Search found 1478 matches

by Snowjob
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5608

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Funny, my answer would be EVERYONE. Young investors as any prolonged bear marked in stocks will lead to layoffs. The most overconfident aspect I have seen from even folks on this site is their confidence of not getting fired when the next downturn occurs. Retirees if timing is poor the sequence of ...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday is coming.. what's on your list?
Replies: 70
Views: 5773

Re: Black Friday is coming.. what's on your list?

probably a whole lot of things, I've recently moved / bought a house so there is a lot to furnish
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82272

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Anyone ever consider a weeknight meeting one of these days instead of a Saturday? Those weekends seem hard to commit to :) It would be difficult to find a free conference room (incl. video) where to meet in the evening. Plus some of our attendees have quite a drive, and it's much easier during week...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation
Replies: 5
Views: 638

Re: Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation

Sequence of returns always matters -- its just the opposite risk time horizon for an accumulator as it is for a retire. Basically the risk is always when you have your most dollars invested. For a retiree its in the beginning of the withdrawal stage and for the accumulator its at the end. In order t...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time periods for personal investment
Replies: 25
Views: 1741

Re: Time periods for personal investment

<<when you say save half your income correct?>> 4) I did not say that. I said either A) I saved 30+% of my gross income or B) I saved one year of my annual expense every year. KlangFool Ah I miss-interpreted the saving 1 years expense since I think intuitively ---> Income = Expense + Savings. If 1 ...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time periods for personal investment
Replies: 25
Views: 1741

Re: Time periods for personal investment

OP, My answer is probably totally useless to you. 1) I save 1 year of annual expense every year. 2) I keep 1 year of the emergency fund. 3) I believe in the efficient frontier of 70/30 to 30/70. So, essentially after 1 year of the emergency fund aka 1 year of working, I can start investing with an ...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time periods for personal investment
Replies: 25
Views: 1741

Re: Time periods for personal investment

I think meaningful withdrawal needs to be defined also. Your education example is great so I’ll bite. Assume all investments are in retirement accounts other than say a 20k saving account and my daughter was just born. If I wanted to save specifically for her education— something where all cumulati...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time periods for personal investment
Replies: 25
Views: 1741

Re: Time periods for personal investment

I think meaningful withdrawal needs to be defined also. Your education example is great so I’ll bite. Assume all investments are in retirement accounts other than say a 20k saving account and my daughter was just born. If I wanted to save specifically for her education— something where all cumulativ...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter
Replies: 362
Views: 82272

Re: Master Thread for Metro Boston's Chapter

Anyone ever consider a weeknight meeting one of these days instead of a Saturday? Those weekends seem hard to commit to :)
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5823

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

Right NOW is when we are in trying times with a long bull market and high valuations -- now more than ever is the time for more conservative portfolios. Not all valuation metrics are high. The forward P/E is just 17. Earnings are high, and backward looking metrics like CAPE don't adequately reflect...
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5823

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

hat logical reason is there for 2008's earnings being a determining factor of prices today? You certainly get a smoother result by 'cyclically adjusting' earnings, but that doesn't mean that the end result is appropriate. Agree, also, why would drastically minimize the step up in earnings due to co...
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40
Replies: 96
Views: 25431

Re: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40

Quick update: Portfolio $692k Mortgage 67% paid off I’ve slowed down on additional mortgage principal lately but may put a chunk toward end of year. I expect to be around $725k portfolio / 72% mortgage paid off by 12/31. Then $850k / 85% by 12/31/2019 Then $1M / no mortgage by 12/31/2020 I’ll be 37...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?
Replies: 83
Views: 7454

Re: Should we temporarily reduce our retirement contributions in order to pay off our $400k mortgage in 7 years?

Can you define the 60k post tax? If this is not encumbered by obscenely large capital gains, I would be in favor of cashing that in for a big one time payment against the mortgage. take a look at a mortgage calculator and run the numbers and see how much interest that will save you. I'm going to be ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4624

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

we do have the govt to thank for this. 401Ks, 529s, Roth plans etc. all ensure $$ gets invested in the stock market every month. Not sure I understand your main point but it does remind me of a thought I've had where if so many people automatically invest in the broad market doesnt that inflate val...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas leak detector?
Replies: 21
Views: 1165

Re: Gas leak detector?

My wife has an amazing gas detector. I just blame the dog. The good news is that natural gas and propane are not toxic. But of course they are explosive in the right concentration. And if you breathe exclusively gas and no air, you will be asphyxiated, but that's pretty hard to accomplish. LOL ^^
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1946

Re: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?

