Search found 63 matches

by AHTFY
Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 12
Views: 1854

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

I was able to find the article below. It appears that over 1991-2017 the time frame of the chart below, Dalio's CAGR was about 12%, per the author. The S&P 500 was about 10.5% for that same time period, I believe https://www.gurufocus.com/news/607625/ray-dalio-lots-of-character-less-than-inspiring-...
by AHTFY
Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS CP2000 notice -- hard lesson (missing cost basis)
Replies: 35
Views: 2908

Re: IRS CP2000 notice -- hard lesson (missing cost basis)

Wait, the IRS tried to tax the entire $50k as a gain? They assumed the cost basis was zero?
by AHTFY
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Schwab (SCHW) Eliminating Commissions for Stocks, ETFs and Options Listed on U.S. or Canadian Exchanges
Replies: 106
Views: 9473

Re: Charles Schwab (SCHW) Eliminating Commissions for Stocks, ETFs and Options Listed on U.S. or Canadian Exchanges

On another note, frankly, as a passive investor I personally would prefer low commissions and sweep funds like most brokers had a few years ago vs. the current situation of zero commissions. If you do the math, the lost interest often outweighs commissions over a year. I have $14 sitting in cash in...
by AHTFY
Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TD Ameritrade Introduces $0 Commissions for Online Stock, ETF and Option Trades
Replies: 49
Views: 5100

Re: TD Ameritrade Introduces $0 Commissions for Online Stock, ETF and Option Trades

Is there any reason to sell my SPTM, SPDW, and SPEM to buy VT? I don't think so. I went to Portfolio Visualizer and compared VTI to SPTM going back to July 2001 (origin of VTI). VTI returned .45% more per year (CAGR) than SPTM which resulted in an extra $274,455 on a million dollar portfolio! That ...
by AHTFY
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I pulled out... How do I get back in?
Replies: 100
Views: 12944

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

1) Admit you don't know where the stock market is going.
2) Decide what asset allocation you want.
3) Invest.
by AHTFY
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TD Ameritrade Introduces $0 Commissions for Online Stock, ETF and Option Trades
Replies: 49
Views: 5100

Re: TD Ameritrade Introduces $0 Commissions for Online Stock, ETF and Option Trades

Awesome! I have my HSA investment account at TD Ameritrade and was buying SPTM, SPDW, and SPEM in the proper ratios to mimic Total World without have to pay commission. Now I can just buy VT.

Is there any reason to sell my SPTM, SPDW, and SPEM to buy VT? I don't think so.
by AHTFY
Sun Sep 29, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?
Replies: 98
Views: 5619

Re: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?

After this lengthy discussion, which I have been reading with great interest (I also skimmed the shared articles/essays/studies), the questions relevant to me and I assume to others are: 1) How should these longer-term data sets effect my asset allocation? 2) Should this data change my expected real...
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weighted vs Arithmetic Index's
Replies: 6
Views: 541

Re: Weighted vs Arithmetic Index's

Add international if possible. Since international is about 45% of the world market cap, if you own it in that proportion you'll be cutting your exposure to those 5 stocks nearly in half. In Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTWAX), those top 5 stocks are just 6.14% of the portfo...
by AHTFY
Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures
Replies: 58
Views: 4983

Re: A gentle alternative to HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure with 2-Year Treasury Futures

Can you test this with pre-1980 data (real or synthetic)? This model is long treasuries in a period with falling rates. How would it perform with rising interest rates?
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: N.Y. Fed Takes $75 Billion of Securities, Treasuries in Repo Op
Replies: 2
Views: 650

Re: N.Y. Fed Takes $75 Billion of Securities, Treasuries in Repo Op

To quote the Simpsons:
Short answer, "yes" with an "if." Long answer, "no" with a "but."
by AHTFY
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Achieve Growth/Small-Cap Tilt in Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 465

Re: How to Achieve Growth/Small-Cap Tilt in Portfolio

First of all, why would you want to tilt toward growth and small caps? Second, if you will have just "a slight tilt," your expected returns won't vary much from just holding the total stock market and it probably isn't worth the hassle. The Fama-French factors for one, and generally seems like grow...
by AHTFY
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Achieve Growth/Small-Cap Tilt in Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 465

