Search found 631 matches

by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

Whether someone has adequate amounts saved or not by retirement is a separate issue. More importantly an individual issue, not a strategy. LMP with TIPS is a strategy you apply to guarantee a steady stream of income. I said you were wrong in calling DCA as an effective strategy against sequence of ...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

The AA you can live with may be 70/30...but why would you lump sum into 70/30 instead of DCAing in if the market was declining? Because you don't know ahead of time whether the market will decline or not. It usually doesn't decline (which is why investing ASAP is the rational and financially optima...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

You mean other than needing an additional 20% in savings vs 60/40? That’s a pretty significant handwave...especially since TIPS currently have a slightly negative yield. You could just do cash if you can make the assumption you can arbitrarily “accumulate enough” to cover inflation. Nope, sorry but...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

Wrong. A retiree who has met the savings goals needed for meeting their SWR can construct a portfolio of TIPS matching their liability. This will protect their purchasing power and principal, it is neither based on luck or exposed to sequence of returns risk. They need not be concerned about market...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

Wow thanks, this is a keeper! Turns out portfolio construction is third behind luck and spend rate in terms of impact to your portfolio during retirement. If you are lucky you don’t see a downturn till late in retirement. Portfolios with more aggressive AAs lose more in a bear but also recover quic...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling a house - should it be staged or left empty?
Replies: 37
Views: 2815

Re: Selling a house - should it be staged or left empty?

I found a selling agent that included staging and they did a great job. I don’t really get what selling agents are really doing for you these days if they don’t help reno, stage, etc vs using a lower cost service like Redfin that still gets you into MLS.
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

In my opinion, "dollar-cost averaging" is a travesty because it compels people to lie to themselves about their risk tolerance , and it confuses the most important thing an investor should care about: portfolio construction. The only thing you control is asset allocation. You do not control market ...
by nigel_ht
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

In my opinion, "dollar-cost averaging" is a travesty because it compels people to lie to themselves about their risk tolerance , and it confuses the most important thing an investor should care about: portfolio construction. The only thing you control is asset allocation. You do not control market ...
by nigel_ht
Sun May 31, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?
Replies: 69
Views: 4758

Re: 70/30 - Expected Real Return?

The s&p500 has averaged 10-11% since 1926. I'm investing for the long haul and think we will see 7% or greater over 30 years. If the s&p500 and total market index are only giving you 2%.....Ally had money market accounts with like a 2.2% return a few years ago. A 2-4% return is ok for something lik...
by nigel_ht
Sun May 31, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

If you don’t have 25x and you can’t get there on a 50/50 AA then you gotta roll the dice somewhere...unless you can pare down retirement expenses and LBYM on what $1.5m can provide (which isn’t shabby, let’s be honest). That you CAN control...unlike whether you’re going to get lucky or not... Your ...
by nigel_ht
Sat May 30, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 236
Views: 11628

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

It seems like at the elementary school level the difference b/w a 20k school and 30-40k is minor so that I would much rather pocket the difference. ' The extra $10-20K a year for 12 years adds up. Most likely what will happen is that the extra money would be invested and growing until your kid inhe...
by nigel_ht
Sat May 30, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 236
Views: 11628

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

Yah. My DD has the dubious social distinction of being the only one owing AirPods and a phone with a home button...everyone else has a X or something newer. She still is sporting a 7. She fortunately doesn’t mind it but does comment on how some of her friends have big houses. Time to gift her the b...
by nigel_ht
Sat May 30, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 236
Views: 11628

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

It seems like at the elementary school level the difference b/w a 20k school and 30-40k is minor so that I would much rather pocket the difference. ' The extra $10-20K a year for 12 years adds up. Most likely what will happen is that the extra money would be invested and growing until your kid inhe...
by nigel_ht
Sat May 30, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering
Replies: 56
Views: 4344

Re: Out of market now and need advice on re-entering

Well, it kinda depends on when you want to retire and how secure your job is. Folks are advocating 50/50 and 60/40. That’s wise I think...folks our age have the problem of potentially losing our job and never recovering to the same salary. The other big question is how much do you need to retire and...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1465

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

You can also do a GTC purchase for a big drop. That way you don't miss a buying opportunity between DCA purchases without a lot of vigilance. I would not advocate that because that is a buy limit order and stale limit orders are not good for you. One should use their brain. Once again, get the text...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1465

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

..., you need to know that you really should watch the markets daily to see how they are moving, so you can do the transaction toward the end of the trading day, before 4pm the day of the bad stuff happens. [...] This strategy will potentially have you watching markets constantly and daily and ... ...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1465

