Search found 98 matches

by are_cynic
Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not use Personal Capital
Replies: 101
Views: 18835

Re: Do not use Personal Capital

Personal capital also offers app password linking. Meaning that I went onto my brokerage and generated an application specific password that only works for personal capital to pull specific aggregate data in a read only fashion from my brokerage. It cannot be used to log into my brokerage account. I...
by are_cynic
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1081
Views: 149954

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Hit six figures in investments this week. Charlie Munger was right about this milestone. (Okay, with inflation, his comment no longer applies, but it’s nice to feel like he approves :happy )
by are_cynic
Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding market risk with nestegg
Replies: 23
Views: 3308

Re: Avoiding market risk with nestegg

Hypothetically, let's say investor X is turning 55 soon and they would like to avoid market risk entirely - can they do the following? 1. Turn 55 to use the Rule 55 which allows penalty free withdrawal. 2. Pay no income tax on any withdrawals as long as it's from Roth 401K 3. Transfer entire amount...
by are_cynic
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:50 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 7812

Re: Your opinion on debt?

The question is too open ended and will result in perpetual motion of the goal posts. Use debt if there is no other way to accomplish your goal. Everyone has their own goal, and the wisdom of that goal is a separate discussion. If you don’t have the capital you need, you must leverage. Debt is the o...
by are_cynic
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory
Replies: 74
Views: 6017

Re: Rich Dad / Poor Dad Investing Theory

The poor work for money, the rich make money work for them. Originally. Lately his philosophy seems to be that the government, either through ineptitude or malicious conspiracy, is driving the country into a death spiral of inflation, taxes, and socialism. So buy real estate as an inflation hedge/ta...
by are_cynic
Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help on Women and Investing
Replies: 90
Views: 6108

Re: Help on Women and Investing

I can think of several reasons why a woman may not want to learn finance or investing, especially from a man in their life. Often men just feel under appreciated and want to mansplain all their financial knowledge and spreadsheets. Why would a woman want to sit through that? Or when a man says “my w...
by are_cynic
Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often do you check your accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 3398

Re: How often do you check your accounts?

Only on two occasions. If 1) the market is tanking (usually brought to my attention by an uptick in angst on this forum), I might go in and increase my stock allocation, or if 2) I just had a great idea for a new accumulation/decumulation spreadsheet I’ll check account balances to get a starting poi...
by are_cynic
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule? Never touch principle?
Replies: 65
Views: 6228

Re: 4% rule? Never touch principle?

If I have a million dollars invested let’s say 60/40, and average 8% a year and only withdraw 4%, then I should never touch principal, even after 30 years, and even with inflation. Right? Yes you are exactly right. No. Consider a portfio that returned -8% fot the first 15 years and 24% for the next...
by are_cynic
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule? Never touch principle?
Replies: 65
Views: 6228

Re: 4% rule? Never touch principle?

If I have a million dollars invested let’s say 60/40, and average 8% a year and only withdraw 4%, then I should never touch principal, even after 30 years, and even with inflation. Right? I think that by never touch principal, you are saying that you want to maintain a minimum account balance of $1...
by are_cynic
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?
Replies: 69
Views: 6066

Re: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?

bhsince87 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:37 pm
...And somewhat related, if banks don't want to lend and/or consumers and business don't want to borrow, the government can "print" all it wants, but they can't create inflation.
I don’t understand why this would not create inflation? The money supply is increasing.
by are_cynic
Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turbotax imports: do you turn off 2 factor...
Replies: 11
Views: 672

Re: Turbotax imports: do you turn off 2 factor...

You’re looking for an app password. TurboTax can import from xyz.com using that website’s normal username and the app password you generate at xyz.com.
by are_cynic
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First “financial” thing you do in the morning
Replies: 80
Views: 6139

Re: First “financial” thing you do in the morning

I sleep until I wake up without an alarm clock. Needing an alarm clock is a sign of sleep deprivation. Sleep deprivation spuriously increases your tolerance for risk. So, by sleeping until I wake up on my own and preventing sleep deprivation, I prevent rash decisions resulting from a skewed percept...
by are_cynic
Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First “financial” thing you do in the morning
Replies: 80
Views: 6139

Re: First “financial” thing you do in the morning

I sleep until I wake up without an alarm clock. Needing an alarm clock is a sign of sleep deprivation. Sleep deprivation spuriously increases your tolerance for risk. So, by sleeping until I wake up on my own and preventing sleep deprivation, I prevent rash decisions resulting from a skewed percepti...
by are_cynic
Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance
Replies: 38
Views: 3805

Re: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance

1) what makes you a Bogleheads? I realized early on that the only sustainable advantage I have is patience, and thus long term investing is the natural result. This site has codified the optimal approach to long term investing. So I use the Boglehead approach. Using the Boglehead approach is not suf...
by are_cynic
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Does a Custom Variable Universal Life Insurance Policy Not Make Sense For Me?
Replies: 46
Views: 2775

Re: Why Does a Custom Variable Universal Life Insurance Policy Not Make Sense For Me?

