Search found 6486 matches

by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

...Internal rate of return is the most comprehensive, honest way to report investment returns.... Au contraire . As I pointed out above, I can dramatically increase my IRR by using a smaller down-payment. Needless to say, anyone who can put down 20%, can with absolute certainty, put down 10%, 5%, o...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

...Internal rate of return is the most comprehensive, honest way to report investment returns.... Au contraire . As I pointed out above, I can dramatically increase my IRR by using a smaller down-payment. Needless to say, anyone who can put down 20%, can with absolute certainty, put down 10%, 5%, o...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Yup. IMO the best metric for real estate is IRR. The best metric for indexing is CAGR. With stocks and index funda, best case scenario you will pay 15% in capital gains tax. In real estate, I have legally payed zero every year, if not a small paper loss. Just another oft overlooked point. No. Your ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. It is absurd on it's face -- a bunch of amateur landlords routinely getting double Warren Buffett's annualized returns? It is also impossible, because if sustainable 38% returns were so widely available, there would be trillions of dollars pouring into real estate...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% + 8% + 4% + 3.75% + 3% = 38.75% annualized return on your $20K down payment. The kicker here is that rental real estate returns very typically grow every year because if your expenses increase at the same level as rents, the way the math works, the difference becomes greater every year (kind of...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....
Replies: 90
Views: 5856

Re: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....

I like the idea of selling 90-95% and holding on to the rest. But the reality of the situation is that the probability of the company surviving into the next generation isn't particularly high, even if it has survived for the last 100 years. Keep that in mind.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Semi-Retire by 40-45, possible/realistic?
Replies: 21
Views: 3197

Re: Semi-Retire by 40-45, possible/realistic?

It's possible but the kid may end up being more expensive than you think. Based on your numbers it seems realistic, but I would invest more aggressively than 70/30 for a semi-retirement that long. How long do you plan ti wirk part Time? Your portfolio will need to at least double in real terms befor...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11150

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I'm a private banker, and I find this discussion very thought provoking. In my view, it is not the thing or investment being purchased that makes leverage "good" or "bad" - or more advantageous or more risky. It's the loan structure. If the only way to borrow to buy a home was on a high interest ra...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Day 2018
Replies: 88
Views: 9499

Re: Amazon Prime Day 2018

Not many decent deals this year IMO. I wouldn’t want to be the engineer who accidentally brought the site down earlier today...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surface Pro(2017) vs 9.7" iPad 2018 (edited)
Replies: 35
Views: 2415

Re: Surface Pro(2017) vs 9.7" iPad 2018 (edited)

Surface is better for producing content whereas the iPad tends to be better for consuming. Since it sounds like you’ll be doing more producing, I’d say go with the surface.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 45
Views: 2047

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?

I don’t see how 2 funds is simpler than 3 funds in a meaningful way. Is it taking you too much time to manage?
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Kyle has been the only person to date on 3 different forums that has fervently pointed out that the returns are "undefined", not infinite. I also have 2 properties where I pulled out all the money I had in the deal through a cash out refinance, having $0.00 in the properties, yet still getting mont...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Can I get 10 loans for $150k with 20% down? I have only held one mortgage at a time and it's always been a VA loan with 0% down. Seems I could get infinite returns on one rental with that setup. Yes you can. I have done a "nothing down" deal but used private money. So I earn cash flow and did not i...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction
Replies: 40
Views: 5589

Re: Received $1m windfall with additional upside; looking for feedback on plan to hedge against market correction

I think your idea to take less equity risk in light of your situation is reasonable. Your idea to buy puts on the market as a hedge is not.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11150

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

You can leverage real estate more cheaply and on much more favorable terms than stocks. Fixed rates and no margin calls are big advantages compared to adjustable margin rates that are aggressively called when the market turns down.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 197
Views: 8306

