Search found 69 matches

by targetconfusion
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3412

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

I'm in the crowd that doesn't track what these kind of people say, but within the [is this actionable?] context I don't think he's totally wrong about the possibility. The future defies prediction. The US came to occupy its current position relative recently in the context of history and isn't assur...
by targetconfusion
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8102

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

In this thread, I learn that some people have a very difficult time wrapping their heads around hypotheticals. When I say that P implies Q, it is not necessarily true that I think Q is true. It means that IF P is true, THEN Q is true. So for example, to clarify for the sake of discussions in this t...
by targetconfusion
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8102

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

What in the world does the word "reliably" mean in your post? "due to strategy and not luck". Those are hard to completely disentangle, of course. For example, tech has crushed equities at-large since at least the recession, and someone could conclude that investing in it is a reliably winning stra...
by targetconfusion
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8102

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

I was surprised to find that nobody had responded yet with this XKCD episode highlighting (with characteristic wit and humor) OP's point: https://xkcd.com/2270/ But then a quick search of the forum revealed it's been posted at least twice previously: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 332

Re: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund

If it's really just those five a more precise/higher fuss option might be to maintain short positions in those five tickers at whatever level of offset you're looking for. If OP works for one of those five they are likely forbidden from shorting their own employer. They could short the other four o...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 332

Re: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund

vineviz wrote: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:51 pm The fund you're looking for exists: ProShares S&P 500 ex-Technology ETF (SPXT).
Are the top 3 holdings Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet? If so, may still be kind of techy for OP.
proshares.com/funds/spxt.html
by targetconfusion
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund
Replies: 11
Views: 332

Re: Sp495 Fund/VTI-5 fund

If it's really just those five a more precise/higher fuss option might be to maintain short positions in those five tickers at whatever level of offset you're looking for.
by targetconfusion
Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private Equity Gets a Big Win With U.S. Nod to Tap 401(k) Plans
Replies: 65
Views: 5334

Re: Private Equity Gets a Big Win With U.S. Nod to Tap 401(k) Plans

The high fees and opacity give me the same pause some others here have. On the other hand, could there be any benefit to broader market access? The private market eyeballs to ~20% of the public market in this Vanguard piece (with data through 2016 - please correct me with a better, more-recent figur...
by targetconfusion
Thu May 28, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mother's or Father's Insurance for Newborn
Replies: 19
Views: 1043

Re: Mother's or Father's Insurance for Newborn

Bambino is required to be on Mother's insurance for the first 30 days. If we decide to add him to Father's plan, the effective date would be 30 days after birth. Did you get this from all of them? I've never heard of newborn insurance working like this. Everything I've ever seen or heard states tha...
by targetconfusion
Wed May 27, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Golden Butterfly March 2020
Replies: 6
Views: 1209

Re: Golden Butterfly March 2020

Serious question: How much Golden Butterfly fascination stems from the name? Next to **The Golden Butterfly**, "Three-fund Portfolio" could ring staid. But rebranded? Someone would really have to think before picking the GB over, e.g., the Resplendent Troika.
by targetconfusion
Tue May 26, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy now or rent for a while
Replies: 13
Views: 1053

Re: Buy now or rent for a while

Another option: if lenders are offering "physician loan" products in your area (no idea what's happened to those since COVID) it could be worth a look. Lower down payment would let you continue vectoring some cash into tax-advantaged accounts. It is, you're right, a shame to any of each year's tax-d...
by targetconfusion
Tue May 26, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worst House on the best block?
Replies: 52
Views: 4565

Re: Worst House on the best block?

