Search found 137 matches

by PluckyDucky
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax breach settlement update?
Replies: 45
Views: 3289

Re: Equifax breach settlement update?

I passed on a "up to" class-action years ago assuming I wouldn't get any more than a couple of dollars. In that one - they ended up paying out the max which was $400 so I ended up kicking myself. I will take the "up to" $125 for a few minutes of filling out a web form. Some folks are thinking it wi...
by PluckyDucky
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax breach settlement update?
Replies: 45
Views: 3289

Re: Equifax breach settlement update?

While I haven't looked into it, I suspect that the attorney's were overzealous in offering $125 to each person affected. The final settlement will be far smaller (I am guessing $4), and they are likely giving folks a second chance to pick credit monitoring. However, if you look at the e-mail, the "...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?
Replies: 43
Views: 2262

Re: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?

My understanding is MEDICAL PAYMENTS can be $0 if you have an umbrella. Does that sound right? They have nothing to do with each other. Medical payments are for medical bills from being Injured in a car accident. If you have medical insurance they are redundant, except for maybe passengers who may ...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?
Replies: 43
Views: 2262

Re: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?

My understanding is MEDICAL PAYMENTS can be $0 if you have an umbrella. Does that sound right? They have nothing to do with each other. Medical payments are for medical bills from being Injured in a car accident. If you have medical insurance they are redundant, except for maybe passengers who may ...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?
Replies: 43
Views: 2262

Re: How does my auto insurance look to you? Is the coverage ok?

My understanding is MEDICAL PAYMENTS can be $0 if you have an umbrella. Does that sound right? No, no, no. Your umbrella is likely LIABILITY ONLY. MAX out the medpay and UM. That is what protects YOU. If you are hit by an uninsured or underinsured motorist and seriously injured, that $25k UM will n...
by PluckyDucky
Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice regarding company call options set to expire soon...
Replies: 14
Views: 421

Re: Advice regarding company call options set to expire soon...

Can't you sell the options? What's the price of the options?
by PluckyDucky
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying credit card "current balance" vs. "statement balance"
Replies: 48
Views: 4380

Re: Paying credit card "current balance" vs. "statement balance"

For those with the Citi Double Cash Back card -- I intentionally DO NOT have my rewards credited to my CC balance. I have them direct deposited into my checking account instead. Aren't you missing out on part of your rewards by having your balance reduced via rewards, instead of "paying" the higher...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates
Replies: 16
Views: 2567

Practically speaking, what are negative interest rates

Usually when there's a crash and recession, there is deleveraging. A lot of debt goes poof due to defaults and bankruptcy. But the system can keep going if we go into negative interest rates and keep lowering rates. But isn't that effectively beginning deleveraging at a much slower pace? Instead of ...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10424

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

Something stinks about his research though. He was hired by a hedge fund, with an incentive to produce a report that would send GE shares down, because a good part of his compensation for producing that report is tied to the value of his/the fund's short position in GE. Hardly an unbiased way to st...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018
Replies: 11
Views: 1244

Re: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018

The rise of mutual funds and 401ks didn't have anything to do it?

People aren't keeping money under the mattress anymore.
by PluckyDucky
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 115
Views: 10366

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Historically, high valuations (such as CAPE, q ratio) indicate lower future returns. Because the market usually goes up, that means a crash, not a long-term down trend. 10-2 yield curve hasn't closed negative, but it's almost there. It will start the clock. Keep your eyes open! :moneybag https://i.i...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500
Replies: 31
Views: 2364

Re: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500

+1. I use very high deductibles (or liability only) since I have bad experiences with claims costing me significantly more in increased premiums. One case was a comprehensive claim because someone damaged a convertible top. $1000 deductible, $2000 repair (so $1000 cost to insurer) and then my premi...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500
Replies: 31
Views: 2364

Re: $34 per year to reduce auto deductible by $500

+1. I use very high deductibles (or liability only) since I have bad experiences with claims costing me significantly more in increased premiums. One case was a comprehensive claim because someone damaged a convertible top. $1000 deductible, $2000 repair (so $1000 cost to insurer) and then my premi...
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ethics of "bonus payback" when quitting a job
Replies: 157
Views: 9767

Re: Ethics of "bonus payback" when quitting a job

JBTX wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:22 pm
I could speculate but I'd probably consult an employment lawyer.

Personally I wouldn't pay for it back if they never ask for it.
This. Such a contract provision may be unenforceable depending on the state.
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdoor Roth when market down?
Replies: 8
Views: 616

Backdoor Roth when market down?

