Search found 102 matches

by siriusblack
Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Not gaining weight on vacation?
Replies: 115
Views: 5833

Re: Not gaining weight on vacation?

+1 to portion control. Especially-- try to limit simple carbs, heavily processed foods, and sugars to a bare minimum. (Bread, potatoes, chips, fries, cereals, sugary drinks, etc.-- anything that your body can break down really quickly and convert to blood sugar. These will spike your insulin and tri...
by siriusblack
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College cost prediction and savings for 5, 3, and newborn
Replies: 102
Views: 6255

Re: College cost prediction and savings for 5, 3, and newborn

My advice (and what we've done) is to use 529's for some of your college costs, and cash-flow a portion also (or take from other savings vehicles)-- this hedges bets because lots of things could happen between now and then. We use the 529 for the equivalent of in-state university tuition/fees/etc. (...
by siriusblack
Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 135
Views: 22234

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

OP -- LOVE the spreadsheet. Thanks so much for this post. Super helpful and easy-to-use tool. I really like the concept of varying withdrawals based on portfolio value. Question: On the accumulation worksheet, how can you see the expected portfolio value at retirement (so you can then plug that numb...
by siriusblack
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighbor Keeps Mildy Trespassing
Replies: 19
Views: 3022

Re: Neighbor Keeps Mildy Trespassing

Ask him for a small favor one day. ("Hey, I'm gonna be out of town this weekend-- I really hate to ask, but would you mind grabbing my mail for a couple days? I would be happy to do the same for you anytime.") There's research that says people are more likely to be nice to you after they've done you...
by siriusblack
Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Depreciation graph for Toyota Sienna?
Replies: 1
Views: 362

Depreciation graph for Toyota Sienna?

Has anyone seen data anywhere on the typical depreciation of a Toyota Sienna? (By age / mileage)
by siriusblack
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 70
Views: 7829

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

Why not just buy stocks like Blackstone or MAIN etc.?
by siriusblack
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are your 30s financially different than your late 20s?
Replies: 47
Views: 6025

Re: How are your 30s financially different than your late 20s?

2. Did you find yourself spending more on your children as they got older? Yes, absolutely! Babies are pretty much free. People throw you "showers", give you diapers and hand-me-down clothes, and your parents offer to baby-sit for free. As they go from toddler to pre-school, they're still pretty in...
by siriusblack
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are your 30s financially different than your late 20s?
Replies: 47
Views: 6025

Re: How are your 30s financially different than your late 20s?

2. Did you find yourself spending more on your children as they got older? Yes, absolutely! Babies are pretty much free. People throw you "showers", give you diapers and hand-me-down clothes, and your parents offer to baby-sit for free. As they go from toddler to pre-school, they're still pretty in...
by siriusblack
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?
Replies: 18
Views: 1233

Re: What to read prior to visiting ancient sites in Athens?

Many years ago my wife wanted a short and accessible intro to Greek history/culture and she ended up buying:
https://www.amazon.com/These-Were-Greek ... 0802312756

It was pretty easy to read and gave a good overview.
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 17100

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I have little doubt that a portfolio of stocks and long-term bonds has been the most efficient. Honestly, it has been a thing of beauty to see MPT at work. However, I have little confidence that our historical record includes all possible crises. It is entirely possible that a future crisis might b...
by siriusblack
Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 17100

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

Few aphorisms are so blithely repeated as "bonds are for safety", and I've always wondered how such an illogical piece of advice came to become so commonly accepted. Some of the popularity that this "bonds are for safety" has to do with the weak grasp that many investors, even professional investor...
by siriusblack
Thu May 30, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 180
Views: 17616

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

I know some golfers who work at local golf courses. They get free golf. Some are also paid, some are volunteers. That probably depends on how much they work and how unpleasant the work is. That's my goal. Make a small paycheck and knock out one of my major retirement expenses (golf). My dad does th...
by siriusblack
Thu May 30, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun paid jobs after FIRE
Replies: 180
Views: 17616

Re: Fun paid jobs after FIRE

My ideal semi-retirement job is a financial planner/coach. Cap the number of clients and work flexible hours, add value to other people, do something interesting (financial planning), etc.
by siriusblack
Thu May 30, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paid off house - what are the next steps to protect it?
Replies: 5
Views: 1440

Re: Paid off house - what are the next steps to protect it?

