Search found 195 matches

by Tony-S
Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Contribution - At Once or Over Year
Replies: 13
Views: 988

Re: Roth IRA Contribution - At Once or Over Year

My $7,000 contributions are made on January 2 each year (or the following Monday if it’s a weekend). The data are clear; this leads to greater returns than DCA.
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

I believe you. I just want to know what's changed. At first, you were like "Sell everything!", ... I was never "sell everything." I went from 70/30 to 50/50 in February, then to 65/35 at the end of March. ...and then a few months later, even with cases and deaths increasing, you decided "Oh, I'll j...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

I believe you. I just want to know what's changed. At first, you were like "Sell everything!", and then a few months later, with cases and deaths increasing, you decided "Oh, I'll just stick it out at 60/40". What new information do you have? Why have you changed your view? I'll have to address thi...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

And Tony S your post is replete with unsubstantiated dark possibilities. The truth is no one knows the future. Your speculation is just a virologist’s fears. I could just as easily speculate about how spike protein vaccines likely to provide profound long lasting immunity. My post is about analyzin...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

I know at least three people that thought they were clever and tried to time this market based on what they felt was an imminent Covid related drop. All three have been battered and bloodied. I did pretty well. I saw this thing coming back in February. :happy And you did what? Sold? And when did yo...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

TimeTheMarket wrote: Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:51 pmThat's pretty damn good timing. I think timing the market is extremely hard, and generally it's a bad idea, but well done.
Yes, luck was definitely a part of it. A calculated risk. :happy
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

Maybe not smarter, but probably more knowledgeable. I work with coronaviruses (MERS and now SARS-CoV-2) and saw how it was moving through other countries, particularly Europe. I knew it was just a matter of time before it took off in the USA and without any national monitoring system in place, it w...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

You're twice as smart as me. I did not see the drop, but I did stretch myself buying more equities in March. Based on a century of data the worst case is that I would have had to wait longer to break even or make a gain. But the question now is did you get back in during March or wait on the sideli...
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8072

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

JonnyDVM wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:28 pm I know at least three people that thought they were clever and tried to time this market based on what they felt was an imminent Covid related drop. All three have been battered and bloodied.
I did pretty well. I saw this thing coming back in February. :happy
by Tony-S
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309762

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I wonder how many people who sold in February or March repurchased at a prices lower than their sale price? I went from 70/30 to 50/50 in late February then to 65/35 in late March. I've sold a bit in the last month and am currently at 62/38. Will probably just let things ride unless there's a drama...
by Tony-S
Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively managed but operating as buy and hold
Replies: 7
Views: 542

Re: Actively managed but operating as buy and hold

Burchib wrote: Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:12 am I'm so sorry. My mistake. It actually is 1.25% annually. Not monthly.
Tell us which company. I’m sure we’re all familiar with it. Most of them are quite predatory.

Regardless, it’s probably a good idea to move away from it.
by Tony-S
Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance rates for rentals
Replies: 1
Views: 207

Refinance rates for rentals

Is it true that loan rates are much higher when refinancing a rental property? We have one that currently has a rate of 3.75% and we’d like to get much lower than that.
by Tony-S
Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have 30-year mortgage rates fallen in last month? Advice for requesting re-lock
Replies: 33
Views: 2847

Re: Have 30-year mortgage rates fallen in last month? Advice for requesting re-lock

CoAndy wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:34 pm We are in the middle of a streamline refinance through Freedom Mortgage. 2.375% 20 year.
That's a great rate. What about points and other fees?
by Tony-S
Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have 30-year mortgage rates fallen in last month? Advice for requesting re-lock
Replies: 33
Views: 2847

Re: Have 30-year mortgage rates fallen in last month? Advice for requesting re-lock

Which bank is offering 2.75% these days? I can’t even get close to 3% to refi my 700k. I think jumbos are not getting as good rates. I am closing tomorrow on a 2.75% 30yr fixed no cost refi with LenderFi. Check out the Mortgage Refinance Mega Thread: LenderFi doesn't seem to be taking on new custom...
by Tony-S
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26944

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

Leesbro63 wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:18 pmI maintain that the concept of “re-retiring” after good years is part of the commonly used “4% Rule” definition.
I'd never heard this interpretation until you brought it up in this thread. I've only heard 4% first year, then the previous year's amount plus inflation each year thereafter.
by Tony-S
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule - confidence poll
Replies: 457
Views: 26944

Re: 4% rule - confidence poll

I withdrew an average of 4.59% each year during the last 22 years and went through some good size downturns. My investments still grew , so I am confident for the future. Your cohort seems to have survived the most challenging two-decade retirement window. It gives me confidence I will, too. :happy
by Tony-S
Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth
Replies: 11
Views: 871

Re: Safe withdrawal rate and portfolio growth

I have a pretty good understanding of the 3-4.5% safe withdrawal range often cited, but my confusion lies with the question of how much an overall portfolio can grow given a 4% SWR say, over a 25-30 year retirement. I seem to recall seeing some graphs which show dramatic growth of portfolio due to ...
by Tony-S
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often to contribute to Roth?
Replies: 38
Views: 1870

Re: How often to contribute to Roth?

