Search found 61 matches

by assetalloc
Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting - screening for correlated stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 387

Re: Tax loss harvesting - screening for correlated stocks

Thanks for sharing views, and I am very thankful for some of the tips. I am surprised that there are no good tools to find "similar" stocks. I played around with portfoliovisualizer, but I guess individual stock investing is lots of work! Here is my finding so far: 1. Index funds is a good...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Undervalued stock (BRK) and Efficient market
Replies: 21
Views: 1821

Re: Undervalued stock (BRK) and Efficient market

000 wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:15 pm Those buying BRK for "no dividends" may be in for a surprise when BRK finally admits they have run out of good places to invest...
In Aug'20 Berkshire bought $5 Billion of its own stock. I wonder if they would ever run out of good places to invest?
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting - screening for correlated stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 387

Tax loss harvesting - screening for correlated stocks

I am thinking about tax-loss harvesting on a few individual stocks that I hold: ge, BP, WB I want to invest proceeds in correlated stocks for 31 days and buyback ge, bp, wb after 31 days. Reason to buy back, I have heavy losses on these, I can hold these for 10s of years in a hope to recover my loss...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Undervalued stock (BRK) and Efficient market
Replies: 21
Views: 1821

Re: Undervalued stock (BRK) and Efficient market

I bought a tiny stake in BRK.B a couple of years ago. Since then, it has underperformed S&P. I bought some to keep me interested in tracking a "CNBC talking head" = named Warren Buffett. With no disrespect to the genius, I see him often on CNBC, always recommending to buy S&P 500 i...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 16, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Must Listen! Dr. Burton Malkiel is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast.
Replies: 112
Views: 10138

Re: Are Bonds Still Relevant?

The role of bonds in a diversified portfolio is not only yields or income but its an uncorrelated asset class to stocks that helps reduce the volatility of a portfolio in the long term. Market timers are always getting in and out of asset classes based on speculation and they get lucky sometimes (an...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Economics of buying rental home
Replies: 28
Views: 2369

Re: Buying home for adult child vs renting apartments

An alternative strategy could be for OP to buy a rental home and manage it themselves instead of expecting their daughter to manage room-mates. OP can use the money from rental to pay for her $900 apartment. She could also work for parents to manage the rental property for pay instead as well.
by assetalloc
Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If there is data available which is faily accurate since 1955 - why don't we backtest from 1955 onwards to estimate TMF returns? I would be VERY interested to see how TMF would have performed from 1955 - 1980 and it would definitely change my view, as from 1955 - 1980 interest rates experienced a s...
by assetalloc
Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much in 529 is enough to fund college?
Replies: 114
Views: 11170

Re: How much in 529 is enough to fund college?

Also I would fund 529 in the projected 70- 80% range and then save extra in a taxable account under your name if you want too. We have chosen to cash flow some of the expenses as well along the way. (Books, Room/Board monthly in form of Rent, Food allowance, bills) One may need to account for trave...
by assetalloc
Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wash Sale Rule for Put options
Replies: 3
Views: 344

Wash Sale Rule for Put options

I have a sizeable loss in my Put Option. On Sep 2019, Purchased StockA December2019 PriceA put options. Closed them on Dec1,2019 for Loss $6,000 and same day bought additional Put options May2020 PriceA+5%. I just realized that I may not have accounted for Wash Sale IRS rules. Will the loss the tax-...
by assetalloc
Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/dk7wh1/long_time_lurker_here_ive_decided_to_close_out_my/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Guy didn’t even need bonds! Held 3x equity almost the last decade. The guy you reference, is selling now. He talks about his bad luc...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

That seems incorrect - if you buy 3X leveraged ETF, you are not betting 2X or 3X leverage yourself, but ETF is. ETF assets can never go negative. Yes, I know shares in corporations cannot have a negative value. You've gone wrong in thinking I think otherwise. contributors to this thread can only re...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

Now I go long 200%. I'd guess everything is the same as before, with the institution earmarking twice as many shares as a hedge. Again, no-one other than me wins or loses when the market fluctuates. Except in the scenario where there is sudden and large fall that makes my balance so negative I am b...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using options to protect the portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 622

Re: Using options to protect the portfolio?

