Search found 62 matches

by Alaric
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5790
Views: 523279

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Several related recent historical backtests follow here (actual UPRO and TMF results, not the sim data) to address a couple a points at once. One is the oft-made claim that TMF and the excellent adventure will fail in an era of rising rates, and the other point is just to numerically demonstrate wha...
by Alaric
Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%
Replies: 41
Views: 3020

Re: How Can I Reduce Total Market's (VTI) Tech of 25%

What if today were 1820? Would you be worried about overexposure to Industrial Revolution stocks?
by Alaric
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: "How ESG Makes Companies Better" (but lowers expected returns)
Replies: 67
Views: 3174

Re: Larry Swedroe: "How ESG Makes Companies Better" (but lowers expected returns)

John Authers had an interesting May piece in Bloomberg about ESG profits in the coronavirus world: ESG Investing Is Having a Good Crisis. It's Also Killing Jobs It is possible that ESG is undermining itself — or at least that the E and the S are in conflict with each other. Vincent Deluard, of INTL ...
by Alaric
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sports drink preferences
Replies: 61
Views: 2971

Re: Sports drink preferences

Liquid I.V.
by Alaric
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?
Replies: 121
Views: 5655

Re: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?

Below is the famous opening of Raymond Chandler's short story Red Wind : There was a desert wind blowing that night. It was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make your nerves jump and your skin itch. On nights like that every booze part...
by Alaric
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 12982

Re: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant

FYI, the current The Long View podcast from Morningstar is Mary Beth Franklin: To Fix Social Security, 'Everybody Is Going to Have to Be Unhappy' and addresses various scenarios, including the political roadblocks... https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/64 It's a great interview and d...
by Alaric
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: is the wisdom still relevant
Replies: 190
Views: 12982

Re: Delaying SSi: is the wisdom still relevant

my base case is that the law as it exists now will remain the same- i.e. no legislative changes to social security are made. the forecast of the 24% is done by the Social Security actuaries and is the base case. if i remember correctly there is a high and low scenario as well. I too noticed that wh...
by Alaric
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5790
Views: 523279

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

TechFI wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:34 am
Where are people buying UPRO/TMF? I tried purchasing some in my Roth IRA (Vanguard), and it would not allow me to buy leveraged products?!
My UPRO/TQQQ/TMF Adventure is in my E*Trade Roth IRA.
by Alaric
Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often to contribute to Roth?
Replies: 38
Views: 1844

Re: How often to contribute to Roth?

Historically January has been the best month for stock gains, relevant if some or all of your investments are in equities. A lot of people lump-sum each year's annual contribution on January 2 or other first trading day. Market fluctuations might make DCA do better in any given year, but over the co...
by Alaric
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $0.08 left in Vanguard account
Replies: 43
Views: 3527

Re: $0.08 left in Vanguard account

I had a $10 minimum transfer threshold on an account that I ended up with $0.04 in, so I transferred $10 in and then $10.04 out, and that worked. Not sure if something similar would work for you.
by Alaric
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 112
Views: 12939

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

I started investing in 1999. I experienced a decade of pain. This is why my approach is mostly buy and hold with a floor that I'll sell at and a price that I'll begin buying at again. Here's the lost decade in two portfolios: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&s...
by Alaric
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195827

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Can someone tell me why some doctors are prediction such a high number of deaths, considering China with such a huge number had had ~4000 deaths. Talk of 500,000 deaths (worst case scenario)....why so high compared to China? It's hard to understand. The numbers we are hearing don't mesh at all with...
by Alaric
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195827

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What if these actions are what makes it "nothing-burger"? Y2K was a serious threat but because it was taken seriously and addressed seriously, its actual effects were dramatically less than the worst-case scenarios that had been described. Something of that dynamic should obtain with COVID-19 as we...
by Alaric
Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5790
Views: 523279

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I rebalanced to 55/45 on Feb 11 when I added some additional capital and am now at 35/65. Will await April 1 quarterly window to rebalance.
by Alaric
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you ever use cash?
Replies: 228
Views: 13834

Re: Do you ever use cash?

My barbershop charges a $1.00 add-on fee to use a credit card, so instead I pay with cash (and tip my barber in cash). Tip jar at restaurants / coffee shops that can't add tips to the charge. Tips for hotel chambermaids whom I can't otherwise tip. That's pretty much it, and like sailaway I get all t...
by Alaric
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 307011

Re: Coronavirus and the market

China has evicted three Wall Street Journal reporters in retaliation for a February 3 WSJ editorial by Walter Russell Mead, China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia . Mead was not responsible for titling the column. That was apparently done by an WSJ subeditor. China claims the "sick man of Asia" verbiage...
by Alaric
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth Conversion: IRA or 401K?
Replies: 8
Views: 769

Re: Roth Conversion: IRA or 401K?

