Search found 391 matches

by pward
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission
Replies: 37
Views: 3472

Re: E-Trade joins the party $0 commission

Does anyone know if this applies to ESPP plans managed by them too? I know I end up paying ridiculous commissions to sell ESPP and RSUs held at Etrade. And I don't even know how the commissions are calculated. They've been different every time but range between $29-86. I'm in the same boat, though ...
by pward
Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds and Gold are expensive at the same time
Replies: 13
Views: 1094

Re: Stocks, Bonds and Gold are expensive at the same time

Remember "uncorrelated" means they are sometimes positively correlated, sometimes negatively. Especially in short to medium term, these "correlations" will all bounce around. I think one could definitely make a case that stocks and bonds are expensive, but gold is still well below it's high from bac...
by pward
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why asset allocation should match market capitalization
Replies: 16
Views: 2527

Re: Why asset allocation should match market capitalization

You're going to find a range of opinions here. My opinion is that it makes absolutely 0 sense to be short your local currency and economy because you are inexorably tied to both. When you hold more long foreign than local stocks it is essentially being short your local currency and economy. Not only...
by pward
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 9769

Re: Can't believe, Vanguard is leader of Heartbeat tradings?

Of course they are, as they use their ETF heartbeats to clear cap gains on their mutual funds as well. I don't know if this should be interpreted as a bad thing though. This is perfectly legal and the IRS is aware of it and chooses to not change anything to make it illegal. So why worry?
by pward
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28902

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

"Collectables" capitol gains can also be offset by any capitol loss, including one from stocks or bonds (and vice versa). I don't believe so. Can you site IRS documents which indicate this? Collectables are logged on Schedule D just like any other capital gain/loss. If you want to dig into the week...
by pward
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28902

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

In that case, you would definitely want to hold it in a tax-advantaged account. I disagree. Gold throws off no yield or interest. You can choose to realize gains strategically whenever you want. So even if it is taxed at a capitol gains rate that is higher than stocks, the fact that you aren't gett...
by pward
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28902

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Yes, I was referring to that, but that doesn't mean it should be put in tax advantaged accounts. But what about rebalancing? Wouldn't that trigger taxes at the "collectible tax rate" in a taxable account? Of course. But gold doesn't throw off any dividend or yield so you can choose when to do this....
by pward
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28902

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

According to this GLD is deemed a collectible by the IRS: https://www.etf.com/GLD In that case, you would definitely want to hold it in a tax-advantaged account. I disagree. Gold throws off no yield or interest. You can choose to realize gains strategically whenever you want. So even if it is taxed...
by pward
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28902

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

According to this GLD is deemed a collectible by the IRS: https://www.etf.com/GLD In that case, you would definitely want to hold it in a tax-advantaged account. I disagree. Gold throws off no yield or interest. You can choose to realize gains strategically whenever you want. So even if it is taxed...
by pward
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?
Replies: 26
Views: 2323

Re: Do Buy & Hold Index Investors "need" people to actively invest?

As has been mentioned, for price discovery people do need to be able to purchase individual stocks. However, the one thing I've been theorizing on is the effects of index funds on liquidity and how that effects the price fluctuations of individual stocks. Index buy and hold investing removes liquidi...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

> It doesn't depend on personal goals. Leverage is mathematically inferior because it's a zero sum minus expenses game. It's the same problem Active management has. Sure, there will be SOME that will earn more returns than their costs of borrowing, but on average, they lose. Most of us bogleheads u...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

> Unlevered risk parity is better than levered risk parity, actually, from a risk-adjusted return perspective because leverage adds costs. It depends on the persons goals. One can increase return over and above the added costs. Your inclusion of using EDV was also a great way to increase volatility...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

Regarding the "All Seasons Portfolio" (the one Dalio gave to Robbins), I'm really looking forward to Ray Dalio's book "Economic and Investing Principles" which should be out within a year or so, and I'm hoping he either corrects the Robbins portfolio or sheds more light on why the Robbins portfolio...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

Regarding the "All Seasons Portfolio" (the one Dalio gave to Robbins), I'm really looking forward to Ray Dalio's book "Economic and Investing Principles" which should be out within a year or so, and I'm hoping he either corrects the Robbins portfolio or sheds more light on why the Robbins portfolio...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

Regarding the "All Seasons Portfolio" (the one Dalio gave to Robbins), I'm really looking forward to Ray Dalio's book "Economic and Investing Principles" which should be out within a year or so, and I'm hoping he either corrects the Robbins portfolio or sheds more light on why the Robbins portfolio...
by pward
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

"Best" is something that is subjective. There is no way to objectify what portfolio mix is best for each individual. Personally, I'm a big fan of Browne; him and Dalio have probably been the two biggest influences in my personal investment career. As in all things, it's managing risk vs return. Wha...
by pward
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

