Search found 6308 matches

by KyleAAA
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?
Replies: 45
Views: 2054

Re: How do Bogleheads reconcile efficient markets theory with Bitcoin?

The EMH explicitly attempts only to describe deep, liquid public debt and equity markets. No attempt is made by the theory to describe all markets, least of all esoteric markets like cryptocurriences. No reconciliation is necessary as I’m not aware of any version of the theory or any EMH advocate th...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent market gains
Replies: 18
Views: 1520

Re: Recent market gains

Earnngs growth has been very strong recently. I’d be surprise don’t if the market wasn’t up.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17557

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

You are not a company or industry. Neither am I. We are small time investors. And we were comparing tax advantages of equities vs. real estate, before you conveniently trying to deter the topic. A small time investor can benefit from killer tax strategies and pay very little taxes, WITHOUT being a ...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17557

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Actually, direct real estate IS special in that regard. Why don't you ask Mr. Trump why he pays so little taxes? Hint: its not his mutual fund portfolio ;) What, specifically, about real estate is special in that regard that companies in other industries can't and don't take advantage of? Please be...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17557

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

My preference to real estate are two-fold: cash flow and tax efficiency. The point is that direct real estate isn't special in any way along those lines. Investing in a company with real estate experience (ie. REIT) gives you a measly 5-7% return. I won't even consider a deal if it doesn't produce ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17557

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Liquidity is another way of saying "bad tax treatment". I'll pass. I haven't found any asset class with better tax treatment better than real estate. Full stop. New tax law non-withstanding (I haven't had a chance to dig deeply into its implications for real estate vs pass-through vs C Corps), the ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17557

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Liquidity is another way of saying "bad tax treatment". I'll pass. I haven't found any asset class with better tax treatment better than real estate. Full stop. New tax law non-withstanding (I haven't had a chance to dig deeply into its implications for real estate vs pass-through vs C Corps), the ...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 155
Views: 16700

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

IJS and VSIAX/VISVX/VBR just aren't that different. IJS is a little bit smaller. VSIAX/VISVX/VBR is a little bit more valuey (and the index changes haven't changed it that much). One should expect the performance to be similar. That's what nearly two decades of data show. The funds are similar and ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Validity of Cryptocurrencies
Replies: 2
Views: 455

Re: Validity of Cryptocurrencies

I wouldn't say blockchain is revolutionary, necessarily, but it is definitely highly-applicable to a variety of fields. I'm not bought into cryptocurrencies but blockchain itself is a very promising technology. Vanguard is already using it along with a number of other financial companies. https://pr...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intel might take a hit
Replies: 38
Views: 3921

Re: Intel might take a hit

If it was going to take a hit it presumably would have already. My understanding is that Meltdown is much easier to fix both in hardware (obviously not immediately) and in software (immediately). Spectre is the much, much more serious flaw and since it's an architectural approach flaw, all of Intel'...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Vanguard and Fidelity have automatic rebalancing?
Replies: 14
Views: 1148

Re: Do Vanguard and Fidelity have automatic rebalancing?

Unfortunately, no. It's a long-standing feature request.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company Stock - % in portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1069

Re: Company Stock - % in portfolio

I don’t see any evidence stocks are at or near a peak. And bond returns are not negative. Typical recovery time from peak is nowhere near 14 years, though.
by KyleAAA
Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1953

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

It is distinct in the multi-factor literature. I believe beta itself explains something like 80% of a portfolio’s variation and beta taken with size and value together collectively explain about 95%, from memory. My memory may be a bit off.
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor
Replies: 57
Views: 6090

Re: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor

The index IJS and VIOV follow has a quality screen.
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Spain Trip: Barcelona & Girona + Cycling
Replies: 11
Views: 653

Re: Spain Trip: Barcelona & Girona + Cycling

If you have 4 or 5 days to spare, doing part or all of this hike is well worth it. You can get from Girona to any of the towns along the trail via bus. Cadaques is especially beautiful. You can also apparently take a ferry between some of these towns but I never did that so I don't know the details....
by KyleAAA
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford a $600-650k house?
Replies: 60
Views: 6833

Re: Can I afford a $600-650k house?

It’s risky. While there’s a good chance your income will go up as expected, funny things happen in recessions. I wouldn’t buy a house that expensive on your current income but you can probably make it work if you don’t mind being house poor for a decade. Your chances of retiring comfortably will tak...
by KyleAAA
Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of tax bill on residential real estate (house prices)
Replies: 62
Views: 5676

Re: Implications of tax bill on residential real estate (house prices)

Has there been any serious analysis that doesn’t come from NAR? I’m inclined to downplay their numbers as self-interested lobbying. But I’m not seeing much else out there. I can’t imagine a 10% across the board drop although I can definitely see pockets of the market that could drop that much.
by KyleAAA
Mon Dec 25, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I obtain compensation data?
Replies: 38
Views: 3572

Re: How can I obtain compensation data?

