Search found 8711 matches

by Kevin M
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?
Replies: 9
Views: 644

Re: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?

I just searched for zero-coupon CDs at Vanguard from 1 day to 10 year maturity, and didn't find any.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?
Replies: 9
Views: 644

Re: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?

The direct CDs (bought directly from bank or credit union) aren't zero coupon, since they pay a periodic "coupon" payment, which typically is reinvested, but also can sometimes be paid out. Reinvestment of the coupon just isn't an option for brokered CDs. You may be able to find zero coupon brokered...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1046
Views: 581566

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by Kevin M
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ
Replies: 16
Views: 3780

Re: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ

Thank you for all your responses. I currently have an online bank that pays 1.4% with minimal restrictions. For me, there are too many hoops to negotiate to obtain an extra half a point interest. Actually, you can get an extra 1.6 points of interest (3%) on up to $15K with the Lake Michigan Credit ...
by Kevin M
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1917

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

So the point basically is that the duration of the aggregate US bond market is historically high, so the downside risk to the overall bond market due to a relatively large increase in yields is historically high. I wouldn't characterize this as an "existential risk", and the M* article did not use ...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1917

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

Your link didn't work for me, but I found this M* article that quotes the same report: UPDATE: The risks from a big stock or bond market drop 'are high and rising,' government watchdog says . Here is a relevant exerpt: In the bond market, sensitivity of bond prices to interest rate moves has steadil...
by Kevin M
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ
Replies: 16
Views: 3780

Re: Dash Into Cash in the WSJ

The highest savings account rate shown at DepositAccounts is 1.55%.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13242

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

As mentioned much earlier in this thread, I find the error charts to be much more informative, so I encourage you to produce those and share them as well. Well, this is essentially what the RMSE metric summarizes in one number (it's similar to std-deviation, it's the square root of the average of t...
by Kevin M
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 148
Views: 13242

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Kevin pointed to this 2015 thread in a more recent discussion, I posted one of my graphs below out there, then thought that I should add to Kevin's thread for future references, and run a few more tests. As mentioned much earlier in this thread, I find the error charts to be much more informative, ...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are CDs within investment accounts the same as when you invest through bank?
Replies: 24
Views: 2263

Re: Are CDs within investment accounts the same as when you invest through bank?

So it sounds like it would be safer to open up an IRA at my bank and roll over this money from Fidelity, so that I can then buy a CD directly and only have to worry about an early withdrawal penalty? Perhaps. My clarification is that your bank may not have the best rates or early withdrawal terms. ...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13766

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

For intermediate term bonds, which the total bond market closely resembles in practice, there has been an extremely high correlation between the starting yield and the subsequent 10 year return on those bonds <snip> This is true. <snip> such that the two are consistently almost identical. But this ...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13766

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

For intermediate term bonds, which the total bond market closely resembles in practice, there has been an extremely high correlation between the starting yield and the subsequent 10 year return on those bonds <snip> This is true. <snip> such that the two are consistently almost identical. But this ...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13766

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Bond funds do NOT always go down when interest rates go up. IN fact sometimes they also go up in value. Dont know why people think that. People think that because for an individual bond, price and yield do indeed always move in opposite directions, since they are mathematically just two different w...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market
Replies: 16
Views: 1683

Re: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market

Today's example - New issue 5 year Vanguard brokered CDs 2.40% rate (several issuers) A five year (maturing 11/8/22) secondary market CD at the same 2.40% at .99385 or 2.532 (before brokerage charge). If I buy 30,000 - I would pay 29,815.50 +60 or 29865.50 for $30,000 face value. I believe that act...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market
Replies: 16
Views: 1683

Re: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market

I would guess that it is due to illiquidity. In the past few years, I've purchased a number of secondary market CDs for my Mother's account. The deals were quite good at the time. Oddly enough, with rising interest rates, the deals aren't as good of late, for reasons I can't explain. 5-year CD rate...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3395

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

Thanks for taking the time to put in the chart for my simple brain to understand. You're welcome! If TIPS are supposed to adjust to inflation, I still don't quite get how it goes negative. . .or does the means it follows deflation as well? The TIPS yield is a real yield, which means the nominal yie...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook vs Windows 10?
Replies: 56
Views: 3572

Re: Chromebook vs Windows 10?

Ditto. Do you have any recommendations for CBs as of today? Haven't used a windows laptop in a while.......all my work tools (citrix etc) are available on other platforms and they work well. Like I said, it really depends on the features that are important to you. The last Chromebook I participated...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion of Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 21
Views: 2410

Re: Opinion of Total Stock Market Index

As others have said, I would first figure out the asset allocation that made sense for me, then select the fund(s) to construct the portfolio. If I decided that a 100% allocation to the total US stock market (basically US large blend) made sense for me, then the fund you have chosen would be the one...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chromebook vs Windows 10?
Replies: 56
Views: 3572

Re: Chromebook vs Windows 10?

