Search found 274 matches

by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

some funds ready to take advantage of a market drop if valuations return to a semblance of normalcy over the next several years. Probably good to have that timeframe. We're in uncharted territory here, though, so "several years" may be optimistic. It would be nice if we could look back on what happ...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 9160

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

I'd be happy to take the bet that it won't. Of course, if I lost the bet, then probably you wouldn't have the means to collect anyway since the internet won't exist any more :D This seems to be a common refrain here: if it melts down, there will be more things to worry about than your money. There'...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

market timer wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am
This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.
Good call.
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 9160

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

I don't agree that the inversion is an actionable event The stock and bond markets are disagreeing heartily with you. Investors today realize, I hope, what a gift they were handed in 2008/09 by Bernanke et al. QE, taxpayer-funded corporate bailouts, and below 0 interest rates were NOT "business as ...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 9160

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

In general, do little with allocation. Stock prices already price recession risk better than you do. Lower rates probably justifies a lower allocation to bonds. People who are buying bonds yielding less than 0 don't agree with you. Why do you think they're buying them? Because they like losing money?
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 9160

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

I've been trying to warn people for weeks/months that it's getting risky out there. Funny how at the top people just ride along like nothing is going to change. After a decade of QE and with interest rates low here here and 0 or below 0 in most of the industrialized world, the Fed is already out of ...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Greedy and Fearful...
Replies: 9
Views: 1771

Re: Greedy and Fearful...

Forced to retire a couple of years ago,now age 61 and both of us are in good health. Getting by doing some part-time jobs, spouse recently found a better paying job and is contributing to a 401k. We don't have pensions. We plan on taking Social Security as late as possible, at age 70 for at least o...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Greedy and Fearful...
Replies: 9
Views: 1771

Re: Greedy and Fearful...

Feeling greedy and fearful at the same time. What the fearful part is telling you is that your asset allocation is too risky for your age and circumstances. 50/50 with no pension and hoping to take SS late is WAY TOO RISKY. Listen to your fear because during the next downturn, you will be kicking y...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard - dissappointed
Replies: 44
Views: 6150

Re: Vanguard - dissappointed

I would say their website is sometimes this terrible. I can confirm that. Two days ago I logged in to find my account balance was $0. Thinking it might be a browser issue, I logged on with another browser. Same issue. Called and the rep also saw $0. Then a few minutes later he saw the actual balanc...
by carol-brennan
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Understand Vanguard Holding Period for transferred in Money
Replies: 21
Views: 1754

Re: Help Me Understand Vanguard Holding Period for transferred in Money

Hi, I recently transferred $11,000 from my Ally Online Savings Account to my Vanguard Joint Taxable Brokerage account with the intent of funding our Roths. The money went to the money market settlement fund. However, it's saying I have to wait 7 business days to use for purchasing/adding to existin...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

ohai wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:56 pm
In December, Fed implied 2-3 rate hikes in 2019. Market panicked and sold off.

Today, Fed implies zero rate hikes in 2019, and market believes a 40% chance of rate cut.

I'd say this is an abrupt change in direction.
Yup. I thought that was pretty obviously abrupt.
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

The federal funds rate was effectively 0% from Dec 2008 through Dec 2015. Things turned out pretty well for investors who stuck to their asset allocations over that time period and since. Yeah, except the story is far from over. We never got back to "normal," and now we're headed down again. Who kn...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

The FED is now backed into a corner and has no where to go, as both options available will wreck the economy. The best they can hope for is maintaining status quo, which so far, so good. As my paycheck and half our investments are in dollars, I am hoping they can pull it off!! Yeah. That's the way ...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

The biggest concern many have with this move is the damage this policy will do to the dollar. For the past decade the Fed promised that 0% rates would be temporary, so faith in the dollar was strong, but if this becomes the permanent policy the treasury may lose demand. Artificially low interest ra...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

Re: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

columbia wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:29 am
Which would fare better under deflation (which is really the subject at hand): cash or TIPS?
And what affect would deflation have on stocks?
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 75
Views: 11456

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

visualguy wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:19 am
It's hard to imagine interest rates going anywhere but up
It now appears time to re-imagine this.
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the effect of negative interest rates?
Replies: 28
Views: 2253

What will be the effect of negative interest rates?

