Search found 990 matches

by JackoC
Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 42
Views: 2243

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

Depends on how much one spends. If you cannot stop spending money somewhere just because you get a discount (cash back), you have problems we cannot help with. We rotate 3 cards for normal spending. Chase for quarterly, but only for categories we normally use ( not using PayPal just to get 3% more)...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 273
Views: 17638

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

1. You have made absolutely no compelling claim regarding returns in the extremely long time periods that are relevant, you’ve just stated a hypothesis. It’s your raw feeling painted as logic. 2. I think I agree with you regarding what one can "do" with firecalc, but I don't know of any serious adv...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Los Angeles to San Francisco Roadtrip
Replies: 19
Views: 1226

Re: Los Angeles to San Francisco Roadtrip

All, I have some business meetings in San Francisco early the week following Thanksgiving and see an opening to take the family (spouse plus kids 13, 10 and 7) on a vacation the week before. We are flying into L.A. around 11/22 and they will fly out of S.F. around 12/1. This is somewhat last minute...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 273
Views: 17638

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

In my opinion, what all that comes down to is the worry that the retirement period that any of us will face (the only one that matters) may be worse than any in the data set. Of course that''s possible, but I see no convincing current-valuations-based evidence presented for that view over such long...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 273
Views: 17638

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I think Thesaints might be trying to say this: the 4% SWR is based on a time period with a certain distribution of returns. If (and it’s a big if IMO) the future long term distribution of returns is lower (e.g., the whole distribution is shifted left), then the future worst case scenario gets worse...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to buy Car extended warranty ?
Replies: 55
Views: 2635

Re: When to buy Car extended warranty ?

Product warranties are just insurance in case the product fails. Like all insurance it only makes sense to protect you from a catastrophic loss. After all the insurance company wouldn’t offer it unless they could make a profit. A car repair is not considered a catastrophic loss and if I did conside...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling to Carmax: Fix then Quote vs. Quote then Fix
Replies: 23
Views: 1899

Re: Selling to Carmax: Fix then Quote vs. Quote then Fix

Yeah, when I sold my one car at Carmax they essentially just walked around the car and looked at it, offered me a quote on the spot. They didn't even drive it. I guess he saw me pull in so he assumed it ran just fine. That's also what's happened in most cases where I've asked new car dealers for tr...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 273
Views: 17638

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

You might find this link interesting and useful: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/withdrawal-rates/ Not only does it explain (albeit briefly) the back-testing methodologies employed in previous studies, it has a fantastic calculator that allows you to see both the safe withdrawal rate (which m...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 273
Views: 17638

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

" If history is any guide for the future , then withdrawal rates of 3% and 4% are extremely unlikely to exhaust any portfolio of stocks and bonds during any of the payout periods shown in Table 1. In those cases, portfolio success seems close to being assured." Throughout the period used for backte...
by JackoC
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using credit cards -international travel
Replies: 17
Views: 697

Re: Using credit cards -international travel

I have read when traveling internationally, it is best to have the merchant charge in the local currency rather than US Dollars I travel internationally quite a bit. This is reverse of my experience. I have CSR card. And charging in US$ rather than local currency saves me 5-10%. I check this every ...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Adult son off the rails [how to plan for his inheritance]
Replies: 12
Views: 2401

Re: Adult son off the rails

We are both in good health as far as we know and desperately hoping that son will change his lifestyle. But if something happened and he got the money tomorrow, we don't think it would be good for him or fair to his brothers. It all starts to get confusing when mixing money and morals and worry. Wh...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best month to take RMDs?
Replies: 86
Views: 4543

Re: Best month to take RMDs?

delete
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best month to take RMDs?
Replies: 86
Views: 4543

Re: Best month to take RMDs?

It's the same reason you would not generally take the next 5 yr's worth of RMD's this year, even if that wouldn't push you into a higher tax bracket this year. This is not allowed, even if you want to. RMDs must be taken each year. Of course you can always withdraw more than the RMD in any year, bu...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best month to take RMDs?
Replies: 86
Views: 4543

Re: Best month to take RMDs?

