Search found 373 matches

by Forester
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 753
Views: 362659

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

I'm wondering if someone could give me some advice with this. I would like to gain more exposure to value and small caps with my portfolio. As someone who is not U.S based the general consensus is to either hold global cap weighting or to split between a developed markets and emerging markets fund....
by Forester
Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 151
Views: 16973

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

What makes these 'dividend (growth) investors' so confident about their strategy? Each of these clowns think they're the next Warren Buffet and that no one on Wall Street has heard of Buffet or Ben Graham. Then they start parroting Klarman's "margin of safety", throw in some Peter Lynch and now the...
by Forester
Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 753
Views: 362659

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

I'm wondering if someone could give me some advice with this. I would like to gain more exposure to value and small caps with my portfolio. As someone who is not U.S based the general consensus is to either hold global cap weighting or to split between a developed markets and emerging markets fund....
by Forester
Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Individual Stock Investing Increases Risk
Replies: 52
Views: 2761

Re: Larry Swedroe: Individual Stock Investing Increases Risk

Not to nitpick, as I would whole heartily recommend a broad based index over individual stocks for most people, but Value line does it in 20 stocks... They may construct portfolios with 20 stocks, but that does not mean that they are diversifying away unsystematic risk. The overwhelming evidence is...
by Forester
Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 753
Views: 362659

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Thanks to everyone who has posted on this thread It has been very interesting to say the least. An allocation I have considered for a while for my whole equity allocation rather than Global cap weighting (U.K based) is 25% Developed Large Cap 25% Developed Small Cap 25% Developed Value 25% Emerging...
by Forester
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds reaching negative
Replies: 29
Views: 3343

Re: US Bonds reaching negative

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:58 pm


Currently, no Treasury securities of any term are anywhere close to being negative.
10 yr real interest rate is 0.21%. It was hovering around 2 to 2.5% right before the GFC.

https://www.multpl.com/10-year-real-interest-rate

The last time bonds were this risky was in the 1970s.
by Forester
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 116
Views: 9920

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

* and Paul Merriman too (not very popular voices on this forum).
by Forester
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 116
Views: 9920

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

60/40 portfolio in 2019: hedging expensive stocks with even more expensive bonds. What do you suggest as an alternative? Global diversification of stocks & bonds, tilt away from market cap megacap indexing, consider agriculture, gold, REITs etc, mix buy & hold with mechanical market timing. Meb Fab...
by Forester
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 753
Views: 362659

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Thanks to everyone who has posted on this thread It has been very interesting to say the least. An allocation I have considered for a while for my whole equity allocation rather than Global cap weighting (U.K based) is 25% Developed Large Cap 25% Developed Small Cap 25% Developed Value 25% Emerging...
by Forester
Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 116
Views: 9920

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

60/40 portfolio in 2019: hedging expensive stocks with even more expensive bonds.
by Forester
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

SCV is neck and neck with the S&P 500 since March '09, albeit more volatile. Large cap tech looks tired, probably in the 2020s the popular conclusion will be, yes SCV is worth it but one needs to be patient.
by Forester
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Wouldn't the relative risk of large cap & small cap (and value vs growth) shift over time? 1999/2000 being the obvious example.
by Forester
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 116
Views: 9920

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

I think he is correct at least regarding 60/40. Bonds have been safe for about four decades, this is long enough for complacency to take hold. Yes bonds will move counter to stocks in the short term but they do look risky on a longer horizon.
by Forester
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hesitate to post this (the sky is falling again on BND) but...
Replies: 28
Views: 3980

Re: I hesitate to post this (the sky is falling again on BND) but...

