Search found 6594 matches

by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield
Replies: 16
Views: 2204

Re: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield

Dividends can and do get cut in a recession, so it's unwise to rely on that not happening.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL
Replies: 21
Views: 1266

Re: Prepaid car maintenance -- Mazda -- HCOL

I have a 2015 Mazda, performed all factory recommended maintenance, and doubt I spent half that in the first 3 years. Find a good independent mechanic.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of rabbits
Replies: 66
Views: 3502

Re: How to get rid of rabbits

Get a bald eagle or two to nest in your yard.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.
Replies: 23
Views: 1096

Re: Seattle and (Victoria OR Vancouver) next week.

Rainer is starting to get iffy this time of year. If it's cloudy when you are there, you won't be able to see ANYTHING. It was surrounded by clouds today but most days last week were pretty good, so you might get lucky. Victoria is likely to have the reliably nicest weather. Traffic in Seattle isn't...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 154
Views: 11597

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Why wouldn’t you quit in this situation? I’m having trouble figuring out why any rational person would stay.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3775

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

IIRC Ben Graham advocated using 3 years worth of earnings to value companies, which in theory seems much more reasonable than 10. I wonder how CAPE3 has performed.
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 58
Views: 3775

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

I agree. I think the market is fairly priced or maybe just slightly overpriced. Morningstar seems to agree. That's why I don't buy the "expect low returns over the next decade" arguments. Why shouldn't we expect average returns? I think 8-10% is very realistic and probably more likely than the 3-6% ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3692

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3692

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a small area. I think that amongst individual investors might be far more common the case of a single rental property, than multiple one...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3692

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME . To one stock, or to all of them ? I'd say all of them. Or at least all REITs. Unless you just own one or a couple in a single small area. But I don't know any serious investors who just own one is a sm...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?
Replies: 70
Views: 3692

Re: Are unleveraged real estate returns more comparable to stock market returns or just a notch above inflation?

Unleveraged rental properties have fairly similar risk and return characteristics to stocks IME. 2-4% property appreciation and 4-6% cash returns seem about right, on average. I wouldn't bother with unleveraged properties because it isn't passive. With leverage, sustained 20%+ returns are quite comm...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 50
Views: 5231

Re: Vanguard platform

The OP wants to know why they should switch. The answer is you do not have to and if you invest in mutual funds only, there is no reason to switch. In fact SOME functionality (that you may or may not care about) is removed if you switch. This has been discussed many times on this forum, the specifi...
by KyleAAA
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Overnight near Atlanta?
Replies: 30
Views: 1536

Re: Overnight near Atlanta?

Doesn't sound like you'll have time to do anything in the city, so I wouldn't bother staying there. Sunday morning traffic should be fairly light (unless you run into construction) so I'd probably stop in Marietta. It has a nice little square with good restaurants and is right off 75. FYI, the drive...
by KyleAAA
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth
Replies: 38
Views: 8218

Re: Portfolio Review, Age 31, $1.5 million net worth

With a savings rate like that, you might be in a place where you could conceivably retire comfortably in 5 years. Not that I would in your case, but it basically means you could follow pretty much any reasonable strategy and still end up fine, so don't sweat the small stuff. Your portfolio is fine. ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum
Replies: 10
Views: 1109

Re: Finding an investment for soon-to-be-received large sum

Why not more commercial real estate if that was deemed passive enough in the past? Mid 7 figures isn't enough to do anything interesting.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I "buying high" if I transfer stable value funds over to stock index fund now?
Replies: 26
Views: 1826

Re: Am I "buying high" if I transfer stable value funds over to stock index fund now?

Nobody knows what the market will do next year, but it's very likely to be much higher in 20 years.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1774

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Factor investing is as simple as total market investing and doesn't require advisors or a mountain of funds. These days there are quite decent multifactor funds on the market but if you want to keep it ultra simple, exchange half of your total market index funds with small value index funds. That wi...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of Retiring at 52, Please Critique Plan
Replies: 42
Views: 5718

Re: Thinking of Retiring at 52, Please Critique Plan

Yeah, you can afford to retire. The main wildcard is health insurance, as noted above, but a LOT would have to go wring for you to run into trouble. You should also figure our when and how much to expect from SDDI. It makes no sense not to claim it, none whatsoever.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index funds - how do they work? Do passive funds reliant on active funds indirectly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1124

Re: Index funds - how do they work? Do passive funds reliant on active funds indirectly?

