Bogleheads.org

Nicolas Perrault

invest2bfree wrote: ↑Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:04 pm Lot of people are currently saying we are in a bubble.

My point is 20 year return of 6.45% is not a bubble but below the long terms average of 9%.

P/E =25 could be because E is artificially low because of Covid.

Well 20 years ago (or so) was in a bubble, so it’s not a real good starting point.

Nicolas Perrault

High returns with low risk is a reliable indicator of fraud —William Bernstein

Nicolas Perrault

Has anyone figured out what BND is really yielding? Google says 2.5%, Vanguard's "sec yield" gives 1.1%, and my own rough calculation given the latest dividend is 1.7% :? The yield that really matters is the YIELD-TO-MATURITY , which is of 1.1% as of today. On Vanguard's site, the "S...

Nicolas Perrault

Every time Taylor says we’re gamblers and Total Market funds are better, I buy one share of VBR (Vanguard Small Cap Value). :mrgreen: Steve: I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Mr. Bogle began telling Bogleheads about the danger of style/factor investing many years ago. Fortunately, I listened. T...

Nicolas Perrault

Do shareholders own company's assets? Or, do they only own them in the event of bankruptcy? Assets are resources that a company controls. Shareholders have a residual ownership in these assets once liabilities (e.g. its debt) have been paid off. If a firm has no debt, then the shareholders own all ...

Nicolas Perrault

As a follow on question, part of me is tempted to use a 1-fund portfolio of the QQQ. Here is why (last 10 years): - the CAGR was 20.20% compared to 10.90% for the 3-fund portfolio - Worst year was -0.12% compared to -5.07% for the 3-fund portfolio - Maximum drawdown was 16.96% compared to 16.42% - ...

Nicolas Perrault

I wonder if the Vanguard Tax-Managed Small Cap Fund still holds the 519,000 shares it owned in September of 2020? It tracks S&P 600 Small Cap index fund, so I'm sure it does hold it in the appropriate weight. it fell only 0.18% yesterday. At least SLYV has maintained its weighting. As of yester...

Nicolas Perrault

TMF 15% down in 7 days. How is everyone doing? Frustrating to be more than 5% down when the market went 2% up. 15% in 7 days is nothing . UPRO lost 77% between 2/19/20 and 3/23/20. A bigger concern isn't 15% vs 77% but that SPX down -0.15% and TMF going -2%. Not working as a hedge right now. If you...

Nicolas Perrault

Its been very UGLY and once I recoup my losses on TMF, I think I will do 20 TMF and 25 cash. Let me get this right. You’re going to hold both UPRO and cash simultaneously? TQQQ(~55),TMF(~20), and cash(~25). Not a quantitive but qualitative reason. Ofcourse once my TMF position recovers. Can you exp...

Nicolas Perrault

In 1914 my great-grandpa gave $50,000 to the Canadian government to fight the Germans: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mignault-Borden_22e_Regiment_Letter.png#mw-jump-to-license That’s about 1 million in 2021 dollars. Would be worth more than 1 billion today if instead he had invested in the U...

Nicolas Perrault

In 1914 my great-grandpa gave $50,000 to the Canadian government to fight the Germans: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mignault-Borden_22e_Regiment_Letter.png#mw-jump-to-license That’s about 1 million in 2021 dollars. Would be worth more than 1 billion today if instead he had invested in the US...

Nicolas Perrault

Mid-2014 MBP 13” here, working well. Let me ask you, is the marginal benefit of upgrading now worth hundreds of dollars to you? My MBP did what it was supposed to do when I got it years ago and still does that job fine today. I will keep it until it fails, becomes hopelessly obsolete, or when it bec...

Nicolas Perrault

Biggest risk is losing or spilling coffee on them. If you are looking for guaranteed inflation adjusted return, stick with I Bonds and TIPS. You've got to hold the TIPS to maturity to get the guaranteed inflation adjusted return, or else you're the slave of interest rates (a spike in rates means it...

Nicolas Perrault

Started the adventure this year in a very small play-money Roth IRA and made a few changes along the way... - Started in mid-April 2020 with 55/45 UPRO/TMF - Switched in mid-May to 27.5/27.5/45 UPRO/TQQQ/TMF - I was due for a quarterly rebalancing in July so I took the opportunity to switch to 52/4...

Nicolas Perrault

Yea they be called bonds, haven't you been paying attention? :D I don't know of something that VXX can do that bonds can't do better. It's similar for your risk and far better for your returns to have 15% long bonds than 4% VXX. Just run an efficient frontier simulation in portfoliovisualizer. The ...

