Search found 231 matches

by siriusblack
Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can anyone recommend a mattress pad/cover that is actually cooling?
Replies: 24
Views: 3342

Re: Can anyone recommend a mattress pad/cover that is actually cooling?

Swap out the memory foam topper for latex - it sleeps cooler and is more durable (but costs more). We have one from Sleep On Latex and love it.
by siriusblack
Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I afford to splurge on a Tesla?
Replies: 92
Views: 9884

Re: Can I afford to splurge on a Tesla?

Basically you are spending your $30k bonus to upgrade your car to a Tesla. If I were in your shoes and I really wanted a Tesla, I would just do it! And then pretend like the bonus never happened.
by siriusblack
Wed Sep 27, 2023 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I need some peer career counseling
Replies: 34
Views: 3442

Re: I need some peer career counseling

JfonLA wrote: Wed Sep 27, 2023 3:54 pm new partner doesn't like me; it's very mutual
Unless you can change this relationship, it sounds like it's only a matter of time until you find a way to leave your current employer. I don't think contracting (for them at least) will improve things.

I think you should pretend to be very happy. Do great work, be super cooperative, and try to improve relationships to the best of your ability.

Meanwhile, start searching (and don't sell yourself short)-- you have something really valuable to offer, to the right employer. Maybe you need some career coaching (whether individual or in a group) to brainstorm and get some more clarity on your options.
by siriusblack
Mon Sep 25, 2023 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura MDX Windshield Replacement - Insurance Being Difficult
Replies: 19
Views: 2151

Re: Acura MDX Windshield Replacement - Insurance Being Difficult

Get this one done cheaply and then switch to a better insurance company.

I have State Farm and they replaced my Acura MDX window about a year ago (at $1700-ish if I remember correctly) with the official part, minus my $250 deductible. No questions asked beyond the initial claim report. The local company that did the replacement dealt directly with insurance on the claim.

I was truly shocked at the high cost of a window, BTW. But I guess that's just how it goes these days.
by siriusblack
Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank account for a 15 year old
Replies: 20
Views: 2349

Re: Bank account for a 15 year old

Check out BOA "SafeBalance" account -- it's designed for minors.
by siriusblack
Sat Aug 26, 2023 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What type of account should I open for an 8 year old?
Replies: 16
Views: 1895

Re: What type of account should I open for an 8 year old?

I've tried 3 things for my kids, and I can share pros/cons of each: (1) BusyKid -- it's an app that allows kids to receive their allowance money (which can either be an automatic allowance, manual transfers, or a chore-based allowance system). Pros: Connects to a debit card so they can spend the money. Allows kids to allocate a % of their money to "Spend", "Save", and "Give" categories. So it teaches them those concepts early on. It also makes it relatively easy to invest the money. (At the time I used BusyKid, the partner brokerage was Stockpile. It essentially creates an UTMA account for the kids at Stockpile and then transfers the money there for fractional share investing.) Cons: BusyKid charges annual fees...
by siriusblack
Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I buying high?
Replies: 67
Views: 6370

Re: Am I buying high?

The worst thing that could happen to you as an investor is to successfully time the market. In the future, you will find it psychologically irresistible to try to do it again. (And of course you will fail in the future, so you'll miss out on gains and you'll amplify losses. Over and over again...) OP- be thankful you didn't time the market successfully. In the long run, your future self will be glad you didn't train yourself that way. :sharebeer
by siriusblack
Fri Aug 04, 2023 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your total accumulation number, how did you come to it. No Judgements!
Replies: 404
Views: 77279

Re: What is your total accumulation number, how did you come to it. No Judgements!

Netherworld wrote: Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:18 am It was $2 million plus a paid-off house (about $3 million total) with annual expenses of about $80k. That was 10 years, at 50 years old, and all has worked out just fine.
This is a lot closer to my plan. I'm 44 today with 1.2M portfolio plus paid-off house and we could easily live off $70-80k. At 2M portfolio I would consider us "FI". Not sure when we will actually stop working... I'd rather just keep working and enjoy the extra income, take more trips, and have more financial flexibility.
by siriusblack
Fri Jul 14, 2023 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random selection of stocks inside index
Replies: 6
Views: 496

Re: Random selection of stocks inside index

Some mutual fund active managers have been called "closet indexers" for this same reason.
by siriusblack
Mon Jun 26, 2023 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Summer Heat Escape US Destinations?
Replies: 48
Views: 4331

Re: Summer Heat Escape US Destinations?

