Search found 325 matches

by Barsoom
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

FYI to users of the Monte Carlo variant... I overhauled the data used by the Monte Carlo variant. I wasn't comfortable with the data generation scheme that I was using, and I think I've come up with a much better way to generate future scenarios. Download link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/kgcu7rexv8cn...
by Barsoom
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice
Replies: 46
Views: 3876

Re: Career advice

It's possible that you're being put on a probationary performance plan, and the 2nd level manager is there as a witness. In many places, one cannot be terminated directly; they have to be put on a monitored performance plan first. If the person fails to meet to goals of the performance plan (which i...
by Barsoom
Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extending concrete patio in sloped yard creating a large drop-off
Replies: 16
Views: 942

Re: Extending concrete patio in sloped yard creating a large drop-off

Put up a trellis behind the patio and grow ivy on it.

Or, buy an artificial trellis and put it up behind the patio to create a plant-looking wall.

-B
by Barsoom
Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Simple Baseball Question, Maybe
Replies: 31
Views: 2542

Re: A Simple Baseball Question, Maybe

I am guessing they are seeing the same TV screen that I am seeing. They are likely in a studio where they have multiple screens from all the cameras (including the outfield that zooms in on the batter). The director switches the cameras that are broadcast to the home viewer, but announcers in a rem...
by Barsoom
Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 335
Views: 20479

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

I just got an email called "ATM Card Payment" from Mr. Chris, the Group Managing Director of First Bank, saying "Attn: Beneficiary, Your ATM card of $5.5 million is ready for shipment. Urgently reconfirm your name, delivery address, and your direct phone number immediately. Contact payment director...
by Barsoom
Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

siamond wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:35 pm
Did I answer your question?
Yes, thank you.

It occurred to me earlier this evening that it was high inflation at the time, and you confirmed that for me.

-B
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Then I'd suggest you go to the Data_Series tab and use the following Total Return (dividends included) data: * Total Stock Market: cells B8 to B156 * Total Bonds Market: cells X8 to X156 * Treasury Bills (aka money market): cells Z8 to Z156 Those are nominal returns. If you want inflation-adjusted ...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Thanks. I'll look into that. I'm trying to use the RPM spreadsheet to create a tool that tests for sequence of return risk.

-B
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Question: I'm looking for sources of data to generate stock and bond return probability distributions. For stocks, I took the Shiller data spreadsheet and used the real S&P 500 price data. For each month, I did a percent difference calculation to the same month one year before (e.g. ("current month ...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Here is an example of the formula I used for total market for the standard deviation (as an example). =IF($E$85>=Analyze_Series!B4,STDEV(INDEX(Analyze_Series!B$8:B$162,$E$85-1870):INDEX(Analyze_Series!B$8:B$162,$E$86-1870))/100,"") While it does add a bunch of references, I think it is the most pro...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1196
Views: 719377

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Welcome! Were you aware there is an open-source solver that may do a better* job than the one supplied with Excel? I don't have any experience with this plugin, but it's been mentioned in several threads: OpenSolver for Excel – The Open Source Optimization Solver for Excel This plugin may break com...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you drink drink coffee and why or why not?
Replies: 36
Views: 2125

Re: Do you drink drink coffee and why or why not?

One mug in the morning is all I drink. If I'm dining out a fine dining restaurant, I might have a cup of decaf with my dessert. Going to the morning coffee station at the office was almost a ritual with me. I did nothing before getting my cup of coffee. If my boss wanted to talk about something, we'...
by Barsoom
Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 80
Views: 5273

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

It really puts in perspective how spectacular Hale-Bopp was. I thought that Hyakutaki was even better, IMHO. -B The thing Hale-Bopp had going for it was not just brightness or shape. It was accessible. It displayed a long time. It was very high in the sky. It was an evening comet, not morning. Are ...
by Barsoom
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 80
Views: 5273

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

Tubes wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:11 am
It really puts in perspective how spectacular Hale-Bopp was.
I thought that Hyakutaki was even better, IMHO.

-B
by Barsoom
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 80
Views: 5273

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

Reading this thread reminded me to go outside to see the Comet Neowise with my binoculars. After that, I was motivated to finally take my Meade LX200 (classic) 10" telescope out for the first time in at least 10 years and have the neighbors over for a look. Now I'm going to refurbish the telescope ...
by Barsoom
Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 80
Views: 5273

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

Reading this thread reminded me to go outside to see the Comet Neowise with my binoculars. After that, I was motivated to finally take my Meade LX200 (classic) 10" telescope out for the first time in at least 10 years and have the neighbors over for a look. Now I'm going to refurbish the telescope w...
by Barsoom
Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

Do you think there would be enough interest to take what you have now and create a separate thread focused on the optimizer? Since you've forked BigFoot48's spreadsheet, discussions in this thread (theory and support) might get mixed with discussions for BigFoot's version. I think directionally it ...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

There is an open-source non-linear solver that is much better than the Excel built-in ones. The one mentioned in Optimized Roth Conversion Model (https://opensolver.org/) or different? That's the one. There are about a dozen included in the package. The non-linear one is called NOMAD. You can get i...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