"Best" is something that is subjective. There is no way to objectify what portfolio mix is best for each individual. Personally, I'm a big fan of Browne; him and Dalio have probably been the two biggest influences in my personal investment career. As in all things, it's managing risk vs return. Wha...
by pward
Fri May 31, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of treasury bonds vs treasury money market
Replies: 42
Views: 5170

Re: Safety of treasury bonds vs treasury money market

I mean a fund always has some added counter party risk involved to owning bonds directly. I do not believe any new counter party is added when you buy a fund vs hold the bonds directly. In the unlikely event that a fund manager goes belly up, the fund's assets would still be safe. The fund itself b...
by pward
Fri May 31, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of treasury bonds vs treasury money market
Replies: 42
Views: 5170

Re: Safety of treasury bonds vs treasury money market

I mean a fund always has some added counter party risk involved to owning bonds directly.
by pward
Thu May 30, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?
Replies: 22
Views: 1978

Re: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?

I don't believe there's much argument that the dominant population trends in the world now (and for decades to come) are falling fertility rates, slowing population growth and population aging. Some research suggests that population aging may be inflationary at some point, but this is a distinctly ...
by pward
Thu May 30, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Also of note is that at lower or negative interest rates, the amount a bond will gain in a lowering of yields is not symmetric to the amount it will lose in an increase in yields; it returns substantially more in a lowering of rates than it would lose in a rising of rates. This depends on the type ...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question regarding the phrase "smart money"
Replies: 23
Views: 1738

Re: Question regarding the phrase "smart money"

Generally, the media refers to professional fund managers as "smart money" and retail investors as "dumb money". Though one look at active management's track record would really make one question the term "smart".
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Sure stocks tend to go up over time (though they don't have to i.e. Japan). But stocks have no correlation to inflation. Matter of fact, in a period of high inflation stocks may (but not always) go up in nominal terms but tend to lose value in real inflation adjusted terms. High inflation historica...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?
Replies: 22
Views: 1978

Re: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?

What IS different this time, is that inflation is more of a global phenomenon today, and central banks in nearly every major economy around the world are now focused on maintaining inflation at an explicit targeted rate. This is new and different from any previous macroeconomic period. Not to say t...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Eh, on the comment on stocks and inflation. Stocks have no correlation to inflation. While they have tended to outpace inflation on the longest timeframes, they have lost when accounting for inflation for over a decade in the past. Stocks do not innately have to outpace inflation. They just have te...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?
Replies: 22
Views: 1978

Re: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?

It's cyclical. Look back over last last few hundred years and you will see that over time we tend to cycle between periods of disinflationary pressures and periods of inflationary pressures. Considering we had a large scale deflation 10 years ago, and globally there are still a lot of disinflationar...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Robert_007 wrote: What you recommend investing in long bonds assuming your young and have at least 80 percent in equities? Just curious, I’ve been inclined to favor total bond market since we don’t know the future. If you're 80+% in equities and you're sure can stay the course long bonds are a grea...
by pward
Wed May 29, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

I think all of this talk and evidence about long bonds have finally convinced me to make my new treasuries long duration. Currently most of my treasuries are in a legacy TSP account in the G fund. I am not prepared to ditch the G fund atm but I will buy long term treasuries instead of the inter ter...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Garland whizzer, I’ve admired your thinking and perspective for a while now. I’m 34 and will be in the market for a long time obviously. What you recommend investing in long bonds assuming your young and have at least 80 percent in equities? Just curious, I’ve been inclined to favor total bond mark...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous
Replies: 37
Views: 4788

Re: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous

I think that for non-U.S. investors a case can be made to overweight their home country from world market weight. In general, we should be diversified, but we are also all inexorably tied to our local economies and currencies, and it makes no sense to go short our local economy and currency (an inte...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

Long duration bonds are much more sensitive to interest rate changes in either direction than are shorter duration bonds. If interest rates fall long duration does very well indeed in returns and you have the added factor that long duration provides a better expected diversification benefit to stoc...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7253

Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

We get a lot of discussion here about bonds in a low interest rate environment. A popular theme seems to be that "yields have nowhere to go but up" so bonds should be avoided or under-weighted. Tyler at PortfolioCharts just did a nice piece on explaining bond convexity. This shows that the longer da...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

I'm listening to a book on Audible titled "The Permanent Portfolio" by Harry Browne. In it, he goes through 11 hr of data and reasoning why a portfolio consisting of: 25% Total Market Index Fund 25% 25 - 30 yr US Treasury Bond Fund 25% Cash 25% Gold is the best portfolio mix compared to a 60/40 spl...
by pward
Tue May 28, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4743

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

"Best" is something that is subjective. There is no way to objectify what portfolio mix is best for each individual. Personally, I'm a big fan of Browne; him and Dalio have probably been the two biggest influences in my personal investment career. As in all things, it's managing risk vs return. What...
by pward
Mon May 27, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any one ever use paid subscriptions from Seeking Alpha ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1843

Re: Any one ever use paid subscriptions from Seeking Alpha ?

