Search found 191 matches

by siriusblack
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flexing your frugality - are 0% loans to friends wrong?
Replies: 54
Views: 3190

Re: Flexing your frugality - are 0% loans to friends wrong?

oldfort wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:37 pm
Don't loan anything you couldn't write off as a gift.
+1

Gift money to your friends and family. Loan money to other people.
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 752
Views: 32889

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

On a less silly note......... I was recently contacted by a relative asking for advice. This relative sold all stocks for cash in late March 2020, pretty near the bottom. Still sitting in cash, and absolutely wracked with guilt/fear about re-investing. My advice was very simple: 1. Pick you AA (60/4...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 13, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 752
Views: 32889

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

Here's another syllogism just for fun:

1. Mental accounting is fallacious.
2. All accounting is mental.
3. Accounting is fallacious.
by siriusblack
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 21
Views: 3133

Re: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice

I just plugged your #'s in the VPW spreadsheet (2.6M assets, 60/40 allocation, age 59, and taking social security at age 70 with $5180/month expected). It says you can withdraw $156k per year. (And then after age 70, you withdraw that amount after subtracting social security amount.) If the stock po...
by siriusblack
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice
Replies: 21
Views: 3133

Re: Unexpected Early Retirement - Need Portfolio Advice

I'll 2nd the post suggesting a look at the VPW method. There is a downloadable spreadsheet that is quite useful. With such a high portfolio value, and only 11 years to fully fund expenses until starting SS, you are in excellent shape! (Conceptually the way the VPW works is it looks at your future SS...
by siriusblack
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain to me how bonds could possibly be used for any sort of significant income or gains?
Replies: 50
Views: 3586

Re: Can someone explain to me how bonds could possibly be used for any sort of significant income or gains?

Look at your portfolio as a whole. Bonds support the portfolio by cushioning the volatility. See also sequence of returns risk. No, bonds don't score the big points, but that doesn't mean you strip your portfolio to only the components that do. Think of bonds and stocks as different roles on a team...
by siriusblack
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on my situation
Replies: 8
Views: 836

Re: Advice on my situation

I won't answer #1 as I'm not qualified to answer (but I'm sure other bogleheads will chime in). For #2-- I think it's a toss-up honestly -- your tax bracket in retirement may (or may not) be higher than 24%. Check out the wiki here (see "rules of thumb"): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Roth_IRA_con...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 446
Views: 24445

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

OP-- Please don't interpret this post to be critical or "judgy" as my kids say, just wanted to throw it out there in the spirit of friendly discussion. (And to be clear I am NOT against people buying expensive toys, etc., and I wouldn't think badly of you in the slightest for doing so.) 150-200k is ...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford 600k house?
Replies: 95
Views: 8792

Re: Can we afford 600k house?

OP, My wife and I made a similar decision in our mid-30's on similar salary (single income, was ~130k at the time) and similar retirement savings. We "stretched" for a ~400k house and don't regret it. At 600k though I would personally be hyperventilating in your situation. Perhaps it depends a lot o...
by siriusblack
Fri May 22, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 60
Views: 3830

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

I don't buy individual stocks to make a killing. In general I expect the returns to be more or less in line with the broader market. I buy individual stocks with a small % of my portfolio because: 1. I like it 2. It's educational 3. It keeps me grounded in the realities of business & the economy 4....
by siriusblack
Fri May 22, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 60
Views: 3830

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

I don't buy individual stocks to make a killing. In general I expect the returns to be more or less in line with the broader market. I buy individual stocks with a small % of my portfolio because: 1. I like it 2. It's educational 3. It keeps me grounded in the realities of business & the economy 4. ...
by siriusblack
Wed May 13, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?
Replies: 160
Views: 7784

Re: Should you include home equity in Net Worth?

The assertion being made by "the inconsistency is mindboggling" is that bogleheads both: 1. Don't approve of holding a large portion of one's portfolio in large, undiversified real estate investments 2. Do approve of holding a large portion of one's portfolio in large, undiversified real estate inv...
by siriusblack
Fri May 08, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 17279

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

This was the most insightful part of the article, I think... :shock: A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on .” Indeed. I find it interesting and a bit amusing that m...
by siriusblack
Fri May 01, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?
Replies: 48
Views: 3424

Re: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?

I use OneDrive extensively, along with LastPass.

OneDrive has a "personal vault" which is basically an encrypted container in your OneDrive storage. (I've never used it though... my stuff is just in the normal OneDrive space.)
by siriusblack
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds are for fools
Replies: 19
Views: 1596

Re: Long bonds are for fools

Long bonds (even from interest rate of 1.35%) can still go up A LOT from today's price levels. Convexity is the reason: https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Also-- as a component in an overall diversified portfolio, long bonds reduce overal...
by siriusblack
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Conclusion... there's no viable way to invest in spot oil prices for the long-term?
Replies: 14
Views: 1007

Re: In Conclusion... there's no viable way to invest in spot oil prices for the long-term?

