Search found 10619 matches

by Kevin M
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Here's a thought. It may be a mistake to look only at the Treasury yields for the last 7 days. If the fund holds a 3-month Treasury to maturity, just before it matures it will be earning the daily accreted income based on the yield three months ago. So maybe I should average the last three months of...
by Kevin M
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Term premium: borrowing short to buy long, or in other words the delta between the short rate and the long rate. Thanks for clarifying. Yeah, that's not really what "term premium" means, but now at least we're clear that it's the difference between the short-term borrowing rate for the bond fund an...
by Kevin M
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

I said I don't want $50k in a MM because I'd prefer to be earning a higher return, a la the muni bond fund, and I think we have enough cash-equivalent in the EF as-is. OK, I thought you meant you had an aversion to keeping $50K in a MM fund as an alternative to keeping so much cash earning so much ...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

Yes, which is why the ideal strategy includes doing only small purchases with the RCA debit card, to minimize the CC cashback rewards lost. I try to keep my RCA purchases under $10, with an average of about $5 or less. Ideal with respect to interest earned. It does take time away from potentially m...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

Thanks Kevin for the great info. I've been keeping part of our emergency fund (currently $13k) in a CapitalOne 360 Money Market, paying 2.0%. I have two bank accounts with an APY of 2.50%, at least one guaranteed through the end of the year. A quick peek at DepositAccounts.com shows other savings a...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

Here are some numbers that take the 3.8% NIIT into account, just adding that to the federal income tax rate of 32% for simplicity (there may be some nuances around NIIT and state tax). As discussed, these aren't necessarily your marginal tax rates, which is what you really should use in the calcula...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I literally have no idea what the ST treasury rate has to do with any of this. You used the term "term premium", but you used it incorrectly. I'm simply clarifying what "term premium" means in the fixed-income world. <snip> I know that colloquially it refers to the premium of ST vs LT treasuries. N...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Ok, I'm slightly (or greatly) confused. I have my individual brokerage account along with my IRA with Fidelity. What I want to do is move all my banking over to Fidelity as well. So, I open another brokerage account, and direct my SS and other direct deposits to that account in SPAXX. That will be ...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

However, I am quite confused about tax treatment of VUSXX and especially VMFXX. I've read that VMFXX has a partial tax exemption depending on the underlying investments, and that to determine the tax in your specific case, you have to read some documents released by Vanguard, possibly after the tax...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I literally have no idea what the ST treasury rate has to do with any of this. You used the term "term premium", but you used it incorrectly. I'm simply clarifying what "term premium" means in the fixed-income world. Google "term premium". First link I get: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

lstone19 wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:57 pm
I wonder, though, if that means they will also post ACH pulled withdrawals early. That would not be good if it causes an overdraft.
I've never seen that happen.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

They are basically asking you to do a bunch of debit card transactions and refunding some of the debit card fee to you. You could instead use a cash back credit card for those transactions and get a similar benefit without having to worry about number of transactions per month, or all the other hoo...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

None of these funds pay "dividends". Dividends are paid by stocks; these funds don't contain stocks. These funds pay interest. Yes, they do pay dividends, and the dividends are reported on 1099-DIV. Interest is reported on 1099-INT. The underlying securities pay interest, but the mutual fund, a reg...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

It sounds like a mistake I'm making is assuming the LIBOR rate stays constant. If it drops, it does better. If it increases it does worse. I don't really know what will occur so I just take it as is now but if you're expecting the term premium to be 0.9, then clearly you expect the LIBOR rate to dr...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

It's best to look at the SEC yield I think, but as has ben pointed out, the yield oscillates quite a bit every quarter. If anyone here knows how to predict those oscillations I'd love to know. They are pretty regular, but they aren't identical from one year to the next. You don't really need to pre...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

Going back to the topic of the thread, according to this list of funds by Vanguard: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-class/month-end-returns If I filter by tax exempt only, and decide to go Money Market only for safety, I get: VCTXX VMSXX VNJXX VYFXX VPTXX VMSXX i...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

Ah yes, very nice if, as you say, payee and category are one-to-one. In Quicken/Mac, the category dropdown will show "recently used" categories at the top for that payee, so for Costco it might be groceries, auto:gas and household featured at the top. Maybe not completely out of reach...it appears ...
by Kevin M
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I'm with gw on this one. LIBOR rate is at 2.41%. Current long term treasury yields are at 2.875%. That's a term premium of 0.465%. First, where are you getting 2.875% from? Yield on 20-year Treasury is 2.42%, and 30-year is 2.62% (as of 6/11), and those are up 8-9 basis points from the beginning of...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

