers with their expensive degrees from Ivy leagues and hefty pay are overpaid. I have no idea of this newsletter but I will say this. Ivy league degrees mean nothing. I have a degree from Columbia Un...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 2091

Re: How bad is market timing? Some thoughts

I am assuming those willing to 'market time' here are doing so with their free times as hobbies. If they take joy over the challenge and don't think of spending 1/5/10/20/30 hours a week as a chore all their lives, then :happy . There's good enough evidence that some can market time if you follow un...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4555

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

I was hoping that a quant would understand how little value in-sample backtesting has, but apparently that is too much to ask for these days. All investing when it comes to 'pricing' is done with data from the past. Anyways, I'm not a fan of many of these 'simple' algorithms. If I were to go "marke...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant
Replies: 106
Views: 4555

Re: "Marketing timing" comments from a quant

There are ways to get a larger return than the market without beating the market. One obvious instance is leveraging. You get negative alpha (you will always "lose to the market") after fees/decay but will probably, say 95 times out of a 100, get higher total returns in your lifetime (many times, mu...
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]
Replies: 190
Views: 24800

Re: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]

Marcus no penalty CD is still 1.70%.

I would put the money there while you can.
by fwellimort
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Government stimulus payments]
Replies: 355
Views: 28135

Re: [Government stimulus payments]

April 14th 2020 I'm doing something very un-Boglehead like. Because I don't need the $1200 and I don't consider it my "money" (I already have a stupidly high emergency fund for this epidemic), I am using the $1200 as an insurance for my portfolio. $1200 worth of SPXS 3x bear S&P500 If I am wrong, I ...
by fwellimort
Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20839

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Single stocks does not fall under the remit of passive investing https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/passiveinvesting.asp Passive investing broadly refers to a buy-and-hold portfolio strategy for long-term investment horizons, with minimal trading in the market. Index investing is perhaps the most...
by fwellimort
Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20839

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I’m very pleased to hear that there are lots of people who disagree with EMH. The more market timers there are , the more us passive “sharks” can eat their underperformance and turn it into long term gains :sharebeer You don't have to agree with EMH to be a passive investor :sharebeer Especially si...