Used mostly Chromebooks for years, only using a Windows machine for tax software. My experience is that a low-end Chromebook outperforms a low-end Windows laptop, even for web browsing. I couldn't believe how slow my low-end Windows laptops have been for web browsing--almost unusable. A year or so a...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment
Replies: 34
Views: 3395

Re: The World's Negative Interest Rate Experiment

What happens to TIPS in this scenario? The real yield on TIPS will be even more negative than the nominal yield on a Treasury of same maturity, assuming a positive inflation expectation. Although we haven't seen negative nominal yields in the US, we have seen negative TIPS yields. The 5-year TIPS y...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market
Replies: 16
Views: 1683

Re: Brokered CDs - often better return secondary market

At Vanguard, at least, you have to be careful using the stated APY (that takes the discount or premium into account). You must (and I do) take into account the (I believe) $60 brokerage fee to adjust the APY before making the purchase. Just looked at the brokerage fees recently, and for less than V...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2379

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

I have about $400K in bonds in my Schwab Solo 401k. I have no restrictions on what I can buy (any fund, any individual stock, etc.). Are you allowed to buy CDs in a retirement account like that? Is there a reason not to? Based on what you've said, I see no reason you could not buy brokered CDs. How...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Borrowing from parents - what interest rate?
Replies: 52
Views: 3684

Re: Borrowing from parents - what interest rate?

I thought it might be reasonable to look for the highest term deposit rate available, and the lowest mortgage rate available, and split the difference. This seems reasonable. Until recently, I thought I would be making an intra-family mortgage loan to my daughter and her husband to buy a fractional...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2379

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

What seems crazy is that I can earn more on a 5-year CD, with FDIC insurance no risk of loss of principal. It leaves me scratching my head a bit as to why I would want to buy a bond at all and not just buy CDs. For one thing, I've never heard of a "CD fund". So people might not want to spend the pe...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2379

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

As of today the yield is 2.08%. What seems crazy is that I can earn more on a 5-year CD, with FDIC insurance no risk of loss of principal. It leaves me scratching my head a bit as to why I would want to buy a bond at all and not just buy CDs. Yes, which is why I've been favoring CDs over bond funds...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: places to live near Stanford University
Replies: 35
Views: 2818

Re: places to live near Stanford University

Another thing that's common in the bay are bidding wars. Look at listing vs selling price - often times selling is significantly higher. So you don't just go in offer full asking and congrats you get a house... you're prob 5th in line :/ Yeah, listing prices now are a joke around here. I recently o...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: places to live near Stanford University
Replies: 35
Views: 2818

Re: places to live near Stanford University

As a comparison, my current home value is 250K. Is there anywhere I could live with that price range or is that completely unrealistic? What neighborhoods do you suggest? You can do a quick Zillow or Redfin search to see for yourself, but I don't think you'll find anything in that price range anywh...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2379

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

did a search on google under the search bar for "bond bubble" and here's what I came up with: <snip> looks like the oldest one that came up on the first page questioning a "bond bubble" goes back to March 22, 2009. Yeah, bond yields are not particularly low now compared to the years since 2009. On ...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5025

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

Kevin, Thanks for your reply . One strategy is to go with broad index funds . If I want to go with bond funds only or treasuries or cds (no stock funds ) , does anybody have Any input what combination of these conservative investments might come close to 3-4% return ( I know 5% would be difficult )...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5025

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

If I get 0% return for a year , I have to contribute total 10000 for the following year from my business ( to make up for 5000 from previous year) . This will mean more tax deductible contribution for company. If I make 10% return , then following year , I contribute 5000 less to account from Compa...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5025

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

I just am looking to be close to 5% return per year(total return). I think even 3-4% would be reasonable for my purposes . You might find it useful to look at something like this: Find CDs and bonds (Vanguard) . Just sticking with fixed-income, you can see what kind of credit risk and term risk you...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Investing HOA reserve money?
Replies: 24
Views: 1143

Re: Investing HOA reserve money?

Thanks all for the replies! Looks like investing in equities is a pretty poor choice especially when it comes to dealing with a common pool of money. I did a few research and found a FDIC insured CD paying 1.85% for a 24 months period : https://www.firstib.com/business-banking-overview/cds . Good f...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for 5% return
Replies: 65
Views: 5025

Re: Asset allocation for 5% return

There's no investment currently available that can guarantee a 5% annual return. To have a chance at the return, you must take some risk. This means that you might have an expected return in the ballpark of 5%, but this comes with a wide dispersion of possible returns, meaning that you could end up ...
by Kevin M
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Investing HOA reserve money?
Replies: 24
Views: 1143

Re: Investing HOA reserve money?

