Search found 338 matches

by DB2
Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 133
Views: 12094

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

For the BOJ to own 80% of its ETFs strikes me as absolutely astonishing. Imagine for a second if the federal reserve owned 80% of S&P 500. What market power would you have to sell enough shares, thereby lowering the price until the price was efficient? Can you outshort the federal reserve? Can you ...
by DB2
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strength training is like investment
Replies: 46
Views: 3709

Re: Strength training is like investment

As someone who has been lifting very steadily for the last 30 years, I have always felt there is a lot of similarity in regards to general investing principals often discussed on this forum.
by DB2
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8379

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

To be fair OP is bringing some new data points to table. What new points are those? It seems to me that it's just the same story that it's been for a long while now: the U.S. is continuing to outperform ex-U.S. at a significant pace. Probably a full 98 to 99 percent of the topics on the forum are r...
by DB2
Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?
Replies: 43
Views: 12222

Re: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?

What percentage of Global Wellington is U.S.?
by DB2
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1099

Re: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?

I don't know why long term govt treasuries get no love around here. 30 year duration for a few bips more than a savings account? I can't imagine the problem : ) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAlig...
by DB2
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1099

Re: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?

I don't know why long term govt treasuries get no love around here.
by DB2
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Kids accounts: Vanguard Total World Stock
Replies: 36
Views: 3662

Re: Kids accounts: Vanguard Total World Stock

I pulled the trigger and placed the orders for VTWAX. Went with the mutual fund rather than the ETF so the entire sum could be invested with no cash left over. Expense ratio difference will be immaterial for now. Just had a great discussion with my kids about this. My 13 year old especially was ver...
by DB2
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Kids accounts: Vanguard Total World Stock
Replies: 36
Views: 3662

Re: Kids accounts: Vanguard Total World Stock

I pulled the trigger and placed the orders for VTWAX. Went with the mutual fund rather than the ETF so the entire sum could be invested with no cash left over. Expense ratio difference will be immaterial for now. Just had a great discussion with my kids about this. My 13 year old especially was ver...
by DB2
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3279

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

What's the chance of my Total World Index Fund not recovering? When you say "not recovering" are you talking about a specific time span? Yes... a long time; but I think I already know the answer to my question. Little to none. And if it doesn't recover, then I have much bigger things to worry about...
by DB2
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Ray Dalio's Risk Parity "All-Weather" portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 3048

Re: Thoughts on Ray Dalio's Risk Parity "All-Weather" portfolio?

Hello everyone. I'm a fan of Ray Dalio. He suggests: gold and commodities for inflation, long term treasuries for deflation, stcks for growth, I did not understand the role of intermediate treasuries. Someone can explain it to me, thanks. My only guess is that since long term treasuries will be mor...
by DB2
Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?
Replies: 30
Views: 3279

Re: How long does it take to come out of a major downtunr?

dogagility wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:57 pm
What's the chance of my Total World Index Fund not recovering?
When you say "not recovering" are you talking about a specific time span?
by DB2
Wed May 29, 2019 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 20635

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Most people don’t appreciate that a typical 60/40 portfolio has 85-90% of its risk wrapped up in a single factor. Dave, I’m still not sure that I see factors as diversifying assets with higher risk adjusted returns. But I’m curious as to how much diversification the factor gurus think you can reall...
by DB2
Sun May 26, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns
Replies: 79
Views: 9035

Re: Vanguard issues 10-year forecast for stock, bond market returns

In 2009 Vanguard said 10 year returns for US equities would be in the 8-10% range. They were off in the 3-5% range. They know nothing more than anyone else. Page 2: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrsme.pdf Maybe they were underestimating buybacks? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/25/the-stock-marke...
by DB2
Sun May 26, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29128

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

OK, let's say that one were convinced by plausible arguments and backtesting, of the merits of adding a 5% allocation of gold to one's 3 fund portfolio. The idea being that, even in case of a non-catastrophe, having a small percentage could serve as a good diversifier in periods of high-inflation e...
by DB2
Sat May 25, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Set-It-and-Forget-It Target-Date Series From Vanguard"
Replies: 120
Views: 14502

Re: "A Set-It-and-Forget-It Target-Date Series From Vanguard"

I'm surprised by how aggressive these target-date funds are. For instance, at 10 years from retirement, they still allocate 70% in equities. I don't know, maybe it's just me who's unreasonably conservative... Your conservatism might be perfectly reasonable for you, but 65% to 75% equities at age 55...
by DB2
Thu May 23, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12343
Views: 2132565

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I find it very interesting that while economy seems to be doing just fine and we are seeing record unemployment, etc, S&P 500 is actually back to where it was about 18 months ago. Remember that the market is forward looking. Arguably, the market anticipated back in 2017 that we would be where we ar...
by DB2
Thu May 23, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?
Replies: 20
Views: 1237

Re: Why will US or global stocks continue to grow in the future and forever?

