Bogleheads.org

Coltrane75

I'm sure you'll likely see a contradictory article on the same website indicating market optimism. It's just clickbait noise.

Coltrane75

Hi all, I'm going to purchase a new iPhone. I have the iPhone 6. I'm debating between the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro. I was in the store and had the two side-by-side. They both were set to the same wallpaper which contained black. To be honest, I really couldn't tell much of a difference between th...

Coltrane75

Tax laws change all the time; so basing long term planning decision on them is very limited. There are/should be other considerations besides $ with regards to marriage. Additionally, an individual situation is the main relevance to whether a specific tax code helps or hurts. The blue/red high/low t...

Coltrane75

I'm not aware of any issues with Vanguard's stewardship.

There seems to be a steady drum of what IMO is passive index concern trolling over the past year.

Coltrane75

I have the Alliant Credit Union Cash Rewards Visa card.
It pays 3% cashback first year on all transactions, annual fee waived. Cash is cash; you can deposit it to a bank account.
After 1st year it pays 2.5% cash back with a ~$90 annual fee.

Coltrane75

I have mixed feelings about these plans; I'm in one too. It offers opportunity to build wealth with the HSA so long as one is financially literate and can afford the deductibles comfortably (with Wall Street sneaking in to skim some money off the HSA). I could see some people getting attached to the...

Coltrane75

Hi all, I understand that obviously if one were to buy a 5 year bond with a coupon of 2.5%; the expected return would be 2.5% if held until maturity. If one were to purchase the VBTLX, which currently has a 30day SEC Yield of 2.69% and average duration 6 years, would the expected return be 2.69% ove...

Coltrane75

Is it true that you want to go into a dealership and negotiate a sale price first and then tell them you want to lease? Just throwing it out there; seems like leasing is pretty complicated. If you aren't going to put many miles on it, would it be worth considering buying it and then selling it to a...

Coltrane75

I also do projections in real dollars.

Coltrane75

Leasing, like another poster said, is a black box; you have no idea how they determine the payment. There was a fanatic at Bimmerforums that created a spreadsheet to reverse engineer lease payments and concluded the dealer charges some sort of defacto interest. So leasing made me uncomfortable and a...

Coltrane75

I don't get it. The past several days, he's been talking like the sky is falling and we should get out of stocks for the most part. Today, it's "time to buy amidst market weakness". Literally nothing meaningful has changed in the past few days, except for a slight (a few % at most) decline in the S...

Coltrane75

Be sure to keep the long run in mind if this is for medium term savings; the spread between the two, tax brackets and your personal situation may change. I'm not sure the spread between the two bond funds in question has increased but the interest rates for both have gone down. That may make the bre...

Coltrane75

Aren't leveraged ETFs/funds not viable long-term investments?

See link below; their returns decay pretty quickly:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/f ... rm-bet.asp

Coltrane75

Thanks guys, I understand now.

This might be a dumb follow-up question; but does this capability present a unique advantage in the big picture? My first thought is that delaying reimbursement allows the money to more easily accumulate; anything else?

Coltrane75

Hi all, In the midst of researching information on HSAs to determine what I should I do, I came across an article that said this: "Principle #5: HSA dollars do not have to be withdrawn in the same year as the healthcare expense Although this rule may change at the whims of Congress, as the law curre...

Coltrane75

I'm not sure but I wish I had started shorting the stock a few months ago.

I was always a Tesla skeptic and was never a fan of Elon Musk; he's a very skilled "Confidence Man".

If they don't make it maybe they get bought up or just go bankrupt.

Coltrane75

I'm not sure how to answer your question because I've been having the same dilemma regarding use for expenses v growth. I'm building up my HSA, which has the same funds, and I am taking the following approach: 1. Amount up to Out-Of-Pocket-Max invested in Vanguard TIPS (Goal: Expenses) 2. Amount equ...

Coltrane75

Some things to consider: 1. Wearing a blazer 2. Dark colors 3. Slicked back hair 4. Speak without voice fry, raised-question intonations or the use of ums 5. Wear pants 6. Don't smile as much; be serious as default. 7. Don't engage in small friendly chit-chat much with higher ups anymore than they d...

Coltrane75

It seems like these kinds of articles are becoming more common. Passive investing has taken a lot of money from many of these companies so they are not going down without a fight. Maybe this is paranoid but I hope it doesn't get to the point where they lobby Congress to penalize passive investing so...

Coltrane75

FIRE is a source of attention grabbing headlines; makes good clickbait.

But I am also very intrigued by the subject; its a creative way to break from things and look for more independence.

Coltrane75

Not terribly bad for 27-day treasury yield at 2.4% compared to best FDIC insured bank accounts (yes, some pay 2.5% even today) Anyone use https://www.treasurydirect.gov/RS/UN-AccountCreate.do ? Experience ? I also love 4 week T Bills, its where the vast majority of my short/uncertain money is now. ...

Coltrane75

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Coltrane75

I have: 1. One month of expenses in a high savings FDIC insured account paying 2.1% at a credit union 2. 12 months in 4 week treasury bills paying 2.5% TEY 3. 2 months in I Bonds 4. 1 month in a Vanguard Money Market that rotates money to/fro a company ESPP account buying stocks at 15% discount and ...

Coltrane75

Asset allocation matters but its one of several important factors which include savings rate and expense ratio. In your case, your savings rate is high and I presume your are using index funds so you have those two bases covered. You're not going to find a definitive answer for asset allocation howe...

Coltrane75

VTWAX

Coltrane75

Its my impression among people I know that bonds are kind of overlooked/underappreciated. Its either super aggressive with stocks or dooms-day prep level risk aversion.