I've been looking at options instead. If my risk tolerance at this time is for up 20% drop over the next 2 years, but no more, what about using puts to protect the downside? SPX puts for 2 years out and 20% drop are about $100. A protective put position would be about $100,000. This would essential...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

It's clear you don't understand that a mortgage loan is not money creation from thin air. We shouldn't hijack this thread by discussing here, here is another thread where this was the central issue. In short, money is indeed created out thin air whenever a bank makes a loan. And destroyed again whe...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

The best explanation I have seen on this thread so far is that "Markets are efficient", people who trade 3X instruments, they settle on a daily basis - someone's gain is someone's loss. Managers liquidate positions very frequently. One can go through reams of 3X ETFs and one would find tha...
by assetalloc
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 38
Views: 6429

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

Rick projected future returns of bonds as around 2.5% based on current yields. But I ran quick backtest and found Long term treasuries rates were approx 3% in 2009. Yet TLT returned 7%+ to investors over these 10 years. Predicting future returns to design portfolios seems like totally random planni...
by assetalloc
Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 38
Views: 6429

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

Rick projected future returns of bonds as around 2.5% based on current yields. But I ran quick backtest and found Long term treasuries rates were approx 3% in 2009. Yet TLT returned 7%+ to investors over these 10 years. Predicting future returns to design portfolios seems like totally random planni...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

Re: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

Sorry but I was not looking for the explanation on why portfolio return is good (falling rate and bullish market), but when futures appreciates 3X, who pays for the appreciation in the market.
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?
Replies: 40
Views: 3450

3X leveraged ETFs - where are the gains coming from?

I am definitely intrigued by the latest surge in popularity of leveraged instruments on bogle forum. Past results are definitely mesmerizing several gullible minds. Huge gains of 3X portfolios such as what HF has recommended = simple 3X S&P-55/treasuries-45 where 100K would become 1Million in 13...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 6975

Re: Leveraged ETF messages

Speculative investments such as 3X leveraged ETFs are not suitable for responsible long term investments Not "responsible"? I earned my money and I am not putting myself at any risk by putting a small amount into a couple of leveraged etfs. How is that irresponsible? Is 100% equities irre...
by assetalloc
Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 38
Views: 6429

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

. Dr. Bill Bernstein is my guest this month on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast. Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri Dr. William (Bill) Bernstein is a medical doctor, author, investment adviser, and financial historian. His research is in ...
by assetalloc
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So...Hedgefundie
Replies: 27
Views: 5162

Re: So...Hedgefundie

Why stop at 59.5? Have you planned to continue to do it for yet another 25 years? I think another 25 ys wold convert $10M to $1Billion. They'd really like a Billionaire GPa. The very first post of the very first thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007 (I’m at $153k as of tod...
by assetalloc
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Well you aren't using the correct funds.... it's TMF, not TLT. And all the strategy relies upon is that long term bonds rally to save you in a bear market.... and that 70s style inflation doesn't return. That was settled in the discussion like 6 months back. If stag-flation returns, the play is toa...
by assetalloc
Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Would you implement this strategy with 100% of the capital? Would you trust your retirement savings using this strategy? Thanks I had my doubts, but HF and several other investors seem to have invested their IRAs in this strategy. There are several go-go investors on 3X leverage funds. But personal...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So...Hedgefundie
Replies: 27
Views: 5162

Re: So...Hedgefundie

Why stop at 59.5? Have you planned to continue to do it for yet another 25 years? I think another 25 ys wold convert $10M to $1Billion. They'd really like a Billionaire GPa. The very first post of the very first thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007 (I’m at $153k as of tod...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So...Hedgefundie
Replies: 27
Views: 5162

Re: So...Hedgefundie

I haven't read the thread, but have glanced at it. Last time I looked I could not tell what the total return was over any time period. Is it appropriate to ask in this thread? :) I believe the goal was to use leverage funds (UPRO and TMF) to generate 20% CAGR. This will get from $100k to $1m in 13 ...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: So...Hedgefundie
Replies: 27
Views: 5162

