Search found 45 matches

by hohum
Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'
Replies: 18
Views: 1807

Re: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'

In CS there is a big shortage in the following areas: Amazon Web Services*, infrastructure as code, serverless, docker, ETL. I would recommend avoiding corporate jobs. The danger is getting pigeonholed, and also being lulled into a sense of complacency by fat paychecks and routine work that doesn't...
by hohum
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'
Replies: 18
Views: 1807

Re: Second Job vs Learning a 'Skill'

In CS there is a big shortage in the following areas: Amazon Web Services*, infrastructure as code, serverless, docker, ETL. I would recommend avoiding corporate jobs. The danger is getting pigeonholed, and also being lulled into a sense of complacency by fat paychecks and routine work that doesn't ...
by hohum
Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet buys gold miner
Replies: 54
Views: 6275

Re: Buffet buys gold miner

interesting switch given his past statements which the article above goes through some of them. He has never been against gold miners. Just gold itself as an investment, since gold is not a productive asset. Is silver a productive asset? https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffet...
by hohum
Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet buys gold miner
Replies: 54
Views: 6275

Re: Buffet buys gold miner

Buffett's position has always been "gold for me but not for thee." He denigrates it publically (I think Munger even said you're a "jerk" if you own gold at all). Yet he owned Handy & Harman for many years as one of his largest holdings, and its principal asset was piles of pr...
by hohum
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation
Replies: 45
Views: 4359

Re: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation

Read "When Money Dies". It's the classic account of the German hyperinflation, with info drawn from newspapers and people's diaries and so on. The short version: German stocks: okay in the long run, but a wild ride with a 90% drawdown in real terms along the way. Many would have been force...
by hohum
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best car between $15,000 and $20,000?
Replies: 29
Views: 2714

Re: Best car between $15,000 and $20,000?

2017 Civic EX-L with Turbo and leather seats. Zero to sixty in 6.7 seconds. The Lamborghini of the economy car world!

Only get a Fit if you need a minivan. The Fit is a little weak on acceleration.
by hohum
Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 499
Views: 31911

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

If I were ever in a situation to buy such a car, my preference would be a Lotus. However, I saw a guy on youtube who's always driving and reviewing exotics -- he doesn't have a huge number of subscribers and I forget his name. He said he was a huge Lotus fan before he bought one, but the downsides a...
by hohum
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 499
Views: 31911

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

So I think you have to ask yourself if it's really going to be fun taking those 30mph turns at 30mph in this car you buy. If not, with that much money maybe buy a track-only car and related items that will allow you to drive more aggressively? +1 to track car idea. Also, if you are driving around o...
by hohum
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60
Replies: 152
Views: 13283

Re: Investing in International Stocks

I'm thinking if I combine international with small cap value I can get deeper exposure to the underperformance factor and save on er ...
by hohum
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1255

Re: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS

I wasn’t trying to pose options, just articulating the behavior of some investments. Okay. I thought the subtext was devaluation, and gold has always been the #1 devaluation hedge so it seemed like a weird omission. I guess the subtext was actually "international equities are so bad they can't...
by hohum
Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1255

Re: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS

I wasn’t trying to pose options, just articulating the behavior of some investments. Okay. I thought the subtext was devaluation, and gold has always been the #1 devaluation hedge so it seemed like a weird omission. I guess the subtext was actually "international equities are so bad they can't...
by hohum
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1255

Re: International Equity Diversification vs TIPS

Strange that the questions is posed as a choice between international equity and TIPS, and gold is ignored as an option.

To each his own.
by hohum
Thu May 28, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?
Replies: 26
Views: 1886

Re: Why are 10-20 year treasuries a poor investment now?

"The trend is your friend till the end when it bends." When I was a teenager, I remember thinking "what idiot would buy 30 year treasuries to yield 14% when it's completely obvious they will be yielding 25 or 30% in a couple years even if we don't have a hyperinflation?" I was ju...
by hohum
Mon May 25, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 492
Views: 87340

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Some of my non-traditional favorites, especially the first three. Fiasco, Stanislaw Lem Semiosis, Sue Burke Children of Time, Adrian Tchaikovsky His Master’s Voice, Stanislaw Lem Dragon’s Egg, Robert Forward +1 For Fiasco ... definitely one of the books I still think about from time to time, and I ...
by hohum
Fri May 22, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7682

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

Taleb was right in 1987 also. He discusses this in his books. Something about working for a trading firm, holding some crazy out of the money puts on the S&P 500, and having a huge payoff. His bonus was big enough that he could quit and pursue his dream of being a flaneur ... That being said, it...
by hohum
Wed May 20, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 10040

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

This is where a few classes in Chinese political economy could come in handy. I'd recommend starting with Markets Over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China My point was this - for every foreign investor that was hurt by a financially fraudulent Chinese firm, there are a dozen Chinese investor...
by hohum
Wed May 20, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold vs Mining Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1709

Re: Gold vs Mining Stocks?

