Search found 1583 matches

by Snowjob
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?
Replies: 144
Views: 13481

Re: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?

I wish I had kept data to know how much I saved in my 20's. I THINK it was over 20%, but I can't really be sure. I'm 50 now and have been saving quite a bit more than 20% the past 15 years, but I'm definitely not in a position to retire early, but I've always been kind of low income, so even saving...
by Snowjob
Wed May 15, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 107
Views: 6761

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

Come on, for all the time spent here on this message board surely some of you could take a break from your frugal ways for a moment and celebrate with more than a cup of coffee. If that's celebration to you I can't imagine the lifestyle you choose to live WOW. OK I guess I'm guilty of much the same ...
by Snowjob
Tue May 14, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Situation for 28 year old
Replies: 16
Views: 1338

Re: Mortgage Situation for 28 year old

Funny, I'm in a similar situation as you. Age wise, mid/late 30's with about 14 years to go on the mortgage and retirement savings rate is down to about 15%. I used to save significantly more while renting and the change to a lower savings rate while still young eats at me. Every time I start questi...
by Snowjob
Fri May 10, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Global Wellesley + Wellington
Replies: 4
Views: 1610

Re: Global Wellesley + Wellington

The US:INT split bothers me on these, not enough US equity. Because of my preference for US stocks, both from a political (more capital friendly than rest of world) and economic (larger allocation to Technology as we are in a tech revolution) perspective, I probably would pass on these as single sto...
by Snowjob
Thu May 09, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait
Replies: 12
Views: 1963

Re: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait

I am thinking of doing some version of the "Swedroe Shuffle", a maneuver where Larry Swedroe put 100% of his stocks into Value during the late 1990's, maybe about 1997. He could see the valuation gap between Value and Growth keep widening and he felt it wasn't sustainable. I won't go to that extrem...
by Snowjob
Tue May 07, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to reduce dividends?
Replies: 27
Views: 4985

Re: How to reduce dividends?

How about screen for stocks that don't pay a dividend, select a sufficient number to achieve meaningful diversification and invest in those individually. Think like, Amazon, Google, Berkshire, O'riely Auto, Priceline, United Rentals, facebook, intuitive surgical, CBRE, Biogen. You might be able to p...
by Snowjob
Mon May 06, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 928

Re: Roth IRA Portfolio

Pretty heavy tilt to scv if that’s what you want but looks fine to me!
by Snowjob
Sun May 05, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?
Replies: 33
Views: 4682

Re: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?

I missed Christmas eve because I was slammed at work but for the first hour or so of trading was flat from that close on the 26th and I added a bunch of ETF equity exposure at the open. Worked out a lot better than my Friday after thanksgiving purchase :)
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

... Anyhow, the cost doesn't have to be high and with a side portfolio of about 50% with a 60:40 AA still allows plenty of rebalancing. (This is an overall 30:70 AA with only 28.5% of the bonds available for rebalancing) ... (This is a quick reply from work, my math might be wrong)...edit: May be I...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

The trick, as far as I'm concerned, is brutal honesty with oneself. With very few exceptions, retiring early is an extraordinarily risky proposition. For starters, the present stock market, nationally and internationally, is by historical standards very (almost prohibitively) expensive. Second, bon...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

I won't answer your specific question, but let me tell you what my wife and I have done. First, I worked to age 69, retiring this last November. My wife, 10 years my junior, is retiring this coming summer. We have a 21 year ladder of TIPS/I-bonds (the final 16 years of the ladder - 2024-2039) and z...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

This is hindsight bias. You are cherry picking one specific historical scenario and asking what people would do, implying they had perfect foresight. In the future, stocks could decrease further, stay the same for a long time, or increase dramatically. You are betting on the latter and ignoring the...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

Question for those of you who are planning a 30 year tips ladder. Sort of off-topic question but what is the maximum age that you would think someone should build a 30 year tips ladder. I expect to live 30 more years or so but I would have trouble pulling the trigger on such a ladder. In all honest...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

The question is interesting regarding behavior but the question also seems to contain a false assumption. The original idea of a TIPS ladder is not that it is held for rebalancing but that it is taken out the portfolio altogether and held as a pre-determined income stream. In that sense there is no...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

This is hindsight bias. You are cherry picking one specific historical scenario and asking what people would do, implying they had perfect foresight. In the future, stocks could decrease further, stay the same for a long time, or increase dramatically. You are betting on the latter and ignoring the...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

Question for those of you who are planning a 30 year tips ladder. Sort of off-topic question but what is the maximum age that you would think someone should build a 30 year tips ladder. I expect to live 30 more years or so but I would have trouble pulling the trigger on such a ladder. In all honest...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

