Search found 10127 matches

by Kevin M
Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

I want to revisit this: 3. To further complicate things, the Cleveland model indicates that the 10-year real term premium is +1.27%, while another model that's been mentioned indicates that the 10-year nominal term premium is negative. I haven't even tried to wrap my head around this yet. 3. The Cle...
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)
Replies: 6
Views: 488

Re: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)

Here's a 2012 article of interest that reinforces the mantra "Read the fine print". <snip> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/credit-unions-cd-penalty-switch-punishes-members/ This article mentions the two credit unions I was referring to: There are two known instances of a credit union changing the earl...
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)
Replies: 6
Views: 488

Re: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)

I've looked at that offer and I have assumed that it meant the terms of the offer, itself, were subject to change but I also assume that, once issued, the terms of a specific certificate could not be modified. I am in no way familiar with the laws, rules and regs pertaining to CDs issued by credit ...
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Anyone drop cable for YouTube TV?]
Replies: 61
Views: 3267

Re: [Anyone drop cable for YouTube TV?]

Was using it at $35/month, using Chromecast to stream from computer to TV. Was mainly using it to watch the monologues on the late-night shows, but a few other network shows as well. Forced to watch commercials on some shows (e.g., Colbert) but not others (e.g., Kimmel). There was a week or two wher...
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)
Replies: 6
Views: 488

Re: NFCU 40-month certificate offer question (fine print)

They can't/won't lower the rate once you own the CD. They can discontinue the offer at any time, so you just need to make sure the offer is still in effect when you open and fund the CD.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Even if we assume no repeat of the 1989-90 situation, arrest of Michael Milliken and bankruptcy of Drexel Burnham Lambert, the volatility of these things is still impressive. I was somewhat surprised by this but the 1989-1990 situation looks like a non event when plotted in portfolio visualizer htt...
by Kevin M
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 484
Views: 74011

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Just noticed that the rate at Vanguard has dropped from 3.10% to 3.0% (18 month CD rate also dropped from 2.85% to 2.75%) Fidelity still shows 2-year at 3.10% in it's yields overview page. However, Fidelity includes callable CDs in what they show as top yields in overview page, whereas Vanguard doe...
by Kevin M
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

1. The unexpected inflation yield premium pushes the nominal Treasury yield up. The TIPS illiquidity yield premium pushes the TIPS yield up. If these two premia were equal, and there were no other factors influencing only one or the other yield, then the breakeven inflation rate would be an accurat...
by Kevin M
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

Here is a chart showing the NAV and Dividend trends going back to 7-10-89.<snip> The NAV trend seems to have stabilized in recent years. I showed an even longer NAV history in this post on the previous page: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=265108#p4236519 As I said there, I do...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

Brokered CDs tend to offer about .6% or so of extra interest over Treasuries, but spreads for them are 2-3% (or more). I know this is a tangential topic, but since I happen to have some data on it ... First, the CD/Treasury yield spread can vary greatly over time (time series variation), and it can...
by Kevin M
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

The Cleveland Fed model puts the 10-year inflation risk premium at 0.44%, so not the 0% that your conclusion assumes. Does that mean that the TIPS buyer is paying .44% for inflation protection? The point I'm trying to make is that it's difficult to separate out the different premia. Here's what the...
by Kevin M
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

thanks for posting the cleveland data. that's really interesting. this chart shows there term structure of expected inflation https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations.aspx the model was run on 11/14/18. the figures were Expected inflaton (cleveland fed mo...
by Kevin M
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

At this point I wouldn't use auto-roll for Treasuries or CDs. First, one may offer higher yields than the other at different maturities, as has been the case lately (and in taxable accounts, I might also look at munis). Second, one can often find higher CD yields on the secondary market, and I've fo...
by Kevin M
Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 60
Views: 3597

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

The "problem" is with the term breakeven inflation. The "breakeven inflation" includes inflation, a risk factor and a liquidity factor. So it is not an estimate of actual inflation predictions unless the other two factors are very small . Or if they are about the same size. The TIPS illiquidity yie...
by Kevin M
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

Kevin, I have been following your thoughts on where on the yield curve to invest with great interest, but I am starting to think that it might be short-sighted to shift CD investments to shorter maturities because I spent so much of the last decade kicking myself for not locking in for longer terms...
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Money Market Funds for everyday expenses
Replies: 69
Views: 11507

Re: Fidelity Money Market Funds for everyday expenses

Arby wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:40 am
In the prospectus it mentions a fee if the balance is below 2K.
Yes, I was told that that also does not apply to me. My balance typically has been below that, and no fees charged. This is in an IRA.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

I bonds are earning 2.83 percent these days, and earnings are state tax exempt and federal tax deferred. After that first year has ticked off, the redemption penalty is almost certain to be less than that for a CD and after 5 years, there's no redemption penalty. And they're adjusted for inflation....
by Kevin M
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

This has been a great thread. I'm starting to branch out from just a money market account (2% APY) to other options for "cash" that I may need access to in a pinch but hope to keep saving. Fidelity will do an automated four-CD ladder and handle rollovers etc (1yr ladder APY of 2.56% or 2yr ladder A...
by Kevin M
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]

