Search found 63 matches

by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101028

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX...
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

oldzey wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 11:49 am
U.S. equities on sale - yes, please! :beer
Sale is when equities fall below December 2018 lows. Still a long way to go.
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101028

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX ...
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

Hello guys, my plan to get back into the markets is via cash secured short PUTs. I have already sold 3 SPY Dec 2019 260 PUTs this week for around $8 in premium. My notional before I went into cash was about 200k, so I need to sell about another 5 PUTs. I guess, I will be happy buying back SPY at 260...
by revhappy
Tue May 28, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

Resurrecting this thread, after watching the current market action. Things have changed significantly since I created the thread. Mainly, we have gone from trade deal is imminent to escalation of trade war. So I am happy for getting out of the markets, but I underestimated the optimism of perma bull...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101028

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In 1968 S&P500 peaked at 739 and it was not until 1991 that, that level was breached. So if somehow you invested at the peak in 1968, your networth would become half by 1982 and wont recover until 20 years from the date of your investment. Is that risk many of us want to take? I can't figure out wh...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

I read this pretty detailed analysis from Nordea bank: https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/arti...hope-and-glory https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/48008/nordea-view-that-came-easy-now-bet-hard It is a bank, so it is not some small time permabear trying to sell doom. Most banks are always bullish a...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101028

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You realize, in 1996, valuations were the highest they had been in 70 years. They hadn't been that high since right before the Great Depression. It was OBVIOUS that stocks had to go lower. But they never did. Stocks have never been cheaper in the 23 years since. 1996, at the second highest valuatio...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

I am expecting the Dec 2018 lows to retested as a minimum and SPY going below 200 within the next 3 years. I am in 90% cash and my plan is to start getting back into equities once SPY goes below 250. If you believe that SPY is going below 200 within the next three years, why would you get back into...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

I am expecting the Dec 2018 lows to retested as a minimum and SPY going below 200 within the next 3 years. I am in 90% cash and my plan is to start getting back into equities once SPY goes below 250. Did you get back in in December when SPY went as low as 233? I loaded up on equities heavily(50%) i...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

but we get crowded out by 'stay the course' passive voice. What did you expect posting in a forum with Jack "stay the course" Bogle as a namesake? :D Jack Bogle himself gave a hint recently that returns in the next 10 years will be disappointing, if you invest at current valuations. That doesnt mea...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

It's good that you have a plan. What happens if the market keeps going up? Do you have a plan for that? What if the market goes up 50% from here? I assume your plan is stay in cash because then the market will be even MORE "over-valued", right? But if Dec 2018 lows are never retested, does that mea...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

If you want to time the market what the heck are you doing on this forum? :oops: I have seen people on this forum on various threads that have mentioned that they are timing the market. So there are people here who are doing it. I am just bringing them all together in one thread. In my view, I like...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Re: Market timers thread

Thesaints wrote:
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:37 pm
You don't accept market timers who think stocks are gonna go much higher ?
If you think stocks are going much higher, then you are fully invested or overweight, so you are no different than the buy and hold crowd in the current circumstances.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 223
Views: 17125

Market timers thread

Creating this thread specifically for people who are trying to time the markets and are in significant cash levels and underweight on equities. We have many similar threads on this forum but we get crowded out by 'stay the course' passive voice. So question: What is your plan? When do you plan to ge...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lets put it differently, the more the markets become overvalued, the higher that chances that they crash. Think of it like stretching a rubberband. You cannot stretch it forever, it will break at somepoint and the chances of it breaking are higher when you stretched it more than when you stretched ...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Here we go again. 19.8% or 20%, "bear" or "bull", whatever. Is anyone here making an investing decision based on how long it's been since the most recent "bear market"? I hope not. I certainly hope not as well. Part of the problem I perceive is that many believe that if a bull market goes on long e...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

limeyx wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
I sold everything around middle of Feb when SPY was 275. So I am still down on that trade. So atleast you beat one person, i.e. me.
by revhappy
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.
Replies: 109
Views: 8052

Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I for sure have some advice for you options.. play with them , learn them, market time them, love the ups and downs... make a goal to yourself, to play the money you earn from options, and then keep at it. I got burnt a bit by playing with TSLA options. Now I am more conservative. I am in 90% cash ...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year's worth of earnings in two months?
Replies: 69
Views: 7549

Re: Year's worth of earnings in two months?

StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:30 am
What are the tax implications?
I am fortunate to be a tax resident of a country that doesn't tax capital gains, interest income etc.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year's worth of earnings in two months?
Replies: 69
Views: 7549

Re: Year's worth of earnings in two months?

I am also in 90% cash. I sold 1 SPY 250 PUT expiring Dec 2019 yesterday for $8.50. This is cash secured. My plan for the rest of the year is on market falls sell enough PUTs and earn some extra income. If SPY indeed falls to 250, I will be glad to buy back SPY at that price.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77411

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

So I think you pick a metric and stick with it while holding your nose. Indeed. I find it interesting how to see how many people are quick to dismiss this and other trend following strategies due to short-term whipsaws and/or losses, but they have no problem with buy-and-hold deep drawdowns of -50%...
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am in 90% cash :) I hope central bankers don't bail out the equity investors this time, please. Let the markets plunge to whereever it wants to.
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77411

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks like market is whipsawing again on OP. I'm back in stocks, so I can't get whipsawed right now. A whipsaw is where you buy back into the market at a higher price than which you sold. But the market is tanking now. Since you are trend follower, if the market continues to fall, are you not going...
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77411

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks like market is whipsawing again on OP.
by revhappy
Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 18971

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

The best gardening advice is also the best investing advice. "The way to get ripe tomatoes is to go on vacation". Money for short term needs goes in CD's. Money for the long term goes in the market. Set it, forget it and enjoy your vacation. In gardening, there is a season for planting and then the...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 18971

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

And to revhappy @revhappy, You sound a bit unaware (and therefore conspiracy-theory-minded) about how markets function. You should do some serious reading of history and economics. Also, apply logic. It might also be beneficial for you to read up on how conspiracy theories function to counter and a...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 18971

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

Are you saying that the market is being manipulated by senior government, business, or banking officials? No, I am just saying that the establishment wants to see markets keep going up. The best example was what we saw from Oct 2018 to Feb 2019. Why has Fed completely gone from "we are going to hik...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 18971

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

I am also like OP, have 80% in fixed income 20% in equities. The reason, I cannot come to terms with passive investing, is because I cant believe making money in the market can be as easy as stay the course, set it and forget it. That sounds too good to be true. Also we saw how markets tanked in Dec...
by revhappy
Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5976

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

How long has Buffett had significant amounts of cash at Berkshire? Wouldn't he have done much better putting that in an broad stock market ETF? In a market crash, you can have 10 years worth of gains evaporate in a matter of months. So your question makes sense now. But remember at the depth of 200...
by revhappy
Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 5976

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

Why do we keep getting different PE numbers? Someone up thread mentioned forward valuations are cheap at 16, however I have seen other analysts mention current valuations are at levels seen during dot com bubble. So which is which? I like this article and kind of agree with it: https://www.marketwat...
by revhappy
Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77411

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

In an earlier response to the question of what to do if the investor owns the assets in a taxable account, you suggested holding to the assets and using future contracts. For those not familiar with this tool (like me), apart from what i read in the literature, I am very curious to know how you wou...
by revhappy
Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 77411

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

DOW back over 26,000. Been a rough couple months to be 0/100. I am patiently waiting for the signal to rejoin the stock (dark) side. Me too! I have significantly reduced my allocation to stocks, from 50% to 33%. The 33% is entirely international/Non-US and it is below water which is why I still did...
by revhappy
Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 128
Views: 14157

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Now earnings are expected to fall, due to fading tax cut effect, global slowdown related to trade war uncertainty or in general high rates now compared to few years ago. So earnings falling is a given. Hence S&P 500 should fall if it has to stay at the same valuation. If not it becomes even more ov...
by revhappy
Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 128
Views: 14157

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

This is the 20 years chart of S&P500 v/s earnings. https://i.imgur.com/3EZ069a.png Before Aug 2014, there was a gap between earnings and the S&P 500 and then as earnings fell, markets kept going up and the gap closed. Now earnings are expected to fall, due to fading tax cut effect, global slowdown r...
by revhappy
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 8853

