Search found 1617 matches

by Snowjob
Wed May 27, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 12153

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

At the top of every dollar it already says “FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE” Not sure what you’re implying is new here... Two very different statements, no? If you don’t trust the Federal Reserve which has printed our money for over 100 years I’m not sure why you would trust anything else like bonds or stocks...
by Snowjob
Fri May 22, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11763

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Does anyone "rebalance" the way I do? Default 80/20. Then at every 10% down I go 5% more into stocks. At -10% I'm at 85/15 At -20% I'm at 90/10 At -30% I'm at 95/5 At -40% I'm at 100/0 I then ride the wave back up to the all time high, when I go back to 80/20. It's written in my IPS. This morning I...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 62
Views: 4535

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments. What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 62
Views: 4535

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments. What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 62
Views: 4535

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Historically real estate has done quite well. I'm not sure that I would let a virus with a vaccine 12-18 months away cause you to falter on real estate. In the very short term, it may struggle like most other investments. What if people realize they can be as productive without wasting 500 hours of...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath
Replies: 11
Views: 739

Re: Portfolio Size Based Allocation Glidepath

I guess if your looking at a size based glide path you could think about it like this. 4% rule was based on a 60/40 portfolio thus 25x = 15x stock / 10x Bond. First 15x saved should be allocated to stock, after which any +x goes into bonds. As you exceed the 25x or whatever your target goal is, thos...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10040

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

Listening to Grantham I'd probably have only bought stocks once in my life -- bottom of 2009. Of course if I was sitting on a giant pile of money and found his advice in 2000, this would have been incredible. long bonds till 2009. move to something like 50/50, gradually re balance out back to bonds....
by Snowjob
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10657

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

The common advice to decide on a stock/bond allocation and to rebalance to it periodically is unrealistic. In this market you would be selling bonds to buy stocks. VIX is 75, about 5 times its usual level. So after stocks have fallen drastically, and you have become substantially poorer, you should...
by Snowjob
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21076

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

I'm now 100% stock, been buying on the way down. I've been somewhere around 20% cash before. ready to just ride it out now.
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10319

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

We've heard many say that early accumulators should be praying for a market downturn because this results in higher expected forward returns. That being said, I'm wondering how many early accumulators are actually rejoicing for the current downturn. Personally, I'm grateful for it because now that ...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you were thinking about getting a divorce
Replies: 4
Views: 1501

Re: If you were thinking about getting a divorce

Only works if you give them the house and cash and you keep the stocks :D
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8146

Re: Hedonic Clock

Eight years ago I overcame my fear of heights, trained like a wild woman, and did a 7-day backpacking trip to the far reaches of Yosemite (it was amazing to be that far away from other people and to be immersed in nature.) I slept on a rock by a river under the stars one night...with my hiking boot...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8146

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8146

Re: Hedonic Clock

I only got two weeks off a year in my 20s and the recession hit right in the middle. Most of my friends lost their jobs for a while so I kinda spent a lot of time saving, learning out investing and just hoping I’d survive long enough at my job to ride it out. By the time I hit 30 I started to get an...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8146

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedonic Clock
Replies: 94
Views: 8146

Re: Hedonic Clock

Lily. Be very careful about staying over night at the top of Manchu Picchu. It is really high altitude and unless you have great O2 capacity or are altitude adjusted you will probably have breathing issues while sleeping or staying very long at that height. But do go and see it. I understand it is ...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10856

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

For now, it is going into VSCSX . Eventually, it will probably go into the stocks, after Roth Conversions. Did you buy these to hedge a specific liability? Maybe social security bridge? By moving to stocks you are effectively changing your asset allocation. I recall you into being into tips for a q...
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 50x = 100% Equities?
Replies: 86
Views: 5525

Re: Does 50x = 100% Equities?

Just put aside enough to buy an annuity to cover your expenses and then put the remaining 25x in the market.
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive
Replies: 464
Views: 41178

Re: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive

Transferred my remaining points to airlines and then canceled the card. Went with the capital one venture card as a replacement for now. 4% back no annual fee the first year, and 95 the second. Hopefully in a few years they will adjust the sapphire reserve benefits again to be more in line with what...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14937

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

... It is 27 years since existence of DFSVX compared to VIGRX, and the FF paper shows there was very little premium since the paper was published. If value were to explode as you say for a few years, it will only support what I have said, that Value / Growth styles go in and out of favor as cycles ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Debt payoff
Replies: 102
Views: 6539

Re: Debt payoff

... I’m learning. I see why most people see it as mistake. But if my end goal is for her to be student loan debt and car free in 3 years. House is payed off by the age of 50. Leading up for the next 30 years max our 401ks( I am only doing 7%- with a dollar per dollar 7% match. ) and also maxing out...
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A surge in the market next year?
Replies: 37
Views: 2282

Re: A surge in the market next year?