This Google search turned up a few other Bogleheads posts discussing this topic: hoa savings account . If you want to just search Bogleheads, use the Google search box at the top right, which generates this Google search: hoa savings account site:bogleheads.org . With a quick scan of some of the pos...
by Kevin M
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8948

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

If she chooses a 4% withdrawal rate with an increase of 2% per year in withdrawals to cover inflation her portfolio may not last 30 years even with TIPs. I believe this is correct. With the 10-year TIPS at 0.44% and the 20-year at 0.69%, I'll conservatively guesstimate the average real return of a ...
by Kevin M
Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio

Kevin, Thank you for the suggestion. And as an aside, your name came up during dinner at the Bogleheads meeting this year. You helped one of my tablemates immensely and he spoke very highly of you and the assistance you provided him. Very kind of you to mention this! The formula you gave me in the ...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio

With a couple more minutes work, it appears that you just need to use the INDEX function to access the row and column of the expense ratio in the returned table: =INDEX(IMPORTHTML(B1,"table",7),3,2) This returns the index ratio as a decimal (0.0016); you can multiply by 100 (as in the formula you're...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio

You are using two import functions: IMPORTHTML and IMPORTXML. Using the former is much easier than the latter, since you don't have to know XML syntax to use it. IMPORTHTML can work if the data you are looking for is in an HTML table or list. In your case, it's in a table. So the only trick is figur...
by Kevin M
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: Google sheets help importing Vanguard 529 Expense Ratio

This will get you started:

=IMPORTHTML(B1,"table",7)

where the URL you provided is in cell B1.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Well Done Ally Bank - CD purchase
Replies: 61
Views: 12321

Re: Well Done Ally Bank - CD purchase

Okay, I get it now. Thanks, HueyLD. Ally in fact apparently treats CDs as separate accounts. That is what was throwing me. I've bought CDs before at Fidelity, you just fund them from wherever and they show up as holdings in your account rather than as separate accounts. I was able to set up the CD ...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: admiral shares or investor shares?
Replies: 24
Views: 3116

Re: admiral shares or investor shares?

hello bogleheads, I'm currently in a vanguard target 2040 fund (vforx) (.16% ER) that is about to cross the $10,000 threshold, which qualifies me for an admiral share. i am torn between investor shares & admiral shares...also, vanguard is prompting me to transition to a brokerage account, any advic...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3444

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

What would a “deflating” be like to those of us holding broad index funds including investment grade corporate bonds? The 7-year yield on 2/27/1987 was 7.00%, and on 9/30/1987 it was 9.50%: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=flfS. That would have resulted in a capital return of about -11.8% and a...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3444

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

in discussing a bond fund ...if something shakes investors psychology and they decide to all get out of VBTLX, can't we have share prices decoupled from the value of the underlying bonds? I don't see how, since the share price is the per share NAV, which is based on the prices of the bonds. Of cour...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk of Long Term Government Bond Index Fund (VLGSX)
Replies: 12
Views: 957

Re: Risk of Long Term Government Bond Index Fund (VLGSX)

If you go to the VLGSX page and then the "portfolio and management" bar, you will see that the fund has "duration" of 17.6. This is a purely mathematical quantity that is very informative; it says that if the interest rate on this fund goes UP by 1% (say from 3% to 4%), then the value of your posit...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3444

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

What would a “deflating” be like to those of us holding broad index funds including investment grade corporate bonds? One way to get a sense of this is to look at the worst drawdowns for the bond fund of interest. We can do this with Portfolio Visualizer for monthly returns. The worst drawdown for ...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3444

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

In posting the above, I had missed the "if over the next year" part of the "Great American Bond Bubble" quote. So changing the remaining maturity from 10 years to 9 years in the calculation gives a loss of 2.71% for the 2.8%->3.15% scenario (0.97 times the initial yield), and a loss of 8.92% for the...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a “bond bubble”?
Replies: 35
Views: 3444

Re: What is a “bond bubble”?

<snip> 2) In August 2010, Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel warned of a "Great American Bond Bubble" in Treasuries, and said that bad things would happen if "if over the next year, 10-year interest rates, which are now 2.8%, rise to 3.15%, bondholders will suffer a capital loss equal to the current...
by Kevin M
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?
Replies: 11
Views: 894

Re: Simba's Backtesting Spreadsheet: how useful is it?

I noticed that for SCV the Vanguard return data, when available, is for the Investor class. Maybe you should consider using the Admiral class? Yes, this is a historical thing, the Simba spreadsheet has always used Investor class funds (and ER). I am not fully enthused about that, but I am not too e...
by Kevin M
Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth logistics question re: existing TIRA
Replies: 1
Views: 180

Re: Backdoor Roth logistics question re: existing TIRA

My daughter was in a similar situation. Since it's so easy to open a new traditional IRA at Vanguard, I had her open a new traditional IRA for the new contributions to be converted to Roth. This just keeps things clean, and clearly distinguishes the different purposes of the money in each IRA. I don...
by Kevin M
Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 2770

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

I think Buffet conflates the low expected return of safe fixed income with risk. Safe fixed income is not risky in the long run, it is low return in the long run. Investment risk is the uncertainty that you'll earn the expected return of the investment. Buffet, and many on this forum, seem to have 1...