If you stick to any significant degree to efficient market theory* and assume even and constant taxation, the answer is late December: the longer you invest money the more it will return. And the longer that return is tax deferred the better off you will be. It's the same reason you would not genera...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How common is ACH fraud on checking accounts?
Replies: 55
Views: 10244

Re: How common is ACH fraud on checking accounts?

Since my account number and routing number is on every check I've written, and since no PIN is need for electronic (ACH) transactions, how common is unauthorized transactions on a checking account? I treat my main expense checking account like a wallet/purse--never put more in there than I can affo...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finances in NYC
Replies: 127
Views: 13464

Re: Finances in NYC

$122k in Manhattan does sound miserable. ... It’s fine to be 23, making $120k, sharing a garden level apartment with a roommate. It’s another thing entirely to want to live like a grown up. The thing that I couldn't understand fully was how hard it is to not spend a lot on food. Keep in mind, I ver...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard without Jack Bogle - Allan Roth
Replies: 28
Views: 4376

Re: Vanguard without Jack Bogle - Allan Roth

Will it change without the watchful eye of our mentor? https://www.financial-planning.com/opinion/vanguard-without-jack-bogle I would discount the reliability of opinions of Vanguard outsiders on how much influence Mr. Bogle still had on the organization. Jonathan Clements and Allan Roth are pretty...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finances in NYC
Replies: 127
Views: 13464

Re: Finances in NYC

You'll be miserable living in Manhattan on 122k. It's a lot more expensive than you may think. If saving is a priority, stay out of NYC unless you run a bank or hedge fund. Manhattan's median annual household income is $66,739, while Brooklyn's is a mere $44,850. By your logic there must be a vast ...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

Hopefully I have raised my kids well enough whereby they wouldn't want to waste a lot of money or their parents money on their weddings. There are many ways to have great weddings without spending ridiculous amounts of money. I am curious to know how much is ridiculous amount of money on a wedding,...
by JackoC
Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bronze vs Bronze HSA
Replies: 18
Views: 1322

Re: Bronze vs Bronze HSA

If I understand correctly a contribution of after tax money to the HSA lowers your MAGI by the contribution amount? Correct "If you have an HSA-qualified high-deductible health plan (HDHP), contributing to an HSA (health savings account) will also lower your MAGI." https://www.healthinsurance.org/f...
by JackoC
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11543

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

The other advantage of health insurance is that the expected value of buying insurance is positive. Even if you have a high-deductible plan so that the plan pays nothing for most of your medical coverage, the payment is at the in-network rate. (And HDHPs make this even better by giving you more tax...
by JackoC
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11543

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

Not only that, but under ACA while an insurance company 'must issue' policies without regard to pre-existing conditions, they don't have to cover that condition as soon as they write the policy, let alone retroactively. My carrier does not cover pre-existing conditions for 12 months. 'Pre-existing'...
by JackoC
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Option of Taking Inflation Adjusted Pension - Your Thoughts?
Replies: 6
Views: 551

Re: Option of Taking Inflation Adjusted Pension - Your Thoughts?

I have the option of taking an inflation adjusted pension. The plan pays out a reduced flat monthly amount for 10 years, then a higher than non-inflation payout starting in year 10 with inflation adjustments each year capped at 4%. I consider taking the inflation option as longevity insurance. By m...
by JackoC
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11543

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

Two, you are not going to be able to buy insurance when you need it. No insurance company is going to have a policy that covers you when you are already in the hospital or have an existing and immediate diagnosis before you had bought the insurance. I think the OP's plan is crazy, but didn't Obamac...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ok to go without health insurance?
Replies: 209
Views: 11543

Re: Ok to go without health insurance?