I bought a tiny amount of ERX this week -- if it goes to zero I don't care, but there is a chance that it could go up significantly in the future if things normalize.
by siriusblack
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone sell puts in order to force re-balancing and collect premiums?
Replies: 34
Views: 1713

Re: Does anyone sell puts in order to force re-balancing and collect premiums?

He's not incurring a cost -- the premium goes the other way, i.e. someone else is paying him for a put option.
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No longer desiring promotion - change career?
Replies: 43
Views: 2898

Re: No longer desiring promotion - change career?

OP-- you are wise beyond years. Middle management is much higher stress, and you are much more dispensable unless you have a major/core talent for management. The pressure and politics of dealing with upper management is much higher, and you can easily get into an "up or out" situation. Longevity an...
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: investing 1 million dollars - I'm new and struggling to know when!
Replies: 19
Views: 2003

Re: investing 1 million dollars - I'm new and struggling to know when!

Hello there, Last year, my husband was killed in an airplane crash. I'm 49 years old, I've got two teenagers heading to college in a few years, a decent job I'd like to continue, a paid off house, and a small widow's benefit - so I won't be poverty stricken. I've also received just over 1 million d...
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share your experience if you timed the market
Replies: 38
Views: 2377

Re: Share your experience if you timed the market

Unless it's real-time, never believe anyone on the Internet or your brother-in-law or your next-door neighbor how about how well they timed the market in the past, even the near past. +1 People will only tell you about the wins. They won't tell you about the losses. Brag: I doubled my money in a Ve...
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off!!
Replies: 71
Views: 10331

Re: Laid off!!

OP-- I agree with many others on this thread who have encouraged you to remember that this was not personal at all, not a reflection of your value or ability or past/potential contribution. I'm in middle management in a mid-size tech company and in my experience these decisions are often made with v...
by siriusblack
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179220

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Tyler9000 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:24 pm
If you have a few minutes, here's a longer explanation I wrote on bond convexity including a few notes on how it affects different types of portfolios.
WOW, great article-- thanks!! Actually, possibly the best bond article I've ever read-- going in my bookmarks folder.
by siriusblack
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179220

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I wonder the same thing-- I'm feeling nervous about anything in my portfolio with LTT exposure. I haven't heard any really good commentary (from someone like Browne, Swedroe etc.) on whether LTT still fits.
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 140
Views: 16922

Re: Still using total bond market?

I wouldn't be surprised if the future wisdom is to hold some combination of CDs, high-yield savings, short-term TIPS, and long-term Treasuries. It's an extremely low credit risk barbell. Throw in some gold, and you have something approaching the "permanent portfolio". 25% gold, 25% cash (or short-t...
by siriusblack
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179220

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Resurrecting this thread .......... I was reading up this weekend on how the permanent portfolio did recently -- not surprisingly, it has held up extremely well. I was thinking about a variation on the PP using NTSX (to sort of replace the stock component) and SWAN (to sort of replace the LTT compon...
by siriusblack
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10039

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:29 pm
... real returns of about 2% or 3%...
That translates to nominal returns of 4-5%.
by siriusblack
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have a sizable portfolio, you don't need an emergency fund
Replies: 140
Views: 10486

Re: If you have a sizable portfolio, you don't need an emergency fund

My wife would divorce me if I invested our emergency fund.
by siriusblack
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 275
Views: 25651

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I hold a $1M mortgage so they absolutely are. What do you mean? your mortgage is separate from your investment in PSLDX... Yes, but all leverage is is debt. It doesn't matter whether the debt is secured by a house or not. And it doesn't matter whether the debt is 'inside' your portfolio in the form...
by siriusblack
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4192

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

In a bear market, stocks will ALWAYS look like the worst asset class. The proper reference point would be a similarly bleak time in the stock market, after a 25-30% drop. Also-- In 1-2 years, stocks will be double what they are today. That's a bold statement for 1-2 years. I have no such confidence...
by siriusblack
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4192

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

In a bear market, stocks will ALWAYS look like the worst asset class. The proper reference point would be a similarly bleak time in the stock market, after a 25-30% drop.

Also-- In 1-2 years, stocks will be double what they are today.
by siriusblack
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11696

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

I think HEDGEFUNDIE has the best approach. Most of the other comments sound like they were written by Dave Ramsey. You have just committed the guilt-by-association fallacy. The arguments are what matter-- the source (or presumed association to someone else who thinks similarly) does not. As for me,...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18138

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Thanks guys and yes, I'm buying and holding. I'm doing what Jack Bogle said and again, I only thought this was different because of The Great Shutdown (I know you guys hate that term but I promise it's the last time I'll use it lol :D). As I told Moto, I understand my Risk Tolerance fully and despi...
by siriusblack
Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seek Mental Health Help, Negative Consequences and Adverse Actions in future Personal Finance matters?
Replies: 30
Views: 2061

Re: Seek Mental Health Help, Negative Consequences and Adverse Actions in future Personal Finance matters?