If you are targeting an AA of closer to 50/50, then you probably have substantial assets, are close to retirement, or both. If the above statement is true, then you should include the cash in your asset allocation and be done with it. An emergency fund is only necessary when your portfolio is small ...
by Snowjob
Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11704

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

If you lost your job in 2008, your not going all in on equity in 2009. That happened to me in April of 2008 at age 60. I went from having enough for a nice retirement to not having enough and facing up to a 30 year retirement. Jobs of any kind were not available. When you are 60 most of your job re...
by Snowjob
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11704

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Sometimes I read these comments and think I lived through a different recession 10 years ago than other posters. When your business grinds to a halt and everyone is being let go, when friends and family members have lost jobs and cant find work but still have mortgages and children to take care of....
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11704

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Sometimes I read these comments and think I lived through a different recession 10 years ago than other posters. When your business grinds to a halt and everyone is being let go, when friends and family members have lost jobs and cant find work but still have mortgages and children to take care of. ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

I am not sure what is going on with that quote about value and growth stocks. I understand Bogle to recommend "buying the market" and holding on, ideally never selling until you need to in retirement. He also recommends staying in United States equities. He also recommends finding some sort of perc...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=104246 Here's what he says in the article: "My idea at that time was if you accumulated money in growth, you have a higher percentage of your return without taxes; and a lower percentage of your return in income, which is highly taxed. Then, when you...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

Originally I replied to the below at the end of another thread and figured it wouldnt get much visibility for discussion as this was not what it centered around so I figured I would instead post this here. What interests me is not necessarily the boldface that Nisi added but the sentence that direc...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

Yeah he’s only talking about tax efficiency, this advice was pre-factor investing, not that Bogle would recommend factor investing even today. I didn't quote from or post a link to that article, not sure if that is adding confusion or not. I didn't quote from or post a link to that article, not sur...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=104246 Here's what he says in the article: "My idea at that time was if you accumulated money in growth, you have a higher percentage of your return without taxes; and a lower percentage of your return in income, which is highly taxed. Then, when you ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Bad Bogle Advice?

Sure he’s saying something different here in your article but im curious as to the quote that nisi had posted wgat was his rationale in that case?
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Bogle Advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Bad Bogle Advice?

Originally I replied to the below at the end of another thread and figured it wouldnt get much visibility for discussion as this was not what it centered around so I figured I would instead post this here. What interests me is not necessarily the boldface that Nisi added but the sentence that direct...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it
Replies: 69
Views: 6298

Re: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it

My own situation, I am looking at making an additional large payment up front to reduce the interest costs on the my loan. While they may not be "front loaded" as some have suggested, your payments are fixed through the course of the mortgage. If you are thinking of making a large prepayment then y...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation after paying off mortgage
Replies: 22
Views: 1835

Re: Asset allocation after paying off mortgage

Well the 6% he is ignoring dividends and interest, so if you figure 2% yield on the portfolio (conservative at 63/37) he is really expecting a 4% return (probably a little less). Not sure if that clears things up for people but certainly looking like hes in good shape at this juncture. I wouldn't ma...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it
Replies: 69
Views: 6298

Re: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it

My own situation, I am looking at making an additional large payment up front to reduce the interest costs on the my loan. While they may not be "front loaded" as some have suggested, your payments are fixed through the course of the mortgage. If you are thinking of making a large prepayment then y...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it
Replies: 69
Views: 6298

Re: Paying off mortgage with 87K left on it

.... Overall NW: $1.3M Income: ~125K/year salary + 10% annual bonus Tax Brackets: 24% federal, 0% state (using new 2018 tax law. Prev bracket was 28%) Emergency fund: $100k (conservative, yes: ~2 yrs' of expenses, high-yield savings acct) Savings/checkings: $40k (for general billpay, house projects...
by Snowjob
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else playing catch-up in their 40's?
Replies: 68
Views: 7315

Re: Anyone else playing catch-up in their 40's?

Don’t feel bad OP... I know this place can be discouraging with all the humble bragging of super savers and people with 1% incomes and large inheritances, but we are not all so fortunate. I did start saving in my 20s but only around 10%. I got very little help with college and I spent most of my 20...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Video Game Collection
Replies: 39
Views: 2309

Re: Video Game Collection

If anyone approached even 1/5th of that figure I would sell them :D maybe picking out one or 2 that were sentimental. Anecdotally, I also played magic the gathering and am planning to keep a few cards that I really enjoy artwork or similar on and sell the rest while there is still a market for them...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Video Game Collection
Replies: 39
Views: 2309

Re: Video Game Collection

....These days I'm just a casual player (own a Nintendo Switch with a few games) but the joys and dedication of serious collecting are long gone, especially after my first home purchase in 2010..... I would suggest the following. Since the joy is gone, plan to sell almost everything. Keep a few sen...
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: returns for the next decade
Replies: 40
Views: 4268

Re: returns for the next decade

My pessimistic return is 0% real. +1 I would add that retirees who find it difficult to live with this scenario undersaved and will face troubles. A 30-year retirement on zero real is a 3.3% WR, and if that’s too little that’s a shame... I think 0% over 30 years would effectively crush society cons...
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5090

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

On reason I cant wait to be debt free

I think there is a psychological pressure that comes with having the monthly car, home, student loan etc debts on the books. Those payment terms don't care if there is a recession / job loss or not.
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: returns for the next decade
Replies: 40
Views: 4268

Re: returns for the next decade

My pessimistic return is 0% real. +1 I would add that retirees who find it difficult to live with this scenario undersaved and will face troubles. A 30-year retirement on zero real is a 3.3% WR, and if that’s too little that’s a shame... I think 0% over 30 years would effectively crush society cons...
by Snowjob
Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SolarCity Customers -- how is your bill classified?
Replies: 0
Views: 174

SolarCity Customers -- how is your bill classified?

