Bogleheads.org

You're being sensible. Since you are saving 15% of your income towards a house, you're coming out ahead. Waiting until after you have a kid or two is also very very sensible.

We have 1 baby girl and a boy on the way in the summer. We are renters and face the same pressure. I think it's a deeply embedded mass culture belief.

You also only have to gain by waiting since you are saving the housing market can't get any worse for buyers, only better at some point.

SmallSaver wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:12 am

YoungSisyphus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:12 am Thought I would plug a blog that I have found to be helpful for RE insights: CalculatedRisk. He has a free newsletter and it has been the most data driven analysis I have found for the RE market.

If you like him, I recommend Mike Simonsen (Altos Research) and Logan Mohtashami (HousingWire), but you'll have to use Twitter. They each have their own angle, but all are very data driven and good at cutting through the noise.

I would also plug Altos & Calculated Risk.

There have been downturns that effected Boston RE; GFC, early 90s. Maybe the top 5% wealthiest towns weren't effected as much, but that would be the case anywhere. So I hesitate to agree with the predictions based on Boston invincibility.

I'm already resigned to the fact that we will probably punt on the home search this year again. We are expecting our 2nd kid in June.

Thankfully we will be able to save money this and next year and our savings will grow with a decent interest rate...it may increase the home price we can afford.

I know things can change but its hard to see things being drastically different this time next year.

Our plan B for the next 2 years is to keep renting...

I would say at least 20% but you didn't mention what is the price range of homes you would be considering.

In the Boston Suburbs where median home prices are average or above for the metro area; inventory is tight. Its like one good home in a price bracket for sale at a time in a town so far this year, so they sell fast and I'm sure there are multiple offers. There have been very occasional values out there over the past 3 months where a home needs a bit of work or a seller perhaps positioned the price wrong (got caught in the winter interest rate spike), but those are unusual. We had an opportunity for a home in a really nice town where the seller moved out and it went well below a three-time reduced price. We didn't pull the trigger...DW wasn't feeling it. Aggregate metrics like Case Schiller indicate home prices are in decline in this area si...

We agreed to split the cost of roof repairs, believing they were minor. Our contract binds us to our portion of these costs even if the sale falls through. We paid a home inspector to give us his honest opinion, and he was wrong. These "minor" repairs were actually huge issues to insurance companies. It wasn't a ton of money. Much less than the deposit. We were only billed (and paid) for the work that was done. When our home inspector did a re-inspection a few weeks ago, he said the repairs "looked great" and sent us a new inspection form. Conveniently, the new inspection form made no mention of the recent repair work and other areas of concern. As I type this out, I realize what a disaster it was. I'm so glad it's over...

Are you going to consult with a real estate attorney that isn't one recommended by the realtor?

Isn't there usually a lot of time between the home inspection and closing?

For a good part of the past ten years, TIPS had negative real yields that probably passed through the rolling ladder of the fund.

Me 47
Wife 37

80% Stocks
20% Bonds

Make sure your relationship with your boss and other managers is improved and good in the coming year. Also keep an eye out for the overall health of the company.

Sounds reasonable.

I am also an engineer and married with 1 kid and 2nd kid on the way. We are a one income household and will stay that way. I have about 2 years worth of an emergency fund too.

Happy 99th birthday Taylor!

We keep about 2 x OOPM in cash, short-term bond and short-term TIPS index funds for emergencies. (2 years of deductibles, co-pays). All after that is invested in an 80/20 index fund mix of stocks to bonds. We also keep copies of big medical bills so we can withdraw if we need to.

It looks like the gross monthly income is $23,0000 and the total housing costs are $5,000; that is about 21% of gross. Seems very comfortable to me. Not surprising on such a high household income in an HCOL area.

I know that income/wealth on this forum skews high, but in the grand scheme of things, its very fortunate to be able to pay such a low % on housing.

Hi Everyone,
Thanks again for the help but unfortunately it looks like it didn't work out.
They simply blew me off. The hiring manager told me there would be a panel interview scheduled as soon as he got back from vacation. Well, a few weeks later I logged in and found my application status was "no longer under consideration". No emails, nothing.
I'm not totally surprised working in MegaCorps for over 2 decades, but still extremely disappointed.
The job search goes on....

The most powerful thing to do would be to reach out to the two individuals and see if they are willing to proactively vouch for you - have them send an email to the hiring manager "I heard you are currently interviewing such-and-such. I would highly recommend this candidate for your position as I experienced first hand their contributions at XYZ. As an example blah-blah-blah". I have done this for former colleagues at my current company - I lob an email to the hiring manager giving my endorsement on someone that is interviewing providing examples of their achievements, etc. Of course I only do this if I feel the individual would benefit the organization. If the hiring manager has two or three candidates they are looking at - havi...

cheese_breath wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 8:35 am Have you asked these two people if they'd be willing to act as references for you?

One of the two. The other no. There is also a third person, but I'd also need to ask him.

Fantastic advice all.

