Search found 99 matches

by rockthisworld
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Fund Diverse Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 249

Re: Single Fund Diverse Portfolio

What would be the 40 year return on a 100% international stock? Because I can’t find data going further back than 2004 for vanguard. Real return?
by rockthisworld
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Fund Diverse Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 249

Single Fund Diverse Portfolio

Technically would 100% Total World Stock Index Fund have enough diversity to buy and hold for long term (10-50 years)?
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What has international stocks returned since 2000?
Replies: 3
Views: 576

What has international stocks returned since 2000?

If someone was 100% stocks internationally or also someone with a 50/50 stock bond international portfolio? Do you see international stocks will continue at the same rate?
by rockthisworld
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diverse Retiree Portfolio
Replies: 0
Views: 261

Diverse Retiree Portfolio

Would a save spend down strategy for a retirees financial assets?? Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ( even if it only kept up with inflation during the time period invested it would guarantee to have 7.5 years 50 CD (One Year @2%) or TIPS (roughly 7.75 years expenses) 40 Cash 2.25 years expenses Ro...
by rockthisworld
Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Projected Future WR
Replies: 7
Views: 489

Projected Future WR

If one chooses to maximize social security in the future and delay retirement until 70 if someone has a 4.5% withdrawal rate with let’s say a starting balance of 280k. Would that withdrawal rate work for 20 years with an annual inflation raise of 3% during the positive years and maybe only 1.5% rais...
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11094

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Would the dividend yield be a good indicator of minimal real returns if I was to project a slow growth scenario for stocks?
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11094

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Would a sustainable GDP growth rate also be the sustainable stock real return rate?
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

Honestly I’d rather plan on worst case and if I have more I can give back more then. Plus I’d rather not grind and work OT anymore and want to start a family very soon. Technically speaking I’m at 160k and if I can truly achieve 1.5% real then I don’t need to save anymore for retirement.
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11094

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Is inflation already factored into the dividend yield?
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11094

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

Real CAGR is 2.64% from 2000-2018 for sp500. In that time period we had 2 bear market drops and a good bull run.
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11094

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

I would also love to see a sustainable growth rate of 3% real. I’m just using 1.5% real in my calculator and then I can feel okay if it actually returns 2-3% real. I always plan for logical worst case scenario.
by rockthisworld
Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

I used a CAGR calc and the sp500 had a real cagr of 2.64% from 2000 to 2018. Knowing from today’s cape ratio of 31.2 and that market valuations are high (similar to 2000) is it safe to use 2% real over the next 20, 30, 40 years? Would using 2% real be a safe number for a worst case scenario? Or sho...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

Stef wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:17 am
2.5-3% real over 30+ years? Couldn't get more pessimistic.
I mean if that’s true and it couldn’t get more pessimistic then that is even better news for those who invest right?
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

[quote=rockthisworld post_id=4933187 time=<a href="tel:1578205437">1578205437</a> user_id=140748]Or should it be even lower than 2% real seeing lower projected returns from vanguard (4% stocks, 2.5% bonds, 2% projected inflation). Vanguards 10 year forecast. By “stocks” do you really mean “US stock...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

I’m also using this period as a means to project future returns that I can use for my portfolio. I know past results don’t dictate future returns but until the future happens it’s all projections. That’s why I went from high valuations and ended after a 19% correction at the end of 2018. I feel like...
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

You have to insert the dates from 2000 to 2018 then check off reinvest dividends and adjust for inflation.
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

Re: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

I adjusted for inflation and included dividends. I only look at Compound Annual Growth Rate which showed a real return of 2.64% which is why I use 2% real.
by rockthisworld
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 1418

High Valuations CAPE Ratio and Retirement Planning

I used a CAGR calc and the sp500 had a real cagr of 2.64% from 2000 to 2018. Knowing from today’s cape ratio of 31.2 and that market valuations are high (similar to 2000) is it safe to use 2% real over the next 20, 30, 40 years? Would using 2% real be a safe number for a worst case scenario? Or shou...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average Return vs CAGR
Replies: 7
Views: 529

Re: Average Return vs CAGR

Fairly certain that funds/brokers are legally obligated to report compound annualized returns when reporting average returns, for example the 1/3/5/10/20 year returns. I don't have any qualms with these being nominal though. Inflation is subjective and easy enough for you to add on after the fact. ...
by rockthisworld
Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average Return vs CAGR
Replies: 7
Views: 529

Average Return vs CAGR

Hey everyone. Why do people care what the average or what the real return on your investment is? When in true real return is calculated from CAGR minus inflation. Since CAGR is usually less than the average shouldn’t we be using a lower return on retirement projection due to sequence of return risk?
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 1407

Re: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?

