Search found 61 matches

by Coltrane75
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math
Replies: 100
Views: 6291

Re: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math

I have mixed feelings about these plans; I'm in one too. It offers opportunity to build wealth with the HSA so long as one is financially literate and can afford the deductibles comfortably (with Wall Street sneaking in to skim some money off the HSA). I could see some people getting attached to the...
by Coltrane75
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expected Return on VBTLX (Tot Bond Mkt Index Fund)
Replies: 1
Views: 336

Expected Return on VBTLX (Tot Bond Mkt Index Fund)

Hi all, I understand that obviously if one were to buy a 5 year bond with a coupon of 2.5%; the expected return would be 2.5% if held until maturity. If one were to purchase the VBTLX, which currently has a 30day SEC Yield of 2.69% and average duration 6 years, would the expected return be 2.69% ove...
by Coltrane75
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4168

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

Is it true that you want to go into a dealership and negotiate a sale price first and then tell them you want to lease? Just throwing it out there; seems like leasing is pretty complicated. If you aren't going to put many miles on it, would it be worth considering buying it and then selling it to a...
by Coltrane75
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Inflation in Retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 2494

Re: Estimating Inflation in Retirement

I also do projections in real dollars.
by Coltrane75
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4168

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

Leasing, like another poster said, is a black box; you have no idea how they determine the payment. There was a fanatic at Bimmerforums that created a spreadsheet to reverse engineer lease payments and concluded the dealer charges some sort of defacto interest. So leasing made me uncomfortable and a...
by Coltrane75
Thu May 30, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer
Replies: 59
Views: 5444

Re: Jim Cramer

I don't get it. The past several days, he's been talking like the sky is falling and we should get out of stocks for the most part. Today, it's "time to buy amidst market weakness". Literally nothing meaningful has changed in the past few days, except for a slight (a few % at most) decline in the S...
by Coltrane75
Wed May 29, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Bond or Muni?
Replies: 18
Views: 3144

Re: Taxable Bond or Muni?

Be sure to keep the long run in mind if this is for medium term savings; the spread between the two, tax brackets and your personal situation may change. I'm not sure the spread between the two bond funds in question has increased but the interest rates for both have gone down. That may make the bre...
by Coltrane75
Tue May 28, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)
Replies: 32
Views: 2776

Re: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)

Aren't leveraged ETFs/funds not viable long-term investments?

See link below; their returns decay pretty quickly:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/f ... rm-bet.asp
by Coltrane75
Fri May 24, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Use HSA To Buy Boat?
Replies: 11
Views: 830

Re: Use HSA To Buy Boat?

Thanks guys, I understand now.

This might be a dumb follow-up question; but does this capability present a unique advantage in the big picture? My first thought is that delaying reimbursement allows the money to more easily accumulate; anything else?
by Coltrane75
Fri May 24, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Use HSA To Buy Boat?
Replies: 11
Views: 830

Use HSA To Buy Boat?

Hi all, In the midst of researching information on HSAs to determine what I should I do, I came across an article that said this: "Principle #5: HSA dollars do not have to be withdrawn in the same year as the healthcare expense Although this rule may change at the whims of Congress, as the law curre...
by Coltrane75
Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Tesla Going To Survive?
Replies: 99
Views: 6709

Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

I'm not sure but I wish I had started shorting the stock a few months ago.

I was always a Tesla skeptic and was never a fan of Elon Musk; he's a very skilled "Confidence Man".

If they don't make it maybe they get bought up or just go bankrupt.
by Coltrane75
Wed May 22, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for HSA
Replies: 5
Views: 242

Re: Asset Allocation for HSA

I'm not sure how to answer your question because I've been having the same dilemma regarding use for expenses v growth. I'm building up my HSA, which has the same funds, and I am taking the following approach: 1. Amount up to Out-Of-Pocket-Max invested in Vanguard TIPS (Goal: Expenses) 2. Amount equ...
by Coltrane75
Tue May 21, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recently promoted - how to match image with title?
Replies: 54
Views: 4898

Re: Recently promoted - how to match image with title?