Thesaints wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 5:49 pm
Leveraged100to1 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 1:12 pm
What would it take for all the world's major stock indices like the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 to be lower 50 years from now than they are today?
No earnings growth ?
+1
by DB2
Thu May 23, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How total market funds rebalance sectors
Replies: 10
Views: 840

Re: How total market funds rebalance sectors

Actually this was an independent advisor who was recommending I just do 3 hours with him and then self manage after that. He is a fiduciary and is not affliliated with any brokerage or financial funds company. Having said that I struggle with the recommendations he gives. Just as was mentioned abov...
by DB2
Thu May 23, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Market and Economic Perspectives: May 2019
Replies: 8
Views: 778

Re: Vanguard Market and Economic Perspectives: May 2019

A question I would ask is, if nobody really knows anything, why in particular should we trust Vanguard’s thoughts on the future (just as anyone else’s)? The answer is that some people actually do know some things. I'm not saying you, personally, need to act on Vanguard's estimates just that are mor...
by DB2
Sun May 19, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29128

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I personally echo dbr's sentiment on this one. What's the point of 5%? It's not enough to make a difference even if somehow the circumstances align exactly like the 70s so that stocks and bonds tank and gold skyrockets. If you're not going to do at least 10% of the asset, you probably might as well...
by DB2
Sun May 19, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29128

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

To keep all this in context, Bogle was investing for the Blair Academy Scholarship Fund and his allocation was 45% Wellington, 45% Balanced Index, 5% Emerging Markets Index, and 5% Gold. He said this represented about 62% stocks and he liked that the managers at Wellington could make changes as the...
by DB2
Sat May 18, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?
Replies: 74
Views: 9147

Re: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?

Below are 3 portfolios. Each one has an initial balance of 10k and has another 10k contributed every year. One portfolio 100% in Large Cap, next 100% in Mid Cap, and last 100% in Small Cap. https://i.imgur.com/j6WyTy8.png https://i.imgur.com/54HmKTn.png Mid Cap outperforms both Small & Large with h...
by DB2
Thu May 16, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 39
Views: 5860

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

I've got a question, David. If we look at the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt fund VWITX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VWITX) the 30 day yield is 1.99%. It's been around 2% much of the year. However, when I look at the distributions it's showing in the 2.70% range for eac...
by DB2
Thu May 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 76
Views: 8642

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

skierrex wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 9:12 pm
How many sectors do you need before you are invested in the total market?
There are 11 sectors.
by DB2
Thu May 16, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 9367

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

A not-to-be-ignored-factor is the Founder Factor. WalMart is a classic case of a business that has struggled since its Founder died. Apple has done very well since Steve Jobs died, but it is arguable that it is not as innovative in terms of products as it was under his leadership. Microsoft certain...
by DB2
Thu May 16, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ETFs Replace Traditional Funds
Replies: 87
Views: 5259

Re: Will ETFs Replace Traditional Funds

I would think just having actively managed mutual funds alone will always keep them alive.
by DB2
Wed May 15, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10,000% inflation in USA?
Replies: 19
Views: 1665

Re: 10,000% inflation in USA?

Furthermore, the cause of Venezuela's crisis are not the same as in US. They doubled down on the oil economy, took over all goods distributors, and socialized all services. So, when government institutions failed, you cannot buy goods, since no private entities can import them. Yet a growing number...
by DB2
Wed May 15, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 4035

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

I've developed a lot more appreciation for bonds since I started investing; balanced portfolio is truly key.
by DB2
Tue May 14, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 356
Views: 187082

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

Fascinating thread...especially reading those Oct 2008 posts.
by DB2
Sun May 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3670

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

I agree that despite its flaws and some of the rather erroneous conclusions that some of its proponents put forward, modern monetary theory seems to be the most explanatory and predictive theory of how money functions at the macro level. I want to make it clear that there are limits on everything. ...
by DB2
Sat May 11, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I bet on S&P500
Replies: 51
Views: 3349

Re: Why I bet on S&P500

I'm just following Bogle and Buffet on SP500 as in point 1. I firmly believe that I know nothing, but found it strange why the former are dogmatic about the choice. With all due respect to Bogle (RIP) and Buffet, and they have done great things for US investors, my investment horizon exceeds their ...
by DB2
Sat May 11, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years
Replies: 60
Views: 7794

Re: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years

I think what makes Wellington and Wellesley particularly effective is investor behavior. While it's true other combinations of funds could have been used to achieve very similar results, it would have been very difficult to do for many investors and to handle through ups and downs. I like balanced f...
by DB2
Fri May 10, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3670

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

And finally I would add that our debt to gnp is reaching levels that suggest economic growth will be slower caused by crowding out---see Japan, Italy and so on. That would mean lower profit growth as well than expected. Forewarned is forearmed. Best wishes Larry What is meant by “crowding out”? Tha...
by DB2
Thu May 09, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks really "Chernobyl" risky for people near/in retirement?
Replies: 23
Views: 3058

Re: Stocks really "Chernobyl" risky for people near/in retirement?