People who are bond-heavy could have exposure to gold, say 5% in GDX.
by Forester
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8157

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

Drones knocked 50% of Saudi oil supply. Oil price is rising.. If it stays high for a sustained period along with the tariffs, it will not be good. Historical oil chart shows that price has spiked before recessions. Is it prudent to reduce stock exposure now? Yes market timing is bad.. Stocks have b...
by Forester
Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 6022

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

If I was a lazy billionaire

25% stocks
25% REITs
25% bonds
25% gold
by Forester
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

hdas wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:44 am
It’s interesting to note that the best value funds this week were (in order):

BOSVX
VFVA
VIOV / IJS
QVAL
ZIG

Cheers :greedy
also iShares FOVL which is their answer to QVAL
by Forester
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Aha, now I have the MSCI data. Month-end data before the ETFs went live around 2011, which is good enough. Min vol & large cap both exit in Feb 2008 and both re-enter in Nov 2009.
by Forester
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

I stand by my original statement that investors were better off avoiding Arnott's funds. For a real stinker take a look at his latest "multi-factor" funds vs TSM. Though in fairness they have only been around for less than 5 years. Since inception, they have outperformed total market. VT (Vanguard ...
by Forester
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham fans: what did "diversification" mean to Graham?
Replies: 33
Views: 2059

Re: Benjamin Graham fans: what did "diversification" mean to Graham?

Graham would have been an indexer I think. By the 1970s preferred checklists to exhaustive qualitative analysis.
by Forester
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the stock market may continue to go up
Replies: 10
Views: 2300

Re: Why the stock market may continue to go up

The market is global stocks, half of those are priced on the rich side, the other half are reasonable to cheap - according to the experts. So, stocks should do OK.
by Forester
Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Investors in S&P 500 index funds have been far better off than investing in Arnott's funds....just saying.... March 9th 2009 to present, total return RAFI US +493% S&P 500 +445% and the RAFI fund is sitting on cheaper PE, PB as it looks like value is on an uptick. That is a bizarrely specific date ...
by Forester
Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Alchemist wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:48 pm

Investors in S&P 500 index funds have been far better off than investing in Arnott's funds....just saying....
March 9th 2009 to present, total return

RAFI US +493%

S&P 500 +445%

and the RAFI fund is sitting on cheaper PE, PB as it looks like value is on an uptick.
by Forester
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

When you factor tilt in fact you are less diversified, and random movement of equity prices during short periods is not indicative of a long term outperformance. On the tech bubble; "An average (401k) participant with $100,000 invested in a Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index Fund lost more than $45,...
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:52 pm

The lesson is clear: It is dangerous to bet on one corner of the stock market.
Sounds like the case for SCV alongside TSM !
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

USMV is very blue chip... Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, Microsoft, Mastercard etc. If it's a 2000 or 2008 selloff then USMV will follow suit. USMV should be SPY but a smoother journey which is ideal for trend following.
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This is crazy - iShares has 8 large cap US value ETFs!
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

nps wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:11 am

Interestingly it also found that a 50% trend following stock and 50% bond portfolio had a meaningfully lower SWR than 4%.
But this would only be exposed to stocks 35% over the long term.
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Not sure what to make of this - which fund will likely to better over the next decade, small cap value or a cheaper large cap value?

iShares VLUE
PB 1.4
PE 10.0
CF 3.8

iShares IJS
PB 1.3
PE 13.7
CF 5.2

WisdomTree DES
PB 1.5
PE 14.2
CF 5.7
by Forester
Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Has anyone considered using low volatility funds/ETFs with trend following? I pair USMV off against rest of the world, using Excel to create a low vol ex-US proxy from EFAV & EEMV. I understand that studies of momentum by convention must use the S&P 500, but I'm trying to generate returns. If a low...
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
Replies: 52
Views: 5329

Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?