Coltrane75

Just for fun, in baseball the odds of hitting a grand slam are very slim, "The odds of having bases loaded and hitting a home run are extremely small and there are an average of 135.6 grand slams in an entire season, or odds of about .07%." Source: https://www.rockiesventureclub.org/uncategorized/ho...

Coltrane75

I think using CAPE for estimating future returns is actually pretty decent. See the at the link below where expected and actual returns are plotted together. In this case, these are expected returns over 8 year periods. https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php It uses the same formula Bogle used for...

Coltrane75

I only keep one month of expenses in an online savings account and one month in Vanguard Money Market. The rest of my emergency fund and excess short term savings are in 4 week T Bills and I Bonds.

Coltrane75

50/50; generally use total world index as rough guideline.

Coltrane75

There are good points in the article and other posts here. Its safe to have a plan that is based on a fairly conservative outlook.

I think its way too complicated to predict returns going forward.

Coltrane75

You do realize that 1996 was the year Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exuberance" speech, right? The market was overvalued then. Just like in 1996 the market is overvalued now, but it can get more overvalued. However, look at the 12 years following 1996 as a whole, it wasn't that product...

Coltrane75

Since its not a lot of money I don't think its a big deal to hold on to it. IMO, GE is a big fat inefficient corporate behemoth. As someone earlier said, Jack Welch was able to pivot the company for a bit to capitalize on the financialized economy and make the company look sexier than it realy was. ...

Coltrane75

I'd buy the house with cash. I think the value of living debt free is something to aspire to. Investing the difference rests on future returns that are uncertain; having no debt is final. I read somewhere that these days, a very small percentage of households are able to obtain an itemized tax deduc...

Coltrane75

I've had it for a few months now and I like it. I can transfer the cash back directly to the savings account I have with them. The recent hike in the annual fee from $59 to $99 is unfortunate but I'll still stick with it because it would still beat my reserve no fee 1.5% cash back card I have with B...

Coltrane75

If she isn't going to let go of the 60% of company stock, then I would put the other 40% in a very low risk area; perhaps fund of treasuries or something similar in the 401k. I think that would balance out the extreme risk of holding so much money in a single company stock.

Coltrane75

Try to be patient especially if the pay, benefits and location are good. Rather than tell your boss you don't have much to do, invert the question. Ask him and others for other opportunities for work. Say you have interests in other projects going on and would like to help. Do any extra work you can...

Coltrane75

Hi all, I'm finding sometimes that when I close out a month and see I have a surplass; i.e. excess of income over savings, I can't actually immediately transfer money from my checking account to my savings. I find that, for example, if I have a $1000 surplas in March, I can't really set aside that e...

Coltrane75

My retirement account has $890,000 in it @ 60/40. I like 60/40 for my risk tolerance. Age 53, 5 years until retirement (hopefully). My mortgage balance is $578,000 (3.875%, 37% marginal fed tax rate). If the mortgage is a negative bond, my actual AA is 177/0. I am leveraged to the hilt! What to do ...

Coltrane75

Housing price appreciation always seems a bit vague to me because though the local economy and/or speculation are cited as drivers; I don't know of any studies/investigations to quantify it in a way that includes hard evidence. Its usually just surface level.

Coltrane75

Bogleheads: It is interesting to see that " Yale U's Unconventional" portfolio trails " Allan Roth's Second Grader Starter "Three Fund Portfolio" in the MarketWatch contest. https://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Best wishes Taylor Hi Taylor - I have noticed this for a while now as I check the l...

Coltrane75

Keep in mind, that it's usually when assets look the least attractive that turn out to be the best time to buy them. Likewise, the times when assets (cough cough stocks) seem the most attractive are generally the worst times to buy them. Oh I agree with you that stocks don't look terribly attractiv...

Coltrane75

While its features are convenient, its part of the larger group of products referred to as the "Internet of Things (IoT)". I don't like these products because of the well documented concerns over their lack of security and privacy. In some cases, there are products that are in some ways worse than t...

Coltrane75

Hi all, My fiancée and I are considering locations for our honeymoon; our top three are New Zealand, South Africa and Chile. I'm American, based in the states, and I haven't done much traveling to countries where I don't know the language outside of Western Europe where many people speak English. Ho...

Coltrane75

Any opinions? https://www.investopedia.com/news/market-bear-hussman-says-stocks-could-lose-20-trillion/ Crash Drop in S&P 500 Hussman's prediction for 2018 onward (60%) 2007–2009 Financial Crisis (56.8%) 2000–2002 Dotcom Crash (49.1%) 1987 Crash (33.5%) 1929 Crash (1929 to 1932) (82.7%) I don't hav...

Coltrane75

In high school and undergrad economics I learned that the marketplace consists of informed consumers making rational choices. In Business School I learned quite the opposite; to create a market/need/want when there isn't one by utilizing advertising that appeals to people's emotions. In other words,...

Coltrane75

Stocks "officially" entered into bear market territory on Dec. 24th, 2018. And there hasn't yet been a 20% improvement in stocks' prices, so we're not "officially" in a bull market right now either. How's that for throwing cold water on the birthday party? :mrgreen: This is a good point. How can it...

Coltrane75

You may want to check out the site below where VPNs are summarized in great detail: https://thatoneprivacysite.net/ Most other sources of information I've come across that aggregate VPN information from this forum and other parts of the internet usually contain limited or affiliated/funded informati...

Coltrane75

I use Mullvad.

You can find a comparison and good information here:

https://thatoneprivacysite.net/vpn-section/

Coltrane75

Hopefully this doesn't get locked either. One last point I'd like to make is news consumption shouldn't be passive. So for instance, if there is a major issue that is getting debated reported, you'll find it is some sort of argument based on several premises. If you take the approach to just scan le...

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