They rely on active investors to perform price discovery, yes. Not necessarily on active funds, specifically.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 94
Views: 14117

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

20% would be an absolute minimum for me but with your income you should be able to save 35% without trying.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 50
Views: 5231

Re: Vanguard platform

KyleAAA I have done quite a few as well, and specifically IN THE FUND BUSINESS, at multiple fund managers. 1) Not as big a deal as you think, at least not the website complexity. I have built such a website with disparate functions for different groups of users, was quite easy to build and maintain...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 50
Views: 5231

Re: Vanguard platform

KyleAAA I have done quite a few as well, and specifically IN THE FUND BUSINESS, at multiple fund managers. 1) Not as big a deal as you think, at least not the website complexity. I have built such a website with disparate functions for different groups of users, was quite easy to build and maintain...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 50
Views: 5231

Re: Vanguard platform

Lol, I am surprised there are still holdouts. OP, are you the type that still uses a landline? I was able to wait until 2009 to get a cell phone but eventually I caved in. Some people have restrictions by employers, as to where they can hold a brokerage account. Vanguard is not on my list, I have t...
by KyleAAA
Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard platform
Replies: 50
Views: 5231

Re: Vanguard platform

Lol, I am surprised there are still holdouts. OP, are you the type that still uses a landline? I was able to wait until 2009 to get a cell phone but eventually I caved in. Some people have restrictions by employers, as to where they can hold a brokerage account. Vanguard is not on my list, I have t...
by KyleAAA
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 2987

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

Maybe in the sense that it would tend to have small and value factor tilts. But it would probably have negative quality factor exposure.
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5557

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You are using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions. People have been predicting low equity returns over the next decade for well over a decade. I haven't seen a compelling argument to expect less than 8-10% going forward, maybe a bit more for a heavily tilted portfolio.The pessimistic prediction...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6572

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

I am not convinced by th logic that lower real returns are to be expected. Supposedly we should have been getting low returns for a while now and I’m not sure the underlying assumptions hold up.
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?
Replies: 78
Views: 6508

Re: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?

My own rule of thumb is that if it follows a different index, it is not substantially identical. I think that's probably overly conservative but it's a clear signal to go on and there are generally no shortage if ETFs out there following very-similar-but-not-quite-the-same indices to choose from.
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

adding some fuel to the fire :twisted: https://stackoverflow.blog/2018/09/05/developer-salaries-in-2018-updating-the-stack-overflow-salary-calculator/ i plugged in various data points to https://stackoverflow.com/jobs/salary for the most part, even in san francisco you can't cross the 200k threshol...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5557

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You are using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions. People have been predicting low equity returns over the next decade for well over a decade. I haven't seen a compelling argument to expect less than 8-10% going forward, maybe a bit more for a heavily tilted portfolio.The pessimistic predictions...
by KyleAAA
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DIY: Three versus One! Are the Advantages Worth it?
Replies: 47
Views: 3758

Re: DIY: Three versus One! Are the Advantages Worth it?

The “effort” of a 3 fund portfolio amounts to approximately 2 additional minutes per year. I’m not exaggerating. You’ve already done the equivalent of 10 years of portfolio work participanting in this thread.
by KyleAAA
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a 529 plan even make sense given the fees?
Replies: 5
Views: 501

Re: Does a 529 plan even make sense given the fees?

Most state 529 plans have fairly low costs these days.I think it’s very unlikely a taxable account would beat your average 529 plan, especially since many of them come with state tax deductions.
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?
Replies: 79
Views: 3151

Re: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?

ok, if you think this is trolling, could you please explain why the Kanye investment was discussed in Jonathan Clements Humbledollar? and concering these two stocks I am contemplating, could you explain why these two experts, which have very widely read blogs and many Twitter followers, concentrate...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?
Replies: 79
Views: 3151

Re: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?

. Whoever made that comparison has no idea what they’re talking about. It's in the Youtube video I posted the link to above. Towards the end if my memory serves me He says that they invest in plenty of small tech companies, it's a conglomerate like Berkshire. You should probably read their actual f...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?
Replies: 79
Views: 3151

Re: What's wrong with putting most of my money into two stocks: Alphabet and Amazon?

