Search found 119 matches

by DeadPoets
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2126598

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I keep reading "get it over with" and I'm in the same boat holding about 40% vbtlx for years. But maybe, so many people in the world are now invested in the market that when the talking heads pull the plug and sell to create panic, its just the little blips we've been seeing? No more free falls bec...
by DeadPoets
Thu May 30, 2019 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 16826

Re: Market timers thread

This thread got completely ruined by “stay the course” posters. 1) I’m 100% buy and hold, don’t time the market in my retirement. But in my taxable I like to trade options, time the market, etc. I enjoy the action. 2) the creator of this thread was inviting market timers (if that’s what you’d even c...
by DeadPoets
Thu May 30, 2019 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are people buying VTI today or waiting for a bigger drop in June
Replies: 30
Views: 3770

Re: Are people buying VTI today or waiting for a bigger drop in June

I time the market and trade options in my taxable account. My retirement is buy and hold. So I would tell OP to sell cash secured VTI puts at a strike price OTM. That way you make a premium on the put (plus the money market yield in Vanguard’s settlement account), while you wait the market to drop. ...
by DeadPoets
Sun May 26, 2019 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 41
Views: 3285

Re: Any option traders?

Since I’m fairly new to this (hence starting the thread), can someone explain to me what trading the spread means? Maybe cite a couple examples of exactly how it’s done. I’d look it up online but I’d rather hear from people with real experience doing it. A spread is general and usually refers to bu...
by DeadPoets
Fri May 24, 2019 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 41
Views: 3285

Re: Any option traders?

Since I’m fairly new to this (hence starting the thread), can someone explain to me what trading the spread means?

Maybe cite a couple examples of exactly how it’s done.

I’d look it up online but I’d rather hear from people with real experience doing it.
by DeadPoets
Tue May 21, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 41
Views: 3285

Any option traders?

If so, what do you typically trade (buyer or seller of puts/calls?), and what do you like at the moment? I sold some 3M 160 puts about 2 weeks ago. I have my eye on Nvidia at the moment. 50% fall in such a short period of time. That’s crazy for a semi with really good fundamentals. I know it’s China...
by DeadPoets
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1903
Views: 198591

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

This market goes as the Fed goes.

When rate hikes resume, the sell off begins.

When Powell once again uses language like, “we aren’t even close to neutral,” the sell off deepens.

The trade deal is def just noise at this point.
by DeadPoets
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 698

Re: Calculating ROI w dividends

Dialectical Investor wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:10 am
DeadPoets wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:35 am
Dialectical Investor wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:48 pm
Have you tried the "Balances Over Time" page? That should include dividends and provide internal rate of return.
I don’t see where that is
My Accounts > Balances & holdings, then there is a tab at the top for Balances over time.
Oh I found it. Thanks!
by DeadPoets
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 698

Re: Calculating ROI w dividends

Dialectical Investor wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:48 pm
Have you tried the "Balances Over Time" page? That should include dividends and provide internal rate of return.
I don’t see where that is
by DeadPoets
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 698

Re: Calculating ROI w dividends

So let me give you my example

Dividends are reinvested.

Total cost = 3804
Ending balance = 4115
Dividends = 30
Short term capital gains = 311
by DeadPoets
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: Calculating ROI w dividends

So let me give you my example

Dividends are reinvested.

Total cost = 3804
Ending balance = 4115
Dividends = 30
Short term capital gains = 311


Wouldn’t it be (311 + 30) / 3804
by DeadPoets
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: Calculating ROI w dividends

So let me give you my example

Dividends are reinvested.

Total cost = 3804
Ending balance = 4115
Dividends = 30
Short term capital gains = 311


Wouldn’t it be (311 + 30) / 3804
by DeadPoets
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Calculating ROI w dividends

Calculating ROI using Vanguard’s website. Under personal performance they show market gain/loss and income return. Do I add both of those amounts together and then divide by total cost? Or just use market gain/loss (because I reinvest dividends). /when you go to cost basis it only shows you capital ...
by DeadPoets
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating ROI w dividends
Replies: 8
Views: 698

Calculating ROI w dividends

Calculating ROI using Vanguard’s website. Under personal performance they show market gain/loss and income return. Do I add both of those amounts together and then divide by total cost? Or just use market gain/loss (because I reinvest dividends). /when you go to cost basis it only shows you capital ...
by DeadPoets
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism
Replies: 28
Views: 3590

