Search found 31 matches

by pepys
Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 155
Views: 10390

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Overwhelming evidence :shock: It must feel nice to be throwing around wild claims without any backing and then ask others to go check it out. That may be working out well for a particular political personality, but overwhelming evidence suggest it hasn't worked out for anyone else. :wink: Take a lo...
by pepys
Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours
Replies: 131
Views: 27389

Re: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours

Rent (includes water, trash, etc.): $846 Electricity: $54 Rent insurance: $11 Phone: $24 Internet: $20 Groceries/Dining: $49 Bus/Uber/Lyft: $8 Misc: $18 Medical/Dental (with employer): $64 No car. Monthly expenses: $1,094 Income is $73k. How are you managing just $49 for groceries and food for the ...
by pepys
Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours
Replies: 131
Views: 27389

Re: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours

Rent (includes water, trash, etc.): $846 Electricity: $54 Rent insurance: $11 Phone: $24 Internet: $20 Groceries/Dining: $49 Bus/Uber/Lyft: $8 Misc: $18 Medical/Dental (with employer): $64 No car. Monthly expenses: $1,094 Income is $73k. How are you managing just $49 for groceries and food for the ...
by pepys
Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours
Replies: 131
Views: 27389

Re: Anyone want to share their monthly budget? Here's ours

Rent (includes water, trash, etc.): $846
Electricity: $54
Rent insurance: $11
Phone: $24
Internet: $20
Groceries/Dining: $49
Bus/Uber/Lyft: $8
Misc: $18

Medical/Dental (with employer): $64

No car.

Monthly expenses: $1,094

Income is $73k.
by pepys
Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1279
Views: 82146

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have very little space in my Roth IRA, so I am doing a mixture of taxable and Roth. I think that's likely to have similar problems to just taxable in the long run, but perhaps to a much lesser extent. SPXL seems like a fine alternative to UPRO, but it would be nice if there were good alternatives...
by pepys
Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1279
Views: 82146

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have very little space in my Roth IRA, so I am doing a mixture of taxable and Roth. I think that's likely to have similar problems to just taxable in the long run, but perhaps to a much lesser extent. SPXL seems like a fine alternative to UPRO, but it would be nice if there were good alternatives...
by pepys
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1279
Views: 82146

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I have very little space in my Roth IRA, so I am doing a mixture of taxable and Roth. I think that's likely to have similar problems to just taxable in the long run, but perhaps to a much lesser extent. SPXL seems like a fine alternative to UPRO, but it would be nice if there were good alternatives ...
by pepys
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1279
Views: 82146

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Long UGLD since 2014. 5 years straight in the red, overall UGLD position now up 35%. The undeniable fact is it’s a good diversifier. My version of this has slightly outperformed SPY total return by 6% points over 5yrs, lags by 12 over 3yrs and is +22% points over 1 year. I believe this is called tr...
by pepys
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17133

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

The key to small and value outperformance and volatility over the TSM in Fama and French is partially due to the fact that the "small" and "value" groups were smaller than the other groups by market cap. The group that currently represents 2% of the market can beat the market by ~50% if the other 9...
by pepys
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4506

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

When the outcome is largely determined by chance, even a good strategy can result in a bad outcome. In other words, it's dangerous to confuse luck with skill. To extend a bit, one of the key bits driving a leveraged strategy are the overall level of volatility and if returns are mean reverting or t...
by pepys
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20261

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

And, yeah, nobody is denying that using the 4% strategy in a regular market would be superior to this strategy in a terrible market, but that doesn't tell us anything useful. Just to be clear, since you are a new poster... 4% worked in the past in terrible markets. 4% is designed for terrible marke...
by pepys
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 274
Views: 20261

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Saying that the SWR for a 50 year retirement is 2% means that it will take anywhere from 8-15 additional years of saving for a typical investor to get there vs. the 3.5% SWR that Bengen and now Kitces suggest. That's a lot of additional guaranteed time 'lost' in order to prepare for something signi...
by pepys
Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4506

Re: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]

I suspect some of the people using these things have only seen the "up" side of the past several years, and have no appreciation for the potential impacts that do not work the way other forms of leverage do, or even a plan for what might happen to someones strategy if/when we see turmoil that cause...
by pepys
Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4506

Re: Leveraged ETF messages

Speculative investments such as 3X leveraged ETFs are not suitable for responsible long term investments Not "responsible"? I earned my money and I am not putting myself at any risk by putting a small amount into a couple of leveraged etfs. How is that irresponsible? Is 100% equities irresponsible?...
by pepys
Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4506

Re: Leveraged ETF messages

Speculative investments such as 3X leveraged ETFs are not suitable for responsible long term investments Not "responsible"? I earned my money and I am not putting myself at any risk by putting a small amount into a couple of leveraged etfs. How is that irresponsible? Is 100% equities irresponsible?...
by pepys
Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Leveraged ETFs vs. Bogleheads Investment Philosophy]
Replies: 113
Views: 4506

