Search found 21 matches

by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

Also note that THIS bull market (although fairly long in the tooth) has only grown 300% so far... The last big bull market from 1982-2000 grew 1000% before the 2000 crash. There's no rule that says it can't keep going up. There are a lot of fantastic comments and criticisms and some objections I th...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

I am considering all these things carefully. And I don’t think I am a genius, I think I am a coward afraid to drop a million in equities. The other 700k of my winnings I was going to split between bonds and a CD ladder. So you have $1.7 million to invest, and you’re considering $1 million in equiti...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

Plenty of people believe this bull market didn't start until 2013 when it matched previous highs, and as noted we've had several corrections of around 20 percent during this period. You can quibble on intraday or close-of-day, which index you're using, etc., but in general 20 percent is an arbitrar...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

10% annual return in non-bear market years is not "very optimistic". It is very pessimistic. The average is more like 20%. The overall average return is 10% but that's including corrections and bear markets. And because returns are geometric, you need more than one year of 20% returns to make up fo...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

There is a lot of overwhelming research showing how market timing and security selection do not work. Asset allocation has the most impact. Perhaps I am incorrect, but that research shows you that statistically speaking, i.e. in the vast majority of cases it is a doomed proposition to try and time ...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

OP, The problem with your assumption, and most ill thought out market timing threads on this website, is that a market crash is relative. Take this hypothetical scenario. SP500 is 2840 today. 2 years from now it is trading at 5000. In year 3 it crashes to 3500. You’ve sat out the market the whole t...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

10% annual return in non-bear market years is not "very optimistic". It is very pessimistic. The average is more like 20%. The overall average return is 10% but that's including corrections and bear markets. And because returns are geometric, you need more than one year of 20% returns to make up fo...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Re: Why is market timing bad in this case?

What if the market drops 10% what do you do? How about 19.9%? 19% How about 50%, market continues to slide, banking system feels like it is ready to fail, continues to drop, etc? The problem in all these cases is indecision and failure to time it correctly and instead you stay uninvested and miss t...
by Adonis
Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is market timing bad in this case?
Replies: 52
Views: 3221

Why is market timing bad in this case?

You always hear time in market beats timing the market, and that is probably right for the most part, but when I consider the following scenario, it is hard not to justify some market timing, so I present this up for criticism since I must clearly be missing something. Suppose we have a young 25 yea...
by Adonis
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 8445

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

Thanks for the reply siamond and the wealth of information you provided. I did have a look at the follow up, but it included a pension. I suppose I could just subtract it from the graph. Also, any chance you still have the table data that you could share? I didn't keep the spreadsheet readily avail...
by Adonis
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 8445

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

what I would like to know is what would a 60/40 and a 80/20 portfolio look like in a Japanese scenario with the following assumptions (I’d be just as curious to see how other AAs look, but I think these are likely the two most common ones). The portfolio is 1,000,000$ right before the crash, i.e. o...
by Adonis
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 8445

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

I couldn’t find an answer to my question from the short study article or on the forums, so I thought I’d revive the thread in hopes someone can help me find the answer or at the least go about figuring it out. A little context as way of an explanation. I have been reading increasingly of fears that ...
by Adonis
Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 893
Views: 296148

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I'm not sure if this has come up before, but has there been any consideration of plotting a few of the major AA's against each other in the withdrawal statistics for every year chart on the backtesting sheet? Or perhaps including an additional chart underneath making the comparison? I think it would...
by Adonis
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

I remain amazed by how often variable portfolio withdrawal gets misrepresented. I do not recall seeing anywhere where one's personal real estate is included in VPW for purposes of calculations. I recommend reading the wiki link on the subject: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=bogleheads.org...
by Adonis
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

I prefer to keep the house out of the equation and hold it to use as insurance for long term care. If, at age 80, I need to enter a nursing home for 15 years or start a long battle with an expensive health issue, I will sell the house to cover the cost. By your method, I would be spending at a high...
by Adonis
Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

Now, my house is worth 300,000$. If I sold it and put the proceeds in the exact same portfolio, then the VPW spread sheet tells me I can withdraw 48,000$, as my portfolio is now 1,000,000$. The discrepancy is 14.4% of my assets. [...] In short I'm asking if there is a way to add disposable assets i...
by Adonis
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

If my maintenance costs and property taxes are currently 20,000$, then that is plenty enough to rent. Why does selling one's home imply you now need to live in a 34,500$ rental apartment unit? Why can't one just downsize and use the same allocated budget towards housing? Do you mean downsizing now ...
by Adonis
Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

I think another way of acheiving the goal perhaps, would be to used a second VPW, where one places all those assets in the bond section and leaves stocks at 0. Then change the bond parameter to 0.3% to more accurately represent housing returns historically. As the primary portfolio drains down, at s...
by Adonis
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

I don't understand your point. Suppose my portfolio is 700,000$, I'm aged 50, with a 80/20 stocks to bonds allocation. The VPW sheet I am looking at says I can withdraw 33,600$. That will cover my living expenses, including property taxes and house maintenance or alternatively a rented apartment, a...
by Adonis
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

Re: VPW Calculation Question

Why are you including the house you live in. If you sell it, then the returns from the investment of it will need to be used to pay for rent, it's not like it is somehow extra money for you to live off. I don't understand your point. Suppose my portfolio is 700,000$, I'm aged 50, with a 80/20 stock...
by Adonis
Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VPW Calculation Question
Replies: 16
Views: 1228

VPW Calculation Question

Hi, I'm trying to use the VPW to calculate how much my recommended withdrawal is, however I'm running into the following issue. My portfolio has a value of X. My house (paid in full with no mortgage on it) has a value of Y. I'd rather not sell the house for now and rent. So, if I only input X into t...