Search found 993 matches

by FredPeterson
Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffett
Replies: 48
Views: 8168

Re: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffe

You say "if it weren't for the insurance businesses, he wouldn't be NEARLY as successful." That statement makes no sense. The insurance businesses are part and parcel of his successful business model. Berkshire Hathaway would be a different company without it's insurance businesses. Insur...
by FredPeterson
Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffett
Replies: 48
Views: 8168

Re: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffe

Why does it seem most articles about Buffett being a great investor somehow overlook the fact that if it weren't for the insurance businesses, he wouldn't be NEARLY as successful. I don't mean the insurance businesses influenced his decisions (although to be fair, they have, immensely, since he kno...
by FredPeterson
Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffett
Replies: 48
Views: 8168

Re: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffe

Why does it seem most articles about Buffett being a great investor somehow overlook the fact that if it weren't for the insurance businesses, he wouldn't be NEARLY as successful. I don't mean the insurance businesses influenced his decisions (although to be fair, they have, immensely, since he know...
by FredPeterson
Tue Jun 25, 2013 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Morningstar's chart so different from Yahoo's?
Replies: 12
Views: 2323

Re: Why is Morningstar's chart so different from Yahoo's?

The FIS chart on Morningstar does not contain the $16.80 "dividend" that Yahoo shows on July 3rd 2008. This was a spinoff event of Lender Processing Services m Morningstars graph is "wrong" because it does not take this into account. But I think what is also happening is it inclu...
by FredPeterson
Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: uh oh...homes becoming bank accounts again
Replies: 25
Views: 3446

Re: uh oh...homes becoming bank accounts again

Someone I know just borrowed $30k against his house for his daughter's wedding. This guy makes a great income too. In addition to just being a dumb thing to do period, it indicates to me he doesn't have $30k in savings. Why? He lives beyond his means. Apple just put out bonds for a few billion. Thi...
by FredPeterson
Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "really bad hour" at about 1:10pm today?
Replies: 34
Views: 4060

Re: "really bad hour" at about 1:10pm today?

There are some things you cannot control. But here, I think it's a terrific reminder that if you're placing an order to buy an ETF, you'd probably be better served by placing a limit order and avoiding "market price" altogether. Artsdoctor Indeed, these types of events make me no more fea...
by FredPeterson
Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2137

Re: Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?

902 reads and not even 1/9th votes. Very odd. Anyway. The psychology behind it being a living expense vs lifestyle fund is just that. Psychological. If you really were without income for 8 months and had to drop everything social that kept you sane, personally I would get depressed and withdrawn. It...
by FredPeterson
Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2137

Re: Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?

I mean if your source of income is lost - not that you have a sudden unplanned expense. That would be a true 'emergency' and as such is not even possible to quantify how big it should be. 'Emergency' isn't the right term in this case. So let me clarify: Loss of personal income and assuming no unplan...
by FredPeterson
Mon Mar 04, 2013 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2137

Emergency Fund - Lifestyle fund or living expense fund?

Just a curiosity poll to see where people are at. I'm going to guess it will weigh heavily in favor of lifestyle in one of the categories. This is also of course geared towards people who have a normally taxable income (you're not retired). Okay so what do I mean? Your emergency fund, how would you ...
by FredPeterson
Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does the SEC publish a list of securities approved for short
Replies: 3
Views: 244

Re: does the SEC publish a lsit of securities approved for s

by the way when i short am i selling security that nobody owns? also, if i establish a position in a stock am i shorting if i sell the security for my account Please don't consider short selling unless you really know what you're doing. With that said.... All stock that exists is owned by someone. ...
by FredPeterson
Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 7705

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

Some people are getting excited/nervous over the fact that the Dow is approaching the all-time high it reached six years ago ? Yes excited because its safe to invest, gotta get in on those gains! The same missing out as the dotcom, albeit not the same level. Nervous because many still see the econo...
by FredPeterson
Mon Jan 21, 2013 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers are dead men walking, they just don't know it
Replies: 60
Views: 7256