Re: How to Achieve Growth/Small-Cap Tilt in Portfolio

First of all, why would you want to tilt toward growth and small caps?
Second, if you will have just "a slight tilt," your expected returns won't vary much from just holding the total stock market and it probably isn't worth the hassle.
by AHTFY
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing
Replies: 48
Views: 1578

Re: How do You Evaluate Ability and Willingness to Take Risks Associated with Factor Investing

All this talk of factor investing and being prepared to possible long periods of underperformance reminds me of a famous quote:

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
by AHTFY
Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-product companies & TSM
Replies: 2
Views: 255

Re: Multi-product companies & TSM

So the question is whether large companies are more diverse than they were in the past, with this increased diversification offsetting the increased concentration we are seeing in the economy. Great question. In terms of products, you might be correct. In terms of management, however, a company can ...
by AHTFY
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28951

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

Of course, 2000 is a great year to start SCV investing. If you use DFA US Small Cap Value I (DFSVX) and go back to 1994, which is as far back as you can go, you'll see that DFSVX does better nominally than SPY but at significantly more risk. 2000 is the starting date of SLYV. Above I included a com...
by AHTFY
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28951

Re: Small Cap Value Heads Rejoice!

I hear you. I initially felt the same. Then I looked at in portfolio visualiser: a portfolio with 25% in SLYV (SCV) and the other 75% in VTSMX (total market) has had a 0.99 correlation with the US market. Much more than I thought. In factor regression VTSMX only has significant exposure to the mark...
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Low fee Private Equity / Alternative Investing Approach
Replies: 13
Views: 1466

Re: Low fee Private Equity / Alternative Investing Approach

I was searching for an entry into real estate private equity and came upon similar platforms as you - Crowdstreet, Fundrise, etc. Then you hear about RealtyShares going under and it makes you think twice. Fortunately, I stumbled upon Ian Ippolito’s The Real Estate Crowdfunding Review where he compa...
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's in a name?
Replies: 8
Views: 797

Re: What's in a name?

My first thought was Jeeves.
My second thought was Yoga, which I thought of before I see you thought of it too.
Other quick suggestions I like: Palantir, Olorin.
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28951

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

The fact is SCV is 2% of the market and we have people saying in order to reduce fat tails risk you need to own 100% of your equity in that. Okay, for someone whose lifestyle will not be impacted by decline in value of their entire equity investments, that may make sense, but not for the rest. This...
by AHTFY
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not market timing is hard
Replies: 29
Views: 2692

Re: Not market timing is hard

"There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily—or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play." ~ Reminiscen...
by AHTFY
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Tax-Efficient Allocation" Fallacy?
Replies: 14
Views: 1587

Re: "Tax-Efficient Allocation" Fallacy?

I'm in this very situation right now. After being 100% stocks for quite a while, I decided to add some bonds. (Not trying to time the market, but it makes sense with age and more savings.) I want to bring up one other factor: rebalancing. If I put my bonds in my taxable account alongside some stocks...
by AHTFY
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to go "borrow" fast upload speed
Replies: 10
Views: 762

Re: Where to go "borrow" fast upload speed

mtwhmemn wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:22 am
Hadn't thought of the library. Thanks. As for other comments, quick download is pretty easy to find. I need quick upload.
At my local Starbucks, I usually get about 36MBit/sec (4.5MBytes/sec) download and 10MBit/sec (1.25MBytes/sec) upload, unless the place is crowded, then it's lower.
by AHTFY
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to go "borrow" fast upload speed
Replies: 10
Views: 762

Re: Where to go "borrow" fast upload speed

I find that Starbucks and the library generally have good speeds but they may vary between locations and how many others are using the wifi at the same time. If you need a steady guaranteed minimum speed, I wouldn't rely on them. But if you are just downloading or uploading large files, I find they ...
by AHTFY
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 101
Views: 15604

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

With 27.9% of their assets in cash, that's a lot of potential future demand for stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.

