Search found 442 matches

by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?
Replies: 78
Views: 3153

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

You may find this thread, which references an article, which references a paper, of value. Or, depending on your views, you may not.

Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 744
Views: 351127

Re: Paul Merriman

It is not surprising to me that the Merriman Fund Advice Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio is currently LAST in the Market Watch Lazy Portfolio contest (The Three-Fund Portfolio is in first place) . Best wishes. Taylor I will take this as notice that your three-fund portfolio is now fixed at 10% bond...
by Dialectical Investor
Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTAPX (VTIP) S/T Tips - Distribution Question
Replies: 3
Views: 292

Re: VTAPX (VTIP) S/T Tips - Distribution Question

Is there something about the underlying securities? Or is it a function of the fund? To expand on the above answer, I think it is because the index ratios on which the principal adjustments and interest payments are based are figured using non-seasonally adjusted CPI, and we often see mild deflatio...
by Dialectical Investor
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7145

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

"Fair" doesn't really have anything to do with it. It is not rational to own a riskier asset if you don't think it will produce a higher return for your overall portfolio. If by, "in this conception," you mean, "I can create any world I wish, in my mind, and live within that world," of course peopl...
by Dialectical Investor
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7145

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

HomerJ, skepticism is a good thing but taken to an extreme is non-productive. For example, one could doubt their own existence. We don't know the odds for the future. We can however look to the past for clues about what might happen in the future. Sort of a history doesn't repeat just rhymes type o...
by Dialectical Investor
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Mr. Bogle deserves credit for this unpopular call. I was not aware that this was part of your investment strategy, where you endorse following market calls, depending on who is making the call perhaps, and then determining whether or not the call and the investment choice were correct based on perf...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2644

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

I did not intend to suggest that investing in 450 small companies is the same as investing in one large company. That's why I added the caveat that it would be less risky. You seemed to take offense to that one statement, but my main point was that picking a small sample of the US stock market intr...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2644

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

That's why I said "(though less risky)". 450 different (EDIT: Management structures/sector exposures/factor exposures/differences in random factors) reduces the risk, but it is functionally equivalent if one assumes a market cap weight portfolio is a logical starting point. If 1-2% provides a reaso...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2644

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

The standard deviation of total returns for small cap value funds (because they have very low market capitalization) is extremely high. Some inappropriately label this extra risk as boosting expected return. However, it is simply a result of picking a very small slice of the market and is functiona...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2644

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

The standard deviation of total returns for small cap value funds (because they have very low market capitalization) is extremely high. Some inappropriately label this extra risk as boosting expected return. However, it is simply a result of picking a very small slice of the market and is functiona...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2644

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

The standard deviation of total returns for small cap value funds (because they have very low market capitalization) is extremely high. Some inappropriately label this extra risk as boosting expected return. However, it is simply a result of picking a very small slice of the market and is functiona...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and dice for bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 3190

Re: Slice and dice for bonds

For the bond allocation, I am tending towards a barbell strategy so something around 50% short term, 50% long term with only government bonds. Since I am already heavy on equity, I am not planning to go with anything else that government bonds because as far as I understood, there is a strong corre...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model
Replies: 22
Views: 1690

Re: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model

You might find this page from Marketwatch interesting. It's a comparison of recent returns from eight "lazy" portfolios, including Mr. Merriman's UBH (it's labelled as "Fundadvice" in the chart). This is pretty typical of Paul's choices. I read a lot of his stuff a while ago and admired his diligen...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are they pushing me to buy ETFs?
Replies: 6
Views: 1315

Re: Why are they pushing me to buy ETFs?

What evidence do we have that Vanguard is pushing customers who are perfectly happy with their mutual funds to instead switch to ETFs? Advertising doesn't cut it.
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9301

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:36 pm
Interesting read:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/small- ... 1560278748
Subscription required. :annoyed

Now you have to summarize.
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Triple Levered Retirement Accounts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1150

Re: Triple Levered Retirement Accounts?

Welcome. Yes. You are looking at this the wrong way. Just because you hold the same assets in multiple accounts does not mean you are levered. Aside from tax consequences and access issues, it does not matter where things are located--money is fungible. You could, if you wanted to, take your taxable...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model
Replies: 22
Views: 1690

Re: Paul Merriman UBH vs Vanguard Mkt Cap model

You might find this page from Marketwatch interesting. It's a comparison of recent returns from eight "lazy" portfolios, including Mr. Merriman's UBH (it's labelled as "Fundadvice" in the chart). Maybe I'm missing the date, but this table linked here doesn't clearly say the returns are "as of" a ce...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 2771