Re: Brokers are dead men walking, they just don't know it

With 84% of the money still in non-index fund investments, it looks like the broker model of investing still has a few more miles to go before it falls over. Rather amazing when you think about it. Keep plugging along and spreading the word, Mr. Swedroe. You're doing good work. I think an appropria...
by FredPeterson
Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1,812% Gain in the next 219 Days
Replies: 18
Views: 3456

Re: 1,812% Gain in the next 219 Days

What was the ticker so we can follow it, or did you have to ship mobnies first?
by FredPeterson
Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Replies: 151
Views: 19317

Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

No Idea What I'm Doing

Long
BAC
LNG

Short
HLF
JCP
by FredPeterson
Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to fall
Replies: 178
Views: 18006

Re: Gold continues to fall

Having witnessed the silver boom and bust in the early 1980s, I just can't see buying gold. Know how to make a small fortune in silver? Start with a large fortune. The Hunt brothers of Dallas lost 90% or more of their wealth due to their greed. "If a Texan thinks that there's a chance, chances...
by FredPeterson
Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to be right
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Re: It's not enough to be right

He wasn't right. William Miller and his followers bet their worldly possessions on the proposition that the Second Coming would occur on October 22, 1844. They were wrong. They would still have been wrong if the world had ended on May 21, 2011. They will still be wrong if the world ends on December...
by FredPeterson
Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold finally stalling out?
Replies: 105
Views: 5710

Re: Is gold finally stalling out?

Is AAPL finally stalling out? I couldn't help but notice it peaked in September at 705. It dipped to about 527 and has been limping along ever since. Stay the course. This is not getting near the love it should. The people who start gold threads are almost always going to be bashing it either direc...
by FredPeterson
Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automatic DRIP effectiveness
Replies: 4
Views: 429

Re: Automatic DRIP effectiveness

Havn't other studies shown that doing an actual DRIP vs a lump sum of the dividend every year makes little difference in the long run unless the reinvestment occurs at a high?

In other words, I think you're better off just letting it do its thing rather then fiddle with it yourself every month.
by FredPeterson
Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lottery fever: cash or annuity?
Replies: 45
Views: 3973

Re: Lottery fever: cash or annuity?

The lump sum after taxes was $220,176,500. If you wanted to give yourself an annuity after taking the lump sum that would be $7.3m tax free every year for 30 years. Why would annuity payments be tax free? I highlighted why. The lump sum was ~$350 before taxes and its $220 after taxes. The use of th...
by FredPeterson
Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lottery fever: cash or annuity?
Replies: 45
Views: 3973

Re: Lottery fever: cash or annuity?

I've always been a lump sum'er, but when the numbers for the annuity are SO big - it comes down to trusting whether the annuity would actually be able to pay out all 30 years. The powerball website had it all laid out for each state. For Wisconsin the annuity was $5,995,371 the first year, increasin...
by FredPeterson
Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are Highly Skilled Investors
Replies: 54
Views: 7781

Re: Bogleheads are Highly Skilled Investors

I know how to play football. I know how to play every position. But theres just no way I could compete at high High School or college or professional levels, therefore I do the sensible thing and play Madden NFL on my favorite console game system. I pretend like I'm making a lot of decisions and put...
by FredPeterson
Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GLD gold etf is doomed to fail?
Replies: 47
Views: 5082

Re: GLD gold etf is doomed to fail?

Why do I feel like your logic implies the share price goes nowhere or down and doesn't even consider up?
by FredPeterson
Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is asking about individual stocks frowned upon?
Replies: 37
Views: 3158

Re: Is asking about individual stocks frowned upon?

Eighty percent of all trades are done by professionals and this is all they do. When you buy, you are buying from someone who is selling, so chances are you will be trading with a professional. Why is he selling? *grunch* I think the rise of HFT makes this not a valid argument. HFT is about providi...
by FredPeterson
Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CPI inflation rate vs. personal inflation rate??
Replies: 20
Views: 1211

Re: CPI inflation rate vs. personal inflation rate??

