Search found 299 matches

by rockthisworld
Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 262
Views: 33293

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I stopped investing in my taxable back in March and can't bring myself to start again. I'm still investing automatically in my 401k. I'm just holding onto my cash in case of a worst case scenario if society collapses and I need liquid funds. I don't mean the case where you'd have to live in a bunke...
by rockthisworld
Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Dollar
Replies: 2
Views: 285

US Dollar

My question to the brain trust that is Bogleheads. What is the end game for our debt based monetary system? Can it go on forever?
by rockthisworld
Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 262
Views: 33293

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I stopped investing in my taxable back in March and can't bring myself to start again. I'm still investing automatically in my 401k. I'm just holding onto my cash in case of a worst case scenario if society collapses and I need liquid funds. I don't mean the case where you'd have to live in a bunke...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 374
Views: 70997

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

35% cash is not a long term position for my portfolio hey if we see a sell off and people cash out gold and we see a buying opportunity I will be there. If I see a 20% drop I will slowly begin to DCA into my permanent position.
by rockthisworld
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression 2.0
Replies: 21
Views: 1809

Great Depression 2.0

Anyone concerned with the biggest drop in GDP? Will asset prices continue to climb or another drop? We don’t truly know what the future brings but there are signs within the economy and the markets that lead me to stop contributing towards VTSAX and to build up cash reserves and await another buying...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4427

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

If Gold can get close enough to 0% real return then that would be good for that portion of my portfolio.
by rockthisworld
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 374
Views: 70997

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I’m more worried about the long term dollar. Would rather safely store gold bars then sell in 40 years as I need to spend that down one day. But I still have money in stocks too. I just think I don’t trust the system.
by rockthisworld
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 374
Views: 70997

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I was at 100% stocks until last week and sold some stocks and my new allocation is 55% stocks, 10% gold, 35% ally bank high yield savings (now at 1%). Next buying opportunity I will deploy some cash. Needed the cash and happy to sit on it for awhile. Given today’s high valuation and the FR propping ...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 9722

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

So what happens if the dollar is devalued. All I am saying is holding some physical gold in your portfolio is not a bad option considering the safety net it provides. We all know if you are trying to generate positive real returns and growth then gold is not ideal. But I doubt anyone is 100% gold lo...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 9722

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

I’m okay if gold returns 0% real it’s just a safe haven against the devaluation of currency. but are you assuming inflation is 0%? because if inflation is >0% you'll need a higher return from gold than 0%, otherwise it will have lost value. You may counter, sure, but if it loses LESS than cash isn'...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

Well I would go up from where I stand at 57% equities and depending how far things fall I will add slowly depending how far the fall and add to a max of 70%.
by rockthisworld
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 9722

Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

https://goldiraguide.org/gold-price-predictions-for-2030-5-experts-weigh-in/ I know it’s an article trying to push gold however is it true because it is limited in quantity that it will hold it value better than a fiat currency such as US Dollar which is being printed at an incredible rate. People h...
by rockthisworld
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I know I’m young but being that heavily weighted is tough to stomach. 60% VTSAX is still the way to go but there are a lot of people who think stocks are overvalued myself included. I have no problem with cash on the sideline to deploy. I definitely want 10% gold as a hedge against inflation and a f...
by rockthisworld
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD maturing
Replies: 30
Views: 2198

Re: Ally CD maturing

Ally Bank High Yield Savings 1.1% all day! Great place to park cash until you are ready to deploy. Too bad it will be only 1% tomorrow... You are right. 1% is nothing but for those who want to take some profits and park some cash until the next opportunity they feel is worth it. I would still rathe...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD maturing
Replies: 30
Views: 2198

Re: Ally CD maturing

Ally Bank High Yield Savings 1.1% all day! Great place to park cash until you are ready to deploy.
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I could stick at 60% stocks.
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

That’s why I want to hold 10% gold. It’s a hedge against the decline of the dollar. One last question then from me in dealing with the gold allocation. And this is fully speculation on my part which really is all gold prices are but.... What happens if gold prices decline rapidly in let's say two y...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

That’s why I want to hold 10% gold. It’s a hedge against the decline of the dollar.
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

Well I’m 29. I was 100% stocks 140k VTSAX and 2k in my 401k (100% stocks) I sold off 60k I plan to put 15k into gold and put 45k into ally bank high yield savings of 1.1%. Technically that will put me at roughly 57% stocks, 32% high yield savings, 11% gold. I wanted to hold alittle gold in my portf...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I see the dollar on the decline due to all the money printing and QE. Gold holds its value and protects against currency devaluations. I felt safer holding a small portion in Gold.
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

