Search found 1637 matches

by Snowjob
Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 135
Views: 20891

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

That's precisely the rub (and the rut). I'm not working to support a more lavish lifestyle or to buy stuff. I'm working to grow my portfolio. But if one's portfolio has reached the threshold that you describe, where additional working/saving is small, compared to market-driven growth (or decline!), then the impetus to work, wanes. I check the news, learning that the market has risen 1% that day... a number more or less tracked by my portfolio. How long would it take, how many months of working my W2, just to gross that amount, let alone to save it? The next day, the market falls 1%. Again: how many months of work would it take, to make good the [hopefully temporary] losses, through additional sedulous effort at saving? Beyond some point, i...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 135
Views: 20891

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

.... For a thought experiment, consider two people, A and B. Person-A hurries to graduate from college and begins a professional career at age 20, saves aggressively and invests BH-style. A works for a solid 30 years, retiring - or attempting to retire! - at 50. Person-B putters around and has a jolly fantastic time, until age 37. He barely earns anything, and when he does, 100% gets spent. Then at age 37, B awakes, has an epiphany, and puts nose to grindstone... proceeding to work for 25 years. At age 62, B retires. Note that A, works 5 years longer than B. But B, being more of a canonical age for retirement, is in better shape, regarding the accepted 3-legged stool. Person-A receives little reward for alacrity and good preparation while ...
by Snowjob
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 135
Views: 20891

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

I scanned all the prior replies but didn't see anyone saying "have you run the numbers if you stop working to see what SS benefit might be with such an early work stoppage"? Any pension? Spouses contribution to future pension or SS income, and her intentions re work? Of course, we were raised with the notion of the three stool approach to retirement planning: pension, Social Security and savings/investments. ... Our biggest expense was medical insurance premiums pre Medicare age. 12k to cover us both per year. Quite a few other factors besides the portfolio balance to consider IMHO. This hasn't been brought up because OP is not looking to retire nor did they ask for opinion on retiring. They simply asked about generic thoughts re...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 19, 2024 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?
Replies: 135
Views: 20891

Re: 20-30X income, is that the "retirement rut"?

Say you are in your 40s with a $100,000 salary with a NW of $2,000,000 or 20x Income to NW ratio You are not quite motivated to work harder in your career (e.g. staying in the office until 8pm) because your investments daily fluctuations is more than your salary. You are comfortable enough to give your boss/upper management the middle finger if he pulls a fast one on you. However, you are not quite ready to retire early yet as in today's economy, $2million doesn't carry your that far, especially in HCOL cities like NY or SF. Is that a career to retirement "rut"? I've been struggling this year with similar ratios / age. I think at some point you realize that there no amount of incremental effort you can do to realistically move th...
by Snowjob
Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rethinking "Keep Your Car for Ten Years"
Replies: 466
Views: 49612

Re: Rethinking "Keep Your Car for Ten Years"

When the quality of a product is good, maintenance becomes a losing proposition.

My last car had 0 maintenance work and got 300k miles -- current car will have less due to work commute changes but no intention of changing habits.

Just watch your consumables, -- fluids, breaks, tires. Even oil I change about half as often as recommended.
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 11, 2023 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Optimization & can we retire in 2 years.
Replies: 12
Views: 3036

Re: Optimization & can we retire in 2 years.

Looks good to me, especially given the future social security / pension / potential inheritance coming your way. If you are really concerned, you can always work one more year and earmark the excess savings for a deferred annuity to add yet another layer of safety. I think my only concern might be your ages -- your both young, do you think you will stick to that budget as early retirees? That's a lot of time on your hands for two young able bodied people. Especially if you are planning on maintaining your current budget, that's not a lot of wiggle room, though you could probably up your withdrawal rate a bit. I'm personally targeting a 3% withdrawal rate as well. No pension, but I'll have social security and possibly a low six figure inheri...
by Snowjob
Sun May 14, 2023 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit
Replies: 5
Views: 1448

Re: QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit

HueyLD wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:41 am ...
So, if the value of QLAC increases, you will be allowed to buy more QLAC up to the aggregate dollar limit of $200k and of course the purchase limit is subject to change by future legislation. And it is logical to ask the insurance company to provide the value of your QLAC.
...
Wow I'm an idiot, that's the answer. Insurance companies can always provide the present value of the annuity and you can use that to see if you have any room under the cap for future purchases.