I used to have auto-purchase set up for once a month, then at some point I changed it to 1/4 the amount @ 4 times per month to better DCA because of market fluctuations...I would find myself missing dips sometimes, but catching them other times, but now I feel they this might be simply too many tra...
by Tony-S
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting go of actively managed funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1584

Re: Letting go of actively managed funds

I think you’d be crazy to give up New Horizons. Long history of success even with different managers. I’ve had it for 23 years in an IRA and have no plans to give it up. Once you leave it you can’t get back in because it’s closed.
by Tony-S
Mon May 18, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to gradually save $6000 to max-out Roth IRA contribution in January
Replies: 54
Views: 3973

Re: Best place to gradually save $6000 to max-out Roth IRA contribution in January

Cranberry44 wrote: Sun May 17, 2020 2:05 pmIs there a recommend method for saving/"storing" $6,000 over the course of each year for the purpose of maxing out a Roth IRA contribution at the start of each new year?
I just pile mine into a money market account then on Jan 2 I make the trade.
by Tony-S
Mon May 18, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 16187

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

EnjoyIt wrote: Mon May 18, 2020 7:22 amI realize that the word "rule" is in the subject title. But, I refuse to use that word when discussing this subject matter.
“The (4%) is more what you’d call ‘guidelines’ than actual rules.” – Hector Barbossa, Pirates of the Caribbean
by Tony-S
Fri May 15, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Horizons: ETF equivalent
Replies: 8
Views: 686

Re: New Horizons: ETF equivalent

In early February I moved about 30% of my New Horizons money into Total Bond because of coronavirus. On March 31 I moved it back. It’s worked out well so far. :happy
by Tony-S
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

That information is helpful. The virus is very simple compared to even a bacterium. So if a ribosome replicated RNA at a rate of 50 base-pairs per second, it would take about 10 minutes to make one copy. Ribosomes do not replicate RNA ("base pairs"), they read the RNA sequence and then assemble ami...
by Tony-S
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

:?: Here are a few questions for virologists or anyone knowledgeable: How many copies of that initial virus would the first infected cell produce? 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 1 million? How long does it take to make those first generation copies. Minutes, hours, days? How long before that infe...
by Tony-S
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

But I read it three times and while I understand it, I think its backwards. Simple question why would a vaccine to the virus affect ACE2? An antibody targeting the spike protein of Sars Cov2 would not necessarily interact with ACE2. We're targeting the proteins on the virus, not protein the virus d...
by Tony-S
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

If the whole world could be 100% isolated, and the virus could not spread at all, after about a month it would just disappear. The virus can't spread and it would be eradicated. That's my understanding of why 2003 SARS hasn't really come back. I believe that it was eradicated in humans and only now...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

n interesting article out of one of the hardest hit cities in Massachusetts, Chelsea. It is right next to the airport. One third of participants tested randomly on the street in Chelsea had antibodies. https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus The test they...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Yeah, shocking how people care about a sudden 17% uptick of deaths despite quarantining efforts :-? :-? It will remain to be seen if there is an uptick or not. The rate for some diseases may go down, such that the total doesn't increase. Anyway, the original point of the comparison was to (partiall...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

How many flu/pneumonia deaths have their been this past couple of months? Current estimate of the 2019-2020 flu season in the USA is between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths. This means there has likely been as many coronavirus deaths in one month as there have been flu deaths since September. https://www.c...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

How many flu/pneumonia deaths have their been this past couple of months? Current estimate of the 2019-2020 flu season in the USA is between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths. This means there has likely been as many coronavirus deaths in one month as there have been flu deaths since September. https://www.c...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remdesivir is quite remarkable in its ability to limit COVID-19 pathology. See Figure 6 of this study just out today. The reduction in lung disease is quite easy to see. Warning: not for those with queasy stomachs! https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.043166v1?ct=ct I’ll save you a cl...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remdesivir is quite remarkable in its ability to limit COVID-19 pathology. See Figure 6 of this study just out today. The reduction in lung disease is quite easy to see. Warning: not for those with queasy stomachs!

