Search found 8649 matches

by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 38
Views: 2096

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

BobK and Kevin, and any other who wish to comment... in the light of the two groups of definitions BobK has marshaled, what would you say about the fairly frequently echoed phrase, "volatility is not risk?" Answer 1. Because people usually are speaking about short-term uncertainty of returns when t...
by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 38
Views: 2096

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

That's sufficiently "interesting" that I really think I'd better reproduce the page in question. I wonder what happened between the 3rd and the 7th edition? Look in the section on Risk Premiums. In my version, section 4.2 is titled "Risk and Risk Premiums", and the definition I quoted is the first ...
by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CDs and Required Minimum Distributions
Replies: 11
Views: 647

Re: CDs and Required Minimum Distributions

It is also usually (but not always) the case that interest on CDs can be withdrawn without the EWD penalty. Also true, but if you're using the Uniform Lifetime Table for your RMD calculation, the minimum withdrawal percentage is 3.65% (1/27.4 at age 70), so with 5-year CD rates in the 2-2.5% ballpa...
by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Location: 401k All Fixed Income?
Replies: 8
Views: 445

Re: Asset Location: 401k All Fixed Income?

If you follow the conventional wisdom of holding fixed income in tax-advantaged accounts, then it's mostly fine. One downside, that's been raised in a post very recently, is that if they need to rebalance out of stocks into fixed income per their investment policies, they may have to pay capital gai...
by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 38
Views: 2096

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

It's a zoo. Consider, for example, an actual textbook: Investments , 7th edition, Bodie, Kane, and Marcus. I go to the glossary. I look up the word "risk." It's not there. Interesting. I have the third edition, and in the index I see: Risk defined, 123 On page 123 I see: Risk means uncertainty abou...
by Kevin M
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CDs and Required Minimum Distributions
Replies: 11
Views: 647

Re: CDs and Required Minimum Distributions

It's true that the terms and conditions for CDs at a number of banks and credit unions allow penalty-free RMDs from their CDs, but it's easy to set things up so you don't have to worry about this. As others have mentioned, you can just structure your CD holdings so that at least one CD of sufficient...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.
Replies: 30
Views: 2901

Re: Bond return negative. CD or money market alternative.

Your CD is not traded on the market, but it is also worth less than face value, because you could put an equal dollar amount into a higher-yielding CD but your bank will not allow you to do that. Ah, but they will--for a price, in the form of an early withdrawal penalty. And the price (for a good C...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1575

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

I don't necessarily disagree with that - but I still find it interesting that they would suggest a two fund portfolio that excludes the middle of the market when you can easily do a two fund portfolio of VFINX and VXF (Vanguard's extended market) that doesn't. Just as simple and fully comprehensive...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on adjusting withholding for an expected tax credit?
Replies: 5
Views: 317

Re: Thoughts on adjusting withholding for an expected tax credit?

I prefer to owe a little at tax time and, given the rash of ID theft associated with tax returns, having a $13K refund sitting at the IRS for months would be irritating. Yeah, that would be more important to me than the little bit of interest I'd earn from the lower withholding, or than the small p...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to park $200K cash?
Replies: 24
Views: 2694

Re: Where to park $200K cash?

I know how to get 3% on 15K But nobody knows how to get 3% on 200K That is my problem Which is why I did not bother recommending a reward checking account to you. Another 3% deal may pop up at any time, but the best rate I see on a 5-year CD is 2.60% APY, and even extending maturity to 10 years you...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1575

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

What's interesting about that mix is that it leaves a hole in midcap coverage - everyone's forgotten step-child. The factor exposure is very close to Vanguard's total market fund (though not quite as close as the 80/10/10 mix) but the unloved midcaps remain unloved. Three points. First, small-cap a...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on adjusting withholding for an expected tax credit?
Replies: 5
Views: 317

Re: Thoughts on adjusting withholding for an expected tax credit?

I probably would do it if I had fairly high certainty in my 2018 income. On the other hand, putting $1,000/month for 12 months into a savings account at 1.2% only earns you $66 in interest ( =FV(1.2%/12,12,-1000,0) ), so it's not that big of a deal.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to park $200K cash?
Replies: 24
Views: 2694

Re: Where to park $200K cash?