Umbrella insurance might be worthwhile also-- not specifically for the house but just in general as your assets grow and net worth increases
by siriusblack
Fri May 17, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest or Payoff Home
Replies: 38
Views: 3012

Re: Invest or Payoff Home

Here is my current situation and I'm not sure where to put my 244K cash. Payoff the mortgage or invest or keep some cash for a pullback and other opportunities or pay down the mortgage? Currently, I have 245K in an online bank earning 2.20%. I keep it here to get a decent return until I decide how ...
by siriusblack
Mon May 13, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

In a 2015 article, Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau presented the results of an analysis that suggested some advantage in CAPE-based asset allocation: https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/increasing-retirement-withdrawal-rates-through-asset-allocation This is a misrepresentation of the article on some ...
by siriusblack
Sat May 11, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

I have not found an updated fair value CAPE source on the internet. Where can I find “this weeks” value of the fair market CAPE if I was so inclined? The only one I've seen is Vanguard's, and I'm not sure how often they publish it. Last I saw it was in the 2019 market outlook report towards the beg...
by siriusblack
Sat May 11, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

Update: Did some backtesting yesterday. The CAPE strategy outperforms on total return; however, the effect was small, less than 1% CAGR. I tested various periods between 1985 and 2018, using Shiller's data. (To simplify the CPI and buy-back effects, I used a fair value CAPE range that increased line...
by siriusblack
Fri May 10, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

Because the issues of comparisons being less relevant over time due to buybacks and CPI changes are real. I just noticed Shiller now publishes an "alternative CAPE" spreadsheet, where he incorporates changes in corporate buyback/dividend policies. This looks interesting, I may use this instead of t...
by siriusblack
Fri May 10, 2019 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

There are lots of ways investors find value. Why put all your eggs in one metric? If CAPE is so great, why is Schiller generally wrong about the market? If you had followed CAPE over the past decade's bull market, you would have been wrong more often than right. Because the issues of comparisons be...
by siriusblack
Fri May 10, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

There are lots of ways investors find value. Why put all your eggs in one metric? If CAPE is so great, why is Schiller generally wrong about the market? If you had followed CAPE over the past decade's bull market, you would have been wrong more often than right. Not sure what you mean by "wrong". I...
by siriusblack
Fri May 10, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

My suggestion would be to vary your asset allocation among stock asset classes based on CAPE, not necessarily between stocks and bonds based on CAPE. The evidence supporting the former is stronger than the latter. Interesting-- can you share more about this? Are you thinking economic sectors (utili...
by siriusblack
Fri May 10, 2019 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

Your strategy already contains plenty of subjective elements. I'm not sure what the point would be in calculating your AA in an "exact" fashion. Backtesting any particular scheme linking AA to fair-value CAPE won't add many real information. Surely you'll find at least one CAPE-AA (within your acce...
by siriusblack
Thu May 09, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3957

CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

Bogleheads, I've been gravitating in my personal investing towards a CAPE-based asset allocation strategy. I'm wondering if anyone here is doing something similar, and/or if anyone here is aware of any good tools/methods for back-testing a CAPE-based asset allocation strategy? (I've seen the Shiller...
by siriusblack
Wed May 08, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

986racer wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 9:34 am
I was not happy in my old role and within a week of being on the new job, I realized how miserable I really was. For the next 18 months of the new job I think my happiness was probably on the level that coke addicts reach.
That's great!!!
by siriusblack
Wed May 08, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Additional time off has been great but I have found myself missing the days of greater authority and status. Perhaps consider psychotherapy as a potential method to gain insights into your motivations and emotions before making a major decision. As I've reflected more on motivations, I definitely a...
by siriusblack
Wed May 01, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Yes, it was a very difficult decision for me, but it ended up being so worth it. Below is my original post - I hope this link works: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=159778&p=2397969#p2397969 I do admit I stayed until all debts were paid, including mortgage, and enough money was...
by siriusblack
Wed May 01, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Thanks to everyone for the replies! Lots of great things for reflection.
by siriusblack
Wed May 01, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

My amateur diagnosis is you have mid career burnout. If you were to succeed in downshifting you could also find yourself dissatisfied and wondering how to rekindle your career in a year or two. Take time to evaluate your feelings and google ways to replenish your work spirit, including perhaps find...
by siriusblack
Wed May 01, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Re: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Sounds like the problem is the pressure you put on yourself, not necessarily the demands of the job. If you establish some boundaries, and get better at saying "no" (or delegating), you should be able to achieve everything you want in your current role. Yes, this really resonates with me -- and I a...
by siriusblack
Wed May 01, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone down-shifted in their career?
Replies: 59
Views: 7706

Has anyone down-shifted in their career?

Bogleheads, I'm considering down-shifting in my career, seeking a slightly lower position on the corporate ladder in exchange for lower stress, better health, and more energy for other things (family, community, learning, etc.). If others on the forum have done the same, I'm really interested to hea...
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 14270

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

Of course ... as soon as I posted this I immediately noticed the flaw in the conclusion (ha). The instantaneous P/E is completely unaffected by share buy backs. BUT it invalidates any comparison of this year's P to last year's E. (And since the CAPE uses trailing E values but not trailing P values ....
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 14270

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

1) Say there's no inflation ever and gross earnings never grow. If EPS was 1.00 every year from 2009-2018 and then the S&p buys back 50% of shares before at end of 2018, then the EPS becomes say 2.000 for 2019. The true nominal gross earnings for SPX say never changes but because 50% share reductio...
by siriusblack
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 14270

