Search found 47 matches

by targetconfusion
Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get quicker hot water
Replies: 45
Views: 2485

Re: How to get quicker hot water

I did realize at one point if I shut off the pump the water continues to circulate just by gravity but every month or will reach some ideal conditions to make circulation stop and I have to turn on the pump again to get things started. So I just leave the pump on all the time. Interesting.. is it s...
by targetconfusion
Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on Ivy league Hedge funds under performing
Replies: 5
Views: 1099

Re: Bloomberg article on Ivy league Hedge funds under performing

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:54 pm
Endowments have very different time horizons than you or me.
But isn't that even more embarrassing? Usually longer horizon means more risk tolerance and correspondingly more opportunity to beat the humble 60/40.
by targetconfusion
Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making money with oversized rooftop solar system?
Replies: 22
Views: 2668

Re: Making money with oversized rooftop solar system?

Obviously, this deal is so good that other people would have jumped on this so what am I missing? Possibly nothing. It's not out of the question for rooftop PV to make economic sense. Plenty have jumped on it. It tends to do so for (1) high electricity rates, (2) high irradiance (combination of geo...
by targetconfusion
Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?
Replies: 16
Views: 1716

Re: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?

You bought SCHB. Now that ETFs are free trades, are you going to stick with it as you continue to save and invest? Or will you switch to VTI? Or, (c), will you spend the rest of your days wondering if the IRS would consider them not-substantially identical enough to ping pong between them to loss h...
by targetconfusion
Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio: How to create it?
Replies: 39
Views: 2440

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio: How to create it?

It's even more unlikely than that. For my Excellent Adventure to be total loss, both the S&P and long duration Treasuries must drop 34% on the same day. Moreover, nobody is really suggesting someone deploy their entire investable assets into this. So even if both S&P and treasury bonds dropped 34% ...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you see effects of compound interest on net worth?
Replies: 36
Views: 4055

Re: When do you see effects of compound interest on net worth?

Wouldn't the formula be the same for everyone: 1/[aggregate investment return]? E.g., if we use Burton Malkiel's average large cap equity return from the Bogleheads wiki, which is 12.3%, it's a bit over 8. If we use Bogle's expected 10 year bond return from 2017, which is 3.1%, we get around 32. htt...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximate Total Stock Market - 457b PDSIX and DISSX
Replies: 7
Views: 490

Re: Approximate Total Stock Market - 457b PDSIX and DISSX

Those expense ratios aren't doing her many favors! In her position, (without having run numbers) I'd lean toward 100% PDSIX and follow your plan to grab other desired allocation outside the plan. It's never fun forgoing mid- and small-cap, but it's also not fun paying high expense ratios and large c...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wheel Alignment?
Replies: 18
Views: 1564

Re: Wheel Alignment?

Alignments are not in my vehicle's maintenance schedule, so I don't do them as maintenance items. Of course a shop that sells alignments will recommend alignments highly. I have done them following repairs to steering or suspension components, e.g., after replacing a tie rod end. I generally stick ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day Trading for a Living?
Replies: 44
Views: 4066

Day Trading for a Living?

This will come as difficult news to this community, but according to this paper, basically nobody makes money day trading. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101 (access requires signup but no payment) "We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013...
by targetconfusion
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lemonade Insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 2505

Re: Lemonade Insurance

I have both Geico (for auto) and Lemonade (renter's). Have made one claim with Geico (wife in accident) and two with Lemonade (both bicycle thefts) and got zero pushback. Lemonade's claim process, in particular, was streamlined and smartphone-based and all very millenialesque. But we really just tri...
by targetconfusion
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

You can use leveraged ETFs in an IRA (at Schwab at least) like 3x fund UPRO. That one has the advantage that we know it works. It has the same downside of futures, though, in that it teleports out of the IRA in a down market. I think I've convinced myself that a one-way valve between the taxable an...
by targetconfusion
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluating interest-only mortgage
Replies: 13
Views: 1406