You would have more spending money, net of everything, with a taxable account. After tax, you have access to $3.81M with the taxable account. There is $4.1M cash value in the insurance policy but you can only get 90% of it with loans, so $3.61M. If you’re planning to pull $3.61M out of the policy (t...
by are_cynic
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12329

Re: Does anyone own gold?

To the OP: you only avoid gold if you're imprudent. Such an individual is likely to be an investor that relies heavily on U.S.-centric market return data going back 40 or so years. It's what I call Myopic Portfolio Visualizer Syndrome (MPVS). The prudent thing to do, as demonstrated by investors li...
by are_cynic
Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?
Replies: 130
Views: 10511

Re: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?

I know a few fair weather Boglehead types, but no true believers. They pay lip service to the tenets of the philosophy but wouldn’t be able to defend it if pressed, or if circumstances were adverse. Everyone is a genius in a bull market. To borrow from Charlie Munger, they haven’t done the work requ...
by are_cynic
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

... annually reinvesting all the payouts from the SPIA into more SPIAs … Say you had $10K ... that you annuitized at age 80 … 10K turns into a very livable income of about 80K ... by the time you get to age hundred ... Any comments ... $1 collected at age 101 has a lower present value than $1 colle...
by are_cynic
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Origins of Greed and Fear: Morgan Housel
Replies: 5
Views: 911

Re: The Origins of Greed and Fear: Morgan Housel

It’s interesting that he traces greed and fear to a common origin, confidence. Too much confidence would correlate to what you are calling ego. Too little, I suppose, you buy nothing but gold and wait for the world to start burning. I think this dichotomy is too simplistic though. Inflation forces y...
by are_cynic
Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique this Real Estate investment idea
Replies: 31
Views: 2204

Re: Critique this Real Estate investment idea

This is a balanced look at doing something like you are suggesting. Keep in mind the author has a decade of experience. https://www.coachcarson.com/landlording-101/ One thing you are missing is taxes. $728k in real estate sold does not get taxed the same as $600k in S&P. You don’t just sell the hous...
by are_cynic
Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

I have no issue with safe assets financing planned consumption; I think this is wise. I intend to use some variant of LMP myself. This method is for hedging unpredictable tail risk, not matching foreseen expenses. All good insurance products are a jackpot style payout, as a result of risk pooling, ...
by are_cynic
Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

The choice presented by OP is between: (A) consuming the SPIA and reinvesting the portfolio, vs (B) consuming the portfolio and reinvesting the SPIA I would choose (A) consuming the SPIA and reinvesting the portfolio because: - It reduces the sequence of return risk on the portfolio. It's better th...
by are_cynic
Sun Feb 03, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

So there is the math, what am I missing? I think you are missing deaths.. I don’t think that long-lived individuals getting an outsized payout is an argument against longevity insurance; I think that is precisely the point. The OP was clear that this is for longevity tail risk- this isn’t going mak...
by are_cynic
Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

I went through the math... ...What you are essentially doing is using the annuity company's payout ratio as the rate of return every year through reinvested payouts. I don't see a downside, except that is rather late in life. However, as the thread title said, this is for longevity tail risk. I don...
by are_cynic
Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities
Replies: 64
Views: 4822

Re: Protect Against Longevity Tail Risk with Annuities

I went through the math and it seems to me like annuitizing (with a single premium immediate annuity) even a relatively small amount of money later in life, and annually reinvesting all the payouts from the SPIA into more SPIAs is a reasonable way to protect against longevity tail risk. Say you had...
by are_cynic
Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician Asset protection question
Replies: 9
Views: 1107

Re: Physician Asset protection question

Make sure you have enough occupation specific liability coverage, in addition to umbrella. While TN has a good Domestic Asset Protection Trust (DAPT) http://www.actec.org/assets/1/6/Shaftel-Comparison-of-the-Domestic-Asset-Protection-Trust-Statutes.pdf TN homestead exemption is quite low https://www...
by are_cynic
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Non-cyber financial security preparation in case of...
Replies: 15
Views: 1268

Re: Non-cyber financial security preparation in case of...

