Search found 889 matches

by DB2
Wed May 20, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I found the following trio of messages above amusing. Paraphrasing: -The virus will return worse in the fall. -That is already priced in. -How do you know it will be returning worse in the fall? So one person is certain it’s coming back, and that is the basis for future stock market shocks ahead. T...
by DB2
Wed May 20, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression: We are in a depression...and it might get worse. You cannot just turn off the economy like a light switch and expect to flip it back on at some (undetermined) point and think al...
by DB2
Wed May 20, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

We are in a depression...and it might get worse. By the way, comparing what we are currently experiencing to a depression, I think is incredibly insulting to people who have actually had to live through a depression, either in the US, or in other countries that have experienced actual depressions i...
by DB2
Wed May 20, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression: Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoi...
by DB2
Wed May 20, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

In a thread comparing the "current recession" (at the time we were not even in a recession, yet) to the great depression: Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoi...
by DB2
Tue May 19, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fans of VTWAX, what do you think of REITs?
Replies: 2
Views: 294

Re: Fans of VTWAX, what do you think of REITs?

I don't know about individual REITs. I think as many more jobs, services, and shopping continue to shift online, certain segments of real estate is going to come under incredible pressure for years to come which could drag on these funds.
by DB2
Sat May 16, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63009

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I don’t think the bottom is behind us. While things may seemingly be “getting back to normal” in parts of the country, no one in the NY Metropolitan area is rushing to pack a restaurant. Being open for business when your clientele is down 20%-50% is as bad if not worse than being closed with govern...
by DB2
Sat May 16, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 312
Views: 15728

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Long term treasuries are a bubble that will pop once inflation picks up. I know this because the shoe shine boys of today, aka Facebook groups and message boards are all talking about why they're such a great investment over other types of bonds and sometimes even stocks. Just look at their perform...
by DB2
Thu May 14, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9343

Re: International market recovery

Honestly, having read dozens and dozens of these kind of threads (maybe over 100 by now?) something has stood out to me. Now there are exceptions here , but: I notice a lot of the U.S. vs International preference often comes down to age demographics. Much of the older ages kind of take on the "Ameri...
by DB2
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 2425

Re: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?

All of this second-guessing is one of the reasons I just go with global market weight and let it ride. It's behaviorally easy for me to comply with. The market will do what it does, and I don't have to worry about fiddling or re-examining if my tweakery or tilts were right nor not. Hey, I was wonde...
by DB2
Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3498

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer limits on bank savings accounts

I'm more worried about this part of the article: In March, the Fed scrapped its reserve requirements for bank accounts as part of a broader effort to keep funds flowing to businesses and households amid the pandemic. Previously, banks were required to hold a certain amount of reserves against funds...
by DB2
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I am thoroughly convinced the economic landscape and Fed policies since 2008 have greatly benefited large cap growth...and this will continue.
by DB2
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16393

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

All of those periods of underperformance have things in common--ultra low interest rates, ultra low inflation, stagnant of absent GDP growth. I do not believe this is a mere coincidence. My belief is the macro-economic background that calls the tune for SCV. Excellent post and insight. In a low gro...
by DB2
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Us government buying their own bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1779

Re: Us government buying their own bonds?

The Fed is buying junk bonds too. Any source from the Fed website to prove this? They have not bought any yet, and may not have to. Perhaps this Bloomberg article will clarify the point: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/fed-didn-t-actually-have-to-buy-anything-to-rescue-bond-etfs?...
by DB2
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad is Forecast GDP Growth for 2020?
Replies: 31
Views: 2059

Re: How Bad are Forecast GDP Growth Rates for 2020?

Catastrophe is more apropos than bad. Seems that way to me. Here's something to chew on. What if no treatment or vaccine for the virus is available for 18 months or longer? If this is the case (and those in the industry are saying that it almost certainly is true for vaccines at least), we may go t...
by DB2
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13140

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

I agree with Ray Dalio on this. Bonds look good in the rear view mirror, because interest rates were higher in the past. If you buy bonds and interest rates fall, that's good news, because you earn an above-market yield. If you want to sell rather than hold your bonds in this scenario, you get to s...
by DB2
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success
Replies: 55
Views: 3359

Re: BOOK: Fully Grown, Why a Stagnant Economy is a Sign of Success

Al Bartlett: "Steady growth is the center piece of the entire global economy. ... Growth is a dead end." "You cannot sustain population growth, you cannot sustain growth in the rates of consumption of resources. Period. It's not debatable. It's based on arithmetic; it's not debatable, unless you wa...
by DB2
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4102

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

Wow. Are you very bullish on gold or very bearish on stocks or both? I'm bearish on the U.S. in general (virus has nothing to do with it as I believe a severe recession was going to happen at some point). But I believe we will see a massive dollar decline and strong inflation at some point in the 2...
by DB2
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6571

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Just because we've gone through a patch where we don't have an inflation problem, doesn't mean it's now impossible to ever again have inflation. It's amazing to me how many people really believe this. Almost like saying because we've gone 12 years or so without a recession, it's something we've mas...
by DB2
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4102

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

Gotta go with AAPL. Exactly. Or Microsoft or Amazon Microsoft is up a little more than 3-fold since 2000 (not including dividends). Gold is up 5-fold. I believe the price of gold will be around half the number of the Dow at some point in the 2020s. The last time this happened was around 1980 if I r...
by DB2
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8179

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

It's just a headfake. We are less than 2 months into this market decline. During The GFC it took >16 months for SP500 to drop 56% from its peak to bottom. During DotCom bust it took 30 months for 45% drop. We are less than 2 months in and already at 25% drop. I think we are just getting started. Ga...
by DB2
Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think by next week we test the lows (and break them).
by DB2
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes
Replies: 84
Views: 7488

