Search found 1434 matches

by Snowjob
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 5712

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

If the SPY dividend is enough for you to eat steak on comfortably than you've saved plenty of money... this means the following - for all reasonable purposes, yes it will last forever - in a recession yes it will get cut, just sell a few shares to make up the difference The S&P yields about 2%, if y...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Take on the 3 Fund Model
Replies: 66
Views: 2954

Re: The Guy with the Weird Portfolio

Sounds like someone who likes real assets and real products who doesn't much care for tech an services. Not sure your preferences should bleed that far into your portfolio. Also I wouldn't marry myself to any individual stock. A trade? sure. But an allocation -- that's dangerous. Why not something l...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements blog - Argues for all-in-one fund
Replies: 21
Views: 3647

Re: Jonathan Clements blog - Argues for all-in-one fund

I'm about 80:20 I've tried to stay w/in the ben graham 75:25 constraints but I guess I've shifted a bit over the last year -- probably could rebalance. I'm in my mid 30s though and once I leave the work place that's when the I'll simplify much more. For now there is a bit complexity simply due to la...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2250

Re: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?

Guy gets way to much flack.

Closet boglehead no, but entertaining and informative yes. Sure there are hits and misses but overall I think there has been value.
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3568

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

What I was asking about is a similar analysis but computing SWR for a longer duration retirement, then see if the peak of the correlation shift to the right I that scenario. I personally don't see Kitces' analysis approach as being that informative as it seems to obfuscate the real takeaway with th...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Theory is that retirees overall spending tends to decline with age. How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? On the other hand, we have people with larger portfolios who simply lose in...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I think the only difference is I would limit my "DSP" to a vacation fund where as Will is looking at a much larger component of spending -- all discretionary. Any spending category that the retiree believes will decline over time as well as any categories that could be at least temporarily reduced ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

I think the only difference is I would limit my "DSP" to a vacation fund where as Will is looking at a much larger component of spending -- all discretionary. Any spending category that the retiree believes will decline over time as well as any categories that could be at least temporarily reduced ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Snowjob wrote Put a sum of money into 70/30 balanced fund, call it the big vacation fund and take a healthy 6-7% a year out to cover big trips until its depleted. At that point your living more local anyway and hopefully any natural spending declines would free up enough money for a trip here or th...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Theory is that retirees overall spending tends to decline with age. How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? On the other hand, we have people with larger portfolios who simply lose in...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 45
Views: 2356

Re: Does it make sense to change 3 fund portfolio into 2 fund portfolio by switching VTI and VXUS with VT?

your math i a little off. It should be (.04+.04+.11)/3 = about .06 for the combined vs .1 for VT. Additionally -- and way more importantly your allocation to US Stocks is about 66% of Equity today vs what would be about 50% if you just used VT. If you are ok with taking a global approach instead of ...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12194

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

While I understand that there is a natural decline I wonder how much of these surveys are skewed by people who are actually worried about running out of money. Nonetheless. I think if you plan on having some SPIA income the natural decline in spending is a reason one might opt for an annuity contrac...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Midlife investing crisis? At a crossroads; need book advice.
Replies: 29
Views: 2434

Re: Midlife investing crisis? At a crossroads; need book advice.

Hello, I'm performing my annual investment "check up" and I'm finding myself at a crossroads, so I'm looking for some advice on books to read. I'm well versed in Boglehead investing, well read on Bogle/Merriman/Swedroe/etc. I have the Boglehead basics down. I'm looking for book recommendations to e...
by Snowjob
Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?
Replies: 161
Views: 15250

Re: Did you celebrate when you finally hit $1m?

It definitely was one of those -- damn I can't believe it moments. I will really celebrate when my 401k hits 1M. Right now with my assets split between a Roth a brokerage account and 401k etc I can add it up and know I'm a millionaire, but it will be much more fun to just log into the HR site at wor...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees
Replies: 95
Views: 7110

Re: CNBC: Social Security buying power has slipped by a third for retirees

HAH!