Thank you everyone for the response. And yes I agree. But you can’t go with the average return of 10% or at least I wouldn’t from today’s valuations and lower projected growth. But also have to go off of the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) because of sequence of return risk. What do others think?
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 1407

Re: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?

My income is between 20-25k a year I don’t have a lot to save. Anything extra I want to use to try to stash away for a house or future family. I want that 160k to work hard enough over the next 42 years or so to cover me for retirement. I’m okay with living frugally and give back as much as possible...
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 1407

Re: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?

I could stay 100% in VTSAX it’s tax efficient, low cost index fund. So my portfolio is at 160k currently and I’m only going to add $300 a year (which equates to $25 a month and hope to buy when I see a 5-10% pullback in the market from time to time. Is this going to be good enough to reach my goal? ...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 1407

VTSAX and TIPS For a Lazy Portfolio?

Hey guys. I finally thought of a portfolio that may ease my worries. If I had 50/50 asset allocation with 50% in Total Stock Market Index and 50% in TIPS. All of these are through vanguard so my portfolio would look like this Age: 28 State: mass 5.1% AA: 50/50 12% tax bracket Single 50% VTSAX $80k ....
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966 to 2009
Replies: 18
Views: 1924

Re: 1966 to 2009

Thank you!
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966 to 2009
Replies: 18
Views: 1924

Re: 1966 to 2009

I appreciate it. I think I can’t do it from my phone I will have to try a laptop lol. I was more curious about a 50/50 portfolio from 1966 to 2009 in terms of market gains during a long period of time where we saw modest real gains. I know currently I may be better off saving cash then invest when I...
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966 to 2009
Replies: 18
Views: 1924

Re: 1966 to 2009

This covers two bear markets over the span of a 40 year period or so where you invest at the high and sell at the bottom. Probably shows that maybe in the worst case scenario an investor will still have growth due to the reinvestment of dividends even when the market moves sideways.
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966 to 2009
Replies: 18
Views: 1924

Re: 1966 to 2009

It simulates the hypothetical worst case scenario for an investor with a 40+ year investment like in my case.
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966 to 2009
Replies: 18
Views: 1924

1966 to 2009

If I invested in a 50/50 stock bond portfolio at the absolute market high in 1966 and sold the shares at the low in March 2009 what would that portfolio return over the 43 years. Just trying to test if someone where to invest at the worst time and hypothetically sold shares at the worst time.
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX

How would that minimize my tax hit? I am in the 12% tax bracket.
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX

So what would you estimate being on the conservative side of long term returns at 50/50 portfolio?
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Sell part of VTSAX to buy some VTMFX

I have about 18,500 in capital gains (going to be LTCG in 2 months). Question is having 100% in VTSAX is it worth realizing the 18,500 and putting that into Vanguard Tax Managed Balanced Fund. This will allow me to have some bonds in my portfolio anticipating to return to 100% VTSAX after the next b...
by rockthisworld
Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2020’s Real Returns
Replies: 2
Views: 722

2020’s Real Returns

2020s will in your prediction in the boglehead crystal ball see a real return (nominal return-inflation) of________. (For a balanced portfolio 50/50)

Let’s make this fun

• What is your reasoning?

• Perfect portfolio for best predicted results?
by rockthisworld
Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In or Near Retirement with Only Six Figures?
Replies: 126
Views: 15103

Re: In or Near Retirement with Only Six Figures?

Going into retirement with six figures is reality for a lot of us in today’s dollars. We just have to balance our lives according to what we have. It depends on savings rate and income. If you were to say in 100% confidence that you will make a real return of for example I use between 1%-1.5% real r...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In or Near Retirement with Only Six Figures?
Replies: 126
Views: 15103

Re: In or Near Retirement with Only Six Figures?

