Search found 82 matches

by revhappy
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3266
Views: 560094

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

As of close on Friday, we were up 50.84% (about 3% of that is contributions). 100% stock, heavily in techs. We also made a timely stock sale in February after getting too heavy in AMZN and held that in cash until mid March when we bought more VIGAX. We've been investing for 13 years and, oddly enou...
by revhappy
Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3266
Views: 560094

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I am flat for the year excluding new savings. Including new savings I am up 6% :|
by revhappy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3266
Views: 560094

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

In INR terms, networth up 2.43% for the year, but without including salary savings inflow, it is down 1.61%
In USD terms INR 527 Lakhs = $700k
Image
by revhappy
Sat May 30, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3266
Views: 560094

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Here is mine YTD Networth and Investment growth chart.
All figures in '000 Singapore dollars

https://i.imgur.com/IPjBnEs.png
by revhappy
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3266
Views: 560094

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My YTD investment growth is -7% and YTD Networth growth is -4%. Current allocation to equities 44%.
by revhappy
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10752
Views: 845200

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Hopefully we won’t return to the rampant, wasteful materialistic ways of recent times, but I suspect things will very quickly return to normal. Not sure exactly what you mean. But I am assuming you mean, people will be more responsible in their spending habits? My view is that people who spend a lo...
by revhappy
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 349
Views: 30261

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Kompass wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm -$2.2m

Ouch! :shock: deer in the headlights

Nuff said.

Thank the powers it’s paper and I have cash.

For once procrastinating actually paid off…
You mean paper trading account or paper losses as in unrealized losses?
by revhappy
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18577

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

OP, the Dow Jones has already moved from 30k to 19k, more than 36% fall. Now 19k to 15k sounds big i.e another 20% fall from here. But you should look at 30k as the base. From 30k to 15k, is only another 15% fall. You have already experienced the worst and now as the index falls more and more, the i...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The most common method I see is 5% absolute bands. For 80/20 to go to 64/36 would require a 56% market decline. Even higher if new money was going into equities during the drop. In that case one may never rebalance, and maybe that's the right thing to do. Under the 20% deviation method, where does ...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yes, I think you're both right. Do I just do what I said, max tax advantaged accounts to portfolio AA and stop taxable investment to beef up emergency fund over the next several months or a year, or make any moves now? Do I contribute 401k to bonds or cash to beef up my cash/emergency but still fil...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yes, I think you're both right. Do I just do what I said, max tax advantaged accounts to portfolio AA and stop taxable investment to beef up emergency fund over the next several months or a year, or make any moves now? Do I contribute 401k to bonds or cash to beef up my cash/emergency but still fil...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

No, exactly the opposite. I'm not sure why you are confused. I did an excellent job of assessing need, willingness, and ability to take risk. I balanced growth and safety. I was prepared for a 50% crash, even a 90% crash.. Nothing changes if it recovers within 10 years. I won't have my ideal retire...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yes, I think you're both right. Do I just do what I said, max tax advantaged accounts to portfolio AA and stop taxable investment to beef up emergency fund over the next several months or a year, or make any moves now? Do I contribute 401k to bonds or cash to beef up my cash/emergency but still fil...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 349
Views: 30261

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Haven’t read every post, so this point has probably been anticipated, but when calculating your gain or loss loss it’s best to do it off the avearage cost basis of your shares rather than the absolute peak quote you hit on paper at the tiptop high. That gives a better read on what you’ve actually w...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

That's possible. It's always difficult to be confident about what the market has and has not accounted for, and this difficulty is even greater now, IMHO. But I still have a hard time believing that a ~30% decline from the market peak is enough to account for the unemployment rate easily doubling, ...
by revhappy
Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My Portfolio Seeking Advice [India]
Replies: 30
Views: 1685

Re: My Portfolio Seeking Advice [India]

I am not earning in Dollars just mentioning it so BogleHeads don't get confused. I understand that. Your allocation to stocks is too low given your age. The reason is probably because you are hamstrung with bad choice of Indian equities and having to jump through hoops to invest in International. B...
by revhappy
Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