+1 for the Adirondacks. Plenty of beautiful & pristine lakes to choose from. We go there sometimes in July, and the temperature ranges from high 50's to low 80's.
by siriusblack
Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell or should I continue to hold
Replies: 64
Views: 3602

Re: Should I sell or should I continue to hold

You've just done the equivalent of walking into an AA meeting and asking which brand of vodka everyone prefers. :sharebeer Most of the people here would not recommend buying these types of individual stocks in the first place, much less give you advice on how to decide the right timing to sell (based on how the economy "feels"). You've constructed a high risk, high reward portfolio with high concentration. That's the exact opposite of the boglehead philosophy, which is to determine an appropriate asset allocation with the right mix of risk & reward for your particular goals... and then to diversify broadly, accept average market returns for each asset class in your portfolio, and minimize costs. In the long term, your portfoli...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgages for second home when first home is paid?
Replies: 8
Views: 2828

Re: Mortgages for second home when first home is paid?

Have you considered doing a cash-out mortgage on primary home, instead of taking a mortgage on secondary? (I don't know the details or potential pitfalls of doing that-- but in the back of my mind that's what I'm planning/hoping to do one day when I eventually convince DW it's time to buy a vacation property.)
by siriusblack
Tue May 30, 2023 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it really help to turn off automatic div reinvestment
Replies: 30
Views: 5273

Re: Does it really help to turn off automatic div reinvestment

I'll lose returns by having those dividends sitting in cash too long. I wouldn't put too much weight in this claim. Why not? 1) The small amount of the dividends, relative to account balance. 2) You are checking your accounts more than once every 90 days. I agree. Here's some example math: Let's say you've got 1M invested, with average dividend of 2% ($20k annually), and you check quarterly to decide where to invest the dividends. That equates to a quarterly payout of $5,000. That means your cash balance will cycle between $0 and $5,000, so the "average" cash balance will be (for the sake of argument) $2,500. You will "lose" interest on that $2,500 ... so, the impact would be like $100 or $200 at the most annually. That...
by siriusblack
Thu May 25, 2023 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit the stock jackpot through neglect - need an exit strategy
Replies: 48
Views: 9076

Re: Hit the stock jackpot through neglect - need an exit strategy

Since these companies are both in the Dow 30, there are free "value line" reports on both of these companies available online. (You have to buy a VL subscription if you want to research any company outside the Dow Jones.)

Go here:
https://research.valueline.com/research ... 0&sec=list

Then download the PDF for Amgen and Microsoft.

These companies are not going to collapse anytime soon. Both have value line's highest rating for safety, and you can see their net financial position on the left.

My advice: Don't do anything impulsive. Take your time, plan, and implement a diversification strategy that strikes the balance you need (across tax, portfolio AA, etc.)
by siriusblack
Tue May 23, 2023 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the market grow?
Replies: 64
Views: 4773

Re: Why does the market grow?

I’m not talking about individual companies. Looking at the markets as a whole. Where does all the new $s come from? New money has to go in for it to keep going up. Short answer = VALUE CREATION. Human brains and bodies consume energy provided by the sun via human food sources, in order to create goods & services that are valuable to other humans, and this output increases exponentially over time as humans proliferate and get better and better at value creation. Long answer = Things don't go up because of new money coming in. Things go up because people are willing to pay more today vs. previously. Take my house for example: Its "market value" has risen despite the fact that I haven't put new money into it. The market value is...
by siriusblack
Mon May 22, 2023 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 70 years old with a 50/50 portfolio too aggressive?
Replies: 60
Views: 10958

Re: 70 years old with a 50/50 portfolio too aggressive?

I think the OP's comments highlight what I believe to be a "weak spot" on this great forum: a general lack of appreciation or respect for the risk inherent in that second number of a "X/Y" allocation. By a wide margin, it seems that most discussions and plans focus on the risks associated with the first number, and the general tone is that the second number is "safe". This past year as members posted their shock at seeing balances from portion of their portfolio in that second number fall double digits, other members were quick to post "well bonds aren't 'safe' they are just 'safer'" or "it would have been worse if you had a higher stock allocation". While both are true statements, for many...
by siriusblack
Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house can I afford (1 stable, 1 unstable job)?
Replies: 10
Views: 1189

Re: How much house can I afford (1 stable, 1 unstable job)?

I think it all comes down to your risk tolerance, and your willingness to sell that house if a worst-case scenario materializes.

