Search found 191 matches

by alexfoo39
Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 115
Views: 50833

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

i've been reading this for the 10th time, i guess. I am in a position to teach quite many 20s in a university. If they can start out earlier, I guess that would be considered a great accomplishment from a teacher's point of view.
by alexfoo39
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health Insurance upon FIRE and beyond
Replies: 5
Views: 854

Health Insurance upon FIRE and beyond

Dear Bogleheads Hmm, I'd like to ask your opinion (or your current situation) on how to handle the *very likely* increasing cost of health insurance especially for the elderly. I'm now 30, and my calculation (my country Malaysia) shows that by the time i hit 50 and beyond, the health insurance is al...
by alexfoo39
Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car price ratio to NW
Replies: 140
Views: 9540

Re: Car price ratio to NW

my car is current 3.9% my NW. Been trying to bump it to 10% but my car is serving me well.

Just creature comfort, better newer used car with fancy skirt and paint if i want to get one.....

hmm...
by alexfoo39
Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 115
Views: 50833

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

seeking permission to publish this piece of golden lecture in a word-to-word audio format for my students.

thank you :happy
by alexfoo39
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement all bond portfolio ???
Replies: 41
Views: 10380

Re: Re:

It's possible. Those would be long term bonds through a period of very high nominal interest rates due to inflation finishing with a couple or three decades of falling interest rates driving up NAV. Interest rate history for the period 1950-2020 is so extreme and probably unrepeatable that this kin...
by alexfoo39
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement all bond portfolio ???
Replies: 41
Views: 10380

Re:

...but a 20/80 stock/bond portfolio is actually safer than a 100% bond one. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's a stock/bond efficient frontier curve I just created. As Paul mentioned above from Bernstein's book, a portfolio with 12% stocks has historically had the same standard devia...
by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth and risk tolerance
Replies: 30
Views: 4946

Re: Net worth and risk tolerance

My head is spinning :shock: I heard two interpretation on this issue. 1) The higher the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% drop in a $5m portfolio is more tolerable than a 20% drop in $200k portfolio. 2) The lower the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% dr...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 25462

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

oh no alex misses the bus!
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net worth and risk tolerance
Replies: 30
Views: 4946

Net worth and risk tolerance

My head is spinning :shock: I heard two interpretation on this issue. 1) The higher the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% drop in a $5m portfolio is more tolerable than a 20% drop in $200k portfolio. 2) The lower the net worth, the higher the risk tolerance. Example: a 20% dro...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 221
Views: 49098

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I cannot thank people who have posted their experiences on this forum about how they behaved in 2008 enough. It has been an education for me, hopefully I will be able to stay the course when the next crash (my 1st!) arrives. more anecdotal evidence on how one's risk tolerance is severely tested dur...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course
Replies: 34
Views: 20159

Re: What Experts Say About Market-Timing vs. Stay-The-Course

i reread this when sp500 is about to hit its new high again. I had the tendency to 'time' by selling at the top and buy back later.

Oh i just need these dead people to tell me how to invest =)

i gotta listen.
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 355
Views: 44187

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

One bond fund, Schwab Yieldplus , lost 30%+. Prior to the great recession, it had performed fine. Who knew how much toxic mortgage-backed loans the fund contained. Who knew how bad those bonds were. Who knew if other bonds could get hit like this? So our theoretical poorly correlated stock-bond sti...
by alexfoo39
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 355
Views: 44187

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

No one knows what their true risk tolerance is until they are tested by something like 2008. I have been an investor since the early 80s and 2008 was much worse than anything else I have seen. The reason why i refuse to go beyond 50/50 (now still in my late 20s) is that I am inexperienced as an inv...
by alexfoo39
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 355
Views: 44187

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

reading this

anyone came out with the slight idea of 'shorting' the market when 2008 crash begins to happen? You know, stocks are down, glooms everywhere, job lost, and you bet that it will continue to drop....does the idea of shorting come to your mind?
by alexfoo39
Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say About "Simplicity"
Replies: 24
Views: 39233

Re: What Experts Say About "Simplicity"

my apology. I was drawn to this because of the simplicity model of investing. I can foresee that in later years when there are too many things to be handled, investing is the last thing I want to have those nuts and bolts. Hence the three-fund portfolio with rebalancing is beautiful because of its s...
by alexfoo39
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

I have begun to blend some funds that manage volatility (as my assets grew in size) - such as VMVFX from Vanguard, and PIMIX from PIMCO - into my asset mix. One month does not make a pattern, but the month of May 2019 market action showed me that these "widgets" have really performed well relative ...
by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long have you been unemployed?
Replies: 97
Views: 12095

Re: How long have you been unemployed?