To be fair here... SA is mostly a distribution channel for independent authors and analysts. Each of those authors is analyzing things a different way. It's better to have a news platform provide arguments from all sides so their readers can actually hear all the arguments and form an educated opin...
by pward
Mon May 27, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any one ever use paid subscriptions from Seeking Alpha ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1843

Re: Any one ever use paid subscriptions from Seeking Alpha ?

I don't mind if they are positive or negative on a specific company. But if they can't even be consistent with one stock how are they going to help me with investment decisions? To be fair here... SA is mostly a distribution channel for independent authors and analysts. Each of those authors is ana...
by pward
Sat May 25, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG
Replies: 114
Views: 14261

Re: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG

Being someone working as an engineer at a FANG company I can tell you that your offer seems very fair, so I don't think there's much room for negotiations. The only thing that sticks out to me as unattractive is only 10 days of vacation (I get unlimited PTO and that's really nice...). I mean at the...
by pward
Thu May 23, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bond Vs Target date funds
Replies: 9
Views: 468

Re: Age in Bond Vs Target date funds

Target date funds are a bit too concentrated to stock volatility for my tastes and I am very skeptical that stocks can continue to go up at the rates they have since the early 80s ( of which everyone is assuming will continue infinitely into the future ). But everyone is different. Can you handle a...
by pward
Thu May 23, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bond Vs Target date funds
Replies: 9
Views: 468

Re: Age in Bond Vs Target date funds

Target date funds are a bit too concentrated to stock volatility for my tastes and I am very skeptical that stocks can continue to go up at the rates they have since the early 80s (of which everyone is assuming will continue infinitely into the future). But everyone is different. Can you handle a gu...
by pward
Sat May 11, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 71
Views: 7716

Re: Any conservative young investors?

1) find ways to reduce expenditures to save more. 2) find ways to increase income to save more. Yes, but only up to a point. Some of us are natural savers. We need to remember that it's also important to live the present and enjoy opportunities that money provides. We have to balance accumulation-t...
by pward
Sat May 11, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 71
Views: 7716

Re: Any conservative young investors?

I've done the math and realized that savings rate is the most important variable by far. This. For a young person, AA matters so much less than savings rate. As indexers and bogleheads we all, by definition have a "conservative" investment strategy. Not a lot of bitcoin and options trading around h...
by pward
Fri May 10, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 71
Views: 7716

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Yes. I'm in something very similar to a Golden Butterfly at 37 years old. I've done the math and realized that savings rate is the most important variable by far. 100% stock allocation on average would only get me to my goal a few short months earlier... and my portfolio is more consistent in the ra...
by pward
Wed May 08, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 6071

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

Just food for thought here, but is comparing PE, PB, (*insert whatever valuation metric here*), etc between countries apples to apples or apples to oranges? Are other countries cheaper in these metrics because they are undervalued, or because they deserve to be cheaper for one reason or another (ris...
by pward
Tue May 07, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is volatility good or bad?
Replies: 45
Views: 2608

Re: Is volatility good or bad?

Volatility is neither good nor bad without further context.
by pward
Fri May 03, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 7421

Re: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

Reminds me a lot of the "permanently high plateau" from right before the Great Depression started as well.
by pward
Fri May 03, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Riskfree 3.00% Yield?!
Replies: 33
Views: 6480

Re: Riskfree 3.00% Yield?!

A muni, especially one for New York which is having a lot of financial difficulties at the moment, is hardly risk free...
by pward
Thu May 02, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 2831

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

1) You're debating opinion vs fact. To be fully diversified one does need to have at least one asset that is in a bull market and at least one in a bear market at all times. This is fact. That's news to me... I believe you get facts from a place unknown to the rest of us This is really simple and o...
by pward
Thu May 02, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 2831

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

It's already been said, but a stock stock/bond only proponent (basically, the generic boglehead viewpoint) would have to disagree with this statement, since it is quite common for both asset classes to be positive at the same time. Again, as already said, only endowment type portfolios that add sev...
by pward
Thu May 02, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 2831

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

It's already been said, but a stock stock/bond only proponent (basically, the generic boglehead viewpoint) would have to disagree with this statement, since it is quite common for both asset classes to be positive at the same time. Again, as already said, only endowment type portfolios that add sev...
by pward
Thu May 02, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 2831

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

I think this is an absolute truth. The only way to be fully diversified is to have at least one asset class that will be in a bull market at all times. What asset class was going up during the great recession? Maybe treasuries? Cash? My bond funds and stocks funds were down. Real estate was down. L...