Re: So...Hedgefundie

I haven't read the thread, but have glanced at it. Last time I looked I could not tell what the total return was over any time period. Is it appropriate to ask in this thread? :) I believe the goal was to use leverage funds (UPRO and TMF) to generate 20% CAGR. This will get from $100k to $1m in 13 ...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UGMA vs UTMA
Replies: 33
Views: 2629

Re: UGMA vs UTMA

Hi all any thoughts about UGMA vs UTMA. my kid is 6 years old. Thanks I wonder why not 529 plan instead of UTMA. I read somewhere on internet discussion board where a person who used Kids UTMA for tax harvesting strategy, where parents moved "appreciated" stocks to UTMA & immediately ...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 22
Views: 2823

Re: M1 Finance

M1 seems to enforce the discipline of sticking to a portfolio with fixed allocation and make it harder to "market time" ideas. I have set up 3 accounts with M1 for tracking 3 different portfolios. I first tried to use the 3 "pies" portfolio, but it was hard to maintain the correc...
by assetalloc
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: M1 Finance
Replies: 22
Views: 2823

M1 Finance

Based on some of the dormant threads on M1 Finance, I finally dipped my toe into the robo-investment and finally opened my 3 taxable accounts to track 3 different portfolios. I like the simplicity of creating portfolio & creating DCA into the accounts with fractional shares. And everything seems...
by assetalloc
Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategic Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1826

Re: Strategic Allocation

Just look at the returns of Hussman funds. What he is preaching is apparently generating over -7% for 10s of years. Not sure why you are looking at his crap?
by assetalloc
Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It would take a whole month of +/- 2% daily (2% up one day, 2% down the next) to lose 10% to volatility decay. After a whole year's worth, you still aren't quite down 50%. AFAIK, a year's worth of dailyl +/- with zero net movement every other day is pretty much a statistical impossibility. before y...
by assetalloc
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Can you help me understand why you don't think increased volatility will generate more volatility decay on a daily-rebalanced holding? My understanding is that the goal of these 3X ETFs to generate 3X daily movement and not necessarily long term movements. 3X leverage may do wonders during bullish ...
by assetalloc
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy Fund (VGENX) - should I continue to hold or sell it?
Replies: 27
Views: 3307

Re: Vanguard Energy Fund (VGENX) - should I continue to hold or sell it?

Surely, I can’t be the only one in this position 😄 anyone else buy this fund many years ago and trying to figure out whether to dump it? I am 35 years old and have a lot of time ahead, if that is relevant. Thank you for your help. =========== There are several others on this forum who are in a simi...
by assetalloc
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

EM is much more volatile than US equities and that hurts a leveraged daily rebalancing fund. I disagree that EM's just volatility has impact on leveraged rebalancing, its matter of volatility in any asset class including US stock market and bonds. Since 2004, EEM has handily outperformed its 3X lev...
by assetalloc
Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What happens is the 3x or 2x daily loses and gains of the buy and hold strategy are realized. While it's got greater downside, it has greater upside as well. These aren't margin accounts. So you are saying that net loss will be offset the net gain. So it means it should match market returns over lo...
by assetalloc
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7869
Views: 770500

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Sure if the fund vanished to exist we'd find something else, but why do you think this would be the case? If anything it would have more interest after a drawdown as a bunch of speculators flood in hoping to ride the leveraged rebound. Leverage strategies look tempting when you mix the bullish US s...
by assetalloc
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 529s for kids already in and nearly in college
Replies: 8
Views: 663

Re: 529s for kids already in and nearly in college

This slightly clouds the decision, but I'm also considering putting the funds into the Vanguard Income Portfolio option (5.75% over last 12 months vs 2.35% on the SECU option). Please double-check my thinking. Am I missing anything? I'd do that -Hold 2 funds: Vanguard income portfolio & Interes...
by assetalloc
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: where to invest money in taxable account to use in 5 years
Replies: 6
Views: 1796