<snip> but you probably can set everything up with sheet formulas so there is no manual work other than exporting the csv and importing it into the raw data sheet . <snip>If you use formulas, wouldn't the imported data need to be sucked into a staging area of the sheet rather than actual rows of th...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable
Replies: 33
Views: 3447

Re: Good Investments for 2-5 Years in Taxable

I use VCADX, Vanguard tax-exempt intermediate term CA muni bond fund. That's the Admiral shares version with a $50k minimum and a 0.09% ER. VCAIX is the investor shares version with a $3k minimum and a 0.17% ER. The 30 day yields are 1.74% and 1.66% respectively. Taxable-equivalent yield (TEY) at 3...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Kevin, great advice as usual. I'm in CA. We keep our EF in auto-rolling 6 month Treasury bills and FDLXX for the majority of our "cash". However, there will always be some cash in CORE with incoming withdrawals before it is transferred to FDLXX, used to pay bills, or for automatic investments. Base...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2008
Views: 147019

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

<snip>You're missing or evading the basic point, which is that effectively all you've done is to identify that bonds were a great investment over the last thirty years. <snip> Thank you for one of the most insightful posts in this thread.<snip> GW’s objection raises the question: what is it reasona...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Instead of SPAXX, we use FZFXX (Fidelity Treasury Money Market) for our CORE position and have a automatic investment into FDLXX (Fidelity Treasury Only Money Market) to save on state income taxes. Not a problem for you in Texas, though. :sharebeer FDLXX makes sense to/for me at Fidelity, but not F...
by Kevin M
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

As far as avoiding the manual data entry, I'm very comfortable popping the bank's CSV download into a text editor and using regex find/replace to get it into my sheet's format. Or import into a separate sheet and manipulate the columns before copying . It ain't one touch automation, but should be g...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime Money Market Fund 7 day yield change
Replies: 7
Views: 1844

Re: Prime Money Market Fund 7 day yield change

Although Prime MM holds other than just Treasuries, the yield does tend to follow short-term Treasury Bill yields. Short-term Treasury yields have been falling in anticipation of a Federal funds rate (FFR) cut, and money market fund yields have been following, although more slowly than I'd expect. I...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

Google Sheets has good import functionality. As long as your financial institution supports exporting to cvs or excel, you can easily import to sheets. For portfolio management, I export holdings from each broker and import to a sheet for that broker. I use FILTER or QUERY (and/or VLOOKUP) to pull s...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

OP, only YOU can determine if jumping through the hoops are worth it to you or not. Clearly there are attractive CD rates out there. <snip> So, for me these CDs specials are not enticing. In fact, I'm not sure when the last time was when I bought a CD. Certainly hasn't been recently. <snip> The pos...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

<snip>You could instead use a cash back credit card for those transactions and get a similar benefit without having to worry about number of transactions per month, or all the other hoops, and the cash back amount is not calculated from your account balance. The underlined part is not true at all.<...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

They are basically asking you to do a bunch of debit card transactions and refunding some of the debit card fee to you. You could instead use a cash back credit card for those transactions and get a similar benefit without having to worry about number of transactions per month, or all the other hoo...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% APY credit unions
Replies: 22
Views: 2971

Re: 4% APY credit unions

The numbers are good for the Orion RCA. As already mentioned, rates and balance caps can change, so this might not last long--or it might. Up to you if the hard credit pull is an issue. I find making 10 small card purchases per month easy, and the monthly ACH requirement is no big deal for me. I use...
by Kevin M
Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

tlk59 wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:27 pm
AlohaJoe wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:07 pm
Just use "D:D > 100" or "D12:D > 100"
Oh duh, that's right. Thanks!
Right, and try to keep empty rows at the end of the sheet to a minimum, to not waste performance searching empty rows.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets
Replies: 28
Views: 2706