I wish I could find that source of historical VG SEC yields that Kevin referred to. You can find SEC yield (and price) history for any Vanguard fund on the Vanguard website. Go to the Price & Performance tab, click on Search for more historical price information below the several-day price history ...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

Their footnote #2 says the investment yield has been made equivalent to that calculated for a coupon bearing security...but how it would differ for something maturing in under six months escapes me. Note sure this relates to your point, but you also get the correct yield using the Google Sheets YIE...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

Today I bought $2000 worth of 4 week Treasuries for $1996.52 through Fidelity Brokerage. Using my formula below, using the 13th power because 13 *4 =52 weeks. (2000/1996.52)^13=1.02289 or an interest rate of approx 2.289% . But according to https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/annceres...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

I expect it to be available again tomorrow, if past experience is any indicator. Available again at Schwab for min/max qty 10/3000 at ask price 98.741, ask YTM 2.557 (same price/yield for qty 100/10,000). Five ask quotes and three bid quotes. A purchase today closes Thursday (settlement date for au...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Money Market Funds for everyday expenses
Replies: 69
Views: 11507

Re: Fidelity Money Market Funds for everyday expenses

In one area of the Fidelity website, it lists 10K as the Required Balance. But looking through the prospectus, I don't see anything regarding what happens if you don't meet the Required Balance although there is a mention of a small balance fee but that is defined as balance less than 2k. Can anyon...
by Kevin M
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

Interesting. I checked a few more times while writing this, and as of now, this is no longer offered at Schwab. If it's 912796RS0 it's still there but for minimum 100. It's 5:00 E. The bond market is closed I think. When I first looked (using the default 6-month filter), there were two ask quotes, ...
by Kevin M
Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

Today's auction results for 26-week (aka 6-month) Bill. Term and Type of Security 182-Day Bill CUSIP Number 912796RS0 Price 98.738639 Investment Rate 2.562% Issue Date December 06, 2018 Maturity Date June 06, 2019 Quote at Schwab for this Bill is price = 98.74420, YTM = 2.551%. This is for min qty 1...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hi yield savings yield question
Replies: 11
Views: 1083

Re: Hi yield savings yield question

I would consider Vanguard Treasury money market fund if you can't find a bank with a higher yield (mine pays 2.50% APY, guaranteed until 12/31/2019, but it's local). Even without the state tax exemption, the yield is 2.19%, and I think Treasuries are as good as having FDIC insurance. You have the $5...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tlh strategy question
Replies: 7
Views: 471

Re: tlh strategy question

Many people appreciate it if you use fund names or descriptions instead of just tickers, but I think you TLH'd out of total (US) stock into large-cap (US) stock. I assume you prefer total stock because it includes small cap stocks. Unless you want to bite the bullet and transfer back to total stock ...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers
Replies: 7
Views: 1031

Re: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers

d by doing this, unless the value of the tax loss is greater than the transaction cost, which for Treasuries is just the bid/ask spread for the quantity you're looking at. The bond you bought already has the same yield as a comparable bond you would buy with the proceeds of your sale. The reduced v...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%
Replies: 254
Views: 35161

Re: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%

-- The swings in muni yields were greater during 2018 compared to about two years ago (which was my main point in the previous post where), HOWEVER those 2017 swings are still fairly large (larger than I remembered) and maybe even the same when described as a "percent of fluctuation" compared to th...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 94
Views: 8936

Re: OK with AAA/AA Munis and some A Munis

Kevin, does your calculation take into account that on non-treasury income, you can take a deduction within the NII calculation for its state income taxation? I believe that 3.8% NII would effectively be closer to 3.4% after that adjustment. Nope. Not expecting to pay NIIT myself, I haven't looked ...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%
Replies: 254
Views: 35161

Re: Vanguard Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%

Let's take a look at a bit more history, the last three years, to get more perspective. I'll use similar marginal tax rates of 32% and 10.3% (CA). https://i.postimg.cc/13r11m0H/Screenshot-2018-12-02-Vanguard-Fund-Yields.png (I've switched from using ImportHTML to a script I wrote that can pull multi...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 94
Views: 8936

Re: OK with AAA/AA Munis and some A Munis

After saying all of that, I'm thinking that brokered cds rates are now competing with muni funds like VWIUX...Vang. Intermed. Muni. (After taxes...of course) It depends on whether or not you pay state tax, in which case Treasuries could be more attractive than CDs, your federal and state marginal t...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

I just did this 50k filter and PMM is at 2.36. Thats another 6 bps You must be referring above to VMRXX, the prime money market admiral share class; its minimum investment is $5M (still). Yeah, that's one problem with the $50K minimum filter: you must select it to see the Treasury MM fund with a $5...
by Kevin M
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA
Replies: 91
Views: 9414

Re: Prime MM vs 6-month Treasury in IRA

I am watching the 3 and 6 month Treasury indicative yields for the first time. My idea is a Treasury ladder I read here. Buy a Treasury every month for 6 months. You could do that, or you could buy a 3-month and a 6-month every month for three months, and have your ladder complete in two months fro...
by Kevin M
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal bonds -- 7% or 11.66%? What do you think?
Replies: 8
Views: 1223

Re: Municipal bonds -- 7% or 11.66%? What do you think?

