Search found 1332 matches

by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 111
Views: 8748

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Not a milestone but a dizzying statistic-- so far in January, I've received 1 paycheck of 2018 from my employer for a gross value of X... My portfolio is up 18X. Ok sure, once the second paycheck comes in at the end of the month this will drop this down to more of a 9-10x for the month number but I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 32
Views: 3012

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected earning in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1004

Re: Expected earning in next 10 years

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html I find the above link helpful. The toughest thing to predict is earnings growth. However, if consensus forward earnings prove to be correct, we are pricing in an 18x multiple 1 year out (see the wsj market data) and I don't think that's particul...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33696

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Flexible approaches are a sane way of going but you add a lot more complexity to the model. The question is always you retiree in 1966/1973/2000 of how much to cut back. You can do massive cuts (see VPW or any schemes that uses starting year account balances), you can do nothing (4% rule), or you c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33696

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm planning on a mix of Social Security, Annuities and a flexible 4% of whatever the portfolio balance is after that. Actually, if your necessities can be covered by SS and annuities, you could probably use a 5% WR with the rest of your portfolio or an even higher rate if you used a flexible (i.e....
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33696

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You'll note that I said 50x our base living expenses, meaning the non-discretionary necessities (e.g. utilities, groceries, auto insurance, property taxes). I'd like to spend about that much again on discretionary categories like traveling. But my point is that with 50x my base living expenses, I c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33696

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I think that's wise advice. Personally, I don't plan on retiring until my portfolio is roughly 50x my base living expenses. I plan on withdrawing around 5% of the portfolio value each year. So even if my portfolio were to be cut in value by half, I'd still have enough to cover the necessities, in a...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33696

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

This is just "in theory". In reality, would you (or the hypothetical retiree) have actually had the guts to ride it out? I remember Jim Cramer screaming something like DOW 6666 was going to something like DOW 3333. OK, Bogleheads don't do Cramer, but would the smug 1999 retiree that you describe RE...
by Snowjob
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 111
Views: 8748

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

I wonder what Market Timer is up to these days. He and I were experimenting with (dying from??) leverage on the way down in 2008 and are near the same age as far as I can tell. Interesting to see his change in philosophy over time when it comes to money, work, spending the portfolio etc. Sounds lik...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 111
Views: 8748

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24869

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

When you are 35 you have relatively long time horizons coupled with relatively small portfolios compared to older investors like me at age 58. In theory, your pain from loss ought to be a lot less than mine since the dollar amounts of loss for you will be a lot smaller than for me. In fact, it does...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?
Replies: 68
Views: 3585

Re: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?

This is a function of cost of living in the area and salary. I'm in a higher cost of living area (not SF, NYC but certainly higher than most parts of the country) I'm about 15%
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 111
Views: 8748

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 Year Old Retiring Extremely Early-Domestic Wellesley or Half Global, Half Domestic Wellesley Better for my Bonds?
Replies: 55
Views: 6617

Re: 25 Year Old Retiring Extremely Early-Domestic Wellesley or Half Global, Half Domestic Wellesley Better for my Bonds?

A place to start would be defining "safer." Is "safer" the more diversified position that is closer to global equity distribution? In that case, a 50/50 domestic/international split may make sense. Is "safer" the allocation with the highest past performance? In that case, a higher domestic tilt wou...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24869

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

A nice problem to have but if I was 35 years old, I would simply be enjoying the ride. At 58, it seems to be like that laurel hedge growing out of control, a big chore to maintain. This is because I am concerned about controlling my risk as I get older. Ah to be young again! How are other older inv...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 895

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

Because its an insurance policy. It costs you, but your covered if you need it. When your portfolio grows large enough your emergency fund is no longer needed and it should be just part of your asset allocation. But those first 5 years or however long it takes of working 10 years, it really should b...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 111
Views: 8748

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Wow congrats!! I feel like it was just 7 or 8 years ago you got out of residency. I think one thing that I've learned more than anything else in the last 10 years when it comes to milestones, net worth and goal posts is that getting a great job matters a LOT. You can certainly save and bank on the s...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9734

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? Bitcoin? :D For the record I never bought any, and I am reminded of this blunder by people on Facebook and at work just about every da...
by Snowjob
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2266

Re: Early Retirement Planning Strategy

I don't think there is much different you can do. As a single person I model for a range of scenarios anywhere from early retirement to a more normal one if end up with kids etc. Ultimately your tools are still the same, basically stocks and bonds. So while I may model for different scenarios, there...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Portfolio - Half Target-Date / Half 3-Fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 504

Re: Hybrid Portfolio - Half Target-Date / Half 3-Fund?