I have a US Bank+ card, and one of the 5% categories is for home utilities. Curious if one's solar city bill is considered "home utility" by by the credit card company. I tried to look up MCC codes for solar city but it looks like Visa has them as Electrical / plumbing / etc. Couldn't find a code fo...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?
Replies: 43
Views: 5624

Re: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?

I am also saying that overloading retirement accounts with bonds dooms such accounts to low returns. At the present time I am happy to have my tax-deferred retirement accounts doomed to low returns. I want my Roth accounts to run free and have higher returns. I want my tax-deferred accounts to simp...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 511
Views: 55993

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Great job everyone! Just did our end of month balance sheet -- we hit $500k in liquid investments (including our checking accounts and EF). Actually, we hit it last month but never added the retirement and non-retirement numbers together. The city just re-assessed our home value up another $90k. Bu...
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on paying off debt vs investing
Replies: 32
Views: 2287

Re: Thoughts on paying off debt vs investing

Young, 35 - at the beginning of earning potential. Sorry to burst your bubble but 35 is not young. I don't know where the official line is but 35 is getting within spitting distance of being middle age. I know someone that became a grandparent when they were about 35. If you plan to retire early th...
by Snowjob
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: # of accounts vs wealth perception
Replies: 14
Views: 1612

Re: # of accounts vs wealth perception

Not a bad thinking, chances are your work place 401k choices are fairly non-aggressive types. Consider thats your 'safer' investments, while you could be tilted slightly aggressive in Brokerage account(s), so you can get the risk to normal market (or slightly above-market) levels - hoping for bette...
by Snowjob
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: # of accounts vs wealth perception
Replies: 14
Views: 1612

Re: # of accounts vs wealth perception

Well, you could use an account aggregator that would display the balances of all your accounts in one place. Broken Man 1999 That is true, I do this for banks & credit cards for a snapshot of my ultra short term assets / liabilities but I guess I've been afraid of giving my investment account acces...
by Snowjob
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: # of accounts vs wealth perception
Replies: 14
Views: 1612

# of accounts vs wealth perception

Curious if anyone else has a similar reaction -- I have 3 main accounts where my retirement assets are spread out on a fairly even basis -- about 30% / 30% / 40%. While I have good idea what my liquid net worth is any any given time, the relatively low absolute number that I see when I look at any o...
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Done saving for retirement according to firecalc?
Replies: 51
Views: 4884

Re: Done saving for retirement according to firecalc?

I say coast and enjoy life a bit more. I'm ahead of target on the retirement side even with some conservative modeling and keep shifting more of my paycheck away from retirement savings and towards consumption today. Another option for you, if you are still wired to save. Is to start building a CD/I...
by Snowjob
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 6148

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

If the SPY dividend is enough for you to eat steak on comfortably than you've saved plenty of money... this means the following - for all reasonable purposes, yes it will last forever - in a recession yes it will get cut, just sell a few shares to make up the difference The S&P yields about 2%, if y...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Take on the 3 Fund Model
Replies: 66
Views: 3190

Re: The Guy with the Weird Portfolio

Sounds like someone who likes real assets and real products who doesn't much care for tech an services. Not sure your preferences should bleed that far into your portfolio. Also I wouldn't marry myself to any individual stock. A trade? sure. But an allocation -- that's dangerous. Why not something l...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements blog - Argues for all-in-one fund
Replies: 21
Views: 3841

Re: Jonathan Clements blog - Argues for all-in-one fund

I'm about 80:20 I've tried to stay w/in the ben graham 75:25 constraints but I guess I've shifted a bit over the last year -- probably could rebalance. I'm in my mid 30s though and once I leave the work place that's when the I'll simplify much more. For now there is a bit complexity simply due to la...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2375

Re: Is Jim Cramer a Closet Boglehead?

Guy gets way to much flack.

Closet boglehead no, but entertaining and informative yes. Sure there are hits and misses but overall I think there has been value.
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 49
Views: 3986

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

What I was asking about is a similar analysis but computing SWR for a longer duration retirement, then see if the peak of the correlation shift to the right I that scenario. I personally don't see Kitces' analysis approach as being that informative as it seems to obfuscate the real takeaway with th...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12728

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Theory is that retirees overall spending tends to decline with age. How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? On the other hand, we have people with larger portfolios who simply lose in...