For an unemployed single income family perhaps you divert some funds from investments to emergency fund, but there would be no reason to change your retirement asset allocation. Thank you =) Divert some funds, do you mean selling equity/bond and move them to cash upon unemployment? What if the mark...
by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: any other post-docs on here? (or former post-docs?)
Replies: 51
Views: 6234

Re: any other post-docs on here? (or former post-docs?)

8 years had passed. How's everyone doing?

Will you still recommend postdocing?
by alexfoo39
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long have you been unemployed?
Replies: 97
Views: 12095

Re: How long have you been unemployed?

bump, can i know how do you guys 'manage' your asset allocation during periods of employment? That feeling of uncertainty and where you have enough buffer to make it.
by alexfoo39
Fri May 31, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 484
Views: 55777

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Rkoa63 wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 6:32 pm

Thank you :)
by alexfoo39
Thu May 30, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 484
Views: 55777

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

I was a managing partner of a Big 4 audit firm and would highly recommend auditing for a Big 4 firm for anyone that likes accounting. The con is the working hours for sure as there are many late nights but there is ample down time too. The pros are the money is typically quite good, most of your co...
by alexfoo39
Thu May 30, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 484
Views: 55777

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Professor, 2003 - present (Finance major) Would I recommend it now? Depends on who you are. If you love to read hundreds of research papers, spending weeks solving problems, are passionate about teaching, have patience dealing with students every month, then yes. The hurdle to become a tenured prof...
by alexfoo39
Thu May 30, 2019 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 356
Views: 186334

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

The sentiments you expressed reminds me of the argument for adopting a lifecycle investing perspective--an underappreciated strategy that is usually misconstrued as overly aggressive, when in fact it reduces risk. That lifecyle investing is, unfortunately, mocked by Thaler during his Nobel lecture....
by alexfoo39
Mon May 27, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On-line Business Ph'd's are they worth it?
Replies: 11
Views: 2999

Re:

Having a Ph.D. in a business field and 20 years of experience working in academia, I know something about this subject. IMO, the only valid reason to get a Ph.D. in business is to teach in a college or university. The AACSB is the internationally recognized accrediting institution for business scho...
by alexfoo39
Mon May 27, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 356
Views: 186334

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

The sentiments you expressed reminds me of the argument for adopting a lifecycle investing perspective--an underappreciated strategy that is usually misconstrued as overly aggressive, when in fact it reduces risk. That lifecyle investing is, unfortunately, mocked by Thaler during his Nobel lecture....
by alexfoo39
Sun May 26, 2019 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Luck or Skill?
Replies: 30
Views: 4534

Luck across different investment methods

I saw some discussions on luck vs skill, but I can't find one that quite match with what I want to ask Investment style, or vehicle, in terms of indexing, individual stock picking, mutual funds (let's assume that we stick to equity only). What makes one 'luckier' or more 'skillful' across that 3 way...
by alexfoo39
Sat May 25, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

OP, Experience with employment is not the same as without employment. They do not translate to each other. And, regardless of your emotional risk tolerance, if you are unemployed and you need money, you will have to sell your investment to feed your family. Klangfool And, to worsen the situation, u...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 24, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

nisiprius wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 6:49 pm
Anecdotal, to be sure, but I don't "education" is any protection. I think it might even lead to overconfidence.
That's a strong statement =)
by alexfoo39
Fri May 24, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

From what I’ve learned from reading, from this great forum, and from my own investing experiences, our reactions to our experiences vary greatly owing mainly to individual differences . Some bear market examples: ... While experience alone has value in measuring our tolerance for risk, in the end, ...
by alexfoo39
Thu May 23, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

I think "actual experience" has to include the effect of the economic conditions during your formative years; not just your own personal financial experiences. Thank you for your sharing. I'm glad you did well especially on that dotcom. I'd like to ask if you're still subscribing to indexing. I ass...
by alexfoo39
Thu May 23, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

Training and education can trump experience in stressful stiuations. If you educate yourself about market history, you will be prepared to psychologically weather a bear market . Police and fire departments train their first responders for all sorts of crisis situations. These first responders almo...
by alexfoo39
Thu May 23, 2019 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

Experience (Time) with market changes is significant, but there are other factors such as the size of one's portfolio and the spending/saving ratio . Tim i think both points are mentioned for quite a few times, judging from a small sample of replies here. So the larger our portfolio, the less risk ...
by alexfoo39
Wed May 22, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1722

