Search found 130 matches

by Tellurius
Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do divestment campaigns increase returns for future investors on those assets?
Replies: 5
Views: 437

Do divestment campaigns increase returns for future investors on those assets?

Is there any research on the effect of divestment campaigns? Common sense would be that by reducing the available pool of investors, bond yields would be higher for the divested companies and new equity would be issued at a lower price. Is there something I am missing? Are there any ETFs which track...
by Tellurius
Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11182

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

The bubble keeps floating to the top. . .very confusing. I predict the future when the geese fly south each fall - cold is ahead. When the unemployed numbers go up the economy goes down. When the M1 money supply floods the world, where does it go? Stock market and real estate. How long can it last?...
by Tellurius
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?
Replies: 81
Views: 8538

Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?

One of the greatest investing stories (adventures?) of our time was started by him. So what happened? Why is he gone?

Veni vidi vici?
by Tellurius
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11182

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

Interesting about the rises in the prices of used cars and boats... I have no idea how that happened after a pandemic. Or was it illusionary? a drop and then a rise?
by Tellurius
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11182

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

From the article: "In the process, everyday traders have grabbed a greater share of market liquidity. They now make up 20 per cent of US equity trades, double the total last year, according to internal estimates at Citadel Securities, the US’s biggest market maker. That share approaches 25 per ...
by Tellurius
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?
Replies: 16
Views: 1257

Re: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?

I need to find a link to the data again, but I believe it's in the Fed Z.1 Financial Accounts of the US reports/data, but the data show U.S. investors invest more (as a percentage of wealth) in ex-US equities than non-US investors invest in US equities. If total non-US wealth is higher, even with a...
by Tellurius
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11182

Are we NOW in a bubble?

I often heard that this didn't compare to 1999 because there wasn't much retail investor or "not smart money" activity. This article claims that it's arrived From the article: "In the process, everyday traders have grabbed a greater share of market liquidity. They now make up 20 per c...
by Tellurius
Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?
Replies: 16
Views: 1257

To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?

To what extent is the divergence between European and US stock markets in the last 30 years due to structural factors, such as Americans having their retirement savings in the stock market and the ease of investing from abroad? It was difficult to hold US stock for a large percentage of the world po...
by Tellurius
Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Optimization: A General Framework for Portfolio Choice
Replies: 19
Views: 2830

Re: Portfolio Optimization: A General Framework for Portfolio Choice

Can someone edit the original chart with all choices leading to Three-fund portfolio? “Everyone should own a three-fund portfolio. The science should not stand in the way of this." Is that it? Nah, I’m joking. Also, I’m not American, and I like global bonds. So I’d prefer a four-fund one, alon...
by Tellurius
Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Optimization: A General Framework for Portfolio Choice
Replies: 19
Views: 2830

Re: Portfolio Optimization: A General Framework for Portfolio Choice

Can someone edit the original chart with all choices leading to Three-fund portfolio?
by Tellurius
Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to figure out the advantages of holding wealth in a reserve currency
Replies: 11
Views: 985

Re: Trying to figure out the advantages of holding wealth in a reserve currency

What you are talking about is a long-term bet that GBP will lose value against USD/EUR.

GBP is the third most held currency in the world. Talk of its demise seems to be overrated.
by Tellurius
Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who still invests in load funds?
Replies: 13
Views: 1066

Who still invests in load funds?

I am just curious about the profile of people who invest in front-load or back-load funds.

They are still out there.
by Tellurius
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: UK --> Germany [EU Expat]
Replies: 5
Views: 415

Re: UK --> Germany [EU Expat]

Degiro is a low cost European broker that may be worth looking into

I think the German/UK tax questions bear more looking into.

Καλή επιτυχία (Best of luck)!
by Tellurius
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1821

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Well, of 23 national stock markets included in the Dimson & Marsh study ( Triumph of the Optimists and subsequent Credit Suisse Global Returns yearbooks, two of them went to zero. (And in fact, very foolishly, I only realized recently that they simply omit the data for 1923 from their German ti...
by Tellurius
Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Euro savings acct ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1084

Re: Euro savings acct ?

When interest rates and bond yields are below 0%, you can’t get expect bank accounts to yield 1.5%.

The previous poster is wrong, it has nothing to do with negativity or protectionism. It’s a matter of math (where would banks hold their reserves?)
by Tellurius
Sun May 24, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $250,000 Debt, High-Income Potential, beginner starting from ZERO
Replies: 58
Views: 8245

Re: $250,000 Debt, High-Income Potential, beginner starting from ZERO

The Intelligent Investor is a trap.

Written for a different time, in different circumstances (it was written in 1949). It makes you think you can actually pick some stocks.

