Search found 230 matches

by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21605

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

alexfoo39, 1) Why would you buy a house in Malaysia at this moment ? 2) My 2.5 times net worth formula does not apply to Malaysia. <<I'm 31. If you were in my shoes, will you include this '401k (but not liquid and no withdrawal allowed)' in the net worth calculation?>> 3) I don't know. KlangFool 1)...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21605

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

1) The assumption is a 20% down payment . KlangFool I'm from Malaysia =) I read a lot about your financial philosophy, and I think it really suits my personality. Will be glad if you can share on these 1) My country allows 10% down payment on house, that's the standard. Some even offer 0% down paym...
by alexfoo39
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21605

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

i'm looking at 3.5% (flexi) and 4.5% fixed alexfoo39, 1) I do not trust the interest rate will stay this low over the whole duration of 10 to 30 years. 2) I believe that you could do better than 4.5% fixed. You should shop around. KlangFool You know, I'm from 'another country' in Asia. So yeah.... ...
by alexfoo39
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21605

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:20 am

4) The PITI of 20% down payment and 30 years fixed-rate mortgage needs to be 20% to 30% lowered than renting the same house. Or else, rent the house instead.

KlangFool
tq :D

in event that flexi rate is cheaper, should i go for it?

i'm looking at 3.5% (flexi) and 4.5% fixed
by alexfoo39
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21605

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

5) As per my rule, do not buy 1 million dollar house unless you have 2 million worth of investment elsewhere. KlangFool sry for bumping old thread. Do you mean I have 2m investment, so i sign up for a 90% loan for a 1m house? Or I have 3m investment, and i sign up for a 90% loan for a 1m house. Tha...
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is taking a monster hit
Replies: 64
Views: 5561

Re: Gold is taking a monster hit

If you believe in stock, lookup NYSEARCA:BAR as alternate gold investment.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. I have 10% position there. With US coming with 1 trillion stimulus, I am not surprised if these stimulus come in subsequent fashions just to keep the market from falling.
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697122

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Curious, to the 50/50 folks, how old are you? 50/50 club here. I’m 58, planning to retire in 4 years. During the Q4 2018 downturn I was at around 65/35 and realized my risk tolerance wasn’t as high as I’d thought. After the portfolio recovered I shifted to 50/50. 50/50 club reporting in. 31 this ye...
by alexfoo39
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10782

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

I bailed out. My country Malaysia is exercising strict control now having witnessed the fate of Italy. We don't want to be like them, and there are already numerous untracked cases and it's spreading fast. I'm now 0/100. Call me market timer or anything. Personally, I think I underestimated income r...
by alexfoo39
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9611

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

IPS says 50/50

age 31 this year

reason: I'm too young to see a downturn. I dial down my AA to see if i can handle my own investing behavior.

From top 52/48 now left 45/55

I'm thinking of calling it quit.
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

I think I missed out one important thing. The experience of losing one's job, and going through a prolonged season of being unemployed or underemployed. The loss of income, the depleting emergency fund, and the sights of doom and gloom around, for a longer period, is perhaps what I think the great d...
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some good books on market crashes?
Replies: 8
Views: 345

Re: What are some good books on market crashes?

I'm more of a visual guy. Great depression documentary off YouTube is good :)

The craziness of 90% equity leverage prior to 1929 crash...
by alexfoo39
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

The Amazon 'peek inside' that physiology book is very interesting. In my above post I had typed that people learn to gamble (it's not a personality issue) but then I deleted it. If you read anything on the long history of 'trading', it's interesting that it depends on the existence of a group of na...
by alexfoo39
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

If 2008 scenario is used as a benchmark, we are now only 1/3 through the downward trend. Hang on there. Experience like this is precious for investors so that in years ahead we will look back and see how did we react against behavioral pitfall. Now I know that looking at my portfolio on an hour basi...
by alexfoo39
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 120
Views: 57396

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

G. When the stock market takes a dive, ignore it. People will tell you to sell before you lose everything. Ignore the noise. The market drops 40 or 50 percent from time to time. Those who panic and sell only lock in their losses. Those who buy and hold will eventually be rewarded when the market reb...
by alexfoo39
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21164

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

100% with how much emergency fund?
by alexfoo39
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697122