Move $35 to a Redneck Bank Megamoney account at 1.5%. You could also do a checking account for 1.5% but it's the typical "jump through 10 flaming hoops a month" kinda thing. I assume you mean $35K and on $35? An extra 0.3% on $35 won't buy you a cup of coffee :happy And, since OP already has an acc...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making my own Total US stock market fund.
Replies: 20
Views: 1575

Re: Making my own Total US stock market fund.

FUSVX tracks the S&P 500 while FSCKX tracks the Russell Midcap Index that covers the companies #201-1000 in size from the Russell 1000 - so those two overlap. FSSVX covers the Russell 2000. What's more, since the Russell indexes cutoff by # of companies rather than targeting a set % of the market (...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to park $200K cash?
Replies: 24
Views: 2694

Re: Where to park $200K cash?

I read somewhere that some CDs come with a penalty where you still make more money than 1 year CD It is like investing in a 5 year CD but you withdraw in 1 year pay penalty but you are better than investing in 1 year CD in the first place Any ideas? Yes, that can be the case, but not necessarily. A...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Frequent Trading Restriction and Automatic Withdrawal in Vanguard Brokerage Account
Replies: 4
Views: 594

Re: Frequent Trading Restriction and Automatic Withdrawal in Vanguard Brokerage Account

I sold $4000 in a mutual fund; the money went to the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (Settlement fund). The usual notice came up: Frequent Trading Policy...no buying or selling in this fund for 30 days. <snip> I wondered, would the Account Maintenance/Automatic Withdrawal method still work? The ...
by Kevin M
Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to park $200K cash?
Replies: 24
Views: 2694

Re: Where to park $200K cash?

Unless you need the money within six days, a no brainer is to at least move it into Ally no-penalty 11-month CDs earning 1.50% APY. After six days you can do an early withdrawal penalty free. I just bought four at $25K each--took less than 10 minutes. I do them in $25K increments because that's the ...
by Kevin M
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100k short term park
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: 100k short term park

One benefit of keeping it liquid is so you can have it free to make an offer on your next home while selling your current property. If you put it all on your current mortgage, your next purchase may need a contingency added if you need to sell your current property before finalizing on your next. D...
by Kevin M
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6438

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Just looking at monthly returns, Vanguard intermediate-term Treasury fund beat TBM by about two percentage points in November 2008, but only by about 30 basis points in December, and then it gave back about 1.7 percentage points more than TBM in January 2009. So over the 3-month period the advantag...
by Kevin M
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6438

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

It's a minor market timing move that is unlikely to make much difference on the upside or downside. You'd get more insurance with longer-term Treasuries, if we assume similar behavior as in late 2008, but of course at the cost of higher risk. Just looking at monthly returns, Vanguard intermediate-te...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 1173

Re: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds

sjb150 wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:34 pm
Newbie question: can you clarify what is meant by 'filling the lower tax brackets in retirement' and why it is desirable?
I think this blog post by forum member tfb (Harry Sit) does a pretty good job of explaining it:
The Case Against Roth 401(k)

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 1173

Re: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds

A good alternative to a savings account for short-term is the Ally no-penalty 11-month CD earning 1.5%, but some savings accounts are paying as much as 1.4%. For a 2-year timeframe, the USAlliance 25-month CD at 2.00% APY is the best deal I know of, but it requires joining the credit union (took me ...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 1173

Re: Advice about portfolio, especially bonds

The conventional wisdom would lead to locating bonds in tax-advantaged accounts, but there is debate here as to whether or not that's the best approach. If you go with conventional, then all 401k and IRA in bonds would be fine until whatever is in those accounts exceeds your target bond allocation. ...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA/RMD question
Replies: 6
Views: 458

Re: Inherited IRA/RMD question

As mentioned, it doesn't sound like you're taking required minimum distributions, but larger distributions to shift the income to lower-income years. If stocks tank, then you can take smaller distributions or empty the IRA faster. You can just reinvest the distribution in the same investment in your...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 5439