I think for me it depends on the status of social security in terms of having a low to mid six figure retirement in today’s dollars. My retirement projection is that for my full retirement age will be probably around 70. Plug in numbers then revisit every year to see where you are on that path.
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please
Replies: 11
Views: 1460

Re: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please

Is 5% nominal achieveable in today’s environment and low projected 10 year returns?
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please
Replies: 11
Views: 1460

Re: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please

Am I correct in telling him to expect his nest egg to grow at about 1.2% real over his 40 years?
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please
Replies: 11
Views: 1460

Re: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please

He’s pretty determined to just lump sum at vanguard so that’s why he just wants to set it and literally forget it until he is 70.
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please
Replies: 11
Views: 1460

Re: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please

I told him to account inflation which has been historically 3.3% rounded up. Using cape the real return if fed inflation goal is 2% would be a real return of 1.2%. So 100k invested for 40 years with a 1.2% real return equates to about 160k in today’s dollars which is why I tried to tell him that eve...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 21, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please
Replies: 11
Views: 1460

Help My Cousins Financial Situation Please

My cousin told me he has 100k to invest and wants to be at 100% stocks. He is 30 years old. He wanted to know if he invests in a lump sum of 100k into either sp500 index or vtsax index what would he have after 40 years? I told him that it’s best to just get in the market and not to time it. Or if he...
by rockthisworld
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You’re never going to make enough money if you have 40% of your money in bonds
Replies: 186
Views: 16587

Re: You’re never going to make enough money if you have 40% of your money in bonds

VTSAX 100% invested in America. Not a perfect portfolio by any means and maybe I should have international stocks. But I will bank on the fact that 100% stocks will earn more over a 30-40 year period before I transition to a more balanced portfolio for retirement.
by rockthisworld
Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains When Realized
Replies: 9
Views: 975

Re: Capital Gains When Realized

Thank you all! I was confused between the actual income of 12,000 and the actual capital gains portion of the shares. That makes sense because to have to pay taxes on the after tax money that is being used to buy shares didn’t make sense to me anyways.
by rockthisworld
Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review: Thank You
Replies: 21
Views: 2802

Re: Portfolio Review: Thank You

It depends on where you are in Massachusetts. But it is cheaper than California. And that’s awesome buying your parents older car is definitely a good thing to keep expenses low to maximize savings. I wish you the best with your job hunt!
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains When Realized
Replies: 9
Views: 975

Re: Capital Gains When Realized

I have average cost. And thank you. I’m just trying to estimate the cost for future projections. However it’s good to know that the 1099 will include the capital gain that is subject to tax. Thank you for your help.
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains When Realized
Replies: 9
Views: 975

Re: Capital Gains When Realized

What if I take $12k a year annually? How does that affect my capital gain taxes from year to year? Since I’m not withdrawing one big lump sum.
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gains When Realized
Replies: 9
Views: 975

Capital Gains When Realized

Hypothetically speaking if I had a nest egg off let’s use 200k. If I invested $50k with after tax dollars and the market gain was 150k if I were to withdraw let’s say 12000 a year how much of it is even taxable? Is all $12000 subject to the capital gain tax or would only 75% of it be subject to tax ...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Psychologically Prepare for the Bear
Replies: 64
Views: 5891

Re: Psychologically Prepare for the Bear

People do very well preparing for the PREVIOUS bear. Not so good with the next one, which is always different. And there is a huge difference between imagining your assets dropping 50% and actually having only half of the money you used to have in your brokerage account. The 2008 crash taught peopl...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review: Thank You
Replies: 21
Views: 2802

Re: Portfolio Review: Thank You

I live in Massachusetts and can bike commute for most of the year if I tough it out. Great exercise, great for the environment, save alittle money too. I have been investing since 2016 so I never try to comment much because I haven’t faced a bear market yet. But I decided to comment because what I c...
by rockthisworld
Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Psychologically Prepare for the Bear
Replies: 64
Views: 5891

Re: Psychologically Prepare for the Bear

OP - What you are doing makes sense. Staring at a dollar value assuming a certain % haircut in the stock market is a great way to psychologically prepare. I do that too. All the best. This is what I do. I factor in a 30% haircut in my portfolio then continue with a long term nominal return of 4.5% ...
by rockthisworld
Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vs VVIAX
Replies: 6
Views: 847

VTSAX vs VVIAX

What do you guys think about the Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares? Is it better for the long term investor better than Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral? I don’t know if the word “value” makes it a better deal? The value fund has a slightly higher expense ratio too.