Thanks!
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit
Replies: 5
Views: 1448

Re: QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit

It would appear from an internet search that the $200,000 is a hard limit - it covers all QLACs for a given individual. The upside (if for some reason one would want to purchase multiple QLACs over time) is that SECURE 2.0 indexes the $200,000 to inflation, so in 10 years the limit may well be significantly higher and allow an additional purchase. For general QLAC analysis, I recommend this old-but-thorough Kitces article here: https://www.kitces.com/blog/why-a-qlac-in-an-ira-is-a-terrible-way-to-defer-the-required-minimum-distribution-rmd-obligation/ I guess my question is, if I bought a 150k deferred annuity and the interest rates go back to near zero, that annuity could very well be worth substantially more, perhaps more than 200k. When...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit
Replies: 5
Views: 1448

QLAC -- How do I think about the 200k Limit

So I started to think about QLACs again now that that rules have simplified -- no more "25% of your retirement account" restriction.

Purchasing a 200,000 deferred annuity in a single shot seems pretty black and white -- your under the 200k cap.

However, If you plan on purchasing multiple contracts over time, is it only the sum of the prior outlays that count 200k cap or do you need to evaluate the present value of the prior purchased annuities before pulling the trigger on next one?
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 528
Views: 55071

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

Man 10 years later this thread is still alive and well.

All I know is, I'm glad I didn't start laddering Tips & I-Bonds a decade ago, and I wish I hadn't stuck it out with international as long as I did.

Worshiping at the alter of value turned out to be buying the early 2000s hype. Moderate amounts of leverage worked great though.


15 years later, my solution? Stay broad, stay simple, stay long.

Most of us probably don't need to depart much from allocations in a target date fund.
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 30, 2022 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How do you stay positive when the goal posts keep moving?]
Replies: 87
Views: 8757

Re: [How do you stay positive when the goal posts keep moving?]

CyclingDuo wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:12 am
...

Image

...

CyclingDuo
Just wanted to thank you for the very thoughtful response and give a shout out to one of the coolest visuals I've seen (Kitsces). I'm about halfway there (late 30s/early 40s) and definitely am over spending on the house, but I'm off setting this largely by not having that "parental expense" stretch!
by Snowjob
Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "If you don't have at least a million dollars in your 401k by 40..."
Replies: 79
Views: 9581

Re: "If you don't have at least a million dollars in your 401k by 40..."

I definitely did what I could to save what I could — of course back then, 15 years ago, everyone kept raving about the benefits of international diversification and value investing (usually with a smallcap tilt). I can tell you value tilts and a good bunch of international definitely hurt my returns relative just holding the S&P. Never mind the old age in bonds adage. I certainly wish I could go back and optimize my allocation. Don’t get me wrong I’ve done very well, but man to have just put it 100% vti and never looked back would have been much better... lol. Thankfully if you save all you can you’ll typically get far enough ahead of the pack that even a suboptimal allocation will still give you a really nice nest egg. If anything it r...
by Snowjob
Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 6516

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

I 100% believe this to be a trend that continues. That much excess capital from around the world chasing a limited supply of investable assets driving normal PEs higher over the long haul. Your foreign ownership note is also spot on, although what I do scratch my head at is the impact of sovereign wealth funds. I’m curious how much of the public equity markets could ultimately be gobbled up by nations with endowments — oil nations like Norway and Saudi come to mind as the look to replace national oil income with investments. At some point do enough countries get in the game where everything just starts getting gobbled up via country ownership? Those sovereign wealth funds are already invested in financial markets, and other assets (much li...
by Snowjob
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 6516

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

I 100% believe this to be a trend that continues. That much excess capital from around the world chasing a limited supply of investable assets driving normal PEs higher over the long haul. Your foreign ownership note is also spot on, although what I do scratch my head at is the impact of sovereign wealth funds. I’m curious how much of the public equity markets could ultimately be gobbled up by nations with endowments — oil nations like Norway and Saudi come to mind as the look to replace national oil income with investments. At some point do enough countries get in the game where everything just starts getting gobbled up via country ownership? Those sovereign wealth funds are already invested in financial markets, and other assets (much li...
by Snowjob
Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 6516

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

As an Australian I have about 60 percent international stocks and 30 percent local stocks. As they are cap weighted ETFs half my international stocks are US stocks. I think in every country in the world there has been the mantra about reducing home bias in stock investments and accordingly the worlds middle class from New Delhi to Norway have been busy buying international stocks with much of the money flow going to the US which is the worlds biggest stock market. Interestingly those big US names like Google, Facebook, Coca Cola, Apple etc are also huge in my country and elsewhere so when I buy some US stocks I am also buying access to a bit of the profit they are making where I live. Interestingly, there are Australian companies that coul...
by Snowjob
Thu May 13, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I See no Path Forward Financially
Replies: 101
Views: 14694