You know I've actually moved more toward a hybrid approach myself. Taxable and Roth are 100% equity 401k is mostly target date. I'm letting the 401k increase my bond allocation over time while letting the stock in my Roth and 401k run as much as they can. I effectively don't re balance now. Every on...
by Snowjob
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?
Replies: 20
Views: 1589

Re: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?

Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold? What determines whether stock prices go up or down? Is it solely supply and demand for the stocks? Doesn't that make all stocks extremely volatile? Basically, yes. Are stock prices b...
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds
Replies: 96
Views: 11331

Re: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds

I've always held to the Ben Graham boundaries of no more than 75% equity, no less than 25% equity -- even when using leverage. That said it would have been wonderful to go all the way back to 2009 and say nope, all in. But I didn't. Frankly I don't think I could have. When people are losing their jo...
by Snowjob
Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations
Replies: 44
Views: 3019

Re: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations

50$ - Bedbugs, hidden cameras, a break in, general uncleaniness
100-200 - A good night sleep, peace of mind
300+ - Regret, a hole in my wallet, hoping work paid for it :D
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 5258

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

If you have $100k in mutual funds, your broker will treat that as $50k in cash for margin purposes. So, without forcing you to sell the mutual funds, they'll pretend you have $50k in cash in your margin account, which you can use to buy $167k (50/0.3) of SPY. So which is more Bogle-heady for Decemb...
by Snowjob
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Home vs Sonos
Replies: 0
Views: 231

Google Home vs Sonos

I saw a note out that the new google home Max is coming out. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/google-home-max-now-available-for-purchase.html Anyone use the google home speakers for a sound system? I have some Sonos products right now and enjoy them, but not being able to stream YouTube is a big pain...
by Snowjob
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13077

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

Just another form of -- live off the dividends and interest strategy just a lower (stock selection) level. Makes sense to me.
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund in a ROTH
Replies: 28
Views: 2710

Re: Bond fund in a ROTH

I've always been a stock in the Roth person, but if you take market timing and valuations aside, many of the experts here will tell you to put bonds in a Roth. One part of the theory is that if equities fall, your tax liability to the government also does but in a Roth you already paid your taxes so...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 2307

Re: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?

I've come to conceptualize my retirement portfolio using a bit of mental accounting (yes I know, frowned upon). If you have certain periods of your life that will be covered by Soc Sec, pension or a deferred annuity and you know the value of those, I think it can be beneficial separate your portfoli...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5555

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Eyeballing that chart, looks like if you exclude 1968-1975 instead, you'll get an effect that's twice as big. Seems the effect was negative for a few years, and then strongly positive for a few years. I always wonder why people exclude certain really good or really periods and they say but look, if...
by Snowjob
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: wellington fund ( VWELX )
Replies: 24
Views: 2785

Re: wellington fund ( VWELX )

Yep, it could be all downhill from here. Seriously. It is amusing how much love for W & W there is given all the index fund aficionados that hang out here. People like the set it and forget it approach and I suspect the 2/3s stock 1/3 bond allocation just feels right to people. these predate a lot ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lifestyle Creep
Replies: 142
Views: 12803

Re: Lifestyle Creep

If you live happily on $80k, you need $1 million to maintain that lifestyle. If you let your lifestyle creep up to $120k a year, not only are you saving less each year, but now you need $3 million instead of $2 million. For a second, I was very happy with the thought of able to have $80K lifestyle ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No More Saving???
Replies: 114
Views: 11393

Re: No More Saving???

If at a 3% withdrawal rate, my portfolio could generate my salary, I would stop saving. I'm not even close... but as I age and as I make progress toward my number, I am scaling back my saving a bit to try and better smooth my consumption over time.
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average American Net Worth is $534,600?
Replies: 15
Views: 3031

Re: Average American Net Worth is $534,600?