This is just silly. You can either express all your alternatives in taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) terms or after-tax yield terms. The important point is to express the yields of your alternatives in equivalent terms, but using TEY seems to be more common.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

Rick Ferri posted at one point that he used 1.5% for credit losses. Another poster above said 1.2% But as previously posts above from Kevin M and myself show, this is not showing up in the NAV over the last 15+ years. So where to find out the most appropriate number to use to determine expected ret...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income related novice questions
Replies: 5
Views: 765

Re: Fixed income related novice questions

So it makes sense to use ca muni. But I am not sure if it is safe/diversified enough to use it alone or should I mix all above three to be on the safe side ? I just feel little uncomfortable putting everything in CA muni as there was a recent thread about the muni vulnerability. Personally, I'd be ...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

If you run from the beginning of the fund, you see a steady loss in NAV. This is not true. As far back as 1981, NAV was about 8, and as recently as 1998, NAV was about 8. Nav was a little above 6 at one point in 1990 and a little below 6 at one point in 2017. If you look only at annual values, or d...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

One thought is that perhaps the return was lower than expected based on the initial yield. SEC yield on 12/31/2002 was 8.37%. So 15-year annualized return was a bit more than 1 percentage point lower than the initial yield, which is within the typical range of initial yield prediction error. Howeve...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

What is your question? What "evidence" would make you "give credence" to "offsetting" (whatever that is)? It's a good question, let's not cast aspersions on the question. Kevin M points out the relevant evidentiary standard: capital return over a period of time including credit events. What questio...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4655

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

Good question. Analyzing the 15-year's of returns (2003-2017 inclusive) broken out by capital return and income return provided by Vanguard here, https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performance/vweax/cumulative-returns, the cumulative 15-year capital return is 1.2% (0.1% annualized), ...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 257
Views: 18308

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale

I finally got mine. Received an email on 11/27 saying "shipped and arriving 11/23". :oops: Received the activation key email same day, 11/27.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEC yield vs. dividend yield
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: SEC yield vs. dividend yield

Thanks Kevin. Brilliant response. Much easier to understand when comparing to individual bond. Glad it worked for you! Yeah, I've learned a lot about bonds by messing around with the bond formulas in spreadsheets. Once you understand the bond basics, then you can try and understand how they relate ...
by Kevin M
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income related novice questions
Replies: 5
Views: 765

Re: Fixed income related novice questions

I actually looked my last year returns and actually had taxable income of ~714K ( but may be lower this year as I sold lots of stocks last year ) so my tax bracket is actually 37% fed + 11.3 % CA + 3.78 % ( health care tax ?? ). OK, so let's just add the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) of 3.78% to...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni
Replies: 95
Views: 11233

Re: Yield Curves-Treasury, CD, AA/AAA muni

I thought the 4-year treasury was no longer used or formally calculated? Is it still used and formally used? Is this in reference to something posted above? You can buy a Treasury with a maturity of about four years on the secondary market. It is not one of the standard maturities for which the Tre...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEC yield vs. dividend yield
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: SEC yield vs. dividend yield

Why is SEC 30 day yield so different than dividend yield. For example the SEC yield on Vanguard short term bond fund is 3.08 and dividend yield at end of October reported at 2.16. Which one should I follow? What yield am I actually getting each month? SEC yield is a trailing 30-day average yield to...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers
Replies: 7
Views: 1031

Re: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers

I have Treasuries with a current market value loss, and my issue is whether to realize this loss by selling, and then buy higher yielding bonds, i.e. whether and how soon the capital losses from the sale will be covered by the higher yields bought. This doesn't seem to have anything to do with the ...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand secondary market for treasuries
Replies: 10
Views: 878

Re: Help me understand secondary market for treasuries

The yield you actually get also depends on the quantity you buy on the secondary market. At Fidelity and Vanguard, the yield can be significantly lower if you're buying less than $100K, $200K or $500K of face value. I was not aware (at Fidelity) that buying bigger gives a better yield...typically I...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed income related novice questions
Replies: 5
Views: 765

Re: Fixed income related novice questions

- Are there any cons to buying brokered CDs? Anything I need to worry other than yield and duration. Does it matter which "domicile country" is the issuer as long as it is FDIC insured and may be call protected. Brokered CDs don't have the early withdrawal option that direct CDs typically have. How...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand secondary market for treasuries
Replies: 10
Views: 878

Re: Help me understand secondary market for treasuries

I am looking at the daily yield curve chart on treasury.gov and I see the yield on 1 year treasuries is 2.67%. I then used the Treasury Bond search tool to see the options on the secondary market on Fidelity and see that there are a number of options ranging in effective yield of 2.67% to 2.75%. Wh...