If I were in your shoes, quite honestly, I'd be looking for something around 10-12X which can be supported by Job 1 alone for an extended period if needed. That way, in a worst case scenario, you only have to worry about 3X-5X mortgage (after 5X down-payment and exhausting your 2X taxable investments). I wouldn't even factor in the retirement assets.

But that's a conservative answer, I know. Your numbers will most likely be fine... 15X sounds like no problem, as long as Job 2 doesn't vanish completely for a long period of time.
by siriusblack
Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windshield replacement $1,800. Would you use insurance?
Replies: 45
Views: 4734

Re: Windshield replacement $1,800. Would you use insurance?

Do you have a local insurance agent that you work with? (Or do you deal directly with corporate?) If so, you should call your local insurance agent and ask their advice. I had same scenario recently ($1400 for windshield) and my local agent was very clear with me that it will not, and it cannot, affect my rates. So there was no harm whatsoever in processing as an insurance claim.
by siriusblack
Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asset Allocation for a UMTA account
Replies: 12
Views: 680

Re: Asset Allocation for a UMTA account

We have the same set up for our kids -- ours is 100% VTI. Presumably, it's a 10-20 year investment, so in my mind that's the right risk/reward equation.
by siriusblack
Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:20 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: your favorite quotes & one-liners
Replies: 272
Views: 48947

Re:

Time is Money. ( Time = Money ) Knowledge is Power. ( Knowledge = Power ) Work is Power times Time. ( Work = Power x Time ) From the latter we get: Time = Work / Power Substituting Money for Time and Knowledge for Power, we get: Money = Work / Knowledge Morale : The more Knowledge you possess the less Money you get ! Victoria No wonder Buddha had to beg for a living :-) What a great thread! Reading top to bottom... and I know I'm responding to a post from like 15 years ago: There's a mistake in the equation here. When we say Time=Money, what we mean is you either trade time for money, OR you trade money for time. So, it should be: Time = -Money. Or, -Time = Money. (Notice the negative sign.) This makes the final equation: Money = - Work / ...
by siriusblack
Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: LLC address advice
Replies: 22
Views: 2255

Re: LLC address advice

In my state (North Carolina), you can't use UPS store as the official address for your LLC, because the address needs to be "a physical office where you are available to receive documents and service of process on behalf of your LLC". In other words, someone needs to be there who can receive things for you. PO boxes and UPS stores do not meet those requirements. If you don't want it to be your home address, you'll probably need a registered agent service. However, I would not recommend you use your registered agent for anything else -- e.g. banking -- because they are not designed to handle day-to-day correspondence. (Unless they happen to offer that service in addition to being a basic registered agent.) I created an LLC in 2021....
by siriusblack
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2781

Re: Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?

Thanks everyone! I decided to go with insurance and opened a claim. I talked for a while also with my insurance agent who ran all the numbers for me in advance -- bottom line, it will most likely be a break-even decision, and using insurance gives more protection to both me and the neighbor.
Thanks again!
by siriusblack
Tue Sep 13, 2022 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2781

Re: Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?

Neighbor and his wife are retired -- I believe he is able/willing to have 1 car during the repairs, but this is a great point for me to check on explicitly (thanks!)

Regarding the deductible going forward -- that's a great point too -- maybe should run some numbers on that too (at the same time as I'm dealing with this)
by siriusblack
Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?
Replies: 16
Views: 2781

Car accident with teen driver - should we involve insurance?

Hi bogleheads, I have a teen driver who recently got in a minor accident with a neighbor's car in front of our house. (Or at least we thought it was a minor accident.) I told the neighbor I would just pay out of pocket for the damage. He just came back with 2 quotes -- both are in the $5,000 range because there was more extensive damage than it appeared. Obviously, I'm now debating whether to pay out of pocket or whether to get my insurance company involved. Would appreciate any advice you may have. Questions: 1. If I call the insurance company, do you think I will have any problems with the fact that the accident was about 2 weeks ago and not originally reported? (There was also no police report. So the only formal record of the accident i...
by siriusblack
Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Failing
Replies: 103
Views: 15916

Re: Failing

So sorry to hear all your difficulties. In addition to the many good suggestions above, I think you need to establish firm boundaries with your non-cooperative spouse. (Until or unless he is willing to work with you.) If he is not willing to collaborate with you on cutting expenses or increasing income-- and if this is putting you on a path to "losing everything"-- then you need to implement measures to protect yourself and your kids. This means focusing immediately on the things YOU can control. For example: (1) Does he have access to the bank account where your paycheck is deposited? If so, open a new checking account and do not give him access, until he agrees to collaborate with you on finances. (2) Do not allow any money to l...
by siriusblack
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529 question and bear market [Change asset allocation?]
Replies: 16
Views: 811