In reality, though, we'd want to know how this compares to the past. What was this number circa 2006 before the bubble burst?
by AHTFY
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3323

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

rascott wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:18 pm
That's not accurate, if you are rebalancing.
The Simba spreadsheet does annual rebalancing.
by AHTFY
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3323

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

What mean are you referring to? Same mean return as TSM? A mean return commensurate with the increased risk of SV relative to TSM? In an efficient market we should expect all risky assets to have about the same risk adjusted returns. Higher risk should imply higher expected return. Dave Yes, a risk...
by AHTFY
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3323

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

Based on the Simba backtest spreadsheet (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simba's_backtesting_spreadsheet), since 1927, small cap value (SCV) outperforms the total stock market (TSM) 12.05% to 9.69%. However, it's standard deviation is 26.19% vs. 19.87%. In the end, the Sharpe ratio of SCV is 0.44 v...
by AHTFY
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along
Replies: 33
Views: 3323

Re: US Small Value Has Been Hiding In Plain Sight All Along

Based on the Simba backtest spreadsheet (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simba's_backtesting_spreadsheet), since 1927, small cap value (SCV) outperforms the total stock market (TSM) 12.05% to 9.69%. However, it's standard deviation is 26.19% vs. 19.87%. In the end, the Sharpe ratio of SCV is 0.44 vs...
by AHTFY
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sedona and ________ trip In February with 3 and 5 year old
Replies: 12
Views: 888

Re: Sedona and ________ trip In February with 3 and 5 year old

From Sedona, you might consider going to Jerome (old mining town), Flagstaff (Lowell Observatory) or Clarkdale (Verde Canyon Railroad). Prescott often has western-themed activities, especially around the courthouse/Whiskey Row area. Agree with Desert Diva. You might also consider Walnut Canyon just...
by AHTFY
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent and invest the difference?
Replies: 15
Views: 963

Re: Rent and invest the difference?

The general "rule" always was that you should rent if you plan in living in the house for less than 5 years and own if it will be more than 10 years. In between 5 and 10 years could go either way. As many mentioned, it depends greatly on your individual situation. In your location, how do rents comp...
by AHTFY
Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book or documentary recommendations on American economic dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 1677

Re: Book or documentary recommendations on American economic dominance

I second the recommendation of John Steele Gordon's Empire of Wealth.
by AHTFY
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 84
Views: 6343

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

rascott wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:38 pm
Well a 1% difference over an investors lifetime is a boat load of money.
That 1% difference (really 0.9%), if it persists, is accompanied by higher risk (volatility in returns). The risk-adjusted excess return is 0.5%.
by AHTFY
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 84
Views: 6343

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

Aren't the mid-cap and small-cap indexes market weighted? If so and you do the 33-33-33 allocation, you'll end up owning much more of the largest mid-cap stock than the smallest large-cap stock even though their capitalization is nearly the same and the same with the largest small-cap stock vs. the ...
by AHTFY
Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero - Fees are coming down on seven ETFs
Replies: 97
Views: 9737

Re: Vanguard Ups the Ante in an ETF Race to Zero Fees are coming down on seven ETFs, with combined assets of more t

BlueCable wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:25 pm
For funds where the ETF has a lower cost, is there any reason for me to buy the mutual fund rather than the ETF?
I was going to ask the same thing. Also, would this answer vary depending on whether it's a taxable vs non-taxable account?
by AHTFY
Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5807

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

pdavi21 wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:47 pm
Why is Buffett still considered relevant? He has lost to index investing since 2004.
And how much of his returns to begin with came from "beating the market" rather than operational performance of the companies Berkshire owns?
by AHTFY
Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5807

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

How long has Buffett had significant amounts of cash at Berkshire? Wouldn't he have done much better putting that in an broad stock market ETF?
by AHTFY
Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Jack Bogle Helped Keep Inflation Low
Replies: 10
Views: 1678

Re: NYT: Jack Bogle Helped Keep Inflation Low

I bet that expense ratios on mutual funds are not included in the CPI or GDP deflator.
by AHTFY
Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [H&R Block] and TurboTax Handle 1099MISC Differently
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: HRB and TurboTax Handle 1099MISC Differently