Re: Evaluating interest-only mortgage

Agree with Charon. It sounds like you're weighing the important things and so the decision may turn on whether you value optimal financial behavior or the feeling (and spouse's feeling) of safety and comfort, which has different prices to different people. "Interest-only" rings risky to most of us w...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

Interesting idea. Have you done an analysis on the benefits? IOW, how much are the potential tax savings across N years for a given base amount? How does this compare to the risk of losing tax-free space? Not yet - just started wondering about it and hoped the wisdom of the forum would surface any ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

I don’t know about TDA and it has been a few years since I sat at either a IRA or margin desk. However that “bit higher” margin requirement tends to really kill the strategy in real terms. Not totally, but it puts a real gimp in it. So be forwarded. It's good advice - expecting leverage of all flav...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

So you'd have funds basically un-invested until you were done teleporting? Interesting idea, though. Yes - at least to whatever margin the broker required. In theory you could maintain desired leverage, though, if you had been invested in something common, by replacing [investment X] with whatever ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1180

Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

Overall question : Is it possible to legally “teleport” funds into a Roth IRA by taking a long, leveraged position inside the rIRA and an offsetting short position outside of it? Here teleport means effectively increase rIRA balance without contributions, conversions, or rollovers and with a corres...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 31, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does one need a bank account anymore?
Replies: 60
Views: 4693

Re: Does one need a bank account anymore?

I've gotten by without a brick and mortar bank for over a decade. Schwab can handle (nearly) everything for me, and I can pull cash from any ATM with fees reimbursed. However, I have been unable to cash in my fully matured Series EE savings bonds. My local Schwab doesn't do it (Schwab brokerage is ...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 24, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Renters Insurance Brand/Company should I use?
Replies: 13
Views: 1498

Re: Which Renters Insurance Brand/Company should I use?

JD Leonard wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:46 pm
Consider Lemonade if it's available where you live. Low cost. I use them. No claims thus far.
I've had two claims with Lemonade, both for stolen bicycles. Both were paid, and process couldn't have been easier.
by targetconfusion
Fri May 24, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 44
Views: 7410

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

You could fit an autoregressive model to past stock returns. If the AR coefficients are negative, for example an AR(3) model r(t) = e(t) + c1*r(t-1) + c2*r(t-2) + c3*r(t-3) where c1 = c2 = c3 = -0.05, you can simulate it to model a mean-reverting stock market. But if you believe mean reversion in t...
by targetconfusion
Thu May 23, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 182
Views: 32593

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

We have ~one month's expenses in checking-account cash. Big debits inevitably sent it negative a few times a year, which triggers an automatic margin loan from the linked (Schwab) brokerage account. Then, sell however much SCHB is needed to close the shortfall. Margin loan rates are high (8 or 9% no...
by targetconfusion
Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--How Schwab Ate Wall Street
Replies: 82
Views: 10525

Re: Brokerage income source may surprise you

I'm among those who have found the Schwab experience to be generally excellent, but was turned off by discovering how much cash their robo-investor service (Schwab Intelligent Portfolio or something) forces you to hold. I don't hold significant cash in brokerage (or for that matter checking, instead...
by targetconfusion
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 295713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thanks, DonIce, for the detailed and earnest reply. I have a few counterquestions, which I always find myself needing to ask to hone my understanding of investment nuances. (hopefully there are other noobs of my ilk benefitting and I’m not wantonly squandering forum space). First, a short position t...
by targetconfusion
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 295713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Why everyone doesn't do it is probably due to the inherent risks in shorting. If the S&P were to drop 50% in a short period, the 3x short will lose MORE than 150% more than likely(due to compounded returns). You also have to pay to borrow and pay for margin(if require). Its a lot more complicated a...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Currently with Schwab private client--and decided to get out--but what to do
Replies: 16
Views: 3067

Re: Currently with Schwab private client--and decided to get out--but what to do

the "year to date change" in the index value reported by Schwab only shows the change in the value of the price index, while the total return number reported by Vanguard includes...you guessed it...dividends paid by the stocks in the index which are included in the total return. This seems so obvio...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 295713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