I'm not trying to push it. It's just that many times people fit their model to the perfect situation. Back-testing it against history (like with FIRECalc) is a good first step to see how the portfolio would have held up during the 100 or so known past retirement periods. The Monte Carlo goes the nex...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

I used Excel goal seek to find the COLA which matches the age 70 number: 0.3%. Let me know if you're interested in stepping up to use Solver with Monte Carlo to optimize things. There is an open-source non-linear solver that is much better than the Excel built-in ones. What's surprising me with my ...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 335
Views: 20479

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

I just got an email called "ATM Card Payment" from Mr. Chris, the Group Managing Director of First Bank, saying "Attn: Beneficiary, Your ATM card of $5.5 million is ready for shipment. Urgently reconfirm your name, delivery address, and your direct phone number immediately. Contact payment director ...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Swim Spa for exercise
Replies: 7
Views: 676

Re: Swim Spa for exercise

SaveAShilling wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:08 am
Anyone have or looked into a Swim Spa? We are doing a major deck project and would like to have one. Maybe.
Have you seen Endless Pools?

I don't have one, but I came across it as I was researching for my own backyard pool.

-B
by Barsoom
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

marcopolo wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:36 pm

Or, you could use butter prices in Bangladesh

https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuild ... says-buy/
LOL!

I can't believe it's not butter! What should I do now? It's not nice to fool Mother Nature...

-B
by Barsoom
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Since this article is titled "Remarkable Accuracy... As A Predictor," here is another equally sensationally titled article from Philosophical Economics from 2013 called The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns . It uses average held investor equity as a forecast of "Subsequent 10...
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 335
Views: 20479

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

I constantly get calls on my cellphone, in several languages, from people offering to buy a property that I own. The problem is, I don't own the properties they're calling about. Recently, I started getting text messages offering the same thing. This time, they include an address (no state and diffe...
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

Since 2018, Shiller has included a new "total return" CAPE10 calculation. Do you think that addresses the concerns raised in that 2015 article? Yes, I do. The calculation is slightly different than the one from the article, but I believe it does essentially the same thing. The difference is that Sh...
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [On-going Scams - Post them here]
Replies: 335
Views: 20479

Re: [On-going Scams - Post them here]

My senior community has recently been subjected to a telephone scammer pretending to be calling from Amazon about a problem order for $77+. It ends with “If you didn’t place this order, call Amazon at 833xxxxxxxx immediately.”. I don’t know what info they ask for if you call back, but given the num...
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns
Replies: 73
Views: 3929

Re: The Remarkable Accuracy of CAPE As A Predictor Of Returns

I think this is the most interesting part about this article is the graph of R^2 over time. Not sure why the correlation with CAPE has increased from 1960-1975, but it's interesting. Another article for predicting future returns is https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/ Just wish they would update...
by Barsoom
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

All: I updated the Monte Carlo variant to the Retiree Portfolio Model with the recent bug fix. Also, a new feature was added: I-ORP Spending Patterns. In the Monte Carlo Setup tab, you can override the Setup Living Expenses and use one of the four alternative spending models, using the Setup Living ...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

I have been testing inclusion of the I-ORP four spending strategies (Reality Retirement Planning, Changing Consumption, The Lifecycle of Spending, Age Banding) in my Monte Carlo variant of the Retiree Portfolio Model.

I will publish this when Bigfoot48 releases his update.

-B
by Barsoom
Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deciding whether to retire - it's difficult!
Replies: 77
Views: 9066

Re: Deciding whether to retire - it's difficult!

You sound like me. I retired last summer. I was 60, and DW was 58 I lived in a HCOL, but moved to Texas a few years before retiring from MegaCorp. No RSUs, but combined 401(k) and pension lump-sum of $4M. I have a 3,000 sq. ft. home here, worth about $300K. For me, it was time to go, as the workforc...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stumbling upon Retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2505

Re: Stumbling upon Retirement

How would it look for you at 3.5%, or even 3%? That would bring me closer to about $100K/year which already seems higher than my past several years of income/expenses yet while also working. That said - I think I need to consider the difference between attempting to spend down a portfolio vs. leavi...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relinquishing CA residency
Replies: 28
Views: 3073

Re: Relinquishing CA residency

Forest and trees.

I moved from California to Texas in October. It was a strategic move.

Over the long term, will the few dollars difference in taxes make a difference against the strategic goals of the move?

-B
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Problem with tankless hot water heater
Replies: 5
Views: 519

Re: Problem with tankless hot water heater

Can you put a foam insulation tube or pipe insulation tape on it like the kind used on outside sprinkler pipes to keep them from bursting in the winter?

-B
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Spending Models when you don't hold typical assets
Replies: 6
Views: 857

Re: Retirement Spending Models when you don't hold typical assets

Try the Retiree Portfolio Model on Boglehead. You can find it here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=97352 It lets you split your portfolio in stocks, bonds, and Money Market. You can add growth rate assumptions for each. It will also let you change your AA at some point in your ...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [relocating] How to assess car break in rate?
Replies: 15
Views: 872

Re: [relocating] How to assess car break in rate?