It's hard to say without knowing more, but two things come to mind. 1) You'll have to pay the self-employment tax on that income (15.3%) plus whatever your marginal income tax rate is. If your marginal tax rate is 24%, your total tax on that $1,500 would be about $600. 2) It's possible this extra in...
by AHTFY
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Leverage
Replies: 184
Views: 15471

Re: On Leverage

:arrow: So with 2x leverage and 5% interest rate, the distribution of possible outcomes changed from -10% / +10% into -25% / +15% Expected Return increased from 8.00% to 11.00% (2x minus 5% that you have to pay in interest.) So to simplify, your risk-adjusted return (your return above the risk-free...
by AHTFY
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri on the Rational Reminder Podcast
Replies: 17
Views: 2546

Re: Rick Ferri on the Rational Reminder Podcast

Thanks for letting us know about this.

Has anyone been listening to this podcast? Is it worthwhile?
by AHTFY
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 22442

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) available February 7

The .03% difference is annual, and thus compounded over time. The 0.1% drift is a one-time thing, and not something that an investor can control --- unless you think you have some sort of market timing edge. It's true that 0.03% isn't much on a relative basis, and if the portfolio size is small, re...
by AHTFY
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: anyone experiencing problems with Vanguard Admiral shares?
Replies: 12
Views: 1466

Re: anyone experiencing problem with Vanguard Admiral shares?

profet wrote:
Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:24 pm
I had to call in. Once I called they converted all shares over to Admiral in my solo 401k. There were no minimums. Can't be done online... yet.
Awesome! I'll have to call in (tomorrow or next week) and convert my shares.
by AHTFY
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which company has the best solo 401k?
Replies: 8
Views: 704

Re: Which company has the best solo 401k?

For independent contractor I can pick my own solo 401k. Which company is the best? I want one with low fees that allows rollovers, and a plan that allows for Mega Backdoor Roth conversions outside of the company. Thank you in advance! I have a solo/individual 401(k) [of the Roth variety] at Vanguar...
by AHTFY
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) in 401(k)?
Replies: 2
Views: 1214

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) in 401(k)?

That is what happened for the other Funds for which the Investor class was eliminated last year. It will likely just take a little bit of time for them to implement. Check out this post. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=264551 Cheers Thanks. I am sticking with VTWSX in expectation t...
by AHTFY
Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) in 401(k)?
Replies: 2
Views: 1214

Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) in 401(k)?

Now that VTWAX is available, I see on the Vanguard website the option to convert my VTWSX within my Vanguard IRA to VTWAX but I don't have the same option in my Vanguard 401(k). Does anyone know if and when VTWAX will be available within a Vanguard 401(k) account.

Thanks!
by AHTFY
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 4100

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

You can also add 10-20% REITS, tilt towards small cap value and debate TIPS vs iBonds on the bond side. There's lots more if you want to keep going down that rabbit hole...or invest in 2 or 3 index funds like you're doing and call it a day. Exactly! But if you own your house, you can probably skip ...
by AHTFY
Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Tech budget to fix issues
Replies: 26
Views: 1789

Re: Vanguard Tech budget to fix issues

Vanguard's website is nothing special. But you know what it does? It allows me to see my balances, my positions, make trades, and transfer funds between accounts without much of a hassle. It also allows me to look at information (returns, fees, allocation) about the funds I own or am interested in p...
by AHTFY
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lively HSA is now Fee Free
Replies: 15
Views: 1426

Re: Lively HSA is now Fee Free

I transferred my HSA to Lively just weeks before Fidelity's announcement. I'm leaving my money there as it's already invested like I want it. If I contribute to my HSA this year (only after I first contribute to my Roth IRA and Roth 401k but before my traditional 401k), then I'll open a new account ...
by AHTFY
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4764

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

Very simple answer: Because you'll be increasing your risk by a greater degree than your potential return. Note: The increase in risk comes from two areas: 1) You are less diversified both in terms of owning fewer stocks and different types of stocks. 2) Small caps are [supposedly] more risky than ...