Well I’m 29. I was 100% stocks 140k VTSAX and 2k in my 401k (100% stocks) I sold off 60k I plan to put 15k into gold and put 45k into ally bank high yield savings of 1.1%. Technically that will put me at roughly 57% stocks, 32% high yield savings, 11% gold. I wanted to hold alittle gold in my portf...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

Did you not have an emergency fund? Do you have an IRA? I can understand not feeling safe being 100% in equities but feel you pulled back to fast. Unless you had no emergency fund? If that's the case then is that cash in the HYSA now your emergency fund and how long would that last if you lost your...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I just couldn’t justify 100% stocks anymore. 50% VTSAX, 40% ally bank savings at 1.1%, 10% gold. I just see this market as very overvalued. And just couldn’t stomach the downside risk which outweighed the possible short term gains. You clearly shouldn’t have been 100% stocks in the first place; a w...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jul 07, 2020 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

Well I’m 29. I was 100% stocks 140k VTSAX and 2k in my 401k (100% stocks) I sold off 60k I plan to put 15k into gold and put 45k into ally bank high yield savings of 1.1%. Technically that will put me at roughly 57% stocks, 32% high yield savings, 11% gold. I wanted to hold alittle gold in my portfo...
by rockthisworld
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I just couldn’t justify 100% stocks anymore. 50% VTSAX, 40% ally bank savings at 1.1%, 10% gold. I just see this market as very overvalued. And just couldn’t stomach the downside risk which outweighed the possible short term gains.
by rockthisworld
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Re: Changed AA

I think I could only stomach 60% at the most I was sticking with 100% since 2017 till now but it was alittle tough this year and I’d rather long term stick to an AA I feel comfortable to stomach.
by rockthisworld
Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changed AA
Replies: 52
Views: 2527

Changed AA

I just sold shares of VTSAX today. I’m taking 40% and putting in an ally bank high interest savings account of 1.1%. I’m going to be buying 10% gold through one gold. And then keep 50% VTSAX. I’m still betting long term that stocks will go up over time. It just got to a level where I didn’t feel lik...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4427

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

My only advice to the OP is that I understand it may be a rough next decade but if you are holding that for 40 years and looking for 2% real then just keep buying VTSAX and if there is a dip buy more.
by rockthisworld
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4427

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

Right now I’m 100% VTSAX which I love but I have been listening to people saying low bond yields, the dollar is heading for a decline and a mother of all bubbles will burst in us equities. Although I plan on 1.5% real. I’m just afraid that putting all my eggs in that basket could result in Japan’s ...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4427

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

Right now I’m 100% VTSAX which I love but I have been listening to people saying low bond yields, the dollar is heading for a decline and a mother of all bubbles will burst in us equities. Although I plan on 2% real. I’m just afraid that putting all my eggs in that basket could result in Japan’s -1....
by rockthisworld
Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High inflation and real stock market return
Replies: 18
Views: 1937

Re: High inflation and real stock market return

Look at the 70s and all going on to see why we had a slight negative real return. Yes inflation was a problem. But world events, bad policy, and currency devaluations didn’t help either. Imagine living in a world where we are just covering inflation. It could be a world issue but US future growth is...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank savings interest rate dropping from 1.25% to 1.10%
Replies: 81
Views: 9032

Re: Ally Bank savings interest rate dropping from 1.25% to 1.10%

How does one take some risk off the table and try to keep up with inflation on the fixed income side and look for growth and to beat inflation with stocks. Especially given these volatile times especially if it means not pulling out of the market and readjusting to take some risk off seeing we are v...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank savings interest rate dropping from 1.25% to 1.10%
Replies: 81
Views: 9032

Re: Ally Bank savings interest rate dropping from 1.25% to 1.10%

It’s sad to see hard working Americans can’t even keep up with inflation by saving their money. If target inflation is 2% then if only it was possible to get the target savings interest rate to be between 1.5-2%. Then CDs could make (2-2.5%) bonds make (3-4%) stocks 4-8?. It would take a lot of anxi...
by rockthisworld
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy vs Markets
Replies: 25
Views: 1463