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

This type of product is here to stay, but competition will increase. Good acquisition target. Is it worth 7-8 billion? Gotta get those margins up.
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Laptop/Surface Pro - $1,000 +/-
Replies: 14
Views: 747

Re: Best Laptop/Surface Pro - $1,000 +/-

I haven't owned a Thinkpad since the IBM and "deathstar" days, so can't comment on today's build quality by Lenovo. I'll offer a plug for the Dell Latitude 7000 series. Very boring yet serviceable machine when outfitted with an i5 or i7, 14" screen, 8GB RAM (you may want 16), and a 256GB SSD. Very q...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15352

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

This is a good thread with a lot to unpack, but as I re-read some posts, what I thought was a thread about the very proper advice to consider the behavior of the portfolio as a whole rather than focusing on its individual parts, seems at times to devolve into a simple refrain of advising the use of...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15352

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

This is a good thread with a lot to unpack, but as I re-read some posts, what I thought was a thread about the very proper advice to consider the behavior of the portfolio as a whole rather than focusing on its individual parts, seems at times to devolve into a simple refrain of advising the use of ...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond interest rates
Replies: 9
Views: 1039

Re: Bond interest rates

Excellent post! I’ve been in bonds for a long time. One thing I noticed this morning, though, is that my bonds went down overnight. If interest rates are falling, why did my bonds fall? I know I’m oversimplifying, but I don’t think I’ve seen this before—or at least I didn’t notice it. If the price ...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: bizarre letter from Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 4073

Re: bizarre letter from Vanguard

I spoke to Vanguard. The people saying they only count Vanguard mutual funds, etc. and not CDs or other companies' mutual funds are apparently correct. Not that I care about Voyager status, since even with it Vanguard hides their phone number from peons like myself and I have to google to find it. ...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Same thing with investing, smart people when they learn something new that has strong evidence and logic behind it you change your views. Which is it? Factors for the long run? Or change when something new comes along? I don't think "change when something new comes along" quite captures the full me...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: bizarre letter from Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 4073

Re: bizarre letter from Vanguard

In OP's case, losing Voyager status might mean they have to pay certain account service fees, depending on the type(s) of accounts they have. A downgrade in status sometimes has consequences other than making customers feel special.
by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15352

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

This might be relevant if you care about nominal annual returns and hold a 100% stock or 100% bond portfolio. That is not the case for most investors. Dialectical Investor: Our stock/bond allocation is arguably the most important decision we must make. The link I provided offers nine different stoc...
by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OT: Ideas for Detroit Downtown visit
Replies: 12
Views: 671

Re: OT: Ideas for Detroit Downtown visit

You could spend a couple hours at the Detroit Institute of Arts, until they close at 4. Too bad. (I'd drive there.)
by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15352

Re: "Bonds Are For Safety"

Bogleheads: Vanguard reports these Historical Risk/Return Results (1926–2017): Worst annual return for a 100% Stock Portfolio was -43.1% Worst annual return for a 100% Bond Portfolio was -8.1% https://www.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations Best wishes. Taylor This...
by Dialectical Investor
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

The thing is, most people understand the volatility of the market itself and that some stocks are more volatile than the market and that some stocks are less volatile than the market. The traditional definition of beta makes the discussion much easier. When you have multiple betas, that creates mor...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3389

Re: Bonds and Investing

There's a huge difference between you buying a bond and holding it to maturity, and you buying into a mutual fund and the manager of the fund holding it to maturity. That's because you may (and probably will, today) be buying into a fund and paying more than the par value of the bonds held. So even...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 123
Views: 12471

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

If you are buying or selling a nominal bond on the secondary market the effective yield will be quoted relative to the market price at which the transaction takes place. The yield of the bond itself does not change. I see what you are saying--the yield to maturity for the purchaser does not change ...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and Investing
Replies: 31
Views: 3389

Re: Bonds and Investing

If interest rates rise, the price of the asset has to drop so the yield is the same as that in the market. So imagine you have a 3 year bond with a 3% interest rate which cost $100 (thus paying $3 per year). If tomorrow interest rates rose to 6% for a new issue of that 3 year bond (holding all else...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 100
Views: 7750

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

I don't think that's the answer. The question is I thought was about unexpected inflation. Yes if short nominals are yielding 1% and inflation is 2% and remains steady the short nominals don't keep up with inflation. But if the inflation unexpectedly increases to 3% when your short Treasuries (on a...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

To a certain extent this is a discussion about what is knowable & what is not. The factor folks believe that factors (historical explanations) are knowable & will continue to work as in the past in the future. The pure index folks are not so sure & rely on the market to weight factors for them. Thi...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 100
Views: 7750

