Search found 218 matches

by KJVanguard
Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment
Replies: 148
Views: 16736

Re: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment

If the Market goes down 30% in five weeks do you invest? Maybe you would. However, if anybody says the market has more downside, the money won’t get invested. And that is why so many of the responses say you can’t time the market. Not Everybody can go from 100% cash to fully invested when the marke...
by KJVanguard
Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment
Replies: 148
Views: 16736

Re: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment

Invest it all in at once. Invest it all at once and pray that you didn't jump all in as of September 1929 or December 1972 or March 2000 or various other bad times to invest. Or hope you are not a Japanese investor who bet it all at the peak in December 1989, a very depressed investor who is still ...
by KJVanguard
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1651930

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Taylor, just wondering why the SP500 performance is very close to the total stock market,does it mean that over time, performance of small caps in the TSM is more volatile, and so TSM performance ends up being about the same as SP500? The 500 stocks of the S&P 500 make up the vast bulk of TSM so bo...
by KJVanguard
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1651930

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

In a few Jack Bogle interviews that I heard from 2018, he said that he had a problem with the Total Bond Index fund because its treasury allocation was too high. He said the he prefers (and uses) the slightly riskier and higher yielding Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund because it holds mo...
by KJVanguard
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 106
Views: 6371

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

Stocks should be priced to beat bonds as stocks have more risk. Any rational investor would demand a higher return to compensate then for taking this greater risk. How do stocks have greater risk: consider that when the bleep hits the fan bond holders must be paid back what is owned to then and then...
by KJVanguard
Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend paying Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 2062

Re: Dividend paying Portfolio

livesoft wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:18 am
A 3-fund portfolio pays lots of dividends, so what's the issue?
About 2% on TSM, 3% on Total International, 3.5% on Total Bond. Still not up to the 4% withdrawal rate that many retirees seem to pick, so shares would still need to be sold.
by KJVanguard
Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't good ideas beat the market?
Replies: 33
Views: 2828

Re: Why don't good ideas beat the market?

greg24 wrote:
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:13 pm
Costs matter.
You are sounding like John Bogle, and I agree fully.
by KJVanguard
Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard stole $0.01?
Replies: 80
Views: 5922

Re: Vanguard stole $0.01?

Pennies are so utterly worthless that you could pour them on the ground and nobody would bother to pick it up. It might be considered littering.
by KJVanguard
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-cap tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 2133

Re: Small-cap tilt

My largest US equity holding is TSM, but my 2nd largest is Small Cap Value. I would likely tilt more to SV, but I must keep TSM due to unrealized capital gains. Even if taxes were not an issue, I probably would still be too afraid to put everything in SV. Vanguard's Portfolio Watch scolds me with a ...
by KJVanguard
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 158
Views: 16845

Re: Who Will Speak for US?

Who will speak for us now that John Bogle is dead? Is there anyone else in the financial services industry advocating for the individual investor? Vanguard would appear to be advocating for the individual investor, though Jack was the ultimate spokesman for "costs matter." Vanguard still carries on...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 18
Views: 2611

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

I still think there was a bull market in bonds and anybody who bought 30-year Treasuries in 1981 made out like a bandit, far better than they could ever have reasonably expected to due to vastly lower than expected inflation. 1981 sure looks to have been a better time to buy bonds than today unless ...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS
Replies: 15
Views: 3294

Re: REITS

I'm rather fond of Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate. Look at those valuations! Single digit P/E and selling below book value. Appears much more attractive than their (US) REIT Index. US REITs strike me as overvalued. Yes, I know terms like "over-valued" mean I am making a bet, but I'm willing to be...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?
Replies: 7
Views: 1588

VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?

P/E = 8.2x P/B = 0.9x Selling with a single-digit P/E and for less than book, the valuations certainly appear compelling. Is there something that I'm missing, or is this fund the cheapest thing you can possibly buy from Vanguard? Certainly makes their (US) Reit Index look obscenely expensive by comp...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 21908

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

I wonder if Taylor is going to change to advocating the 2-fund portfolio now that the entire world can be had for a most minimal price? :D 33% less funds! Taylor, of course, will speak for himself, but I suspect his answer will be 'no'. I suspect the same. Everyone who drinks the Vanguard Kool Aid ...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 16675

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

History has 30 year periods when bonds beat stocks yet I don't know anybody who has a 100% bond portfolio on that basis. The long-run is exceptionally long in human terms where one is to be considered lucky if they live three 30-year periods. My late brother only lived 1.5 "long-term" periods. If on...
by KJVanguard
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2595
Views: 1651930

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Now that Total World will soon have Admiral Shares, is anybody willing to step forward and advocate a two-fund portfolio? 33% less funds, for even greater simplicity! :D Yes, I know the idea would kill John Bogle if St. Jack hadn't already passed, but the lower valuations of international stocks are...
by KJVanguard
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRS Form 8606
Replies: 14
Views: 1545

Re: IRS Form 8606

I have to fill out the form every year because I have an inherited IRA that my late father unintentionally made non-deductible contributions to. I have filled out so many of these forms and I can finally stop when I'm 83 and the IRA is fully emptied. So only half a century of paperwork.
by KJVanguard
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable information in order to invest in physical gold
Replies: 25
Views: 1441

Re: Actionable information in order to invest in physical gold

I own a little bit of gold too. Though I also own a little bit of platinum & silver too. Those of us without functional crystal balls may wish to own all three metals.
by KJVanguard
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 21908

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares should launch February 5

I wonder if Taylor is going to change to advocating the 2-fund portfolio now that the entire world can be had for a most minimal price? :D 33% less funds!

