Search found 95 matches

by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?
Replies: 120
Views: 8331

Re: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?

100% of my emergency fund is in my roth. I don't worry about calculating portfolio totals. When I make more money I'll keep some in a CD.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2177118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Gold is making a push for $1600/oz with the economy doing well!
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3004
Views: 288908

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

My leveraged account was up 2% today alone! I'm more concerned than happy though :P
by NotTooDeepLearning
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tips for 7-day driving tour from Boston
Replies: 23
Views: 1460

Re: tips for 7-day driving tour from Boston

I enjoyed the Franconia Notch area of New Hampshire. The Franconia Ridge Trail is a great hike. Mount Washington is a great hike as well. Both can be dangerous in bad weather.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 284
Views: 34492

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

I'm in my 20s and I'm 70/30 because I'm a perma-bear.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 117
Views: 15679

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

Bonds were getting killed yesterday, now they're killing it today.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it matter that much which bond funds you own?
Replies: 22
Views: 1431

Re: Does it matter that much which bond funds you own?

I think simplicity is really important when managing investments. I'd probably go with VCIT or BND only.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world
Replies: 38
Views: 3181

Re: Investing in a post 1971 fiat money world

Gold is a rock. It pays no dividends, no coupons, and no cashflows. The present value of future cashflows of gold is $0. In fact, it's negative because you pay money to store gold. This means that gold is not an investment, it is speculation. The only way to make money from gold is to find a "great...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US$ Strong/Weak Tilt Investing?
Replies: 21
Views: 798

Re: US$ Strong/Weak Tilt Investing?

I think this strategy is plausible. The value of the dollar seems to experience long cycles that at least seem on the surface to be correlated to US outperformance on the upswings and international outperformance on the down swings. I'm referencing this graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEX...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: buying VIX
Replies: 13
Views: 1250

Re: buying VIX

I put all my money in VXX. Only down 99.99% over the last decade.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Theory of Economics book recommendation desired
Replies: 29
Views: 2195

Re: Theory of Economics book recommendation desired

A very unconventional book I liked was Big Debt Crisis by Ray Dalio. It's actually free online, but I enjoy having a hard copy.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6554

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

The phrase "entitled" comes to my mind when I see this kind of back and forth. Only in America do we talk about people as if they are victims for simply having to work all their life (or until they hit a retirement age of some number) if they don't make enough to retire early comfortably. What's wr...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do you have to "beat the market"?
Replies: 97
Views: 6554

Re: Why do you have to "beat the market"?

If you're a normal American making 50-60k a year, accepting average returns means you have to spend your entire life putting away a large portion of your salary AND wait 30-50 years until you can retire comfortably. If you could juice those returns, you could save less and retire much earlier--drast...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: adult child moving back
Replies: 36
Views: 6183

Re: adult child moving back

I would encourage her to take only 1 or 2 classes (that are required prereqs or transfer to a 4-year program) the first semester if shes working as well. Getting back into the groove of coursework can be stressful and I think 4-6 courses right off the bat for a lot of people is way too much. Of cour...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 117
Views: 15679

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

It's one of those days (or weeks) where I'm just not gonna look at my leveraged holdings. I'll rebalance come December.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
Replies: 13
Views: 1140

Re: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

I skimmed the article. It seems the author just discovered that if you take the log of two things their relationship becomes surprisingly linear. Then when you transform the variables back to their original scale (the scale the variables actually exist in) the relationship disappears. Just shoddy da...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Best Investment in Your Opinion?
Replies: 23
Views: 2472

Re: What's the Best Investment in Your Opinion?

The best investment you could make is investing time to research the boglehead philosophy.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?
Replies: 24
Views: 3169

Re: Why are bonds falling when fed is expected to cut rates?