So question: What is your plan? When do you plan to get back into equities? I am expecting the Dec 2018 lows to retested as a minimum and SPY going below 200 within the next 3 years. I am in 90% cash and my plan is to start getting back into equities once SPY goes below 250. How's your thought proc...
by revhappy
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My Portfolio Seeking Advice [India]
Replies: 30
Views: 1685

Re: My Portfolio Seeking Advice [India]

[Post merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Country of Residence: India International Lifestyle: Tourist for Few Days. Permanent Residency is India. Currency: 40,00,000 INR (56,120 USD) Emergency funds:Savings Account 12,000 INR (168.36 USD) Debt: None Age: 20-30 40% Stocks 20% Gold 40% Go...
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 125607

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX...
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

oldzey wrote: Fri May 31, 2019 11:49 am U.S. equities on sale - yes, please! :beer
Sale is when equities fall below December 2018 lows. Still a long way to go.
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 125607

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

OP must be really smiling right now :) How many people believe markets will see a new high this year? Just one month back most people were happy predicting SPX at 3000. Now, we have no China deal and we have a trade war with Mexico. OP, what is your target for SPX for this year? I am predicting SPX ...
by revhappy
Fri May 31, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

Hello guys, my plan to get back into the markets is via cash secured short PUTs. I have already sold 3 SPY Dec 2019 260 PUTs this week for around $8 in premium. My notional before I went into cash was about 200k, so I need to sell about another 5 PUTs. I guess, I will be happy buying back SPY at 260...
by revhappy
Tue May 28, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

Resurrecting this thread, after watching the current market action. Things have changed significantly since I created the thread. Mainly, we have gone from trade deal is imminent to escalation of trade war. So I am happy for getting out of the markets, but I underestimated the optimism of perma bull...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 125607

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In 1968 S&P500 peaked at 739 and it was not until 1991 that, that level was breached. So if somehow you invested at the peak in 1968, your networth would become half by 1982 and wont recover until 20 years from the date of your investment. Is that risk many of us want to take? I can't figure ou...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

I read this pretty detailed analysis from Nordea bank: https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/arti...hope-and-glory https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/48008/nordea-view-that-came-easy-now-bet-hard It is a bank, so it is not some small time permabear trying to sell doom. Most banks are always bullish a...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 125607

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

You realize, in 1996, valuations were the highest they had been in 70 years. They hadn't been that high since right before the Great Depression. It was OBVIOUS that stocks had to go lower. But they never did. Stocks have never been cheaper in the 23 years since. 1996, at the second highest valuatio...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

I am expecting the Dec 2018 lows to retested as a minimum and SPY going below 200 within the next 3 years. I am in 90% cash and my plan is to start getting back into equities once SPY goes below 250. If you believe that SPY is going below 200 within the next three years, why would you get back into...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

I am expecting the Dec 2018 lows to retested as a minimum and SPY going below 200 within the next 3 years. I am in 90% cash and my plan is to start getting back into equities once SPY goes below 250. Did you get back in in December when SPY went as low as 233? I loaded up on equities heavily(50%) i...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

but we get crowded out by 'stay the course' passive voice. What did you expect posting in a forum with Jack "stay the course" Bogle as a namesake? :D Jack Bogle himself gave a hint recently that returns in the next 10 years will be disappointing, if you invest at current valuations. That ...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

It's good that you have a plan. What happens if the market keeps going up? Do you have a plan for that? What if the market goes up 50% from here? I assume your plan is stay in cash because then the market will be even MORE "over-valued", right? But if Dec 2018 lows are never retested, doe...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

If you want to time the market what the heck are you doing on this forum? :oops: I have seen people on this forum on various threads that have mentioned that they are timing the market. So there are people here who are doing it. I am just bringing them all together in one thread. In my view, I like...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Re: Market timers thread

Thesaints wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:37 pm You don't accept market timers who think stocks are gonna go much higher ?
If you think stocks are going much higher, then you are fully invested or overweight, so you are no different than the buy and hold crowd in the current circumstances.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 301
Views: 24459

