Search found 1693 matches

by Steve Reading
Thu May 07, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

That's explain a lot of post here, people do not get it. Nobody in his mind, as of monday 7th may 2020 would lump sum anything more thant 2 times is yearly earnings in current economic conditions at current market price. That would be a HUGE risk nobody here commenting about is ACTUALLY DOINGT it. ...
by Steve Reading
Thu May 07, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

That you can determine that the probability of a falling market is more likely does not imply you can determine when the bottom will be. It also doesn't imply it MUST happen...just that it's more likely. 1) I never said you or I could determine the bottom. I never said "knowing the probability of a...
by Steve Reading
Thu May 07, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

No, there's obviously a diversification in time. That's not true. And I just showed you it's not true 0_o January 2020 things looked solid till November....so there was no really good reason to do something like a 6 month DCA. The odds were that Lump Sum wins. IMO, there's never a good reason to DC...
by Steve Reading
Thu May 07, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

DCA is a form of diversification. You are diversifying buying points in time, instead of gambling it all on a single point in time. On the contrary, DCA leads to lower temporal diversification. When you DCA, you will have periods of time with higher exposure to the market (later down the road) and ...
by Steve Reading
Wed May 06, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?
Replies: 156
Views: 5702

Re: Why is lump sum investment option better than DCA?

The answer is because somebody backtested performance doing LS and DCA and found that LS was slightly better on average about 2/3rds of the time. Sorry but that's not right. My problem with DCA is that it is usually logically inconsistent . DCA'ing a large value means that you are ok being fully in...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 920
Views: 81676

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

I have seen recommendations for the books by Moshe A. Milevsky and Tristan Yates, have you read those and did they add anything beyond what is in the A&N book? I read "Are you a stock or a bond?". Does a decent job about thinking about your job as an investment (invest it in with education, protect...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Do you disagree that discrepancy like this in numbers matter, especially when someone is trying to make a case using them in favor of their argument? For instance, FF data shows 88% in one situation, the closest fund is DFSVX with 81%, do you think a 7% variation between an index and a fund doesn't...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Do you disagree that discrepancy like this in numbers matter, especially when someone is trying to make a case using them in favor of their argument? For instance, FF data shows 88% in one situation, the closest fund is DFSVX with 81%, do you think a 7% variation between an index and a fund doesn't...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Bought another small amount (1.5k) in VBR. This is the third consecutive day that SCV is beating SPY. So a little annoyed. OTOH, VBR is still like 32% off its height so still content with my purchase. At least your buy didn’t end the streak. Haha I guess so. Ironically, I was hoping it would. Bough...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Good article today by Ben Carlson What Happened to Small Cap Value? At its trough, the Russell 2000 Value Index was down nearly 45% from the highs. Small cap value stocks are still down well over 30% over the past year. ... Using history as a guide can be imperfect because investors don’t live in a...
by Steve Reading
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I'm a massive speculator, I thought you knew that already Taylor. I learned it all from the speculator neurologist William Bernstein and his book "Ages of the Investor" where he recommends young adults speculate heavily on SCV. Steve: Perhaps Dr. Bernstein has changed his mind: In his book , "How M...
by Steve Reading
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Betting is Speculating; not Investing

Bought another small amount (1.5k) in VBR. This is the third consecutive day that SCV is beating SPY. So a little annoyed. OTOH, VBR is still like 32% off its height so still content with my purchase. Steve: I have no doubt that SCV (Small Cap Value) will eventually achieve above average performanc...
by Steve Reading
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Bought another small amount (1.5k) in VBR.

This is the third consecutive day that SCV is beating SPY. So a little annoyed. OTOH, VBR is still like 32% off its height so still content with my purchase.
by Steve Reading
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying puts instead of selling stock
Replies: 21
Views: 1407

Re: Buying puts instead of selling stock

Now I understand why the key to making money in options has always been to be the broker who sells them to customers. The brokerage isn’t the counter party. The brokerage only serves as the intermediary; they collect the commissions and spreads that’s all. If you feel buying a put is a terrible ide...
by Steve Reading
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 920
Views: 81676

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

(...) Also has anyone recently looked at IB's margin rates? 1.05% for accounts with over 100k? Mamma mia that's incredibly competitive. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but I would feel like I need a model to figure out what a safe margin utilization rate was - taking into a account max drawdown (pro...
by Steve Reading
Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 920
Views: 81676

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Let's say I've already read the book and am deciding I want to leverage somehow with a small portion of my future savings, let's call it $2k per month. What is the cheapest way to leverage a diversified portfolio of stocks? I have been comparing opening a 2 to 1 margin account at Interactive Broker...
by Steve Reading
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479374