Best to avoid. I fell into the trap for a few years, before I discovered Bogleheads.
by Tellurius
Sat May 09, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Greece] First-time investor
Replies: 12
Views: 789

Re: [Greece] First-time investor

Κύριε Κασιο, τι θα ηθελες να μαθεις; (Casio, what would you like to know?) Dear Tellurius, thank you for your response. I don't know if it is appropriate for us to write in Greek (or generally our native language) in this forum, so I am going to respond in English for the time being. I am basically...
by Tellurius
Sat May 09, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Greece] First-time investor
Replies: 12
Views: 789

Re: [Greece] First-time investor

Tellurius, I appreciate your help. Could you clarify some points for me. First, when would be the right time to start adding bonds in my asset allocation? As for your remark on Emerging Markets, what percentage of my portfolio should they occupy if I were to include them separately? I checked on De...
by Tellurius
Sat May 09, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: COVID-19 has revealed the stark deficiencies in long-term care facilities regardless of ratings.
Replies: 80
Views: 5616

Re: COVID-19 has revealed the stark deficiencies in long-term care facilities regardless of ratings.

Really the only way out of the situation of being set aside in senescence is extraordinary fortune. The majority of us will just have to take our chances and hope for the best, and then take the ride. It would be wise to respect our children, and to be kind to those around us. Historically, useless...
by Tellurius
Sat May 09, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Greece] First-time investor
Replies: 12
Views: 789

Re: [Greece] First-time investor

Κύριε Κασιο, τι θα ηθελες να μαθεις; (Casio, what would you like to know?) Dear Tellurius, thank you for your response. I don't know if it is appropriate for us to write in Greek (or generally our native language) in this forum, so I am going to respond in English for the time being. I am basically...
by Tellurius
Fri May 08, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Greece] First-time investor
Replies: 12
Views: 789

Re: [Greece] First-time investor

Κύριε Κασιο, τι θα ηθελες να μαθεις; (Casio, what would you like to know?)
by Tellurius
Thu May 07, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does keeping ice packs in fridge save energy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2919

Re: Does keeping ice packs in fridge save energy?

You will refreeze them later, no? That will take more energy in total (unfreeze then refreeze) than just leaving them frozen.
by Tellurius
Thu May 07, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

I am looking for an in-depth analysis of the P/E, PEG P/B ratio's of the Total US Stock Market VS International VS Emerging Markets over the past 50 years. Do you guys know where I can find such an analysis? I completely agree with the thesis that the US Stock Market is overvalued when directly com...
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

Bob could only have been an American. Europeans who invested in the 2000 market peak are still below the high water mark in some countries. Is that the price index or the accumulation index? The price index is worthless. It’s really difficult to find historical data for the accumulation index. I’ll...
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

Dominant countries, economies and stock markets do not last forever. And they're also not usually aware of when their star is fading. From Violet Bonham Carter (in Winston Churchill: An Intimate Portrait ), describing the invulnerability of the British Empire at the start of the 20th century: “The ...
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

typical.investor wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 11:22 am
Tellurius wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 11:14 am Aren’t buybacks illegal in most countries?
I don’t believe so. Less popular perhaps. Anyway, here is JPMorgan‘s look at it

https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/stock-buybacks
Thanks!
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Aren’t buybacks illegal in most countries?
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

Bob could only have been an American. Europeans who invested in the 2000 market peak are still below the high water mark in some countries. Is that the price index or the accumulation index? The price index is worthless. It’s really difficult to find historical data for the accumulation index. I’ll...
by Tellurius
Wed May 06, 2020 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

I just binge-watched the WWII in HD Colour on Netflix, and without sounding too political here, it's clear to me that without America's leadership and its citizens' will to fight for fundamental Western values, the world wouldn't have almost 200 sovereign states as of today. Instead, there would be...
by Tellurius
Tue May 05, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

Hi, I'm a EU newbie investor with about $100k( a good part are in Euro) available in cash at the moment. Considering the interest bank rates for euro are negative right now I am trying to understand if it would be a good move to place these savings into a bonds ETF like AGGH ( I haven't yet researc...
by Tellurius
Tue May 05, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

I am in my early 30s and considering all-world stock etfs (for the long term) for a high percentage of my portfolio but I am reluctant to put all this money in the stocks today. (considering the recent swings in the market and other market data: high unemployment, GDPs going down, etc...). Hi, and ...
by Tellurius
Mon May 04, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is your all time favorite investor and why?
Replies: 52
Views: 2945

Re: Who is your all time favorite investor and why?

Benjamin Graham. He was the future, once.

(Quote by David Cameron about Tony Blair)
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?
Replies: 61
Views: 4292

Re: How long is this profit sustainable as a New Trader?

