Search found 6633 matches

by KyleAAA
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 92
Views: 3616

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

Is it true that it will ALWAYS be possible to blame the pricing model? That sounds like an assertion that needs justification. We may yet refine the EMH and figure out how to test it effectively.
by KyleAAA
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Depot Stock
Replies: 16
Views: 1685

Re: Home Depot Stock

I think HD's prospects are quite good, but I wouldn't hold more than 5% or so of my portfolio in any one stock regardless. It's interesting to note it has returned about 24% per year since going public in 1986, which is incredible.
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

What if OP doesn't want to live in the Bay Area? HCOL and these are typically burnout types of jobs. It is a very specific segment. BTW...FB has 25k employees, Google has 85k, Apple 123k (includes retail), etc. These companies have big market caps but the number of employees is small compared to Wa...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

Your second point is inferring that OP will be much above average in this prospective job. This whole topic has gotten way too much into the weeds. Looking at the very top salaries is not what I would do when giving someone looking for a career. I wouldn't say become an actor....some make $50 milli...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

Some of these things are not "careers". That is like saying I am going to play basketball for the Chicago Bulls and be a starter. Saying you are going to get a degree in X and go work for Google as Y is not far behind saying you are going to have a career as an actor or sports figure. You cannot ta...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

Most software developers don't get equity. Which isn't at all relevant. Enough do that to ignore it significantly underestimates the median. But even if I grant you that, which I don't, my second point still stands. Your second point is inferring that OP will be much above average in this prospecti...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

I still have no idea where you get this idea that these numbers are common. Just because a bunch of anonymouse uses on Blind say it doesn make it true. The BLS statistical data is out there and easy to find.... I get it from industry compensation data surveys (think something like Culpepper, but mo...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

I've worked in tech for 25 years. I suggest looking at the MEDIAN salaries for a particular job role. There is no doubt good paying jobs in tech, but you need to be realistic. I, too, have worked in tech for a long time. Two problems with that: 1.) The median never captures equity, which is a large...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

I've worked in tech for 25 years. I suggest looking at the MEDIAN salaries for a particular job role. There is no doubt good paying jobs in tech, but you need to be realistic. I, too, have worked in tech for a long time. Two problems with that: 1.) The median never captures equity, which is a large...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

I've worked in tech for 25 years. I suggest looking at the MEDIAN salaries for a particular job role. There is no doubt good paying jobs in tech, but you need to be realistic. I, too, have worked in tech for a long time. Two problems with that: 1.) The median never captures equity, which is a large...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

Well, I am probably repeating myself, but a company is not a career. An industry is not a career. The COL is very high. Not adjusting for the very high COL is not comparing apples to apples. The link is to THE highest paid company in Silicon Valley. Again, there are a lot of anecdotes. Thinking you...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 467
Views: 43813

Re: Lucrative careers?

Markets are efficient. $200k sounds good if you can live in an RV or stay in a converted closet wither young people who have similar stars in their eyes. For everyone else, $200k still isn't enough. Hahaha stock markets are efficient. Most markets absolutely are NOT efficient, least of all the labo...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?
Replies: 56
Views: 7608

Re: Evaluate net worth - FIRE really that close?

$3mm in 5 years seems unlikely unless you can either cut your expenses significantly or boost your income. If you could save $200k per year, it suddenly becomes very realistic. I think 7 or 8 years is doable with your numbers.
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income (US vs Europe)
Replies: 55
Views: 3653

Re: Income (US vs Europe)

The data I have gathered thus far leads me to believe that a programmer in St Louis is still making more than a programmer in [insert second-tier EU city here], and probably even more than a programmer in London or Paris. At a former employer we had several teams in Europe (including Paris and Lond...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6418

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Most people believe we're in a bubble? I think very few people believe that. I would buy that most people believe valuations are on the high end, but "bubble" is a loaded term and I just don't see it. And yeah, the market will drop 20-50% at some point. But since nobody knows when that will be, it's...
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income (US vs Europe)
Replies: 55
Views: 3653