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

Thanks everyone for your responses. The thing is I got into this game very late and my conviction is not as high as you guys. This is the 20 years chart of S&P500 v/s earnings. https://i.imgur.com/3EZ069a.png Before Aug 2014, there was a gap between earnings and the S&P 500 and then as earnings fell...
by revhappy
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 8853

Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

The December plunge was brutal and to rub salt on injury, lots of experts said cash is an asset class that will now compete with equities. So now that the markets have reverted back to their early December 2018 levels, are you feeling like getting into cash, or have already gotten into cash? Just wa...
by revhappy
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I used to always have very low allocation, of 17-35%. I am 39 years old. But in 2017 Aug, I started ramping it up reached 50% right at the peak in around Oct 2018 and in Dec when markets tanked, I didnt have courage to add anymore, but I didnt sell anything either. After watching my networth drop s...
by revhappy
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wow - HUGE drop of 1.2%..... What a joke. Haven't we all known that Retail has been sinking for a while? SMH - It never ceases to amaze me how something such as this can cause a panic. Many small things add up, Germany gdp growth came in at 0%. The whole world is slowing down. It is just a matter o...
by revhappy
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I sold about 5% of my portfolio in equities yesterday. I was 50% allocated and now I am 45%. I wondering if I should sell SPY 250 PUTs for Dec 2019, it gives me 3.5% additional yield and if markets goes that low, I am ok buying back what I sold for 275. Any thoughts? Sounds to me like market timing...
by revhappy
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I sold about 5% of my portfolio in equities yesterday. I was 50% allocated and now I am 45%. I wondering if I should sell SPY 250 PUTs for Dec 2019, it gives me 3.5% additional yield and if markets goes that low, I am ok buying back what I sold for 275. Any thoughts?
by revhappy
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2530
Views: 466767

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Hey guys,

I prepared this bar chart to show progression of my networth. Let me know what you think

All figures are in SGD '000

Image
by revhappy
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132107

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Einhorn's Greenlight hedgefund is down 34% this year. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-01/david-einhorn-closes-2018-down-34-his-worst-year-record A year in which hedgefunds, who are supposed to cushion down markets fell so much, I think we can take solace that our buy and hold strategy is not ...
by revhappy
Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2530
Views: 466767

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I hope the people posting here are using total return rather than net asset value as their metric. Many posting here are using change in total value of portfolio including new contributions, using "Beardstown Ladies" accounting, and sometimes explicitly say so. I keep it simple. I track my monthly ...
by revhappy
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5673

Re: Emerging market bonds as part of your equity allocation

I think I am a candidate for the title of the thread. I am currently 50:50 allocated to Equity ETFs and fixed income. The equity ETFs match MSCI ACWI allocation. The fixed income however is entirely in fixed deposits in Indian rupees. The interest rate is around 7%. But Indian rupee is susceptible t...
by revhappy
Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5673

Re: Emerging market bonds as part of your equity allocation

Just bear in mind that the EM bond index doesn't represent the EM universe correctly. For example India is not part of the index. Argentina is over represented. I use Vanguard's active fund in this area (VEMBX) which does have a bit of India. But one of the neat things about the asset class is that...
by revhappy
Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5673

Re: Emerging market bonds as part of your equity allocation

Just bear in mind that the EM bond index doesn't represent the EM universe correctly. For example India is not part of the index. Argentina is over represented.
by revhappy
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2530
Views: 466767

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Not as bad as feared. Down 1.88% with no contributions. Moved to about 60% cash two months ago, on newsletter advice (Investech). T.Rowe Price health sciences has done the heavy lifting for me. Wow, that's interesting, so a research firm's newsletter helped you save tons of money by going defensive...
by revhappy
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1091
Views: 308516

Re: What is your Year 2018 networth change?

I agree that posting your assets is unusual. Year isn't over yet. Overall my investments (which don't include our homes), is down 2.06% YTD through yesterday. Umm.. why is that? Don't many of the bloggers especially the early retirement ones post their networth? Mr Money Moustache comes to my mind.