I like the idea of bonds-to-age in retirement (e.g., If you're 70 years old, then 70% bonds), but that's just my take right now at 47 with 20 more years to work. I might think differently when I get closer to retirement. The multi-bucket approach that has been discussed is interesting too. People ha...
by DB2
Thu May 09, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3670

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

to be helpful few quick thoughts 1) believing real interest rates can go lower as suggested without having resulted from lower than expected growth and thus earnings makes a big mistake. There is cause and effect here. And today's valuations reflect certain expected growth rate of economy which wou...
by DB2
Wed May 08, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years
Replies: 60
Views: 7794

Re: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years

I was surprised to find that since 1999, the cumulative return from Vanguard Wellesley ( about 1/3 stocks and 2/3 bonds) has matched the returns from being 100% invested in Vanguard's total stock market fund VTSMX (274% vs. 287%), while Vanguard's Wellington has beaten the pants off VTSMX (436% cum...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: indexing No Risk To Market
Replies: 4
Views: 821

Re: Larry Swedroe: indexing No Risk To Market

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 11:58 pm
What it has done is put a big dent in the paycheck of many active managers.
And this is the reason behind 99% of the articles out there claiming of the dangers from indexing.
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to reduce dividends?
Replies: 27
Views: 5261

Re: How to reduce dividends?

For what it's worth, looking back to the last 10 years (of course, no guarantee of the future), VTCLX seems to have a very slight tax advantage over VTSAX even taking in account expense ratio. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/vanguard/compare?navigatingFrom=6 It's likely why Vanguard uses some...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 8035

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Not suggesting a Vanguard conspiracy, just questioning making a decision based on Vanguard's publish macro research for a 10 year period especially when it dovetails right into what they are increasingly selling. Vanguard may very well believe this to be the proper course for investors, just not su...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 42
Views: 5091

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

It's important to remember that there's another remedy for black swans that is more tax efficient, less costly, and produces higher long term returns than the Swan ETF. It requires a strong investor stomach, a balanced portfolio, and in the absence of a secure income stream, a liquid emergency fund...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 8035

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Am I suspicious of any company that had been steady adding International (or any asset class) to their multi-asset products then telling me how great it is to own what they added. Also, I know of no reason to consider Vanguard a good, bad or indifferent source of macro economic guidance and conside...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 8035

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

I invest in U.S. index funds and ETFS. I trade International Index funds and ETFs. Frankly, I am suspicious of any investment company advice that is basically selling their book. You're suspicious of Vanguard? Really? Am I suspicious of any company that had been steady adding International (or any ...
by DB2
Tue May 07, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 8035

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Don’t waste your time arguing international AA. Instead go read the latest 5 threads started today by 100% US AA Bogleheads convincing themselves they are doing the right thing....oh wait. The reality is, I don’t think 500 years of US out performance data would convince many to change their plan, t...
by DB2
Sun May 05, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: adjusting international in AA, gradual or cold turkey?
Replies: 15
Views: 982

Re: adjusting international in AA, gradual or cold turkey?

i'm one of those people who have a healthy dose of international in my stock allocation. hypothetically speaking, if i wanted lower it substantially, what would be the best course of action? a) do nothing, stay the course. b) all new funds go into my "new" desired AA. c) put all the numbers into my...
by DB2
Sat May 04, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can muni funds fail like MBSes?
Replies: 6
Views: 723

Re: Can muni funds fail like MBSes?

Instead of long (VTEB), you could also go Intermediate (VWIUX) instead. With that said, I do believe there is significantly more risk to Muni bonds as has been mentioned. There are so many states and localities that are going to be in a real crunch in the next economic downturn. A number of these st...
by DB2
Fri May 03, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard randomly not reinvesting dividends
Replies: 37
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard randomly not reinvesting dividends

Which is going to take dollars to do both. If not, then why haven't they done it? Incompetence? I suppose that is possible. In all reality, high trading site or not, one gets the feel of a very antiquated Web site with Vanguard. It has a bit of late 1990s feel to it. When I go over to Fidelity, it'...
by DB2
Fri May 03, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard randomly not reinvesting dividends
Replies: 37
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard randomly not reinvesting dividends

IMO, the best they can do is step up their customer service while continuing to work on diligently in the back end. Which is going to take dollars to do both. If not, then why haven't they done it? Incompetence? I suppose that is possible. In all reality, high trading site or not, one gets the feel...
by DB2
Thu May 02, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard randomly not reinvesting dividends
Replies: 37
Views: 4656

Re: Vanguard system glitch?

Vanguard having a glitch in their system? Never. :wink:
by DB2
Thu May 02, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 10567

Re: "The market is overvalued"

It is hard to understand how one can believe the valuation today is even remotely comparable to the tech bubble. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio Perhaps you have forgotten the euphoria of people quitting their jobs to day trade, or every tech stock having huge gains immediately after their ...
by DB2
Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds doing it backwards?
Replies: 44
Views: 5307

Re: Huh

How many more years of underperformance do we need to finally shed the "long-term" SCV narrative? Huh.....IJS is doing very well for me as is the more mid cap VSIAX....sure small cap growth has had a recent run, but value in general has been great both large value and small value. Look at the long ...