Re: 529 question and bear market

I'm in a similar situation with my oldest child planning to enter college in ~2 years. In my case, I've decided to keep the allocation to stocks as-is, based on the following: 1. My "need" to take risk is "medium". On one hand, the 529 is not yet sufficient to fully cover 4 years state university tuition+room+board. On the other hand, it's more than sufficient to cover 4 years tuition, or 2 years university + 2 years community college. 2. While I understand this time may be different -- my understanding is that in the majority of cases historically the market has recovered from a bear within 2 years. I understand it's not a guarantee, but I'm willing to tolerate some level of downside risk in order to have the possibilit...
by siriusblack
Tue May 17, 2022 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The bear market for stocks isn't over" and other certainties in the financial media
Replies: 30
Views: 4120

"The bear market for stocks isn't over" and other certainties in the financial media

Now that I'm an enlightened "know nothing" investor (thanks very much to this forum)... I've been mildly amused recently by all the expert pronouncements that have been popping up in my feed recently. "The bear market for stocks isn't over. It may have aways to go." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-are-now-starting-to-feel-the-5-stages-of-bear-market-grief-11652774279 (By the way... note the stellar editing, "aways".) "Stocks could fall another 15%" https://fortune.com/2022/05/16/how-low-will-stocks-go-recession-risk-outlook-morgan-stanley-bear-market/ (Ummm.... ok... love the precision here, which they say was calculated based on a combination of "valuation and technical support...
by siriusblack
Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS underperforming regular bonds in 2022?
Replies: 25
Views: 2823

Re: TIPS underperforming regular bonds in 2022?

I would have expected TIPS to perform higher, simply because of high inflation overall. But from reading these responses, I can see that it's much more complicated than that. Thanks for the insights everyone! Makes sense especially that short timeframe, plus the quarterly dividends not yet being factored in, plus the general expectation that the Fed will fight inflation thus lower relative performance of TIPS vs. non-TIPS... all contribute here.
by siriusblack
Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS underperforming regular bonds in 2022?
Replies: 25
Views: 2823

TIPS underperforming regular bonds in 2022?

Hey bogleheads-- quick question for you.

I just logged into my 401k for the first time so far in 2022. I have my bonds funds split 50/50 between a TIPS fund (fidelity inflation protected bond fund) and a regular bond fund (Vanguard intermediate bond index).

I noticed the TIPS fund is underperforming my normal fund so far in 2022 (YTD basis).

How could that be??
by siriusblack
Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 26677

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

I think you already know what you're going to do. You have a solid financial foundation, you can afford to go full-time with your passion whenever you decide to do that. You need to be ready for some contingencies though, in case the market environment (for either your portfolio or your side hustle) fails to meet your needs. Maybe you shouldn't quit until it's a lot closer to your 40k target. The wisest thing is probably to hang on to your corporate job as long as you can stand it ... but there are life and fulfillment tradeoffs in play here, too, I understand fully the strong urge to go ahead and jump.
by siriusblack
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for 100x moonshots
Replies: 108
Views: 21674

Re: Suggestions for 100x moonshots

You only need a compound annual growth of 58% to achieve 10 year return of 100x (ha ha, piece of cake right?). Sure... you could try to do it a lot faster with options... but taking your post at face value, I think a high-flying tech stock is the more viable path. You have to pick a good one though! Pick a software company with revenue < 1B. One such name is MongoDB, and I'm sure there are many others in a similar phase of their growth curve. (Take a look at the financials, it grew from $150 million in revenue in 2018 to $450 million in 2020. That's higher than 58%. But can they sustain that growth rate for 10 more years? Who knows what will happen... could keep growing, could slow down or reverse, or could get acquired by a bigger fish.)
by siriusblack
Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a website online?
Replies: 11
Views: 1545

Re: Buying a website online?

doss wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:12 am I have sold a couple of revenue generating websites back around 2010 on the site www.flippa.com

Great experience.
Sorry for the confusion everyone! Yes, I was thinking more about actual sites that generate revenue, like what you might find on flippa. (I've checked that one out before -- do you think most of the sellers on there are legit?)
by siriusblack
Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying a website online?
Replies: 11
Views: 1545

Buying a website online?

