Search found 184 matches

by Pu239
Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can we know whether the market's overvalued?
Replies: 53
Views: 3742

Re: How can we know whether the market's overvalued?

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:21 am


Actually, the Mr Fusion isn’t required. But it is more environmentally responsible than sourcing plutonium.
Pu239 specifically...my specialty.
by Pu239
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

index2max wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:10 pm
The only things out there that aren't as overvalued are.. precious metals.
The point of this thread is how does one know that? Gold doesn't look especially cheap to me right now, nor does palladium and especially rhodium (platinum perhaps). But these are just personal SWAGs. Why buy more?
by Pu239
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.
Replies: 162
Views: 13018

Re: Realized we made a major mistake and feeling really sick.

My wife recently made us sit down and calculate what our old company stock options would be worth had we never sold any over the years and held them up until now. We had been consistently selling over many years at a regular schedule. In total we have made roughly 850k before taxes on these options...
by Pu239
Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

grayfox wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:43 am

After they discovered Gold in California in 1849,
Actually 1848 with the main rush beginning in 1849. Those earliest seekers did all right.
by Pu239
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

If someone wants a gold standard, inherent in that is that the number of, for example, dollars must be fixed for a certain weight of gold. That correct? If so, it would seem that they are ceding the value of their gold to the government. Is that what they really want? Yes, gold must be fixed. I don...
by Pu239
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

When the market behaves rationally and predictably, I'll do the same. :happy For gold, that's possibly never. That's slightly less true for other options. Individual nominal Treasuries are predictable if held to maturity, although you don't know if you beat inflation or not. For liability matching,...
by Pu239
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

I'm not understanding what that has to do with wishing the world had a gold-backed currency or gold-backed bond. The thread is about price not the gold standard or bonds. Trying to stay on track. Then I'm still confused. Because it sounds like you're saying: 1. price is unknowable, buy it for insur...
by Pu239
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:46 am

I'm not understanding what that has to do with wishing the world had a gold-backed currency or gold-backed bond.
The thread is about price not the gold standard or bonds. Trying to stay on track.
by Pu239
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

CAPE specifically doesn't care about the risk free interest rate. Black Scholes model definitely works with r=0. Risk is usually measured by volatility which has nothing to do with risk free interest rate. Not sure why you think it's impossible to measure risk and that you could only gamble. The wo...
by Pu239
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Calculate the energy costs -- pretty prohibitive and not related to state of technological advancement unless energy becomes virtually free. In that case, life is easy anyway (says the geophysicist ;-) We were assuming 1,000 years from now, when we'll have fusion reactors or miniature black hole pa...
by Pu239
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

CAPE specifically doesn't care about the risk free interest rate. Black Scholes model definitely works with r=0. Risk is usually measured by volatility which has nothing to do with risk free interest rate. Not sure why you think it's impossible to measure risk and that you could only gamble. The wo...
by Pu239
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

over45 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:44 pm
Gold bugs, like all ideologs, prefer the latter. They like the world as it was in 1900, or even better, 190.
Goldbugs have a point in that no fiat currency has ever survived.
Obviously because the models were wrong.
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:05 am
JP Morgan forecast for gold over next 10 years:

3% per year
Well, there's your modeling result. Time to buy some gold!
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

You can tell something is not right when every coin dealer in my local area listed on the treasury website as an authorized dealer say that they have none to sell. In some sense, there is no liquidity and we need the fed to dump a few gold coins at each such dealer. :) Dealer stock would exist if t...
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Change because I stopped believing that investing in commodities was a good idea. Yes, many fled commodities at around the same time. But gold is a "special" commodity over the history of human civilization, is it not? Commodity pricing models exist and are applied to precious metals (per googling)...
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

danielc wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:26 am

Let's see if we can convince watchnerd's wife to hide more gold coins in the backyard and we can all go to watchnerd's home and have a metal detector party. :wink:
I'm in if she starts burying antique gold watches though I presume watchnerd would have a greater interest in finding those.
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

danielc wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:01 am


There's over $1,000 literally buried in your backyard and you don't know where they are? That's one expensive treasure hunt.
A thousand here, a thousand there...at some point, it becomes something worth looking for. It's only gold after all.
by Pu239
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

The gold I had a decade ago was never physical, it was the GLD ETF. And I already have a metal detector...that's how I found the first 2 coins. ;) Does your revised IPS require that the price of investments be modelable? After a decade of being out of gold, you seem to be looking for a rationale to...
by Pu239
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

As I recall from previous posts, you once owned gold but sold it, so you should have some experience with holding and selling it. Why the "from what I've heard" attitude? I've never sold physical gold in my life. My wife bought me 5 x 1/4 oz gold coins and buried them in our back wilderness for me ...
by Pu239
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