Re: I See no Path Forward Financially

Hi all, I’m 28 years old... Total Debt = $30,661.55... Total Monthly Expenses: $2,620.00 So based on my $1,700 week and four paychecks a month I’m at: $6,800.00 in pay - $2,620.00 in expenses = $4,180.00 leftover Maybe I’m overthinking this. Age -- holy crap your young man, I'm 38 and I'd still trade places with you in a heartbeat. Youth / time is always our most valuable asset. Debt -- completely reasonable for anyone your age, probably way less then average considering you have a car and a degree. Income -- dude you make 140k a year (1700 after tax a week) that puts you in the top 3-5% of income earners for your age. Expenses -- other than expensive car insurance that not to shabby, frankly having that much disposable income is awesome. ...
by Snowjob
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 134
Views: 39322

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

longinvest wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:51 pm This thread is about reasonably quantifying the "cost" of using a 60:40 portfolio during the accumulation period.
Honestly -- great topic -- and one that should be relevant to a lot of people after the last 12 year bull run. One topic comes up all the time here these days is "what do I do when I've won the game?" Honestly I'd point them to your work here. Many of those people probably got there with a heavier stock allocation and because of they were rewarded for this, may not be keen on reducing it. However the math here may show that the 'cost' of derisking via a more conservative asset allocation may be less than they thought
by Snowjob
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement
Replies: 43
Views: 9108

Re: J.P. Morgan 2021 Guide to Retirement

Wow brilliant
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to buy ITOT
Replies: 26
Views: 4091

Re: Where to buy ITOT

nisiprius wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:40 pm For the US stock allocation in a portfolio, I use, and Bogleheads commonly suggest, "a lost-cost total stock market index fund."

ITOT and VTI are both low-cost total stock market index funds. I believe they are virtually interchangeable.
...
I think up through the early 2000's it tracked a sub set of the total stock market. A combination of S&P 500, midcap 400 and small 600 -- hence the TOT 1500. I think the appeal was using those quality screens to eliminate junk from the total market, but its since converted to a total market. I remember checking it out back in the day. Of course its been a while so may be miss-remembering but the chart below doesn't lie. its basically the same thing now.
by Snowjob
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did I pick this butternut squash too early?
Replies: 13
Views: 3522

Re: Did I pick this butternut squash too early?

LOL this thread just made me remember I bought and stored few extra in my basement as part of covid preparations in march !

I know they keep a long time I guess I'll be trying them out soon...
by Snowjob
Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whose being naughty and keeping some dry powder around?
Replies: 109
Views: 10931

Re: Whose being naughty and keeping some dry powder around?

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:46 am My only naughty action was moving my 35% S&P500 stake to Large-value. Other 65% was already in global small/deep-value. Cash is too far for me.
Hell of a value weighting. Are you concerned at all about under-performing a S&P benchmark at all? I know value is cheap but sometimes it can mean obsolete, and I know personally I cant deal with a ton of negative tracking error so I don't do sector funds or tilts anymore.
by Snowjob
Wed May 27, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 15144

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

At the top of every dollar it already says “FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE” Not sure what you’re implying is new here... Two very different statements, no? If you don’t trust the Federal Reserve which has printed our money for over 100 years I’m not sure why you would trust anything else like bonds or stocks. My apologies, but I fear we are talking past one another. My point is simply that absent the remarkable intervention by the Fed, we’d be having a very different discussion today. And given the Feds actions, both it’s extent and it’s size, the implications for our economy and for the dollar going forward is not at all certain. At least that is the case for me. The Fed’s job is to maintain stable employment and price levels. It’s purpose is exact...
by Snowjob
Fri May 22, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 14052

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do? Default 80/20. Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks. At -10% I'm at 85/15 At -20% I'm at 90/10 At -30% I'm at 95/5 At -40% I'm at 100/0 I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20. It's written in my IPS. This morning I executed the second tranche. It's easy to do at 34. Don't know if I'd want to do this at 54. Although I'd have plenty more bonds at 54. I executed the 3rd tranche on Friday March 20th. At that time I was 95/5. Yesterday I capitulated and sold all quarter-million dollars of our life savings - my 403b - into VMFXX (Vanguard Money Market fund). I hit click at 3:55pm at work. Watching the stock market go up was harder then watching it go d...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 71
Views: 9047