My thesis: The natural yield for (long term treasury) bonds is the long run economic growth rate + inflation. We should also note that bonds aren't declining in a vacuum. They spent the last month or two skyrocketing (yields plummeting). IMO this is because growth expectations declined dramatically....
by NotTooDeepLearning
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistics used to analyze S&P500
Replies: 18
Views: 1723

Re: Statistics used to analyze S&P500

You might be interested in cross correlations. It measures the correlation between two variables at different lag lengths, with a lag of 0 being the standard correlation. Correlations in finance are generally not static and vary throughout time. And of course there are thousands of interacting compo...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: specific investments when market crashes
Replies: 38
Views: 4340

Re: specific investments when market crashes

I shift 100% of my retirement to UVXY and wait until intuition tells me the crash is over.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What asset class is gold?
Replies: 41
Views: 3310

Re: What asset class is gold?

Id say its more of a currency than a commodity.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Even with the impressive backtest (where is the actual link/source?) anything this sensitive to a variable (10 month look back) always worries me. Curious how much the return drops with various shifts. I never wrote anything up fully describing my backtest. I did make it fully reproducible and anno...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I'm just now reading through the thread. Yes, trend following would not be a good choice for these types of instruments. While being in UPRO when it was above its 10 MMA (~210 DMA) and being in TMF otherwise had a CAGR of 43.85% from Jan., 2011, to May, 2019, and with only a 21% maximum drawdown, t...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I entered this strategy today, 50/50 upro/tmf. I will be hopping out of the upro half when retail sales or unemployment signals an imminent recession and spy goes below its 200 day moving average. Here are my backtest results from 1988 that compares buying and holding spy vs upro/tmf with timing sig...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!
Replies: 49
Views: 6581

Re: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!

From a millennial in their 20's, thank you Taylor! The world is a better place because of your service.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?
Replies: 50
Views: 6222

Re: How would you invest a lump sum of 3 million dollars in today's market?

I like the CD's until you're comfortable you know what you're doing idea. Investing is complicated and humans are prone to many behavioral mistakes. Take your time--even if it's a couple years--to learn about stocks and bonds and indexing. Read a couple good books. Read the boglehead wiki. Ask lots ...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 29830

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I don't understand the "forget gold, just buy bullets and canned beans" argument at all. The economic strife and currency collapses that make gold valuable do not coincide with this type of doomsday-ism. The economy in Germany during the post WW1 hyperinflation saw commerce and day-to-day living co...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tell us your side hustle success stories.
Replies: 68
Views: 7522

Re: Tell us your side hustle success stories.

Op My side hustle is personal finance, total investment approx 518K, present Value 1.4 Million been doing this since 1987 stock market crash. Care to elaborate? I'd like to go this route. I'm thinking leveraged risk parity plus volatility risk premium harvesting are the highest returning strategies...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I must say, the last week has been a stunning demonstration of risk parity in action. After seeing this (and many similar episodes in the past months), I’m tempted to move to VGLT in my primary 80/20 portfolio over the intermediate muni bonds, seems like the better risk to take over any potential m...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2177118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'll check out the podcast. When to get back in is the toughest part. 2 years is my arbitrary re-entry point for this new cash. I can't imagine doing this with my entire portfolio. It's only 10-15%. Essentially, when I save $100 a month, $50 goes to ETF/mutual funds and $50 goes to saving to wait f...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best day of the month to invest?
Replies: 41
Views: 4924

Re: Best day of the month to invest?

Your hypothesis is easily confirmed/rejected via backtesting. I'm so certain it doesn't make a difference that I'm not willing to put in the effort to test it though.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I have added NotTooDeepLearning's R script to the wiki. See: Using open source software for portfolio analysis (Risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs) If we need a dedicated support / discussion thread for the script, post here and I'll move the posts into a new thread. FYI - If anyone has g...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu May 30, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 289
Views: 20899

Re: Market timers thread

Who are these guys/gals that run and write for this site? Could find no background on that. Much has been written about how some top pros, probably those with the quantitative prowess and behavioral discipline you mention, have beaten the market, though not consistently. As for the rest of us, it's...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Wed May 29, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 289
Views: 20899