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

What I struggle with now is the dichotomy between need to take risk and ability/willingness to take risk. Relatively low need and relatively high ability to take risk is a typical situation for someone whose financial capital is high relative to residual living expenses (either actual or expected i...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100k short term park
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: 100k short term park

Given that you plan to put it into house equity within a year anyway, I'd use it to pay down the 4% mortgage. You won't get a risk-free return anywhere close to that, even for terms of much longer than one year (even the 30-year Treasury yield is only 2.77%). If for some reason you want the liquidit...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1018
Views: 567148

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

FWIW, Portfolio Visualizer uses trailing returns for asset class and portfolio backtest rolling return charts.
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CIT online savings offer up to 100k, at 1.35%
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: CIT online savings offer up to 100k, at 1.35%

Good rate, but there are two banks paying 1.40%--one with no max, and one with a max of $5M. Another bank is paying 1.35% with max of $1M. All of this according to Savings Account Rates | DepositAccounts.com . For $25K or more that you don't plan to spend within a few months, Ally Bank's no-penalty ...
by Kevin M
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 39
Views: 3079

Re: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate

I understand that the "experts" categorize dividends as a withdrawal from your portfolio. But it just feels a lot safer than selling shares to fund withdrawals. I personally do not consider taking a 2% dividend as a 2% withdrawal from my portfolio. So how is it different, other than perhaps a small...
by Kevin M
Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 39
Views: 3079

Re: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate

I understand that the "experts" categorize dividends as a withdrawal from your portfolio. But it just feels a lot safer than selling shares to fund withdrawals. I personally do not consider taking a 2% dividend as a 2% withdrawal from my portfolio. So how is it different, other than perhaps a small...
by Kevin M
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Joint or Individual for new taxable account at Vanguard?
Replies: 24
Views: 1608

Re: Joint or Individual for new taxable account at Vanguard?

I believe you can draft a community property declaration that certifies that all property owned by both parties is community property regardless of the state of the title. This may be sufficient to clarify the intent of the joint ownership titling at Vanguard, but IANAL. I do see on a Vanguard accou...
by Kevin M
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 39
Views: 3079

Re: Dividends and Withdrawal Rate

If you reinvested the dividends, and then sold shares equal to the dividend amount to cover expenses, would that "count" as a withdrawal? Perhaps it's more obvious to you that this is a withdrawal, but other than possible tax differences in a taxable account (none in a tax-advantaged account), these...
by Kevin M
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely
Replies: 150
Views: 23147

Re: The Wall Street Journal to close Google loophole entirely

4th and Inches wrote:
Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:58 am
It appears that the Facebook loophole has been closed. Is this the case for anybody else?
Just tried it, and it still works for me.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What criteria warrants a need for Living Revocable Trust?
Replies: 39
Views: 3496

Re: What criteria warrants a need for Living Revocable Trust?

Kevin, in general, are accounts with POD/TOD or named beneficiaries subject to any state or federal taxation at the time of transfer (I happen to live in Maryland)? Wondering if the trust is needed to avoid these. I don't know anything about other state's laws, but for federal and California it's a...
by Kevin M
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 8214

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

Probably what I should have said was that I would not go too heavy with TIPS because asset classes can act in ways that you would not expect in a crisis. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, TIPS fell by more than 10%. I think it's been pointed out already, but a drop in market price normally wou...
by Kevin M
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 8214

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

That link is the current constant maturity yield not the actual yield at auction. 5-year constant maturity yield should be very close to the 5-year auction price that day, since the constant maturity yields are based on the on the run Treasury yields. Constant maturity yield on 4/20/2017 was -0.04%...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) or is exposure to Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX) enough?
Replies: 5
Views: 733

Re: Buy Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) or is exposure to Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX) enough?