Some things to consider: 1. Wearing a blazer 2. Dark colors 3. Slicked back hair 4. Speak without voice fry, raised-question intonations or the use of ums 5. Wear pants 6. Don't smile as much; be serious as default. 7. Don't engage in small friendly chit-chat much with higher ups anymore than they d...
by Coltrane75
Tue May 21, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5729

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

It seems like these kinds of articles are becoming more common. Passive investing has taken a lot of money from many of these companies so they are not going down without a fight. Maybe this is paranoid but I hope it doesn't get to the point where they lobby Congress to penalize passive investing so...
by Coltrane75
Mon May 20, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 14329

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

FIRE is a source of attention grabbing headlines; makes good clickbait.

But I am also very intrigued by the subject; its a creative way to break from things and look for more independence.
by Coltrane75
Fri May 17, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone use Treasury Direct ?
Replies: 34
Views: 1949

Re: Anyone use Treasury Direct ?

Not terribly bad for 27-day treasury yield at 2.4% compared to best FDIC insured bank accounts (yes, some pay 2.5% even today) Anyone use https://www.treasurydirect.gov/RS/UN-AccountCreate.do ? Experience ? I also love 4 week T Bills, its where the vast majority of my short/uncertain money is now. ...
by Coltrane75
Fri May 17, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 126
Views: 17569

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

I have: 1. One month of expenses in a high savings FDIC insured account paying 2.1% at a credit union 2. 12 months in 4 week treasury bills paying 2.5% TEY 3. 2 months in I Bonds 4. 1 month in a Vanguard Money Market that rotates money to/fro a company ESPP account buying stocks at 15% discount and ...
by Coltrane75
Fri May 17, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5344

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

Asset allocation matters but its one of several important factors which include savings rate and expense ratio. In your case, your savings rate is high and I presume your are using index funds so you have those two bases covered. You're not going to find a definitive answer for asset allocation howe...
by Coltrane75
Thu May 16, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3768

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

Its my impression among people I know that bonds are kind of overlooked/underappreciated. Its either super aggressive with stocks or dooms-day prep level risk aversion.
by Coltrane75
Thu May 16, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 8866

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

Just for fun, in baseball the odds of hitting a grand slam are very slim, "The odds of having bases loaded and hitting a home run are extremely small and there are an average of 135.6 grand slams in an entire season, or odds of about .07%." Source: https://www.rockiesventureclub.org/uncategorized/ho...
by Coltrane75
Tue May 14, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?
Replies: 36
Views: 2227

Re: Can future returns for the next 10 years really be predicted with CAPE?

I think using CAPE for estimating future returns is actually pretty decent. See the at the link below where expected and actual returns are plotted together. In this case, these are expected returns over 8 year periods. https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php It uses the same formula Bogle used for...
by Coltrane75
Tue May 14, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 126
Views: 17569

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

I only keep one month of expenses in an online savings account and one month in Vanguard Money Market. The rest of my emergency fund and excess short term savings are in 4 week T Bills and I Bonds.
by Coltrane75
Thu May 09, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 10647

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

50/50; generally use total world index as rough guideline.
by Coltrane75
Wed May 08, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3422

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

There are good points in the article and other posts here. Its safe to have a plan that is based on a fairly conservative outlook.

I think its way too complicated to predict returns going forward.
by Coltrane75
Wed May 01, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 7530

Re: "The market is overvalued"

You do realize that 1996 was the year Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exuberance" speech, right? The market was overvalued then. Just like in 1996 the market is overvalued now, but it can get more overvalued. However, look at the 12 years following 1996 as a whole, it wasn't that product...
by Coltrane75
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What happened to GE?
Replies: 24
Views: 2544

Re: What happened to GE?

