Search found 1153 matches

by Forester
Mon May 25, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 23
Views: 1111

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Brazil? There isn't hyperinflation in Brazil. There hasn't been in twenty years. If he's saying there is, then I wouldn't trust anything else he says, either. Source: World Bank Annual inflation in Brazil, 2019: 3.73% 2018: 3.67% 2017: 3.45% 2016: 8.74% 2015: 9.03% 2014: 6.33% 2013: 6.20% 2012: 5.4...
by Forester
Mon May 25, 2020 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 23
Views: 1111

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

I wouldn't listen to the goldbugs on inflation. I would own gold after studying the Permanent Portfolio variations. Goldbugs make me want to sell gold because they smell of dumb money. You should figure out how much you want, 5% to 25%, write it down in your investment plan then ignore the noise.
by Forester
Sat May 23, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51561

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries? I wouldn't personally. Currency risk goes on the stock side of the portfolio for me. Long bonds are volatile enough without adding currency risk. I'm trying to imagine myself living in, say, Europe, and deciding to buy dismal 1%-yi...
by Forester
Fri May 22, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 26
Views: 1737

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

Google Patrick Ceresna, I think he has a (paid?) educational series on it, maybe on Youtube also.
by Forester
Fri May 22, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6788

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

I've noticed much interest in "tail risk" strategies lately. I think the "mispricing" of future volatility might be the next thing to disappear if the concept is packaged, sold & marketed to the public.
by Forester
Thu May 21, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119202

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

SCV total return is still at 2014 levels :?
by Forester
Wed May 20, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 296
Views: 22995

Re: Market timers thread

I'm not market timing any longer. The cost-benefit didn't make sense when timing is about a quarter of one's money, plus there's the mental strain & time involved. I am still interested in the subject but I'm coming to a view that market timing really needs 50%+ market drops to be worthwhile. Also, ...
by Forester
Wed May 20, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The Mighty USD
Replies: 47
Views: 3317

Re: The Mighty USD

Any guesses on whether the USD will continue stronger or weaker over the next 10 years? My gut feeling; USD peaks in 2021, trends weaker for the 2030s. Emerging markets out-perform US market. Then between 2025 & 2030 there's a financial crisis to a greater or lesser degree, with a flight to the US ...
by Forester
Wed May 20, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51561

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries? I wouldn't personally. Currency risk goes on the stock side of the portfolio for me. Long bonds are volatile enough without adding currency risk. I'm trying to imagine myself living in, say, Europe, and deciding to buy dismal 1%-yi...
by Forester
Wed May 20, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51561

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries? You should IMO, at least that 20% Currency risk is small, sine LTT have high volatility and when in conjunction with stocks, volatility still gets higher In my mind, exchange beteween major currencies like EUR/DOLLAR is about 8%, s...
by Forester
Tue May 19, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 20893

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

If it wasn't for the Great Depression more investors would be 100% equities. Surely that episode of history must give people pause for thought?
by Forester
Tue May 19, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478106

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Gold miners have quietly doubled since the low :greedy
by Forester
Tue May 19, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51561

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries? You should IMO, at least that 20% Currency risk is small, sine LTT have high volatility and when in conjunction with stocks, volatility still gets higher In my mind, exchange beteween major currencies like EUR/DOLLAR is about 8%, s...
by Forester
Mon May 18, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51561

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Should non-Americans have the bulk of their bonds in LT treasuries?
by Forester
Mon May 18, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478106

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Peter Schiff throws in the towel :o https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1262375120481538048?s=21 From that tweet: Just because we’ve gotten away with it for this long doesn’t mean we’re going to get away with it forever. I think we’re very, very close to a major collapse of the dollar, a major b...
by Forester
Sun May 17, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 49
Views: 8768

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

So GVAL has been destroyed by VTI. Is this a bad methodology or just unfavorable conditions? I like CAPE 10, but it is if you hold for 10 years you get the expected return. My concern is if they always re balance to the lowest 10 countries, isn't that not allowing enough time for the original portf...
by Forester
Sun May 17, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119202