Re: where to invest money in taxable account to use in 5 years

Just wanted to know what your advice would be to invest about $40,000 in my taxable account. I'd look at Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio for 5 years holdings. There are very little chances to lose principal over 5 years with permanent portfolios. I'd expect a permanent portfolio to give better ret...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need portfolio re balancing/ investment recommendation
Replies: 3
Views: 529

Re: Need portfolio re balancing/ investment recommendation

Tax-efficient fund considerations and placement. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement Rebalancing https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing Paul Thank you, I have been reading up & learned a lot today. Very impressed with all the work that has been done for others. Bei...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?
Replies: 42
Views: 7076

Re: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?

It has been a historical pitiful performer based upon the link you shared. Vanguard Total Stock Market is a buy and hold for 20 years. This fund is not. Cheers The energy sector has definitely been acting an uncorrelated asset with the larger stock market for the last several years. There has been ...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need portfolio re balancing/ investment recommendation
Replies: 3
Views: 529

Need portfolio re balancing/ investment recommendation

Years to retirement = 20 401k = $52,500 (approximately 50/50 allocation) Home equity = $64K HSA = $10K (approx 50/50 allocation) Taxable accounts = $194K (approximately 80/20 allocation) Expecting new money savings = Max 401k = $19500/year; Save $6.9K in HSA; Save $30K in taxable account/year. I am ...
by assetalloc
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to" withdraw strategy - applies to 529b or retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 786

Re: "how to" withdraw strategy - applies to 529b or retirement

A 50/50 with Total Stock for the equity fund (50%), one year in Money Market (roughly 10%), remainder in Total Bond(~40%). Vanguard Star portfolio has 60/40 stocks/bonds. Do you see following simpler strategy to have same effect: 10% in cash/short term + 90% in VGSTX Years when VGSTX has positive r...
by assetalloc
Sat Aug 17, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to" withdraw strategy - applies to 529b or retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 786

"how to" withdraw strategy - applies to 529b or retirement

Evaluating a withdraw strategy for a friend: Late bloomer: Wants to setup a new lump-sum deposit to vanguard nevada 529b plan. First kid starts out of state college next year. Need to withdraw inflation adjusted $10K per year for next 12 years to contribute to education of kids going to college + hi...
by assetalloc
Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 10360

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

Don't equate luck to statistics. Hindsight is always 20/20. If one invests in rising markets, lumpsum will always give more returns than DCA. On the contrary, if one has to invest in falling markets, DCA will always outperform lumpsum. If you are lucky that you invested in a rising market, you shoul...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finally considering paying off my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 4900

Re: Finally considering paying off my mortgage

Your leverage is against all your assets, not just the ones which secure your loan. If you have an X% loan and a Y% bond, you could always sell just the bond to pay off the loan, whether you also own stocks or a house. Your gain from this transaction is X-Y%; this must be weighted against any secon...
by assetalloc
Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finally considering paying off my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 4900

Re: Finally considering paying off my mortgage

Even though this forum doesn't favor market timing; paying off a mortgage is a market timing decision. With the recent run-up in Bonds, returns since 2013, VBMFX CAGR is only 2.38%. Till last year, it was at ~1.8%. So leveraging mortgage to buy bonds - not sure what the arguments were? Maybe Longggg...
by assetalloc
Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does tax with-holding work for International funds in retirement accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: How does tax with-holding work for International funds in retirement accounts

International funds, like Total International, currently have a higher dividend rate and a lower percentage of qualified dividends, such that the benefit of holding international in a taxable account due to the foreign tax credit is partially or mostly eliminated. The option of not holding any inte...
by assetalloc
Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does tax with-holding work for International funds in retirement accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: How does tax with-holding work for International funds in retirement accounts

Foreign tax credit is more beneficial in individual tax return. It'll allow you to offset tax liability dollar by dollar. If mutual funds are paying foreign taxes on gains and dividends, then what's the point of holding international funds in retirement accounts? It seems retirement accounts will b...