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

So, by aiming for market return, we actually outperform our active peers. So this phenomenon escapes mean regression, ie index will continue to outperform?
by alexfoo39
Wed May 22, 2019 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1722

Regression to the Mean - and our money

I am currently reading Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, and the chapter on regression to the mean sparks me to open this thread and ask for some opinions. I understand that our context should be confined to investing and finance, so I'll try to keep it within the scope. Regression to the mean is a...
by alexfoo39
Sat May 18, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29049

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

gold is a speculative bet. The reason is that gold is not an income-producing asset. It's merely a commodity with its inherent and perceived value. Inherent because gold is a good physical metal, and perceived because it brings social status, a sign of nation's wealth, and tools for bartering. Espec...
by alexfoo39
Sat May 18, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

Awesome thread, thank to the participants for these thought-provoking remarks and feedback from life experiences. I did lose about 2 years of take home pay during the 2008-2009 bear market and that was sobering. I was scared spitless. But I held on and the portfolio recovered and then some. Could y...
by alexfoo39
Sat May 18, 2019 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

alexfoo39: At age 95, I have been through many bear markets. Thank you uncle Taylor =) Your willingness to share the experience will help youngsters like me to be more conservative in my AA. Losing businesses, assets, and properties in a severe downturn, and substantially reduced income sources... ...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

you get it right. So assuming that one is in distribution stage and starts to draw his money off his portfolio. Does he need to keep a, say, 3-years cash expense as buffer? I heard that from sheepdog's thread. I don't see the logic in that myself. Sheepdog recounted in 2008/9 when he regret not tak...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 7006

Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

Need some brainstorming here =) You know the idea of risk taking in investment. Typically one should assess his ability, need, and willingness to take risk. From there a suitable asset allocation will be designed to suit his temperament. The thing is, one often feels some form of regret when the tid...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Aren't we supposed to start be real conservative with the money we plan to use +-5 years? Not sure I have your meaning exactly, but a retirement portfolio might be "used" gradually over as long as 30 years, give or take, from retiring, and some people would be invested for legacies as well. So, no,...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Let's say we have a 2040 target fund. What happens if a 50%+ decline event happened in 2039? You would lose about 25% of your total investment. At the retirement year, the Vanguard Target Date funds are 50/50. They go to (from memory) about 37/63 five years after the target date. For this reason, I...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Op it is Pascal Probabilities and Asset allocation is the bell curve of a future probability or occurance. the Monte Carlo simulation, is Asset allocation a good PBS news hour on this concept: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/world-finance-dark-side-thats-half-story https://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

TR2040 should be close to 50/50 in 2039. If both US and Int'l stocks drop by 50%, TR2040 would drop by 25%. 80% drop....then...let me see.....overal effect is only 40%. But we always assume that bond can't go negative, or do they? Loans got defaulted, borrowers miss interest payment, and another su...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

That is not an argument against target date funds, that is an argument against holding equities. If you hold equities you got risk. The other option is to hold ultra safe, TIPS, which are basically returning nothing in real terms. not to derail too much, but I'm always thinking that holding equity ...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Let's say we have a 2040 target fund. What happens if a 50%+ decline event happened in 2039? It depends on the glide path of that particular fund. That said, nearly any 2040 target fund should be heavily in bonds by 2039, so I'd expect the 50% decline to have lesser impact than a fund that had a he...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Well, the most compelling argument against target funds for me is that fund companies seem to keep tinkering with them. Many in the last 5 years have changed the glidepaths to be more stock-heavy. So if you had an allocation / glidepath you liked, it might have changed on you. You can check it and ...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Let's say we have a 2040 target fund. What happens if a 50%+ decline event happened in 2039? That a TR fund contains stocks is not an argument against target date funds. I'm curious what you really want to know. Some of the features of TR funds that might be undesirable to some investors, and possi...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Let's say we have a 2040 target fund. What happens if a 50%+ decline event happened in 2039? It depends on the glide path of that particular fund. That said, nearly any 2040 target fund should be heavily in bonds by 2039, so I'd expect the 50% decline to have lesser impact than a fund that had a he...
by alexfoo39
Fri May 17, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2649

Re: Argument against Target Fund

https://i.postimg.cc/hPGW8kVh/Capture.jpg I always get fascinated with this math logic, despite feeling that I'm good at math. Supposedly an investor gains 50% first, then loses 50% later, he still come short with 75% money left. Invert that, and it's the same case. I did stockpicking before, so I ...