Re: Leveraged ETF messages

Speculative investments such as 3X leveraged ETFs are not suitable for responsible long term investments Not "responsible"? I earned my money and I am not putting myself at any risk by putting a small amount into a couple of leveraged etfs. How is that irresponsible? Is 100% equities irresponsible?...
by pepys
Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 1279
Views: 82146

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Can we get a "show of hands" of those posters who are participating in this excellent adventure? I'm out (for now), but this is the most intriguing thread I've ever read on this forum (market timer's classic is a close second). I've been in for a while with a small amount at 50-50. I might go 55-45...
by pepys
Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 7761

Re: Gold?

Yes, it's just a metal, but portfolios that had up to a 20% allocation to gold over the last nearly 50 years had significantly higher safe withdrawal rates than those without it. For instance, since 1972, the 30 year safe withdrawal rate for a 60/40 portfolio was 4.5%. But if you substituted half t...
by pepys
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 7761

Re: Gold?

Yes, it's just a metal, but portfolios that had up to a 20% allocation to gold over the last nearly 50 years had significantly higher safe withdrawal rates than those without it. For instance, since 1972, the 30 year safe withdrawal rate for a 60/40 portfolio was 4.5%. But if you substituted half t...
by pepys
Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 2384

Re: Why Shouldn't I Switch to Low Carbon/Fossil Fuel Free Index Funds

The paper "Market Expectations About Climate Change" (Schlenker and Taylor 2019) might be of interest here. They looked at monthly futures contracts for two financial products ("cooling degree days" and "heating degree days"), and found that the market was predicting temperature changes very similar...
by pepys
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 3079

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

bhsince87 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:53 pm
Beyond Meat's product is loaded with saturated fat. Coconut oil.
Yeah, I was just responding to the soy comment. They have a lot of sodium too, and probably some other issues that I'm not aware of.
by pepys
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 3079

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

Soy = bad for men due to significant phytoestrogens. If you want to reduce animal suffering and the environmental of posturing cattle, then tissue cultured beef grown in vitro with the much better omega 3 to omega 6 ratio of grass fed beef would be the way to go. This is an oversimplification. Soy ...
by pepys
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 3079

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

Before investing it might be interesting to read the ingredients label and then (as corollary) determine how long it will be before the PC police and some enterprising researcher determine those ingredients are bad for you? Fashions come and go. A delicious Certified Angus beef hamburger endures fo...
by pepys
Wed May 22, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else looking forward to Game of Thrones?
Replies: 90
Views: 9243

Re: Anyone else looking forward to Game of Thrones?

First, I loved the TV series. Some people above have posted their dislike, but the vast majority of viewers loved it. The show is widely popular because it started as an adaptation, the incredible cinematography and music, the great actors, the directing, etc. Usually when it strayed far from the b...
by pepys
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 287013

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Excellent Thread. One quick question. Is there a suitable alternative to TMF? My brokerage, wellsfargo, does not allow trading Direxion ETFs. Thanks all. ProShares has a 2x Bull 20+yr treasury ETF (UBT), but I'm not sure there are any other 3x 20+ yr treasury etfs. Has anyone looked at doing 2X sto...
by pepys
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 7703

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

There have been some stagnation on wages, but it's across generations, not over a lifetime. So it's quite possible I might not make much more in inflation adjusted terms when I am 40 than someone who was 40 and in a similar situation to me a couple of decades ago, but it's very likely I will make m...
by pepys
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 7703

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

pepys, <<Doesn't the employer match go into Traditional? That's 5% for me. Assuming a 7% annual return, and no changes to salary or the match amount, that would end up at about $330k in 30 years.>> Which is below 625K. By the way, the tax bracket is adjusted upward annually by the inflation rate. T...
by pepys
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 7703

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

pepys, <<Doesn't the employer match go into Traditional? That's 5% for me. Assuming a 7% annual return, and no changes to salary or the match amount, that would end up at about $330k in 30 years.>> Which is below 625K. By the way, the tax bracket is adjusted upward annually by the inflation rate. T...
by pepys
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 7703

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

Here is a simple rule to follow: if you make <50k (individual) or <100k (jointly), direct your contributions to roth 401k (or roth ira). If you make more than that, go traditional. I give you an even simple rule. Do not contribute to Roth 401K. Almost every time someone posted that they contribute ...
by pepys
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth vs. Traditional 401k
Replies: 132
Views: 7703

Re: Roth vs. Traditional 401k

Here is a simple rule to follow: if you make <50k (individual) or <100k (jointly), direct your contributions to roth 401k (or roth ira). If you make more than that, go traditional. I give you an even simple rule. Do not contribute to Roth 401K. Almost every time someone posted that they contribute ...