Since its not a lot of money I don't think its a big deal to hold on to it. IMO, GE is a big fat inefficient corporate behemoth. As someone earlier said, Jack Welch was able to pivot the company for a bit to capitalize on the financialized economy and make the company look sexier than it realy was. ...
by Coltrane75
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying a home w/cash vs taking a mortgage and investing
Replies: 39
Views: 4568

Re: Buying a home w/cash vs taking a mortgage and investing

I'd buy the house with cash. I think the value of living debt free is something to aspire to. Investing the difference rests on future returns that are uncertain; having no debt is final. I read somewhere that these days, a very small percentage of households are able to obtain an itemized tax deduc...
by Coltrane75
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alliant 3/2.5% card - any experience?
Replies: 52
Views: 8964

Re: Alliant 3/2.5% card - any experience?

I've had it for a few months now and I like it. I can transfer the cash back directly to the savings account I have with them. The recent hike in the annual fee from $59 to $99 is unfortunate but I'll still stick with it because it would still beat my reserve no fee 1.5% cash back card I have with B...
by Coltrane75
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation if 60 % in company stock
Replies: 15
Views: 1248

Re: Asset allocation if 60 % in company stock

If she isn't going to let go of the 60% of company stock, then I would put the other 40% in a very low risk area; perhaps fund of treasuries or something similar in the 401k. I think that would balance out the extreme risk of holding so much money in a single company stock.
by Coltrane75
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not much work at new megacorp job
Replies: 70
Views: 5614

Re: Not much work at new megacorp job

Try to be patient especially if the pay, benefits and location are good. Rather than tell your boss you don't have much to do, invert the question. Ask him and others for other opportunities for work. Say you have interests in other projects going on and would like to help. Do any extra work you can...
by Coltrane75
Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Challenge Setting Aside Monthly Savings
Replies: 12
Views: 1052

Challenge Setting Aside Monthly Savings

Hi all, I'm finding sometimes that when I close out a month and see I have a surplass; i.e. excess of income over savings, I can't actually immediately transfer money from my checking account to my savings. I find that, for example, if I have a $1000 surplas in March, I can't really set aside that e...
by Coltrane75
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage as negative bond = YIKES! Should I panic?
Replies: 37
Views: 3305

Re: Mortgage as negative bond = YIKES! Should I panic?

My retirement account has $890,000 in it @ 60/40. I like 60/40 for my risk tolerance. Age 53, 5 years until retirement (hopefully). My mortgage balance is $578,000 (3.875%, 37% marginal fed tax rate). If the mortgage is a negative bond, my actual AA is 177/0. I am leveraged to the hilt! What to do ...
by Coltrane75
Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation
Replies: 41
Views: 3510

Re: Bay Area housing prices as a function of tech stock appreciation

Housing price appreciation always seems a bit vague to me because though the local economy and/or speculation are cited as drivers; I don't know of any studies/investigations to quantify it in a way that includes hard evidence. Its usually just surface level.
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 129
Views: 20865

Re: Three Fund Portfolio beating Yale Portfolio

Bogleheads: It is interesting to see that " Yale U's Unconventional" portfolio trails " Allan Roth's Second Grader Starter "Three Fund Portfolio" in the MarketWatch contest. https://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Best wishes Taylor Hi Taylor - I have noticed this for a while now as I check the l...
by Coltrane75
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation - No Bonds yet, but they seem like a bad deal. - 38yo
Replies: 41
Views: 2616

Re: Allocation - No Bonds yet, but they seem like a bad deal. - 38yo

Keep in mind, that it's usually when assets look the least attractive that turn out to be the best time to buy them. Likewise, the times when assets (cough cough stocks) seem the most attractive are generally the worst times to buy them. Oh I agree with you that stocks don't look terribly attractiv...
by Coltrane75
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Opinion on Nest Thermostats
Replies: 62
Views: 5012