Nicolas Perrault

Why don't you sell your $250k capital gains and pay $100k in tax? Because then OP would be $100k poorer. It's pretty simple. Why is it that most people find the idea of giving $50 to the first man they cross on the street abhorrent, but don't find it abhorrent to unnecessarily give taxman a $50,000...

Nicolas Perrault

There are a lot of aspects to what you bring up: risk tolerance, market timing, asset allocation and many emotions. But I will stick to the one thing that stands out immediately. You sound like you would prefer to guarantee a loss than continue living in fear of one. Yes, that's what taking $250k i...

Nicolas Perrault

I am ok paying a "fee" to reduce my max drawdown to make me stay sane in a market that can swing wildly like in March. Is there an alternative? Nothing else I could find offset a liquidity crunch like vol etfs. Yea they be called bonds, haven't you been paying attention? :D I don't know o...

Nicolas Perrault

5. Because of circuit breakers , it is not possible to lose entire balance in a single day. Not probable, but likely not impossible. The NYSE level III breaker triggers when the S&P 500 drops 20% in value in one day. If the drops are continuous, the breakers would trigger before it drops 33% (-...

Nicolas Perrault

One of my closest friends is toting his portfolio of growth stocks/indices and asked if I thought it would be crazy to put his entire retirement into AAPL (currently makes up 40% of his holdings). He works in the finance business. He regularly makes fun of my strong value tilt, and is blown away th...

Nicolas Perrault

My initial strategy was all world market cap weighted. I noticed some indexes are still down more than others such as International small cap, international property etc. Would it be anti bogle strategy to buy these, better off to just stick to all world? If you think that what comes down harder or...

Nicolas Perrault

[Berkshire Hathaway is] a nice equivalent if you don't want the dividend tax exposure from a S&P 500 fund. This is not exact. Running a factor regression on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) from 2000 to 2020, its factor loadings were 0.57 market, -0.47 size, +0.49 value, 0 momentum with a model R2 of...

Nicolas Perrault

Dear Taylor, Facts don't change. That's what makes them facts. I wouldn't call long-run large-cap value outperformance a fact though. Of course facts change! If I’m 30 today and tomorrow is my birthday then tomorrow I’ll be 31. Facts change constantly. Especially in financial markets. Modern financ...

Nicolas Perrault

This 372-year-old half-dead water bond: https://news.yale.edu/2015/09/22/living-artifact-dutch-golden-age-yale-s-367-year-old-water-bond-still-pays-interest In 1648, some town in Holland decided to finance the construction of a bridge by issuing a bond that would pay 5% "in perpetuity". La...

Nicolas Perrault

I made the mistake of tilting to small value years ago. I knew I'd have to stick with it, so I'm in it for the long haul. zaboomafoozarg: Read the very wise words of Lord Keynes: " When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? " Best wishes Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wis...

Nicolas Perrault

When I was a kid in the 1990s we had a country house that had been in our family for almost a hundred years. We still had and used a fridge there that my great-great grandfather had installed in the 1910s, one of the very earliest fridges for home use. We had it working for 80 years and it never bro...

Nicolas Perrault

I have been following this discussion and am leaning towards making a leap. I understand the strategy/associated risks and planning to invest a small slice of my portfolio (less than 5%) out of Roth IRA. I have a few questions to the group - 2. How actively do you monitor this strategy? I am trying...

Nicolas Perrault

It’s done better than UPRO in the past and some people are hoping this will continue. Other posters in this thread have stated “greed” as their motivator for using TQQQ (no joke). If TQQQ underperforms UPRO for 1-2 years, I think they’ll drop it. Anyway, welcome mt2k, and good luck. It’s done bette...

Nicolas Perrault

I have no sympathy for these people. Suing your brokerage when you bought something that was returning 18% when risk free is ~1%?? I was reading the old XIV subreddit the other day (inverse VIX futures, the product doesn’t exist anymore). Some people that had lost a lot when it collapsed had the sa...

Nicolas Perrault

privatefarmer wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:05 pm and I don’t mess with portfolio margin as IB decided to increase the margin reqs on me in the middle of the drawdown.

Interesting, would you mind to elaborate? I’m happy it’s not turning out too badly for you.

Nicolas Perrault

Mickelous wrote: ↑Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:43 pm Personally I'm a huge believer of a lot of the companies in the Nasdaq. Went through the holdings list and was definitely impressed.

I’m a believer in the idea that you can’t easily outsmart Wall Street analysts and their supercomputers.