How does a backdoor Roth work for taxes when the market is down? Say in the next crash, your portfolio is down 30% so that you don't have as much gains. You convert all to Roth, but little to no tax impact due to there not being much gains. Then you reinvest your money in the same funds to continue ...
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Losing a month's worth of work on a personal project
Replies: 15
Views: 1674

Re: Losing a month's worth of work on a personal project

Get it set up to restart, then take a break for awhile and come back later after you've had a chance to forget. Hopefully there's no time constraints on your project.
by PluckyDucky
Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth > Taxable > tIRA
Replies: 200
Views: 13661

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

If you're in the 32% tax bracket (there is no 30%), then how are you deducting your tIRA contributions? You're phased out. Nobody ever mentions the phaseouts in these discussions, which makes the discussions largely pointless. Phaseout for single is $74k in 2019 and for married filing jointly $123k...
by PluckyDucky
Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k, IRA and Roth IRA contribution limits
Replies: 10
Views: 471

Re: 401k, IRA and Roth IRA contribution limits

401k and IRA, but not both types of IRA the same year.
by PluckyDucky
Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 35% Bracket - Roth vs Traditional 401K
Replies: 39
Views: 1762

Re: 35% Bracket - Roth vs Traditional 401K

Aren't your tIRA tax deductions phased out if you're in the 35% bracket?

So you pay tax now and later with tIRA?

So if you do backdoor Roth IRA now, you can pay less tax "later" by paying tax now on your Roth IRA conversion money. Then it grows tax free forever.
by PluckyDucky
Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth > Taxable > tIRA
Replies: 200
Views: 13661

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

I think the way you frame a problem is important. This is how I frame tIRA contributions. Let's say you are 35 years old, working and earning money, and are in 30% tax bracket. You contribute $1,000 to a tIRA. If you did not contribute to tIRA, you would have paid $300 in taxes and had only $700 to...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get information - without being bombarded??
Replies: 6
Views: 726

Re: How to get information - without being bombarded??

Use burner info.

You can use google voice or apps for burner number.

Set up burner email.
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?
Replies: 33
Views: 2447

Re: Why do people believe stocks / bonds are not correlated?

... 3) It's not actually that big a deal, and it's difficult to explain. Rather than give the complicated explanation I just gave, people give a wildly exaggerated explanation in terms of negative correlation. Here's a Vanguard fund manager doing exactly that. He makes it clear that he's talking ab...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth > Taxable > tIRA
Replies: 200
Views: 13661

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

This really depends on all sorts of details. I'd rather PUT $1 in a 401k (which eventually becomes a tIRA), because that decreases our AGI by $1. That in turn increases our EITC (a refundable credit) by $.21. That in turn increases our state EITC by $.063. It also reduces our federal tax by $.10, w...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth > Taxable > tIRA
Replies: 200
Views: 13661

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

:idea: Clearly it is better to have $1,565,000 in a Roth than $2,000,000 in tIRA Even if you paid 37% tax on every one of the $1,565,000 dollars while working? 28% doesn't look so bad compared to 37%. No single example stands up because you can't know the future tax rates or how you will withdraw. ...
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

... Admitting this is not a very Boglehead line of thought, I'm specifically curious about #2. Market timing is hard. But monitoring interest rate changes and making adjustments after the fact is not. For the sake of argument, if the stock market has a significant drop and the Fed drops rates to ne...
by PluckyDucky
Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

... These problems arise because the options can be exercises earlier (they are not European). That makes a lot of the "nice" theoretical properties go away somewhat. If all of this sounds foreign, I'd stay away from mimicking the positions with options. I've taken some time to analyze it in the fo...
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Etrade denies promotion on $1 mil new account
Replies: 65
Views: 7522

Re: Etrade denies promotion on $1 mil new account

It’s just silly for a financial institution to insist that you have to click on a link in an unsolicited email to be eligible for a promotion when there own security policy tells you not to do that. From e*trade (emphasis added): - Be suspicious of email attachments from unknown sources, as well as...
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Are dividends auto reinvested in PSLDX? Or is the $25k min just the initial investment, but then you can add in any increments?
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

A few people have mentioned trying this strategy in a taxable account, but that discussion seems to have ended. Any thoughts re: the trade-off of holding LTTs in a taxable account if your marginal rate is, say, 35%? I'm doing it in taxable because my 401k/iras are maxed and I need to have money to ...
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

A few people have mentioned trying this strategy in a taxable account, but that discussion seems to have ended. Any thoughts re: the trade-off of holding LTTs in a taxable account if your marginal rate is, say, 35%? I'm doing it in taxable because my 401k/iras are maxed and I need to have money to ...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 161
Views: 13617