I'm thinking of seeking out some mental health professionals because it is a very stressful time like this. But I am very concerned of possible negativ consequences or adverse actions for future personal finance related matters. I'll give a non mental health example. All your insurance examinations...
by siriusblack
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 portfolio in down market. Need help with math.
Replies: 8
Views: 1325

Re: 60:40 portfolio in down market. Need help with math.

Assume: Total invested assets (T) :......... 10 million. Stocks S & P index (S) : ..........................6 M Bond/ Stable value fund (B) . ..................4 M Stock market starts going down. Every time the AA drifts by 5% ( 55: 45 etc) the investor re-balances to the original AA. However rebal...
by siriusblack
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107305

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I have market timed only twice, and both times they were very good calls. I got 100% into bonds (G Fund, TSP) just before the dot com bubble burst, and just before the housing crash. I avoided huge drawdowns and made good money in bonds at those times. However.... I was WAY too slow getting back in...
by siriusblack
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to pair with NTSX?
Replies: 223
Views: 15977

Re: What to pair with NTSX?

UPDATE: I moved to 70/20/10 NTSX / Vanguard LT Treasuries / Vanguard Real Estate (in my smallest account, Roth IRA) on 1/31/2020. Results: Starting value = $22,250 (1/31). Peak value = $23,081 (2/20). Up 3.7% from start. As a comparison, Vanguard Balanced Fund (60/40) was up 3.1% over same time peri...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3983
Views: 302511

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I've been following this thread for weeks now, and I still have one very simple question: can someone quantify why we should expect global public companies to be worth 30% less than they were at the start of the year going forward? Simply put: Vanguard Total World is down over 30% from the start of...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18138

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

In 2001, I had just started my investing career-- I thought I had outsmarted the market by minimizing equity exposure even before the market started going down, but in hindsight, I stayed at low exposure too long, and my returns were pathetic going forward because my AA was way too conservative for...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18138

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct? The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try: I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future. Please explain. DOW is at 19000 as of yesterday. States are shutting down. Sectors are shutting down. Not havi...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18138

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

It sounds like you are a bit earlier in your investing career, is that correct?

The future is hard to predict-- but I'll try:

I predict you will come to regret this decision in the future.
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing 401k
Replies: 2
Views: 174

Re: Rebalancing 401k

I rebalanced this week (actually, I slightly over-balanced towards stocks). It felt horrible!-- And I'm second-guessing whether I should have done it. If the market drops another 25% from today's values (which some are predicting, resulting in a total -50% from peak), I'm going to have some regret. ...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8104

Re: Is it really that bad?

I will take a different perspective. Firstly, if you sat still you didn't lose a thing. If you owned 100 shares of XYZ yesterday and prices decreased and you did nothing, then you own 100 shares of XYZ today. The only difference is that Mr Market will pay you less. So don't sell. Simple, assuming y...
by siriusblack
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's paradigm change
Replies: 46
Views: 2856

Re: Ray Dalio's paradigm change

You can read about it here. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-you-know-whats-true-facts-rumors-panics-ray-dalio/ Basically Dalio says that the likely scenario is that central banks will be printing lots of money, interest rates will stay low. Therefore, s far as I understand inflation will thus...
by siriusblack
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stay with Vanguard Total Bond or something else?
Replies: 9
Views: 1456

Re: Stay with Vanguard Total Bond or something else?

I've been pondering the same thing. I've seen other bogleheads who split their bond allocation between long-term treasury, and short-term TIPS -- presumably this performs reasonably well to reduce portfolio risk (LTT's) while also having some staglation hedge (TIPS). Not sure how well that works in ...
by siriusblack
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 306
Views: 27569

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I'm planning to "over-balance" to 65/45 (from about 60/40 today) -- probably later this week, unless stocks go back up (which doesn't seem likely but we'll see).
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2326

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

Note for office 365, you may be able to get a large lifelong discount on your subscription if you work for a corporation who are microsoft users, when you first subscribe. (Forget the exact details, just flagging that it's worth checking.) (You prove you are the employee of someone with the right t...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2326

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

Note for office 365, you may be able to get a large lifelong discount on your subscription if you work for a corporation who are microsoft users, when you first subscribe. (Forget the exact details, just flagging that it's worth checking.) (You prove you are the employee of someone with the right t...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010
Replies: 37
Views: 2326

Re: Google sheets vs Excel; end of life Office 2010

I recently pulled the trigger on Microsoft 365 -- and I have to say it's really a pretty incredible value. $100 per year (or $90 for 15 months if you buy at Costco)-- and it gives you 3 MAJOR benefits: 1. Ability to run latest Office apps on up to 5 devices at once, per user. (So, really up to 30 de...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Individual stocks are you buying?
Replies: 123
Views: 9623

Re: What Individual stocks are you buying?

I *accidentally* bought a bunch of individual stocks this week ... Explanation: Some time ago I submitted a bunch of GTC orders at 25+% discounts for a number of stocks. MSFT, MDB, GS, TRV, DOW. (How did I pick these -- I'm in software industry and I see MSFT and MDB on very long-term sustainable gr...