Search found 1368 matches

by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 7920

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

God yes retire now,

Your biggest risk is not retiring soon enough! Don't worry about the doomsday scenario that will basically wipe out everyone... you could die of a heart attack or cancer before you end up enjoying it.
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 167
Views: 14750

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working care...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 167
Views: 14750

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working care...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 167
Views: 14750

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working caree...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?
Replies: 23
Views: 2353

Re: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?

1.) most of us who retire "early" (pre-age 70 for max soc. sec.) will employ some sort of bucketing strategy / mental accounting where we set aside bonds to cover the gap between age xx and 70. We are counting on social security as a stable payout and it makes the rest of the portfolio easier to thi...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tequila and Magaritas
Replies: 59
Views: 4386

Re: Tequila and Magaritas

I have cointreau and tripple sec but to be honest cointreau is probably not worth it in the end. For the little bit that goes into a Marg, its not worth the expensive bottle. Additionally I've found my favorite tequila to be quite reasonably priced -- Espolon.
by Snowjob
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy
Replies: 149
Views: 6279

Re: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy

Like any system or rule of thumb this should only be a ball park. As such I like this as a determinate for being "FINANCIALLY INDEPENDENT" which is exactly what KF is saying here. Its not about retirement or some future state where your situation could change enormously but a current test to see how...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver
Replies: 25
Views: 2620

Re: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver

Thank you all for the responses I'll be reflecting on this more and revisiting the discussion this weekend. As with most big decisions there is a lot to go into it and I value all of your input =)
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13501

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

2) The standard housing advice is to buy a house 3.5 times the household gross income. KlangFool Personally I'm a little leery of 3.5x gross. I think 2.5x gross is probably the most I would be comfortable with and for some reason that rings a bell in my mind. That said, I think if I were to buy a h...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 21685

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

No. Facebook is an amazing tool. Share photos and videos, plan events, messaging service, market place. I see this mostly as paranoia, politics. "it's not paranoia if they're really out to get you" The problems with data collection are very real. Of course, as consumers we make individual choices a...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13501

Working till retirement is not a great plan

I expect at some point (perhaps around 50, give or take a few years??) I will start to experience some sort of conscious or subconscious age discrimination in the work force. Like fellow board member Klangfool, I wouldn't bank on keeping ones current job and salary level till you reach a ripe old ag...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 21685

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

No.

Facebook is an amazing tool. Share photos and videos, plan events, messaging service, market place.

I see this mostly as paranoia, politics.
by Snowjob
Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver
Replies: 25
Views: 2620

Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver

I've been a renter my entire life, its been far cheaper than buying a house in my area. I've valued the flexibility it affords in the event of a relocation and I've been able to funnel the excess savings from not owning the house into the stock market. As I'm now in my mid 30's I've been thinking it...
by Snowjob
Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debt Normalcy
Replies: 7
Views: 927

Re: Debt Normalcy

I think average is the key here We on this site skew to a very small portion of the population. We are probably mostly in the top 20% (higher?) of the incomes / savings in this country. Our peers we associate with are also probably also in the upper say 30% or upper 40%. So based on what our eyes se...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8810

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Perhaps if you operated some small US/domestic business for employment and were already using Tips & US Treasuries as your bonds you might think of doing 100% international for your equity??
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Avoid Selling Depreciated Stocks When Retired
Replies: 48
Views: 2444

Re: How to Avoid Selling Depreciated Stocks When Retired

If you don't mind altering your AA you can draw bonds and hope the market comes back. Otherwise it's going be pretty much the same between a withdrawal after a market correction of a balanced fund or separate funds.
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?
Replies: 59
Views: 6048

Re: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?

It isn’t implausible. Look at Japan. Even if you cut 1988 Nikkei valuations in half they still would be around zero return long term. Or look at scenario 67-81 where equities went down a lot and bonds lost 40% tanked in real term from 76-81. If you look at what I posted, I said “plus 2% real gains”...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?
Replies: 59
Views: 6048

Re: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?