Re: What's Your Opinion on Nest Thermostats

While its features are convenient, its part of the larger group of products referred to as the "Internet of Things (IoT)". I don't like these products because of the well documented concerns over their lack of security and privacy. In some cases, there are products that are in some ways worse than t...
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation Planning w/o Foreign Language Knowledge
Replies: 15
Views: 723

Vacation Planning w/o Foreign Language Knowledge

Hi all, My fiancée and I are considering locations for our honeymoon; our top three are New Zealand, South Africa and Chile. I'm American, based in the states, and I haven't done much traveling to countries where I don't know the language outside of Western Europe where many people speak English. Ho...
by Coltrane75
Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hussman predictions..
Replies: 6
Views: 729

Re: Hussman predictions..

Any opinions? https://www.investopedia.com/news/market-bear-hussman-says-stocks-could-lose-20-trillion/ Crash Drop in S&P 500 Hussman's prediction for 2018 onward (60%) 2007–2009 Financial Crisis (56.8%) 2000–2002 Dotcom Crash (49.1%) 1987 Crash (33.5%) 1929 Crash (1929 to 1932) (82.7%) I don't hav...
by Coltrane75
Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?
Replies: 69
Views: 5394

Re: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?

In high school and undergrad economics I learned that the marketplace consists of informed consumers making rational choices. In Business School I learned quite the opposite; to create a market/need/want when there isn't one by utilizing advertising that appeals to people's emotions. In other words,...
by Coltrane75
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!
Replies: 34
Views: 3027

Re: Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market!

Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either. How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen: This is a good point. How can it...
by Coltrane75
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a VPN -- 2019
Replies: 9
Views: 1752

Re: Picking a VPN -- 2019

You may want to check out the site below where VPNs are summarized in great detail: https://thatoneprivacysite.net/ Most other sources of information I've come across that aggregate VPN information from this forum and other parts of the internet usually contain limited or affiliated/funded informati...
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good VPN?
Replies: 35
Views: 4344

Re: Good VPN?

I use Mullvad.

You can find a comparison and good information here:

https://thatoneprivacysite.net/vpn-section/
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Objective news source?
Replies: 69
Views: 1612

Re: Objective news source?

Hopefully this doesn't get locked either. One last point I'd like to make is news consumption shouldn't be passive. So for instance, if there is a major issue that is getting debated reported, you'll find it is some sort of argument based on several premises. If you take the approach to just scan le...
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Objective news source?
Replies: 69
Views: 1612

Re: Objective news source?

I want to keep up on current events, but have become utterly exasperated with trying to find a neutral, objective source for news. ... What is an objective news source? How are you defining objective? How are you determining it in a news article (examples would help). Will your definition be object...
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Objective news source?
Replies: 69
Views: 1612

Re: Objective news source?

I want to keep up on current events, but have become utterly exasperated with trying to find a neutral, objective source for news. ... What is an objective news source? How are you defining objective? How are you determining it in a news article (examples would help). Will your definition be object...
by Coltrane75
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Objective news source?
Replies: 69
Views: 1612

Re: Objective news source?

What is meant by neutral/objective? If you mean writing that simply states facts of what happened and accuracy around that; e.g. details of car crash, then standard local papers or NYT are fine. if you are looking for journalism that is attempting to analyze, explain and interpret; then there is no ...
by Coltrane75
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock market current state and investing
Replies: 25
Views: 1913

Re: Stock market current state and investing

As you said that you are someone new to this, I also don't recommend trying to time the market. I've made that mistake in the past but when I was in my 20s/early30s; it will cost you dearly if you get it wrong at this point in your life (age 40). Take a look at the Portfolio Visualizer website; its ...
by Coltrane75
Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3
Replies: 286
Views: 19226

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

IMO, Tesla seems to be on shaky ground and Elon Musk seems to be kind of a buffoon to me. I wouldn't splurge on that car; who knows how well its made.