Search found 1391 matches

by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 4926

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

I will maintain a small tilt to of about 5-8% of my portfolio to small and small value just in case I'm wrong but other than two distinct periods I don't see any difference. HOWEVER, they do seem to run at different times, so as part of an overall equity allocation I believe there can be a re-balan...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 24
Views: 2236

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Among my circle of friends and acquaintances are a significant representation of people living less optimum retirements than they expected or hoped for due to mental disability, divorce, death of spouse, and if not counted as mental disability, drug or gambling addiction. There is no one I know of ...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 24
Views: 2236

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss o...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 78
Views: 4926

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Similarly, Jeremy Siegel had noted long ago that the size effect is completely attributable to the single time period 1975 through 1983. Throw out that time period and the whole small-cap premium disappears. I verified this in Portfolio Visualizer and was amazed to see that from 1984 until now, the...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 24
Views: 2236

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss of...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 35
Views: 1797

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 8445

Re: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation

Im reigniting this in lieu of all the volatility the past few months. I’m a 1980’s born millennial that didn’t experience the 2008 crash. I’m still at an 80/20 allocation and I know that the approximate 10% correction the past few months was nothing compared to 2008 or 2001 or 1987. I keep seeing 1...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 112
Views: 7709

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

I would say that the biggest flaw in the OP's theory is that investing across the world vs investing just in the U.S. is a frictionless difference. Adding international is not equivalent to simply adding more companies to a broader index like the shift from the S&P 500 to TSM. You are adding new cu...
by Snowjob
Tue May 22, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11322

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I would argue that once you have hit your goal prior to the "strike date", the remaining time is irrelevant. The point is that one has the option of taking the entirety of one's investment out of the market and moving it to riskless treasuries for the remainder of the time period. Remaining in the ...
by Snowjob
Mon May 21, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11322

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I'm with Victoria. Yes, it's worth revisiting one's old predictions, but by jumping the gun, Snowjob has simply launched a fresh round of arguments over our personal predictions about the next seven months. Of course, willthrill's point is how bad predictions are, but he is predicting that Snowjob'...
by Snowjob
Sun May 20, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11322

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

It would take a drop of nearly 20% from current levels for stocks to not have doubled since the time of the OP. That is, of course, possible, but historically not likely to occur within the next seven months. It goes to show you that a majority of Bogleheads (at least those who participated in the ...
by Snowjob
Sun May 20, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11322

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Your cited message was written on 22 Dec 2011. Wait until its 7th anniversary. Victoria Ha, I was just browsing through my old posts out of curiosity to see how my thoughts may have changed over the years with respect to various things, and in some cases to see if old threads had continued on that ...
by Snowjob
Sun May 20, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11322

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I guess I'm a perma bear, but you really need a lot of global wage inflation combined with comodity deflation or at least stagnation in order for the market to move that much in 7 years. I think speculation as measured by high PE's on a broad basis wont be back for a long time. We know what the cur...
by Snowjob
Sun May 20, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 8445

Re: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation

Im reigniting this in lieu of all the volatility the past few months. I’m a 1980’s born millennial that didn’t experience the 2008 crash. I’m still at an 80/20 allocation and I know that the approximate 10% correction the past few months was nothing compared to 2008 or 2001 or 1987. I keep seeing 1...
by Snowjob
Tue May 08, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock
Replies: 49
Views: 6494

Re: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock

That seems to me to be unnecessarily aggressive on the allocation side, since you would be in 100% stocks, but unnecessarily conservative on the withdrawal rate side, since you can expect capital gains, and historically you can safely withdraw 4% of a total portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds...
by Snowjob
Sun May 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 56
Views: 10844

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

That's the kind of risk (inflation destroying long-term bond returns, the SCV premium not being there, sluggish emerging markets) that won't show up as simple volatility on the back-test ... It's more an unknown existential risk And it's there with any portfolio predominantly in stocks - historical...
by Snowjob
Sun May 06, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 4802

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:22 am
JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.

Hah! And has definitely underperformed since then.
Actually since inception its ahead by about 10%
by Snowjob
Thu May 03, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swollen Emergency Fund....What now?
Replies: 43
Views: 3189

Re: Swollen Emergency Fund....What now?