With the Fed's abrupt change of course, it now appears likely, to me at least, that the U.S. could eventually (as soon as the next recession) see the same kind of 0% or negative interest rate environment that many others in the industrialized world face now or have faced (in the case of Japan) for d...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 11328

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:47 am
Do you see anyone here advocating for 100% stocks all the time, because "stocks are super safe with no risk"?
Yes, pretty much every day.
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard delays ACH funds availability
Replies: 62
Views: 12838

Re: Vanguard delays ACH funds availability

This month, I did another transfer from Vanguard to the bank and the Vanguard website clearly states, "you should expect to see these funds in 2 business days at your bank". That is horrible and unacceptable, that Vanguard gets two days of free interest income on my money. My funds are gone from Va...
by carol-brennan
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard delays ACH funds availability
Replies: 62
Views: 12838

Re: Vanguard delays ACH funds availability

I'm moving my money, all of my money, out of Vanguard for this reason--and others. The "others" have to do with Vanguard's Web site, which at times is just wacky, showing different balances at different times.
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?
Replies: 69
Views: 3611

Re: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?

My position on this is give me a fully autonomous vehicle, or stay out of my way when I drive. These middle-of-the road safety features are bound to annoy me by interfering with my driving more than help me stay in my lane (never had a problem with that in almost 20 years of driving). For now all t...
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?
Replies: 69
Views: 3611

Re: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?

researcher wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:04 pm
You can buy a brand new Corolla with 0 miles and drive it for say 15 years.
Or a 2 year old Camry with ~30K miles and drive it for ~13 years.
My Camry is 15 years old and shows no signs of dying. I do need a new paint job, though.
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?
Replies: 69
Views: 3611

Re: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?

hicabob wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:31 am
I'd go for the 2019 which comes with Toyota Safety sense which does lane holding, auto high beams, pre-collision detection etc. Modern driver assistance stuff really is nice.
That does sound good.
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?
Replies: 69
Views: 3611

Re: A used Camry or brand new Corolla?

I am soon will be in the car-buying market. I posted before asking about how much I could afford..etc and got helpful responses (as usual). When the time comes, I will be probably hesitant between buying a brand new Corolla Vs. buying a used (2 years old or so) Camry that was leased or rented. I pl...
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 88
Views: 10065

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

Here's the latest bit of TA mumbo jumbo that just crossed my desk: Dow's bullish 'golden cross' set to appear, exactly 3 months after a bearish 'death cross' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dows-bullish-golden-cross-set-to-appear-exactly-3-months-after-a-bearish-death-cross-2019-03-19 The story sa...
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 11328

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

EnjoyTheJourney wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:10 am
It helps to realize that equities are a winning game over the longer run.
The questions is "whose long run?" If we go into a bear that lasts 10 years, do you have enough time on the other end of that to enjoy the ride up?
by carol-brennan
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 88
Views: 10065

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

Technical analysis is complete and utter BS from top to bottom. It's the financial industry equivalent of snake oil salespeople. It's really easy to see the con at work. On any given week on CNBC or other financial quack shows, take note of the predictions uttered by the herd of technical bloviators...
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 11328

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

Fair enough, I was hasty. There are definitely other angles The OP's regret is useful, for all of us, I think. My great concern is that practically no one investing today has experienced an extended bear market, one that lasted, say, 10 years or more. Depending upon how one was invested (and when),...
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 11328

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

For the long term, stocks are essential. If you don't use them at all, you're never going to outpace inflation, and you'll never be able to retire. Wrong. In my extended family, I can count the people who have ever owned stocks on three fingers. Yet everyone who was retirement age and wanted to ret...
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paris - Is It Safe?
Replies: 143
Views: 10112

Re: Paris - Is It Safe?

Some of my friends in Europe refuse to visit the US because of all the news about shootings that they have heard. What we hear here may not be reality over there. Yes! I remember when I lived in Berlin, my father called me one time. He was very worried. "On CNN, I see that there are violent protest...
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 14110

Re: The case for 100% equities

KlangFool wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:04 pm
How long can you survive in a recession/unemployment/downturn? I plan for 5 years. I plan to outlast most folks.

KlangFool
I plan 10 years. And I can cut back spending if necessary to make it 15.
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we purchase $700k home?
Replies: 101
Views: 7436

Re: Should we purchase $700k home?