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

How do you “sense the beginning of a turn”? Is this a 6th sense that the rest of us don’t have? Nope. I don't there is one thing I am taking into account that isn't common knowledge to the majority of this forum. If I am correct, and at the moment that is a big if, it will because we were primarily...
by alexfoo39
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697122

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do? Default 80/20. Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks. At -10% I'm at 85/15 At -20% I'm at 90/10 At -30% I'm at 95/5 At -40% I'm at 100/0 I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20. It's written in my IPS. This morning I...
by alexfoo39
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

I certainly think that it's genetic. That's just my opinion. I happen to study a little bit of personality in my academic research. Latest advances include neurological perspective (i.e., neurofinance), where machines like MRI were brought in to test respondent's heartbeat, eye movement and other o...
by alexfoo39
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

Taken from another thread Jason Zweig once wrote: Most people who claim to have “a high tolerance for risk” just have a high tolerance for making money. As soon as the market goes down, their tolerance for risk shrivels and their idea of “the long term” withers to “a week or two.” Link to full artic...
by alexfoo39
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

Malmendier and Nagel (2011) studying great depression babies found that their future investment decisions are rather conservative, even after so many years.

That experience inked into their minds, a constant reminder of not putting oneself at ease with the volatility of the market.
by alexfoo39
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

I'm 47/53 now... Once it hit 45/55 (Google scripted sheet will notify me automatically), i will do manual rebalancing for the first time in my life, back to 50/50. I'm 31 this year. The conservative AA helps me to see if I can pass the test of volatility like this. I expect the economic downturn wil...
by alexfoo39
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sure wish Jack was here to opine
Replies: 54
Views: 4336

Re: Sure wish Jack was here to opine

he would say this

stay the course

and he will say

i meant it every time
by alexfoo39
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

So, this time is different? Do you still stick to your IPS and buy-and-hold regardless of market volatility? 2020 is already an official date for bear encounter. This will go down in history as our future selves looked back and see how we actually lived through this, and to say to ourselves that 'ye...
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5803
Views: 524401

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

so, this strategy is dead "if" we see a positive, sustained stock-bond correlation.

1960–1990 and kept stock-bond correlations positive
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... rrelations
by alexfoo39
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3415

Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

So, the market volatility is here and now. For young bogleheads who joined after 09, you remember answering hypothetical questions on how much loss you can tolerate, and to set such AA for the long run. For the past decade, the bull run has been impressive. You have never personally seen a downward ...
by alexfoo39
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early sources of 'Bogle's Folly'
Replies: 3
Views: 596

Early sources of 'Bogle's Folly'

Anyone has link or pictures pointing to that phrase in the 1970s?
by alexfoo39
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4493

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

how does stop playing the game (i.e., accumulated 25x annual expense, and moving to 0/100) hedges against hyperinflation scenario? You know, I've read a lot of finance books (40+) and countless articles, and I'm pretty sure I've never seen anyone ever recommend going 0/100. The minimum % of stock a...
by alexfoo39
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4493

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

I don't believe TIPS would protect in a hyperinflation scenario. When countries go through hyperinflation, they just start defaulting in creative ways from all sorts of debt obligations. I only think hard assets "off the books" are safe in scenarios like that. I don't plan to own a house in my life...
by alexfoo39
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4493

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a form of U.S. Treasury bond designed to help investors protect against inflation. These bonds are indexed to inflation, have U.S. government backing, and pay investors a fixed interest rate as the bond's par value adjusts with the inflation rate. ...
by alexfoo39
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4493

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

how does stop playing the game (i.e., accumulated 25x annual expense, and moving to 0/100) hedges against hyperinflation scenario? I can't recall anyone advising moving to 0/100 when one hits 25x annual expenses. That seems like a rather bad idea. Where did you see this interpretation? william bein...
by alexfoo39
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4493

stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

how does stop playing the game (i.e., accumulated 25x annual expense, and moving to 0/100) hedges against hyperinflation scenario?
by alexfoo39
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697122

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Oh no!!!!!! Why drop!!!
by alexfoo39
Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: FIRE in 10 years time
Replies: 3
Views: 704