You can always relieve the swelling by sending me a check :wink:
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15893

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

... assumptions - Soc. Sec. 20k (we are supposed to get that haircut, and I may not make 65 at the same salary level so have been using 20k as a reasonable assumption - Pension 0k (this is where the TIP's come in, I'd need 20k a year to replace this - Risk portfolio -- everything else. So using tha...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15893

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Yes I agree with this approach, save normally but use TIP's for the majority of your bond component, I think that is the only way for someone to get there unless you have tons of income you don't know what to do with. Saving your TIP's run each year for 30 years in retirement is pretty inefficient ...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 30927

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

OK, so having a 529 and low income still says you have a high ability to pay, they don't look at retirement accounts. What about a brokerage account (taxable account) Just curious As far as FAFSA is concerned, a 529 is the same as taxable accounts: available assets. There's a small Asset Protection...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 30927

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

Why do you use a Roth IRA instead of saving those same dollars in to taxable accounts? I am sure you have good reason to do so. If you are going to pay at least some of your kids college expenses, a 529 has exactly the same advantage as a Roth. marcopolo, No. I can use Roth IRA's money for anything...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 30927

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

[RE 529] ..... Our situation explains it. If you save diligently for years, and lose your job, your kids are now more likely to receive financial aid if your savings are all in retirement accounts and not 529 accounts. Low earned income + little "available assets" = low EFC. Save in 529 accounts an...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?
Replies: 121
Views: 8777

Re: 2.5% Withdrawal for 50 Years With 50/50 Portfolio?

God yes retire now,

Your biggest risk is not retiring soon enough! Don't worry about the doomsday scenario that will basically wipe out everyone... you could die of a heart attack or cancer before you end up enjoying it.
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15893

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working care...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15893

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working care...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15893

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My problem is one that Nedsaid has brought up before. I think most people just don't have excess savings to dedicate to building a TIP's ladder over their career. Great, if equities do well and I have a ton of money when I hit my 50's I'll buy myself a TIP's ladder, but with a 30+ year working caree...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?
Replies: 23
Views: 2505

Re: Article on "Buckets" at Morningstar. How Does The Bucket Approach To Retirement Allocation apply to you?

1.) most of us who retire "early" (pre-age 70 for max soc. sec.) will employ some sort of bucketing strategy / mental accounting where we set aside bonds to cover the gap between age xx and 70. We are counting on social security as a stable payout and it makes the rest of the portfolio easier to thi...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tequila and Magaritas
Replies: 59
Views: 4624

Re: Tequila and Magaritas

I have cointreau and tripple sec but to be honest cointreau is probably not worth it in the end. For the little bit that goes into a Marg, its not worth the expensive bottle. Additionally I've found my favorite tequila to be quite reasonably priced -- Espolon.
by Snowjob
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy
Replies: 149
Views: 6720

Re: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy

Like any system or rule of thumb this should only be a ball park. As such I like this as a determinate for being "FINANCIALLY INDEPENDENT" which is exactly what KF is saying here. Its not about retirement or some future state where your situation could change enormously but a current test to see how...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver
Replies: 25
Views: 2740

Re: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver

Thank you all for the responses I'll be reflecting on this more and revisiting the discussion this weekend. As with most big decisions there is a lot to go into it and I value all of your input =)
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13855

Re: Working till retirement is not a great plan

2) The standard housing advice is to buy a house 3.5 times the household gross income. KlangFool Personally I'm a little leery of 3.5x gross. I think 2.5x gross is probably the most I would be comfortable with and for some reason that rings a bell in my mind. That said, I think if I were to buy a h...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 22692

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

No. Facebook is an amazing tool. Share photos and videos, plan events, messaging service, market place. I see this mostly as paranoia, politics. "it's not paranoia if they're really out to get you" The problems with data collection are very real. Of course, as consumers we make individual choices a...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working till retirement is not a great plan
Replies: 175
Views: 13855

Working till retirement is not a great plan

I expect at some point (perhaps around 50, give or take a few years??) I will start to experience some sort of conscious or subconscious age discrimination in the work force. Like fellow board member Klangfool, I wouldn't bank on keeping ones current job and salary level till you reach a ripe old ag...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 329
Views: 22692

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

No.