The 500 Index comprises about 80% of the total US stock market. There are various ways to use small-cap and/or mid-cap funds to get the other 20%: Approximating total stock market - Bogleheads . A simple way would be to use the Vanguard Extended Market Index fund in your IRA. Or, your 401k may have ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD Ladder
Replies: 16
Views: 2038

Re: CD Ladder

I'm seeing top rate for 1-year new-issue CD at Fidelity of 1.50%, and of course lower rates for the shorter terms. You can get an 11-month no-penalty CD at Ally Bank with APY = 1.50% for $25K minimum, so four of these CDs would be even better than the ladder you're considering if you want to put at ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?
Replies: 330
Views: 32855

Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

<snip> Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded. $49k estimate Jan-Feb, and $35k delivery is Apr-Jun. I placed my deposit on 4/1/16. Location? Current Model S or X owner? Current Model S owner, SF Bay Area, reservation date 8/8/201...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 8214

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

Checking is not trivial for me from where I am sitting (in the sense I haven't found via google a yield curve for US TIPS, Financial Times only quotes a couple of spot ones). Here's what I usually look at: Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates . This curve is based on on the run TIPS. Of course the...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)
Replies: 34
Views: 2099

Re: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)

I take this to mean that faced with the (practically speaking) futility of the "serious Math" approach, an investor will do well-enough when basing "portfolio design" decisions on intuition and/or rules of thumb and/or back-of-the-envelope Math, correct?a Thanks. It depends on who you talk to. Larr...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)
Replies: 34
Views: 2099

Re: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)

What thought/mathematical process will take me all the way to calculating X and Y, so that Portfolio 2 has same/similar expected risk-adjusted returns as Portfolio 1? <snip> Note: Conceptually , I'm aware of how "taking from bonds" versus "taking from equities" for QSPIX will influence the portfoli...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)
Replies: 34
Views: 2099

Re: Compute standard deviation / sharpe ratio (multiple funds)

I have been reading "The Only Guide To Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need" by Larry Swedroe. In Chapter 7, he demonstrated the impact of adding funds to a portfolio on return, standard deviation and the sharpe ratio. Could someone share how to compute the return, standard deviation and sh...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 148
Views: 17499

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I don't know what "upgrade" means. We "upgraded" our mutual fund accounts to brokerage accounts in 2014. At that time we had to upgrade all three of our accounts and also first add a brokerage account to pair with the one account that didn't have an associated brokerage account already. It was all ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 148
Views: 17499

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

@Kevin Before trying to wade through all of Kevin's comments we need to agree on some definition of terms. "' Upgraded " brokerage account: To me "upgraded" means that you now hold your Vangaurd mutual funds in a brokerage account. Any assets in the "paired" mutual fund account have been transferre...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable value fund vs Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 27
Views: 3406

Re: Stable value fund vs Vanguard Total Bond Market Index

The problem is not that Savings Bonds are non-marketable, but that they can only be held by individuals. I just checked, 4.7% is in I bonds. So, apparently they can hold I bonds, the how is beyond my ken. This is interesting. An entity, such as a corporation or LLC, can buy I Bonds by opening an en...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 148
Views: 17499

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

They just add a new federal money market fund to the brokerage account, and leave the money market fund that was the "sweep account" in the mutual fund account. There is no longer any linkage between the brokerage and mutual fund accounts, so, for example, you can't buy mutual fund shares in the mu...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 148
Views: 17499

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

@kevin Let me try to get my head around this. We "upgraded" to the new platform in November 2014. In order to do this all three (his,hers,ours) of our mutual fund accounts had to have an associated brokerage account connected with it. (And all of the accounts had to be done at the same time.<snip> ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VCIT Year to Date growth? Exactly how is it calculated
Replies: 12
Views: 582

Re: VCIT Year to Date growth? Exactly how is it calculated

Time to sell some VCIT for living expenses... now that it is back up YTD... still don't understand why it is up if the Feds are raising rates.. Intermediate-term yields aren't closely related to the federal funds rate (FFR), which is a short-term rate--especially over periods of a couple of years o...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]
Replies: 148
Views: 17499

Re: Vanguard upgraded my accounts - angry [Brokerage Services]

I'm confused. Are there two types of brokerage accounts? An old one and a new one. Or is the non-upgraded account only a mutual fund account with or without an associated brokerage account? Or is there a non-upgraded brokerage account one with the sweep account in a mutual fund account not in the b...