Search found 9918 matches

by Kevin M
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 451
Views: 65925

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Just looking at the Vanguard quick search the spread is bigger at 3 year, 3.15% vs 2.95%, so 20 bp. By interpolation, I guess I got about a 30 bp yield premium over comparable treasury, 3.221% for 2yr/8mo. But nearly all of the other secondaries I saw looked like worse buys than the new issues. Yes...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 100
Views: 6807

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

OP here. Has anyone tried to fund the new account during the opening process (via ACH) with the funds from the account owned by a spouse (your name is not on the funding source)? Interesting you ask. Not a new account, but my mom used her login (Ally calls it a profile) to do an ACH transfer into h...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 451
Views: 65925

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

The non-callable new-issue 2-year CDs at 3.00% settle on 10/26/2018 and mature 10/26/2020. I saw yield of 2.879% for a Treasury maturing 10/31/2020 at Schwab for min quantity 10 (yields are lower at Vanguard and Fidelity for this quantity). So even in an IRA, or where there is no state tax in a taxa...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited
Replies: 100
Views: 6807

Re: Ally Banking 1% extra back up to $1,000 on new money deposited

I'm worried about the withdrawals clause: "Withdrawals made during the Retention Period may reduce the Cash Bonus amount. Cash Bonus payout will occur within 30 calendar days following fulfillment of these requirements." Does this mean that any withdrawals made prior to 1/15 will reduce the cash bo...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 3854

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX

I am also seeing a tremendous drop in my target date fund (Vangaurd 2020). I'm assuming that there is a glitch somewhere. Copy your stock symbol,and do a quick google search,you'll feel better. Vanguard rep. said everything should be fixed by tomorrow. You can't check the balanced fund prices until...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

CDs are, in fact, cash. They are bank deposits (it's right there in the name) and all bank deposits are cash. This isn't even controversial anywhere but on this forum. A CD is a deposit account (could be a bank or credit union), but all bank/CU deposits are not cash. Citing a credible reference wou...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

This is a follow-up and thank you to KevinM. I purchased the Treasury bills @ Schwab this morning. As you said it was easy, no commissions, and the broker assist fee of $25 was waived. It is 6 month Treasury Bill @ 2.45% yield and tax equivalent yield of 2.60% I had printed out your explanation of ...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

"Cash" is just a convenient term I use to classify these assets. You and others are free to use the term to mean something else. If labelling non-cash instruments as "cash" helps you sleep better at night then the last thing I want to do is encourage you to change your behavior. Others, on the othe...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

I don't consider a time deposit account as cash, unless there is no early withdrawal penalty (as in the Ally no-penalty CD, which I do consider cash after the 6-day lock period). I doubt you're alone in this: it's a common misunderstanding. It's no misunderstanding to understand what assets are ava...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

No way is a 5-year CD cash. The FDIC doesn't agree with you on this point, thankfully. Even if that were true, I wouldn't care what they call it. What I care about is that they insure it: FDIC insurance covers all types of deposits received at an insured bank, including deposits in a checking accou...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Correlation with equities is related to credit risk, which tends to show up in a financial crisis when stocks tank, as happened in late 2008. Usually but not always. TIPs vs Nominals in late 2008: https://i.postimg.cc/bwYtFWRg/TIPS-vs-Nominals-Capture.gif Good point! Perhaps we also should include ...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

I recall looking, and don't recall being able to find "cash" defined in my investment textbooks, which of course cover portfolio theory. Of course there are discussions about the riskless asset (typically a 1-month T-bill), and the division of financial markets into capital markets and money market...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Kevin, thank you for the explanation. I am sill puzzled by the emphasis of some posters solely on the SEC yield in choosing a short term bond fund when for intermediate term funds one would also consider other factors such as the duration, credit worthiness, correlation with equities, performance h...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

Cash should be about max liquidity and least risk. Cash has no duration. That may be your definition, but is not the standard accounting or accepted portfolio definitions. There is no requirement that the "cash" portion of a portfolio have immediate liquidity, but it should be principal protected. ...
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

1) Why (or in which ways) does 6 month Treasury have much better liquidity than say 7 month NWFCU CD? If you want/need to liquidate before maturity, you pay an early withdrawal penalty (EWP) on a direct CD. For longer-term CDs, like five years, the early withdrawal option can be a benefit, in that ...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

6 months is usually a treasury bill, not note. If you buy at auction, yes. You can buy 6- month bills, notes or bonds on the secondary market. But this is really an arbitrary definition, as is cash versus bond. 6 months is a short-duration bond, whereas technically cash is a zero-duration bond. Exa...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3442

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

You can define it however you want, based on the replies you're getting. For me, cash has no term risk and little-to-no credit risk. In other words, I can access it today (or at least in 2-3 business days--the time it takes to do an ACH transfer) with close to absolute certainty that I will not have...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any funds that has same or better yields than online savings account?
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Re: Any funds that has same or better yields than online savings account?