Nicolas Perrault

:sharebeer hi Hi All, Long time lurker here and this is my first post. Many thanks to HedgeFundie to start this thread, posting his real and trackable investment, and providing with frequent updates. Many thanks to all the contributors supporting and opposing this investment approach. I have learnt...

Nicolas Perrault

What about moving 100% from UPRO to SPY if VIX hits a certain level (let’s say 25)? Portfoliovisualizer does not allow intra-month start and end dates (at least not in its free tier), but if we use 33-34 as a VIX threshold instead of 25, we can use (beginning of) March 2020 and (end of) April 2020 ...

Nicolas Perrault

To be clear, I picked VUG not for any desire to tilt to growth but purely for its lower yield. If there was a total market fund paying 1% SEC yield I’d be happy to use it over VUG. I haven't looked to see if any are available in the US but I know that in Canada and some other places there are "...

Nicolas Perrault

There may be taxable consequences. In Canada, coins bought for less than $1000 and then later sold for less than $1000 are exempt from capital gain tax. So hoarding small (1/10th of an ounce) gold coins is much better than an ETF for taxable investors. Unfortunately the Royal Canadian Mint does not ...

Nicolas Perrault

The house is worth what you‘re willing to pay for it, so you can‘t overpay!

All kidding aside, I’d probably be willing to pay a 10% premium or more over market value for a house that I “love”, if I can I afford it and I think the market estimate is fair. But “love” is a strong word.

Nicolas Perrault

Nicolas Perrault

A haven? In stocks? Here is a list of investments that are havens: *TIPS *AAA short bonds *Money markets *Bank accounts Other than tips and short bonds I ha e huge %age in MM and Bank. Can you share couple of funds which fit your criteria. Seriously considering long term treasury for my BND allocat...

Nicolas Perrault

My father, a lawyer, refuses to buy stocks and bonds online. He does everything over the phone with the bank (discount broker). He sent them a letter telling them not ever to execute any order made online on his account, so that he can easily put the blame on them if someone hacks his account. He b...

Nicolas Perrault

Nicolas Perrault

To simplify, suppose all TSM companies have 3% earnings. Suppose half the companies are “growth” companies yielding 0% in dividends (none of their earnings), and half are “value” companies yielding 3% dividends (all of their earnings). So the growth companies are reinvesting into themselves to, well...

Nicolas Perrault

A haven? In stocks?

Here is a list of investments that are havens:
*TIPS
*AAA short bonds
*Money markets
*Bank accounts

Nicolas Perrault

My father, a lawyer, refuses to buy stocks and bonds online. He does everything over the phone with the bank (discount broker). He sent them a letter telling them not ever to execute any order made online on his account, so that he can easily put the blame on them if someone hacks his account. He be...

Nicolas Perrault

Just curious and had a look at robintrack for what robinhood users were using UPRO and TMF. Over 9,000 users held UPRO and 700 users holding TMF. Under 100 holding TYD. 22,000 holding TQQQ. Not much risk parity going on there. At first I feared this strategy might face problems if everyone on the i...

Nicolas Perrault

Just curious and had a look at robintrack for what robinhood users were using UPRO and TMF. Over 9,000 users held UPRO and 700 users holding TMF. Under 100 holding TYD. 22,000 holding TQQQ. Not much risk parity going on there. I think robinhood is a favorite of the /WSB crowd, so that makes sense. ...

Nicolas Perrault

Hello Bogleheads! I am a 22 year old belgian who is planning to start his journey to FIRE I would mean the world to me if you can help me evaulate my lifeplan :) some details on me: 70+% savings rate (and happy with this frugal lifestyle) planning to reach the retirement age within 10-15 working ye...

Nicolas Perrault

That 3000 S&P is NOT Coming back anytime soon. LOL! OP remember, the market is a machine designed to make as many men as possible look like fools. Get over your emotional reluctance to lock in losses and just understand that you are protecting what you had in DECEMBER 2018. Translation: "B...

Nicolas Perrault

It's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek question but I'm also somewhat serious. Recent market volatility is making me sick, to the point where I've learned that I'm not sure I can handle it. I am not so idealistic as to believe that stocks always go up. The stock market did not recoup it's 1929 crash until...

Nicolas Perrault

Forester wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 4:50 pm SCV total return is still at 2014 levels

And European total real returns are still at 2006 levels.
And Pacific total real returns are still at 1993 levels.

2014 ain’t that bad

Nicolas Perrault

My non-indexer grandfather in his will forced my indexer father to have his inheritance actively invested in a trust by designated advisors with no permission to withdraw before my father was 55. He asked the advisors “Well since I’m paying you to advise me, advise me”. They repeatedly neglected to ...

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