:!: Hi All, Just laid off. I'm 57 and was planning to retire at 60. But circumstances have changed and I'm looking for advice. Wouldn't mind retiring now but not sure I should. I can probably get a similar job to continue working, but who knows. What would you do? Here are the financial details. Me ...
by Snowjob
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 408
Views: 41676

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

Love to ski, had Gi Joes as a kid. The skier was was my favorite.

Image
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3700

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

.... I plan to retire at 62, take my Social Security at that time, and use a variable 4% SWR based on the size of my portfolio . Is that SWR optimum? Who knows! But it is good enough. I agree with you: Enjoyment is found by living in the present. If you are somebody ele's employee, work is the mean...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Alternative
Replies: 59
Views: 6018

Re: Amazon Alternative

GratefulinNC wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:32 pm
Support your local economy. Shop at your local bricks and mortar stores. Keep your Main Street strong.
I refuse to use amazon.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3700

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

... But I have also spent the last 7 years working like a dog and it has affected my marriage in a negative way. I have done great as far as saving money but now I realize that I have given up some great years in my youth that I will not get back. I have decided to take a huge chunk of what I have ...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2598

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

rkhusky wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:40 pm
There is always the risk that the future will not look like the past. If you don't need to take the risk, should you? If the market drops by 50% and doesn't come back to even for 20 years, how would that affect your standard of living?
Yep that would suck.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Budget and Savings
Replies: 5
Views: 600

Re: Budget and Savings

Honestly, I think you are over-saving unless that 900 each month going to the bank is going to be used on vacations and travel. Your covering a mortgage, maxing all your retirement plans, saving an additional 10k a year in after tax but are only spending 600 dollars a year on entertainment. As long ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 628

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

And right now in the US we have a very healthy Venture Capital economy that is funding all our new startups. I think this new method is actually better for the businesses as the good ones survive long term and eventually go public (see Facebook for example). I will take the other side, slightly. I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money
Replies: 32
Views: 1937

Re: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money

Given how small the dollars are, keep him invested in individual stocks of companies he and his peers use and value -- Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Paypal, whatever car company he is interested in or fast food restaurant he likes to eat, perhaps the bank he has a small savings account at. He w...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 628

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

It is unfortunate in a way.

Would be nice us small fish to get a piece of the action.
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are earnings less volatile today?
Replies: 2
Views: 319

Are earnings less volatile today?

The multiple people are willing to pay for earnings is always shifting relative to intensest rates, perceived risk, investor demand etc. I understand one needs to be willing to accept changes in this. What I am curious about is the nature of the underlying earnings. I suspect that over time (last 10...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young vs Middle Aged?
Replies: 32
Views: 2969

Re: Young vs Middle Aged?

I am 35. On a social level, I am just starting to really feel old around 25 year old's who are the younger end of my friend group. Everyone's career and family life (single, married, kids etc) takes different paths so that muddies the water a bit, so I tend to lean on how well we hang out and connec...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?
Replies: 120
Views: 8048

Re: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?

Interesting, I assume you want something that is applicable to your own economic conditions so I will have a go. The biggest idea is sell your individual stocks and stick with index funds, but not for the reason you may think. You are in a Goldilocks situation -- great income, stable employer, pens...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?
Replies: 120
Views: 8048

Re: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?

Interesting, I assume you want something that is applicable to your own economic conditions so I will have a go. The biggest idea is sell your individual stocks and stick with index funds, but not for the reason you may think. You are in a Goldilocks situation -- great income, stable employer, pensi...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if Your Play Money Blows Up?
Replies: 31
Views: 4140

Re: What if Your Play Money Blows Up?