I am currently indexing but I am having more and more doubts about my strategy. I have voiced some of my doubts in my thread on Mr West. I am now contemplating the possibility of putting a big chunck of money in Amazon and Alphabet (say 1M£ in each). Here's the reason 1. Alphabet has been compared ...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5588

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

No. It MAY have been an advantage in the 80s when Lynch advocates that approach that an individual investor buying what they know had a slight edge over the pros, but the pros have become exponentially more sophisticated since then. FWIW, my portfolio has outperformed Kanye’s over the past year simp...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quandry VXUS vs new No-Fee Fidelity Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: Quandry VXUS vs new No-Fee Fidelity Fund

I suspect the fidelity zero expense ratio fund keeps all the securities lending revenue for itself while the Vanguard ETF returns it to the fund, so the real expense difference is likely much less than the 0.11% ER difference. I would also expect the Vanguard ETF to be more tax efficient, at least a...
by KyleAAA
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the market is so hard to beat, why did a rapper beat it by 40%?
Replies: 61
Views: 3548

Re: If the market is so hard to beat, why did a rapper beat it by 40%?

I'm not aware of any academics anywhere who have argued the market is impossible to beat. And while the market is, in fact, difficult to beat consistently, obviously some will manage it. I don't see anything inconsistent with the academic literature here. What exactly is your question? The probabili...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

You shouldn't use new hires to Google as being representative of the general software engineer population. I also wouldn't say it's "typical" at the large companies. It's not necessarily atypical but it's not common unless you joined from college at a tier 1 company and followed that path forward. ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

I happen to be a software engineer at one of the FANGs with ~7 years of experience. My AGI was $375k-$400k in each of the last three years. This year my W-2 is probably going to be over $420k. How much of this is due to getting lucky with RSU appreciation? If not for the bull market, wouldn't you b...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

True, but there are a lot of companies outside of FAANG+MSFT that DO pay around that much, and not just in SV/Seattle/Boston. Nobody argued that ALL software engineers earned that much, just that most competent software engineers could if they choose to live in a tech hub and pursue it. Of course, ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

If anyone has any doubts about the starting compensation for software engineers at the FAANGs or FAANG-like companies, I would advise that they check out https://www.levels.fyi/ and https://www.teamblind.com/articles/All, which are popular amongst those actually in the industry. TC ("total compensa...
by KyleAAA
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

Nobody argued that ALL software engineers earned that much, just that most competent software engineers could if they choose to live in a tech hub and pursue it. the problem with such "arguments" is that they are at best misleading -what is "most" in your statement here regarding 200k? 90%? 80%? 51...
by KyleAAA
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 423
Views: 40012

Re: Lucrative careers?

I had equity at two of the companies I worked for, back when I did software development. At one of the companies, it turned out to be worth zero, as the company went bankrupt. Actually, it turned out to be a liability worth less than zero. Since it was actual units and not options, and the company ...
by KyleAAA
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab ETF or Vanguard Mutual Funds (Taxable Account) ?
Replies: 22
Views: 1942

Re: Schwab ETF or Vanguard Mutual Funds (Taxable Account) ?

The only reason to use both is if you feel safer diversifying brokerage risk (i.e. what if Vanguard disappears?!?!?). Investment-wise, they are close enough to identical to leave it at that. I have Fidelity and Vanguard, but only because my RSUs are transferred to Fidelity on the vest date and it's ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k
Replies: 215
Views: 12265

Re: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k

I am not even going to comment on the fun to drive aspect (only Miata stands out). I still own a mazda ("full option")... the idea that the interior matches Audi and BMW is... outlandish :D Have driven both a new mazda3 and BMW 3 series and the interior does, in fact, exceed the Bimmer. Let's just ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k
Replies: 215
Views: 12265

Re: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k

I am not even going to comment on the fun to drive aspect (only Miata stands out). I still own a mazda ("full option")... the idea that the interior matches Audi and BMW is... outlandish :D Have driven both a new mazda3 and BMW 3 series and the interior does, in fact, exceed the Bimmer. Let's just ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4693

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Morningstar's bottom-up approach concludes the market is fairly valued right now

https://www.morningstar.com/tools/marke ... graph.html
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k
Replies: 215
Views: 12265

Re: Good Non-Boring Boglehead Cars Under $30k

Why are there so many recommendations for the Mazda 3? What's the attraction here? The engine sounds like a lawn mower, it has the worst road noise of any car on the market save maybe the Yaris, and it certainly doesn't make up for its lack of power with snappy handling like the BRZ/Miata/Golf. It'...
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9329

Re: Call the Top!

According to Morningstar the market is almost exactly fairly valued, so my vote is that the market will march on more or less as it always has with a long-term return expectation of about 9-10%. For the purposes of this thread, I think the market will close to double from here before the next bear ...