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

One think I cannot figure out. If the inflation goes to -2.00%, what is the nominal yield a TIP would give you? 0%? Do you have to pay money for it? It depends. I think... A TIPS purchased at par value at auction will return at least slightly more than the nominal amount you paid, because the coupo...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Remember the 3 periods of at least 13 years totaling 45 of last 90 where market beta underperformed tbills while small and value did much better, as much as 1100% better Nothing to do with factors specifically, but this is a troublesome way to present these statistics that will invite discerning cr...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 100
Views: 7750

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

I don't think that's the answer. The question is I thought was about unexpected inflation. Yes if short nominals are yielding 1% and inflation is 2% and remains steady the short nominals don't keep up with inflation. But if the inflation unexpectedly increases to 3% when your short Treasuries (on a...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds
Replies: 41
Views: 3521

Re: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds

Not crazy at all for using funds. Individual Treasuries have a fixed duration, Treasury funds target a length e.g. 7-10 years for iShares IEF intermediate length and roll that forward. If you just buy Treasuries today, you might start off with 10 years, and then in 2028 you have a bunch of 1-year-r...
by Dialectical Investor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds
Replies: 41
Views: 3521

Re: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds

Let's say you buy both a 5 year treasury bond, and a treasury fund with a 5 year duration. In 4 years, the interest rate increases 1%, and you decide to get out of both instruments. Your bond, with now a duration of 1 year, will lose around 1%. Your fund, with still a duration of 5 years, will lose...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an active mutual fund ever appropriate?
Replies: 21
Views: 1774

Re: Is an active mutual fund ever appropriate?

Lately I’ve been thinking of taking a little more risk and investing some extra cash into an active fund. Of all the ways I could take on more risk, this is one of the worst, to me. Betting on a person's or management team's capabilities when you don't have the capabilities to make a full assessmen...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 123
Views: 12471

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

How so? TIPS are adjusted for inflation, period, whether that inflation is expected or not. They protect against unexpected inflation in comparison to nominal treasuries, which have expected inflation priced into their yield. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, TIPS adjust accordingl...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay course" conflicts: Help me understand.
Replies: 10
Views: 1240

Re: "Stay course" conflicts: Help me understand.

"Stay the course" is not useful advice by itself. It has no meaning without reference to the course in question. If you are on the wrong course, you'd better make a change. But what is a good course? New information is available to you on a constant basis. Some of this information may be useful. The...
by Dialectical Investor
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 123
Views: 12471

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I think the TIPS protect against unexpected inflation moreso than expected inflation. Agree How so? TIPS are adjusted for inflation, period, whether that inflation is expected or not. That there are other instruments available that have inflation expectations built in does not change this fact. If ...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

I know that most value investors don't like to admit it, but in my opinion, most factors are stocks and are included in total market stock index funds. It's not that they don't want to admit it. It's simply not a matter that is open to debate. It is an objectively false statement by definition.
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

But factors are not stocks .. Investopedia disagrees: Foundations of Factor Investing Value: Value aims to capture excess returns from stocks that have low prices relative to their fundamental value. This is commonly tracked by price to book, price to earnings, dividends, and free cash flow. Size: ...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Are U.S. Factor stocks are part of Total U.S. Market Index Fund

if factor investing gets too popular, the profile will be part of total market. Paul: Simple logic tells us that U.S. "factor" stocks must be included in the U.S. total market index fund. Best wishes. Taylor All stocks are factor stocks, but factors are not stocks. So, to say US TSM includes all fa...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17251

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Thank you Rick! 1. Over 80% of Bogleheads should not - could not hold a factor-constructed portfolio. You must hold for lengthy periods of underperformance, deal with lots of tracking error , higher costs, etc. Also, if factor investing gets too popular, the profile will be part of total market. Pa...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks to consider for Roth IRA investment
Replies: 2
Views: 191

Re: Stocks to consider for Roth IRA investment

It seems to me that if you don't know what individual stocks you would be buying, then you don't know why you are buying individual stocks. In other words, not much of a plan, since the approach is backwards. First you would have a reason to pick individual stocks rather than a fund, presumably beca...
by Dialectical Investor
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on short term TIPS fund
Replies: 3
Views: 426

Re: Question on short term TIPS fund

I don't manage any of those funds, so I don't know, but it would not make sense for the fund to buy TIPS well after the issue date to handle this "risk" because older issues have more room to fall before they reach the deflation floor since inflation is the norm. A fund may sell before the maturity ...
by Dialectical Investor
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 61
Views: 6811

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

sf_tech_saver wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:31 pm
Honest question: can one earn more from trying these tilt strategies or just finding real work that pays them for the research.
There's usually more money in selling tools, ideas, etc. for other people to use than to use them yourself, except for the most capable or lucky users.