Yes. You will make 8% every month. Which works out to ~151% per year. In a decade, you will have turned your $9211.85 into $95 million, and within 2 decades into $1 trillion. 8% a month is not 151% per yr. It is 96%. I will not be doing 8% per month much longer as I won't be risking any more than 1...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 13009

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

Where did the view arise that a stable company with good financials, slow yet unspectacular growth and a low p/e, is riskier than a company with a higher p/e, worse financials and the promise or the prior history of high growth? When did investors start buying stocks? Benjamin Graham specifically s...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

I spent 6 years running a manufacturing operation in Europe. I had also run similar operations in the US, so I could make a reasonable comparison. It was a great living experience for me and my family, and It was one of the most challenging and fascinating work experiences I have ever encountered. ...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

Name a US based company who does no international business. I'm waiting. That's why Bogle was right. If you take one step back: why do so many American businesses have the capital for overseas expansion? Why do so many foreigners buy American products? Furthermore, why do so many American businesse...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

I hesitate to even chime in on this thread as they usually devolve into a mess. But I'd just point out that the US does have certain structural advantages which give businesses based here and the country as a whole some wind at their backs. Things like: 1. Arable land 2. Access to fresh water 3. Hi...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

I hesitate to even chime in on this thread as they usually devolve into a mess. But I'd just point out that the US does have certain structural advantages which give businesses based here and the country as a whole some wind at their backs. Things like: 1. Arable land 2. Access to fresh water 3. Hi...
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 13009

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

Where did the view arise that a stable company with good financials, slow yet unspectacular growth and a low p/e, is riskier than a company with a higher p/e, worse financials and the promise or the prior history of high growth?
by Tellurius
Sun May 03, 2020 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16599

Re: American exceptionalism

Bogle believed in American exceptionalism--that our markets and our economy are exceptional and likely to outperform INTL regardless of INTL's more attractive valuations as measured by PE, PB, etc.. I have always believed that valuations do matter and have agreed with Larry, Arnott, and Bernstein o...
by Tellurius
Sat May 02, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?
Replies: 24
Views: 1387

Re: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?

The previous poster to OP’s last comment explained that if you don’t get taxed on dividends received within the accumulating ETF, then that is best! because they get reinvested at the full rate (minus US tax, as far as I understand)
by Tellurius
Sat May 02, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification about value and growth stocks
Replies: 9
Views: 664

Re: Clarification about value and growth stocks

Keep in mind that all categorizations are arbitrary. For example, it is common to talk about "developed markets" and "emerging markets," but no two authorities agree exactly on a definition or a list, and Wikipedia has a table according to eight authorities that shows that MSCI,...
by Tellurius
Sat May 02, 2020 5:24 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?
Replies: 24
Views: 1387

Re: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?

luigi.ruggieri wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 6:58 am and for the dividends I would pay 26% capital gain taxes to Italy and 20% more to USA
You mean, 26% dividend tax?

Have you looked at the Investing from
the EU page on the Wiki?

Ciao!
by Tellurius
Sat May 02, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?
Replies: 24
Views: 1387

Re: Trading from Italy, is it more profitable to invest in a distributing (VUSA) or an accumulating (VUUA) ETF?

The critical question is: are accumulating ETF’s dividends (which are internal) taxed? If they are not, like in some other European countries, then it’s much better to have Accumulating ETFs? A previous poster mentioned trading costs for Accumulating ETFs. That’s not really a factor if you use a low...
by Tellurius
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarification about value and growth stocks
Replies: 9
Views: 664

Clarification about value and growth stocks

When the researchers or the index companies (and those may be/probably are different things) created the concepts of value and growth stocks, do they encompass the entire stock market? Ie is there a median, above which you have the first “growth stock” and below that the first “value stock”? Or are ...
by Tellurius
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 13009

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

From reading on this forum, some advocates presented it as some kind of “basic truth”. For me, when hearing about the effect that deregulation of commissions had in the 70s, when the standard 3% commission was abolished, did the trick. Suddenly, small stocks were not so expensive to trade and the pe...
by Tellurius
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you expect interest rates to go up during your lifetime?
Replies: 4
Views: 566

Do you expect interest rates to go up during your lifetime?

Have we reached a permanently low plateau or downslope of interest rates? Given that the drivers of low interest rates (low GDP growth, low population growth etc, increased amounts of national income going to capital and not to labour) are strong in all Developed Markets, do you ever expect interest...
by Tellurius
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: No need to invest for Europeans?
Replies: 119
Views: 6695

Re: No need to invest for Europeans?

FWIW, here is what I plan on doing: I will invest about 5x the minimum desired yearly living expenses in retirement early on. This amount will have about 30-40 years to compound interest, so it could easily end up being enough to cover 20 years or more of living expenses in retirement. If I won´t n...