So back to the benefits of gold. If you hold it physically and it's within arm's reach, you can be confident it will be there when you want it without any middlemen. That's one thing I like about it. But if I want to spend it, I have to use middlemen to convert it to money. And from what I've heard...
by Pu239
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ready to Meet with Estate Planning Attorney
Replies: 3
Views: 773

Re: Ready to Meet with Estate Planning Attorney

Perhaps these proposed regs by the IRS regarding large gifts will prove helpful:
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/treasury-i ... after-2025
by Pu239
Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 11908

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:48 pm


Gold does not compound.
Au2Cl6, Au2(SO4)2, etc. :happy
by Pu239
Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting
Replies: 24
Views: 1052

Re: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting

This is what makes me wonder - if there is any reporting that the gold buying businesses like Kitco are required to do? It's an interesting area that does seem more like the honor system than other transactions. Technically, we have a voluntary taxation system as explained here by Intuit. https://t...
by Pu239
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting
Replies: 24
Views: 1052

Re: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting

OP - A good summary of IRS reporting rules can be found in this Zacks link: https://finance.zacks.com/irs-reporting-rules-sale-gold-coins-8556.html When seeking out a local coin dealer for a quote, prefer those who are a member of the Professional Numismatics Guild (PNG) all of whom must adhere to a...
by Pu239
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: After almost 30 years I need a replacement. Where is the best place to get business news on the net that you can watch?
Replies: 58
Views: 6432

Re: After almost 30 years I need a replacement. Where is the best place to get business news on the net that you can wa

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:13 pm
iamblessed wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:46 pm
I need a good news to replace the NBR news.
The Wall Street Journal is delivered to the house each day. I long realized that is all I need or enjoy. I have more time as I have tuned the rest out.
Not free, unfortunately. I gave up home delivery when it topped $400/yr.
by Pu239
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why all the angst about RMDs and taxes?
Replies: 177
Views: 12313

Re: Why all the angst about RMDs and taxes?

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:00 pm
If my RMDs push me into a higher bracket, that just means I'm rich rich rich.

I will pay the taxes with a smile.
Exactly. No angst about RMDs or taxes here. I'm fortunate to live in such a country.
by Pu239
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prefer spending money on investing rather than "things"? Is this weird?
Replies: 37
Views: 2614

Re: Prefer spending money on investing rather than "things"? Is this weird?

Financially secure odd duck is far more satisfying than financially insecure cooked goose.
by Pu239
Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting business with possible EPA issues
Replies: 13
Views: 898

Re: Inheriting business with possible EPA issues

Have an engineering firm do a phase 1 and phase 2 environmental assessment to see what your actual problems might be. Your state might have some sort of brownfield clean-up programs. Automotive and dry cleaning contamination are very common and there’s a path to redevelopment. Don’t assume the EPA ...
by Pu239
Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Precious Metals Inheritance
Replies: 4
Views: 557

Re: Precious Metals Inheritance

I agree with student that holding depends on new worth but it's not a huge amount and putting in a safe deposit box makes sense. Although safe deposit boxes aren't perfectly safe (according to the link you've provided), I wouldn't bother insuring it. You would need an appraisal and the chance of a b...
by Pu239
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we getting spoiled by the long bull market?
Replies: 108
Views: 8615

Re: Are we getting spoiled by the long bull market?

Re: Gold My wife said at lunch today we should consider "getting some gold while its cheap". I asked her how much. She said 10%. She's not a gold bug and we haven't owned gold since when commodities were fashionable 15 years ago. So there is something in the air / water. Gold is cheap at $1500/oz? ...
by Pu239
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 8 years from retiring at 70
Replies: 24
Views: 2880

Re: 8 years from retiring at 70

OP - You don't know enough about their finances to make any recommendations. They already may have stocks in IRAs or husband's TSP. Is the husband covered by FERS or the older and better CRS pension system? With SS for both and husband's pension, all adjusted annually for inflation, and no debt, the...
by Pu239
Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just answered telephone political poll. Now concerned.
Replies: 62
Views: 11618

Re: Just answered telephone political poll. Now concerned.

Something to consider Ed- more often then not I'd venture to guess, the guy/gal calling is just trying to make a living. Obviously, reasonable security precautions should be taken and you don't have to interview, but there's no need to browbeat the guy calling you. But the information you give them...
by Pu239
Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taking Social Security at 62 and Investing It
Replies: 54
Views: 4429

Re: Taking Social Security at 62 and Investing It

OP - Will you be financially secure if your wife dies first, say sometime after taking SS at 62 and within the same time period you have assumed for yourself? She is the greater wage earner. Your financial plan should work both ways.
by Pu239
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical Silver VS SLV
Replies: 15
Views: 1221

Re: Physical Silver VS SLV

SLV holds physical silver in it's vaults so I'm not sure what advantage holding physical silver with an investment firm offers as costs are likely higher with a smaller outfit. Who is watching how the investment firm conducts business? If interested in actual physical silver, I'd rather hold it mys...
by Pu239
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?
Replies: 158
Views: 12741

Re: Retiring at 24 - Extreme FIRE is it possible?