I take the average of 3 or 4 biggest pay sites and call it good enough. HR at most companies use market data from, for example, Culpepper to set their pay bands. It isn’t cheap but it’s very objective.
by KyleAAA
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going to Invest [inherited] 100k today. Need reassurance/help.
Replies: 14
Views: 2046

Re: Going to Invest [inherited] 100k today. Need reassurance/help.

I’d be inclined to skip the muni bonds in taxable and just fill your 401k with taxable bonds next year instead. Also, I’d rethink international small in taxable and maybe even domestic small. It’s okay to start out with broad market indexes in taxable and fill in with small and value in tax-deferred...
by KyleAAA
Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4100

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

Hi folks thanks for the feedback. Let me clarify a few things the cash in my holding doesn't include emergency cash. Thats a separate bucket and is not part of my portfolio. This cash money is essentially to pay for upcoming university expenses for the kids. I dont want to take a risk there so its ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4100

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

Let me get this straight. You get to purchase stock at a straight up 15% discount? Why are so many people against this? That's a 15% margin of error built in automatically... If it is a good company worthy of investment then it certainly would be with a 15% discount! If the company is struggling th...
by KyleAAA
Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4100

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

Best practice for ESPP. Unless your Program has any crazy non-standard provisions it’s probably a good deal. If they let you buy at a discount to the lower of the start and end price it’s a no brainer.

https://blog.wealthfront.com/good-espp-no-brainer/
by KyleAAA
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 6234

Re: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?

At a 2% withdrawal rate, practically any reasonable allocation will be fine. I'd be likely to invest a bit more aggressively (maybe something like 65/35) in that situation.
by KyleAAA
Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can rental home generate small income?
Replies: 56
Views: 4160

Re: Can rental home generate small income?

I can't comment on whether the particular home you're referring to is a good investment, but to answer your question generally yes, it's certainly possible. I wouldn't recommend trying if you aren't going to be dedicated to building a rental business because you'll get fleeced.
by KyleAAA
Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor: When to diversify
Replies: 22
Views: 1551

Re: Young Investor: When to diversify

I would say when it's practical, i.e. when the amount of total international you need to meet your desired asset allocation exceeds the minimum investment ($3k, I believe).
by KyleAAA
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford to live on one income?
Replies: 70
Views: 5768

Re: Can we afford to live on one income?

You can easily afford it unless retiring by 50 is a goal.
by KyleAAA
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do girls wear Ninja Turtle character shoes
Replies: 54
Views: 2664

Re: Do girls wear Ninja Turtle character shoes

Of course girls like ninja turtles. They’re heroes in a half shell.
by KyleAAA
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Time to move to a different company?
Replies: 4
Views: 838

Re: Time to move to a different company?

I’d leave just for the improved commute, all else being equal. That the work would be more interesting is just icing on the cake. Life is too short for horrible commutes.
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 7067

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

I know very little about the cost of upgrading technology on a large scale for an organization the size of Vanguard, but I find myself wondering if it's really more expensive than paying CS staff to handle things the web site ought to be able to do. I know very much about the cost involved, and it ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move to International Stock Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 392

Re: Move to International Stock Fund?

No, because it implies your belief is certain to be correct. Better to pick a reasonable, diversified portfolio and stick to it regardless of valuations. And there is no scenario whatsoever where investing in equities, whether international or domestic, could be regarded as "safer" than investment-g...
by KyleAAA
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Re-inventing career in mid 30s? Law? Tech? Sales?
Replies: 18
Views: 2307

Re: Re-inventing career in mid 30s? Law? Tech? Sales?

You probably don't need a computer science degree or to know much about math for your average government IT job. Depending on which niche you're interested in, a few industry certifications may be all you need. If anything, a CIS or MIS degree would seem more appropriate than CS.
by KyleAAA
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 112K pension- need help w/the rest
Replies: 26
Views: 2496

Re: 112K pension- need help w/the rest

Four in one index fund is fine. Doesn't sound like you'll need to touch if for another decadence two and it's in an IRA so you can sell it in favor of a more conservative fund later if you wish. I would definitely encourage you to take your wife's pension and portfolio into account. before making an...
by KyleAAA
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vegas on a budget
Replies: 49
Views: 3775

Re: Vegas on a budget

Fremont Street Experience is still quite cheap.
by KyleAAA
Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 7067