Owning gold (physical or ETFs like IAU) has a purpose for stabilizing and diversifying a portfolio. You can see this in the permanent portfolio, the golden butterfly portfolio, and the Ray Dalio portfolios. This is because gold is an alternative reserve currency, blah blah blah. Gold miners are tota...
by hohum
Sun May 10, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BJJ -martial art
Replies: 58
Views: 3225

Re: BJJ -martial art

I've done MMA for 9 years and am in my 50s. It is getting harder to keep up with the guys in their thirties. COVID may have ended my MMA career. But my school mostly does striking (boxing, Muay Thai) and grappling practice is only to learn to defend against semi-trained BJJ guys. I've heard mostly p...
by hohum
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UPDATE: 50% paycut after starting new job
Replies: 53
Views: 7067

Re: 50% paycut after starting new job

If you have the ability to leave, why would you stay? What is it that makes you reluctant to leave immediately?
by hohum
Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

It's totally possible interest rates stay low Japan style for another 20 years, so I don't want 14% if I could get 18%. On the other hand, if yields on the long bond start going up every year .... Decisions, decisions. 18% is the blended CAGR across both high and low interest rate environments. If ...
by hohum
Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

For some reason portfoliovisualizer only goes back to 1978 with long term treasuries, but it goes back to 1972 with intermediate term treasuries. So I checked 1972-1981 for a portfolio that was tsm (120%), itb (180%), cash (-200%). 1972: 18.36 1973: -27.63 1974: -39.13 1975: 47.03 1976: 46.35 1977:...
by hohum
Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

For some reason portfoliovisualizer only goes back to 1978 with long term treasuries, but it goes back to 1972 with intermediate term treasuries. So I checked 1972-1981 for a portfolio that was tsm (120%), itb (180%), cash (-200%). 1972: 18.36 1973: -27.63 1974: -39.13 1975: 47.03 1976: 46.35 1977: ...
by hohum
Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I backtested a portfolio in portfoliovisualizer of VFINX (120%), VUSTX (180%), and cash (-200%). I think this would approximate the cost of financing the leverage. It still only goes back to 1978, and the years from 1982 forward are similar to what we already have in 1987-2018. But here's the worst ...
by hohum
Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 159
Views: 25546

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

I'll help the pro-international people out. 1. diversification means own more stocks and 10000 is more than 4000. Doesn't matter if correlation goes to 1.0, you are still more diversified in a very meaningful way. Doesn't matter if you only own two asset classes (stocks and bonds). Doesn't matter if...
by hohum
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted] [Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund]
Replies: 652
Views: 71728

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

In the Asness, "Why Not 100% Equities," article from 1996, he states in the Modern Finance section that, "...an investor chooses a portfolio of risky assets (in this case stocks and bonds) to maximize the portfolio's Share ratio". He then goes on in the paper to suggest that lev...
by hohum
Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 45480

Re: Why international?

I looked at your link and added gold to the matrix. Gold over the time range you selected (more than 20 years), has outperformed total international, with a much much lower correlation to US stocks (basically zero). Yet people hate on gold ... Gold, bad. Lowers ulcer index, raises SWR. Internationa...
by hohum
Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 45480

Re: Why international?

I would agree that in theory international diversification makes sense. Except, the way we are told to practice it is by buying the global market weight portfolio. Which means most of the money goes into the international megacaps that are 99% correlated with US megacaps. So where is the diversific...
by hohum
Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Again, this is a *risky* strategy so I'd bet a very modest % of your portfolio (I'm betting <<5%) if you plan on joining the rest of us fools on this adventure :D , I can't help but think the idea is really good, but 8 or 9 years into a bull market is probably asking for trouble. That said, the bac...
by hohum
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Again, this is a *risky* strategy so I'd bet a very modest % of your portfolio (I'm betting <<5%) if you plan on joining the rest of us fools on this adventure :D , I can't help but think the idea is really good, but 8 or 9 years into a bull market is probably asking for trouble. That said, the bac...
by hohum
Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 45480

Re: Why international?