School "rankings" are generally just a representation of the general wealth in the area. Even though I have two young kids we place virtually no emphasis on rankings (we pulled my daughter out of the highest ranked school in the county because it was awful, local school is miles better in every way...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 22, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7472

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool His funds don't have results that are posted publi...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 22, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7472

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool This is the point, I think. Is playing high-reward...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 22, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7472

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

[...] Thanks! One last question concerning this point Taleb, basically, believes the probability of extreme events ("tail risk") to be higher than most Bogleheads might. BHs (and I'm in the this camp, lest it sound pejorative) basically believe the future will look roughly like the past. Not that ev...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 22, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7472

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb called Asness 'disgusting "AQR" luantic' ... I've yet to see the other side of the exchange but that's nuts. Already losing some respect here. Seems like COVID is driving even the smartest folks nuts. :twisted: Taleb has never really been a diplomat and this isn't new twitter behavior for him...
by targetconfusion
Thu May 07, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing not to correct all billing/financial errors
Replies: 68
Views: 4769

Re: Choosing not to correct all billing/financial errors

8foot7 wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 11:59 am I almost always let things go that are $5 or under - whether they are in my favor or not.
The funny thing about billing errors is that they seem always to be in the biller's favor.
by targetconfusion
Wed May 06, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull-ups and Push-ups
Replies: 572
Views: 148804

Re: Need to be able to do 30 chin-ups

For this type of stuff people seem to really like "greasing the groove": https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/bro-do-you-even-grease-the-groove/598837/ And as Grt2bOutdoors pointed out, yes, losing a couple of pounds could help the denominator of the strength/weight ratio that's so det...
by targetconfusion
Tue May 05, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dyson Handheld Vacuum Cleaner - Battery replacement
Replies: 13
Views: 830

Re: Dyson Handheld Vacuum Cleaner - Battery replacement

It wasn't a Dyson pack specifically, but we bought off-brand CR2032 batteries for our car keys and immediately regretted it. Some were dead on arrival; others faded quickly. We replaced with Energizers and have had no problems since. It's an N of 1 and, again, not Dyson, but illustrated that at leas...
by targetconfusion
Sun May 03, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you invest based on historical performance?
Replies: 13
Views: 841

Re: Do you invest based on historical performance?

Yes. Past performance assures future returns. The US has done the best in recent years and therefore will continue to do so. The best thing to do is figure out which stocks have the most momentum and buy as much of them as possible. If they have dual momentum it’s twice as good.
by targetconfusion
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."
Replies: 61
Views: 9193

Re: Rick Ferri: "You have to stick with that plan for the rest of your life."

Not endorsing frequent strategy-switching, but: Is Rick Ferri succumbing here to the gambler's fallacy?
by targetconfusion
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy plastic bags for your home trash bins?
Replies: 99
Views: 7333

Re: Do you buy plastic bags for your home trash bins?

AerialWombat wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:21 pm I don’t think I have ever owned a trash can, so have no need for something sized to fit one.
Wait.. what?
by targetconfusion
Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get quicker hot water
Replies: 45
Views: 2735

Re: How to get quicker hot water

I did realize at one point if I shut off the pump the water continues to circulate just by gravity but every month or will reach some ideal conditions to make circulation stop and I have to turn on the pump again to get things started. So I just leave the pump on all the time. Interesting.. is it s...
by targetconfusion
Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on Ivy league Hedge funds under performing
Replies: 5
Views: 1374

Re: Bloomberg article on Ivy league Hedge funds under performing

TomatoTomahto wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:54 pm Endowments have very different time horizons than you or me.
But isn't that even more embarrassing? Usually longer horizon means more risk tolerance and correspondingly more opportunity to beat the humble 60/40.
by targetconfusion
Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making money with oversized rooftop solar system?
Replies: 22
Views: 2961

Re: Making money with oversized rooftop solar system?

Obviously, this deal is so good that other people would have jumped on this so what am I missing? Possibly nothing. It's not out of the question for rooftop PV to make economic sense. Plenty have jumped on it. It tends to do so for (1) high electricity rates, (2) high irradiance (combination of geo...
by targetconfusion
Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?
Replies: 16
Views: 1992

Re: Bogleheads at Schwab - will you start buying Vanguard ETFs instead?

You bought SCHB. Now that ETFs are free trades, are you going to stick with it as you continue to save and invest? Or will you switch to VTI? Or, (c), will you spend the rest of your days wondering if the IRS would consider them not-substantially identical enough to ping pong between them to loss h...
by targetconfusion
Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio: How to create it?
Replies: 39
Views: 3105

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's portfolio: How to create it?