Hey bogleheads, does anyone have any experience investing in websites on the secondary market (i.e. buying an existing website with intent to either flip it or use it as an income-generating investment, sort of the digital equivalent to investing in real estate) using any of the popular online marketplaces for this sort of thing? If so -- interested in any tips/advice/experiences you would be willing to offer, and/or which marketplaces are the best ones to start with. Any major gotchas etc. or particular things to watch out for?

(Note: This would not be a major % of my net worth-- not abandoning the classic boglehead philosophy. More of a side gig kind of thing.)
by siriusblack
Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 6958

Re: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?

1. I agree with everyone above who said do some reflection on risk tolerance to pick an AA that you are more comfortable with (for the long term) 2. Invest 50% into that AA today (or, Monday I guess) 3. Circle a date on your calendar in, let's say, 6 months, when you will invest the remaining 50%. Someone above said that DCA is a "mental parlor trick" and they are absolutely correct-- however, I still recommend it in your situation, because it will give you the courage to get back into the market. (In 6 months, you can tell yourself one of two stories depending on what happens between now and then. 1. If the market went up, you can be glad you got your first 50% into the market before it went up. 2. If the market went down, you ca...
by siriusblack
Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prices of used cars during covid
Replies: 8
Views: 1349

Prices of used cars during covid

Hey bogleheads, I've got a 2007 Toyota Sienna that is long in the tooth-- back in April/May I started thinking about buying a used Sienna (ideally I would get something like a 2017 or 2018 model, ~2-3 years old, in the past I've always believed this to be the "sweet spot" for buying a good used vehicle). So, I figured I would be patient and watch the prices for a month or so to get a feel for the market, and then eventually pick one to buy. However.... what I've noticed is a steady (and I mean relentless) rise in prices, such that a $22,000 vehicle a few months ago is now $24-25,000. What gives? Anybody have some insight on this? Is this transient or will it persist for a while? I saw an article online that mentioned tighter suppl...
by siriusblack
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 259
Views: 39268

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

Just curious, what would happen if you paired NTSX with TAIL (Cambria Tail Risk ETF)? That's a really interesting thought-- since Jan 1, 2019 that combination has done pretty amazing: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+...
by siriusblack
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 221
Views: 33734

Re: PSA: gold

Lock wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:58 pm
market timer wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:21 pm The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate

Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value of $1172.

You can interpret this formula as saying gold is like an inflation-adjusted bond that pays you $1800 (inflation adjusted) after 33 years. You could tinker with the parameters ($1800, 33 years) to find the best fit, but at least the intuition seems reasonable.
Markettimer - out of curiosity - where did this equation come from?
Market timer, you would have done well as a theoretical physicist.
by siriusblack
Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: hyper inflation hedges
Replies: 54
Views: 4448

Re: hyper inflation hedges

In 2019, how were you preparing against a pandemic? I can't recall any discussion of it in the forum. While no one (or very few) were explicitly preparing for a pandemic -- many on this forum were in fact prepared in the sense that their diversified investment portfolio shielded them from the severity of the market volatility. You can't name every possible calamity in the future-- but you can be generically prepared for many potential futures. I think the best hedge against hyperinflation (or at least a partial hedge, acknowledging the passport option as the best one-- since the entire economic system will be in turmoil under hyperinflation) is (a) owning a home and possibly a rental property or two, (b) staying invested with percentage of...
by siriusblack
Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum -or- DCA approach always petrifies me
Replies: 47
Views: 3038

Re: Lump Sum -or- DCA approach always petrifies me

Might be helpful to use your imagination to consider the following two scenarios: (1) Imagination scenario #1: You actually received the money 5 years ago, and it's been sitting in your desired asset allocation the entire time (let's just say 60/40 or whatever). So .... you're sitting on a large 60/40 portfolio today. What would you do next? Keep it invested as-is? Adjust your asset allocation to a risk tolerance you are more comfortable with? e.g. 50/50? Move to cash? (Probably not!) (2) Imagination scenario #2: You are actually not doing this for yourself, but for a very good friend. You just discovered that your friend has a HUGE bank account all in cash. What would you tell him to do? Option 1- Pick an asset allocation that your friend ...
by siriusblack
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flexing your frugality - are 0% loans to friends wrong?
Replies: 54
Views: 4256

Re: Flexing your frugality - are 0% loans to friends wrong?

oldfort wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:37 pm Don't loan anything you couldn't write off as a gift.
+1

Gift money to your friends and family. Loan money to other people.
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 765
Views: 50401

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

On a less silly note.........