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

CAPE is dangerous to use. It is not accounting for buybacks driving earnings growth rates well above inflation in revent years when comparing to data from 100 years ago. It also doesn't account for the CPI being different THan decades ago and leading to reduced inflation adjustments. CAPE says the ...
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 99054

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't understand why you find Hussman's thoughts valuable. For me, one valuable element of this discussion is that it reminds me WHY it's important for my risk tolerance to be fully reflected in my asset allocation. Let's say for a second that Hussman is right. Could my financial plan tolerate a ...
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 99054

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't understand why you find Hussman's thoughts valuable. For me, one valuable element of this discussion is that it reminds me WHY it's important for my risk tolerance to be fully reflected in my asset allocation. Let's say for a second that Hussman is right. Could my financial plan tolerate a ...
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 99054

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't understand why you find Hussman's thoughts valuable. For me, one valuable element of this discussion is that it reminds me WHY it's important for my risk tolerance to be fully reflected in my asset allocation. Let's say for a second that Hussman is right. Could my financial plan tolerate a ...
by siriusblack
Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife hates new job...wants to quit after 1 day
Replies: 195
Views: 21234

Re: Wife hates new job...wants to quit after 1 day

Sockpuppet wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:27 am
But she really....doesn’t want to make that walk of shame. Plus she had her unstated reasons for leaving (several rounds of layoffs over the last year).
There's no shame in it -- she made a logical decision, and now she's making another logical decision with the arrival of new facts.
by siriusblack
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages Pro's and Cons
Replies: 23
Views: 1608

Re: Reverse Mortgages Pro's and Cons

I don't have anything knowledgeable to add about this ... but I'll add my own questions here. I've never understood the concept of a reverse mortgage. If your house is paid off and you want to draw income from it while still living there, why not take out a conventional interest-only mortgage, inves...
by siriusblack
Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?
Replies: 44
Views: 4601

Re: Ready to buy a new cheap smartphone - any gotchas?

I use the Moto G6 which I've been very happy with. Cricket wireless @ 30 a month ... save lots of :moneybag
by siriusblack
Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life advice or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the Bogle
Replies: 29
Views: 3187

Re: Life advice or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the Bogle

My opinion only -- take it for what it's worth -- here's what I would do if I were in your shoes: 1. +2 on the life insurance (term), 2. Pay off the car ASAP 3. In addition to your pension, you should probably also start saving 10-15% of your income for retirement (or you could use various online to...
by siriusblack
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 3173

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

I was looking today at Vanguard's multi-factor U.S. fund performance. I've been curious how the fund would perform relative to the broader market ... I wonder if this is trend, or anomaly? 1 year performance: Vanguard US multifactor: -1.0% Vanguard US total stock market: 8.69% YTD performance: Vangu...
by siriusblack
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30yo Checking In
Replies: 13
Views: 1989

Re: 30yo Checking In

Many folks have a different posture towards debt on this forum, but I frankly disagree with the comments above suggesting you should max out your 401k contributions immediately. If I were in your shoes I would keep the 6% match and then tackle the debt as aggressively as possible, starting with the ...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking about going into sales from engineering
Replies: 39
Views: 2946

Re: Thinking about going into sales from engineering

All good thoughts up above. I'll just add one thought -- you mention in your original post that you don't want to retire, but want to be able to retire. Basically, I interpret this as: you want to work, i.e. you don't want to be idle, but you want to get away from the necessity of work with money as...
by siriusblack
Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to handle IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 374

Re: How to handle IRA

Did you max out your 2018 Roth contribution last year? If not -- it's not too late -- you can make prior year contributions up until April 15 (regardless of whether you've already filed your taxes). So, if you already have the money available, you can still put it in the Roth IRA and designate it 20...
by siriusblack
Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth AND Trad 401k dilemma + portfolio help
Replies: 8
Views: 918

Re: Roth AND Trad 401k dilemma + portfolio help

GatorGuy7 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:04 pm
However, once we realized Traditional 401k contributions would be the best option for us long-term, we switched.
Hey, just curious, how did you decide this?
by siriusblack
Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100 % stock and rebalancing
Replies: 13
Views: 1334

Re: 100 % stock and rebalancing

I just ran your proposed portfolio through portfoliovisualizer. Results = https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=03%2F24%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0...
by siriusblack
Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for Hope in the Rubble of Value Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 884

Re: Looking for Hope in the Rubble of Value Investing

I believe if the value premium were gone, we’d see a narrowing in the spreads between the P/E ratios of growth and value companies. I don't think a company that is growing earnings at 6% annually should have a P/E that is similar to a company growing earnings at 20% annually. P/E's for growth compa...
by siriusblack
Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 11254

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

The experience has scarred me enough to swear off of equities, but I know that will be a wealth killer in the long run (we are still 25-30 years away from retirement). Any tips on how I can get over this feeling and go back to being a responsible/prudent investor? Thanks so much for the vulnerabili...