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

20% is extremely doable with leveraged rentals and perhaps even if you use property manager, if you buy well. Real estate isn't for everyone, but 20-30% is realistic. Ignore the "Real estate pays you 5 ways instead of just 1 way" people. The number of ways an investment pays is irrelevant. There is ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a $1.8-2M house
Replies: 54
Views: 9130

Re: Affording a $1.8-2M house

We ended up just buying in Seattle itself. Dumps sell for $1mm on the east side but deals can still be had outside the trendy in town neighborhoods. I disagree there is a bubble either in Seattle real estate or tech compensation. The fundamentals are sound and secular trends like the transition to ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logging out 20 acre lot?
Replies: 37
Views: 2464

Re: Logging out 20 acre lot?

If you cut the trees, it will decrease the value of the property. So it's a long-term play, since if you can't sell it for enough to pay off the loan today, after logging it will take you even longer. You can cash out a pretty nice lump sum in the meantime, though. Could you try renting the house in...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?
Replies: 136
Views: 9466

Re: When does frugal cross the line to cheapskate?

When someone else does it.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8899

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I'm using 4% real for a heavily tilted 70/30 portfolio. I plan to have so much money it won't matter if I end up getting 2%.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10031

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

The stock price of Netflix is quite mystery to me. From value investor point of view, the company financial is quite garbage with regard to its near 300 P/E ratio, 15+ years after IPO, still negative free cash flow, still heavy in debt and depends on borrowing for growth instead of internal cash fl...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation to Atlanta
Replies: 16
Views: 1672

Re: Relocation to Atlanta

We lived in the Grant Park area before moving to Seattle. HIGHLY, HIGHLY recommend. RE values should do very well over the next decade as the beltline continues to build up, and you can get to the airport in less than 15 minutes even in traffic. Also, it's right off 20 and full of charming victorian...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 76
Views: 10031

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

It's been a very good year indeed for those of us with very large stakes in one of those companies. I share your concerns about what the lack of breadth may imply, but I don't get the sense this situation is as unusual as we might guess. I wonder how often gains are this concentrated.
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface
Replies: 19
Views: 1560

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface

These all seem very minor, but if you liked your old brokerage better you should vote with your feet.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025
Replies: 44
Views: 3875

Re: Dow 40000 prediction for 2025

That's only a 7% CAGR. Seems reasonable but, of course, you shouldn't count on it.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you count pension contributions as a portion of your overall retirement contributions.
Replies: 47
Views: 3504

Re: Do you count pension contributions as a portion of your overall retirement contributions.

I include the match in both the numerator and denominator. It's savings, but it's also income.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a $1.8-2M house
Replies: 54
Views: 9130

Re: Affording a $1.8-2M house

We ended up just buying in Seattle itself. Dumps sell for $1mm on the east side but deals can still be had outside the trendy in town neighborhoods. I disagree there is a bubble either in Seattle real estate or tech compensation. The fundamentals are sound and secular trends like the transition to t...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 15186

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

Agree with other posters who state the summer weather will not be materially better in the places you mentioned vs Georgia and Florida unless you live right on the coast or at elevation a la Asheville, NC. Raleigh is a bit further north than Atlanta but at much lower elevation, for example. And if y...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?
Replies: 22
Views: 1577

Re: How come voice command on Garmin GPS is so lousy compared to Google Maps?

GPS and voice recognition are very different fields. AI is google’s biggest strength, so of course they excel at it.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone hear of or invest in Rich Uncles?
Replies: 18
Views: 3446

Re: Anyone hear of or invest in Rich Uncles?

8% seems really low for that kind of risk and lack of liquidity. Even if I knew for a fact it wasn't some sort of scam, I don't think I'd be tempted.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Tried Youtube TV Yet?
Replies: 42
Views: 3959

Re: Anyone Tried Youtube TV Yet?

