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Am I claiming I know something that the market doesn't? Certainly not, but in terms of emerging markets --- in a way that would parallel cryptocurrency --- I wonder whether the market knows enough to estimate the worth of emerging market stocks to the closest order of magnitude. Since the market do...

If you suspect the financial statement numbers, you can also look at dividend yields(cold hard cash) as a gauge of value or cheapness. Here are some large EM countries... Russia - 6.3% China - 4.7% Taiwan - 4.7% South Africa - 4.4% Turkey - 4.2% For comparison the US is at 2.1% This is good if the ...

I had the chance to visit Fiji about ten years ago. What does Fiji have to do with emerging markets? Fiji isn't an emerging market. I'm confused about the relevance of your anecdote. Fiji has nothing to do with it, it could have been on the moon or in any developed country. I love Fijians, they're ...

Yes, you literally are. Your contention depends on the unproven assumption "emerging markets cannot be fairly valued," whereas the market thinks that they can be. You're welcome to operate under that assumption, or course, but you may want to avoid introducing cognitive dissonance. Actually, I'm no...

The concerns you're raising are in the category of "known unknowns". Everybody trying to price EM takes them into consideration. Some may mostly dismiss them, some may discount the price a great deal because of it. Known unknowns always create a risk both on the upside and on the downside. So your ...

ignition wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:33 pm

Aren't most of the firms in emerging markets audited by the Big Four? The same Big Four that audits firms in developed markets?

What's the Big Four?

...Re Point 1) Do you believe that, perhaps, under these assumptions you would have bought South Sea stock in 1720? You would not have if you had demanded fair value. The fair value of the company was, after all, easy to evaluate, because all of its actual earnings came from the British government ...

Actually, I'm not assuming I know anything more than the market. [...] In a world where the market knows nothing at all about the earnings of companies , the market is going to make a more or less uninformed bet. Here, I bolded the faulty assumption for you. Hi and thanks for your reply. In my book...

Am I claiming I know something that the market doesn't? Certainly not Yes, you literally are. Your contention depends on the unproven assumption "emerging markets cannot be fairly valued," whereas the market thinks that they can be. You're welcome to operate under that assumption, or course, but yo...

Actually, I'm not assuming I know anything more than the market. [...] In a world where the market knows nothing at all about the earnings of companies , the market is going to make a more or less uninformed bet. Here, I bolded the faulty assumption for you. Hi and thanks for your reply. In my book...

If you don't like EM, do not invest in EM. If there is a big boom in EM, you will miss out. That's the risk you take. Fair enough. But I guess one could say the same of cryptocurrency, gold, and Rembrandt paintings. An investment is not automatically a good one just because there's a chance of a hu...

Am I claiming I know something that the market doesn't? Certainly not Yes, you literally are. Your contention depends on the unproven assumption "emerging markets cannot be fairly valued," whereas the market thinks that they can be. You're welcome to operate under that assumption, or course, but yo...

Most investment books suggest an allocation to Emerging Markets, usually between 5 and 10%. The reasoning usually goes that they offer useful diversification. My main issue with emerging markets is that I suspect the market evaluates their value with two-inch thick rosy glasses in a fog so thick one...

If you were alive during the 1980s, you wouldn’t necessarily have realized that Japan was in a bubble. It’s obvious in hindsight, but at the time the narrative of Japanese cars and electronics taking over the world was everywhere. I guess you just mean rebalance to 10% rather than market time thoug...

I like having VGK and VPL separately (10% and 10% of my equity respectively) even if I don't usually rebalance. I do this because if Pacific (or European) stocks go barking mad and baloon to become 60% of my portfolio (as they would have done in the 1980s if I had been alive to hold them), I want to...

Hi first post here :) I'm 25, new to investing, and strongly believe in low-fee indexing. I've read William Bernstein's Intelligent Asset Allocator (2001) and am now reading his Four Pillars of Investing (2002). In the latter, p. 119, Bernstein writes: "Had you rebalanced a 50/50 S&P 500/EAFE [respe...