Facebook is an amazing tool. Share photos and videos, plan events, messaging service, market place.

I see this mostly as paranoia, politics.
by Snowjob
Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver
Replies: 25
Views: 2740

Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver

I've been a renter my entire life, its been far cheaper than buying a house in my area. I've valued the flexibility it affords in the event of a relocation and I've been able to funnel the excess savings from not owning the house into the stock market. As I'm now in my mid 30's I've been thinking it...
by Snowjob
Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debt Normalcy
Replies: 7
Views: 955

Re: Debt Normalcy

I think average is the key here We on this site skew to a very small portion of the population. We are probably mostly in the top 20% (higher?) of the incomes / savings in this country. Our peers we associate with are also probably also in the upper say 30% or upper 40%. So based on what our eyes se...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 9043

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Perhaps if you operated some small US/domestic business for employment and were already using Tips & US Treasuries as your bonds you might think of doing 100% international for your equity??
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Avoid Selling Depreciated Stocks When Retired
Replies: 48
Views: 2492

Re: How to Avoid Selling Depreciated Stocks When Retired

If you don't mind altering your AA you can draw bonds and hope the market comes back. Otherwise it's going be pretty much the same between a withdrawal after a market correction of a balanced fund or separate funds.
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?
Replies: 59
Views: 6154

Re: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?

It isn’t implausible. Look at Japan. Even if you cut 1988 Nikkei valuations in half they still would be around zero return long term. Or look at scenario 67-81 where equities went down a lot and bonds lost 40% tanked in real term from 76-81. If you look at what I posted, I said “plus 2% real gains”...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?
Replies: 59
Views: 6154

Re: Laid off 3 years before plan, should I retire anyway?

:!: Hi All, Just laid off. I'm 57 and was planning to retire at 60. But circumstances have changed and I'm looking for advice. Wouldn't mind retiring now but not sure I should. I can probably get a similar job to continue working, but who knows. What would you do? Here are the financial details. Me ...
by Snowjob
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 408
Views: 42772

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

Love to ski, had Gi Joes as a kid. The skier was was my favorite.

Image
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3796

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

.... I plan to retire at 62, take my Social Security at that time, and use a variable 4% SWR based on the size of my portfolio . Is that SWR optimum? Who knows! But it is good enough. I agree with you: Enjoyment is found by living in the present. If you are somebody ele's employee, work is the mean...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Alternative
Replies: 86
Views: 7670

Re: Amazon Alternative

GratefulinNC wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:32 pm
Support your local economy. Shop at your local bricks and mortar stores. Keep your Main Street strong.
I refuse to use amazon.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3796

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

... But I have also spent the last 7 years working like a dog and it has affected my marriage in a negative way. I have done great as far as saving money but now I realize that I have given up some great years in my youth that I will not get back. I have decided to take a huge chunk of what I have ...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2690

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

rkhusky wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:40 pm
There is always the risk that the future will not look like the past. If you don't need to take the risk, should you? If the market drops by 50% and doesn't come back to even for 20 years, how would that affect your standard of living?
Yep that would suck.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Budget and Savings
Replies: 5
Views: 611

Re: Budget and Savings

Honestly, I think you are over-saving unless that 900 each month going to the bank is going to be used on vacations and travel. Your covering a mortgage, maxing all your retirement plans, saving an additional 10k a year in after tax but are only spending 600 dollars a year on entertainment. As long ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 651

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

And right now in the US we have a very healthy Venture Capital economy that is funding all our new startups. I think this new method is actually better for the businesses as the good ones survive long term and eventually go public (see Facebook for example). I will take the other side, slightly. I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money
Replies: 32
Views: 1978

Re: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money

Given how small the dollars are, keep him invested in individual stocks of companies he and his peers use and value -- Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Paypal, whatever car company he is interested in or fast food restaurant he likes to eat, perhaps the bank he has a small savings account at. He w...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 651

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

It is unfortunate in a way.

Would be nice us small fish to get a piece of the action.