Search found 1106 matches

by bluquark
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation
Replies: 29
Views: 2248

Re: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation

In short, it's the diversificaton of global stocks that hedges hyperinflation risk and so many other risks. Its less likely that all the markets in the world will succumb to any given risk, than it is that one country's market will. Strictly speaking, I agree with these statements. However, the sam...
by bluquark
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation
Replies: 29
Views: 2248

Re: Bernstein’s Deep Risk: Global Equities Hedge for Inflation

In general, I agree but I am curious what could be the possible outcome of equities denominated in a currency that fails due to hyperinflation. Say you have broad allocation to equities but the currency they use as a unit of account fails. I would assume this would cause major financial hardship on...
by bluquark
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107186

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I understand your point... But we should point out that NOT market-timing is the new idea... Most people "out there" think market-timing and picking stocks and listening to all the gurus on TV and in print is the correct way to invest. Boglehead ideas are slowly gaining ground, but we're still the ...
by bluquark
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to sell all Bond Funds/ETFs and move into the cash/CDs/MoneyMarket?
Replies: 2
Views: 790

Re: Is it time to sell all Bond Funds/ETFs and move into the cash/CDs/MoneyMarket?

No. The first article spends most of its space debunking a few myths about bond returns, but doesn't properly make the case that bonds would be a worse investment than cash moving forward for long-term investors. The basic fact remains that today's bond yields are somewhat higher than cash interest ...
by bluquark
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonds in taxable now?
Replies: 8
Views: 1126

Re: Bonds in taxable now?

It's a complicated question with a lot of conceptual tangles and idiosyncratic factors, but in my view, the weight of the arguments is definitely that for the majority of people who have taxable accounts, and for the majority of conceivable future sequence of returns, bonds in taxable is now the bes...
by bluquark
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12718

Re: Investing in International Stocks

It's also very odd that we are seeing such poor growth in Emerging markets when they are having such rapid GDP growth. Where is all this growth being lost? It's been going to income or private equity of residents of those countries. Sometimes it's going to developed multinationals not listed on EM ...
by bluquark
Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High interest savings account
Replies: 28
Views: 3454

Re: High interest savings account

Have you considered a short/intermediate bond fund/ETF at a brokerage? You lose the guarantee of absolutely no loss of principal but it's not clear this is for an emergency fund where that matters, and you get all of the other things you want. In particular for "4. Have a decent interest rate." you ...
by bluquark
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VMLTX
Replies: 4
Views: 486

Re: VMLTX

Limited-Term Tax Exempt is one of Vanguard's safest muni funds. Although it's slightly more risky than a money market, they still describe it with the lowest risk rating of 1 out of 5. Your plan sounds fine to me.

On a $100K investment, make sure to use the Admiral Shares version, VMLUX.
by bluquark
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Else Left To Do? (Investing-wise)
Replies: 4
Views: 477

Re: What Else Left To Do? (Investing-wise)

I would consider including at least 20% international stocks (e.g. VXUS), as well as at least 20% bonds (e.g. IUSB). 100% US stocks is not that diversified, and now that you're entering middle age it's time to start being slightly more conservative. That said, investing should not be exciting, so th...
by bluquark
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investments [401(k) terminated]
Replies: 5
Views: 486

Re: Investments [401(k) terminated]

bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:17 pm
50-50 if you want 30% stocks/70% bonds
Vanguard offers a 30/70 fund directly too, Target Retirement Income Fund: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VTINX
by bluquark
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock
Replies: 43
Views: 3089

Re: How to approach a friend: a first time investor bought a single stock

He bought one stock, but has he said he's rejecting passive investing? If so, I 'd be curious to know his reasons. The reason - he uses software created by this company and software is good. Yes, we all know it is a flawed reasoning. On top of that, he said had a feeling this stock was going to go ...
by bluquark
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation across multiple account types and using M1 Finance auto balancing with multiple account types
Replies: 8
Views: 483

Re: Asset allocation across multiple account types and using M1 Finance auto balancing with multiple account types

I think mirrored allocation is fine for you because you're only 10% bonds anyway, and your tax rate is lower than most Bogleheads who obsess over taxes. For what it's worth, at the current low yields, bonds in taxable is probably better. But it's not worth the complexity especially since you say you...
by bluquark
Sun May 31, 2020 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will this decade play out like the 1960s?
Replies: 7
Views: 1482

Re: Will this decade play out like the 1960s?

Well, all of those factors you mentioned are US-specific, so if you're worried about them, invest internationally. During the 70s, the Japanese stock market for instance tripled: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei ... chart-data
by bluquark
Sun May 31, 2020 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore?
Replies: 25
Views: 3735

Re: What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore?