They should come out with a couple calculations - one that is useful to people who need to survive and another for the people who have money to spend.
by FredPeterson
Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead way to take on more risk than 100% equities?
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

Re: Boglehead way to take on more risk than 100% equities?

If "the Boglehead way" allows for the use of leverage, theres your answer.
by FredPeterson
Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I got sideswiped today by co-workers on this subject
Replies: 58
Views: 6822

Re: I got sideswiped today by co-workers on this subject

Please share where you can guarantee me 15% stock market returns for the next X years, the years I have left on my mortgage.

Both you and your co-workers are using extreme recency bias in your decision to believe you are more right then the other.
by FredPeterson
Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baby Boomer Sell Off???
Replies: 16
Views: 1938

Re: Baby Boomer Sell Off???

In the stock and bond world, someone has to own it. In other words, no thing such as "supply" in the stock world. Its a 1:1 ratio. You can't sell stock and it just "sits" in the void. Where'd the money come from that you got for it? it doesn't "sit in the void", but th...
by FredPeterson
Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baby Boomer Sell Off???
Replies: 16
Views: 1938

Re: Baby Boomer Sell Off???

In the stock and bond world, someone has to own it. In other words, no thing such as "supply" in the stock world. Its a 1:1 ratio. You can't sell stock and it just "sits" in the void. Where'd the money come from that you got for it? Unless there is another major panic in the next...
by FredPeterson
Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett May Be Turning Bearish on Munis.
Replies: 6
Views: 2608

Re: Buffett May Be Turning Bearish on Munis.

When a perma-bull who built his conglomerate off the back of insurance, sells the insurance he sold...its likely because he believes he'll have to pay up sometime in the near future.

Since Buffett doesn't short, thats about as bearish a sentinment as you can get from someone like him.
by FredPeterson
Fri Aug 17, 2012 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how often do you check your portfolio?
Replies: 94
Views: 9141

Re: how often do you check your portfolio?

I check mine daily. But unlike the masses that check daily, I don't feel the need to fiddle. I'm 100% comfortable with everything I own as it sits right now. The only thing I'm considering moving on recently is SIRI - but those 1000 shares bought at 6.5c are still sitting on free money right now, so...
by FredPeterson
Fri Aug 17, 2012 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: facebook's first lock up expires today,
Replies: 63
Views: 12089

Re: facebook's first lock up expires today,

This is indeed true and I use the infinity term a lot. I am unaware though of a stock that has gone to infinity. Basically a short can determine when he/she would close the position if the stock goes up just like a long would decide when the close a position if the stock goes down. I suspect the sh...
by FredPeterson
Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: facebook's first lock up expires today,
Replies: 63
Views: 12089

Re: facebook's first lock up expires today,

As expected, it has dropped pretty good. Why didn't everyone just short then? Could have been 5-6% richer in a day! (Edit: Actually kinda serious because I'm not familiar with how selling short actually works. Or is it as simple as putting in a short sell order.. and putting in a buy later?) Becaus...
by FredPeterson
Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: facebook's first lock up expires today,
Replies: 63
Views: 12089

Re: facebook's first lock up expires today,

As expected, it has dropped pretty good.
by FredPeterson
Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer At It Again
Replies: 37
Views: 4491

Re: Cramer At It Again

After Cramer called Lenny Dykstra (now bankrupt and in jail) one of the great ones in the business, I don't know why anybody would listen to what he says. Let alone invest money on it. Because he gets a good reputation for calling his guests idiotic slow brained morons who are luck-boxing because t...
by FredPeterson
Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College Bubble Popping
Replies: 72
Views: 6826

Re: College Bubble Popping

Colleges aren't a waste of money and they aren't failing our kids. Whats happening is a bell curve in the need for a lot of highly educated people. As automation grew, so did the need for newer and higher educated people to build these new things and understand them, there were also a lot of people ...
by FredPeterson
Tue Aug 07, 2012 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Candlestick graphs
Replies: 2
Views: 453

Re: Candlestick graphs

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/Candle_definition_en.svg/240px-Candle_definition_en.svg.png You aren't going to be able to tell whether any kind of pattern is related to a pension fund, an institution or some very large individual mover or just some other activity. The cand...
by FredPeterson
Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?
Replies: 20
Views: 2264

Re: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?