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments. What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of their lives each year commuting to work? 29% of the workforce can get their work done from home. If a third of them don't have a reason to go back to work, or can do so in a limited manner, how does this impact commercial real estate? The real scary implication of that is why not just then outsource those people for pennies on the dollar to India if you don’t need a physical presence ? That has already happened for many positions where human int...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 71
Views: 9047

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments. What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of their lives each year commuting to work? 29% of the workforce can get their work done from home. If a third of them don't have a reason to go back to work, or can do so in a limited manner, how does this impact commercial real estate? The real scary implication of that is why not just then outsource those people for pennies on the dollar to India if you don’t need a physical presence ? Outsourcing where possible to save money has long been the g...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 71
Views: 9047

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

unclescrooge wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:43 am
BogleBoogie wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:37 pm Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments.
What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of their lives each year commuting to work?

29% of the workforce can get their work done from home. If a third of them don't have a reason to go back to work, or can do so in a limited manner, how does this impact commercial real estate?
The real scary implication of that is why not just then outsource those people for pennies on the dollar to India if you don’t need a physical presence ?
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath
Replies: 11
Views: 1039

Re: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath

I guess if your looking at a size based glide path you could think about it like this.

4% rule was based on a 60/40 portfolio thus 25x = 15x stock / 10x Bond.

First 15x saved should be allocated to stock, after which any +x goes into bonds.

As you exceed the 25x or whatever your target goal is, those incremental bonds could be in the form of mix of Tips and Deferred income annuities.
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 12002

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

Listening to Grantham I'd probably have only bought stocks once in my life -- bottom of 2009.

Of course if I was sitting on a giant pile of money and found his advice in 2000, this would have been incredible. long bonds till 2009. move to something like 50/50, gradually re balance out back to bonds. Outside of this one in a million happenstance you would have been much better off ignoring his advice over a long period.
by Snowjob
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 176
Views: 20814

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

The common advice to decide on a stock/bond allocation and to rebalance to it periodically is unrealistic. In this market you would be selling bonds to buy stocks. VIX is 75, about 5 times its usual level. So after stocks have fallen drastically, and you have become substantially poorer, you should dial up risk? My wife is saying we need to exit stocks entirely, and I am trying to resist. If I insisted on rebalancing to get to our allocation of 2 months ago, she might divorce me. Rebalancing out of stocks when they have outperformed bonds is feasible. There's no law saying you can't reduce risk after your investments have done well. it's the rebalancing into stocks with existing money that I oppose. One reason stocks have fallen is that bi...
by Snowjob
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 387
Views: 54905

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I'm now 100% stock, been buying on the way down. I've been somewhere around 20% cash before. ready to just ride it out now.
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 13572

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

We've heard many say that early accumulators should be praying for a market downturn because this results in higher expected forward returns. That being said, I'm wondering how many early accumulators are actually rejoicing for the current downturn. Personally, I'm grateful for it because now that our mortgage is paid off, we're about to triple our retirement contributions. A long sideways market would be great for us. Nope. Been through 2008. That was an extended buying opportunity, this remains to be seen but 15%-20% off the high doesn't strike me as much to write home about. Frankly neither of us I would consider early accumulators anymore. Seems to me you are mostly happy with the fact that you have more cash freed up after paying off ...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you were thinking about getting a divorce
Replies: 4
Views: 1655

Re: If you were thinking about getting a divorce

Only works if you give them the house and cash and you keep the stocks :D
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 9862

Re: Hedonic Clock

Eight years ago I overcame my fear of heights, trained like a wild woman, and did a 7-day backpacking trip to the far reaches of Yosemite (it was amazing to be that far away from other people and to be immersed in nature.) I slept on a rock by a river under the stars one night...with my hiking boots on and my hiking pants tightened over my boots as there were ants on the rock! I told my hiking partner: no more sleeping under the stars--let's use the insect-proof tent :mrgreen: These days I have trained to walk 8 miles a day in Paris, London, or Barcelona. I view it as a challenge to be able to keep up with the 22-somethings in my family, but I do need to rest occasionally. I have looked at touring buses with disdain, but when my feet are h...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 9862