"accumulate some property yourself." Easier said than done in an era where for a family trying to live off an unskilled worker's wage, the cost of housing makes it hard to save, the cost of education makes it hard to go to college without debt or scholarship, and the stress of night shifts makes it...
by bluquark
Sat May 30, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An NTSX alternative in taxable?
Replies: 27
Views: 1399

Re: An NTSX alternative in taxable?

Back of the envelope math: Total market pays out 2% yield annually, Growth pays out 1%. Assume total return is 8% for both funds. 33% tax cost paid annually on qualified dividends. That means my annual out of pocket tax cost is 0.7% for total market and 0.3% for growth. In other words I am able to ...
by bluquark
Sat May 30, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An NTSX alternative in taxable?
Replies: 27
Views: 1399

Re: An NTSX alternative in taxable?

Growth is 97% correlated to TSM, with half the tax cost. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VIGRX+VTSMX&timePeriod=1&tradingDays=120&months=36 Honestly I’m not sure why it’s not the standard recommendation for taxable. It's a bit hard to summarize in a post but I'd r...
by bluquark
Sat May 30, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An NTSX alternative in taxable?
Replies: 27
Views: 1399

Re: An NTSX alternative in taxable?

To be clear, I picked VUG not for any desire to tilt to growth but purely for its lower yield. If there was a total market fund paying 1% SEC yield I’d be happy to use it over VUG. Got it. Well, I just did a bit of back-of-napkin math and if you used a world-market-cap portfolio instead at 20% qual...
by bluquark
Sat May 30, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: An NTSX alternative in taxable?
Replies: 27
Views: 1399

Re: An NTSX alternative in taxable?

I guess it seems like to me like too small a tweak to be worth the extra complexity. You get some hypothetical extra negative-correlation, a bit less and more expensive leverage, a bit less ER and a bit more yield. Personally the idea would appeal to me more if one took the opportunity of the manual...
by bluquark
Sat May 30, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1299

Re: Global Market Portfolio

As for junk bonds, pink sheet stocks, lottery tickets, and casino games, I consider them gambling . Junk bonds don’t belong there because the majority of them are less risky than large-cap stocks. (Just compare how deeply junk bond funds vs total stock funds dipped in March.) Sounds like reaching f...
by bluquark
Fri May 29, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1299

Re: Global Market Portfolio

I just look at https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vt . It has a pie chart updated monthly. After US recovered better than ex-US from the crash, the market weight is about 60% US.
by bluquark
Fri May 29, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Voo - Robinhood or Vanguard?
Replies: 41
Views: 1749

Re: Buying Voo - Robinhood or Vanguard?

There is no reason to use Vanguard brokerage to buy Vanguard ETFs. There are good reasons to use them if you use Vanguard mutual funds (fees, selection, autoinvestment, option for tax-free conversion to ETF later), so it comes back to the ETF vs mutual fund question that you will find many past thre...
by bluquark
Thu May 28, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Triggers for AA changes?
Replies: 15
Views: 928

Re: Triggers for AA changes?

After consideration last year (including this thread I started ) I put the following AA-change triggers in my IPS: Valuation adjustments: - Hold 70/30 when Damodaran's 12-month adjusted ERP is between 4% and 6% - When ERP has been outside of this band for more than 3 months, adjust AA as follows: - ...
by bluquark
Thu May 28, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Only tax-advantaged option is a Roth?
Replies: 14
Views: 1095

Re: Only tax-advantaged option is a Roth?

Maybe look into EE bonds? Tax-deferred for 20 years at 3.5% interest, limit of $10K purchase a year.

But yeah, tax disadvantages are part of the price of being an expat, generally speaking.
by bluquark
Thu May 28, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Triggers for AA changes?
Replies: 15
Views: 928

Re: Triggers for AA changes?

It sounds like you're describing valuation-based asset allocation. Here's one past thread discussing it: viewtopic.php?t=168852
by bluquark
Thu May 28, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates
Replies: 9
Views: 688

Re: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates

Though these are target-date funds, funds need to keep trading because investors buy and sell these funds. You can not compare them with buying X number of individual bonds and holding them to maturity. That's mostly another way of talking about the premium, right? When not enough underlying identi...
by bluquark
Wed May 27, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3744

Re: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds

Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds? How does that logic work? Just because bond prices are high, that doesn't mean stock prices are lower. Stocks are just as risky as they always were. Are you saying that when bond prices where low, you were only willing to lose, say, 25% of your portfolio but now tha...
by bluquark
Wed May 27, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3744