Market timers thread

Creating this thread specifically for people who are trying to time the markets and are in significant cash levels and underweight on equities. We have many similar threads on this forum but we get crowded out by 'stay the course' passive voice. So question: What is your plan? When do you plan to ge...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lets put it differently, the more the markets become overvalued, the higher that chances that they crash. Think of it like stretching a rubberband. You cannot stretch it forever, it will break at somepoint and the chances of it breaking are higher when you stretched it more than when you stretched ...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Here we go again. 19.8% or 20%, "bear" or "bull", whatever. Is anyone here making an investing decision based on how long it's been since the most recent "bear market"? I hope not. I certainly hope not as well. Part of the problem I perceive is that many believe that i...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

limeyx wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
DonIce wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
walletless wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.
Just sold everything
I sold everything around middle of Feb when SPY was 275. So I am still down on that trade. So atleast you beat one person, i.e. me.
by revhappy
Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.
Replies: 109
Views: 8509

Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

I for sure have some advice for you options.. play with them , learn them, market time them, love the ups and downs... make a goal to yourself, to play the money you earn from options, and then keep at it. I got burnt a bit by playing with TSLA options. Now I am more conservative. I am in 90% cash ...
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year's worth of earnings in two months?
Replies: 69
Views: 7793

Re: Year's worth of earnings in two months?

StandingRock wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:30 am What are the tax implications?
I am fortunate to be a tax resident of a country that doesn't tax capital gains, interest income etc.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year's worth of earnings in two months?
Replies: 69
Views: 7793

Re: Year's worth of earnings in two months?

I am also in 90% cash. I sold 1 SPY 250 PUT expiring Dec 2019 yesterday for $8.50. This is cash secured. My plan for the rest of the year is on market falls sell enough PUTs and earn some extra income. If SPY indeed falls to 250, I will be glad to buy back SPY at that price.
by revhappy
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 125658

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

So I think you pick a metric and stick with it while holding your nose. Indeed. I find it interesting how to see how many people are quick to dismiss this and other trend following strategies due to short-term whipsaws and/or losses, but they have no problem with buy-and-hold deep drawdowns of -50%...
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20768
Views: 2837202

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I am in 90% cash :) I hope central bankers don't bail out the equity investors this time, please. Let the markets plunge to whereever it wants to.
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 125658

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks like market is whipsawing again on OP. I'm back in stocks, so I can't get whipsawed right now. A whipsaw is where you buy back into the market at a higher price than which you sold. But the market is tanking now. Since you are trend follower, if the market continues to fall, are you not going...
by revhappy
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 125658

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Looks like market is whipsawing again on OP.
by revhappy
Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 19605

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

The best gardening advice is also the best investing advice. "The way to get ripe tomatoes is to go on vacation". Money for short term needs goes in CD's. Money for the long term goes in the market. Set it, forget it and enjoy your vacation. In gardening, there is a season for planting an...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 19605

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

And to revhappy @revhappy, You sound a bit unaware (and therefore conspiracy-theory-minded) about how markets function. You should do some serious reading of history and economics. Also, apply logic. It might also be beneficial for you to read up on how conspiracy theories function to counter and a...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 19605

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

Are you saying that the market is being manipulated by senior government, business, or banking officials? No, I am just saying that the establishment wants to see markets keep going up. The best example was what we saw from Oct 2018 to Feb 2019. Why has Fed completely gone from "we are going t...
by revhappy
Sun Mar 03, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now
Replies: 207
Views: 19605

Re: Lots of cash .. Scared to put it to work now

I am also like OP, have 80% in fixed income 20% in equities. The reason, I cannot come to terms with passive investing, is because I cant believe making money in the market can be as easy as stay the course, set it and forget it. That sounds too good to be true. Also we saw how markets tanked in Dec...
by revhappy
Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 6252

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

How long has Buffett had significant amounts of cash at Berkshire? Wouldn't he have done much better putting that in an broad stock market ETF? In a market crash, you can have 10 years worth of gains evaporate in a matter of months. So your question makes sense now. But remember at the depth of 200...
by revhappy
Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Cash Position
Replies: 71
Views: 6252

Re: Buffet's Cash Position

Why do we keep getting different PE numbers? Someone up thread mentioned forward valuations are cheap at 16, however I have seen other analysts mention current valuations are at levels seen during dot com bubble. So which is which? I like this article and kind of agree with it: https://www.marketwat...