Don't use Youtube TV but Hulu TV is great now that you can get sports channels. In general they work great so long as your internet connection is decent.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18071

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I'm globally diversified so this doesn't particularly alarm me either way, but remember that nobody knows nothing. Morningstar can't predict the future any better than you can, and I think they'd be the first to admit it. The last decade was very good to me so if I have to make due on 1-2% real over...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Business valuation opinions
Replies: 17
Views: 1233

Re: Business valuation opinions

What personal headaches do you think would be involved in staffing up? I think you'd find the opposite.

But $4-5mm is a nice chunk of change in addition to what you've hopefully already saved.
by KyleAAA
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 million house--- sanity check
Replies: 96
Views: 10401

Re: $1 million house--- sanity check

I would say you could afford it, but you likely need much more than $30k cash on-hand for such a purchase to be successful. It sounds like you haven't yet started having conversations with a real estate agent or lender who can help you sort this out. I live in Seattle; my understanding is that the ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jun 28, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 million house--- sanity check
Replies: 96
Views: 10401

Re: $1 million house--- sanity check

You could easily afford a $2mm house on that income. Go for it and don't think twice. You could easily afford that house and still save 30%+ if not 45%+ of your gross income. This isn't even close to being borderline. You can clearly unambiguously and easily afford that house. I am puzzled why anybo...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car dealer pricing
Replies: 44
Views: 2507

Re: New car dealer pricing

There are some dealers who don't haggle (Carmax is a famous example) but most will, even if they say they won't. Or maybe the internet price actually is their lowest price, in which case they won't. Impossible to know without talking to them, which is what they want.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate, isn't it personal?
Replies: 49
Views: 3564

Re: Inflation, isn't it personal?

Inflation isn't personal. It IMPACTS individuals in different ways, but the definition of inflation is "...a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services in a county, and is measured as an annual percentage change..." By definition, inflation is an aggregate measure. That...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor - Threatening Lien/Lawsuit
Replies: 55
Views: 6547

Re: Contractor - Threatening Lien/Lawsuit

You almost certainly did have a legally binding contract but it appears as though he didn't follow through in good faith. You're probably in the clear, but it couldn't hurt to ask a lawyer. As for how you get your initial $200 back, no idea on that.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sudden appearance of multiple buyers real or negotiation tactic?
Replies: 61
Views: 4029

Re: Sudden appearance of multiple buyers real or negotiation tactic?

It's possible this is a negotiation tactic, but I've seen almost this exact scenario happen for real and the property ended up selling for more than the initial asking price.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: views on "Empower Retirement" as a 401k provider? fees? ease of use etc?
Replies: 40
Views: 4893

Re: views on "Empower Retirement" as a 401k provider? fees? ease of use etc?

I’m so glad I came upon this thread. My wife had worked for a company that had empower retirement plan around 10years ago. She was with that company for just a couple of years. We would get statements but there was never a transaction history, just a total account value in that statement. Well, I f...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: views on "Empower Retirement" as a 401k provider? fees? ease of use etc?
Replies: 40
Views: 4893

Re: views on "Empower Retirement" as a 401k provider? fees? ease of use etc?

They put on the hard sell when I tried to roll my 401k over to Vanguard. Not enjoyable.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 119
Views: 11796

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

Some do. You can, too.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32400

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Also a couple of questions: for the software engineers, are they usually software engineering graduates, or does it include computer science degrees as well? And for the accountants, what would you recommend to someone that doesn't really want to work in a tax firm? Are there many other areas to mo...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Security
Replies: 62
Views: 4786

Re: Computer Security

Turn on Windows Defender or switch to *nix. Don’t open attachments from Nigerian princes or long lost great grand nieces who claim to need you to send them bail money. Nothing special need be done. You might look into some sort of Adblocker but the ethics of those are murky.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 32400

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Software Engineer. It used to be a great gig. It was like getting paid to play. Lately, not so much. :( Wage busting, glass ceiling, ageism, offshoring, deteriorating working conditions ... now its a meh job. :( :( Some software work is cutting edge, glamorous, and exciting. It is even rumored to b...