Re: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes

In the short term, sure it's not hard to do some stock picking for short term investing and trading. It's pretty easy to see what companies are doing well today given the circumstances and how this will continue for the shorter term. However, for a long term investor, I don't think s/he should bothe...
by DB2
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11480

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

I'm in the middle of refinancing my home loan (will be going from 4.5% to 3.37%). FYI, I am almost 48 years old and will be working 20 more years. I was going to do a 20-year fixed, but decided to go to 30 year fixed. Only about 1/8th difference in rates, but wanted the extra liquidity and cash flow...
by DB2
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short
Replies: 19
Views: 1710

Re: Expectations for recession: Sharp but hopefully short

When the analysts at the website fivethirtyeight.com did their final modeling for the 2016 presidential election, in 70% of the cases Clinton won and in 30% Trump won. “Most likely outcome” didn’t make the correct call in the end. Anyway, did you have a question? Two different things. Fivethirtyeig...
by DB2
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18179

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

lgs88 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:33 am
I just don't see why I should own GM but not Toyota.
Agreed (and if I had to choose, I would take Toyota over any of the big 3 for the long haul).
by DB2
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12252

Re: There Is No Gold

IAU, SGOL, OUNZ, and GLD are trusts backed by physical gold. In the long term their value should reflect their underlying assets. If the ETFs are trading at a ~10 percent discount to physical gold, it likely reflects a short-term preference for physical bullion vis-a-vis non-physical bullion that w...
by DB2
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8664

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

We will will 29,500 again, but I prefer to look at global market cap weighting. That makes the Dow less relevant vs being 100% U.S. stock.
by DB2
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?
Replies: 52
Views: 3882

Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:39 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm
So was this a suckers' rally?
What's the difference between a bear rally and a sucker's rally?
A sucker's rally is someone who thinks the rally is real (and might buy because of that) when in all reality, it's just a bear market rally where lower lows are likely. More of a fake-out.
by DB2
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar
Replies: 21
Views: 3433

Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

He's one of the few out there I like to listen to.
by DB2
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 252
Views: 16629

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

The rock collectors showed up this week. ^ Bagholder of government paper promises! Wise to own a little of everything! When gold is $3,000 I'll be rebalancing out of that into the stocks & bonds you indirectly sell me. Not to mention gold is not a rock. lol Gold has been whooping the S&P 500 since ...
by DB2
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market? Can you please quote me where...
by DB2
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Stay the course does not mean never ever adjust your course. When your goal changes your route changes; when an obstacle appears in your path you steer around it. You can in fact change course as needed. You just need to be deliberate about it, not always chasing after the latest hot trend. I do a ...
by DB2
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market? Can you please quote me where...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. I just don't see it personally. The virus seemed to peak in other countries and they were back on their fe...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Think of it this way. The largest draw-down reached was 57% in the last crisis. The solution to the problem became clear and was 'fixed' relatively fast. What we have today is far worse and of greater magnitude to the overall economy. And then there is the health aspect. Solutions are unclear and ca...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 8969

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. What's the technical difference between a bad recession and a depression? Serious question. I don't know. ...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

People have been saying this for 12 years now. At some point those people might have to give up their model of how the economy works. I think the inflation went more into stock market and real estate all the while in the weakest GDP expansion in recent times. This time around, we get more that will...
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost Decade - 2000 - 2010 & International
Replies: 17
Views: 943

Re: Lost Decade - 2000 - 2010 & International

drk wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm
lostdog wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:47 pm
If you want back into International, now is the time to buy low. Can you stay the course if you get back in?
It's also a great time if one expects the US dollar to come down from its record highs.
Agreed.
by DB2
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I will be surprised if we don't have a depression.
by DB2
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296660

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think the boglehead religion does a lot of good for most people. Unfortunately a flaw is not understanding how to value businesses (hence why it works for so many people because they don’t need to understand this with the BH philosophy). But... the reality is that the markets are made up of busin...
by DB2
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 11714

Re: I won the game but kept playing

Market is really risky and the 50% loss figure we always throw around here for bad bears is certainly not a rule. It can go lower and right now it looks like we might lose more than that in the next month as the cases spike and suffering is at a max. You can plan using fancy spreadsheets, withdrawa...
by DB2
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18402

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:39 am
DB2 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:36 pm
Fed is stepping in doing lots of muni bond purchases.
I thought that was just for muni MM bonds?
I'll have to double check again.
by DB2
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37747

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

"Who thinks it would be prudent to move all or part of your VFIAX into VCSAX?" The only prudent move would be to go cash right now. Or you think "it is just a flu". You bet. Just understand some countries have already answered this question. And the answer is no, it's not just a flu. I think a majo...
by DB2
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now Compared to 1973-5
Replies: 7
Views: 652

Re: Now Compared to 1973-5

Long term treasuries were tanking big time for a couple of weeks (4-5+% drops a day) as there were liquidity issues in the market until the Fed stepped in. They've since turned it around. I think up close to around 7% today.
by DB2
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37747

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

DOW 11,000. This is going to get much worse because the fundamentals were shaky. The Fed was injecting over $600b of "not QE" into the overnight repo market since September, only weeks after many analysts, writers and economists thought that we were headed for recession in August. The markets went ...
by DB2
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18402

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

Fed is stepping in doing lots of muni bond purchases.
by DB2
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 162
Views: 14611

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

A DOWN market is not the same a down market. Please elaborate. If it is a "normal" down market, you may add to it. However, what we are going through is not normal up and down. We don't know how it is going to play out. Not a time for a reckless action. It is like a joining a side in the midst of a...