You can get even better on a savings account. EBSB is at 2.5% now. Thanks for sharing that. I've been earning 2.5% APY for awhile now at a local bank--great to know that now everyone can earn that yield on an FDIC-insured savings account if they want to (with a minimum of $5K). There are some repor...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Which makes me wonder. If you wanted to pay next years bills would you put you money in Money Market, or short term bond fund. I tried this experiment, YTD MM is ahead of short term bond fund. Next year might be different. I personally wouldn't use a fund to pay next year's bills if I wanted certai...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

I am confused. When we compare intermediate bond funds, we look at their total return and not just at their yield. Are short term bond funds any different? One can only know total return for a past holding period. Yield is all we have to estimate expected (future) return. The capital return compone...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Are short term bonds really paying 3% ? I assume that is for individual bonds, not a bond fund edit: Come back in a year and let us know how much your short term bond earned. thanks They are paying roughly 3% "coupons" / dividends on new investments. People who already own them are getting the rate...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

I don't really want anything less than 6-month or more than 2-year maturity, so the index fund comes closer to what I want. I'm putting much more into individual Treasuries than I have in the fund. OK, so you know more than the management team at Vanguard Short Term Treasury fund and go with the lo...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Short-Term Treasury Index Admiral with SEC yield of 2.75% is TEY for me of 3.09%. Duration is 1.9 years. I own some of this fund in taxable, but it's only a small portion of my fixed income. Why do you prefer ST Treasury to ST Treasury Index? Typo. Fixed. I prefer the index fund since duration is s...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 21364

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I think this thread shows us how complicated the bond market can be. Because many investors (including me) don't fully understand how the band market works, it is an inefficient market, and leads to incorrect pricing. Also, I believe even the rating agencies are subject to misreading risk. So, I av...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 451
Views: 65925

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

So Wells Fargo apparently likes being the leader and went with the new 2 year CD issue at 3.0% with First Settlement date of 10/26/2018. Fidelity website is showing JP Morgan & BMW Bank matching Wells Fargo's 3.0% 2 yr CD rate The JPM 2-year at 3% is callable, and I don't see one from BMW Bank now....
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Pls remind me again, are Treasury bond funds are only state tax exempt correct, not federal tax exempt? Correct. Can you provide a quick calculations for hypothetical TEY for Treasury Admiral using personal 5% state income tax rate and 25% federal tax rate VS current yield on CD? Thanks. There is n...
by Kevin M
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Short-Term Treasury Index Admiral with SEC yield of 2.75% is TEY for me of 3.09%. Duration is 1.9 years. I own some of this fund in taxable, but it's only a small portion of my fixed income. Why do you prefer ST Treasury to ST Treasury Index? Typo. Fixed. I prefer the index fund since duration is s...
by Kevin M
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9356

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Which is why I'll be putting most of the proceeds from my recently matured NWFCU CD into VFSUX instead of another CD. Yield on 2-year new-issue CD now is 3.00%. Taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) on 2-year Treasury could be even higher, depending on your state income tax rate (it is higher for me). Dur...
by Kevin M
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

<snip> ... for all but very high stock allocations a large portion of fixed income is not realistically subject to being sold to buy stocks and there will almost always be some which is not. And for that portion, for a given maturity, the fact that treasuries show a price increase and CD's do not i...
by Kevin M
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

Kevin, thanks for the feedback. I have trouble getting my mind around these "which FI security is best" threads because the discussion is almost always about yield and the risk associated with the FI alone whether it be term or credit risk. I look at my high quality FI in terms of how it reacts wit...
by Kevin M
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

If you are more concerned about rising yields (term risk) than reinvestment risk, you could stick with shorter-term fixed income until your risk aversion profile changes, but most will ding such a move as market timing Kevin, would you please elaborate on this idea. I'm having a problem understandi...
by Kevin M
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1-year Treasury Bill auction
Replies: 57
Views: 5803

Re: 1-year Treasury Bill auction

Does it pay to sort of roll your own Money Market account with short term treasuries? I've got $150K sitting around in a Capital One 360 @ 1.85% and wondering if I can do better. You could. It would save you 9 basis points. It depends on what you mean by "short term Treasuries". Compared to Treasur...
by Kevin M
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1-year Treasury Bill auction
Replies: 57
Views: 5803

Re: 1-year Treasury Bill auction

Does it pay to sort of roll your own Money Market account with short term treasuries? I've got $150K sitting around in a Capital One 360 @ 1.85% and wondering if I can do better. You can earn more than 1.85% in a money market fund. VG Prime MM SEC yield is 2.16%. If you pay state income tax, the Tr...
by Kevin M
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

Kevin, Question for you — Would you recommend selling vwiux to buy 1 yr tbills or say bbb- Corp notes that yield ~4-4.5% for 2-3 yr holding period. I m sitting on 9k paper loss on vwiux and it’s interest been barely keeping up w nav losses. I have a long term holding period, over 10 yrs. Just tired...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1-year Treasury Bill auction
Replies: 57
Views: 5803