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Wasn't there a model portfolio which was 30% emerging SCV & 70% bonds :)
by Forester
Sun May 17, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 132
Views: 8181

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

"It's risky to bet on one corner of the market. Always opt for a global index fund such as VT rather than VOO."
by Forester
Sat May 16, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 318
Views: 16109

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Maybe in isolation LT bonds are questionnable but held alongside stocks they'll likely provide rebalancing ammunition when it's most needed. I agree that "any" bond will be useful to rebalance a stock portfolio. How are LT bonds better than ST bonds for this job? Ex: If there is significant inflati...
by Forester
Sat May 16, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15395

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Elroy Dimson forecasts a 2% real return for the global 60/40.

Image
by Forester
Sat May 16, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 318
Views: 16109

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

I was answering to someone that was challenging the article’s point that long term bonds are for fools. The only fool is a long-term investor who owns bonds that AREN’T long-term bonds. Rekenthaler has it exactly backwards. Unless inflation for the next 20+ years is below the current YTM of this ET...
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments
Replies: 16
Views: 1363

Re: The fallacy of hedging stock market investments

For someone who is saving for long term goals like retirement, I submit there is no value in employing any hedging techniques other than the traditional asset allocation guidance. Sophisticated options collars and writing puts, covered calls, etc. has no place in the individual investor's toolkit. ...
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Does the] S&P include QQQ 100 and dow 30 stock
Replies: 13
Views: 3347

Re: [Does the] S&P include QQQ 100 and dow 30 stock

Tesla are only two profitable quarters away from S&P 500 inclusion(?)

https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/net_income
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

MTUM beating VOO handily today, seems to be due to the oversized Healthcare holdings. Pretty cool on Koyfin you can view the sector/stock return contribution, for each ETF, over different timeframes.
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The real economy - represented by small cap - looks very ugly. Clear downtrend, sagging back toward the March low. No need for despair. Bitcoin is up 10% since your post on Monday! Bitcoin correlated with equities; https://i.ibb.co/mDXCC9V/EXvgfwh-Wk-AEerxh.png Bitcoin peaked one month before the m...
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 36
Views: 4510

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

This is the first argument I've read against low vol which I think could have substance. More a statement than an argument but here you go; What’s interesting and I wonder about often is: outperformance of low vol historically, when the companies were discovered by investors from a bottom-up proces...
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119202

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The halcyon days of February 2020. Some of us were convinced this Economist cover heralded Peak FAANG. Instead; more pain :x

Image
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 36
Views: 4510

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

This is the first argument I've read against low vol which I think could have substance. More a statement than an argument but here you go; What’s interesting and I wonder about often is: outperformance of low vol historically, when the companies were discovered by investors from a bottom-up process...
by Forester
Fri May 15, 2020 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The real economy - represented by small cap - looks very ugly. Clear downtrend, sagging back toward the March low.
by Forester
Thu May 14, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looking forward to the decline in equities. SPX 1800 is when I jump back in. No charting magic here -- just have an ability to realise that [MACRO, non-noise] bad = down and good = up Sorry, but the data tells a different story than the narrative, and for all the aphorisms and boomer-isms thrown ab...
by Forester
Thu May 14, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't forget the Fed. I didn't trust the rally and expect long W. The economy will be in the dump for few years. But investors don't have many options. Right now they have dumped small caps and crowding into Technology and Healthcare stocks. NASDAQ is doing so much better that rest of the market. I...
by Forester
Thu May 14, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63021

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

US bank stocks are now only 5% above the recent low, not a healthy sign, pointing to zombification of the US economy, joining Europe & Japan. 0 rates, 0 growth.
by Forester
Wed May 13, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 252
Views: 16629

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Probably nothing to worry about, GLD leasing gold from the BoE

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/rona ... gold-bars/
by Forester
Wed May 13, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