Re: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism

One other takeaway from that article (Thanks Dave!).....Better think about increasing your emerging markets allocation. That 10-year return forecast does not look especially promising for the US and Developed countries. The 10 year forecast after 08 crash was a disaster for US. Forecasts mean nothi...
by DeadPoets
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit / VXUS
Replies: 24
Views: 2344

Re: Brexit / VXUS

I know I'm market timing/ thinking too much about this, I guess I just need to talk to a good much of experts here. I recently moved a sizable investment in VXUS and I'm worried that Brexit may sink it. I know I should stop thinking this, but any thoughts on how best to avoid these jitters? -J The ...
by DeadPoets
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI increases China A shares in index to 20% from 5%
Replies: 13
Views: 1777

MSCI increases China A shares in index to 20% from 5%

Will vanguard emerging markets do the same?
by DeadPoets
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 327 Years of British Equity History
Replies: 19
Views: 2193

Re: 327 Years of British Equity History

Pretty cool but I question the accuracy of data that old.
by DeadPoets
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good time to invest in emerging markets?
Replies: 22
Views: 3470

Re: Good time to invest in emerging markets?

Not big into EM. Way too many things have to go right in some of those countries within the portfolio.

If you like some of those emerging markets then why not just buy US companies that do business there?

YUM
WMT
MMM
Etc etc
by DeadPoets
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's to Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 19
Views: 2328

Re: Here's to Tax Loss Harvesting

I can TLH harvest from VTSAX to VFIAX right? Without wash sale.
by DeadPoets
Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets as a percent of international
Replies: 37
Views: 3240

Re: Emerging markets as a percent of international

I like EM better than ex-US.

I’d do 5-10%
by DeadPoets
Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 9301

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

Bogleheads: Five years ago Small-Cap Value funds were doing well and heavily promoted by the financial industry: 100% Stock Portfolio in Small Cap Value?? Today Small-Cap Value funds have the WORST 5-year return of all Morningstar's 14 U.S. Equity categories. 2018 Index Performance Lesson learned: ...
by DeadPoets
Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Growth Next Decade?
Replies: 48
Views: 4045

Re: Expected Growth Next Decade?

I completely disagree with Vanguard’s predictions of ex-US outperforming US for next decade. Get real. I’ve seen the allocation in those ex-US funds. 42% in Europe? Most of those countries have ridiculously poor fundamentals, banks are still over-leveraged, and capitalism is non-existent. I’ll pass ...
by DeadPoets
Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An emergency fund cautionary tale
Replies: 89
Views: 11333

Re: An emergency fund cautionary tale

I call BS that 54% cant find a $400 dollar expense.

Just another way they try to move us towards a “livable wage” law.
by DeadPoets
Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: “The Failure Of Factor Investing Was Predictable”
Replies: 15
Views: 2326

Re: Larry Swedroe: “The Failure Of Factor Investing Was Predictable”

Reversion to the mean. I could easily see a scenario where lcg outperforms scv for next 15-30 years. It’s funny that Bogle was asked in 2011 about scv and wrote a piece on it. He correctly predicted a reversion. Shouldn’t have been that hard to see. Plus, the data/accuracy with regards to scv return...
by DeadPoets
Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 17172

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

I much prefer to own the TSM and just tilt towards individual stocks if I’m gonna tilt at all. (Maybe 10% of equities)

That seems more reasonable to me than tilting towards value or growth etc.
by DeadPoets
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 57471

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

RIP. He personally got me into indexing.

I’m forever grateful.
by DeadPoets
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 9335

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

I also avoid emerging markets for the reasons OP stated. However, these 2nd and 3rd world countries have a greater chance of “emerging” today thanks to all the advancements in technology.

So if there was a good reason to invest in EM I would say that’s it.
by DeadPoets
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 5014

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

Ex-US doesn’t interest me. Maybe I’ll pay a price for that, but I just don’t see enough there for me to allocate 30-40% of my equities that way. Cheaper doesn’t always mean better. A lot of those countries have some have major hurdles to overcome politically, globally, etc. Not saying US doesn’t eit...
by DeadPoets
Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 12065

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

CyberGuy wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:52 pm
You can call me crazy but I have a hard time predicting which asset allocation will be best in a given year.

Image


So why not just buy them all with a 3 fund portfolio?
Where can I find 17 and 18?
by DeadPoets
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 128
Views: 12065

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

GibsonL6s wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:05 pm
I personally don't tilt by cap weighting it is not "analyzable" in my view. If I want to have "fun", I would make a sector or individual stock bet.
This. I would tilt to individual stocks before scv.
by DeadPoets
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 143
Views: 13311

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

To everything (turn, turn, turn) There is a season (turn, turn, turn) And a time to every purpose, under heaven A time for value, a time for growth A time for large, a time for small A time for bonds, a time for cash A time to ask which car brand is better... In the first half of the 2000s, Small C...
by DeadPoets
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 6463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Mr. Swedroe's Conclusion: "My conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative." It is difficult (and expensive) to try to "beat the market." Best wishes. Taylor Meanwhile...
by DeadPoets
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?
Replies: 94
Views: 25095

Re: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?