As for vol drag, I have decided to short SPXU and TMV rather than going long UPRO and TMF. This is a bit more advanced than simply going long, so I am not recommending anyone follow. This may be a stupid question, but what's the advantage of shorting short over going long? Is it simply a cheaper wa...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 98
Views: 10089

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

I am thinking about selling some stock ETFs after one of the strongest gains in the stock market since christmas 2018. I know that this slope that we're on cannot continue and has never historically continued at this rate, so a correction is inevitable. We're on pace for nearly a 60% return for the...
by targetconfusion
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 295713

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

As for vol drag, I have decided to short SPXU and TMV rather than going long UPRO and TMF. This is a bit more advanced than simply going long, so I am not recommending anyone follow. This may be a stupid question, but what's the advantage of shorting short over going long? Is it simply a cheaper wa...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity, Schwab unseat Vanguard in new phase of fintech
Replies: 29
Views: 3874

Re: Fidelity, Schwab unseat Vanguard in new phase of fintech

It seems like airlines; whichever one just delayed you is always the worst. I ended up at Schwab sort of by accident after initially opening a checking account for the "no fees anywhere in the world period" debit card (more common now but more a a novelty back then), but as best I can tell from othe...
by targetconfusion
Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being silly (too cheap) to not buy a new minivan?
Replies: 23
Views: 1789

Re: Am I being silly (too cheap) to not buy a new minivan?

From a purely financial perspective, FrugalProfessor is nailing it. Most of us have other decision-making criteria, though, and we rarely hear from minivan owners with kids that don't find them greatly enabling. Car seats, strollers, warehouse stores, friends/family, etc - the space finds a use. $38...
by targetconfusion
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: EINs when filing separately
Replies: 6
Views: 623

Re: EINs when filing separately

I have a related question (which may be either different enough that I'm "hijacking" this thread or similar enough that posting elsewhere would be immediately replied to with a link to this one). Anyway, my separately filing wife and I are in a similar boat with our nanny (currently unshared with ot...
by targetconfusion
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The lawyers who took on Big Tobacco are aiming at Realtors and their 6% fee
Replies: 34
Views: 3679

Re: The lawyers who took on Big Tobacco are aiming at Realtors and their 6% fee

rkhusky wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:11 pm
How often does the agent not get anything because the buyer or seller bails before a sale?

When I look at our area on Zillow, only 1% or less are for sale by owner. There must be a reason for that.
I think that's these lawyers' point.
by targetconfusion
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to "cash-only" restaurants?
Replies: 109
Views: 4831

Re: Going to "cash-only" restaurants?

They are probably operating on a slim margin and the credit card fees really add up. I have no problem paying cash as long as they don't tell me after I already ate the meal. I appreciate a big sign on the door. +1 I have a small business and never understood why I have to pay a 3rd party 2% to 3% ...
by targetconfusion
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocation - buy or rent in new city
Replies: 13
Views: 1202

Re: Relocation - buy or rent in new city

We're in a somewhat parallel situation and have been grappling with the same question. Early/mid 30s in Chicago, moving to MSP this summer. One two year-old and likely another. Wife just took a job in Maple Grove, and I'll likely go "remote" with the same company. Wife's parents live in St Louis Par...
by targetconfusion
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacement shares with wash sale
Replies: 20
Views: 2599

Re: Replacement shares with wash sale

I wouldn't consider it only an academic interest. I would think the question would have bearing on the correct way to prepare the tax return documents, even if the end result doesn't change. Agreed - the point of the thought experiment was to reveal the mechanism that leads to the answer, not to be...
by targetconfusion
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6977

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

This may not literally be true, depending on debt seniority, but it feels like if the federal government can't pay its employees (or pensions), then its bonds are in trouble, too. Not all bonds are federal, of course, but given the economywide chaos that would likely be unfolding when the government...
by targetconfusion
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4697

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

Why do people have such a strong belief to promote a product with a statistically negative return (and negative risk) that isn't even 100% reliable on paying out in the event of a claim anyway? Keeping with OP's numbers-based framing of this question, I'd argue insurance purchase could hold positiv...
by targetconfusion
Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a mini-van
Replies: 25
Views: 2088