I don't quite understand the outrage. Surely, many folks understand the concept of self-insuring. We do it all the time for things we can afford - like cell phones, and everything else we reject the extended warranty. Large corporations self insure, for health and others, all the time, as well. Do ...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden liquidity risk with I-bonds
Replies: 43
Views: 4242

Re: Hidden liquidity risk with I-bonds

… after 5 years they act more like an inflation indexed savings account. Not really. The interest rate on a savings account tends to move up and down with market rates. But the fixed rate on an I bond stays the same for 30 years. While I don't think I'd use the term "liquidity risk", I agree with t...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4994

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

Anyway I think EMLC (or similar *local currency* EM govt bond funds) is interesting because, among easily tradeable assets, it combines fairly high expected return w/ potential for relatively low correlation with world equity markets in the long run. I agree that an EM local bond fund is likely to ...
by JackoC
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legacy/Inheritance
Replies: 61
Views: 6600

Re: Legacy/Inheritance

Fortunately, we set these trusts up over a decade ago and are not facing a large inheritance tax bill. You hadn't mentioned that in your original post. Have you already created irrevocable trusts for your children so that at least some of the $48 million is excluded from your estate? Gill Yes. We u...
by JackoC
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4994

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

But EM stock 'currency risk' is pretty different than that of EM local currency bonds. Agreed, in fact it's not even clear in what *direction* EM currency depreciation would affect EM stocks, because there are so many countervailing effects. Also, EM bonds are mostly in different countries from the...
by JackoC
Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think about Pakistani bond
Replies: 55
Views: 4994

Re: Help me think about Pakistani bond

I think emerging market local currency bonds are an investment class worth considering but only through a fund like EMLC. I wouldn't be interested in a single bond. +1 I personally own only Vanguard's active Emerging Markets Bond Fund Admiral Shares (VEGBX), but its holdings are mostly dollar-denom...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you claim financial independence with kids still in school
Replies: 80
Views: 6048

Re: Can you claim financial independence with kids still in school

Whenever , I feel that may be we can ease up a little bit and cut down on the work , my DW reminds me that our kids are a long way from being settled in life and she feels it is our responsibility till the end to make sure they are settled in life and we cannot relax till then (another 10-12 years ...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deed fraud (on your home)- anyone have insight?
Replies: 51
Views: 4153

Re: Deed fraud (on your home)- anyone have insight?

With due respect should not be a risk for homeowners. Yes, a fraudulent deed could be filed. But would not vest good title in the fraudster. Yes, fraudster could sell property to gullible buyer. The loss here would be the gullible buyer. Yes, the fraudster could get mortgage from gullible mortgage ...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deed fraud (on your home)- anyone have insight?
Replies: 51
Views: 4153

Re: Deed fraud (on your home)- anyone have insight?

With due respect should not be a risk for homeowners. Yes, a fraudulent deed could be filed. But would not vest good title in the fraudster. Yes, fraudster could sell property to gullible buyer. The loss here would be the gullible buyer. Yes, the fraudster could get mortgage from gullible mortgage ...
by JackoC
Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund
Replies: 36
Views: 7730

Re: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund

If you find yourself unable to retire at 70 because your 6-month emergency fund generated enough cash drag to create a 5-year deficiency in your retirement fund, send the bill to junior. An emergency fund is not magic, it's simple math. Cost of selling = transaction costs (around 0.1%) + adverse se...
by JackoC
Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11783

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Neither are a problem with the most plausible, and *practical* definition of market efficiency which is 'weak form EMH'. That just says that you can't predict future prices from past ones. Actually, the efficient market hypothesis says that all publicly known information is already priced in. This ...
by JackoC
Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I bought a STOLEN vehicle!!!
Replies: 106
Views: 15172

Re: I bought a STOLEN vehicle!!!

One can quickly check the VIN number with an OBD2 scanner and see if matches the VIN number on the chassis. It is possible to spoof the car software, but much harder to do than placing new stickers or welding a new vin plate. Let's be serious here and cut the OP a little slack. The OP checked the V...
by JackoC
Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11783

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Here is my question(s); 1. How could the market efficiently price the NASDAQ at $4963.03 on 3/24/00 and then at $1262.12 7/26/02? 2. Won't your answer to question #1 render the concept of an "efficient market" meaningless to the average investor in any practical sense? Neither are a problem with th...
by JackoC
Thu Oct 17, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 141
Views: 10295

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

It is worthwhile to look at market value of a house as a % of net worth because it reflects your exposure to that asset class, namely local real estate. And even if your equity is low, the housing market doesn't care about that; A 10% drop is against the value, not just your equity stake. Yes there...
by JackoC
Thu Oct 17, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 141
Views: 10295