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is really cool. Good Luck. Thanks for the reminder. I've always wanted to visit Machu Picchu. But, if I wait too many years, I'm going to need to charter a helicopter to land me up there. j :happy Well, the good news is if you really do wait “to long” you can take a train to the base and a bus to the top. It’s has that mount Washington tourist feel to it in that way. Hey I finally got here after x days and climbed all these steps in the dark to get ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 9862

Re: Hedonic Clock

I only got two weeks off a year in my 20s and the recession hit right in the middle. Most of my friends lost their jobs for a while so I kinda spent a lot of time saving, learning out investing and just hoping I’d survive long enough at my job to ride it out. By the time I hit 30 I started to get an increase in vacation time, the economy had recovered and I started prioritizing the present. I still have some old “bad” habits of over worrying about money or the job at times from those early experiences but I’m a big proponent of consumption smoothing and prioritizing activities today that my body won’t be able to handle decades down the road. Hard to stay present all the time but it’s definitely seems to be the best course for me.
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 9862

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is really cool. Good Luck. Thanks for the reminder. I've always wanted to visit Machu Picchu. But, if I wait too many years, I'm going to need to charter a helicopter to land me up there. j :happy Well, the good news is if you really do wait “to long” you can take a train to the base and a bus to the top. It’s has that mount Washington tourist feel to it in that way. Hey I finally got here after x days and climbed all these steps in the dark to get ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 9862

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is really cool. Good Luck. Thanks for the advice! I got altitude sickness for several days hiking in Yosemite. I think I will pass on Manchu Picchu. But I am very happy for you :mrgreen: The streets of Paris and art museums are more my dream. I've done that twice now... I don't have the energy for long flights to Europe and walking eight miles a day, as much as I did... Doing some reno on my place and thinking about travel for now. It's all good! I ...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 116
Views: 12851

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

For now, it is going into VSCSX . Eventually, it will probably go into the stocks, after Roth Conversions. Did you buy these to hedge a specific liability? Maybe social security bridge? By moving to stocks you are effectively changing your asset allocation. I recall you into being into tips for a quite a while now, its unfortunate given how this turned out as it probably would have been better to just be in stocks the whole time -- in a way this feels like buying high. This continued decline in interest rates has me worried about fixed income in general and I'll probably keep a high equity allocation forever (75-80% ish) for my main portfolio. I do intend on delaying social security so I'll probably make a bridge myself. Who knows, I could...
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 50x = 100% Equities?
Replies: 86
Views: 6378

Re: Does 50x = 100% Equities?

Just put aside enough to buy an annuity to cover your expenses and then put the remaining 25x in the market.
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive
Replies: 509
Views: 58044

Re: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive

Transferred my remaining points to airlines and then canceled the card.

Went with the capital one venture card as a replacement for now. 4% back no annual fee the first year, and 95 the second. Hopefully in a few years they will adjust the sapphire reserve benefits again to be more in line with what they were and I'll come back to Chase.
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 20108

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

... It is 27 years since existence of DFSVX compared to VIGRX, and the FF paper shows there was very little premium since the paper was published. If value were to explode as you say for a few years, it will only support what I have said, that Value / Growth styles go in and out of favor as cycles change, and over long periods such as 30 years they both end up about the same place. Therefore no reason to tilt, because all you end up getting is tracking error and sequence of returns risk. This is a grave danger for people investing for retirement, they could get caught at the wrong tilt at the wrong time. When you invest style neutral there is no such issue. .... Succinct and extraordinarily well put (bold emphasis mine). I started out as a...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Debt payoff
Replies: 102
Views: 8529

Re: Debt payoff

... I’m learning. I see why most people see it as mistake. But if my end goal is for her to be student loan debt and car free in 3 years. House is payed off by the age of 50. Leading up for the next 30 years max our 401ks( I am only doing 7%- with a dollar per dollar 7% match. ) and also maxing out my Roth. She’ll begin to max out her Roth in 3 years. We both also have pensions. We will not be living off social security. And we get raises every year ... OP you have a fantastic plan! With stable jobs, raises every year, pensions & social security your future is pretty much locked in anyway -- you will be fine. I think the best thing you guys could due to improve your quality of life (and your finances) is to focus on cash flow and pay d...
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A surge in the market next year?
Replies: 37
Views: 2660

Re: A surge in the market next year?

SovereignInvestor wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:41 pm
KlangFool wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:24 pm OP,

It won't matter whether there will be a deal. The economy of many countries had slow down or will be slowing down. And, it will not be a soft landing.