Try this: https://cityprotect.com/map/list/incidents?pageSize=2000&parentIncidentTypeIds=101&zoomLevel=14&latitude=47.3814017657415&longitude=-122.23856871429439&days=1,2,3,4,5,6,7&startHour=0&endHour=24&timezone=%2B00:00&relativeDate=pastMonth The site used to be called crimereports.com, but it's b...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?
Replies: 80
Views: 5273

Re: Any Astronomy Buffs Out There?

A good book to get children interested is "365 Starry Nights" by Chet Raymo (Amazon Link: https://www.amazon.com/365-Starry-Nights-Introduction-Astronomy/dp/0671766066). It's organized into months and days, has hand drawings of everything, and gives the "lore," sometimes in story form, of the things...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance questions
Replies: 1
Views: 162

Re: Refinance questions

I had a 5/15 ARM that was a relocation special mortgage at 2% interest. It just finished the 5-year fixed period, and the interest jumped to 4% at the beginning of the year. My credit union has a loan modification program (not a full refi), that let me convert the mortgage to a 10-year fixed at 2.62...
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend 3 southern locales to retire!
Replies: 86
Views: 9576

Re: Recommend 3 southern locales to retire!

The Woodlands, Texas (and surrounding areas). It's north of Houston in Montgomery County, so it's away from the urban crime of Houston proper. It's 30 minutes from a great international airport. It has great hospitals, shopping, and restaurants. It has a world-class outdoor amphitheater. Houston is ...
by Barsoom
Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "That is already priced into the Market" ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: "That is already priced into the Market" ?

Everything known is priced in with probabilities of those outcomes occurring . When probabilities of specific outcomes go up to one or down to zero, that’s why prices move. So for an example, a major known event on the horizon, say the 2020 elections, you are saying analysts have already priced int...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tom Clancy series book recommendations
Replies: 29
Views: 1820

Re: Tom Clancy series book recommendations

Vince Flynn. Just like Clancy. He died too young, prostate cancer.

-B
by Barsoom
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel nested array formula question
Replies: 7
Views: 838

Re: Excel nested array formula question

Try this:

=iferror(match(c3,$c$57:$c$106,0),"Not a state")

It will return the number of the row that matches the spelling if it is a state, and will return the text "Not a state" if it doesn't match anything.

-B
by Barsoom
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues
Replies: 151
Views: 10288

Re: Manager vs. Direct report salary issues

As an IC in my MegaCorp for 40 years before I retired, let me tell you that you didn't suddenly become smarter than you were the day before you became a manager. You're not in the army, you're performing a role on a team just like everyone else. Sure, you go to strategy meetings where you're told ab...
by Barsoom
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2340

Re: Current safe withdrawal rate or slightly aggressive withdrawal rate

I created a Monte Carlo variant of the BH Retiree Portfolio Model to test sequence of return risk on portfolio withdrawal strategies. The spreadsheet generates 1,000 random future 40-year variable return rates for stocks, bonds, and cash, instead of back-testing against the 100 or so known past hist...
by Barsoom
Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth
Replies: 11
Views: 854

Re: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth

You can try using the BH Retiree Portfolio Model (see this link: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=97352) to model your cash flow and see what it does. Enter your high-level portfolio, asset allocation, and social security information. It will calculate the income tax and RMD impa...
by Barsoom
Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Model
Replies: 937
Views: 304318

Re: Retiree Portfolio Model

All: I updated the Monte Carlo variant to the Retiree Portfolio Model. I added the Money Market/Cash return to the Monte Carlo variables. Previously, it was a fixed amount that was used for all 40 years. This variable is 100% correlated to the Bond rate, but the user can adjust the minimum, likely, ...
by Barsoom
Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer in Bay area - things to consider?
Replies: 68
Views: 6616

Re: Job offer in Bay area - things to consider?

New job location: South SF, close to airport Potential towns: Freemont, Berkeley, Oakland, Dublin Can't speak to the job, but know this. South San Francisco/San Bruno (close to the airport) is farthest away from Fremont. Next is Dublin, then Berkeley, then Oakland. From Fremont, you will have to ta...
by Barsoom
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Buyout Scenario -did I do this right?
Replies: 22
Views: 1037

Re: Pension Buyout Scenario -did I do this right?

Did you factor in that pensions generally are not inheritable (except for spousal share if that option is chosen)? In other words, if your buddy takes the lump sum and invests it, and then he dies, the money is still there for heirs. If he opts for the pension and then dies, the money is likely gone...
by Barsoom
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question - Reloc to TX
Replies: 105
Views: 7927

Re: Question - Reloc to TX

I lived in California for many years before moving to Texas (Houston metro area).

Texas has no state income tax. My current property tax (while higher than what I paid in California) is lower than what I paid in California income tax, so I netted ahead.

-B
by Barsoom
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Factoring Social Security into Bond Allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 1098

Re: Factoring Social Security into Bond Allocation

Try this: Use the BH Retiree Portfolio Model (see this link: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=97352) to model your cash flow. Enter your high-level portfolio, asset allocation, and social security information. In the section for alternative asset allocation, enter the age that yo...