The next set of interviews are not yet scheduled; they said its slow moving. The hiring manager is out on vacation for 2 weeks starting now. They said to bare with them.

I have 3 contact at the target company; one I am already buddies with so I will definitely as her. The other two I will put out feelers for first before asking.

So I will definitely take the advice to act ASAP to reach out to my contacts; however, I think I will wait until after this holiday week; Monday.

Thanks everyone!

Hi all, I'm in the midst of a job interview process with a company. So far I've had interviews with the recruiter and hiring manager. Upcoming in the next two weeks will be one more interview (at least) with a panel of 2 more people. During my interview with the hiring manager, I neglected to mention that there are two individuals at his company (but not in his organization) that worked closely with me in the past. What are your thoughts on me reaching out with an email to the recruiter to let her know who these former co-workers were so they can follow up if they want more information? I don't have the hiring managers contact info as it wasn't available. Also what are your thoughts about reaching out to a VP I know in the company? I'm not ...

Anyone want to take a guess at what the fixed rate will be on Nov 1?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess 0.7%!

If long TIPS hit a real yield above 2.0% I will…

...put some of my "medium term" money into them. (money needed in 5-10 years)

I like things simple. When I was in this situation, I: 1) Had my paychecks direct deposited to my credit union savings account 2) Calculated the average monthly amount (paycheck amount X26 / 12) 3) Auto transferred the above amount from savings to checking on the 1st of each month You need to beef up the savings account a bit at first, but that works out if you keep 3 months or so emergency savings in the savings account. Good luck! I like this approach alot. Smooths things out as if you're actually getting paid the average (26/12). TBF, one of the reasons I find the 2 paycheck monthly budgeting annoying is that I'm trying to figure out large expense capacity; like a mortgage. If I budget a mortgage based on a 2 paycheck month, the amount ...

Hi all,
I have a very simple question.

For those of you that get paid every two weeks (10 months with 2 paychecks & 2 months with 3 paychecks):

Do you set your monthly budget based on a monthly average of what you get paid or do you set it against the actual # of paychecks you get in each month?

Thanks!

Once kids reach 18 or 21 you don't have any more control over them financially or otherwise. So in my opinion there's no need to worry as much, the horse has already left the barn. What will happen will happen.

I'm in the Boston Area, age 46.

I spend 36% of after tax income on renting a 2 BR/2 BA apartment.

dknightd wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:42 am

Coltrane75 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:21 am Maybe build a house that could be more resilient (?).

Maybe a camper van???

Is that your plan???

It might be impossible to find a region that will be predicted to be an island of climate stability a few decades from now if one were to exist. Maybe try to avoid the regions that are likely to be/or are experiencing the worst of it.

I'm in new england and while the impact is present, it hasn't been as bad. However, I'm not considering a move because my family roots are here and even if that weren't the case and were in your shoes, I would be resigned to assume all areas will be significantly impacted a few decades out.

Maybe build a house that could be more resilient (?).

If one were to take the 401k and make that a negative liability and combine it with a mortgage as a negative asset/bond, would that result in an explosion and a micro black hole?

"I suggest this. Use an online loan calculator. See what the balance is in 15 years on a 30 year loan. Then calculate what rate of return you would need if you saved $1000 (the payment difference) for 15 years to have that balance. My guess is that it will be around 7 or 8 percent. That is a fairly safe and high after tax return. That sealed the deal for me. It is important that you are confident that you can make the payment." The answer I got was... you'd need a 9 percent return. Hmm! It is. And that nine percent is after tax. I decided to show you the math and was working on this before you posted ... This was cut from a similar thread where I calculated the return you must get from the lower payments to break even. Understand...

It sounds like a pretty good approach if you can comfortably afford the 15 year. I am of the thinking that it is more valuable to be free of debt peonage than to max cash flow. Additionally, be sure comparing 30 yr + VTI vs 15 year is realistic. I suspect many people wouldn't invest the extra cash flow as a result of the 30 year mortgage.

Can someone summarize what point this thread is making? when I bought a house I borrowed money. When I had an extra dollar I decided to either invest it or pay down my mortgage debt. I paid my two houses off over the last 25 years. Is it more complicated than that? I think it appears from this thread to be more complicated than that. I own two houses one worth say 250 and one worth say 550 - so I own 800K of residential housing. What concept am I missing? I'm with you on this. I don't see how debt can be counted towards asset allocation (its a liability) and don't see how paying down an obligation generates a "return" (it reduces future interest expenses). The negative bond concept seems like its making something pretty straightf...

I think waiting is a good option if you can maintain a good savings rate.

A month-to-month lease is ideal if its not super expensive.

I think there is a good chance home prices may go down; but who knows. As we say here "nobody knows nothing".

What's the downside you waited as long as a few years while you save more? Don't panic and rush the decision. Rent for awhile.

Check out altos research on Youtube; he does a pretty good job with weekly 10 minute videos that summarize the market and is based in CA.

I share the same concerns and use Libre Calc to download csv files to track and budget.