How about global REITs?
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

MSCI Europe Growth now more expensive relative to Value, than March 2000 (composite of value metrics)

https://twitter.com/cape_invest/status/ ... 31584?s=21
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

BlueEars wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:28 am
Forester wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:23 am
Another way to reduce whipsaws is to follow an asset that's less volatile than SPY.
Suggestions?
I would trend follow USMV rather than spending time trying to massage/filter SPY's returns
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 55
Views: 12391

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

I also can not find too compelling a reason to reach out on duration at this moment. Perhaps US rates will go negative and join other countries, but if that occurs, I would think that means there are economic problems afoot. Uhh... that's the point of bonds, to do better than your stocks when there...
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Since this paper was published on SSRN, US value is up 4.7%, vs 2.17% for growth :mrgreen:
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Another way to reduce whipsaws is to follow an asset that's less volatile than SPY.
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 55
Views: 12391

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

I also can not find too compelling a reason to reach out on duration at this moment. Perhaps US rates will go negative and join other countries, but if that occurs, I would think that means there are economic problems afoot. Uhh... that's the point of bonds, to do better than your stocks when there...
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:16 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is investment in Eurozone bonds really speculation? And is gold likely to be a better hedge in case of a disaster?
Replies: 28
Views: 1538

Re: Is investment in Eurozone bonds really speculation? And is gold likely to be a better hedge in case of a disaster?

Yes they are a speculation similar to Dotcom stocks or Bitcoin because they need to be passed on to "greater fools". Respectable speculation. LT US bonds are nearly as bad.
by Forester
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26245

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Yesterday was the biggest 1-day momentum shift since 2009. The best stocks yesterday were the worst stocks YTD.

-@sentimenttrader, Twitter

Value ETFs versus QQQ since late August https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf ... q,qval,zig
by Forester
Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I found it interesting when some say I'm too confident in say small value. I'm no more or less confident in SV than I am in market beta--or any other factor/asset class that meets the criteria. But I'm also not less confident. Again, my crystal ball is cloudy so I don't want to make a big bet by co...
by Forester
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 140
Views: 9928

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

Foreign stocks can't have been this cheap relative to US stocks, since the late 1990s.
by Forester
Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 921
Views: 62426

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I wonder if the "cultural memory" of Dotcom & GFC will mean we'll have to wait a long time for trend following profits. The experience of German citizens with hyperinflation meant that the German Central Bank (ECB today) is relatively hawkish, up to the present day. Sometimes commentators will say, ...
by Forester
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4261

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

In 2019 a leveraged equity ETF is more conservative than a bond fund :sharebeer
by Forester
Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Outlook
Replies: 12
Views: 1488

Re: Market Outlook

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-credited-with-calling-the-2008-crisis-says-the-next-20-years-in-the-stock-market-will-break-a-lot-of-hearts-2019-03-07?mod=fbpdcmpn&kwp_0=1355110&kwp_4=4218206&kwp_1=1762435&fbclid=IwAR1MCLoxNFjWIWucNcDaejhogWTS9iNNaQhsry7RmRrSVYNqjCM2U8af4Rg So apparently...
by Forester
Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Value has indeed been experiencing a period of underperformance, and it isn't just because of a lousy definition of value because QVAL and IVAL have not been able to escape from it. Yes but it's possible that a firmer definition of value, in a concentrated portfolio, would perform worse than a milq...
by Forester
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

QMOM, MTUM, SPY https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?QMOM,MTUM,spy QMOM isn't that sophisticated, I don't know about MTUM. QMOM might be an argument against a naive academic factor approach. It goes to show that Value or Momentum in the abstract is not the same thing as a Value or Momentum fu...
by Forester
Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Value has indeed been experience and period of underperformance, and it isn't just because of a lousy definition of value because QVAL and IVAL have not been able to escape from it. Yes but it's possible that a firmer definition of value, in a concentrated portfolio, would perform worse than a milq...
by Forester
Sat Sep 07, 2019 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

My issue is that value advocates have long and vociferously defended book to market, including claims of a persistent history and working out of sample and including some claims of superiority over p/e or p/cf. It's the defining value characteristic in the Fama French three factor model, which has ...
by Forester
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 16589

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

QVAL holds 40 stocks from a universe of 1,000, IVOV holds 295 stocks from the Mid Cap 400. Also look at the value characteristics. And because one has done worse than the other would make sense if it's a concentrated bet on value. There may be other issues such as overweight certain sectors (in the...
by Forester
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 914
Views: 52145

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I only see this strategy working with vol targeting, holding leveraged LT bonds could get ugly.