I do appreciate that International Small Caps will be cheaper as I own both the mutual fund & ETF versions of it. I always enjoy saving money.
by KJVanguard
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family
Replies: 48
Views: 16159

Re: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family

He was born one day before my late mother who passed in 2015. It's sad to see him go. I can't think of anybody else who did nearly so much good for the individual investor. He took the simple idea (which seemed wild at the time) that costs matter and that indexing is a winning strategy and brought i...
by KJVanguard
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?
Replies: 30
Views: 1748

Re: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?

I've been a Flagship client for about 20 years and I rarely ever talk or email any Flagship rep. I suspect by the time you reach Flagship status you have dealt with Vanguard so much that you probably know more about Vanguard than does the typical Flagship rep, or at least that's how I feel after 24 ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 68
Views: 4971

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

My observation having owned REITs since 2000 is that they benefit when rates are falling and struggle when rates are rising. The “yield” paid out as distributions competes to some degree with other investments. As rates fall, that yield becomes more attractive, driving REIT prices up. This is my ex...
by KJVanguard
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USPS price increase on 1/27/19
Replies: 74
Views: 6957

Re: USPS price increase on 1/27/19

I mailed my property tax check. Almost the only thing I mail each year.
by KJVanguard
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for a 9mm handgun
Replies: 171
Views: 13735

Re: Recommendations for a 9mm handgun

Glock 19. As reliable as they get. Easy to maintain. Easy to shoot. Not expensive. It's the Corolla of pistols. Yeah, it's a reasonable choice if you want something small enough to conceal. If you are looking for home defense, well, then handgun size doesn't really matter, so you don't need a compa...
by KJVanguard
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 241
Views: 21690

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Are there Bogleheads who allocate 50% to U.S. and 50% to International? This could include both domestic and international stocks and also domestic and international bonds. I would except that this allocation has to be the easiest to maintainz. There is at least one who has 55% of equity in interna...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next 20 years for stocks should be a lot better..
Replies: 10
Views: 2705

Re: The next 20 years for stocks should be a lot better..

How fitting they show a lady looking at a crystal ball. If you don't have a working crystal ball (does Amazon carry them?) then you don't know what the future will bring, but every legitimate expert is only expecting modest returns. Best bet on modest returns such that you don't get caught running o...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Statements - Print or Electronic
Replies: 47
Views: 2986

Re: Vanguard Statements - Print or Electronic

I'm an old fart (at 45) and I want paper statements mailed to me. Yes, I know this kills trees, but I make up for this by having tons of trees on my property. When I am dead it can all be recycled. Yes, I know there is a cost to this as well, though I'm still cheap for Vanguard to keep with a $2.5M ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 121
Views: 25029

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:30 pm
...I've never held Emerging Markets (they would never pass the sleep well at night test for me).
I think we have just identified a new sleep disorder. :D

I'd say get a sleeping pill and invest in the entire world.
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling
Replies: 17
Views: 2169

Re: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling

Dottie57 wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:22 pm
The sky definitely isn’t falling if young and accumulating. If in retirement or nearly there it is harder to stomach.

The big daily swings bug me.
Agree! Though I have never done any panic selling and I never intend to. I have been though bear markets before.
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2319

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

There are institutional investors, such as the frequently-cited insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds, which have fairly good ideas about how much money they will need and when. They're prime candidates to buy longer-term investment-grade bonds. PJW That would be my answer as well for ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 6701

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

I'm 60% international. My goal is not to better the US markets, but to decrease the odds of asymmetrical risk, ie, a single country black swan event. So you don't want to be the Japanese investor who put all his money into Japan in December 1989. Everyone else now is looking at history (last 49 yea...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 6701

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

And I don't hold a separate emerging small-cap fund at all; the ETFs are very expensive and have been tax-inefficient. I hold DGS in various inherited IRAs, so I don't have to care about tax efficiency. That would be Wisdom Tree EM Small Cap Dividend. At 63 basis points it is indeed expensive compa...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund significantly overweights international stocks
Replies: 13
Views: 1393

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund significantly overweights international stocks

Higher dividend yield? Foreign stocks do have higher dividend yields. When I calculated yields a couple months ago based upon actual payouts, international funds were around 3% compared to 2% yield for US stocks funds. I still am amazed that they are that heavy on international. And I thought I was...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 16552