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

Yes, phone transactions are error prone. Perhaps your instructions weren’t as clear as you thought they were? Either way, doing it online is a far superior option.
by KyleAAA
Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

Kyle, If someone spends $30K on an asset, and it returns $30K in a year, that is a 100% annualized return. If it returns $15K, its a 50% return. I don't know why this elementary math even needs to be stated. A less than 30% ROI on leveraged real estate is disappointing. I only have one property tha...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

Kyle, If someone spends $30K on an asset, and it returns $30K in a year, that is a 100% annualized return. If it returns $15K, its a 50% return. I don't know why this elementary math even needs to be stated. A less than 30% ROI on leveraged real estate is disappointing. I only have one property tha...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3347

Re: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?

I don’t believe it’s wise to market time market segments based on PE, no.
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thankful for the Debt we Took - Should we Try Again?
Replies: 95
Views: 9266

Re: Thankful for the Debt we Took - Should we Try Again?

Glad you beat the odds. You asked for advice so no. The Bogle way may not be sexy but it has 100% guarantee to work. A pyramid scheme with debt only works if you are not on the bottom but you will never know when or if you will be on it. Your odds are about the same if you just went to Vegas. I thi...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

"20% ROI is not sustainable or practical to obtain for any length of time. If 20% ROI was available to everybody through real estate investing, nobody would invest in the stock market which returns 8% ROI historically." The quote by miami vice. The conversation was about ROI. Even amongst RE invest...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

We are talking return on investment (ROI), NOT return on equity. No, everybody but you is talking about the rate at which one's investments compound. Fine, don't count the $108K if you don't want to. Still, the property returns $28K per year from the other profit centers on a $35K investment. Thats...
by KyleAAA
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

All, 20% ROI is not sustainable or practical to obtain for any length of time. If 20% ROI was available to everybody through real estate investing, nobody would invest in the stock market which returns 8% ROI historically. Some of you may have been lucky. Some may have added to your initial investm...
by KyleAAA
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

And maybe you made $30K that one time in 2013 on a great deal - good for you. But can you repeat and scale it, in 2017, with $500K or $1M? With $1M in 2017? Depends on the market you're in. In Manhattan? I'm not sure but I would suspect probably not. In several markets I know? Yes, trivially. Even ...
by KyleAAA
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

All, 20% ROI is not sustainable or practical to obtain for any length of time. If 20% ROI was available to everybody through real estate investing, nobody would invest in the stock market which returns 8% ROI historically. Some of you may have been lucky. Some may have added to your initial investm...
by KyleAAA
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

If it were in fact possible to do this, then the big boys would pile in and push the prices of whatever they used to do this to the moon, so that they would end up earning the market return. It's just economics. The big boys wouldn't because they can't. A pension fund isn't going to chase a $50k pr...
by KyleAAA
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

My real estate investments pay a >20% annualized return on the low end. On the high end, I have pulled refi'd all my "all in" on a deal, yielding a return of infinity. Its just math. Try doing that with an index fund. An infinite return is mathematically impossible. If you have no money in the deal...
by KyleAAA
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

My real estate investments pay a >20% annualized return on the low end. On the high end, I have pulled refi'd all my "all in" on a deal, yielding a return of infinity. Its just math. Try doing that with an index fund. An infinite return is mathematically impossible. If you have no money in the deal...
by KyleAAA
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to tell the SO about my financial situation?
Replies: 109
Views: 5747

Re: When to tell the SO about my financial situation?

If you want to make sure she's not the type to treat you differently because you have money, wouldn't the easiest way to figure that out be to tell her and see if she treats you differently? My wife and I knew each others' financial picture in detail before we were engaged but it isn't necessarily s...
by KyleAAA
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

...Have you considered the value of your labor in calculating your returns? If not, then you aren't comparing apples and apples, because stocks and REITs don't require labor. To me that is a feature, not a bug. There is no way for me to put my own labor into stocks and REITs. What is the value of y...
by KyleAAA
Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

My real estate investments pay a >20% annualized return on the low end. On the high end, I have pulled refi'd all my "all in" on a deal, yielding a return of infinity. Its just math. Try doing that with an index fund. An infinite return is mathematically impossible. If you have no money in the deal...
by KyleAAA
Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?
Replies: 98
Views: 7909

Re: Is there any reason to invest in real estate?

REITs buy you diversification and liquidity, but tend not to be especially highly leveraged (typically under 50% vs 80% for small landlords) and tend not to invest in the types of properties small landlords invest in (single family homes, duplexes, etc). By necessity, REITs tend to invest exclusivel...