Another reason for delaying social security as long as possible -- less time for inflation to screw you!
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2313

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

In the late 1800s, the UK was the dominant economy, and the financial wisdom said diversify internationally. Today, the US is the dominant economy, and the financial wisdom says international isn't needed. The UK is no longer the dominant economy, so why is now appropriate to assume that the US wil...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2313

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

Few things: 1. I'm glad you're oversaving relative to the "average" person. As you say, that will help you regardless of what returns are. However, truly what others do is of no consequence to you. 2. When you say "severe underperformance" you're saying what if the global portfolio underperforms on...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2313

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

... You're making the assumption (cognitive error) that just because the U.S. did better in the past, it will continue to do so in the future. It might. It might not. Since we don't know, we have to diversify our assets as much as we can (in the asset classes that have had positive real returns). I...
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz
Replies: 37
Views: 2313

Re: Portfolio Diversification, Long Before Mr. Markowitz

I started investing back in 2006. Since then, international has been a dog. A US stock portfolio would have generated 9% a year while a global (50/50) would have been 7%. Go back to 1998 when total international started and the performance difference would be even more pronounced since most of the p...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you retire on $2M?
Replies: 173
Views: 21113

Re: Can you retire on $2M?

That's actually what I'm shooting for so I'll say yes. Figure a 4% withdrawal rate to start, targeting 80k per year income. Social Security will come down the road at another 20k and is a really nice insurance policy if things going wrong. I don't expect to inherit anything but you never know, that ...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?
Replies: 7
Views: 759

Re: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?

vineviz wrote; Both value and quality factors definitely show return premia among larger stocks, not just among small stocks. Is that what you're asking? True according to theory based on long term backtesting. It is important however to realize that long term means really long term. Since 2002, mo...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?
Replies: 7
Views: 759

Re: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?

That said, reading vanguard's multi-factor fund literature, I was reminded of the notion that factor exposure was more important the smaller the marketcap. I don't think this is true, and I also don't recall Vanguard ever saying this. https://www.barrons.com/articles/3-things-to-know-about-vanguard...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14105

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

Well, below would be the 4% rule, and no social security. Pretty sure if your going to be accumulating these sorts of assets, even under reduced SS payouts you can bank on at least another 20k on top of this. With a paid off house, I find it hard to believe I'd need 10 million. Anywhere above 2M fr...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?
Replies: 7
Views: 759

Factor tilts -- only for small caps?

I've tossed around the idea of smart beta before and for the last 5 years have basically written it off as fad investing -- something that might work I just wasn't comfortable enough to use as a replacement to a market cap index product. Worse (before multifactor funds) you needed to added multiple ...
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 4083

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

So if a 4% swr gets me around a 95% success rate, and ill probabaly only have maybe a 60% chance of making it to the end anyway that seems like fairly good odds 4% is a reasonable swr to use. Throw in the ability to add anuities, cut back a little during lean years and the observed natiral decline i...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14105

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

love that "username". "snowjob" :shock: haha, promise i'm not trying to sell you a bridge in Brooklyn -- was a childhood comic book / action figure from the 80's when I grew up. I'm a skier and it just stuck with me (below), though the character had a little bit of BS about him, it was more mischie...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14105

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

Interesting source: Grant Cardone https://grantcardone.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx62-r83W2wIVBsZkCh1jrwJ6EAAYASAAEgJpfvD_BwE How Grant Cardone built a $350 Million Empire https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/072315/how-grant-cardone-built-350m-real-estate-empire.asp How To Get Rich b...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14105

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

Well, below would be the 4% rule, and no social security. Pretty sure if your going to be accumulating these sorts of assets, even under reduced SS payouts you can bank on at least another 20k on top of this. With a paid off house, I find it hard to believe I'd need 10 million. Anywhere above 2M fra...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?
Replies: 67
Views: 3041

Re: Job in MA, live in MA, RI, or CT?

For the love of god anywhere but CT!

But as a CT resident please live here and stimulate our economy -- misery loves company!
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Int. Growth vs. Vanguard Total Int.
Replies: 9
Views: 730

Re: Vanguard Int. Growth vs. Vanguard Total Int.

Vanguard international growth is an active fund. It has crushed the category average since it inception. A lot of recent performance have been due to its exposure to Chinese internet CO's. It has beaten the index fund since total international came out but the most pronounced bit of out performance ...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing
Replies: 23
Views: 2881

Re: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing

Random Walker wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:55 pm
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” :-)
...
Dave
That and it can stay irrational longer than you may be willing to hold on to undervalued securities!