Taxes aside, I would move at least that original 5% into the main portfolio so you are guaranteed to have never lost anything then do whatever you want with the remaining.
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 52
Views: 6203

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

I prefer a simple, transparent insurance policy. Put the entire investment into the SP500, e.g. buy SPY. Insure annually by buying one-year Puts, current prices: 0% downwards acceptable: cost is 5.2% 5% downwards acceptable: cost is 3.7% 10% downwards acceptable: cost is 2.7% You are going to be pa...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio/Tony Robbins All-Weather portfolio questions
Replies: 26
Views: 2935

Re: Ray Dalio/Tony Robbins All-Weather portfolio questions

Treasuries at 65% of the portfolio - is quite conservative, I personally would have less of a stake at this point maybe 40% at best and probably reduce the duration given where rates are but I suppose this is to taste. Maybe swap in some TIPs too Commodities at 7.5% of the portf - your basically hol...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective
Replies: 18
Views: 2904

Re: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective

I feel like this is mostly a complicated way to say -- save more money. I like the physiological benefit of thinking oh well I can lose 50% and still be good for a basic frugal retirement for 30 years. But mostly its a way of saying, I have a lot of money squirreled away already. Also, in order to a...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 24055

Re: 401k millionaires

Way to much bad data to do any concrete analysis but it does do a good job at reminding all of us that the goalposts keep moving. That's a massive increase in new millionaire accounts regardless! I was feeling good about myself but when you sit back and think about it -- the only thing that matters ...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24150

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Not a milestone but a dizzying statistic-- so far in January, I've received 1 paycheck of 2018 from my employer for a gross value of X... My portfolio is up 18X. Ok sure, once the second paycheck comes in at the end of the month this will drop this down to more of a 9-10x for the month number but I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3594

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected earning in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1153

Re: Expected earning in next 10 years

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html I find the above link helpful. The toughest thing to predict is earnings growth. However, if consensus forward earnings prove to be correct, we are pricing in an 18x multiple 1 year out (see the wsj market data) and I don't think that's particul...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39179

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Flexible approaches are a sane way of going but you add a lot more complexity to the model. The question is always you retiree in 1966/1973/2000 of how much to cut back. You can do massive cuts (see VPW or any schemes that uses starting year account balances), you can do nothing (4% rule), or you c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39179

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm planning on a mix of Social Security, Annuities and a flexible 4% of whatever the portfolio balance is after that. Actually, if your necessities can be covered by SS and annuities, you could probably use a 5% WR with the rest of your portfolio or an even higher rate if you used a flexible (i.e....
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39179

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You'll note that I said 50x our base living expenses, meaning the non-discretionary necessities (e.g. utilities, groceries, auto insurance, property taxes). I'd like to spend about that much again on discretionary categories like traveling. But my point is that with 50x my base living expenses, I c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39179

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I think that's wise advice. Personally, I don't plan on retiring until my portfolio is roughly 50x my base living expenses. I plan on withdrawing around 5% of the portfolio value each year. So even if my portfolio were to be cut in value by half, I'd still have enough to cover the necessities, in a...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 39179

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

This is just "in theory". In reality, would you (or the hypothetical retiree) have actually had the guts to ride it out? I remember Jim Cramer screaming something like DOW 6666 was going to something like DOW 3333. OK, Bogleheads don't do Cramer, but would the smug 1999 retiree that you describe RE...
by Snowjob
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24150

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

I wonder what Market Timer is up to these days. He and I were experimenting with (dying from??) leverage on the way down in 2008 and are near the same age as far as I can tell. Interesting to see his change in philosophy over time when it comes to money, work, spending the portfolio etc. Sounds lik...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24150

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27566

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

When you are 35 you have relatively long time horizons coupled with relatively small portfolios compared to older investors like me at age 58. In theory, your pain from loss ought to be a lot less than mine since the dollar amounts of loss for you will be a lot smaller than for me. In fact, it does...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?
Replies: 71
Views: 4240

Re: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?

This is a function of cost of living in the area and salary. I'm in a higher cost of living area (not SF, NYC but certainly higher than most parts of the country) I'm about 15%
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24150

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...