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Forester wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:29 am
The bottom likely isn't in until small cap beats TSM by a couple of percent over a week. S&P 500 leading the charge smells of FOMO & complacency.
S&P 500 leading the charge? SCs beat S&P 500 yesterday and are beating it today 0_o
by Steve Reading
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Nice pop by SCV over TSM today. I'm really hoping SCV stays beaten down and doesn't randomly start outperforming SPY significantly though. I'm not done accumulating the amount I want :/
by Steve Reading
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Value experts, I am thinking of adding a bit to my still quite mild value tilt. I currently hold VTV and VBR (though in their mutual fund avatars). What single fund or ETF would you suggest to best complement these, in a taxable account? [to be clear, this opportunity comes from selling a fund that...
by Steve Reading
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: 1,000 Small-Cap Value Posts

Any factor can underperform at any given time. A portfolio diversified across factors is less likely to have a negative outcome over any given timeframe. In fact, I think the shorter the relevant timeframe (for example the 5 years on either side of starting retirement) the more important factor div...
by Steve Reading
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: 1,000 Small-Cap Value Posts

I never really bought the risk/return explanations of small cap. There isn't a satisfying economical explanation as to why smaller firms should have higher costs of capital, like there is for value, profitability and investment. Sounds like you understand why value firms should have higher cost of ...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: 1,000 Small-Cap Value Posts

I never really bought the risk/return explanations of small cap. There isn't a satisfying economical explanation as to why smaller firms should have higher costs of capital, like there is for value, profitability and investment. Sounds like you understand why value firms should have higher cost of ...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?
Replies: 19
Views: 1223

Re: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?

Thanks. Market Timer did use other techniques to borrow money, such as an "App-O-Rama," which was the systematic use of large numbers of credit card applications in order to exploit the "0% for 18 months" balance transfer deals that were common at the time. Could you point me to where they recommen...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?
Replies: 19
Views: 1223

Re: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?

...I don't believe MT made use of a margin loan. It's likely he paid some margin interest occasionally between various transactions though... I skimmed through fifty or a hundred posts in Market timer's margin call . Could you take a look and see if you can tell what he was doing, if I didn't descr...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: 1,000 Small-Cap Value Posts

It's a little bothersome that time and time again, you chime in, calling this "risky" or "gambling". Yes, we get it. But we're all grown adults and understand the risks. Can you list all the risks involved in SCV? I asked this before but the only answer I got was SCV is more volatile. Is that it? I...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: 1,000 Small-Cap Value Posts

Bogleheads: This topic has over 1,000 posts discussing small-cap value funds -- often recommended by the financial industry but which are now (and have been for over 5-years) the WORST performing Morningstar category. My suggestion : Instead of a risky bet that this one small corner of the market (...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The Oakmark funds which are traditionally very value oriented (Bill Nygren runs them) have gone into Alphabet. OAKLX has 7% of its holdings there. OAKMX has a smaller stake. You can hear him on podcasts in the last year defending the idea that Alphabet is really a good value stock, and saying the o...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?
Replies: 13
Views: 631

Re: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?

He means you need to also add an inflation expectation to your expected stock yield, so your bond allocation should actually be even lower. Ok, it looks like a 10 Year TIPS rate would be the appropriate one to use? Thank you. A TIPs yield would be more reasonable. It's still not perfect because TIP...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?
Replies: 19
Views: 1223

Re: Margin loan or leveraged ETFs?

Nisi, great post. Very informational and I agree with most. Just a couple of clarifications. I don't think either a margin loan or leveraged ETFs are a good idea. Ayres and Nalebuff appeared to be recommending the use of LEAPS options as the preferred embodiment of their idea. A&N's preferred vehicl...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

My point was not so much the amount of holding but that the holdings of stocks themselves. For example, Google, is it a growth or value stock? I would call it a growth stock yet I can find it in various value funds. There are many other example and better. I think you will find that most holdings o...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?
Replies: 13
Views: 631

Re: Shiller PE / Bond Yield Asset Allocation Model ?

Have any considered using this strategy for your AA IPS? *Earning Yield / (*Earnings Yield + **Bond Yield) = % of Portfolio in Stock *Earnings Yield Based on Shiller PE (currently 23.5) **Bond Yield Based on BBB or 10 year Treasury ? Using BBB rate (Moody's rate of 4.59%) produces => 48/52 Using 10...
by Steve Reading
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for resources on options trading
Replies: 5
Views: 228

Re: Looking for resources on options trading

Hello, I am completely new to the world of options. I found a ton of information on YouTube and the world of webbing. Any recommendations on books or websites or any resources that you think helped you at some point? TIA My preferred choice was “Options as a Strategic Investment” by Lawrence McMill...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks are undervalued!
Replies: 83
Views: 9096

Re: International stocks are undervalued!