OP, It won't matter whether there will be a deal. The economy of many countries had slow down or will be slowing down. And, it will not be a soft landing. KlangFool Global manufacturing PMI's bottomed over the summer and have recovered a bit. Agreed, jobs also keep ticking up and sentiment (for now...
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A surge in the market next year?
Replies: 37
Views: 2282

Re: A surge in the market next year?

If you are looking to play events in 2020, maybe consider the following. To bet on the possibility of a trade deal with china, moderately increase exposure to industrial & multinationals that have a lot of china P&L opportunity and underweight some of the more domestic non-china plays. These china e...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 112924

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

My understanding is over the long term it should not make much difference between a US only portfolio compared to a US & International portfolio. Then I read some of the statistics earlier going back over 100 years! Perhaps the outperformance of the US may not continue and will evolve to the US and...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell equities to pay down mortgage
Replies: 22
Views: 2156

Re: Sell equities to pay down mortgage

I sold some taxable investments to get a nice big down payment in on my house. Its great not to deal with PMI and after a 10 year bull run its nice to know I took some off the table permanently. Not the most efficient economic decision -- yeah we should all have 50 year 3% mortgages forever -- but I...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay
Replies: 156
Views: 15259

Re: Possible Layoff: Need Assurance That We Will Be Okay

OP: This may be the greatest thing that ever happened to you. I Agree -- Sounds like the OP is experiencing a lot of stress disconnecting his life and identity from his job. This is awake up call to re-evaluate life priorities. He is asking for financial advice but does not really need it. People r...
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Forty Year Inflation Protected Retirement Plan
Replies: 12
Views: 1073

Re: Forty Year Inflation Protected Retirement Plan

Well there is a chance that the stable value fund does not keep up with inflation. Additionally the CD's and I-Bonds are likely in a taxable account and you will be losing money taxation every year. To take an extreme example: if Inflation ran at 10% a year, your I-bonds would double in value in 7.2...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 5718

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

Simple Suggestion - 400,000 VT - Total World Index, Global Cap Weight covers 98% of the world. 2.3% yield = 9,200. --- No cap gains, no need to re-balance or sell just collect the quarterly distribution and move on with your life. 50,000 - Immediate Annuity for a 72 y/o male. income at 330/month or ...
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.
Replies: 12
Views: 1006

Re: Managed fund vs index fund- will danoff.

If you cant chose and its bothering you, why not go 50% index 50% active? Even the father of index funds Mr Bogle recommended a 50 / 50 split between an active balanced fund (wellington) and a passive balanced fund (vanguard balanced index) as a long term allocation for an endowment. (I believe ther...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 123993

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

How much do you need to post (or expect to post given fluctuations) to maintain the short position and what qualifies as collateral? I assume the requirement must be generous in order to justify the leverage considering your large cash position in aggregate? An ultra bond has a notional value of $1...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Extreme Anxiety with Time/Money
Replies: 95
Views: 9801

Re: Extreme Anxiety with Time/Money

.... Not only that, but I absolutely hate paying anyone to do anything that I'm capable of doing myself (even with hours of obsessing and stress). I hate watching my hard-earned savings diminish. Right now, I'm maxing out retirement, have a sizable emergency fund (almost 1 year of income), and save...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 123993

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Haven't updated since mid-May. Used the downturn in late May / early June to rotate from long term bonds to equities (mostly int'l). Used today's equity selloff and bond rally to do more of the same. Now have essentially locked in 30-year borrowing rates of 2.24% to buy int'l equities. New allocati...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth > Taxable > tIRA
Replies: 200
Views: 16818

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

Honestly I think most people who do not have pensions would benefit from a mix of all three. I love the flexibility of taxable, doubles as the emergency fund, all sorts of products available, leverage etc. Roth has the tax exempt status, and the tIRA has the tax arb thing going for it. While I can b...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A little discouraged with earnings, is it really this slow?
Replies: 96
Views: 16391

Re: A little discouraged with earnings, is it really this slow?

You’re killin it. Stay off the 40 with $1mm threads. Good advice, there's always better there's always worse for literally everyone but 2 people on the planet. Timing is everything. You cant look at outcome, you only need to judge how efficient you are with your money, the rest will take care of it...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?
Replies: 144
Views: 16284

Re: Does saving 20% towards retirement starting in your twenties allow you to retire early?