KlangFool
Global manufacturing PMI's bottomed over the summer and have recovered a bit.
Agreed, jobs also keep ticking up and sentiment (for now) seems to be improved. Of course I've heard the "green shoots" in Europe talk for like 8 years now =P Maybe international will finally start catching up?
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A surge in the market next year?
Replies: 37
Views: 2660

Re: A surge in the market next year?

If you are looking to play events in 2020, maybe consider the following. To bet on the possibility of a trade deal with china, moderately increase exposure to industrial & multinationals that have a lot of china P&L opportunity and underweight some of the more domestic non-china plays. These china exposed names have been held back more so than the market as a whole so increasing your exposure to those could give you some added upside if a deal were to happen. To hedge this, you could modestly reduce equity allocation in general and increase cash or buy a few puts with the US election dates in mind. That way if it doesn't happen or if things swing the other direction, you can have some cushion in the event of the market pricing in ex...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2645
Views: 322201

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

My understanding is over the long term it should not make much difference between a US only portfolio compared to a US & International portfolio. Then I read some of the statistics earlier going back over 100 years! Perhaps the outperformance of the US may not continue and will evolve to the US and International returns being close. Why then, assuming the returns of both US & International may be close moving forward (and that is a "may be"), would one want to include international when considering the additional risk should result in additional reward? I feel as if for all the additional risk assumed that I am never compensated in the form of additional return. It appears as if the reward never shows up! (I added the red...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell equities to pay down mortgage
Replies: 22
Views: 2520

Re: Sell equities to pay down mortgage

I sold some taxable investments to get a nice big down payment in on my house. Its great not to deal with PMI and after a 10 year bull run its nice to know I took some off the table permanently.

Not the most efficient economic decision -- yeah we should all have 50 year 3% mortgages forever -- but I actually like not having a monster mortgage and I like to see that more than half of my mortgage payment is principle each month.

My opinion, If you're already doing well on the retirement savings front and this gives you better peace of mind, go for it.
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 156
Views: 17545

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

OP: This may be the greatest thing that ever happened to you. I Agree -- Sounds like the OP is experiencing a lot of stress disconnecting his life and identity from his job. This is awake up call to re-evaluate life priorities. He is asking for financial advice but does not really need it. People re-assuring him that it will be OK might be nice in the short term but deep down that was an expected response when he created this post I suspect. This is about change and re-assessing life, not about money. Sounds like the OP has all the opportunity in the world to do whatever he wants and plenty of life left to do it in. Instead of focusing on getting a new job he should be focusing on what he wants to do with the rest of his life and stop worr...
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forty Year Inflation Protected Retirement Plan
Replies: 12
Views: 1329

Re: Forty Year Inflation Protected Retirement Plan

Well there is a chance that the stable value fund does not keep up with inflation. Additionally the CD's and I-Bonds are likely in a taxable account and you will be losing money taxation every year. To take an extreme example: if Inflation ran at 10% a year, your I-bonds would double in value in 7.2 years (rule of 72) -- keeping up with inflation. However when you go to withdraw you will be paying taxes on that inflation adjustment -- the nominal gain not just the small REAL gain you may have achieved via whatever fixed rate you I-bonds may have. I would definitively include some equities in the portfolio to help provide some long-term growth to help offset this risk. If you are very conservative and have enough money to cover yourself for ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 6914

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

Simple Suggestion - 400,000 VT - Total World Index, Global Cap Weight covers 98% of the world. 2.3% yield = 9,200. --- No cap gains, no need to re-balance or sell just collect the quarterly distribution and move on with your life. 50,000 - Immediate Annuity for a 72 y/o male. income at 330/month or 3,960 / year. --- Guaranteed for life ~ 8% withdrawal rate 50,000 - CD's at your local bank / savings account. Income at 2% ~1,000 per year. --- Liquidity for emergencies etc. Cash flow out of the portfolio based on how the OP likes to spend would be approximately 14k per year and 80% of the portfolio value / 65% of the 'dividends' will shift with the world economy and likely offset inflation over time. The low spend rate and high equity allocati...
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.
Replies: 12
Views: 1541

Re: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.

If you cant chose and its bothering you, why not go 50% index 50% active?

Even the father of index funds Mr Bogle recommended a 50 / 50 split between an active balanced fund (wellington) and a passive balanced fund (vanguard balanced index) as a long term allocation for an endowment. (I believe there was a little gold in there as insurance as well)