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Have you seen a response in this thread, which convinces you that investing in a lower return (since 1970) and higher risk asset class should be of interest to you? Apparently Vanguard's board of directors has failed to look at the last 49 years of international performance, since they make interna...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 121
Views: 25029

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Portfolio Watch tells me that I am 55% international (of my equity holdings). And a lot of my international is small cap, EM, and EM small cap dividend (DGS). Also own an International Real Estate Index. So I seem to have a few more funds and lots of that nasty foreign stuff that Bogle tells me I sh...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 16552

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

My thinking is that doing business in riskier markets does provide excess return for excess risk, but the benefits are not enjoyed by individual shareholders; rather, they are siphoned off by the controlling owners, management, government officials, etc. Of course, this happens to US business as we...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 226
Views: 17572

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

KJS Asset Management

Long: Sturm, Ruger, & Co.

Short: Tesla
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 71
Views: 6557

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

The "top stocks" underperformed. I'm fond of tracking the three stocks named by the authors of Dow 36,000 in 1999. I vividly recall that silly book from 20 years ago. Evidently the Dow has never read it as we still haven't seen it hit 36,000. From the same era was "Stocks for the Long Run" which to...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tbills for the tbill challenged
Replies: 13
Views: 1469

Re: Tbills for the tbill challenged

I really don't see a point to owning T-bills when you can get virtually the same thing with a MM. Lower cost. State tax exempt. Actually safe instead of probably safe. No gates. Scalable. Can be owned by any kind of person or organization. No residency, citizenship, or "natural persons" requirement...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VG advises 15% International Bonds (VTABX)... Why?
Replies: 48
Views: 4640

Re: VG advises 15% International Bonds (VTIAX)... Why?

International bonds add more complexity and add slightly higher cost to a fixed income portfolio. IMO, they are not necessary and I do not recommend them. That being said, if someone believes the international bond story and wants them, I would not argue with them. Rick Ferri Well, now, that makes ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 53
Views: 19495

Re: Target Date Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio

I am one of those who went for "other." I have never owned at Target Date fund and never would. I have recommended these simple all-in-one lifetime solutions to others though. While the 3 Fund portfolio isn't bad, I still prefer more funds for myself. I want International Small-Cap, US Small Value, ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1052
Views: 287554

Re: Share your story of how you got wealthy

Would never claim I was wealthy but I suggest 1) marry the right partner 2) Live in the same house for 34 years 3) work very hard at your profession 4) live below your means and save prodigiously 5) never listen to or pay a dime to a broker or other thief Sounds like good advice to me. The guy I bo...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Policy: Right amount for $7 mil net worth?
Replies: 113
Views: 19187

Re: Umbrella Policy: Right amount for $7 mil net worth?

For a long time I had a $2M umbrella policy. After a crash last summer where I was at fault I got to thinking that I should raise it to $3M to fully cover my net worth. I sleep better knowing that AllState is on the hook for up to $3M and thus has major incentive to provide me with the best lawyers ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Question
Replies: 26
Views: 1760

Re: TIPS Question

A TIPS fund is enough protection for my needs. I used to own that fund back long ago when yields were higher, eventually selling when real yields went negative. I have owned 10-year TIPSs bought at auction from Vanguard's bond desk in 2000 & 2002. Held them to maturity. They were a good investment.
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax efficiency question bonds in taxable
Replies: 7
Views: 516

Re: Tax efficiency question bonds in taxable

Doesn’t this go totally against the bogelhead mantra of tax exempt bonds for highest tax brackets...thus why I am so confused. Anyone have thoughts on this? What's the average quality of the two funds in question -- the muni fund I bet owns higher quality bonds than the corporate fund. Quality coul...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Question
Replies: 26
Views: 1760

Re: TIPS Question

Could just make life as easy as possible by buying Vanguard's TIPS fund.
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tbills for the tbill challenged
Replies: 13
Views: 1469

Re: Tbills for the tbill challenged

I really don't see a point to owning T-bills when you can get virtually the same thing with a MM.
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 484
Views: 54165

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

I have no career since I am disabled by social phobia (and depression, OCD, and generalized anxiety). If I ever had a career I imagine it would have been as a financial advisor as that's my educational background (finance degree) and it's what I truly love. I have acted as a financial advisor for ev...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?
Replies: 20
Views: 2380

Re: Index Funds - 'Herding' Behavior?

When there is short-term money to be made (and lost) in the stock market, someone will always be stepping in and doing so. And that’s fine. It just isn’t the way to ensure the average investor’s long-term financial security. Greed will always keep active investors in the market. I don't see active ...
by KJVanguard
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Money Market account now that interest rates have gone up?
Replies: 57
Views: 8721

Re: Which Money Market account now that interest rates have gone up?

I just use Federal MM since that's what Vanguard offers as their settlement account. I don't have enough assets in a MM to chase after a few basis points more at another fund. If I had that much extra, instead of chasing after a few more basis points, I would invest it in Short-Term Investment Grade...