Both of these are tough pills to swallow. I've taken my lumps over the years =)
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3328

Re: Social Security crossover point has arrived

I believe the question asked was what do YOU plan on doing about this -- I think that is a relevant question and we can discuss w/o talking about government solutions which will get locked. My plan is currently to use about 65% of social security payments as my planned number. I think this gives ple...
by Snowjob
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 18586

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I think the BH community has mostly rallied around around the same punch line: dynamic withdrawals strategies are superior to fixed. It's not clear to me that dynamic withdrawal strategies lead to the assumption that you need to save less for retirement. Is there some evidence of that? The wiki has...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Snowjob, (History) After my Mom died I realized I needed to get my act together. I started searching the web & landed on JL Collins site (the stock series). That is how I found Bogleheads & Vanguard because of JL Collins. I was analyzing his stock series (which is excellent & highly recommended). J...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

... So it's a mathematical fine balancing act. Between the Trinity Study & the dividend strategy going out for 65 years. It's a fine balancing act using mathematics. (Which I think is more your field than mine). That is why I said investors need to understand what they are doing & how the numbers w...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Genworth LTC (Again)
Replies: 19
Views: 1867

Re: Genworth LTC (Again)

Check out this article on an interesting new product from John Hancock. I'm decades from needing one of these but I found the concept interesting and if I was in your position this would be one on my radar. Hasn't John Hancock discontinued sale of LTC policies? Is there another source for such poli...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Yeah I've structured my portfolio with taxation in mind.

Wasn't a huge concern of mine early on I've seen the light. Efficient allocation and harvesting can make a world of difference.
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

drk wrote:
Sun May 27, 2018 2:03 pm

Wait, you're 24, looking to FIRE at 35, and still advocating high-dividend strategies? Come on, man, listen to what triceratop keeps telling you.
Complete tangent - I'm curious what words of wisdom triceratops has to say! I'm still young enough to learn the secrets!
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Question on the net worthify calculator - does it assume that your income is gross? I ask because we save 36% gross, but it works out to closer to 85% of our actual living income. We live on about $4000 a month and save about $3400 a month. I ended up tweaking the income $$ and savings % in order t...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Savings Rate --- 00%---- 15.60 Years to FI Savings Rate --- 10%---- 13.00 Savings Rate --- 20%---- 11.70 Savings Rate --- 30%---- 10.30 Savings Rate --- 40%----- 9.40 Snowjob, I don't see how you can get these numbers with the Networthify calculator referenced in willthrill81's first post . Assumin...
by Snowjob
Sun May 27, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

... Savings Rate --- 00%---- 15.60 Years to FI Savings Rate --- 10%--- 13.00 Savings Rate --- 20%---- 11.70 Savings Rate --- 30%---- 10.30 Savings Rate --- 40%---- 9.40 Yes, I've come to the very same conclusion lately. We could really stretch ourselves by extending it to about 60% in a couple of y...
by Snowjob
Sat May 26, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Savings Rate Grid
Replies: 47
Views: 6827

Re: The Savings Rate Grid

Hi Willthrill81, Thank You for the calculator. It's all about the savings rate! I've been averaging 65% of after tax income going straight into my funds. It's surprising how fast they are building up. I've seen the light & it's bright :happy Yes, the savings rate is what really reduces the time to ...
by Snowjob
Sat May 26, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Genworth LTC (Again)
Replies: 19
Views: 1867

Re: Genworth LTC (Again)

Given that interest rates seemed to have bottomed, I would expect there be a little less pressure on premium increases (not that rates were the only driver of course). Check out this article on an interesting new product from John Hancock. I'm decades from needing one of these but I found the concep...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 6880

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

I will maintain a small tilt to of about 5-8% of my portfolio to small and small value just in case I'm wrong but other than two distinct periods I don't see any difference. HOWEVER, they do seem to run at different times, so as part of an overall equity allocation I believe there can be a re-balan...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8539

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Among my circle of friends and acquaintances are a significant representation of people living less optimum retirements than they expected or hoped for due to mental disability, divorce, death of spouse, and if not counted as mental disability, drug or gambling addiction. There is no one I know of ...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8539

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss o...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 6880

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Similarly, Jeremy Siegel had noted long ago that the size effect is completely attributable to the single time period 1975 through 1983. Throw out that time period and the whole small-cap premium disappears. I verified this in Portfolio Visualizer and was amazed to see that from 1984 until now, the...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8539

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. The portfolio we have a range of expected outcomes and we plan for. Even in the disaster scenario most of us will be OK unless social security collapses. But medical issues, loss of...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 3114

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

In the US vs International threads, there are often the same arguments repeated by the "home bias is ok if it's the US" crowd. Mostly that the US economy is awesome, efficient, and stable, while other countries are risky, corrupt, unstable, and not as awesome. Also, in the past US has outperformed ...
by Snowjob
Fri May 25, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 10021

Re: How long to hold 80/20 asset allocation

Im reigniting this in lieu of all the volatility the past few months. I’m a 1980’s born millennial that didn’t experience the 2008 crash. I’m still at an 80/20 allocation and I know that the approximate 10% correction the past few months was nothing compared to 2008 or 2001 or 1987. I keep seeing 1...