Re: Income (US vs Europe)

Yes. America is better. We have more money, social mobility, way less taxes, and the American dream. It’s why my family left Europe to come to America. Also unemployment is at its lowest. Nope. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/14/americans-overestimate-social-mobility-in-their-country
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3718

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

Yes, but what matters is how an asset works in the context of a portfolio, not how it works in isolation. Nobody is advocating a 100% bond allocation. In the context of a portfolio including a significant allocation to equities (say, 40%+ but preferably 60%+) they have provided valuable ballast wit...
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95116

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:42 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:08 pm


Even automobiles and appliances have IoT built in now.
What is IoT? I googled it and found 'Internet of things'; is that what you meant?
Yes. This is the future: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/overv ... -of-cloud/
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income (US vs Europe)
Replies: 55
Views: 3653

Re: Income (US vs Europe)

For software engineers yes, salaries are MUCH higher in the US other than European outposts of companies like Google or FB. In the US, you can easily make $200k without having to work for a few top companies whereas in Europe, you likely can't. I can't comment on other professions, but I would assum...
by KyleAAA
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40-60% drawdown in bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3718

Re: 40-60% drawdown in bonds

Yes, but what matters is how an asset works in the context of a portfolio, not how it works in isolation. Nobody is advocating a 100% bond allocation. In the context of a portfolio including a significant allocation to equities (say, 40%+ but preferably 60%+) they have provided valuable ballast with...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8538

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any better with RE than with other asset classes. "Risk-adjusted" returns is an extremely nebulous term. One person's low risk-adjusted returns are another person's high risk-adjusted returns. It's subjective. For instance, if I have a 0% or ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8538

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink: I own quite a bit of real estate. Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any better with RE than with other asset classes. "Risk-adjusted" returns is an extremely nebulous term. One person's low risk-adjusted returns are a...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8538

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine. As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink: I own quite a bit of real estate. Smart move. Can't say my risk adjusted returns have been any be...
by KyleAAA
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8538

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:04 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:05 pm
With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine.
As long as it's not real estate, then Kyle approves :wink:

I own quite a bit of real estate.
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income
Replies: 56
Views: 8538

Re: Best way to Invest 10 Million Portfolio at 40 without income

With expenses that small relative to your portfolio it doesn't really matter what you invest in. Any reasonable asset allocation will be fine.
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2520

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

Wow props to him, I thought he is a greedy bastard :D He is the richest billionaire without any philanthropy activities (when compared to others). He just gave out what? $7 avg increase X 40 X 52 weeks X 250,000 workers = $3.6 billion out of the company pocket book (probably less - not all worker w...
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2520

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

I think part of it is political pressure (Amazon is not well-liked in Seattle) and yeah, part of it is probably what you say although I don't know how you would quantify what the impact would actually be with all the complexity involved. I wouldn't discount that he probably legitimately thinks it's ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]
Replies: 98
Views: 6677

Re: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]

Because net worth is defined as assets - liabilities. Real Estate is an asset because it has economic value and is easy to convert into a cash flow.
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.
Replies: 87
Views: 8399

Re: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.

If you want to get mega-rich ($20mm+) you need to start your own business and scale it to tens of millions in revenue, at least. It can be in any field, doesn't need to have anything to do with Wall Street. If that’s the case I have an idea. Only problem is I’m not well acquainted with the business...
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 38
Views: 2348

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

Drive 100 miles from downtown in any direction and start looking there. I can't even stand driving through Atlanta. ive lived in atlanta and currently live in not-atlanta, georgia. ive been surprised at how much everyone from not-atlanta HATES atlanta. are other states this way? it is astounding to...
by KyleAAA
Tue Oct 02, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 38
Views: 2348

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

I've lived in: Decatur Midtown Virginia Highland Inman Park Grant Park (technically Ormewood Park but it's just to the east and a quick walk) Feel free to ask me any questions about those neighborhoods. I grew up in Atlanta and lived 95% of my adult life there so I can probably answer questions abou...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?
Replies: 71
Views: 7301

Re: Bonds... Why do people bother with them. ?