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

That's what I was looking for. Why did you use the dual momentum model? Is there a reason you look at indicators on the LETF instead of the underlying ETF? Is one way better than the other? It seems like the excellent adventure has been hashed out for the basic leveraged balanced portfolio idea and ...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 161
Views: 13617

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

Can you explain more on the mechanics of how it works?
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 161
Views: 13617

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

Hydromod, for your timing model, are you looking at the LETF or the underlying unleveraged ETF (or index) to determine your buy/sell signal?
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 161
Views: 13617

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

If we were going to switch from UPRO/TMF to UPRO/TMV, how would we know what to look for? There's been talk of the Fed changing it's goals in 1982, so how do we know if we go back to pre-1982 world?
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1506
Views: 149940

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

Thoughts? Reactions? Thoughts? We're near the top if not at it. This time is NOT different, once the Fed does actually cut, it's all over but the crying. Idiots gleefully bought in anticipation of and after fed cuts in 2007-2008 too. And what if it is like 1995? Rates were cut by 25 bps in the summ...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 161
Views: 13617

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

So from 55-82 you were in inverse TMF instead of TMF?

So much for rising rates being a problem!
by PluckyDucky
Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying cash for a vehicle
Replies: 87
Views: 10497

Re: Paying cash for a vehicle

The thing that really gets me is that even here of all places you will find the argument to leverage your car note. To buy more stocks. Instead of just buying a cheaper car. Incredible. I'd rather have a brand new Honda Civic with lifetime powertrain warranty and 36k bumper to bumper than a used hi...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If you believe that interest rates are more likely to rise than I do, the solution is simple, hold less TMF and more UPRO: We can now do data mining and parameter fitting on 64 years of data, representing only 1 interest rate cycle, combined with one assumption for the future. Problem is we don't k...
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how much to finance a new car at .9%
Replies: 57
Views: 4123

Re: how much to finance a new car at .9%

If you put the money in a 2.5% account, you would net $1.4466 per day for the difference in interest rates. Taking 40% off for taxes makes it a net of $0.87 per day. That's a free restaurant meal for you and another person each month. If you're paying 40% taxes, I don't know why you care about $25/m...
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how much to finance a new car at .9%
Replies: 57
Views: 4123

Re: how much to finance a new car at .9%

Finance 100% and put that money in a bank account that yields 2.5%

There is one Credit Union that does 5.09% up top $10k if you meet their terms every month.

There are MANY financial instutitons these days offering 2.3-2.6% APY with no required monthly conditions.
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the penalty for not having health insurance?
Replies: 25
Views: 2149

Re: What is the penalty for not having health insurance?

indexfundfan wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:27 pm
OP's location indicates NJ. Apparently, NJ has state individual mandate / penalty.
Who does that apply to?

What if I am there temporarily, or even for 4 years while in college, but not a resident?
by PluckyDucky
Thu Jun 27, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

... gw I don't have any beef with your arguments vis a vis the data; it's clear from the 1955-present backtest that if this strategy had been implemented starting in 1955 that the performance would have been marginal compared to a 100% S&P 500 portfolio and not worth the risk given the std dev and ...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a car out of state
Replies: 33
Views: 1896

Re: Buying a car out of state

One thing to look at is sales taxes. Depending on your state laws, and the laws of the state where you accept delivery, you might spend more or less on sales tax. (Hint: See if picking up the vehicle in a state that doesn't collect sales tax would save money.) Most if not all states require you to ...
by PluckyDucky
Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Will you confine yourself to quarterly rebalances no matter what happens? That’s what I plan to do. Lets say alien black swan muppets instigate a crash and over a series of days (or weeks) your UPRO gets severly punished, to where your ratio ends up being less than 10% UPRO. “Alien black swan muppe...
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

So playing around in excel, about 8.1X initial leverage let run is equivalent to 3X leverage daily rebalanced after 20 days of +5%, -5% alternating.
by PluckyDucky
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

How much does a margin loan at interactive brokers cost? It depends how much you borrow (more is better), and it varies with interest rates. You can see the latest rates here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1595 . It's much better than the ridiculous rates that other brokers char...
by PluckyDucky
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 273485

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Why “must” the returns due to leverage be arbitraged away in the long term? How long have ordinary Americans been leveraging their real estate holdings? Has that been arbitraged away? I started to reply with "but adding leverage to real estate increases risk, whereas the risk parity strategy doesn'...