Search found 96 matches

by hisdudeness
Thu May 14, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9400

Re: International market recovery

I'd encourage you to compare US vs exUS CAGR for the last 10 years, the last 20 years, the last 30 years, the last 50 years. I'm not sure how you define 'folk wisdom rather than data' - but, it seems to me there's an awful lot of historical data out there. Speaking for myself, I invest in equities ...
by hisdudeness
Thu May 14, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40792

Re: Why international?

And the U.S. has the strongest financial institutions and shareholder protections in the world, Bogle said. Counter-point to consider, the financial crisis of 2008-09 gave a pretty clear signal on the strength of US financial institutions. As I've posted numerous times recently, this is an endless ...
by hisdudeness
Sun May 10, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16074

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

US-only investors are like the anti-vaxxers of Bogleheads. They just repeat the same 5 tired points that have been thoroughly debunked as red herrings used to backwardly justify their performance chasing. Then when too many of the pro-world-market-cap people find the thread and start dismantling al...
by hisdudeness
Thu May 07, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me get out of international
Replies: 64
Views: 3317

Re: Please help me get out of international

Huskerfan, I know that your mind is made up about your move away from international stocks, but you might want to reconsider. I find that keeping a couple hundred bucks in vtiax (Vanguards total international mutual fund) it does not drag down overall returns by any discernible amount yet I still ex...
by hisdudeness
Wed May 06, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5720
Views: 488317

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Right. I am investing as if I don't know nothing. It's really working better than I thought it would. The world economy, I think, is 100 times more complex than the ideas we might be tempted to post over and over and over. You have to make a lot of choices about suppliers, and I am just not going t...
by hisdudeness
Mon May 04, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631321

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think that today’s close was the bottom. 2237 on the S&P. You heard it here first. Remember my above post from Monday, March 21? Looks like, by dumb luck, I may have called the closing low on the S&P. As of today, we’re up 27% from the 2,237 low of six weeks ago. And I don’t think we’re going bac...
by hisdudeness
Sun May 03, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16074

Re: American exceptionalism

I don't think people are 'reluctant' to talk about it, there's just not much that can be said that's of use one way or another when talking about equities. Someone attempts to pick a specific time period where an extreme withdrawal rate would have failed without an ex-us allocation, and someone els...
by hisdudeness
Sat May 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40792

Re: Why international?

What I don’t understand about all this back and forth on international is do the non international advocates think that Vanguard pros who do this for a living ,not as an avocation, are so wrong? They recommend that 40% of stock holdings be international. I don’t know anything, I’m a total neophyte ...
by hisdudeness
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97080

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

So missing the mark (by a few hundred miles) hasn’t helped you shed the delusion that your market timing wasn’t due to luck? ??? One has to wonder where the bitterness comes from to make a post like this. He missed the specific day that the market was at its lowest. The 'mark', if there ever was su...
by hisdudeness
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110380

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Let's get back to basics. Low cost, high savings rate, and tax efficiency trump a perfect portfolio, which is only known in hindsight anyway. I would rather own a 2 fund or 3 fund or 4 fund portfolio than any actively managed, high expense portfolio of any allocation. Give me a low cost, 2 fund por...
by hisdudeness
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110380

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Try a higher withdrawal rate, and use the conventional methodology of adjusting the withdrawals for inflation. You'll get there , I suspect. For some reason you have not just explained the data, so let me. You set up a constant dollar amount withdrawal that is equal to 7.2% of the initial balance. ...
by hisdudeness
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110380

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

This thread should be called, "Let's internalize and find reasons to talk ourselves into performance chasing". lostdog: I cannot understand your post so I used Google to see what "internalize" means. This is their description: What does it mean to internalize something? If you feel anger, pain, fea...
by hisdudeness
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18195

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Exactly, I'm not sure what vineviz is even arguing for anymore. Vineviz, with your uber-wisdom, what do you propose everyone does WRT international equities? I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier, but in a nutshell I propose this: If you think that markets are difficult to beat and that market ...
by hisdudeness
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18195

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Duplicate, deleted by hisdudeness, not the moderators
by hisdudeness
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18195

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Are we getting close to the point where someone starts the Final, definitive topic on international investing . It could be used to summarize the 738 (and counting) topics that already exist on the subject. My take, just about everyone has a viewpoint, there is no consensus, and no-one seems to be ...
by hisdudeness
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction
Replies: 49
Views: 3403

Re: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction

RomeoMustDie wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:03 pm
We still have room for another black swan event if a New Yorker gets out and infects the entire continental United States.
I got a chuckle out of this and I don't chuckle.
by hisdudeness
Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5044

Re: Market is irrational

Well, the market certainly did not factor in a virus outbreak immediately. If the market is always forward looking one could ask why the market was still making new highs a month after the first case of Corona virus arrived in the U.S. I would argue that the market did factor in the virus outbreak ...
by hisdudeness
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18195