It's even more unlikely than that. For my Excellent Adventure to be total loss, both the S&P and long duration Treasuries must drop 34% on the same day. Moreover, nobody is really suggesting someone deploy their entire investable assets into this. So even if both S&P and treasury bonds dropped 34% ...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you see effects of compound interest on net worth?
Replies: 36
Views: 4395

Re: When do you see effects of compound interest on net worth?

Wouldn't the formula be the same for everyone: 1/[aggregate investment return]? E.g., if we use Burton Malkiel's average large cap equity return from the Bogleheads wiki, which is 12.3%, it's a bit over 8. If we use Bogle's expected 10 year bond return from 2017, which is 3.1%, we get around 32. htt...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximate Total Stock Market - 457b PDSIX and DISSX
Replies: 7
Views: 682

Re: Approximate Total Stock Market - 457b PDSIX and DISSX

Those expense ratios aren't doing her many favors! In her position, (without having run numbers) I'd lean toward 100% PDSIX and follow your plan to grab other desired allocation outside the plan. It's never fun forgoing mid- and small-cap, but it's also not fun paying high expense ratios and large c...
by targetconfusion
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wheel Alignment?
Replies: 18
Views: 1785

Re: Wheel Alignment?

Alignments are not in my vehicle's maintenance schedule, so I don't do them as maintenance items. Of course a shop that sells alignments will recommend alignments highly. I have done them following repairs to steering or suspension components, e.g., after replacing a tie rod end. I generally stick ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day Trading for a Living?
Replies: 44
Views: 4463

Day Trading for a Living?

This will come as difficult news to this community, but according to this paper, basically nobody makes money day trading. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101 (access requires signup but no payment) "We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013...
by targetconfusion
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lemonade Insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 2715

Re: Lemonade Insurance

I have both Geico (for auto) and Lemonade (renter's). Have made one claim with Geico (wife in accident) and two with Lemonade (both bicycle thefts) and got zero pushback. Lemonade's claim process, in particular, was streamlined and smartphone-based and all very millenialesque. But we really just tri...
by targetconfusion
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1355

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

You can use leveraged ETFs in an IRA (at Schwab at least) like 3x fund UPRO. That one has the advantage that we know it works. It has the same downside of futures, though, in that it teleports out of the IRA in a down market. I think I've convinced myself that a one-way valve between the taxable an...
by targetconfusion
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evaluating interest-only mortgage
Replies: 13
Views: 1787

Re: Evaluating interest-only mortgage

Agree with Charon. It sounds like you're weighing the important things and so the decision may turn on whether you value optimal financial behavior or the feeling (and spouse's feeling) of safety and comfort, which has different prices to different people. "Interest-only" rings risky to most of us w...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1355

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

Interesting idea. Have you done an analysis on the benefits? IOW, how much are the potential tax savings across N years for a given base amount? How does this compare to the risk of losing tax-free space? Not yet - just started wondering about it and hoped the wisdom of the forum would surface any ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1355

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

I don’t know about TDA and it has been a few years since I sat at either a IRA or margin desk. However that “bit higher” margin requirement tends to really kill the strategy in real terms. Not totally, but it puts a real gimp in it. So be forwarded. It's good advice - expecting leverage of all flav...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1355

Re: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

So you'd have funds basically un-invested until you were done teleporting? Interesting idea, though. Yes - at least to whatever margin the broker required. In theory you could maintain desired leverage, though, if you had been invested in something common, by replacing [investment X] with whatever ...
by targetconfusion
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?
Replies: 17
Views: 1355

Teleport into Roth IRA using offsetting leveraged positions?

Overall question : Is it possible to legally “teleport” funds into a Roth IRA by taking a long, leveraged position inside the rIRA and an offsetting short position outside of it? Here teleport means effectively increase rIRA balance without contributions, conversions, or rollovers and with a corres...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 31, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does one need a bank account anymore?
Replies: 60
Views: 5071

Re: Does one need a bank account anymore?