FIRE in 10 years time

I calculated my portfolio (RM250k currently), with conservative annual growth (4.5%, Malaysia), monthly contribution (RM2,200), and 50/50 asset allocation. With 85% portfolio survival rate (n=34 years), I'm expected to be FI in 2030. Age 31 now. Exact calculation 31+ 10 working years = 41 FI By 41, ...
by alexfoo39
Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 128
Views: 21020

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

Another market timing thread. The idea of going all-cash happened to me with sp500 getting all time high recently.
by alexfoo39
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factoring unemployment in asset allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 480

Factoring unemployment in asset allocation

I assume readers here have reasonable knowledge on how to construct a personal asset allocation (e.g 30/70 to 70/30). However, over the course of working years, there bound to be unemployment. Loss of income together with a shrinking equity market can quickly leave one's nest egg evaporating fast. I...
by alexfoo39
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8205

Hedonic Clock

I read of this concept, maybe I'll improvise it. Given frugal saving in early years, one achieves FIRE by the time of (insert your magic age number here with x25~x50 annual expense). Question: Given that our energy is best in early days, e.g., age 20-50, how to properly allocate hedonistic activitie...
by alexfoo39
Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Indexing bubble
Replies: 31
Views: 3551

Passive Indexing bubble

The Big Short's Michael Burry Sees a Bubble in Passive Investing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -investing

How do you see this?

Is he right?
If yes, we can add some small value stock fund in our portfolio :D
by alexfoo39
Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 120
Views: 57396

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

i've been reading this for the 10th time, i guess. I am in a position to teach quite many 20s in a university. If they can start out earlier, I guess that would be considered a great accomplishment from a teacher's point of view.
by alexfoo39
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance upon FIRE and beyond
Replies: 5
Views: 936

Health Insurance upon FIRE and beyond

Dear Bogleheads Hmm, I'd like to ask your opinion (or your current situation) on how to handle the *very likely* increasing cost of health insurance especially for the elderly. I'm now 30, and my calculation (my country Malaysia) shows that by the time i hit 50 and beyond, the health insurance is al...
by alexfoo39
Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car price ratio to NW
Replies: 140
Views: 10306

Re: Car price ratio to NW

my car is current 3.9% my NW. Been trying to bump it to 10% but my car is serving me well.

Just creature comfort, better newer used car with fancy skirt and paint if i want to get one.....

hmm...
by alexfoo39
Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 120
Views: 57396

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

seeking permission to publish this piece of golden lecture in a word-to-word audio format for my students.

thank you :happy
by alexfoo39
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement all bond portfolio ???
Replies: 41
Views: 10657

Re: Re:

It's possible. Those would be long term bonds through a period of very high nominal interest rates due to inflation finishing with a couple or three decades of falling interest rates driving up NAV. Interest rate history for the period 1950-2020 is so extreme and probably unrepeatable that this kin...
by alexfoo39
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement all bond portfolio ???
Replies: 41
Views: 10657

Re:

...but a 20/80 stock/bond portfolio is actually safer than a 100% bond one. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's a stock/bond efficient frontier curve I just created. As Paul mentioned above from Bernstein's book, a portfolio with 12% stocks has historically had the same standard devia...
by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth and risk tolerance
Replies: 30
Views: 5091

Re: Net worth and risk tolerance

My head is spinning :shock: I heard two interpretation on this issue. 1) The higher the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% drop in a $5m portfolio is more tolerable than a 20% drop in $200k portfolio. 2) The lower the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% dr...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27327

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

oh no alex misses the bus!
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth and risk tolerance
Replies: 30
Views: 5091

Net worth and risk tolerance

My head is spinning :shock: I heard two interpretation on this issue. 1) The higher the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% drop in a $5m portfolio is more tolerable than a 20% drop in $200k portfolio. 2) The lower the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% dro...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 221
Views: 51790

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I cannot thank people who have posted their experiences on this forum about how they behaved in 2008 enough. It has been an education for me, hopefully I will be able to stay the course when the next crash (my 1st!) arrives. more anecdotal evidence on how one's risk tolerance is severely tested dur...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course
Replies: 34
Views: 23414

Re: What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course

i reread this when sp500 is about to hit its new high again. I had the tendency to 'time' by selling at the top and buy back later.

Oh i just need these dead people to tell me how to invest =)

i gotta listen.