I wish I had kept data to know how much I saved in my 20's. I THINK it was over 20%, but I can't really be sure. I'm 50 now and have been saving quite a bit more than 20% the past 15 years, but I'm definitely not in a position to retire early, but I've always been kind of low income, so even saving...
by Snowjob
Wed May 15, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 167
Views: 12057

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

Come on, for all the time spent here on this message board surely some of you could take a break from your frugal ways for a moment and celebrate with more than a cup of coffee. If that's celebration to you I can't imagine the lifestyle you choose to live WOW. OK I guess I'm guilty of much the same ...
by Snowjob
Tue May 14, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Situation for 28 year old
Replies: 16
Views: 1469

Re: Mortgage Situation for 28 year old

Funny, I'm in a similar situation as you. Age wise, mid/late 30's with about 14 years to go on the mortgage and retirement savings rate is down to about 15%. I used to save significantly more while renting and the change to a lower savings rate while still young eats at me. Every time I start questi...
by Snowjob
Fri May 10, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Global Wellesley + Wellington
Replies: 8
Views: 3434

Re: Global Wellesley + Wellington

The US:INT split bothers me on these, not enough US equity. Because of my preference for US stocks, both from a political (more capital friendly than rest of world) and economic (larger allocation to Technology as we are in a tech revolution) perspective, I probably would pass on these as single sto...
by Snowjob
Thu May 09, 2019 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait
Replies: 12
Views: 2199

Re: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait

I am thinking of doing some version of the "Swedroe Shuffle", a maneuver where Larry Swedroe put 100% of his stocks into Value during the late 1990's, maybe about 1997. He could see the valuation gap between Value and Growth keep widening and he felt it wasn't sustainable. I won't go to that extrem...
by Snowjob
Tue May 07, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to reduce dividends?
Replies: 27
Views: 5407

Re: How to reduce dividends?

How about screen for stocks that don't pay a dividend, select a sufficient number to achieve meaningful diversification and invest in those individually. Think like, Amazon, Google, Berkshire, O'riely Auto, Priceline, United Rentals, facebook, intuitive surgical, CBRE, Biogen. You might be able to p...
by Snowjob
Mon May 06, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1085

Re: Roth IRA Portfolio

Pretty heavy tilt to scv if that’s what you want but looks fine to me!
by Snowjob
Sun May 05, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?
Replies: 33
Views: 5033

Re: Anyone Else Buying Xmas Sale in Equities?

I missed Christmas eve because I was slammed at work but for the first hour or so of trading was flat from that close on the 26th and I added a bunch of ETF equity exposure at the open. Worked out a lot better than my Friday after thanksgiving purchase :)
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

... Anyhow, the cost doesn't have to be high and with a side portfolio of about 50% with a 60:40 AA still allows plenty of rebalancing. (This is an overall 30:70 AA with only 28.5% of the bonds available for rebalancing) ... (This is a quick reply from work, my math might be wrong)...edit: May be I...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

The trick, as far as I'm concerned, is brutal honesty with oneself. With very few exceptions, retiring early is an extraordinarily risky proposition. For starters, the present stock market, nationally and internationally, is by historical standards very (almost prohibitively) expensive. Second, bon...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

I won't answer your specific question, but let me tell you what my wife and I have done. First, I worked to age 69, retiring this last November. My wife, 10 years my junior, is retiring this coming summer. We have a 21 year ladder of TIPS/I-bonds (the final 16 years of the ladder - 2024-2039) and z...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

This is hindsight bias. You are cherry picking one specific historical scenario and asking what people would do, implying they had perfect foresight. In the future, stocks could decrease further, stay the same for a long time, or increase dramatically. You are betting on the latter and ignoring the...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

Question for those of you who are planning a 30 year tips ladder. Sort of off-topic question but what is the maximum age that you would think someone should build a 30 year tips ladder. I expect to live 30 more years or so but I would have trouble pulling the trigger on such a ladder. In all honest...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

The question is interesting regarding behavior but the question also seems to contain a false assumption. The original idea of a TIPS ladder is not that it is held for rebalancing but that it is taken out the portfolio altogether and held as a pre-determined income stream. In that sense there is no...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

This is hindsight bias. You are cherry picking one specific historical scenario and asking what people would do, implying they had perfect foresight. In the future, stocks could decrease further, stay the same for a long time, or increase dramatically. You are betting on the latter and ignoring the...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips ladder people
Replies: 22
Views: 1520

Re: 30 year tips ladder people

Question for those of you who are planning a 30 year tips ladder. Sort of off-topic question but what is the maximum age that you would think someone should build a 30 year tips ladder. I expect to live 30 more years or so but I would have trouble pulling the trigger on such a ladder. In all honest...