If you plan to use your ladder to rebalance and selectively choose which rung to pull from, you're not really maintaining a ladder but rather your own actively managed TIPS fund, which may be fine, but seems to go against the purpose for which many investors construct TIPS ladders. Which I think is...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1293

30 year tips ladder people

Question for those of you who are planning a 30 year tips ladder. If early into your retirement, we experience terrible 1970's style inflation, are you going to just watch equities get cut in half and NOT re balance by selling rungs of your tips ladder 20-25-30 years out? I suppose if you have SO mu...
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Re: Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)

Yes, that is right. It is a version of the original concept advocated for example by Swedroe of 5/25 meaning a 5% absolute band and a 25% relative band. Naturally small allocations are best treated by the relative rule and large ones will more likely trigger under the absolute rule. Awesome, I thou...
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock or Target Retirement 2065 for a 20 year old?
Replies: 11
Views: 755

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock or Target Retirement 2065 for a 20 year old?

If I started all over again I would probably go 100% VT in the taxable account and never sell it. There is plenty of tax deferred space at most peoples advantage later to add tweaks to the allocation, but VT is the ultimate hands off, tax efficient fund. You take no sector or country bets, you just ...
by Snowjob
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Re: Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)

Can anyone explain to me in simple terms what these are calculating? Can you give us a reference to where in PV you are seeing this? Under the re-balancing bands option it asks if you to set absolute and relative deviations from your original asset allocation. if I set absolute at 10, and relative ...
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Absolute & Relative deviation (Re Balance / Port. Visualizer)

Can anyone explain to me in simple terms what these are calculating?
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YouTube TV is increasing their price - will you cancel it?
Replies: 63
Views: 4865

Re: YouTube TV is increasing their price - will you cancel it?

I’ll be canceling it was a great package before but the 10 dollar increase covered channels I didn’t care about.
by Snowjob
Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth More Popular Than Value?
Replies: 8
Views: 1290

Re: Growth More Popular Than Value?

I invest in the total market and ignore the concepts of growth and value. Life is easier that way. What UNG said Not being funny- what UNG said is good advice Yeah I think for me personally, a decade or two of under performance hoping for some sort of premium to show up is something that I can not ...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?
Replies: 85
Views: 9833

Re: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?

I'm only a couple years behind you and what helps me is discount my targeted retirement number by a reasonable rate of return to see if my savings is on target. For example if i want 1M a retirement, and the present value of that is 600k using a 3.5% real return, I'll compare that present value of ...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?
Replies: 85
Views: 9833

Re: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?

I'm only a couple years behind you and what helps me is discount my targeted retirement number by a reasonable rate of return to see if my savings is on target. For example if i want 1M a retirement, and the present value of that is 600k using a 3.5% real return, I'll compare that present value of 6...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 1665

Re: Good resources for liability matching

I would be checking into deferred annuities - You can expect x cash flow to start at time y. Yes I believe all the quotes I've seen are in nominal terms but the returns are staggering given a guaranteed product. ... However, if they wait until age 85 to collect, yes the returns can indeed be stagge...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1677

Re: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015

I've always wondered how closely this tracks... Hypothetically, If I were to sell my house and travel for a period of years, say 10. Would it make sense to take the proceeds from the house and then buy a REIT index. Yes its tax inefficient, but just assume I would use those distributions to pay my r...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good resources for liability matching
Replies: 21
Views: 1665

Re: Good resources for liability matching

I would be checking into deferred annuities -

You can expect x cash flow to start at time y. Yes I believe all the quotes I've seen are in nominal terms but the returns are staggering given a guaranteed product.
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16847

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

This is very different than the experience of people I know in this age group. The majority of those who have skills and were job ready (didn't require training) landed new jobs at equal or greater compensation, but I realized this is antidotal with a very small sample size. Also, I have known a sm...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16847

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

This is very different than the experience of people I know in this age group. The majority of those who have skills and were job ready (didn't require training) landed new jobs at equal or greater compensation, but I realized this is antidotal with a very small sample size. Also, I have known a sm...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16847

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

My plan is to have 75% of my desired retirement portfolio covered by Age 50. That would work out to ~ 100% of my needs and I hopefully could find some work to make up the difference. Social Security would be a cushion in the out years. 3% real returns over the next 10-15 years should get me there, I...
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80788

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In another thread you said 2.25M in Tips would have you step away from investing -- your 60% of the way there. That reply was specific to a question on how much is needed to live on $50K/year for life starting at age 40. Unfortunately, I spend more than that today, and am not opposed to taking on m...
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80788

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't think behaviorally I could stand being in cash and watching the market climb so I could never do this personally. I could be moderately levered and take some losses, for some reason that doesn't bother me as much, but being out of the market and missing the gains seems to hurt more - perhap...
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80788

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't think behaviorally I could stand being in cash and watching the market climb so I could never do this personally. I could be moderately levered and take some losses, for some reason that doesn't bother me as much, but being out of the market and missing the gains seems to hurt more - perhap...
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 790
Views: 80788

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I think your rational makes a lot of sense. Risk is heightened - The mood on this forum has been rather optimistic lately. We have many discussions about leveraging both equities and bonds, more interest in derivatives than I've ever seen in the past. Cash has fared poorly for years, so people want...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $4,026,858.95 Car or a Worry-Free Retirement?
Replies: 245
Views: 12132

Re: The $4,026,858.95 Car or a Worry-Free Retirement?