Roth 401Ks have RMDs just as traditional 401Ks do. But Roth IRAs have no RMDs. So convert the IRA funds first.
by Alaric
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth
Replies: 20
Views: 1869

Re: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth

I assume by "lowest tax bracket" they mean 10% rather than 0%, the actual lowest. The advice seems a bit arbitrary especially in today's environment where the second-lowest federal tax bracket is 12%. So if your top marginal rate is 10% you should go full Roth, but if you're in the very different 12...
by Alaric
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth
Replies: 20
Views: 1869

Re: Simple rule for allocation between Traditional vs Roth

I assume by "lowest tax bracket" they mean 10% rather than 0%, the actual lowest. The advice seems a bit arbitrary especially in today's environment where the second-lowest federal tax bracket is 12%. So if your top marginal rate is 10% you should go full Roth, but if you're in the very different 12...
by Alaric
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF to Hold for 50 Years
Replies: 118
Views: 10679

Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

BRK.B. Let it compound for 50 years.
by Alaric
Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Portfolio performances: 2 vs 3 fund
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: 2019 Portfolio performances: 2 vs 3 fund

On that page, click on the two-fund and three-fund links. You will see that in the two-fund (total world stock market and total US bond market) the stocks are represented by a cap-weighted global stock fund (which would be ~45% US, 55% ex-US). But in the three-fund options, US stocks outweigh intern...
by Alaric
Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easiest place to download historical stock price data?
Replies: 2
Views: 229

Re: Easiest place to download historical stock price data?

Yahoo Finance has it back to 12/31/1927:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Under Time Period just pick Max (or some other range) and then click Apply. You can download the data in .csv format.
by Alaric
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Including UPRO as a slice of your main portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 811

Re: Including UPRO as a slice of your main portfolio?

Isn't it just a mental accounting distinction without a difference to distinguish between "as a side bet" and "as part of your main portfolio"?
by Alaric
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5790
Views: 523279

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

In since 2/27/19. Up 72.7%. I started at the original 40/60 and then reset to the updated 55/45 on 10/1/19. Since then it has drifted up to 61/39. If I am still more than 5% absolute away from 55/45 on 4/1/20 I will rebalance. When I got into the Adventure it represented 4.8% of my investible assets...
by Alaric
Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese stocks will plunge on Monday?
Replies: 158
Views: 11083

Re: Asian (china) stocks in freefall

What Moto said. DJIA premarket up 107 points; S&P 500 up 12.50 pts.

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html
by Alaric
Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Test In Your Belief In Market Efficiency
Replies: 228
Views: 11131

Re: A Simple Test In Your Belief In Market Efficiency

If you believe in market efficiency, how do you square that belief with the facts that a) US investors have a strong home country bias, and b) overall, non-US investors have even stronger home country biases?
by Alaric
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?
Replies: 59
Views: 4354

Re: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?

One aspect of the corporate world that sweeps people who may lack the inclination, talent, or desire to be a manager into management is that business has firmly linked together employees' pay scales with their org chart positions. Many people have no ambition to be a manager in and of itself and are...
by Alaric
Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?
Replies: 59
Views: 4354

Re: How does someone know whether they would enjoy being a manager?

I would agree that most introverts do not enjoy being managers. And the following is definitely true. From Rich Handler's 100 Things I Wish Someone Had Told Us After College And Before I Entered The Real World 90. The more senior you become, the more people you work for. Most people think it is the ...
by Alaric
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber
Replies: 96
Views: 8390

Re: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber

Ok, but there is a huge difference in your portfolio dropping 30% and recovering over time and dropping 30% and staying there. Not all that concerned about the former, should I be? It depends on where "there" is, doesn't it? A 30% real loss requires a 43% real gain to get back to even. How long you...
by Alaric
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber
Replies: 96
Views: 8390

Re: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber

The naysayer might look at this and say “These are max drawdowns that likely played out over several years. A smart investor would have gotten out after, say, one year of bad returns.” What most naysayers say when they look at such max drawdowns is, “These are max drawdowns from a local peak to a l...
by Alaric
Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I am not very good at my job
Replies: 48
Views: 8015

Re: I am not very good at my job

As other have noted, if you are truly underperforming at your job your manager already knows that, so don't focus on trying to fix things before that occurs. Bring it up yourself. Don't wait to be called out. Ask your manager if you can have a little time to talk about your role in the organization ...
by Alaric
Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697082

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children, a group that's particularly vulnerable to the flu and its c...
by Alaric
Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 18613

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

People who need to pay blackmail anonymously.
People still living in 2018.
People who haven't heard that Silk Road was shut down.
Frustrated futurists repeatedly let down by Marvin Minsky, seeking their new false messiah.
by Alaric
Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator
Replies: 42
Views: 3419

Re: 100% stock threads as a counter indicator

The thing is there have also been a lot of recent threads expressing worry about the record-length bull, P/E and CAPE, not wanting to invest in all-time high markets, etc.
by Alaric
Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has the economy not crashed yet?
Replies: 36
Views: 2635

Re: Why has the economy not crashed yet?