Re: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds

https://i.ibb.co/jzbHDKV/Screen-Shot-2020-05-26-at-10-05-58-PM.png This particular graph mostly just demonstrated why "reciprocal of (nominal) bond yield" doesn't make sense to consider as a valuation metric though. The bond side skyrockets when there are tiny changes near zero even though an inter...
by bluquark
Wed May 27, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3744

Re: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds

Prof. Damodaran has computed the equity risk premium every month via a standardized data-crunching process for the last 10 years. His current estimate is 5.39% (as compared to money markets, not 10-year treasury I think). But there's a big caveat here in that this premium is usually computed via 12-...
by bluquark
Wed May 27, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard tab for 1-day change
Replies: 1
Views: 337

Re: Vanguard tab for 1-day change

Balances and Holdings -> Balances by date -> select yesterday's date in the dropdown menu, then you can see yesterday's valuation per account and in aggregate. Then just subtract from today's value to know the change. In general if you want an easy way to visualize things that interest you personall...
by bluquark
Wed May 27, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates
Replies: 9
Views: 688

Re: iBonds and BulletShares - Diversified Corp Bond ETFs with Target Dates

I've called them "target-maturity bond funds" myself. It seems like a type of fund that ought to exist and I like them in principle. It seems some people, especially those accustomed to CDs, prefer ladders of individual bonds because they can't wrap their heads around the rolling-maturity behavior o...
by bluquark
Tue May 26, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How is the Amazon Prime Rewards Visa Signature Card
Replies: 41
Views: 2357

Re: How is the Amazon Prime Rewards Visa Signature Card

I've been using this card for Amazon purchases (and as my primary card for non-Amazon purchases for a few years) for about a decade now, auto-paying it out of a checking account from a non-Chase bank. I never had a single problem. I'd assume the negative reviews are outliers because the vast majorit...
by bluquark
Sun May 24, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convertible bond ETF for less risk with some upside
Replies: 17
Views: 998

Re: Convertible bond ETF for less risk with some upside

Another thing to note is that the $200 billion or so total issuance of convertible bonds is minuscule really. For comparison, Microsoft has a market cap of $1400 billion. So a portfolio consisting solely of shares of Microsoft is in one sense more diversified than one holding an index of all convert...
by bluquark
Sun May 24, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Convertible bond ETF for less risk with some upside
Replies: 17
Views: 998

Re: Convertible bond ETF for less risk with some upside

iShares ICVT is the cheapest-ER index ETF for them I think. Convertible bonds tend to get issued mostly by companies with unpredictable futures, and the bond yields as such are low compared to ordinary junk bonds issued by the same companies. So you have to weigh those negative qualities against the...
by bluquark
Sun May 17, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying carnival cruise ship bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 1539

Re: Buying carnival cruise ship bonds

Uncompensated risk is a worse idea with bonds than stocks because of the negative skew of bond risk. With an individual stock, at least you can get ultra rich if you’re lucky, so it’s possible to be risk-attracted and not demand compensation for it. Here 11% is the best case scenario. And the best c...
by bluquark
Fri May 15, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing!
Replies: 36
Views: 2504

Re: Stop me from market timing!

My gut had been telling me the market was irrationally behaving and due for another crash for the whole recent "dead cat bounce" so I recently decided to test my gut. On April 8, I set up a paper trading account with thinkorswim and "bought" a simulated $50K of Jun 30 expiry SPY 269 put options, at ...
by bluquark
Fri May 15, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which one is better EM bonds or EM equities or both?
Replies: 41
Views: 1719

Re: Which one is better EM bonds or EM equities or both?

I took a close look at the history of EM bonds (as well as poor-credit-risk sovereign bonds before that) and chose to invest 1/3 of my bonds in them, for a total of 10% of my portfolio. It's a sound investment, particularly if held as a small part of a portfolio (so the special risks wouldn't wipe m...
by bluquark
Thu May 14, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's after-hour trading ?
Replies: 7
Views: 925

Re: What's after-hour trading ?

Why don't more people show up? What are the problems preventing them? Shouldn't the high spreads attract more market makers/arbitrageurs? And with US stocks being traded worldwide, isn't there a lot of desire to trade at all hours?
by bluquark
Wed May 13, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63756

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

striker79 wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 11:37 am
I will also go in earlier if FED announces it will start buying equities to reinflate the market bubble.
That is an argument for going in now, not after the announcement. The fast money will instantly pop the price and you'll end up buying high
by bluquark
Tue May 12, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard total world stock - Will it change ratios with target date funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 839

Re: Vanguard total world stock - Will it change ratios with target date funds?

maybe every 6 months to a year I'll check it to see how it is compared to market outlooks. If the market changes I could switch funds. Why would you switch funds if the market changes? What sort of changes would you be looking for, and what would you hope to achieve by doing that? None of Vanguard'...
by bluquark
Tue May 12, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard total world stock - Will it change ratios with target date funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 839

Re: Vanguard total world stock - Will it change ratios with target date funds?