Re: Market timers thread

Who are these guys/gals that run and write for this site? Could find no background on that. Much has been written about how some top pros, probably those with the quantitative prowess and behavioral discipline you mention, have beaten the market, though not consistently. As for the rest of us, it's...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Tue May 28, 2019 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 289
Views: 20899

Re: Market timers thread

I think I'm a believer in market timing. I'm also quite certain that a market timer who has not developed a completely quantitative systematic strategy is virtually doomed for failure. Trading on intuition/feelings is literally a baseless trading strategy. A well developed strategy should have a com...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Tue May 28, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Just to clarify, a sell signal is when the unemployment figure moves ABOVE it's moving average, and SPY moves BELOW it's moving average, correct? Also, does the strategy recommend checking daily even though one of the metrics is monthly? Correct. It requires BOTH unemployment be above its moving av...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Tue May 28, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Operationally, does that mean that in practice you'd check the signal every morning when the stock market opens and then trade accordingly during the day as necessary? It seems like when the signal is close to the "boundary", you might get a lot of fluctuation between 0 and 1, leading to a lot of t...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Tue May 28, 2019 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If there is no rebalancing built in the analysis, and the strategy is to switch to 100% bonds/cash at the sell signal.. How is the constant 50/50 maintained after a sell signal is triggered? In order for this analysis to be viable there also has to be a buy signal to rebalance back to 50/50. Otherw...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon May 27, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Interesting. Seems like a big picture macroeconomics way to sell equities. I like that it gives the investor an educated justification to sell equities in-line with typical behavior/tendency to sell when the market is down. Did your method entail monthly rebalance / macroeconomics review, inline wi...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Mon May 27, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thanks. Reinstalled Rstudio this morning... Am I correct in saying that there are no sell signals since 2010 - and thus that the performance of the strategy is mostly attributable to coming out of 2008 drop better than the other strategies? (I think the signal also "worked" in 2001). The signal has...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sat May 25, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1716

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

If A is the opposite sign of B, and B is the opposite sign of C, then it is necessarily true that A has the same sign as C. Transitivity I think?

Edit: I guess it is possible to have three things that are pairwise negatively correlated.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Sat May 25, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

My strange passion for reproducible research motivated me to get this done. I've uploaded a "bundle" with the code and data here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1SKLGLJ_Vx5MVxYZWb2hmu-znYAaJkf9p?usp=sharing I'm not certain there is no personally identifiable information there, so please let ...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri May 24, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Rk98zpY5TUK8MZb wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 7:19 pm
Yeah I've got it all set up in R
Would you put the R script somewhere for us to see? Could use some motivation to go back to learning R..
I'll clean it up and upload it somewhere this weekend.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri May 24, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Since it seems you are setup to test quickly, what would it be if you swapped between 100% UPRO and TMF? Yeah I've got it all set up in R so I can test any strategy at will. Switching doesn't do much good imo, roughly 30% return, 42%sd, 61% drawdown. Going long upro only when you've got the signal ...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri May 24, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 4:33 pm

Interesting. Did you move to cash or 100% TMF?
The above stats are for cash. I just tested moving into 100% TMF and it juices things up a little. 27.7 return, 27 sd, 43% drawdown.
by NotTooDeepLearning
Fri May 24, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 327269

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Applying philosophical economic's trend strategy appears to significantly improve risk adjusted returns. I did a backtest using the simulated data back to 1988 and the strategy returns 23.5% vs 20.8%, sd is 23.2% vs 29.4%, and the worst drawdown is 34.5% vs 65% compared to buy and hold. Philosophica...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu May 23, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4878

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

When bogleheading, there is no perfect portfolio, but there are a lot of decent portfolios. The main features of the permanent portfolio are the 25% cash and 25% gold. Warren Buffet thinks gold is useless, Ray Dalio thinks gold is a necessity. You'll find equally diverse opinions here. The relevance...
by NotTooDeepLearning
Thu May 23, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12575
Views: 2177118

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think whats more interesting than any drops is that the S&P was higher in January of 2018 than it is now.