In my estimation, Americans overspend on the big 3: Too much car Glad I'm not a car person Too much house Guilty Too much eating out Guilty ... The only saving grace is I got into the house way after I built up my savings so I'm not behind the 8 ball as much as if I started with that thing!
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Accumulation/decumulation strategy
Replies: 12
Views: 1335

Re: Accumulation/decumulation strategy

You know what? I like it. Good simple formula to inform asset allocation relative to hitting a specific goal. It keeps you aggressive when you need the extra umpf and then tilts you conservative as your assets grow in excess of your needs. Edit: I think you should keep the formula in place and not c...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 stages of Financial Independence
Replies: 82
Views: 13672

Re: 3 stages of Financial Independence

4) Regret - Upon finding that one could/should have retired upon stage 2 or earlier entry into stage 3, rather than finding one unable to do the things that they planned to do due to illness, incapacity, or other factors. Hopefully people make decisions weighing the possible benefits and odds of su...
by Snowjob
Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 401
Views: 51096

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I've been posting here for a while and have been very open with how the 2007->2009 decline and layoffs of my friends and coworkers affected me psychologically. I spent the better part of the following decade in an aggressive save mode. I didn't want to feel helpless if this were to happen to me when...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When You Realized You Don't Need 401k in Retirement...
Replies: 34
Views: 3652

Re: When You Realized You Don't Need 401k in Retirement...

... 1) Does this mean that I am essentially building my 401k and investment accounts to pass along to my kids since I won't use them? 2) Does that mean I am over saving for retirement? (not sure if this is possible) 3) What do I want to do with my time and money that will be most fulfilling until I...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 11
Views: 1477

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Compare vanguards global min vol fund to the VT all world index and you can see the composition is far different so I would expect much different returns. Market Cap = 1/3 the size of the all world index Sector composition vs the word index is 3x the real estate, .5x the financials, 2x the utilities...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for 1-2 years rather than for a lifetime
Replies: 75
Views: 6570

Re: Saving for 1-2 years rather than for a lifetime

I took a different path. I worked and saved like crazy in my 20's. I only had 2 weeks of vacation a year and I never had a great business idea. I also lived through the great recession during this time. At one point I thought of throwing caution to the wind a few years after I graduated and striking...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 197
Views: 20214

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

That requires that the person who wants it knows that it's there. To paraphrase Tyler Durden, the first rule of owning gold is that you don't own any gold. A local resident didn't follow this rule, and when he went back years later to trade some Gold stashed in his house, he found it had been swapp...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 197
Views: 20214

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

That requires that the person who wants it knows that it's there. To paraphrase Tyler Durden, the first rule of owning gold is that you don't own any gold. A local resident didn't follow this rule, and when he went back years later to trade some Gold stashed in his house, he found it had been swapp...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 9129

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

I disagree, 4% fixed rate & tax deductible (depends on other factors) is still Ok. We don't know the OP's tax situation, but the mortgage interest is unlikely to be tax deductible given that the standard deduction is now so high....now $24,400 for married filing jointly in 2019. Also consider that ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 9129

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

My parents are in the opposite situation, have 2 mortgages, but it allows them to live a lifestyle they couldn't afford otherwise. When I was younger my dad joked that when he died he wanted to be down to his last dollar and that seems be the glide path he's on ! This doesn't make any sense. Is the...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House
Replies: 162
Views: 9129

Re: Getting a Mortgage when You can Pay Cash for a House

Any of us with a taxable account could pay off our mortgage but we are choosing not to are taking this bet in a way. I assume you have a long run way and taking on the incremental leverage makes sense in the first place. A taxable account with enough to payoff a mortgage likely has long-term gains ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 13
Views: 1155

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

I think the case to be made for min vol is the same as that for dividend focused investing. it helps combat bad investor behavior of selling when something is down. its possible that you could go 100% dividend growth or 100% min vol vs say 70%Market Cap / 30% Bond and outperform. You are taking more...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do REITs do in a recession?
Replies: 3
Views: 647

Re: How do REITs do in a recession?

Type of recession and starting valuation matter. Obviously a financial / RE crisis like '09 after a run up in valuation is probably the worst case imaginable. At a market valuation and a normal recession, I suspect they hold up a bit better, than the average, perhaps closer to what utilities and st...