I was recently contacted by a relative asking for advice. This relative sold all stocks for cash in late March 2020, pretty near the bottom. Still sitting in cash, and absolutely wracked with guilt/fear about re-investing. My advice was very simple:

1. Pick you AA (60/40 or whatever)
2. Invest the money today. However, if you absolutely cannot bring yourself to do it (due to fear), then invest 50% today, and invest 50% in 3 months ... if it helps you sleep it night. There is no great harm in it, and this is better than sitting on your cash in fear.

Logical? No. Practical and helpful? Yes.
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 765
Views: 50401

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

Here's another syllogism just for fun:

1. Mental accounting is fallacious.
2. All accounting is mental.
3. Accounting is fallacious.
by siriusblack
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 21
Views: 3718

Re: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice

I just plugged your #'s in the VPW spreadsheet (2.6M assets, 60/40 allocation, age 59, and taking social security at age 70 with $5180/month expected). It says you can withdraw $156k per year. (And then after age 70, you withdraw that amount after subtracting social security amount.) If the stock portion of your portfolio takes a 50% haircut (crash or recession or whatever), you'll need to adjust your spending down to $120k per year.
by siriusblack
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 21
Views: 3718

Re: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice

I'll 2nd the post suggesting a look at the VPW method. There is a downloadable spreadsheet that is quite useful. With such a high portfolio value, and only 11 years to fully fund expenses until starting SS, you are in excellent shape! (Conceptually the way the VPW works is it looks at your future SS value and creates a "bridge portfolio" to fund the next 11 years. That bridge portfolio will drawdown to $0 at age 70 if returns are as expected. The remainder of your portfolio needs to last for the rest of your life-- so basically you get a perpetual withdraw rate on the balance of your portfolio.)
by siriusblack
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain to me how bonds could possibly be used for any sort of significant income or gains?
Replies: 50
Views: 4309

Re: Can someone explain to me how bonds could possibly be used for any sort of significant income or gains?

02nz wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:42 am Look at your portfolio as a whole. Bonds support the portfolio by cushioning the volatility. See also sequence of returns risk. No, bonds don't score the big points, but that doesn't mean you strip your portfolio to only the components that do. Think of bonds and stocks as different roles on a team - just because the goalkeeper never scores a point, doesn't mean you'll do just fine without the goalkeeper.
Great analogy!
by siriusblack
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on my situation
Replies: 8
Views: 994

Re: Advice on my situation

I won't answer #1 as I'm not qualified to answer (but I'm sure other bogleheads will chime in).

For #2-- I think it's a toss-up honestly -- your tax bracket in retirement may (or may not) be higher than 24%. Check out the wiki here (see "rules of thumb"): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Roth_IRA_conversion
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 499
Views: 41437

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

OP-- Please don't interpret this post to be critical or "judgy" as my kids say, just wanted to throw it out there in the spirit of friendly discussion. (And to be clear I am NOT against people buying expensive toys, etc., and I wouldn't think badly of you in the slightest for doing so.) 150-200k is a life-changing amount of money for many (most) people. The sports car will rust in your driveway and depreciate. I'm betting you get bagels about 2-3 times before it gets old. Imagine the "fun" and joy you would derive from changing someone's life -- you could start a college scholarship fund for at-risk youth who live near you, and personally select the recipients or spend time getting to know them and helping them get start...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford 600k house?
Replies: 98
Views: 13025

Re: Can we afford 600k house?

OP, My wife and I made a similar decision in our mid-30's on similar salary (single income, was ~130k at the time) and similar retirement savings. We "stretched" for a ~400k house and don't regret it. At 600k though I would personally be hyperventilating in your situation. Perhaps it depends a lot on the security of your job. I'm in tech industry and I know things can change a lot in a few years. If you are government related or something else very stable, perhaps you can take more risk. One thing I will say: Houses are tools for raising kids. We look back on that decision as a very very good one. We are grateful we moved into a GREAT neighborhood for the kids, and our house is a source of comfort and stability for the family. (As...
by siriusblack
Fri May 22, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 7278

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

I don't buy individual stocks to make a killing. In general I expect the returns to be more or less in line with the broader market. I buy individual stocks with a small % of my portfolio because: 1. I like it 2. It's educational 3. It keeps me grounded in the realities of business & the economy 4. It helps me with my regular job (business planning / product management) 5. It keeps me from doing stupid things with the majority of my portfolio 6. It helps me understand the fundamentals of the stock market-- and this reinforces #5-- i.e. I think I'm less likely to bail on the stock market because I understand how cash flow and earnings are related to stock prices Those are what you see as the pros. What are the cons? I think many others ...