The argument here is nonsensical. How does ETF turn investor into day traders? It's the person's mentality that turn them into day traders, not the product. Because while an investor wants to bet on say, solar, they don't trust themselves picking stocks so now they can turn to a sector ETF to get t...
by FredPeterson
Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?
Replies: 20
Views: 2264

Re: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?

If someone is trying to day trade with a mere $2500 then they deserve to lose out.
by FredPeterson
Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?
Replies: 20
Views: 2264

Re: Are ETFs turning investors into day traders?

What do you consider "very high" leverage? When I was dinking around in late 2008 and 2009 TDA gave me something like 3.5x assets. More than enough to turn a paltry 1% or even .5% into a decent one days wage. It ended up being the triple leveraged ETF's FAS and FAZ that convinced me to cut...
by FredPeterson
Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Buffett know something you don't?
Replies: 25
Views: 4123

Re: Does Buffett know something you don't?

As of a few weeks ago, BRK.A and VTSMX had similar 10-year returns. I think Buffet's main advantages lie in his ability to structure deals that ordinary guys cannot. VTSMX is priced at net asset value at the end of every day. BRK isn't. At any point in time, BRK's stock price may be overvalued, fai...
by FredPeterson
Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard asks, "ETFs: Still the bargain they used to be?"
Replies: 25
Views: 3010

Re: Vanguard asks, "ETFs: Still the bargain they used to be?

Article title is disingenuous and eye-catchy - no different then a headline out of CNBC that goes for clicks.

But I guess thats what it takes....
by FredPeterson
Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain "New Money" Premiums
Replies: 19
Views: 1415

Re: Explain "New Money" Premiums

The banks want a higher AUM but not have to pay for it.
by FredPeterson
Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 6,000 without the Fed
Replies: 16
Views: 2708

Re: Dow 6,000 without the Fed

Jack wrote:
RenoJay wrote:If this effect is real, it is surprising that more traders haven't recognized it and arbitraged it away, but it should quickly disappear now that it is out in the open.


It will only be arbitraged away if the retail lemming investor clues in or goes away. That won't happen anytime soon.
by FredPeterson
Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 6,000 without the Fed
Replies: 16
Views: 2708

Re: Dow 6,000 without the Fed

CaliJim wrote:The report is data mining at its best.


Yah because they're sure cherry picking dates out of the total blue

:confused

Also this was already brought up viewtopic.php?f=10&t=99344
by FredPeterson
Thu Jul 12, 2012 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements

So instead of removing the day that actually has made the biggest difference (the positive days), you want to remove the days that are what is likely the biggest negative response? The fact the include and exclude graphs are nearly identical otherwise, just shifted down starting in the 90's, should ...
by FredPeterson
Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements

The data needs to be teased a bit more. I would like to see two 3 day charts; one chart for the days when the market was up at the end of the day after the FOMC report - and one chart for the days when the market was down at the end of the day after the FOMC report. There is no doubt that some inve...
by FredPeterson
Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: 80% of equity premium in 24 hours pre FOMC announcements

Beat me to it! Of course, I was going to provide a link to the m article on it as oooo its much more conspiracy ladden. This is quite an interesting "data mine". Take away the consistently known 24 hour period ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee announcements and the gains in the st...
by FredPeterson
Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in REIT reflect leverage benefits?
Replies: 5
Views: 593

Re: Does investing in REIT reflect leverage benefits?

Unless there is a corresponding or higher increase in wages, inflation isn't going to change anything because people still won't be able to buy a house because it, along with everything else, will simply cost more. No one is holding off buying because housing prices aren't higher...that makes no sen...