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

The reason you don’t do this IS because of tax and transaction costs. Also because lump sum does win 2/3rds of the time. The reason to DCA is because of the current volatility increases the odds of being in that 1/3 of the time scenario where lump sum wins. DCA outperforms lump sum when the market ...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18835
Views: 2632360

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Sometimes it works, but there's no basis for it. It's risk management. When it finally works, that strategy will be in cash, while you sweat out an 80%+ drawdown (this happened recently, less than 90 years ago). Well, the market lost 56% in 2007-2009. That wasn't a happy fun time for many folks eit...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3670

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

Thanks, Mark. I've been surprised everyone has just been assuming this is acceptable. OP, the tax code prevents the assignment of income to whomever you please. Gill I am no expert, but it would seem like a real estate partnership where both are active, it would be possible to execute a legal schem...
by nigel_ht
Fri May 29, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker
Replies: 64
Views: 3670

Re: Two accountants disagree - Bogleheads for the tiebreaker

They have the option to decide who earns the income on each sale throughout the year. Is anyone bothered by this assumption? Gill Yes, it bothers me. I would like to know what provision in the law allows two taxpayers the option to retroactively decide how to divide-up earned income. Thanks, Mark. ...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1465

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

It's not just that lump sum beats DCA statistically. It's also that DCA'ing does not hold together logically. If you had $100K already invested in the market, would you sell everything and then DCA the money back in once a quarter over the next one year? If not, why would you do it when your money ...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market
Replies: 34
Views: 1465

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar Cost Averaging during volatile market

DCA wins a third of the time, lump sum the rest. The median drag on performance for DCA and lump sum is relatively minor...read the vanguard white paper for details. I would (and am) doing a 12 month DCA once per month. I modified it to just doing the stock half of my current 50/50 allocation and ho...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17896

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Care to point out how many lows have been retraced after coming back this much? Let me save you some time: exactly zero* . *Note: Some claim 2007 retraced the 2000 lows, but this is really reaching as it was clearly a fresh bull (7 year gap). If you are going to sit on the sidelines for almost a de...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17896

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

+1 , history and probability matters. History indicates that many bears have bull traps and few last only 19 trading days peak to trough...the shortest since 1929 that was 15 days. Probability says...it's not 1929 but also that a very short bear is an anomaly. Care to point out how many lows have b...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17896

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

This rally does not necessarily mean anything... we went from 3386 to 2237 in few weeks.. that could happen again It's not about if it does or does not happen, it is about being set up to handle the risk whether it happens of not. And since I can only prepare for a finite set of outcomes I choose t...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17896

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

This rally does not necessarily mean anything... we went from 3386 to 2237 in few weeks.. that could happen again It's not about if it does or does not happen, it is about being set up to handle the risk whether it happens of not. And since I can only prepare for a finite set of outcomes I choose t...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 186
Views: 17896

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Just goes to show you that even when you get the core thesis right, you can still lose to people who get the core thesis wrong. Your problem isn't that you got your core thesis wrong, its that the 100,000 deaths statistic shouldn't be part of a core thesis at all. Obviously every death is terrible,...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5249

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

Eh, too early to tell where the market is going. If it's a little money it doesn't matter...lump sum in or stay out. If it's a lot of money then DCA back in. Little and a lot are subjective but if less than $100K I'd just lump sum. I didn't put money into the market lump sum in Jan and instead DCAin...
by nigel_ht
Thu May 28, 2020 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I think I posted this earlier but... I could see how my initial post reads like I sold everything around 3/21 (and it is what I suggested others do). However, just to clarify, I was net selling equities from January (rebalancing), February, March and April (Pandemic Concerns). So at S&P 3000 I am b...
by nigel_ht
Wed May 27, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I think I posted this earlier but... I could see how my initial post reads like I sold everything around 3/21 (and it is what I suggested others do). However, just to clarify, I was net selling equities from January (rebalancing), February, March and April (Pandemic Concerns). So at S&P 3000 I am b...
by nigel_ht
Wed May 27, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

After reading some of these comments, I asked myself a question. If someone handed me a million dollars today (after taxes), what would I do? The answer (today) would be I would hold onto it until either price multiples seemed more aligned (to me) than the risk in equities currently. Bottom line is...
by nigel_ht
Wed May 27, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

And what's worse is you were telling others to sell. Do you know how much money you potentially costs others who read your message and listened to you? Whoa now. Everyone is responsible for their own decisions. If someone decided to change their investment strategy on the basis of what an anonymous...
by nigel_ht
Wed May 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9602