Re: Buying a mini-van

Any investing-related point I have has always been made more eloquently by someone else, so I'm reluctantly accepting that my role so far on the BH forums is basically "minivan evangelist." As many others have said, if you want to look cool, get a Pilot/Highlander/other vehicle designed for folks wh...
by targetconfusion
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canada Goose Jacket
Replies: 57
Views: 4887

Re: Canada Goose Jacket

Does anyone find themselves wishing for better insulating data to characterizing winter coats? The common down metric now is fill power, which is basically insulating value per pound but says nothing of (1) the total insulation mass or (2) insulating materials other than down. Occasionally you can f...
by targetconfusion
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sequoia or Land Cruiser
Replies: 25
Views: 1653

Re: Sequoia or Land Cruiser

Great feedback. The Pilot is definitely a consideration. What about the Explorer? We have 3 kids and really just need something spacious for them. Our main vehicle right now is my wife’s 2016 Camry. It’s very tight in the back for them. If it's space you're after, since nobody has said it yet, have...
by targetconfusion
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which emergency alert system for elderly?
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Which emergency alert system for elderly?

Never used it and cannot vouch for reliability, but Apple's newest watch model ("series 4") is supposed to detect falls, among other things. They've historically made consumer-friendly products - even easier for someone who happened to already use an iProduct. https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208944
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Public Student Loan Forgiveness Program Rejects 99% of Applicants
Replies: 27
Views: 2664

Re: Public Student Loan Forgiveness Program Rejects 99% of Applicants

"99% rejected" makes a great headline, but an even better one would be "70% of PSLF didn't bother reading the rules and 28% couldn't fill out the form right." This is the story. We really did not learn much from this statistic because the sample of forgiveable loans was small. The next few years wi...
by targetconfusion
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car accident, diminished value claim?
Replies: 18
Views: 2888

Re: Car accident, diminished value claim?

Good to hear nobody hurt. We did it in Florida after being hit, stopped at a light, by a cement mixer. Low speed, nobody hurt, and it was beyond dispute whose fault it was. Getting the car fixed was quick, pursuing DV takes a little prep. Plan, at least, for an appraisal (I used CarMax quote) and a ...
by targetconfusion
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 6213

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

You seem to be trying to use math to eliminate uncertainty. I think that is a bit of a fools errand. marcopolo has come the closest to saying what many seem to be tap-dancing around: Monte Carlo is a mere algorithm, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with assumptions about how much the future rese...
by targetconfusion
Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else not save for cars?
Replies: 113
Views: 10913

Re: Anyone else not save for cars?

+1 in the "not saving" camp. It has always felt strange to me that the (unscientifically) default BH car guidance is not to finance. To be fair, there are at least two good reasons for not financing: 1. Not knowing how much car to buy - if financing will make you buy more car than you otherwise woul...
by targetconfusion
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Earn 1.5% on your checking account without the usual hoops (at Fidelity)
Replies: 72
Views: 15124

Re: Earn 1.5% on your checking account without the usual hoops (at Fidelity)

Schwab also does this - a margin feature that covers checking drafts by adding negative cash balance to your brokerage. The interest rate is 8% or something high, but does not much matter because (1) the amount is always small and (2) the time period of the loan is short, usually whatever it takes f...
by targetconfusion
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Income sharing in lieu of College loans?
Replies: 2
Views: 437

Re: Income sharing in lieu of College loans?

Seems like it helps align students' and schools' incentives - the college is betting that its degree will be worth it. Someone will probably get mad and say the students are being taken advantage of, but it's really no different than what's already happening with income-driven repayment plans for fe...
by targetconfusion
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I buy a Tesla?
Replies: 140
Views: 11919

Re: Can I buy a Tesla?

Just wanted to update here since I got so many useful replies. I bought the fully loaded model 3 :sharebeer Good for you. Cars are an odd mix of (1) practical necessity and (2) aesthetic consumption item - so which of the two are we after here? If (1) it's a hard "No, get (e.g.) a 5-year old Camry....