Search found 18 matches

by Alaric
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1498
Views: 108031

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am up 50.3% since my 2/27 start. I began at the original 40/60 and reset to 55/45 on 10/1. That was the only rebalance.
by Alaric
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?
Replies: 18
Views: 3602

Re: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?

After you retire, there's only one big event left....and I ain't ready for that. — Bobby Bowden
by Alaric
Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19942

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

When bonds and fixed interest are returning their historical 5.5% to 6%, an equity P/E ratio higher than ~15 becomes hard to defend. But when bond returns are below 2% and some government bonds have negative returns, a stock P/E of 20, 25, or even higher begins to seem quite reasonable. Should P/E b...
by Alaric
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 13983

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

I asked this before,... but the data available from 1970-2018 (so 48 years) straight from the backtesting spreadsheet on this site has shown zero benefit from holding intl equities (EAFE). And I state this as someone who still owns them. Over the past ~120 years, the US stock market has outperforme...
by Alaric
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 13983

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Buffett has told his wife to invest 90% of their money in the sp500 index fund Who better to listen to Someone with a better grasp of asset allocation than he seems to have. [/color] vineviz: If you were Mr. Buffett, what would you do differently? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Word...
by Alaric
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission
Replies: 37
Views: 3494

Re: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission

I just received an email from E*Trade. Special offer: Get 90 days managed free.

The email says after that the annual advisory fee is $1.50 per $500 invested, so 0.30% ER.
by Alaric
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions
Replies: 91
Views: 12513

Re: Learnings/Regrets from last two recessions

Learnings? I'm assuming you meant lessons. I didn't sell, and I bought more. My regret is that I bought at a normal pace. I think part of the hunger for bad financial news is that we wish we could go back to March 2009 and back up the truck. "Learning" as a noun makes my skin crawl every time I hea...
by Alaric
Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Freedom Q4 category - how to use? [2019]
Replies: 40
Views: 3355

Re: Chase Freedom Q4 category - how to use? [2019]

When drugstores are included for the category, I grab gift cards for other retailers. Home Depot, Amazon, restaurants. Amazon was/is useful for holiday times, I ship items right to the recipient. CVS, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, I've never had a problem. That's a good idea. I'll keep an eye out for that. ...
by Alaric
Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on Deferred Annuities on HumbleDoller
Replies: 15
Views: 1034

Re: Article on Deferred Annuities on HumbleDoller

Yet another strategy might be to buy a deeply deferred annuity that doesn’t start payments until age 90. A 65-year-old man investing $100,000 today could receive approximately $65,000 of annual income for life starting at age 90. That sounded surprisingly underwhelming to me. The 2016 SS period lif...
by Alaric
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on Deferred Annuities on HumbleDoller
Replies: 15
Views: 1034

Re: Article on Deferred Annuities on HumbleDoller

I don't understand the benefit of buying a deferred annuity versus just waiting and buying an immediate annuity later. Is it just peace of mind? You get more longevity credits the further in advance you buy it. You are taking more of a risk that you will never live to collect on an annuity if you b...
by Alaric
Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Market Timing Strategy That Works?
Replies: 19
Views: 2309

Re: A Simple Market Timing Strategy That Works?

If you have, for example, a 50/50 AA as your plan and then a 15% stock market correction reduces your equity value, then you are now at 54/46. Simply rebalancing back to your original 50/50 AA takes advantage of the lower stock prices and was part of your original strategy in the first place. Now if...
by Alaric
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax avoidance and estate planning ‘for the rich’?
Replies: 61
Views: 6583

Re: Tax avoidance and estate planning ‘for the rich’?

A big tax avoidance mechanism utilized by the ultra-rich is available to the rest of us, but most of us have no need of it — avoiding (federal) estate and inheritance taxes by structuring inheritances as family trusts or life insurance benefits. Unless your net worth is > $11 million it's not an avo...
by Alaric
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1498
Views: 108031

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think I may be one of the remaining few, if not only one(?), to be in the original 60/40 TMF/UPRO allocation. I started Feb 22nd and was up about 50% at one point. The portfolio has taken a bit of a dip the last 10 days though. I'm now up 38% since starting. I'm not sure when/if I'll change the a...
by Alaric
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So...Hedgefundie
Replies: 26
Views: 3920

Re: So...Hedgefundie

Congrats! It so happens that your portfolio was started in Feb 2019 and it missed Q4'2018 :-) Good analysis. I can sense that you used timing in your strategy, Do you have any exit plan, in case it blows up? The 40/60 UPRO/TMF blend fell (8.7%) in Q4 of 2018 but is now up 50.0% overall since 9/30/1...
by Alaric
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 30621

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Just so people understand who the respondents were and what question they were answering, it was the imprecise, "How much do you think you need to have saved for retirement?" which didn't even specify whether "have saved" referred to right now or by the time of eventual retirement, although the numb...
by Alaric
Thu May 02, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market
Replies: 105
Views: 9112

Re: Initial retirement investing in a record high stock market

I liked your original plan, but it requires that you stick to the plan. The market spends a lot of time at all time highs. What you are feeling is not unusual, but part of investing is being able to put feelings aside and stick with the plan. Good luck and best to you in retirement, Dan This plus a...
by Alaric
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension valuation: is $100 really worth $18,000?
Replies: 87
Views: 8335

Re: Pension valuation: is $100 really worth $18,000?

For those of us with defined contribution pensions the converse question, which is mathematically the same, is of interest. If we have the ability to choose whether or not to annuitize our pensions at retirement, it's good to be able to compare taking a lump sum of $18,000 at 65 vs. taking a monthly...