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

Everyone says stock markets are forward looking, I understand. But with 40 million unemployment claims over 2 months, why would the markets shrug that off. No economy in history has replaced 40m jobs even in a year’s time. What am I missing?! You are looking for logic. It's human nature. You want t...
by nigel_ht
Wed May 27, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9602

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

Stranger to me than the market not being relatively lower, is how many people seem upset that it's not. To me, it’s stranger that more people are not outraged. The market going up is not necessarily a good indicator that my personal financial situation is going up. And if this is the truth for a go...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9602

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

This is temporary. Businesses are closed (were closed) because they had to, not because there was a problem with the economy. They’ll open, people will be rehired, life will move on, markets will go up. lots of jobs cut are not coming back in the near future, if ever. Hertz, neiman marcus, and othe...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

OP, what you missed is that stock valuations are comprised of expected earnings AND multiples. Even if expected earnings have been hacked down as compared to Dec 2018, isn’t it conceivable that investors are willing to pay a higher multiple for those lower earnings given that interest rates are now...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?
Replies: 26
Views: 1416

Re: Fun Money?

For the fun of it, I have been thinking about using a small portion of my equity allocation to purchase stock of the top company (by market weight) in each of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, at equal weight. I'm just wondering if anyone has done this, or any thoughts on this? Thanks. bck63: " Fun money " i...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I totally get it how some would look at this now, and say OMG worst timing possible! I also think the way to look at this is with a degree of patience. Most every bear market plays out in a time frame measured in years and with multiple rallies in the middle (except maybe 1987). So the way I look a...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 103
Views: 5148

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

did buffet say that market timing transfers wealth from impatient to those that are patient You mean the guy with $137B in liquidity waiting patiently for the moment to go all in? The guy who stated: “Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. Whe...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9602

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

This is temporary. Businesses are closed (were closed) because they had to, not because there was a problem with the economy. They’ll open, people will be rehired, life will move on, markets will go up. Maybe, but I doubt it is that simple, and it may take a while. I'd say it is more along the line...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics on timers in market crashes?
Replies: 103
Views: 5148

Re: Statistics on timers in market crashes?

I have been investing since 1979 I have never jumped in and out of the equity markets. When you lightning strikes ,you need to be there I will say though, In every major declining period of the stock market over the years. I have found myself purchasing more shares in equities. :mrgreen: Thanks for...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?
Replies: 26
Views: 1416

Re: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?

For the fun of it, I have been thinking about using a small portion of my equity allocation to purchase stock of the top company (by market weight) in each of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, at equal weight. I'm just wondering if anyone has done this, or any thoughts on this? Thanks. If the goal is to reli...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I totally get it how some would look at this now, and say OMG worst timing possible! I also think the way to look at this is with a degree of patience. Most every bear market plays out in a time frame measured in years and with multiple rallies in the middle (except maybe 1987). So the way I look a...
by nigel_ht
Tue May 26, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 237
Views: 15489

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Still not trying to call the bottom, just have a firm belief that the Market will have another leg down (minimum) before we are past this. Discussion back and forth thru short term gyrations is probably not as useful. My thesis and my point is still why someone would pay more than they would in Dec...
by nigel_ht
Mon May 25, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to invest $1.2M for the next 10-15 years [Switzerland]
Replies: 26
Views: 2377

Re: How to invest $1.2M for the next 10-15 years

I will give you a contrarian view from most folks here given your goals. If you are only investing half of your money you have a fairly conservative Asset Allocation. In this case essentially 50% equities and 50% cash, real estate, etc. So essentially you want to turn $600K into $1.8M in 10 years. R...
by nigel_ht
Sun May 24, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?
Replies: 26
Views: 1416

Re: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?

Absolutey - but not in equal weight - Favoring leading sectors has Rewards... https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,XLY,XLC,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLF,XLRE|D|0 Let Adam Smith's Invisible Hand be the sectors 50day ave in relation to current close... Tech, Discretionary & Com...
by nigel_ht
Sun May 24, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?
Replies: 26
Views: 1416

Re: Owning Top Stocks in Each Sector?

Thought about either buying ALPS EQL or just the underlying ETFs https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/large-blend/alps-equal-sector-weight-etf/eql If you just want equal weighting across all sectors that does that for you but unless you do it above fun money (>5%) levels I dunno it does a whole lot i...
by nigel_ht
Sat May 23, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 367
Views: 28644

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Sorry about being laid off. FIREing with $1.4M at 50 feels a little lean to me. 3.5% withdrawal rate is $49K but you do get $15K from your wife's salary. So you're probably fine. If the market tanks again you'll be eating into your EF which will have to get replenished. I dunno, IT is still in dema...