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

If you're just U.S. only because it's done well in the past, you're a performance chaser. If you invest in U.S. only because international under performed and then say you're doing it for the simplicity, you're still a performance chaser. If you do it because Jack and Warren said so and this advice...
by hisdudeness
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11677

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

It is very much possible as the stock market doesn't reflect the real economy. This is a time when Trillions of dollars are being pumped all around. I feel sorry for the people that traded their equity for cash with the intention that they would trade back later. It may be a bit early to be "feelin...
by hisdudeness
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63120

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

panhead wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:25 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Far out
Hah! with that username I would've known you'd appreciate it.
Care for a white Russian while we watch the end of the world?
:sharebeer
by hisdudeness
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63120

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet. We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose r...
by hisdudeness
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay the course - socially responsible?
Replies: 9
Views: 583

Re: Stay the course - socially responsible?

In the event of an emergency, please put on your oxygen mask before assisting others. Good one, I like that. :sharebeer To the OP: No. It would also be helpful to everyone except yourself to burn all your dollars, so that everyone else's dollars are worth ever so slightly more in purchasing power.
by hisdudeness
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97080

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did not read anything where anyone claimed to have special powers to time the market. I read that some people evaluated a situation and changed their normal behavior based on information. They do not need to be mocked or criticized because someone else has zero tolerance for the ability to think....
by hisdudeness
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97080

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Unless someone has posted the moves prior to the transactions they mean nothing. I posted afterward but provided proof of the transactions. It didn't matter. Several would have had me banned if it was in their ability. Can you link me to the proof of your transactions? At the bottom of this post . ...
by hisdudeness
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631321

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Folks, whether we're up a little or down a little means almost nothing. The numbers I posted about 2280 and 2450 are more meaningful. Hopeful we can get an uptrend going even if it's temporary. I know others hate charts, etc. I'm not sure what to tell you other than ignore my post. Markets are supp...
by hisdudeness
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: log in problems - Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 543

Re: log in problems - Vanguard

The first time I logged in, only the brokerage accounts showed up. All 3 mutual fund accounts were MIA. I logged out, then logged back in and everything was there. This was about 8:30 EST
by hisdudeness
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631321

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:31 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:55 pm
[Deleted by Nisi because it was a dumb remark...]
If nisi is making dumb remarks, we're all in trouble.
You're absolutely right.
I don't know what's real anymore.
by hisdudeness
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 50160

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

It's a no-brainer. The Motley Fool just issued a Rare Double Down Buy Alert :mrgreen:
by hisdudeness
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22361

Re: International is in meltdown

This just shows how horrible ex-US has been for so long - huge under-performance by ex-US overall in the long run. Huh? Take out the recent outperformance in the last decade and it looks quite even to me. This keeps coming up again and again in these threads - I don't know why. Ex-US under-performe...
by hisdudeness
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22361

Re: International is in meltdown

Maybe because the success of Toyota and Samsung doesn't lead to good returns on the ex-US index because of the issues he talked about with investing in foreign stock market indexing? I really need to bookmark this image so I don't have to Google it every time, but ... https://www.mymoneyblog.com/wo...
by hisdudeness
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97080

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

CnC, Well done, you seen the systemic risk coming and got out, saved yourself roughly 20% of your soldiers to date. If you can get back in at the right time, depending on your portfolio size and age could make a huge difference when you want to spend your money. Enzo “If you get back in at the righ...
by hisdudeness
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.
Replies: 38
Views: 1957

Re: Understanding the psychology of some boglehead posters.

In before the lock.
Although Tomcat may not be a Boglehead favorite (bet the house thread) I believe his points are valid.
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bet the house. [Rebalanced portfolio to a 10/90 asset allocation]
Replies: 255
Views: 10083

Re: I bet the house.

TomCat96 wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:20 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:19 pm
Op: Could you give us a ballpark figure on how much $ you moved?
Considerably less than a million.

I am not nearly as rich as some of you.
Thanks. I'm sure less than a million is the majority here. Best of luck to you
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bet the house. [Rebalanced portfolio to a 10/90 asset allocation]
Replies: 255
Views: 10083

Re: I bet the house.

Op: Could you give us a ballpark figure on how much $ you moved?
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bet the house. [Rebalanced portfolio to a 10/90 asset allocation]
Replies: 255
Views: 10083

Re: I bet the house.

If the OP made his move on Tuesday at market close, the S&P closed at 3128, I believe. Since then it's down another 174 points, or 5.6%. He's avoided losing 5.6% of his total investment, and will come out ahead if he buys back in at any point below 3128. Sure, he made a risky, unboglehead move, but...
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bet the house. [Rebalanced portfolio to a 10/90 asset allocation]
Replies: 255
Views: 10083

Re: I bet the house.