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

It is worthwhile to look at market value of a house as a % of net worth because it reflects your exposure to that asset class, namely local real estate. And even if your equity is low, the housing market doesn't care about that; A 10% drop is against the value, not just your equity stake. Like all ...
by JackoC
Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 141
Views: 10295

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

It is worthwhile to look at market value of a house as a % of net worth because it reflects your exposure to that asset class, namely local real estate. And even if your equity is low, the housing market doesn't care about that; A 10% drop is against the value, not just your equity stake. Like all ...
by JackoC
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 141
Views: 10295

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

Agree it’s a poor metric and there is certainly no “should”. However, I think the metric makes a little more sense once a person is retired. Then it would reflect how much the retiree wants to allocate to a house. Funds allocated to your house will not generate cash flow that can otherwise be spent...
by JackoC
Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?
Replies: 22
Views: 2010

Re: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?

Rest assured, if our banking system should ever fail, you shouldn’t expect Vanguard, Schwab or Fidelity to be in any better shape. This logic comes up alot. Another common form is: if asset X or institution Y fails, then we have bigger problems. I consider this to be inverted logic. When there is w...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?
Replies: 22
Views: 2010

Re: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?

Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. The key words missing are "a direct obligation of the United States government". A creditor of the United States government gets paid first, everyone else stand in line. That is the difference between securities issued by the Unit...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on cellular annually?
Replies: 59
Views: 4113

Re: How much do you spend on cellular annually?

Biggest apples/oranges is comparing one person to a household with several. Also OP title is cellular but then expanded to internet. Cell: $300/person/yr, Cricket $25/mo per person, $1500 total, 5 people incl 3 people who don't live in the house Internet: $510/person/yr, $1020 total, divided just by...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?
Replies: 22
Views: 2010

Re: Is VUSXX Really Safer Than FDIC Insured Bank Account?

If you really don't trust a money market fund, then open an account at [Ally/Marcus/AmEx/online high yield savings account of your choice]. Rates are dropping, but the current 1.9% rate is better than the 0 you're getting now. Thank you. I'm well aware of online high yield savings accounts but not ...
by JackoC
Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund
Replies: 36
Views: 7730

Re: $2,467 is a minimum emergency fund

If you find yourself unable to pay your mortgage after losing your job and running through a 1 month emergency fund, send the bill to professors Gallagher and Sabat. I skimmed and searched the paper for key terms, didn't read it entirely. But the string 'unempl' only comes up once, mentioning at th...
by JackoC
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on clothing?
Replies: 38
Views: 2609

Re: How much do you spend on clothing?

$6,300/yr is the average for the last 5 years. That's theoretically two retired people, but actually some are items for grown kids. Eventually the 'what do you spend' threads tend to round out from what seem very low numbers to me to ones similar or higher than what we spend, on most categories and ...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: X Country Driving Trip across the US, solo
Replies: 25
Views: 2086

Re: X Country Driving Trip across the US, solo

I did it a couple of times in a matter of few days (62 hrs nonstop in VW Beetle once) when young. In recent years my wife and I have driven one way across twice and almost across and back once. First was with several sisters-in-law, we all flew to San Fran, drove big rented SUV back to NJ by way of ...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dropping Interest Rates on High-Yield Savings
Replies: 31
Views: 4584

Re: Dropping Interest Rates on High-Yield Savings

Synchrony has a 2.0% high yield savings if you want FDIC. Vanguard Prime MM is 1.99%, no FDIC, last I looked. For us a 2.0% savings account pays 1.25% after tax at the margin. VMFXX at 1.91% is 1.29% after tax (~80% direct US govt), VUSXX at 1.92% is 1.33% after tax (100% US govt), VMMXX pays gener...
by JackoC
Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Updated longevity calculator - from the actuaries
Replies: 21
Views: 2477

Re: Updated longevity calculator - from the actuaries

I agree it's not that directly meaningful for retirement financial planning to look at life *expectancy* 50% tile. That only directly allows you to judge if strategies are more or less likely than 50-50 to succeed. You need the whole distribution, in which case if it's accurate you don't really have...