How much did you have invested in 2008? Now multiply that by 100. Would you have reacted the same way?
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.
Replies: 87
Views: 8399

Re: Beginner. Want to get mega-rich. Help with portfolio, tips, etc.

If you want to get mega-rich ($20mm+) you need to start your own business and scale it to tens of millions in revenue, at least. It can be in any field, doesn't need to have anything to do with Wall Street. If you just want to get regular rich (say, $5-10mm net worth by the time you're 50) you can d...
by KyleAAA
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suze Orman - "I hate the FIRE movement."
Replies: 75
Views: 8964

Re: Suze Orman - "I hate the FIRE movement."

I agree the risks are downplayed too much by the FIRE movement, but this is the opposite extreme. If you can get your expenses down into the 3% range, you should be safe from most shocks. The 4% often advocated by the FIRE movement is too high, though.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?
Replies: 22
Views: 2482

Re: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?

It depends on why you have to use it, but without knowing more, my advice would be that you minimize what you use it for, carefully review the privacy settings and exercise control of your posts. Don't post publicly unless you mean / have to. Don't share with friends of friends unless you have to /...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta
Replies: 38
Views: 2348

Re: Best neighborhoods in Atlanta

Not much to go on based on the info given, but anywhere along the east side beltline would fit the bill from Morningside down to ormewood/grant park. Decatur is also a great option. Atlanta is almost exclusively filled with independent cafes so I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at . Perhaps i...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car accident, diminished value claim?
Replies: 13
Views: 1066

Re: Car accident, diminished value claim?

I’ve made several claims from several different insurance companies and it was never more difficult than just asking. If you disagree with the amount they offer it might be more trouble, but I’ve always gotten what I feel were fair offers. Most of these were in Georgia where this sort of thing is re...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?
Replies: 22
Views: 2482

Re: What should you do if you have to use Facebook?

Don’t post sensitive personal data to Facebook and don’t used Facebook federated login as an identity provider for other sites. Hackers don’t care about your puppy pictures or which restaurants you’ve liked, but they know a lot of people use their Facebook account to connect to other sites that may ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 7992

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

if you look at firms like StarCapital, they estimate future returns based on CAPE for all countries using the same regression. Barclays, for which Shiller is consulting, also simply compares the CAPE of different countries. I guess RA does the same. At the same time it's true that different countri...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield
Replies: 16
Views: 2276

Re: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield

Dividends can and do get cut in a recession, so it's unwise to rely on that not happening.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL
Replies: 21
Views: 1353

Re: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL

I have a 2015 Mazda, performed all factory recommended maintenance, and doubt I spent half that in the first 3 years. Find a good independent mechanic.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of rabbits
Replies: 66
Views: 3689

Re: How to get rid of rabbits

Get a bald eagle or two to nest in your yard.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 25
Views: 1529

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

Rainer is starting to get iffy this time of year. If it's cloudy when you are there, you won't be able to see ANYTHING. It was surrounded by clouds today but most days last week were pretty good, so you might get lucky. Victoria is likely to have the reliably nicest weather. Traffic in Seattle isn't...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 154
Views: 12094

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Why wouldn’t you quit in this situation? I’m having trouble figuring out why any rational person would stay.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5023

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

IIRC Ben Graham advocated using 3 years worth of earnings to value companies, which in theory seems much more reasonable than 10. I wonder how CAPE3 has performed.
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5023

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

I agree. I think the market is fairly priced or maybe just slightly overpriced. Morningstar seems to agree. That's why I don't buy the "expect low returns over the next decade" arguments. Why shouldn't we expect average returns? I think 8-10% is very realistic and probably more likely than the 3-6% ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3923

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3923

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3923

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME . To one stock, or to all of them ? I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a sm...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3923

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME. 2-4% property appreciation and 4-6% cash returns seem about right, on average. I wouldn't bother with unleveraged properties because it isn't passive. With leverage, sustained 20%+ returns are quite comm...