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 66v1?ct=ct
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Some VERY preliminary data (more should be out soon) is suggesting Gilead Sciences Remdesivir is showing positive results (disclosure -- I don't own any of that stock unless it is in my index funds) Not surprising. Remdesivir was shown to reduce pulmonary disease in nonhuman primates experimentally...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1?fbclid=IwAR0sNSqvDsOwmN7tvsrQmTl6TGUm_ShDOs5hkooFr2ZJyhqVVp-sagdXG9o I'm sure this preliminary data will be of interest to a lot of people. That paper has some issues. First, they have not shown that the antigen they used for antibody te...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

abuss368 wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:11 am There will be plenty of movies about this! Remember "Outbreak" with Dustin Hoffman in the 1990's?
That movie was terrible. Let's hope they're more like Contagion.
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Some VERY preliminary data (more should be out soon) is suggesting Gilead Sciences Remdesivir is showing positive results (disclosure -- I don't own any of that stock unless it is in my index funds) Not surprising. Remdesivir was shown to reduce pulmonary disease in nonhuman primates experimentally...
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

CDC has simple instructions for a do-it-yourself mask you can make out of an old t-shirt. (No sewing required!) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html FYI. They don't work. And CDC is not a reputable source of information. I would like to know t...
by Tony-S
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The best animal study so far is this one, IMO. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312820301876?via%3Dihub Great study! The Nature article referenced just after did not find the virus in human blood, urine or stool, while this study for ferrets did in feces and urine. SARS-CoV-2 ...
by Tony-S
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So, is the assumption that, prior to symptoms, the virus is growing in the upper respiratory tract? And that those viruses are expelled through breathing? Breathing, and talking, even when asymptomatic. This is at least part of what's behind the CDC recently changing to recommend face coverings for...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

If someone with measles spends several minutes in a room and leaves, then someone who has never had measles or been vaccinated against measles comes into that room an hour later, there is a high probability that person will become infected with measles. What is high probability? Do you have a refer...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

:?: Do you know how any virus particles you would have to breathe to likely become infected? In other words, does the viral load matter? It seems logical that it would matter. This is known as the "infectious dose" (ID) and varies between agent and is usually expressed as the "ID50" (number of the ...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Tests like these would have value if the virus were known to be airborne rather than spread by droplet. Are you saying that this virus is spread by airborne mechanism? Are you saying droplets are never airborne? So it's transmitted by drool? Respiratory droplets are airborne. Yes, it's believed tha...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

But with an R0 of approx 5-7, polio would spread about twice as quickly as the COVID-19 causing virus (SARS-CoV-2). R0 isn't linear, it's exponential. So polio would spread much faster than 2x in a susceptible population, all things being equal. Thanks. I didn't realize that R0 was exponential. (Is...
by Tony-S
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I was watching CNBC and they had on a German doctor from Heinsberg, in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Heinsberg had 1,500 confirmed corona virus cases. Then they did a random test and found that 15% of the population was already infected. The lethality was 0,37%. This was a random sampling of ser...
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

ResearchMed wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:35 pmBut with an R0 of approx 5-7, polio would spread about twice as quickly as the COVID-19 causing virus (SARS-CoV-2).
R0 isn't linear, it's exponential. So polio would spread much faster than 2x in a susceptible population, all things being equal.
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

) CFR is overstated because virus is spread way more than what people think No, case fatality rate is a defined number One more conceptual point: The relationship between Infectivity, R0 and herd immunity The greater the infectivity R0, the smaller required percentage of the population who have exp...
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

wshang wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:31 am Deaths due to Covid-19 appear to be very low in countries with hot to very warm ambient temperatures.
I suspect humidity is as important as anything in terms of aerosol transmission. Lower humidity = more transmission.
by Tony-S
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I wanted to come back and post an update. I almost feel like saying "told you so". Although it seems this thread was reset, so older posts have been removed. It seems like it's playing exactly like I have been saying. - Warmer temperature will significantly slow down the spread (we knew this becaus...
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:17 pm Just using plane water will wash away germs, it won't kill them but it will get them off one's hands.
You may wash away 99% of them but if there are 1,000,000 bacteria on your hands, you still have 10,000 bacteria.
by Tony-S
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 77103

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So if, as someone else said somewhere above, alcohol is like nuking the bacteria and viruses, why isn't that dangerous? Yet using soap with some sort of anti-bacterial agent isn't nuclear, and allows some virulent strain of bacteria to mutate and grow. I'm not trying to be difficult, but I really d...