I would agree that in theory international diversification makes sense. Except, the way we are told to practice it is by buying the global market weight portfolio. Which means most of the money goes into the international megacaps that are 99% correlated with US megacaps. So where is the diversifica...
by hohum
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If you invested your 100k into pretty much anything over the last 20 years and contributed 10k/month (which you really should, after all the savings rate is the most important), you'd have ended up with 6-8M: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&sta...
by hohum
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

This rather brilliant strategy has a small but non-zero chance of a total wipeout. The correct way to deal with this risk is: 1. acknowledge it 2. size the position appropriately 3. periodically take some of the profits off the table HEDGEFUNDIE is currently doing #1 and #2, and is thinking about #3...
by hohum
Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

If you are in UPRO 100%, you will go down 90% in 2008. How many years of 24% returns does it take to recover from that?

You need an uncorrelated asset, and you need a lot of it.
by hohum
Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 509473

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Pretty sure in the 1970s stocks and bonds went down the drain together for months or years at a time. Also, in your back testing you're starting from 1987 when long term treasuries were probably yielding 8-10%, or from more recent times like 2009-2010 when they were probably yielding at least 4-5%. ...
by hohum
Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 10889

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

From August of 2000 (when IJS, small cap value S&P 600) was created thru December of 2018, IJS has a CAGR of 8.55%. IVV (S&P 500) has had a CAGR of 5.7% in that time. So IJS would be worth 43,767 if 10,000 was invested back then and IVV would be worth 27,108. As a result I own NO S&P 50...
by hohum
Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid re-balancing could it work?
Replies: 7
Views: 553

Re: Hybrid re-balancing could it work?

But guess what? You can temporarily increase your allocation to equities occasionally or decrease your allocation to equities temporarily. In those cases, your performance will temporarily be as if you were dollar-cost averaging at that ratio. Are you talking about something like this (market valua...
by hohum
Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes...another question/comment about gold
Replies: 30
Views: 1580

Re: Yes...another question/comment about gold

Compare the returns of gold, international stocks, and intermediate treasuries over the last 25 years. Then ask yourself why gold is bad because "you can't eat it" or "you can't shoot zombies with it", whereas buying intermediate treasuries with a 2% nominal yield and a zero real...
by hohum
Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think about swing trading?
Replies: 136
Views: 7629

Re: What do you think about swing trading?

You should really read "Market Wizards" and other classics in the field to understand why it's not "financial engineering". Basically if you start with 100 wannabe traders, 90 will "blow up" (get fired or lose their life savings) within 5 years. Another 9% will make pos...
by hohum
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 18638

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

By way of comparison, here is the International "Premium" for 32 years.

US: +9.90, stdev 15.03
Intl: +6.62, stdev 17.78
by hohum
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 18638

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

What's this, then?

Portfolio visualizer is wrong?
by hohum
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: first AA with index funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1009

Re: first AA with index funds

Finished! It took a long time to let go of my delusions, and and even longer time to wade through my passive options. Portfoliocharts.com was a big help at sorting out the possibilities. I decided to keep the equal weighting of assets to avoid spending the rest of my life trying to over-optimize the...
by hohum
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: first AA with index funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1009

Re: first AA with index funds

Thank you for the input, everyone. This is all rollover IRA money. I got rid of the gold and the extended duration treasuries. Intermediate term treasuries all the way. I wish things were that easy on the equity side. Letting go and being completely passive is harder for me than I thought it would b...
by hohum
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Banff/Lake Louise vacation-suggestions?
Replies: 16
Views: 1161

Re: Banff/Lake Louise vacation-suggestions?

From Lake Louise we did the hike to the tea house at the Plain of Six Glaciers. It was awesome. About an hour, and doable by anyone who's reasonably fit. From the tea house you can eat your lunch and watch (and listen to) avalanches going off. But it was a day trip .. hike in the morning, lunch, ren...
by hohum
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net net stocks
Replies: 13
Views: 1817

Re: Net net stocks

I invested in net-nets back in 2001-2002 when they were briefly available in the US market. High bid-ask spreads. Very little trading volume. Tons of tracking error. So basically if a backtester says the gain for a basket of stocks for the year was 30%, maybe the gain was actually 12% when you accou...
by hohum
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: first AA with index funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1009

first AA with index funds

I spent many years as an individual stock picker with a value emphasis. Mostly I outperformed the S&P 500 from 1999 until 2008, and mostly I underperformed since then. Overall, it's a wash -- but it consumed countless hours of time that I'll never get back. Getting older here at 53, I'd really l...