For an emergency buffer, I keep about 2 years worth of deductibles & co-pays invested in short-term TIPS & Bonds and invest the rest aggressively. Though about $1500 must be kept in a low paying savings account.

I keep receipts for large medical bills so that I can extract money from the HSA for emergencies.

Likely will lose a bit if you sell before maturity if the Fed continues hiking rates this year---if higher interest rate TBills at similar maturities are on offer.
May want to build a ladder of TBills of varying maturity so in aggregate you can mitigate the fluctuations while taking advantage of higher interest rates in the coming months.

There is a quick rule of thumb for life insurance that I think is 10x your income.

I used a spreadsheet to determine my needs; decided to buy enough to replace about 75% of my income for the next 25 years less SS survivorship benefits. It came about to be about a little more than 10x my annual gross income anyways.

Also keep an eye out for TIPS with good real yields on the secondary market with maturity dates < 5 years.

My takeaway is to remain internationally diversified and to stay the course. Japan bubble is a cautionary tale that a stock market in any country is capable of not providing returns for decades.

marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 3:36 pm I wonder home many of the market experts that have come out of the woodwork lately claiming how obviously they could predict what the market is going to do called the market rising 1.5% today.

My gut told me it was going down alot today, so I had a laugh when I just checked and saw it up 1.5%.

I also love the news feed on my iPhone that is always 2 hours behind what the market is actually doing. "Why the market is tanking" as the market is going back up.

I backup to a NAS synology drive that in turn backsup to a cloud and an external drive.

HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 12:44 pm

William Million wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 12:42 pm If the experts can't reliably forecast the range of stock gains, then obviously some guys like us sitting around at home can't do it - armed simply with P/E numbers. None of us have any idea if returns will be above or below average over the next 10 years.

Robert Schiller won a Nobel Prize and has probably been more wrong than anyone about market expectations over the past decade. What chance do we have? An allocation should be set based on risk tolerance, but not some crude armchair analysis of the expected range of equity returns.

Thank you.

The CAPE debates on this forum are always very interesting. I used to think CAPE was useful but I've come around to your camp; I think it's fairly useless.

I'm a renter in VHCOL area. It is about 25% of my gross salary.

Valuation measures like CAPE have been drifting higher since its creation in the late 80s which is an indication of it not being useful. If it was a good tool, you would see more of a control chart with consistent upper and lower bounds being respected. The above is not true overseas. CAPE ratios have on average decreased since the 1980s in foreign markets, most notably in Japan. Japan had a very high CAPE ratio for the 30 or so year period from the 1980s to the late 2000s. And then it didn't. A more plausible explanation is the US has been an outlier and might not always be. The consensus view here seems to be the opposite, that foreign markets are the outlier and that an elevated CAPE ratio in one country is proof it is useless. This is ...

If you are long term and patient I see no reason to reduce equity allocation now, but I do see good reasons to shift among my equities and wait for a decade or two to see how things play out. Others think none of the above matters and you should always have the exact same allocation among your equities no matter what. In other words to them the price you pay for an asset is irrelevant. It is possible to believe that US stocks are overpriced and at the same time believe that there isn't anything productive to do about it. Nispirius' post above talks about the failures of tactical asset allocation mutual funds. If it were that easy to take advantage of pricing information about markets you'd have thought they'd have done better. Maybe they (...

JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:01 pm All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI


This might be of interest too

Thanks for this chart; very insightful and depressing.

Hi, We are about to open a 529 plan for our newborn daughter and as far as I can tell, the Vanguard plan (sponsored in Nevada) is as good of an option as any other one. One thing that would’ve otherwise made me use my home state’s plan instead of the Vanguard plan is if the contributions were deductible on my state tax return, but I live in North Carolina where no such deductions are allowed. So that being said, does anyone have any strong opinions on using or not using the Vanguard 529 plan specifically? This isn’t meant to be a thread to debate the merits of saving through a 529 as an overall strategy. We know a 529 is the vehicle we’d like to use, but just trying to navigate choosing a specific 529 plan. Figured the Vanguard plan would ...

randomguy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:32 am

nigel_ht wrote: ↑Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:21 am

Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:06 pm Grantham is now predicting worse than 1929:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... sh-2021-11

So I guess the bears haven’t capitulated yet?

If Grantham ever capitulates, I am going 100% gold.

Its a bit interesting/fun to read about pontifications regarding valuations but I just stick to the IPS and stay in the market. I don't find anything about CAPE Schiller/Valuation talk actionable.

Being a BH is swimming against a strong current; its almost a counter-culture.

The normy experience we almost all experience is to be brainwashed from the time were children by advertising and cultural products to consume, compete, accumulate and get the quick answer. Financial literacy is really not taught anywhere. We're also pressured to not think much, much less critically, by the culture.

To get to the BH mindset requires overcoming alot of the noise and early programming; very difficult.

Sounds pretty good; maybe consider adding in a safety factor?

Annual increases in college tuition has been slowing down over the past 10+ years overall; however, top tier privates may increase more.

This is all highly uncertain though....