If the OP made his move on Tuesday at market close, the S&P closed at 3128, I believe. Since then it's down another 174 points, or 5.6%. He's avoided losing 5.6% of his total investment, and will come out ahead if he buys back in at any point below 3128. Sure, he made a risky, unboglehead move, but ...
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who is worried and feels like selling stocks?
Replies: 254
Views: 18829

Re: who is worried and feels like selling stocks?

Not worried thanks to the boglehead philosophy. Thanks Jack! I should have another TLH opportunity. Wife works, maxes 401k, Roth and plow extra into taxable. I'm early retired. If this continues, I might go get a temp job just to plow more into taxable. Seriously thinking about it. Maybe have the w...
by hisdudeness
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296834

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If your allocation is say 70/30 and stocks go down 10%, you'll be at 63/37 just from the market drop, your portfolio is now what we call "out of balance". If stocks decline 10% and bonds don't move, you'll have 63 stocks out of 93 total, or about 68%. Seasonal is right. It's a denominator thing.
by hisdudeness
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97080

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

I did it, I just could not help myself. With markets are all time highest and the coronavirus causing China to quarantine 50 million people, the USA stopping all flights to China and China basically putting their economy on hold for a few weeks I had to take some profits and rebalance my investment...
by hisdudeness
Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631321

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dottie57 wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:41 am
I have very little to do. My AA is at what I want. Hope Virus doesn't kill us all! :shock: remember “The Stand”.
Yes, and World War Z :shock:
by hisdudeness
Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Max Contributions to Roth solo 401k and Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 493

Re: Max Contributions to Roth solo 401k and Roth IRA

If it isn't clear, you can triple-dip on the same compensation for Roth 401k contributions, IRA contributions and the self-employed health insurance deduction. Note: Both pre-tax self-employed retirement plan contributions and the self-employed health insurance deduction reduce your qualified busin...
by hisdudeness
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Max Contributions to Roth solo 401k and Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 493

Re: Max Contributions to Roth solo 401k and Roth IRA

Yes, you can contribute to both the Roth IRA (up to the $7k max) and your Solo Roth 401k (~ $18k per your post). Roth 401k is a good choice. If you instead made a Traditional (pretax) contribution to your Solo 401k, then you would not have the eligible compensation to make a Roth IRA contribution. ...
by hisdudeness
Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18828
Views: 2631321

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I hate it when people post on here that they hope the stock market will decline so they can buy on the cheap. The only reason any of us are investing is because we hope that the market will continue to go up. I rejoice every day that the S&P 500 goes up, and I am sad every day that it goes down. I ...
by hisdudeness
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

I keep about 10% of my equity allocation in International. That's small enough that if Domestic continues to outperform, I'm not losing out by any significant amount. But it's large enough that if International outperforms, I can feel smugly superior to all the 100% Domestic types. :happy And that'...
by hisdudeness
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

That sounds like cherry picking on Faber's part. In the 2009 Credit Suisse yearbook , they reported that from 1900-2008 (all their available data), the real return on ex-U.S. stock was 4.8%, while the U.S. had real returns of 6.0%. Agreed, hard to disregard the last 11 years. Yes, the last 11 years...
by hisdudeness
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

Someone linked to a Mebane Faber tweet up-thread. I think it's worth quoting. Over the past 70 years the US stock market has been a darling, outperforming foreign stocks by 1% per year. $10k invested in US stocks in 1950 turned into $14 million vs. only $8m in foreign stocks. Want to know how much ...
by hisdudeness
Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

That is exactly a point I have often raised which appears to fall on deaf ears. I have zero, none, nada, interest in investing in something that is acknowledged to be much riskier for the same expected return as U.S. For the additional risk, I expect additional expected return! That never seems to ...
by hisdudeness
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

The problem is that the subtle and elusive benefits of international investing have been so grotesquely exaggerated and oversold that it has always set my BS detector pinging left, right, and center. It's like Paul Merriman using language like "why everyone should invest in small-cap value funds" w...
by hisdudeness
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15779

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

bloom2708 wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:29 am
The more I hear I must have 50% international, the more I'm glad I don't. 1.5% today.

I do enjoy reading the discussions though. Thanks.
+1
I'm at $129.15 in VTIAX and shrinking, percentage-wise.
I don't have time for Reverse Performance Chasing.
by hisdudeness
Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last gasp of the bull
Replies: 118
Views: 18109

Re: Last gasp of the bull

Even John Bogle admitted to market timing... made a dramatic change in asset allocation in late 1999. And it was NOT just because of change in life circumstances.. from Enough book But, in late 1999, concerned about the (obviously) speculative level of stock prices, I reduced my equities to about 3...