Guns, garden, and solar power.

If a major bank ever adopts blockchain as a way to thwart this threat, I’d consider moving there. Distributed ledgers and immutable proof of ownership are desirable characteristics to thwart a systemic hack.
by are_cynic
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse taking SS, then later taking half of other spouse amount?
Replies: 15
Views: 947

Re: Spouse taking SS, then later taking half of other spouse amount?

We did this exact thing, my wife took her SS benefit at 62, I am waiting until sometime between 68 and 70, depending on circumstances. By filing at age 62 instead of age 66yr/4mo (her full retirement age), she is receiving $125 a month less than if she had waited. When I file, she will get half of ...
by are_cynic
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Post-9/11 GI Bill for college questions
Replies: 29
Views: 1641

Re: Post-9/11 GI Bill for college questions

No, the Post 9/11 GI bill doesn’t have “market value”, you might say that it had opportunity cost, in that he can’t use it now that it’s transferred. I’m not sure about Montgomery, but Post 9/11 doesn’t cost anything to qualify for. I don’t see that you owe him anything, it’s his child. As mentioned...
by are_cynic
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand passive income
Replies: 19
Views: 1718

Re: Help me understand passive income

Very rough numbers, for order of magnitude comparisons... 1. Leveraged Real Estate. Assume 70% Loan to Value, so $300k gets you $1M in Real Estate. Rule of thumb, you want at least 1% of the value of the real estate in rent per month, so monthly cash flow is $1M * 1% = $10k. Rule of thumb, half your...
by are_cynic
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Money Savage" podcast with guest Rick Ferri
Replies: 19
Views: 2854

Re: "Money Savage" podcast with guest Rick Ferri

Podcasts are more efficient when time would otherwise be wasted, e.g. driving, housework, yardwork. You can also use an app like pocket casts which allows you to trim out the beginning of a podcast (where the small talk usually happens), skip silences between words, and speed up the podcast up to 3x...
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes...another question/comment about gold
Replies: 30
Views: 1463

Re: Yes...another question/comment about gold

That scenario certainly could play out. Or not. This is the narrative fallacy, which, paraphrasing, says that just because a story fits the facts, that doesn’t mean the story is true.

I’m not saying all that won’t happen; just don’t believe it’s inevitable.
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No Children, what will your legacy be?
Replies: 118
Views: 9533

Re: No Children, what will your legacy be?

Get cryogenicically frozen and use this

http://durfeelawgroup.com/cryonic-suspension-trust/

Become a philanthropist after a few centuries of medical advances and compounding.
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SS & passive income over age 73
Replies: 11
Views: 908

Re: SS & passive income over age 73

Capital gains don’t count against social security payments the way that a paycheck would, if that is what you are asking https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/will-i-get-penalized-working-while-collecting-social-security-retirement.html Above link does not apply to someone over SS retirement age,...
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SS & passive income over age 73
Replies: 11
Views: 908

Re: SS & passive income over age 73

Capital gains are counted as provisional income, and therefore will cause more of your social security to be taxed, which will indirectly lower your net payment. However, if the increased expenses are medical, more tax deductions are available if itemizing. It may even out. https://www.kiplinger.com...
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering future tax when analyzing portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 743

Re: Considering future tax when analyzing portfolio?

I don’t adjust the account itself, just the cash flows coming out. This allows for a more accurate picture of interactions between accounts (e.g. IRA and Social Security, taxable and pension).
by are_cynic
Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For young investors not yet seen a bear market or recession. How do you truly know your risk tolerance and plan for it?
Replies: 103
Views: 7013

Re: For young investors not yet seen a bear market or recession. How do you truly know your risk tolerance and plan for

For young investors not yet seen a bear market or recession. How do you truly know your risk tolerance and plan for it? ...However, reading the sheepdog thread highly improved my knowledge and some perspective of what it's like during a recession. As a result, I went back to my IPS to adjust my AA ...
by are_cynic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I Dont' Trust Myself [Expecting large windfall]
Replies: 16
Views: 1744

Re: I Dont' Trust Myself [Expecting large windfall]

If this is a serious enough concern, consider asking for the windfall in an spendthrift trust that will only distribute (for example) 3% per year. Have it an a 60/40 portfolio. Exceptions could be built in, such as higher distributions for health, emergency, or education purposes. The trust could ex...
by are_cynic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you ever feel overpaid?
Replies: 72
Views: 4939

Re: Do you ever feel overpaid?