Vanguard Total World Stock doesn't target a particular stock/bond ratio like the target funds do in the first place. It simply indexes across the entire world, that is, it gives a global market cap weight for each company on a mark-to-market dollar basis. If, hypothetically, the US stock market coll...
by bluquark
Mon May 11, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Funds in taxable vs annuity
Replies: 3
Views: 310

Re: Funds in taxable vs annuity

My gut reaction is option 1 because this sounds like a clunky inefficient thing I'd want to simplify out of my life and in my regular taxable investments. But the answer really depends on your tax brackets over your lifecycle. In particular, if you are currently in a high bracket but expect to be in...
by bluquark
Sat May 09, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change my "aggressive" 401k to a 2 fund investment?
Replies: 20
Views: 1198

Re: Should I change my "aggressive" 401k to a 2 fund investment?

Vanguard Developed Markets is about 90% the same thing as Vanguard Total International, so I'd go with that one. The mix of funds you're in now probably has higher ERs and it's hard to make heads or tails of the strategy behind it, so your plan sounds good. At 40 years old and "OK with risk", I woul...
by bluquark
Sat May 09, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1672

Re: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?

I am trying to understand your logic with the the foreign tax credit. Why hold VTWAX in an IRA? Wouldn't it make sense to put all foreign in taxable and domestic in the IRA? I’m also considering doing exactly what lostdog is doing the next time I have an opportunity to reshuffle. The logic is that ...
by bluquark
Fri May 08, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?
Replies: 23
Views: 1672

Re: Gripes with VT (Vanguard Total-World ETF, ER .08)?

Here's the sort of gripe you were looking for: This year, VT/VTWAX stopped reporting foreign taxes paid so it's impossible to claim the foreign tax credit. It seems to be because of an IRS rule that only funds >50% invested in international can report it, which was not respected in the past but I gu...
by bluquark
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?
Replies: 24
Views: 2599

Re: Did I make a mistake with my bond allocation switch?

Yeah, you sold low, but that's water under the bridge now. Your reasons for disliking corporate bonds (too much correlation) and stable value (not enough yield) are sound. Given the choice between the two, I would be in Total Bond in the 30-year timeframe, especially as it's only 30% corporates anyw...
by bluquark
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?
Replies: 31
Views: 3375

Re: Why are stocks down "only" 10% YTD?

Of course this is correct. I'm trying to reconcile this with theory. How would I explain it "on my finance exam". Prof Damodaran is a specialist in valuations and he has a blog where he models how the market is currently behaving. His basic theory is that the market tends to aim for an equity risk ...
by bluquark
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [One stop shop with BoA / Merrill Edge]
Replies: 34
Views: 2043

Re: [One stop shop with BoA / Merrill Edge]

I use Merrill Edge with a portion of my savings for the Preferred Rewards bonus. But it's a barebones brokerage and there's no meaningful integration with BoA. I can instantly buy ETFs from cash from the checking account and I can transfer dividends to the checking account, but these are also standa...
by bluquark
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any One-More-Year FIRE people sticking to their plan?
Replies: 72
Views: 8386

Re: Any One-More-Year FIRE people sticking to their plan?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/religion-workism-making-americans-miserable/583441/: There is nothing wrong with work, when work must be done. And there is no question that an elite obsession with meaningful work will produce a handful of winners who hit the workist lottery: busy, ...
by bluquark
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Indexing fail?
Replies: 33
Views: 3149

Re: Indexing fail?

They make up a very tiny percentage of TSM - I think they make up the following: Delta 0.05% of TSM Southwest 0.05% of TSM United and American - 0.02% each Carnival Cruise - 0.02% Total made up there about 0.15%. Which means 99.85% of TSM is not made up of these. Source ITOT holdings https://www.is...
by bluquark
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When Is The Right Time to Reduce Portfolio Risk
Replies: 20
Views: 1534

Re: When Is The Right Time to Reduce Portfolio Risk

I'm not sure reducing stock below 25% reduces risk anymore. The portfolio risk profile starts to become dominated by interest rates and inflation, and the different risks of stock are a useful diversifier to that. I simply would like my portfolio to maintain pace with inflation. If that 75%/80% of f...