If I'm reinvesting dividends and holding this index fund for long periods (3-10 years), why would the taxes hurt me in a 60/40 fund? If the fund is held in a taxable account, the quarterly dividends from the bond portion will create non-qualified dividends that are taxed at you marginal rate. If yo...
by DeadPoets
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?
Replies: 94
Views: 25095

Re: Is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund all you need?

If I'm reinvesting dividends and holding this index fund for long periods (3-10 years), why would the taxes hurt me in a 60/40 fund?
by DeadPoets
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 14630

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

If the markets made it through World War II, the great depression, the financial crisis of '08, creation of the Fed, etc... why would this time be any different?

Every time the market turns sour, regardless of decade or century, people convince themselves that this time it's different.
by DeadPoets
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 14630

Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to market time

Jack Bogle has had various allocations attributed to him over the years: age in bonds, 60/40, 50/50, 35/65, whatever. In The Little Book of Common Sense Investing he recommends a range of 25%-75% equities-take your pick. So he is not really trying to "time the market". He is simply discussing chang...
by DeadPoets
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF
Replies: 4
Views: 289

Re: JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF

The answer seems the same. You can either get what you want in the target-date fund or something else in the S&P 500 fund. Of course, there's another option: you can treat your wife and your accounts as one. If you have good bond options elsewhere, you can leave this 401k in the S&P 500 fund and lo...
by DeadPoets
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF
Replies: 4
Views: 289

Re: JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:15 am
Looks fine. The cost is not out of line at .26%. Use it.
I edited my original post to include my conundrum. See the part about the blackrock s&p500 index fund vs JPMCB Smart Retirement Fund.
by DeadPoets
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF
Replies: 4
Views: 289

JPMCB Smart Retirement 2050 CF

It's slim pickings with my wife's 401k (especially with regards to bonds. High costs!) This target date retirement fund was available - curious what you guys think? Overview of the fund https://www.voyaretirementplans.com/fundonepagerscolor/3039.pdf Performance as of 9/30/2018 https://am.jpmorgan.co...
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4845

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

What magic? You get what the market returns - which historically speaking has been nothing to scoff at. There's more than one way to skin a cat. Some people on here profess there is only one way to invest and that it's the best way no ifs ands or buts about it and it's just not true. Of course ther...
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4845

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

It's a very reasonable allocation. A small value index fund has plenty of stocks to be diversified. The magic of a total market fund is highly overrated on this site as a one size fits all allocation that does admittedly work for the average "know nothing about investing" person. The international ...
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4845

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

Why not 100% small cap growth, it seemed to do much better over the last 10 years. Also doing better YTD. There’s a decent argument to be made here - and it’s why I choose TSM in the end. SCV has long term sex appeal. Growth stocks are crushing it at the moment and might continue into the future. I...
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4845

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

In the last 5 years scv has been crushed by growth stocks.

Has that advantage for scv started to revert back to the mean? Don’t know.
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account
Replies: 10
Views: 1022

Re: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account

Thanks for the advice
by DeadPoets
Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over 120 Vanguard funds go transaction free at E*trade
Replies: 34
Views: 4876

Re: Over 120 Vanguard funds go transaction free at E*trade

"Starting September 19, we’re adding more than 120 Vanguard mutual funds to our no-load, no-transaction-fee mutual fund program. This includes at least one of the Vanguard funds currently in your portfolio." You're welcome. I just moved a bunch of cash from one Etrade account to my taxable account ...
by DeadPoets
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account
Replies: 10
Views: 1022

Re: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account

The tax drag wouldn't be too bad on 30K at 80/20, but remember you will also have capital gains taxes and most importantly, market risk with 80% stock. Roth contributions can be taken out pre-retirement (just not the growth), but if you want to keep the money safe and get some growth (2-3%) for spe...
by DeadPoets
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account
Replies: 10
Views: 1022

Re: Life Stategy Growth Fund - taxable account

You should take another look at the Roth IRA rules before you discard that idea. A separate question is do you really want to switch your house down payment $$ from 0% stocks to 80% stocks? We hate that the $$$ is making nothing right now (though I’ve got it laddered in 1 month treasuries at the mo...