Re: 1-year Treasury Bill auction

The 1-year (52-week) Treasury Bill, price at auction today was 97.391333, with investment rate of 2.668%, which for me is TEY of 2.996%% and TEY-APY of 3.016%. This is about 52 basis points above my savings account at 2.50%, so a very nice yield premium for extending maturity by one year. This bill ...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

The brokered CD is just not for me. I'll never say never, who knows, but rather not use them. Brokered CDs aren't much different than Treasuries, except that the bid/ask spread usually is much higher, so I only buy brokered CDs when planning to hold to maturity. Of course you don't get the state ta...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

"If you don't itemize or don't get the state income tax deduction on Schedule A on marginal income (e.g., because of exceeding the $10K SALT cap), your TEY is y * (1-f) / (1- f - s), where f and s = marginal federal and state tax rates. So at 12% federal and 6% state, a Treasury at 2.4% would have ...
by Kevin M
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

Kevin, I can't thank you enough for taking time to explain and calculate the Treasury Bill option to me, my guess is I might not be the only one totally in the dark about what looks like a very good option. Not to mention an investing option I need to be knowledgeable about. Glad you found it usefu...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

<snip> I logged in to NWFCU and it shows only the $1.00 in the savings acct. No other payment or activity of any kind. I'll phone in a.m. Do you still see a CD in your account? If not, then they probably just mailed you a check from some sort of general account after depositing the CD proceeds into...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 451
Views: 65925

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Sorry for the noob question, but when buying a new issue CD at Vanguard (I'm going for the 2-year 2.95% from WF -- good choice?), <snip> Whether or not it's good depends on your views of what is good. I think it's good, since the CD yield curve is quite steep out to 2-year maturity, then tapers off...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

I only sweep our Schwab taxable account about every 2 or 3 months. But we are using Treasury notes not CDs so the payments are less frequent. Many CDs pay interest semi-annually, so the same as Treasury notes. However, Wells Fargo has consistently had the top 2-year and 3-year new-issue brokered CD...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

I reread the discussion, and KevinM noted the Northwest Federal CU offer of 7 mo @ 2.50% - my CD that matured today is from NWFCU - I had requested the proceeds be mailed to me - didn't know what I wanted to do with it. Didn't even check NWFCU's offerings - maybe I can phone first thing Tues. and h...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which is better CD - rates and terms?
Replies: 65
Views: 5375

Re: Which is better CD - rates and terms?

The 18-month at 2.5% is a lousy deal. Yield on a new-issue 18-month brokered CD at Vanguard is 2.70%. The 1-year yield at Vanguard is 2.55% (2.60% at Fidelity). NWFCU has a 7-month CD at 2.50% for $100K or more. My local bank savings account pays 2.50%. The 2-year at 3.0% is a pretty good deal. New-...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9368

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Next, I think what Doc says basically makes sense. I think you really need to compare the loss on the existing Treasury to the additional income on a replacement Treasury/CD of similar maturity , in which case it's going to be pretty much a wash. It doesn't make sense to compare the loss on a 4+-ye...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Senate FCU 60 month CD - 3.63%
Replies: 17
Views: 2175

Re: Senate FCU 60 month CD - 3.63%

Since Treasuries in taxable and brokered CDs in IRAs have been competitive with direct CDs at banks and credit unions lately, my wife and I have been transferring proceeds of matured CDs to our brokerage accounts, thus reducing the number of financial institutions we have to deal with. NWFCU offere...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4798

Re: Flattening yield curve

I don't see any consistent superiority of one over the other. In terms of where I got this notion: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/august/information-in-yield-curve-about-future-recessions/ And they agree that no one particular measurement has clearly domin...
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9368

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Now that I think more on it, if I sell now it would be a ST Capital loss. I'd need a ST Capital gain to write it off against. If you have no gains, up to $3,000 of loss can be taken against ordinary income. Yes. Also, you can use short-term gains to offset long-term gains if you have no short-term ...
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction
Replies: 102
Views: 9368

Re: 2-Year Treasury Note Auction

Non retirement account. Looking at Vanguard it appears the first ($25K) would have a loss of $436. The second ($666) $666. I guess, as an example, if I sold the second Treasury I'd lose $666.00. If I then bought a 2 yr CD at 3% I'd gain ~ $310 per year and have an earlier maturity than the current ...
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon
Replies: 177
Views: 22408

Re: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon

I also recall Google Voice not receiving text confirmation codes sometimes, while my cell phone did.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 4798

Re: Flattening yield curve

Couldn't see that it's been noted above, but historically the better recession predictor has come from comparing 3 month T-bills vs. the 10 year. The difference between those two today is just shy of 1%, so not even close to being inverted. FRED only provides 3-month data back to 1982, so we can on...