The human brain wants to find patterns. I have seen a lot of people, especially among those old enough to remember the dot com bust and the 2008 Great Recession but not necessarily old enough to remember the preceding decade(s), apparently come to the conclusion that major economy and markets crashe...
by Alaric
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple stock
Replies: 37
Views: 3721

Re: Apple stock

Seems like every young person I know had to have Air Pods (often multiple sets) over the last three years. Those would certainly count as a major new product launched in the post-Jobs era. I'm not sure the OP was aware of them or how large their 2018 and 2017 sales had been when the post was created...
by Alaric
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020
Replies: 62
Views: 5344

Re: $1 in 2010 = $90,000 in Bitcoin 2020

These articles site a Bank of America report claiming $1 in bitcoin grew to $90,000 :shock: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/17/investing/best-worst-investments-decade-bitcoin/index.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-pyramid-scheme-says-economist-070015526.html Who are these people that are...
by Alaric
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!
Replies: 73
Views: 5386

Re: MARKETWATCH Three-Fund Portfolio Wins Again!

It's true; a 7 year-old shouldn't be 90%-10%. A 7 year-old should be at least 100% equities. Still, comparing two 90%-10% portfolios, the two-fund portfolio at 90%-0%-10% beat the Second Grader's Starter 60%-30%-10%: --------------------------------------------- 2019 ---- 3-yrs -- 5-yrs --- 10-yrs S...
by Alaric
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Places to Go Out When You Don't Want to Spend Much or Any Money
Replies: 129
Views: 11253

Re: Places to Go Out When You Don't Want to Spend Much or Any Money

I can't believe no one has said this yet - I assume it's just too obvious - but the simplest answer is the old reliable: Go shoot rats at the public dump.

It's free, it's societally beneficial, and it sure is fun.
by Alaric
Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can one have too much Roth?
Replies: 175
Views: 15970

Re: Can one have too much Roth?

Just a gentle reminder that unless you expect your entire retirement to take place between now and 2025, there is under current law no future 12% marginal tax rate under which you and/or your spouse can expect to spend the majority of your retirement. Or 22%, or 24%. Those are temporary rates that w...
by Alaric
Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Friendly States
Replies: 441
Views: 35202

Re: Retirement Friendly States

States with no state income taxes: Washington, Nevada, Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, Florida and Alaska Isn't Tennessee on here as well? Tennessee taxes dividends and interests that's the problem It is being phased out, though. It is only 2% this year, 1% next year, and 0% in 2021 and forward. http...
by Alaric
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5790
Views: 523279

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I am up 50.3% since my 2/27 start. I began at the original 40/60 and reset to 55/45 on 10/1. That was the only rebalance.
by Alaric
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?
Replies: 18
Views: 3733

Re: NYT: Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working?

After you retire, there's only one big event left....and I ain't ready for that. — Bobby Bowden
by Alaric
Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 22101

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

When bonds and fixed interest are returning their historical 5.5% to 6%, an equity P/E ratio higher than ~15 becomes hard to defend. But when bond returns are below 2% and some government bonds have negative returns, a stock P/E of 20, 25, or even higher begins to seem quite reasonable. Should P/E b...
by Alaric
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 15209

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

I asked this before,... but the data available from 1970-2018 (so 48 years) straight from the backtesting spreadsheet on this site has shown zero benefit from holding intl equities (EAFE). And I state this as someone who still owns them. Over the past ~120 years, the US stock market has outperforme...
by Alaric
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......
Replies: 148
Views: 15209

Re: Know when to hold them and when to fold them......

Buffett has told his wife to invest 90% of their money in the sp500 index fund Who better to listen to Someone with a better grasp of asset allocation than he seems to have. [/color] vineviz: If you were Mr. Buffett, what would you do differently? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Word...
by Alaric
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission
Replies: 37
Views: 3855

Re: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission

I just received an email from E*Trade. Special offer: Get 90 days managed free.

The email says after that the annual advisory fee is $1.50 per $500 invested, so 0.30% ER.