FIREing on a low income reminds me of an Andrew Tobias quote, "It's just as easy to live well when you're poor as when you're rich - but when you're poor, it's much cheaper." I suppose it could be done but I wouldn't want to try. These types of stories have "...and they lived happily ever after" exp...
by Pu239
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical Silver VS SLV
Replies: 15
Views: 1221

Re: Physical Silver VS SLV

SLV holds physical silver in it's vaults so I'm not sure what advantage holding physical silver with an investment firm offers as costs are likely higher with a smaller outfit. Who is watching how the investment firm conducts business? If interested in actual physical silver, I'd rather hold it myse...
by Pu239
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate or gold as inflation hedge?
Replies: 12
Views: 1052

Re: Real estate or gold as inflation hedge?

Diversify and do both.
by Pu239
Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world
Replies: 38
Views: 3192

Re: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world

According to Fernado M. Martin's " A Short History of Prices, Inflation since the Founding of the U.S." https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/a-short-history-of-prices-inflation-since-founding-of-us#fig1 , the investing environment has improved with fiat mone...
by Pu239
Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I passed on making $3
Replies: 42
Views: 4759

Re: I passed on making $3

Our city doesn't charge a cc fee for property tax payments so that's what I do, making about $110. I too would pass for a few $ but it's a perfect expense for a new cc rewards bonus.
by Pu239
Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.
Replies: 192
Views: 20501

Re: "The Wealthy Renter" by Alex Avery.

The book was written for Canadians and the Canadian housing market. I'd be interested in US applicability from someone who's read the book.
by Pu239
Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ article about commodities- anyone adding?
Replies: 40
Views: 3429

Re: WSJ article about commodities- anyone adding?

I just shrugged it off, having been inoculated by Andrew Tobias back in the 1980s with the simple remark It is a fact that 90% of all people who play the commodities game get burned. I submit that you have now read all you ever need to read about commodities. (He was referring to actual commodities...
by Pu239
Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 131
Views: 10621

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

I appreciate your politeness and reasonable exploration of the issue. First of all, you cannot say your cash back "reward" came solely from what credit card companies charge merchants, because it didn't. It also was derived from interest charged on revolving balances. From the Investopedia entry on...
by Pu239
Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 131
Views: 10621

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

With regard to being paid for spending money using cc's, I'm being paid because I take on additional risk using this payment method. I disagree. This isn't an investment. Being paid in this situation is an incentive, a marketing expense, not a risk premium. I view it differently. The higher interes...
by Pu239
Sat Nov 23, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 131
Views: 10621

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

Have you considered in your calculus that the credit card companies are getting smarter and smarter all the time, using data that you and others are giving them, and will eventually devise a trap that will catch even you? I'm not trying to be quarrelsome, or put you specifically on the spot. I am w...
by Pu239
Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 131
Views: 10621

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

Have you considered in your calculus that the credit card companies are getting smarter and smarter all the time, using data that you and others are giving them, and will eventually devise a trap that will catch even you? I'm not trying to be quarrelsome, or put you specifically on the spot. I am w...
by Pu239
Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet says NOT to diversify?
Replies: 37
Views: 5090

Re: Warren Buffet says NOT to diversify?

Most people are already poorly diversified with one job and one house. Low diversification means higher risk. I'm not as smart as Warren so I'll stick with a broad diversification strategy with the investment portion of my net worth.
by Pu239
Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plug-in Hybrid Federal Tax Credit
Replies: 20
Views: 1592

Re: Plug-in Hybrid Federal Tax Credit

Thanks to all for confirming that. I have enough taxes and in fact was going to end up paying more estimated taxes 4th quarter like the other three before, but this might just help me reduce that payment or even completely forgo. There is even a Toyota cash rebate of $2K on the car, can you believe...
by Pu239
Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More retirees have a mortgage
Replies: 134
Views: 10651

Re: More retirees have a mortgage

You don't care, because it is your forever home... That is, until you have a stroke and the stress causes your mate to have a MI. You need to sell to buy a place near one of the kids, because you both need help. You are now down 40% because of "sequence of risk". How does this turn out any better i...
by Pu239
Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plug-in Hybrid Federal Tax Credit
Replies: 20
Views: 1592

Re: Plug-in Hybrid Federal Tax Credit

Thanks to all for confirming that. I have enough taxes and in fact was going to end up paying more estimated taxes 4th quarter like the other three before, but this might just help me reduce that payment or even completely forgo. There is even a Toyota cash rebate of $2K on the car, can you believe...
by Pu239
Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More retirees have a mortgage
Replies: 134
Views: 10651

Re: More retirees have a mortgage

Although unstated in the article, more retirees today probably have reverse mortgages than in 1990. The nearing retirement age seniors I know don't have the money to pay off the mortgage and some say they won't be able to retire. After 30+ years of paying on a mortgage, we said "enough" and recently...