Re: "Quitten" - Replacing Quicken with Google Sheets

The FILTER function is pretty awesome too. I usually use FILTER, but sometimes use QUERY, especially when I need the results in a different order than in the source columns. However, you can also get results in a different order with FILTER by using sets.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Good evening everyone, perhaps someone can help me out. I have my brokerage set up to deposit my whole check, the brokerage is the OD account for my CMA which has a zero balance. Does the money in the brokerage have to be in a FIDO fund to liquidate for overdrafts? I was also under the assumption t...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Good evening everyone, perhaps someone can help me out. I have my brokerage set up to deposit my whole check, the brokerage is the OD account for my CMA which has a zero balance. Does the money in the brokerage have to be in a FIDO fund to liquidate for overdrafts? I was also under the assumption t...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Low expense ratio and nearly inverted yield curve It appears that you didn't actually read the original post. The expense ratio was factored into the analysis, and I am not comparing the yield to longer-maturity securities or funds, so inverted yield curve is irrelevant to the analysis posted. The ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Based on the varying maturities, credit quality, and sectors listed at Morningstar's page for the VMFXX fund, there are longer term bonds and other investments that spice up the portfolio. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VMFXX®ion=usa&culture=en_US VMFXX, Vanguard Federal MM fun...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Here is Note 1 from page 41 of the Semiannual Report dated February 28, 2019. "Represents annualized yield at date of purchase for discount securities, and coupon for coupon-bearing securities." All T Bills are discount securities, so this simply says that they're showing the yields at date of purc...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9249

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

Just curious as to why Small Caps are falling when the rest of the market is going up? Because that's what they do...... sometimes. :shock: But not most of the time! Since June 2000 through May 2019, longest period available, iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR), which tracks the S&P 600, has a cor...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/BNDX/portfolio-holdings Sort by coupon rate and you will find lots of holdings of 0% coupon bonds. Nothing negative though (yet). Coupon rate is not yield (to maturity). Average coupon rate of the fund was 2.1% as of 4/30/2019, but yield to maturi...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/BNDX/portfolio-holdings Sort by coupon rate and you will find lots of holdings of 0% coupon bonds. Nothing negative though (yet). Coupon rate is not yield (to maturity). Average coupon rate of the fund was 2.1% as of 4/30/2019, but yield to maturi...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9249

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

As Bogleheads, this is exactly the kind of noise we are encouraged to tune out.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Google spreadsheet Ibond price code acting weird
Replies: 26
Views: 4001

Re: Google sheets - get info for I-bonds

Kevin, The code you posted above works great. In particular the fact that it passes the error message through into the spreadsheet helps a lot. I don't think it's worth pursuing getting that whole table, as your code plus a little math gets me all of the values that I need. Glad it works for you! N...
by Kevin M
Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9249

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

Telltale charts are useful to evaluate relative performance. A telltale is created by dividing the cumulative growth of the fund of interest by the cumulative growth of a reference fund or index. When the line is going up, the fund of interest is growing more than the reference, and vice versa. Belo...
by Kevin M
Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Wow. I just finished reading this whole thread. Thanks to all who gave substantive responses. I've had a Fidelity Cash Management Account for over a year (opened when I opened a regular brokerage account), but hadn't put a penny into it. I have banking accounts at several institutions: out-of-state...
by Kevin M
Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

Since transitioning to using the ATM/debit card with my fidelity brokerage account , I've noticed that an ATM withdrawal doesn't post to the account for 2-3 business days. Years ago when I used the ATM card with the fidelity CMA account , I thought it posted same day. Curious if others have noticed...
by Kevin M
Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity as a one stop shop
Replies: 725
Views: 76393

Re: Fidelity as a one stop shop

On a related note, I had something kind of funny happen. I had $X in SPRXX and $0 in my FDIC account in my CMA. I entered an order to buy $X of FDLXX, thinking it would pull $X from SPRXX. Instead, it pulled $X right back out of FDLXX, so I ended up still owning $X of SPRXX. I realized that to do wh...
by Kevin M
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Maybe they stretched the maturity by a bit to get a tiny more yield as the rates began to drop? If so, we’ll be seeing the reduction very soon. As they can’t extend it much more than a few weeks with liquidity requirements. I don't think that could explain it. The 6-month yield was only 2.22% as of...
by Kevin M
Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9249

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

Different definitions of small-cap and large-cap make a significant difference. As of now, Vanguard small-cap ETF, VB, is about 7.9% below its 52-week high, while Vanguard large-cap, VV, is about 2.2% below its 52-week high. So the difference is not nearly as large as for your S&P numbers. Looking a...
by Kevin M
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 22
Views: 5244

Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

SEC 7-day yield of Vanguard Treasury Money Market fund (VUSXX) is 2.33% as of 6/6/2019. That's only down 3 basis points from the high of 2.36%, last seen on 4/5/2019. The fund holds Treasury Bills in the 1-month to 3-month maturity range, with average maturity of 43 days and weighted average life of...
by Kevin M
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11008
Views: 1916912

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I predict the market's "bad news = good news" assessment that a terrible jobs report is actually good news may not last the day. I doubt it. Today's news seems to make it more likely that the Fed will at least halt rate hikes for a while. Movement in short-term Treasury yields lately indicates that...