None of which are good benchmarks for us in this forum as we are likely all in the top 10-20% -- almost assuredly top 50% of income earners in this country.
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Milestone-this is the only place to share
Replies: 21
Views: 2577

Re: Personal Milestone-this is the only place to share

Excellent story -- Its amazing when we can hit these milestones and take a few moments to reflect on the journey. Hard work, having your health and a spouse on the same page makes these things possible. Best of luck on your next million!
by Snowjob
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Couple in mid-30s looking for financial independence within 10 years
Replies: 34
Views: 7338

Re: Couple in mid-30s looking for financial independence within 10 years

The only gaps I see are crypo-currency (since no expert has told bogleheads they hold put that in their portfolio :eye-roll: and the multiple direct rental properties is a leveraged investment most wouldn't advise) as long as your job is secure, keep knocking out those mortgages and you should be OK...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8825

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

Personally I would ditch the 5% allocation to REIT's. IMO with tilts in general, a 5% allocation is just a distraction -- go big or stay simple. Not arguing, just noting that William Bernstein and David Swensen and others would say that 5% is the smallest recommended percentage of an asset class. I...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8825

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

Personally I would ditch the 5% allocation to REIT's. IMO with tilts in general, a 5% allocation is just a distraction -- go big or stay simple. The rest of the portfolio looks great, cheap broad based exposure. Equity heavy but that's fine 80/20 is probably the upper end I would be willing to do an...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 years old, how am I doing ?
Replies: 54
Views: 8825

Re: 33 years old, how am I doing ?

May I ask what you do? In my mind shift work in my mind is typically lower pay. Congrats on all your success so far looks like ur in great shape to down shift
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 10
Views: 1427

Re: Portfolio Review

Greetings, This is my first post and I am looking for a portfolio review please. I have not previously asked anyone to review my portfolio, but thought it might be time :oops: ... just want to make sure I am on a good path. I probably need a better paying job haha, but that's for another time. :| S...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please help...am I overextended - first home
Replies: 78
Views: 7496

Re: please help...am I overextended - first home

how many years left on the 401k loan?

also please define net pay -- is this after all taxes, 401k contributions and loan payments?
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does personal wealth affect job hunting?
Replies: 57
Views: 7783

Re: How does personal wealth affect job hunting?

Folks, In my own personal experience, as I am getting wealthier, I am less willing to compromise my work life balance for a job. Did this happen to you? If yes, how does this affect you in term of the job that you are willing to accept? A) Pay -> minimum pay that you are willing to accept. B) Commu...
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3036

Re: Stable Value Funds vs Bond Funds

My Stable value fund has a 3% and change yield, diversified across multiple insurers. I of course have used this instead of bonds for the last 5-6 years do to the impending bond bubble LOL guess I missed out on all that repricing of credit as interest rates moved south.
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation
Replies: 72
Views: 8970

Re: Still Buying As planned Regardless Of The World Situation

Yep. Problems and reasons NOT to invest are easy to find if that's what people are looking for. I'm always buying. I'll stop when I die. You might change your tune when you are retired and you start drawing down your portfolio. maybe dividends and interest more than cover his expenses and he really...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy Google Pixel mobile now or wait for Pixel 2
Replies: 33
Views: 3651

Re: Buy Google Pixel mobile now or wait for Pixel 2

I'm thinking of switching my parents to this -- anyone have any experience with google-fi in Connecticut / New England?
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?
Replies: 62
Views: 10595

Re: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?

Knowing when to stop investing is really a tricky thing -- so many variables the further you are from your end point. Who the heck knows about health care, your future family situation etc etc. I'm 7 yrs older than you and I struggle with when and how much to down shift -- I don't think any of us ca...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Plan for enough assets to get to age 70 if stocks plummet?
Replies: 14
Views: 2229

Re: Plan for enough assets to get to age 70 if stocks plummet?

....We have 2 years of cash, laddered CDs, etc which could cover our basic living expenses if my spouse was forced to retire before age 70 . Also have extra funds for unexpected home expenses and new ( used) car, which would be hard to factor into our budget reliably.... ....If overall portfolio re...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"
Replies: 42
Views: 5730

Re: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"

... I remember losing a few hundred dollars in the October 1987 stock market crash and I saw my financial life flash in front of my eyes. Emotionally, I may as well have lost billions and not hundreds. Imagine what that would be like now, after many years of portfolio growth? The dollar amounts are...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 6330

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

...can anyone confirm if an initial investment in Total Stock Market,allowed to reinvest distributions and compound,tends over multiple years to show a trend of rising dividend total payout (not percentage yield) per year? (Even if no new money is added?) I was looking at vanguards dividend growth ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 6330

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

the dividend investing flow chart -- Start-->Do you believe dividend investing leads to higher returns? +No --> seek a total return approach (standard boglehead) +Yes--> Do you believe you are better than the professional investors who are managing funds focused on the same strategy? +++No --> Tilt...