IndexFun wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:45 am
Should we purchase $700k home?
No! That's an insane amount of money to spend on a home.

Most people live in 2 or 3 rooms and don't need any more space. Many can live fine in just one room, plus a kitchen and bathroom.

Less is more. Houses are boring--and expensive.
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?
Replies: 47
Views: 4511

Re: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?

printer86 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:22 pm
I strongly agree with the previous posters on this thread who recommended the best use of this windfall is to payoff/down debt. Does the OP have any debt they want to eliminate?
I second this agreement.
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?
Replies: 47
Views: 4511

Re: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?

Cycle wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:40 pm
In the long run today's price will be cheap.
In the long run, we'll all be dead.

What matters is the lifespan one has to work with relative to one's risk tolerance.
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?
Replies: 47
Views: 4511

Re: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?

renegade06 wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:43 pm
Thanks for your replies.

I am about 80% stocks and 20% cash and G fund (in TSP).
Depends on your retirement time. That's too risky for near retirement.

Look at it this way: imagine the market goes down 50-80% and stays that way for 10-15 years. How would you feel? Could you still make it?
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?
Replies: 47
Views: 4511

Re: Is now a good time to put new money in the market?

renegade06 wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:19 pm
Is now a good time to put new money in the market?
No!
by carol-brennan
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paris - Is It Safe?
Replies: 143
Views: 10112

Re: Paris - Is It Safe?

MindBogler wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:14 pm
The US is one of the safest countries on the planet.
Very funny. That must be why "active shooter response training" has become standard in workplaces and schools.
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I'm going to disagree. $1.5 million is more than twice the amount I plan on retiring with. It's an obscene amount of money. Even if it was stashed under my mattress earning 0%, I wouldn't blow through that much money in 50 years. Some people need more money to spend on junk or to support the junk t...
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paris - Is It Safe?
Replies: 143
Views: 10112

Re: Paris - Is It Safe?

Skip Paris. Lots and lots to do and see all over France in terms of art and history. Totally agree with this. Paris is the most overrated destination in Europe. I'd rather go anywhere in Europe than Paris. Pick some midsize or smaller towns. They're more fun and more "real." Paris is just another b...
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 337
Views: 323298

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Thank you nispirius for the timely post. I couldn't have come across this at a better time in my life. Although this is not my first exposure to major market fluctuations, I was seriously considering to not invest for a while. I first started investing for the first time in Sep-2008, two weeks befo...
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 337
Views: 323298

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:44 pm
I don't think I see it either in 2009-present, or in 2001-2006.
If 2009-present is not "parabolic," I don't think the word has any practical value so far as chart talk goes.
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 14110

Re: The case for 100% equities

Talk is cheap when the market is going up.
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

dknightd wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:28 am
I think it is an actionable thread.
What the heck is actionable? Anything is actionable if it makes you think about possibilities.
by carol-brennan
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paris - Is It Safe?
Replies: 143
Views: 10112

Re: Paris - Is It Safe?

Small Law Survivor wrote:
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:28 am
Is it safe?
Safer than almost any city in the United States. The United States, in fact, is the most dangerous country I've been in, and I've been in quite a few.

P.S. Gun ownership and homicide rates:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/how ... -countries
by carol-brennan
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

sergeant wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:06 pm
New money is going into equities as I plan on getting back to 50/50.
Reverse glidepath with a pot of safe money to the side is smart, I think.
by carol-brennan
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 100164

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

market timer wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am
This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs.
What freaks me out is that the market is heading to new highs when the world economy is slowing down. Financial engineering (stock buybacks), and when that's done, look out below.
by carol-brennan
Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 14110

Re: The case for 100% equities

I just turned 45 and I am **HOPING** to retire at age 55. 100% equities is for when you don't have a retirement date in mind, or when retirement is so far off that you don't really think about it. That's not you. History has shown us that it IS possible for equities to decline by 50-90% and stay do...
by carol-brennan
Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k
Replies: 101
Views: 30054

Re: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k

Got this reply after 3 days from CapOne: We've confirmed that our Money Market Accounts cannot currently be accessed through third party financial tools. Because of this, your Money Market Account details can only be seen through our website. Since this account is hot off the press, we're still wor...