In all serious this is a good time to make portfolio changes if one feels they're overly exposed. SPX 2800 is a dignified exit point.
by Forester
Wed May 13, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Who is telling the truth? The Nasdaq or the Russell 2000?
by Forester
Wed May 13, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

grettman wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:54 am
guyinlaw wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 6:45 pm
Volatility is back!! Too bad, they needed a senate hearing to see the challenges ahead..
Futures are up. Too bad it seems folks over reacted yesterday's events....
Junkbond Jerome disagrees with you.
by Forester
Wed May 13, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 252
Views: 16629

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

What spread were you guys paying a couple of years ago for a gold eagle/buffalo over the spot price? I've never paid attention before. In the USA it seems to be about 5% now and in the UK 10%. I can't see a good way to shift money out of gold ETFs without getting killed on the spread. Obviously it s...
by Forester
Tue May 12, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63021

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Stairs up but an elevator down. Negative rates are coming, no reason for the "smart money" to be bagholding stocks right now, risk reward looks poor.
by Forester
Tue May 12, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10000

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Crypto does have a massive number of uses for which it is well suited. For example, we prefer to take payment in crypto because the merchant costs are much, much lower. Credit card costs ~3%. We pay zero using Coinbase Commerce or 1% using our fancy invoicing system that does the conversion for us ...
by Forester
Tue May 12, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 16
Views: 689

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

Funds investing in commodity futures were all the rage 2006 to mid-2008 due to their recent run of good performance at the time. PIMCO's PCRIX fund topped out at a share price around $42 in July 2008. Since then, the price has fallen to (gasp) $4.41. It was certainly a lesson in avoiding performanc...
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10000

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Paul Tudor Jones is a trader and Bitcoin I would guess, is only one or two percent of his total positions.
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5577
Views: 478106

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Equal weight RSP still negative. More divergence FAANG vs everything else. Bringing forward the returns of the 2020s, we've been here before :P
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 296
Views: 22995

Re: Market timers thread

I think it's a good argument for diversifying signals across time series, SMA, crossover etc and varying the lookback periods. The GEM Antonacci model is quite popular and those folk are still long US stocks. Why Trend Models Diverge https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2020/03/why-trend-models-diverge/ ...
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 296
Views: 22995

Re: Market timers thread

Trend following works well with growth indices and poorly with value indices. Value does better in volatile and mean reverting periods, which trend tends to miss.

https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/trend-fol ... 199b14d48d
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119202

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Value is only cheap in relative terms, it's not absolutely cheap. Value is priced for a solid if unspectacular decade of returns. Growth OTOH might be dead money for a decade and go sideways; https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/05/11/absolute-value-versus-relative-value-a-quick-note-on-the-value-debate/
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119202

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Investors bailing on value https://i.ibb.co/mCLR5Cm/EXvrc-3-XQAA9d-E1.jpg --- Using Koyfin, comparing Vanguard growth & value. Growth AUM barely dented by the recent selloff (possibly helped by overall flow of money to lowcost ETFs) Vanguard Growth VUG $88.9B Flows 1month +6.07B 3month -832M 12month...
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bitcoin correlated with equities; https://i.ibb.co/mDXCC9V/EXvgfwh-Wk-AEerxh.png Bitcoin peaked one month before the market top in Jan 2018, bottomed two weeks before the market bottomed in late Dec 2018, peaked three weeks before the market in Feb 2020, and bottomed three weeks before the market i...
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bitcoin selling off is ominous for stocks; Bitcoin has been leading the stock market since late 2017. You've just trolling this site now, right? FANG + Uber + Tesla is not "the market". It's just pattern matching for the sake of pattern matching. If you try enough combinations of stocks, you can fi...
by Forester
Mon May 11, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626185

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bitcoin correlated with equities; https://i.ibb.co/mDXCC9V/EXvgfwh-Wk-AEerxh.png Bitcoin peaked one month before the market top in Jan 2018, bottomed two weeks before the market bottomed in late Dec 2018, peaked three weeks before the market in Feb 2020, and bottomed three weeks before the market in...