Economy vs Markets

How long can this disconnect go on for? Rising debt past 26 trillion, half of small businesses won’t come back at least half of the jobs lost won’t come back. Fed balance sheet at new highs and rates are on hold til 2022 the fed believes we can’t normalize rates. A lot of pressure on the dollar. Fix...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11986

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

[quote=Newtothis92 post_id=5312979 time=<a href="tel:1592138971">1592138971</a> user_id=161363] [quote=AerialWombat post_id=5311531 time=<a href="tel:1592063179">1592063179</a> user_id=135143] [quote=abuss368 post_id=5310456 time=<a href="tel:1592001190">1592001190</a>...
by rockthisworld
Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be
Replies: 28
Views: 1936

Re: Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be

According to Shiller's site, CAPE is currently at 28.52. 1/CAPE then suggests that forward 10 year real returns will be 3.5%. A completely different indicator of future returns, which has had far greater explanatory power than 1/CAPE, is the average investor allocation to equities. This metric impl...
by rockthisworld
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be
Replies: 28
Views: 1936

Given High Valuations What Should Reasonable Return Be

SP 500 has a cape ratio of almost 30. The highest was 45 in late 1999. The forward returns from Dec 99 to Dec 09 was nominal -.73% and real returns were -3.17%. And if we add another ten years to Dec 2019 (at the height of the market) we saw real return of 3.84%. So what do you all believe would hap...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11986

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

So why doesn’t Vanguard increase the international stock allocation in the life strategy and target funds to 50% US and 50% International since it will outperform? Because they don’t put their money where there mouth is. I use Vanguard and love them and they have great low cost and quality customer...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I almost sold at the bottom.
Replies: 13
Views: 1945

Re: I almost sold at the bottom.

Right now I’m 100% VTSAX and just going to hold that and hope that the odds are in my favor that it will provide a baseline decent return over the long haul. It is scary because I personally saw my net worth drop to under 100k and I panicked but by continuing to add what I can and a few more $$$ thr...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11986

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

I mean if US is contracting GDP and so are the rest of the world I don’t think they would necessarily outperform US especially because this is a global pandemic driven recession.
by rockthisworld
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11986

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

It really is strange that they would generate a forecast in late March and then wait 2+ months before publishing the article. By my math, with S&P500 ~2600 in late March and now at 3000, their real US equity forecast drops from 5% real down to 3.5% real. Pretty big difference. 3.5% real would b...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11986

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

I’m predicting 4.5-5% nominal and an average inflation of 3.5% over the next 40 years (so I used the average inflation instead of today’s standard 2%. Then again who ever knows. Market could go down 50%, 70%. Or be up by that amount. I just know things are overvalued given the fundamentals. And I ju...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offshore CD at higher rates?
Replies: 8
Views: 717

Re: Offshore CD at higher rates?

Yeah I see why I shouldn’t risk that now lol.
by rockthisworld
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offshore CD at higher rates?
Replies: 8
Views: 717

Offshore CD at higher rates?

https://www.panama-offshore-services.com/investments_offshore_bank_deposits.htm Hello bogleheads, is this a real way to shelter savings because the cd rates are higher? Or is there a catch? I’m trying to look for ways to beef up my savings and put it into a 12 month cd. If I look at Ally Bank they a...
by rockthisworld
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Economy and The Markets

I just feel like the mother of all debt bubbles are beginning to burst and partially due to covid however it was only a matter of time for a catalyst to set things in motion. That’s why I think it’s still tough to imagine getting normal real returns at this point.
by rockthisworld
Sun May 31, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Diversification Portfolio For Different Asset Allocations
Replies: 11
Views: 912

Re: Best Diversification Portfolio For Different Asset Allocations

There is no consensus. See the wiki https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios for some potential ideas. For a quick look at the variability of historical returns see the Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns at: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Classic-Periodic-Table.pd...
by rockthisworld
Sun May 31, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Diversification Portfolio For Different Asset Allocations
Replies: 11
Views: 912

Best Diversification Portfolio For Different Asset Allocations

I have a question for the Bogleheads? If people want diversification and a balanced portfolio would 50/50 stocks and bonds not offer enough diversification if one believes there is no yield for bonds where does one go for true diversification or to maintain a balanced portfolio and hopefully still s...
by rockthisworld
Sun May 31, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Economy and The Markets

I guess as long as it doesn’t drop 90% since it’s highs and took 90 years to recover lol than I should be able to adjust or at least DCA over the years and the little bit I throw in there will eventually see some gains even after 40 years