Most of my international exposure is in FNDC :sharebeer. It wouldn't look quite so bad if you were a bit more fair though and included some small-value US funds as you did with FNDC. None of the international funds I cited is an official value fund. I'd rather get a broad-based fund for better dive...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

According to the board FAQ, you can hide a user's post using the Friends/Foes list. What are my Friends and Foes lists? You can use these lists to organize other members of the board. Members added to your friends list will be listed within your User Control Panel for quick access to see their onli...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

So I had 80.05 left in cash at the brokerage so I was like "uh whatever, limit order VBR at 80.05 if it executes, it executes". Turns out that was the low point of today so I guess you could consider me an expert market timer. The dark side of the Force SCV-tilt is a pathway to many abilities some ...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

So I had 80.05 left in cash at the brokerage so I was like "uh whatever, limit order VBR at 80.05 if it executes, it executes". Turns out that was the low point of today so I guess you could consider me an expert market timer. The dark side of the Force SCV-tilt is a pathway to many abilities some c...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

I have to admit that with recent beating of SCV & stimulus bill (quantitative easing?) favoring larger companies , I have abandoned this SCV heavy allocation and now moved to a barbell-style approach similar to Bernstein Simpleton portfolio (with added 20% REITs). I'm not an expert on it (have not ...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

[response to removed posts (removed) -- admin LadyGeek] In other news: Bought a slug of VBR. PB of around 1.5 and PE of 14. Very happy with these prices fellas. Mind sharing again why you chose VBR over the S&P600 options? I hold VSIAX in my 401k but have opted for VIOV/SLYV everywhere else. I did ...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

[response to removed posts (removed) -- admin LadyGeek] In other news: Bought a slug of VBR. PB of around 1.5 and PE of 14. Very happy with these prices fellas. Mind sharing again why you chose VBR over the S&P600 options? I hold VSIAX in my 401k but have opted for VIOV/SLYV everywhere else. I did ...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

[response to removed posts (removed) -- admin LadyGeek]

In other news: Bought a slug of VBR. PB of around 1.5 and PE of 14. Very happy with these prices fellas.
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

I agree on diversification but looking at distributions that way is flawed IMHO. Total return is what matters and you can always sell overweight assets to rebalance in a bear market; a dividend is just a forced withdrawal. Even if it weren’t flawed, doesn’t VNQ have like a 3% distribution yield rig...
by Steve Reading
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7177

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

When energy is in steep contango, like today, you hear of hedge funds that lease tankers for storage, buy spot, and sell futures based on the arbitrage relationship. Presumably, those players are gone when oil moves into backwardation. Any storage that remains when the futures market is in backward...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

If I were worried about unintended sector bets, I wouldn’t put 20% in REITs (a sector bet) :). I like the fundamental options though! Overall I like the move, but not great timing. True, its a sector bet, however real-estate is certainly under-represented in global equity indices. In terms of corre...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7177

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

They’re solidly in contango. Meaning that everyone, just like you, expects the price to go up in the future. Nope. Futures follow the "no-arbitrage" rule of pricing. Thus futures do not indicate where the price will be in the future. It means that storage costs are high. To the OP, before you start...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Last week, I indulged in over-rebalancing in my tax-advantaged portfolio. Price to Book for IVOV and VIOV were lowest since about 2013. Change in allocation: IVOO: 15% IVOV: 15% -> 17.5% VIOO: 15% VIOV: 15% -> 17.5% USRT: 15% VSS: 15% EDV: 10% -> 5% I am 35% down as per Fidelity positions view as o...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Last week, I indulged in over-rebalancing in my tax-advantaged portfolio. Price to Book for IVOV and VIOV were lowest since about 2013. Change in allocation: IVOO: 15% IVOV: 15% -> 17.5% VIOO: 15% VIOV: 15% -> 17.5% USRT: 15% VSS: 15% EDV: 10% -> 5% I am 35% down as per Fidelity positions view as o...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7177

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

They’re solidly in contango. Meaning that everyone, just like you, expects the price to go up in the future. Nope. Futures follow the "no-arbitrage" rule of pricing. Thus futures do not indicate where the price will be in the future. It means that storage costs are high. To the OP, before you start...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119282

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

I am going to make a note that, as a goodwill gesture to all those who are hurting with factor tilting I am going to stay away from making further comments. We are all hurting one way or other, and further misery is not needed. I think I have already made my views clear, but as always it has no mor...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18181

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

Hulbert's summary says "But if the sole reason you’re investing in non-U.S. stocks is their alleged low correlation with U.S. stocks, you may want to think twice." Is that not what you just proved? I don't think so. For one thing, the low correlation is real and not "alleged". For another, I don't ...
by Steve Reading
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard in ??? Monroe, Wisconsin, pop. 11,000, Swiss cheese capital of the world?
Replies: 6
Views: 1010

Re: Vanguard in ??? Monroe, Wisconsin, pop. 11,000, Swiss cheese capital of the world?

So, I received a transaction confirmation and the only address on it is "Vanguard, PO Box 3009, Monroe, WI, 53566-8309." This strikes me as really curious, because Monroe is a little town of 10,000, best known as the headquarters of Swiss Colony cheese. And various Google searches on things like "v...