I've gotten by without a brick and mortar bank for over a decade. Schwab can handle (nearly) everything for me, and I can pull cash from any ATM with fees reimbursed. However, I have been unable to cash in my fully matured Series EE savings bonds. My local Schwab doesn't do it (Schwab brokerage is ...
by targetconfusion
Fri May 24, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Renters Insurance Brand/Company should I use?
Replies: 13
Views: 1627

Re: Which Renters Insurance Brand/Company should I use?

JD Leonard wrote: Thu May 23, 2019 11:46 pm Consider Lemonade if it's available where you live. Low cost. I use them. No claims thus far.
I've had two claims with Lemonade, both for stolen bicycles. Both were paid, and process couldn't have been easier.
by targetconfusion
Fri May 24, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 44
Views: 8283

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

You could fit an autoregressive model to past stock returns. If the AR coefficients are negative, for example an AR(3) model r(t) = e(t) + c1*r(t-1) + c2*r(t-2) + c3*r(t-3) where c1 = c2 = c3 = -0.05, you can simulate it to model a mean-reverting stock market. But if you believe mean reversion in t...
by targetconfusion
Thu May 23, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 226
Views: 43593

Re: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!

We have ~one month's expenses in checking-account cash. Big debits inevitably sent it negative a few times a year, which triggers an automatic margin loan from the linked (Schwab) brokerage account. Then, sell however much SCHB is needed to close the shortfall. Margin loan rates are high (8 or 9% no...
by targetconfusion
Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ--How Schwab Ate Wall Street
Replies: 82
Views: 11002

Re: Brokerage income source may surprise you

I'm among those who have found the Schwab experience to be generally excellent, but was turned off by discovering how much cash their robo-investor service (Schwab Intelligent Portfolio or something) forces you to hold. I don't hold significant cash in brokerage (or for that matter checking, instead...
by targetconfusion
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432577

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thanks, DonIce, for the detailed and earnest reply. I have a few counterquestions, which I always find myself needing to ask to hone my understanding of investment nuances. (hopefully there are other noobs of my ilk benefitting and I’m not wantonly squandering forum space). First, a short position t...
by targetconfusion
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432577

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Why everyone doesn't do it is probably due to the inherent risks in shorting. If the S&P were to drop 50% in a short period, the 3x short will lose MORE than 150% more than likely(due to compounded returns). You also have to pay to borrow and pay for margin(if require). Its a lot more complicated a...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Currently with Schwab private client--and decided to get out--but what to do
Replies: 16
Views: 6994

Re: Currently with Schwab private client--and decided to get out--but what to do

the "year to date change" in the index value reported by Schwab only shows the change in the value of the price index, while the total return number reported by Vanguard includes...you guessed it...dividends paid by the stocks in the index which are included in the total return. This seems so obvio...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432577

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

As for vol drag, I have decided to short SPXU and TMV rather than going long UPRO and TMF. This is a bit more advanced than simply going long, so I am not recommending anyone follow. This may be a stupid question, but what's the advantage of shorting short over going long? Is it simply a cheaper wa...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 98
Views: 10400

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

I am thinking about selling some stock ETFs after one of the strongest gains in the stock market since christmas 2018. I know that this slope that we're on cannot continue and has never historically continued at this rate, so a correction is inevitable. We're on pace for nearly a 60% return for the...
by targetconfusion
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 432577

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

As for vol drag, I have decided to short SPXU and TMV rather than going long UPRO and TMF. This is a bit more advanced than simply going long, so I am not recommending anyone follow. This may be a stupid question, but what's the advantage of shorting short over going long? Is it simply a cheaper wa...
by targetconfusion
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity, Schwab unseat Vanguard in new phase of fintech
Replies: 29
Views: 4000

Re: Fidelity, Schwab unseat Vanguard in new phase of fintech

It seems like airlines; whichever one just delayed you is always the worst. I ended up at Schwab sort of by accident after initially opening a checking account for the "no fees anywhere in the world period" debit card (more common now but more a a novelty back then), but as best I can tell from othe...