I've always felt that if you can measure the impact you have on the bottom line of the company, you should be rewarded proportionally. In that position, my contributions, which I was rewarded for, were much more significant than others. While I was paid more, it wasn't that much more. This is the F...
by are_cynic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel
Replies: 28
Views: 2616

Re: Another frugality/contentment post from Morgan Housel

I like what he says here: The hard part is becoming satisfied with spending less. It’s not easy. It’s a behavioral trait, not analytical skill, and investing attracts more of the latter. Some are better at it than others, but virtually everyone is primed to at least assume they’ll be happier if the...
by are_cynic
Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think about swing trading?
Replies: 97
Views: 4158

Re: What do you think about swing trading?

You seem interested in learning the mechanics of this system; few here would know it (I’ve never heard of it). However, something better can and has been offered to you- wisdom, which I define as learning from other’s mistakes, as opposed to experience, which is learning from your own. Wisdom is fre...
by are_cynic
Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for this 30 year old?
Replies: 22
Views: 2566

Re: Advice for this 30 year old?

I stand corrected about the child tax credit. Nexus was a term I was familiar with for establishing a home of record in one state that endured throughout moves to other states, usually for the state tax benefit. Sounds like you are doing that.
by are_cynic
Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for this 30 year old?
Replies: 22
Views: 2566

Re: Advice for this 30 year old?

Why are you doing Roth TSP? Just asking what your reasons are. It can make sense. I'm guessing you're looking forward to a pension. If that alone will get you into the same tax bracket after you retire, the Roth TSP can make sense then. If not, Trad. TSP would defer taxes now and you could be in a ...
by are_cynic
Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching from Accumulating to Drawing
Replies: 24
Views: 2513

Re: Switching from Accumulating to Drawing

In June, I will retire from the workforce at age 65-1/2. I've run the numbers hundreds of times...no, thousands of times! The numbers never change (well, actually they get better as interest rates on T-Bills and MM accounts have improved). If the numbers never change... have you run Monte Carlo sim...
by are_cynic
Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why doesn't a lot of money feel like a lot of money?
Replies: 205
Views: 22660

Re: Why doesn't a lot of money feel like a lot of money?

Money makes problems disappear. As my income has increased I’ve used money to remove things in my life that made me unhappy- stress, drudgery, choice fatigue, recurring tasks, human interaction (except for the rare ones I initiate because I want to). In the absence of unhappiness, I am happy- long h...
by are_cynic
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for this 30 year old?
Replies: 22
Views: 2566

Re: Advice for this 30 year old?

Why are you doing Roth TSP? Just asking what your reasons are. It can make sense. I'm guessing you're looking forward to a pension. If that alone will get you into the same tax bracket after you retire, the Roth TSP can make sense then. If not, Trad. TSP would defer taxes now and you could be in a ...
by are_cynic
Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interested in opinions on our finances
Replies: 7
Views: 1071

Re: Interested in opinions on our finances

You are probably familiar with methods for extracting funds from qualified plans before age 59.5 without penalty, but if not- https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc558

You have funds with low growth potential in Roth IRA’s. Are these doubling as emergency funds?
by are_cynic
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 11
Views: 1033

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

I would be careful about using life insurance as LTCI. The issue is that the death benefit (or in this case, the LTC benefit) won’t keep up with inflation. You could jam paid up additions into the policy, reinvest the dividends, and get a term rider to avoid MEC, but it would still be an inefficient...
by are_cynic
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone see an inheritance not go as planned? I would like to hear stories from others of what can go wrong.
Replies: 177
Views: 17163

Re: Has anyone see an inheritance not go as planned? I would like to hear stories from others of what can go wrong.

... What do you suggest as alternatives??? -Give away some of the money while alive if you have plenty -Setup an irrevocable trust -Put the home in the kids names with legal stipulation that the surviving spouse can live in the house until their death -IRAs often allow contingent beneficiaries and/...
by are_cynic
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Spend Down Strategies Part 1
Replies: 5
Views: 1383

Re: Larry Swedroe: Spend Down Strategies Part 1

Thanks for posting this. One off topic question from the article, sorry- on page 4 it says... “Steve and Jennifer had high taxable income during their working years. A year ago at age 65, they both retired as they became eligible for Medicare. Jennifer is now receiving Social Security spousal benefi...